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Military manual ATP 2-33.4 Page 42 of 146 text: ocr+pdf

ATP 2-33.4, page 42

Intelligence Analysis

Army Techniques Publication: Intelligence Analysis

2014 public edition (Archive.org)

Page 42 of ATP 2-33.4
Searchable page text (OCR / PDF)
Chapter 3 = Start with the first criterion in the list and compare it to the second criterion. Place a mark (| or ||) next to the criterion selected as the more important between the two. = Compare the first criterion with the third. Again mark the more important of the two. Once the first criterion has been ranked against all of the others, go to the second criterion and compare it with the third, placing a mark next to the one judged most important. = Rank the second criterion with the fourth, and so on until it has been ranked against the remaining criteria on the list. The second and succeeding criteria are not ranked against criteria on the list shown above them because that was accomplished when those criteria were going through the process. = Count the marks or votes for each criterion on the list and write the total to the right of the criterion and marks. = Review the totals of each criterion and determine how many of the listed criteria to use in the weighted ranking matrix. Mark these criteria with an asterisk. Note that more than five or six criteria rarely provide sufficient difference to be worth the time and expertise. = Continue to rank each criterion with those below it on the list until the list is completed. e@ Step 4. Divide the number of votes received by each selected criterion by the total number of votes for all selected criteria. (For example, if the total number of votes for the selected criteria is 15 and the first criterion received 5 votes, divide 5 by 15 to get 33 percent; and the second criterion received 4 votes, then divide 4 by 15 to get 27 percent [rounded up 26.7 percent to the next full number], and so on, through the selected criteria. Make sure the total of the percent for the criteria adds up to exactly 100 percent by rounding off the figures as required.) e Step 5. Enter the criteria in the options matrix as column headings starting with the second column. Note that the first column heading is Options. Include the percentage for each criterion with it in the column heading. The order that the criteria are entered is not important, but confusion can be avoided if the criterion with the largest percentage is entered in the first column. and the remainder added in descending order. e@ Step 6. Pair-rank the options based on the first criteria from the point of view of the threat decisionmaker. The pair-ranking is accomplished exactly like the procedure used in step 4 to rank the criteria. = Compare the first option with the second option and determine which option most meets the criteria. = Then place a mark (1 or X) in the box at the intersection for best option for the criteria. = After pair-ranking all the options for the first criterion, move to the second criterion (column) and pair-rank all of the options against that criterion, and so on, until all criteria are used to pair-rank the options. e@ Step 7. Count the number of marks (votes) in each square in the matrix under the criteria and write the number in the square. Then multiple the number by the weight of the criteria (the percentage listed with the criterion at the top of the column). Write the product (result of the multiplication) in the square as well. e@ Step 8. Once all squares with marks have been multiplied by the percentage for that criterion and placed in the appropriate square, add the product (result of the multiplication) in each square for each option (row). That is, add all of the final numbers in each square across the row and place the total in the final column for that option (row). This number can be larger than | (for example, 2.58). The row with the largest total is the most likely option. 3-51. End the weighted ranking review by performing a sanity check of the results and review the impact of the weighted criteria on the final result. This review should provide the insight needed to present the results in a clear and persuasive manner to customers. 3-52. The following can assist when using weighted ranking: e@ Use a different color for each criteria and alternative during the pair-ranking to make the choices transparent (easy to review or recreate). e = Ata minimum, it will provide insight to the analyst on the interaction of the criteria from the point of view of the threat decisionmaker. 3-12 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 Chapter 3 3-12 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014  Start with the first criterion in the list and compare it to the second criterion. Place a mark ( or ) next to the criterion selected as the more important between the two.  Compare the first criterion with the third. Again mark the more important of the two. Once the first criterion has been ranked against all of the others, go to the second criterion and compare it with the third, placing a mark next to the one judged most important.  Rank the second criterion with the fourth, and so on until it has been ranked against the remaining criteria on the list. The second and succeeding criteria are not ranked against criteria on the list shown above them because that was accomplished when those criteria were going through the process.  Count the marks or votes for each criterion on the list and write the total to the right of the criterion and marks.  Review the totals of each criterion and determine how many of the listed criteria to use in the weighted ranking matrix. Mark these criteria with an asterisk. Note that more than five or six criteria rarely provide sufficient difference to be worth the time and expertise.  Continue to rank each criterion with those below it on the list until the list is completed.  Step 4. Divide the number of votes received by each selected criterion by the total number of votes for all selected criteria. (For example, if the total number of votes for the selected criteria is 15 and the first criterion received 5 votes, divide 5 by 15 to get 33 percent; and the second criterion received 4 votes, then divide 4 by 15 to get 27 percent [rounded up 26.7 percent to the next full number], and so on, through the selected criteria. Make sure the total of the percent for the criteria adds up to exactly 100 percent by rounding off the figures as required.)  Step 5. Enter the criteria in the options matrix as column headings starting with the second column. Note that the first column heading is Options. Include the percentage for each criterion with it in the column heading. The order that the criteria are entered is not important, but confusion can be avoided if the criterion with the largest percentage is entered in the first column and the remainder added in descending order.  Step 6. Pair-rank the options based on the first criteria from the point of view of the threat decisionmaker. The pair-ranking is accomplished exactly like the procedure used in step 4 to rank the criteria.  Compare the first option with the second option and determine which option most meets the criteria.  Then place a mark (l or X) in the box at the intersection for best option for the criteria.  After pair-ranking all the options for the first criterion, move to the second criterion (column) and pair-rank all of the options against that criterion, and so on, until all criteria are used to pair-rank the options.  Step 7. Count the number of marks (votes) in each square in the matrix under the criteria and write the number in the square. Then multiple the number by the weight of the criteria (the percentage listed with the criterion at the top of the column). Write the product (result of the multiplication) in the square as well.  Step 8. Once all squares with marks have been multiplied by the percentage for that criterion and placed in the appropriate square, add the product (result of the multiplication) in each square for each option (row). That is, add all of the final numbers in each square across the row and place the total in the final column for that option (row). This number can be larger than 1 (for example, 2.58). The row with the largest total is the most likely option. 3-51. End the weighted ranking review by performing a sanity check of the results and review the impact of the weighted criteria on the final result. This review should provide the insight needed to present the results in a clear and persuasive manner to customers. 3-52. The following can assist when using weighted ranking:  Use a different color for each criteria and alternative during the pair-ranking to make the choices transparent (easy to review or recreate).  At a minimum, it will provide insight to the analyst on the interaction of the criteria from the point of view of the threat decisionmaker.