ATP 2-33.4, page 5

Contents Figures Figure: 2-1... The Glaments‘OF thOUGMS. sic ccscccaenceseeraeccectoncss tan snenareneanenreenneatersarwaneecsssascrearensns OD, Figure 3-1. Matrix example ..............ccccecsceses cscs cs eseeeeeeeseseeeecscseeseneeseneseacacanetecscsessesneseeteraesnas OU Figure 3-2. Threat intention matrix ............ceeeeseseceeeseseseeeececseeeeneeeeseeeecscseetetenseetesaesetetensese OOO Figure 3-3. Example of event mapping ............2.0...:c:ccceceseseseeceeeeseseereeseeeeeseeeeseeseseeneeeees OO Figuré:3=4.. Event tee OxaMple .i..:c.ccccccccsseices ces cictenaterscisanveteinerasiinaaanaraceciennesennececed OM Figure 3-5. Subjective probability example .................. cc cscsees este eeeeeeeeeeceeeteteeeeeeeteteeeeeeeeeeee OOD Figure 3-6. Weighted ranking example ..............2.:cscseeseeeeseseseeeeeeeeeeesesesseatetseseeteneneeeeeeee OUTS Figure 5-1. Matrix comparing courses Of ACtiOn 2.0.0.0... cece eee ce ee eeeeeseseseeteteeseseeneneeneeeeeeeee M4 Figuré'5=2.. COMPAriSON Of tAlGGlS wicccocsisissss oes scenes rnaenct BD Figuré:5-3.. EXAmple association Maitix: ..0cc.csceceracctsecseceseninaran cer nerecunee censescranee nr OOO: Figure 5-4. Example activities matrix 0.20.0... cece cece cece eeeeeeeeseetececscaeeneeeeeeatacetasetenseeeeees OOD Figure 5-5: Example link diagram ves2cssiscnnnnn annie cncnguwamaancicnnn 5-13 Figure 5-6. Nodal linkage example.....................0.c:ccsceceesceseeseseesesseseeeseeseseeteseeeseeeenensee ree OMG Figuire:5-7... His rarchicAalOrganiZaliOny..cccccccccssccecasaesttencceserennnenerenensteccerssensasaenecseventesensane OO Figure 5-8. Networked organization and structural options example ................2:0:0:eeee O18 Figure 5-9. Network Chain ...............c.cccscsccscsee cece ceeeeeeseeeseeeececeeeteneeseseesacecsnaratscsesteseeseeereeee O919 Figure 5-10. Network hub-and-wheel ...............e es eseeceeeseeeececseeteneseseseesececseatersesteseneeseeees 919 Figuré:5-1:1.-Al- Channel Network... :c.ccccccccseecnscescteerarecisanvetanisereensnanerraanen OLD Figure 5-12. Affiliated associate MetWOFk «0.2... eeeeeesteeeeseseseeeeceeeeeeseuescatetetscseeteteeeseeses 0°20 Figure 5-13. Centrality example oo... cece eee eeeeeeeeeeeseeeeeeeseseeneeneneesacesseetetetetsteneneeeseenenss P27 Figure 5-14. Network density COMpariSOM.................cccceeseeseseseeeseeeeeeeeseeeseetetseseeteneeeneeesees DOLD Figure 5-15. Example to change in tactics based on density shifts «0.0.0.0... teense O23 Figuire:5=16.. Fragmented Network...ccccisccs.sseccssissesaesttonsneserennnsserenensteccenstanesasaenecsevantasensances OOM Figure 5-17. Timeline example ................cscsceceeeseseseseeeeeesceceeecscseeteseceeeeeeaseeasatatatssstenseseenes OOD Figure 5-18. Time event chart example. ...........2......:::s:ccescsescsceseseseseseeseesenesensssseseeseeseseeee res OP2O Figure 5-19. Pattern analysis plot sheet example ................:.ccceeecteeeseseeeeeeeeeeneeeeeeeeeee OPO Figuire:5-20..lncidant OVer ay OXAMPIO:...0c..cscecerciacectiessausseraiecrsereetecueserasetesrsvacecereates OOO! Figure 7-1. Example of an improvised explosive device activity model ...............::cceee PS Figure A-1. Futures wheel example .................2.c:c:ceseseseseeesessceseseeseeeeeseeceeeteseesesessseeeseeeee A dB Tables Introductory table 1. Summary of Changes.............:.:.:cessesesseeeeeeseseeeeteeeeeeeeteeeeeteteeeeereeeeeee Wil Table 2-1. CHECKISE TOF TeASONIAG sescsiecssisseses cesses aur auenm 2 ‘Table.3-1.. Subjective: probability table ).c.scciccc.escnccossessscsarsesssnnsseancsernninesar ene carcasses Ol. Table 6-1. Use of basic diagnostic analytical techniques. ............... cece eeeeeeeeeeeeeereee OD Table 6-2. Use of core Army analytical techniques ............0...c cette ee ee eeeeeeeeteeeeteteeeeeeee O68 Table 6-3. Use of emerging and other structured analytical techniques...................000.-6-8 Table 7-1. Possible nodes located in an improvised explosive device network...................7-3 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 iii Contents 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 iii Figures Figure 2-1. The elements of thought ...................................................................................... 2-3 Figure 3-1. Matrix example ..................................................................................................... 3-4 Figure 3-2. Threat intention matrix ......................................................................................... 3-5 Figure 3-3. Example of event mapping .................................................................................. 3-6 Figure 3-4. Event tree example .............................................................................................. 3-8 Figure 3-5. Subjective probability example ............................................................................ 3-9 Figure 3-6. Weighted ranking example ................................................................................ 3-13 Figure 5-1. Matrix comparing courses of action ..................................................................... 5-4 Figure 5-2. Comparison of targets .......................................................................................... 5-5 Figure 5-3. Example association matrix ............................................................................... 5-10 Figure 5-4. Example activities matrix ................................................................................... 5-12 Figure 5-5. Example link diagram ......................................................................................... 5-13 Figure 5-6. Nodal linkage example ....................................................................................... 5-16 Figure 5-7. Hierarchical organization ................................................................................... 5-17 Figure 5-8. Networked organization and structural options example ................................... 5-18 Figure 5-9. Network chain .................................................................................................... 5-19 Figure 5-10. Network hub-and-wheel ................................................................................... 5-19 Figure 5-11. All-channel network .......................................................................................... 5-19 Figure 5-12. Affiliated associate network ............................................................................. 5-20 Figure 5-13. Centrality example ........................................................................................... 5-21 Figure 5-14. Network density comparison ............................................................................ 5-23 Figure 5-15. Example to change in tactics based on density shifts ..................................... 5-23 Figure 5-16. Fragmented network ........................................................................................ 5-24 Figure 5-17. Timeline example ............................................................................................. 5-27 Figure 5-18. Time event chart example ................................................................................ 5-28 Figure 5-19. Pattern analysis plot sheet example ................................................................ 5-29 Figure 5-20. Incident overlay example ................................................................................. 5-30 Figure 7-1. Example of an improvised explosive device activity model ................................. 7-3 Figure A-1. Futures wheel example .....................................................................................A-18 Tables Introductory table 1. Summary of changes ............................................................................... vii Table 2-1. Checklist for reasoning .......................................................................................... 2-5 Table 3-1. Subjective probability table ................................................................................. 3-10 Table 6-1. Use of basic diagnostic analytical techniques ....................................................... 6-5 Table 6-2. Use of core Army analytical techniques ................................................................ 6-6 Table 6-3. Use of emerging and other structured analytical techniques ................................ 6-8 Table 7-1. Possible nodes located in an improvised explosive device network ..................... 7-3