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Chapter 3 3-6. Basic structured analytic techniques are the starting point for most analysis and are unlikely to provide an answer to intelligence challenges on their own. However, they will provide insight that will support problem solving. The techniques will improve assessments by making them more rigorous, improve the presentation of the finished intelligence in a persuasive manner, and provide ways to measure progress as well as identify what might be missing. 3-7. The following are basic structured analytic techniques: e Sorting. @ = Matrices. © = Threat intentions matrix. e Event mapping. e Event trees. © Subjective probability. © Weighted ranking. SORTING 3-8. Sorting is a basic structuring technique for grouping information to develop insight to facilitate analysis. Facts 3-9. Sorting is effective when information elements can be broken out into categories or subcategories for comparison using an automated computer program, such as a spreadsheet. This technique is most useful for reviewing massive data stores that pertain to an intelligence challenge. Sorting also aids in the review of multiple categories of information that when broken down into components can present possible trends, similarities, differences, or other insights not readily identifiable. Sorting can be used at any stage and is particularly effective during initial data gathering and hypothesis generation. 3-10. Sorting massive amounts of data can provide insights into trends or abnormalities that warrant further analysis and that otherwise would go unnoticed. This technique can highlight new or additional analytic insights within an old intelligence problem or a new one. Sorting data before you begin analyzing transactions, such as communications intelligence or transfers of goods, is very helpful. 3-11. Improper sorting can hide valuable insights as easily as illuminating them. Standardizing the data being sorted is imperative. Working with an analyst with experience in sorting can avoid this pitfall in most cases. The following are examples of sorting. Sorting Examples Example 1: Are local tribal leaders pro-U.S., anti-U.S., or neutral on their attitudes towards U.S. policy in the Middle East? Sort the leaders by factors determined to give insight into the issue, such as birthplace, ethnicity, religion and religious sect, level of professional education, foreign military or civilian or university exchange training (where or when), political influences in life, political decisions made, have U.S. forces negatively or positively affected their tribe. Then review the information to see if any parallels exist between the categories. Example 2: Data from cell phone communications among five conspirators is reviewed to determine the frequency of calls, the patterns in calls to discover the key communicator, any pattern in the change in frequency of calls prior to a planned activity, and dates and times of calls. 3-2 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 Chapter 3 3-2 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 3-6. Basic structured analytic techniques are the starting point for most analysis and are unlikely to provide an answer to intelligence challenges on their own. However, they will provide insight that will support problem solving. The techniques will improve assessments by making them more rigorous, improve the presentation of the finished intelligence in a persuasive manner, and provide ways to measure progress as well as identify what might be missing. 3-7. The following are basic structured analytic techniques:  Sorting.  Matrices.  Threat intentions matrix.  Event mapping.  Event trees.  Subjective probability.  Weighted ranking. SORTING 3-8. Sorting is a basic structuring technique for grouping information to develop insight to facilitate analysis. FACTS 3-9. Sorting is effective when information elements can be broken out into categories or subcategories for comparison using an automated computer program, such as a spreadsheet. This technique is most useful for reviewing massive data stores that pertain to an intelligence challenge. Sorting also aids in the review of multiple categories of information that when broken down into components can present possible trends, similarities, differences, or other insights not readily identifiable. Sorting can be used at any stage and is particularly effective during initial data gathering and hypothesis generation. 3-10. Sorting massive amounts of data can provide insights into trends or abnormalities that warrant further analysis and that otherwise would go unnoticed. This technique can highlight new or additional analytic insights within an old intelligence problem or a new one. Sorting data before you begin analyzing transactions, such as communications intelligence or transfers of goods, is very helpful. 3-11. Improper sorting can hide valuable insights as easily as illuminating them. Standardizing the data being sorted is imperative. Working with an analyst with experience in sorting can avoid this pitfall in most cases. The following are examples of sorting. Sorting Examples Example 1: Are local tribal leaders pro-U.S., anti-U.S., or neutral on their attitudes towards U.S. policy in the Middle East? Sort the leaders by factors determined to give insight into the issue, such as birthplace, ethnicity, religion and religious sect, level of professional education, foreign military or civilian or university exchange training (where or when), political influences in life, political decisions made, have U.S. forces negatively or positively affected their tribe. Then review the information to see if any parallels exist between the categories. Example 2: Data from cell phone communications among five conspirators is reviewed to determine the frequency of calls, the patterns in calls to discover the key communicator, any pattern in the change in frequency of calls prior to a planned activity, and dates and times of calls.