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12 Targeting is inherently estimative and anticipatory. Matching actions and effects to targets requires estimating and anticipating future outcomes. In some cases the outcome is straightforward, such as anticipating that disabling a fire control radar will put a surface-to-air missile battery out of action. In most cases, however, estimation is more complicated. Many factors contribute to successful targeting. IPB should yield insight on the enemy and his intentions. Target system analysis yields understanding of how components of the enemy system interact and how the system functions as a whole. ISR assets gather needed data and help improve the accuracy and extent of estimation. Such analyses enable planners to select targets and methods of affecting them that increase the probability of desired outcomes and make the most efficient use of limited air and space resources. This does not imply perfect knowledge or anticipation; uncertainty and friction still apply. Targeting is systematic. In supporting the commander’s objectives, the targeting process seeks to achieve effects in a systematic manner. Targeting, like the other processes that it complements, is a rational, iterative process that methodically analyzes, prioritizes, and assigns forces against adversary targets to achieve the effects needed to meet campaign objectives. If the desired effects are not achieved, targets are “recycled” through the tasking process, or different targets are selected. The principles set forth above establish a broad framework on which the targeting discipline should build. To put them in proper context, however, one must understand what targets are and how they are prosecuted, as well as what targeting responsibilities the commander of air and space forces has. The sections below describe targets, the two basic types of targeting, and commanders’ responsibilities, all of which are explored further in the following chapters. EFFECTS-BASED APPROACH TO OPERATIONS To understand how targeting forms one pillar of a flexible system that can accommodate many different strategies and achieve a wide variety of objectives through a wide variety of means, it is first necessary to understand the effects-based approach and how targeting fits within it. We are running an effects-based campaign that is partially kinetic, partially non-kinetic, partially information operations. And so what we judge effectiveness by is not just whether there is a hole in the room of a building, but whether or not the function that the element did before ceases to be effective. —Maj Gen Stanley A. McChrystal Vice Director of Operations, Joint Staff Dept. of Defense news conference on Operation IRAQI FREEDOM, 22 March 2003