ATP 2-33.4, page 45

Chapter 4 Diagnostic Analytic Techniques This chapter discusses the diagnostic analytic techniques routinely used by intelligence analysts. It discusses in detail the common techniques of deception detection, key assumptions check, quality of information check, indicators, and conducting studies. OVERVIEW 4-1. The primary purpose of diagnostic techniques is to make analytic arguments, assumptions, and/or intelligence gaps more transparent. 4-2. The following techniques have been used at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels for some time and are routinely used by intelligence personnel conducting intelligence analysis. The following are the diagnostic analytic techniques discussed in this chapter: © Deception detection. © Key assumptions check. © Quality of information check. e Indicators. 4-3. Diagnostic techniques are often used in association with most other analytic techniques discussed in this manual to further strengthen the analytic assessments and conclusions. DECEPTION DETECTION 4-4. Deception is a threat action to influence the perceptions, decisions, or actions of another to the advantage of the threat. Deception detection is a set of checklists that analysts can use to help them determine when to look for deception, discover whether deception actually is present, and figure out what to do to avoid deception. 4-5. Historically, intelligence analysis has been vulnerable to deception. In reality, analysts seldom check for deception even when there is a well-known history of its use. Experienced analysts realize they cannot assume all collected information is valid, but few know how to factor such concerns effectively into their daily work practices. If an analyst accepts that some of the information may be deliberately deceptive, this puts a significant cognitive burden on the analyst. Facts 4-6. Although deception detection is time consuming, analysts should be concerned about the use of deception when the threat would have a lot to gain by denying or manipulating information collection systems and analysts. Deception detection is an effective tool to assist in validating information collected as well as other conclusions and assessments drawn using other techniques. 4-7. When trying to evaluate the information that is present to derive intentions or COAs, analysts have to consider if this information is real or if it is a deception campaign to redirect the collection efforts or push to other conclusions. 4-8. Attempting deception detection can strengthen analysis and reinforce effectiveness of other analytic techniques. There may be times when analysts will place too much confidence in the effectiveness of other techniques if they have not considered the possibility of deception. 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 41 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 4-1 Chapter 4 Diagnostic Analytic Techniques This chapter discusses the diagnostic analytic techniques routinely used by intelligence analysts. It discusses in detail the common techniques of deception detection, key assumptions check, quality of information check, indicators, and conducting studies. OVERVIEW 4-1. The primary purpose of diagnostic techniques is to make analytic arguments, assumptions, and/or intelligence gaps more transparent. 4-2. The following techniques have been used at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels for some time and are routinely used by intelligence personnel conducting intelligence analysis. The following are the diagnostic analytic techniques discussed in this chapter:  Deception detection.  Key assumptions check.  Quality of information check.  Indicators. 4-3. Diagnostic techniques are often used in association with most other analytic techniques discussed in this manual to further strengthen the analytic assessments and conclusions. DECEPTION DETECTION 4-4. Deception is a threat action to influence the perceptions, decisions, or actions of another to the advantage of the threat. Deception detection is a set of checklists that analysts can use to help them determine when to look for deception, discover whether deception actually is present, and figure out what to do to avoid deception. 4-5. Historically, intelligence analysis has been vulnerable to deception. In reality, analysts seldom check for deception even when there is a well-known history of its use. Experienced analysts realize they cannot assume all collected information is valid, but few know how to factor such concerns effectively into their daily work practices. If an analyst accepts that some of the information may be deliberately deceptive, this puts a significant cognitive burden on the analyst. FACTS 4-6. Although deception detection is time consuming, analysts should be concerned about the use of deception when the threat would have a lot to gain by denying or manipulating information collection systems and analysts. Deception detection is an effective tool to assist in validating information collected as well as other conclusions and assessments drawn using other techniques. 4-7. When trying to evaluate the information that is present to derive intentions or COAs, analysts have to consider if this information is real or if it is a deception campaign to redirect the collection efforts or push to other conclusions. 4-8. Attempting deception detection can strengthen analysis and reinforce effectiveness of other analytic techniques. There may be times when analysts will place too much confidence in the effectiveness of other techniques if they have not considered the possibility of deception.