AFDD 2-1.9, page 43

33 development efforts can frequently force refinement of desired effects or even objectives, especially if weaponeering and allocation efforts indicate that a particular targeting avenue of approach is impractical. Target development efforts also frequently reach forward to influence weaponeering and allocation choices, dynamic targeting during execution, and the assessment process. The results of detailed target development are often stored in target system studies, individual target folders and targeting databases that can be studied by all levels of command and used in future target development efforts. Target Analysis takes the desired effects determined during planning or the first phase of the tasking cycle and matches them to specific targets. This analysis looks at the importance of various potential targets as enablers of enemy capabilities, as critical elements within enemy systems, or as potential trigger points for desired enemy behavior changes. There are many means available to accomplish this. Two of the most common that have been used in the past are target system and critical node analysis. Target system analysis (TSA), as its name implies, approaches targets and target sets as systems to determine vulnerabilities and exploitable weaknesses. Targeteers review how a functional target system works as a whole and analyze the interactions between components. TSA takes a system-of-systems approach to look at interdependencies and vulnerabilities between systems as well as intra-system dependencies in order to maximize the effectiveness of target development. TSA begins in peacetime, before the commencement of conflict, and is accomplished with federated support and “reachback” (see Chapter Five and Appendix B). As part of a comprehensive system-of-systems analysis (SOSA) approach, TSA focuses on one or more of the many “functional target systems” identified in Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) handbooks within a particular theater, such as infrastructure targets across a whole region or nation (like electrical power or petroleum, oil, and lubricants [POL] production), or non-infrastructure systems such as financial networks. SOSA seeks to find nodes common to more than one system, focusing on the interactions and interrelationships between system elements, in order to determine their degree and points of interdependence and to discern linkages between their functions. The ultimate goal of TSA is to find critical nodes and vulnerabilities that, if disrupted or affected in a specific manner, create effects that achieve the commander’s objectives. The analysis performed in target development proceeds through successively greater levels of detail, flowing from the macro (broad scope) level to the micro (narrowly focused) level. This winnowing approach is essential to preserve the linkage between desired effects and objectives and the specific actions that are taken against particular targets. It determines the necessary type, breadth, and duration of action that must be exerted on each target to generate effects that are consistent with the commander’s objectives.