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Intel Update · 2021-10-25

OCT 25 Intel Update: Be Careful What You Wish For

hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground this is the briefing for monday the 25th of october 2021 and it is as always being recorded on the day prior the 24th of october so let's jump right into it with the weather weather over the next 12 hours is going to be quite significant for some parts of the country as we'll be able to see a little bit more clearly on the wind slide next but really for this slide just wanted to point out that the end of evening nautical twilight is going to be at 7 14 p.m at least for the eastern time zone it'll be pretty similar for every other time zone as well and we are also in a green illumination cycle meaning that the lunar illumination is quite high so a very bright moon at 85.9 percent illumination and like i mentioned we've got quite a few weather advisories up in the northeastern part of the united states as well as parts of the midwest and also some parts of the west coast mostly northern california parts of idaho and other parts of the west moving into notams really the only one of note is of course the presidential notam this one happens to be a campaign event for the governor of new jersey so that's going to happen uh it really lapses on the 25th of october so by the time this brief goes out and most people see it the snowtown will be gone i just wanted to highlight that one though moving into the civil unrest forecast really nothing new on that front uh most major cities are having a lot of problems with crime and things like that as we can see quite clearly on social media and even mainstream media is covering it at this point so uh yeah something to be aware of if you live in those cities but you know again preaching to the choir on that front chances are if you are in an area where there is civil unrest crime lawlessness things like that you already know about it so uh kind of a moot point to kind of rehash the what what the u.s cities have become at this point so we'll move on to logistics and as far as logistics goes for this briefing cycle i know we have gotten a lot of questions and the general public has a lot of questions regarding what kind of things are going to be in short supply logistics has been certainly a topic of hot conversation even in the mainstream media at this point but let's just go over the status quo for those of you who are just joining us now with regards to what shortages are still current so on the left hand side of the screen as always the shortages that are affecting every state that's not a legend for the icons that are on the map i'm speaking to the icons on the map but as we can see the shortages that we have been having for really a nationwide continue and as far as specific state-based shortages goes we have the school bus driver shortages that continue this is a of course a problem that is hitting all states at this point but really mostly massachusetts and ohio continue to get hit the worst with this we also have the water shortage out west that's going to probably alleviate itself somewhat as we get into the winter type season and we also have the microchip shortage that has shut down manufacturing in a lot of states we're still adding to the list i'm sure there are a lot of states that this is expanded to that i have not uh delineated delineated on the map but i just wanted to remind everybody hey this microchip shortage is a big deal and it's going to continue to be a big deal as we move forward into the el electronics buying season right and as far as the 64 thousand dollar question what about food shortages so right now uh hashtag empty shelves biden is trending on twitter and most people are becoming aware that yeah we're having food shortages now so i get it i fully understand the sentiment and yes we can place most of the blame for these food shortages on the regime or something that the regime has done however a lot of people are not merely content to show the truth of the situation and have used these food shortages and empty shelves for political gain which again i understand but it really makes it difficult for people like us who are trying to tell people where they can find food like 99 of the photos of empty shelves on social media that we've seen circulating around either have some kind of witty or clever comment but don't actually show us where the footage where the footage was taken over the shortages are located or the photos themselves were taken during the first round of food shortages earlier this year i've caught a few of those using reverse image searches going around on social media so that's something to be mindful is as well it's really the misinformation is strong on both sides of the aisle with this one so right now i can't really tell you where most of the shortages are located because again it's it's pretty random however i do have a couple of random specific shortages to be aware of so first one is texas there texas is having a liquor shortage at least as far as local mainstream media outlets are reporting as in they in the talks that they do in interviews they do with local breweries and distilleries and things like that people are already starting to shop for the holiday season which is a good idea but this when it comes to alcohol in texas is actually resulting in localized shortages so it kind of makes sense also not depicted on the slide is butterball turkeys so butterball themselves have said that there is going to be a shortage of turkeys this year or that turkeys are going to be either it's kind of one of those weird things where there's going to be a shortage but the turkeys are also going to be oversized because they didn't have personnel on hand to cull the turkeys before they got to be a gargantuan size so it's one of those weird things that kind of works out in the in the food logistics network but as far as holiday foods really anything that has a surge is going to be have a potential for having a food shortage so holiday specific foods like like pumpkin pie filling and canned cranberry sauce like not many people eat these things regularly throughout the year like it's just it's a highly seasonal thing for most people so there is normally a surge on these kinds of foods during the holiday season that's just like normally before things got crazy that was what normally happened so if there is a surge in demand for these foods normally how do you think this is going to play out when many of our logistics networks in the u.s are are highly highly stressed and some of them are even crippled at this point so bottom line plan ahead and buy now if you don't want to be affected when it comes to specifically the food shortages and another specific shortage that we're tracking is kind of like looming out there is coffee specifically arabica beans and this is partly due to natural events resulting in poor harvests and the countries where coffee is primarily grown as well as the port congestion right because a lot of the coffee is obviously imported from overseas pork congestion you can't offload as much cargo and we have problems with that so there you go you could have a shortage of coffee it's really going to be hard to say how this is going to be impacted because coffee comes from all around the world so it's not like coffee's grown in one country right it's grown in many countries but it's just not not a lot of it's grown here in the us and what is growing here in the u.s like in hawaii well you still got to put it on a ship to get here so yeah if you're if you're an avid coffee drinker you might want to stock up or check and see if your particular brand is expressing that they have shortages so something to keep in mind as well and also i briefly wanted to mention that this is kind of a common sense thing it should be a common sense thing i guess for most people but this holiday season is going to be kind of rough like we're already seeing the narratives of you know lower expectations right we're already seeing the narratives being put out there that there's going to be a shortage of things like toys and electronics uh this holiday season so if you want to be uh prepared for that you had better be shopping now like at this point we're seeing two things occur and this is what's really driving a lot of our shortages we're seeing a manufactured panic people saying there is a shortage on a certain thing and then there they are using that as a way to get views and numbers and things like that and then also secondly a genuine shortage that is either caused by the first thing or accidentally related to the first thing so at this point the bottom line is it doesn't matte it doesn't matter if the shortage is manufactured for you know political gain or if it is a genuine shortage the shortage is going to happen so uh just being be mindful of that the microchip shortage has been a very long has been a problem for a very long time and you might find that uh you might not be able to get this year's model of the latest thing you're trying to buy for the holiday season right electronics have become a huge huge gift item over over the past few years and those electronic devices are really what we're seeing a a a very uh stressed logistical network for but we can talk more about logistics on the next slide so for critical infrastructure again the theme is logistical problems this brief so as one might expect by now we as a nation are in serious trouble on the logistics front uh it's one of those weird things where where like i mentioned the mainstream media is over hyping it in some cases and sensationalizing things like ship stuck at anchor and shipping containers like sitting empty and other stuff like that and the media is sensationalizing this right again because it sells it sells newspapers right the problem is the media is both wrong and right at the same time like the media is dramatizing things like trucking shortages but the trucking shortages really are that bad so the media doesn't know that they accidentally are sensationalizing something that really is that bad in a lot of these cases so it's such a confusing mess and i'm not doing a great job at explaining it but the bottom line is that there are a few main reasons for the shortages and here they are the first one is that our logistics normally barely function as is so if there is a disruption anywhere in the chain or in the the network of any kind of logistics thing right the trickle-down effects are immediate and widespread because of this number two is increased demand due to states opening back up so governments around the world shut down their economies overnight but it's a little bit more difficult to start production back up again when you need it right plus we're dealing with the increased demand from people actually being able to engage in the economy again they're actually able to go back to work in a lot of these states and that's of course driving demand up and then thirdly medical mandates so we're seeing this across the board right it's become a theme for the past couple of weeks that medical mandates are forcing trained and highly skilled labor personnel out of a job so either people are being coerced to the point where they're just like you know screw it i'm out or they're saying or they're being actually fired we're seeing that mostly in the medical field but we're also seeing it in other fields as well so you know and that leads into the fourth fourth category of the you know these medical mandates and various other issues are resulting in things like trucking shortages and you know reduced shipping and processing capability and things like that so all in all we're seeing a lot of moves being made in the field of skilled labor a lot of people are simply not willing to comply anymore with these absurdly tyrannical mandates and that's really points two three and four here on the slide everybody from ferry drivers to firefighters are really having to consider should they work for the locality that they work for because it's just too much right and that's also why we're seeing such a concerted effort to bring out the patriot act and slap that big t word on anyone who has even a slight disagreement with governmental forces if the regime wants to create two classes of society the jabbed and the unjabbed the regime collaborators and the resistance well they might just get their wish and i don't think they want that honestly as we can see now everyone from firefighters to emergency personnel to city waste management personnel to airline pilots and air traffic controllers and even military personnel who make the choice to even just take the discharge at this point with all this into account we can see that the government's desire to have two separate classes of society might just not work out in the regime's favor so it's one of those classic cases of be careful what you wish for and we're starting to see the results of that wish coming true right now so i guess we'll have to see how that plays out in the future and that leads nicely into the significant governmental actions slides so first up is of course delta airlines they are backtracking on their mandates for their pilots so not just delta but a lot of other airlines are starting to backtrack on these mandates so this is a perfect textbook example of the effectiveness of non-violent resistance a handful of pilots simply choosing to not go to work not only forced their company to change a policy but they forced their company to break a federal mandate to do so like in 2021 that's a big deal so you can see how effective this stuff is now look at all the other stuff that we think might be effective and now compare that to what these guys did and see how effective that is so you know we all try to say like well this is what resistance looks like well you know it looks kind of a lot like this sometimes so very powerful stuff and as i pointed out on the last slide a lot of other industries are figuring this stuff out it's called skilled labor for a reason a gender studies major can be replaced easily and society wouldn't notice at all but a single master welder walking off a job or a chief engineer for a massive company walking out and not using their ingenuity and creativity to support tyranny well now that will make a huge difference but despite all this resistance the us government particularly the us military is uh is really clamping down on this kind of stuff so the point number two there the u.s navy has issued a statement that they will be discharging all uh non-uh compliers from a medical standpoint now due to youtube censorship i can't really talk about the details of this it's just hard to talk around but even if i didn't have to worry about youtube's speech recognition tools there really isn't much more to say on this topic like we we could have our a lot of other better qualified people have talked about what's going on in the military right now the only thing i would like to point out is that you can serve your country in other ways than joining or staying in the military yeah i know this is a phrase that's been said for years but now that the rubber is meeting the road it's becoming more and more of an option for a lot of people particularly people who get kicked out or feel like they're willing to take that discharge even though it's an illegal discharge which you know for various reasons because the uh version of the the jab is not currently available anywhere in the us that is actually mandated by the us government so there's more details on that that you can read from other sources but right now if you are in the military and are being faced with this stuff the the question that we think worth asking yourself is at this stage in time how can you serve your country the most where can you do the most good is it in the military or in the civilian world from the civilian side of things so i'll just leave it at that so we don't digress any further on it but this is a much larger issue than just simply a bullet point on a slide and we can probably talk about this on other platforms at a different time but yeah i'll just leave it at that for now and then moving on to number three there this is kind of an interesting one uh biden in during a town hall was asked a question about if he would consider mobilizing the national guard i.e federalizing the national guard in order to handle a lot of these supply chain issues and he said absolutely he will consider doing that for sure well the white house pretty much immediately after he said that issued a statement saying no they're not going to do that at all um and because the white house people who work at the white house realized what how big of a deal that was for biden to say he's going to federalize the national guard that's a huge freaking deal so i don't know if this is just a crazy old man kind of thing because during that town hall he had a lot of physical things going on that maybe say that he probably wasn't in the best state of mind so i don't know if this was a slip of the tongue on his part that the white house had to come back and do damage control on instinctively i want to say that we'll yeah sure it makes sense that biden and the other people running things would eventually resort to military force when their propaganda and coercion no longer works that just kind of makes sense right you you know you trick and you trick and you lie and you lie and you push the propaganda and when people don't believe it anymore well you have to resort to force right there there aren't that many options left to to get what you want so um in fact i would say what indicators has anyone been given that this will not happen right and federal assets being deployed to do everything from drive trucks to school buses is a great way to both normalize the use of the national guard and also maintain a closer grip on these networks and institutions so yeah when biden speaks it's definitely worth listening to what he says or or what he doesn't say even if you know you can chalk it up to him just having a slip of the tongue or one of those you know bidenisms that that we gave bush so much uh so much trouble for back in the day well you know biden does kind of the same thing but yeah i i don't know if it's just a slip of the tongue or or some kind of freudian slip or something i just thought it'd be worth pointing out that yeah behind freely admitted to doing this even though the white house immediately came back and said no we're not going to do this so also number four speaking of national guard deployments governor pritzker has threatened to activate the national guard to serve as a domestic police force amid a standoff with the police union leadership who refused to mandate the jab for their officers so as far as the likelihood of the illinois governor activating the national guard to serve as basically an occupation force slash domestic policing force i would say that historically this is something that would be extremely extremely rare however we do not live in the same world as before and the rules of the game have changed that whole game has changed right and with governors using state national guard assets as their own personal policing force over the past year i would say that at this point governor's doing this kind of thing is fully and completely par for the course at this point that's you know why we think that it's worth it for the american people to at least know what's going on with regards to these deployments and know which states are kind of getting it the worst and the number five there youtube is banning all instances of uh the phrase that's on your screen right now i can't say it and i had to put it in the form of a captcha so that youtube's text recognition bots can't read it and ban our entire channel so yeah censorship has surpassed what i think a lot of people have deemed to be possible but yeah there we go it is both quite interesting and also tragically sad that we are evolving to speak and code to even talk about news items but there you go i guess in case some people don't know what i'm talking about i can talk around a brief explanation so this phrase originated from an interview with the winner of a nascar race whose name was b right there right so the journalist interviewing him after the race remarked on camera that uh the crowd was chanting this phrase however it was painfully obvious that the crowd was actually chanting f joe biden as has become a staple at all sporting events over the past well few months i guess well from there the internet picked it up and now this phrase is a common child friendly way to convey the sentiment of f joe biden right without actually resorting to profanity a few congressmen have said it quite a few other famous people have said it and now it's it's a phrase of resistance to the regime so to speak so much so that a rapper recorded a song entitled this phrase that has since then topped the charts well youtube being a propaganda arm of the regime has deleted the rap video citing medical misinformation so yeah hopefully that explains what the deal is on that and you know how far we have to go for censorship a lot of times so moving on to the troop deployment map thingy uh here is the uh slide that explains how to read all this stuff in case you haven't you don't understand what any of this stuff is so you can pause it and check that out as as you wish but moving on to the northeast region really no major change on that front we're starting to see some new york national guard members starting to get put in hospitals as far as their deployment on the medical staff support front um don't really know numbers or anything i just wanted to point out that that deployment is is currently underway as far as we can tell we're you know of course doing this from the ocean side of things so we don't get anybody in trouble and then also in massachusetts there they are still uh conducting operations of driving uh children to school so so that's really they're all there is to say on the northeast region this week not really not really much new also not really a whole lot new in the southeast as well we're seeing slight numbers of increases in all the states that are on the slides but really no major change again not all the people from these units are deployed we're talking like even though we have like a division you know delineated on the slide it's not the whole division it's just like probably a handful of people maybe a squad at most so i just didn't want to point that out because being able to be familiar with what units are operating in what areas for stuff like this is kind of handy to know mostly because of this next one which is the midwest region so right there the illinois national guard we might start seeing them be used right now i know it looks kind of scary the way that it's on the slide however i wanted to put it on there because we need to be aware of this now i personally think that the governor threatening to use the national guard as a domestic policing force is more of a threat it's more of a political thing than it is a concrete thing because people who don't understand how the national guard works anybody who's in the illinois national guard is saying this guy's this guy's full of crap because it's just going to be hard to do it's going to be very difficult it's not as easy as what this guy is saying you can't just replace all the police officers on the street with national guard soldiers it doesn't work like that so there's more to it than that i know that it's kind of scary to think about and i will admit it is scary to think about however i just wanted to kind of you know calm expectations a little bit and say that it it might just be a political thing at this point but since there the threat has been made we have to kind of treat that threat until we know otherwise right so until we know for sure if the illinois national guard is or is not going to be deployed as a domestic policing force we're going to leave them on the slide and just be aware that that state is is going down that kind of path also ohio and minnesota are also contemplating deployments ohio we still haven't really seen any more traction on it the news hasn't talked about it any haven't seen any press statements regarding it so this might just be kind of a thing that people are complaining about but we don't know so we're just going to leave it there just in case and also minnesota minnesota this is actually one that's a little bit more uh more more of a sure thing uh the minnesota national guard is talking about or the governor is actually talking about deploying the minnesota national guard for medical staff support much like all the other states that have sent you know us a squad here a platoon there uh to help local hospitals out but since there they've announced that i just wanted to put that up there and down southwest on the border uh we are seeing uh more troops move into the area along the border for to support operation lone star um as far as numbers goes uh we're actually seeing is probably a little higher than what we have here on the slide because a lot of troops have come in we haven't been able to count or figure out which units are moving into the area but really the big news for this week out of texas has been that national guard soldiers are now allegedly being engaged with small arms by cartel members just across the border so this is a screenshot of surveillance footage that has been circulating online in reference to this specific incident so these guys are cartel members you can see there there are heavily armed with small arms and they they're the ones who allegedly shot across the border as far as what this means this is really just a stronger indicator that the border situation is heating up and will likely to continue to escalate into the future cartel members shooting over the border towards the u.s is nothing new not new at all i myself have spent many evenings down down south on the border watching sporadic tracer fire across the border so that was many years ago and i can't even imagine what it's like now but just to point out that the situation is heating up down in texas on the border and probably will continue to do so into the future and moving out west mostly the only update is really oregon so oregon has had a reduction of service members uh regarding the medical support mission so as we see on the slide here it's about a thousand uh personnel deployed for that mission at any given time from any branch of the oregon national guard that number is at this point now very high because a lot of people have simply gone home due to their mission lapsing or funding uh expiring to keep them on active duty orders so that number is quite high it's going to be quite less than that and also we're starting to see a little bit of a controversy develop in oregon with regards to the treatment of service members so here is a letter that was sent to the governor and the commanding general the adjutant general of the oregon national guard air air national guard you can read the full letter and the list of accusations of mistreatment using the links at the end of this or on the pdf of the slides but the bottom line is that in deploying the national guard so much the state of oregon has kind of screwed over service members on things like pay and readiness and training and being in constant limbo without actually ever being on orders you know things like that right so the things that a lot of national guard units do in other states as well um kind of the bad parts being in the guard uh oregon has been doing that to their guys so they're guys and gals so this letter was sent and it just kind of highlights all this stuff but you can read it yourself so there's a lot of consternation with regards to the how the oregon national guard service members are being treated and as a result i don't know if it's a direct result of this letter but we're seeing the numbers wind down significantly so something to keep an eye on for the future and as far as montana and wyoming really the same status quo goes very small numbers of troops uh that have been deployed to area hospitals so we'll keep an eye on that as we move forward as far as the mass mandate school attendance tracker thing really no major update on this front we're starting to see a few more states sue the federal government over their mandates but really we haven't seen anything concrete concrete enough to put on the slide at least so we'll have to update this in the future same thing with this one no real change to this we are seeing a significant pushback in california due to the jab mandates for school children there i doubt that those those particular demonstrations will be able to do very much but we are starting to see things like walkouts and parents taking their kids out of school and even moving out of state at this point so yeah that's something to watch if you're in the area i'm sure you probably know more about it than we do and then overall no real major change to the medical resistance tracker as we see going forward again remember the reason that we're kind of in limbo with this is that we haven't seen a single thing from the from the regime regarding the mandates right it's just been a verbal thing so you can't sue anybody for something that they haven't done right or they haven't said it's just it's all such a legal gray area that it's really hard to form a resistance and the regime was smart to do it that way in retrospect but we'll start seeing some more resistance as we get into the holiday season because we're already starting to see the the regime kind of set expectations right and then setting them low for uh for the holiday season so i'm sure we'll see a lot of that as we move forward into the later parts of the year and then finally for international news i'm sorry i didn't have time to really go over much of anything in the world with regards to strategic moves and whatnot we did put together a concrete brief on china and their new hypersonic missile system or rather not new hypersonic missile system so if you're interested in that go check that out um it's kind of a longer topical brief but i think that it kind of gives a good explanation as to what's going on on that front and whether or not you should be concerned about it i'll leave it at that you guys can you can go check that brief out if you so choose and as we conclude today another special thank you to our patreon supporters thank you guys and gals out there for your support i know i say it a lot but you guys really are in fact helping more than you could possibly know so here are your sources for this brief there's the first slide slide two slide three and slide four as always you can either pause and go back and read those links or if you so choose you can download the slides from our odyssey page we can't link all these slides not only due to text text account but there are keywords in there that get our videos flagged so that's why we have to do it kind of an inconvenient way but we are showing you the sources or at least the sources we were able to find for a lot of this stuff so hopefully that helps out uh in your own research so thank you again everyone for watching and we will see you next time and as always fight in the shade
S2 briefing · 2022-02-09

Ukraine Update: Shell Games

hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground this is the ukrainian war intelligence update for wednesday the 9th of february 2022 and as always it is being recorded on the day prior on the 8th of february just a heads up for those of you who prefer an audio only format we're going to be uploading this episode as an audio only podcast in addition to the video format so for those of you who prefer the audio only there you go but just keep in mind that we're going to be talking a lot about stuff that really requires a map to kind of explain what's going on so if you wanted to download the slides and just have those separately that's available to you as well so let's move into the european theater update as far as the general situation europe goes really the biggest news as of late has been the united states deploying b-52s to the united kingdom the us has recently announced that they will be forward deploying an unknown number of b-52 stratofortress strategic bombers to bases in the united kingdom this move while frightening to some is completely expected and right out of the cold war playbook much like we mentioned last time moving around strategic assets like bombers is a political posturing move that russia expects and seeing as russia herself has not only ford deployed her own bombers but has actively been flying them around on her western front the us moving some bombers to forward locations in the uk is again completely par for the course and a proportional response to russian aviation activities in the region over the past few weeks likewise i briefly wanted to mention that the royal navy has been quite busy shadowing a quite a number of russian ships that have now made their way down to the med which we will talk about in just a bit in a continuation from last time the nations of norway finland and poland have made it very clear that civil defense is certainly a hot topic for them they're not the only nations doing this pretty much every nation in europe is doing some kind of civil defense running drills uh educating the public things like that with regards to the tensions that have now really swept through the entirety of the continent belarus has also had quite a lot of strong rhetoric coming out lately regarding russian exercises and things like that in the region lukashenko has talked a lot about belarusian defenses and they've made declarations that uh belarus is going to be buying a lot of the military hardware that russia has been showcasing during their joint exercises together and swiveling back to ukraine uh ukraine has been preparing for the worst most certainly and has begun the military training of civilians who want to take part in their defense people who would normally be considered to be non-combatants have already been observed taking part in crude small arms training such as the elderly women and even some suspiciously young teenagers this points very strongly to this fight if it happens being more horrific than we can possibly imagine this isn't iraq or syria or afghanistan this is a european nation with over 44 million people in it including about 40 000 americans so yeah that's really all i've got to say on that for now moving on to the high seas we come to the north atlantic and as an update from last time literally as we were uploading the last brief russia declared that they will not be conducting their exercise within ireland's economic exclusion zone so the exercise area that we showed last time is no longer in effect however we do not know where russia has moved the exercise to i haven't had time to run that down today it is likely that if russia does intend on conducting operations in the vicinity of undersea cables they will probably just do it anyway and keep any surface support vessels out of ireland's waters while their gucci directorate submarines do their special secret squirrel stuff on the sea floor wherever they want as far as significant naval surface operations we will speak to that in a moment because the ships involved are now in the mediterranean sea so let's head down south the waters of the mediterranean are teeming with steel as we continue to see naval forces build up in the region the flotilla of russian landing ships that we have been monitoring has made it through the med and has been in port tardis syria for the past couple of days taking on fuel and supplies and getting their uh transit through the dardanelles and the bosphorus all uh copacetic with turkey by the time this brief goes out all six ships will have transited but right now at the time of recording the minsk the core 11 the kaliningrad have gone through as of february 8th and the other three the gorniak the publishers and the murganov will be heading through tomorrow on february 9th but right now in the black sea coastal observers and maritime tracker watchers have observed the russian intelligence collection ship ivan quarters hanging out just outside the 12 nautical mile territorial waters of ukraine in the vicinity of odessa the chorus is known to do this all the time so it's not really out of the ordinary but she is an intelligence collection signals interception ships so she's probably hanging out and picking up various signals intelligence from the ukrainian forces which have undoubtedly been fortifying the city over the past few months if russia does intend to head for the odessa area with an amphibious assault pre-soaking the area and collecting as much intelligence as possible is most certainly going to be a high priority back down in the med three carrier strike groups from western powers have been conducting joint exercises in an impressive show of force the us harry s truman carrier strike group the french charles de gaulle carrier strike group and the italian kevor carrier strike group have been sailing in formation or in close proximity to each other for about a week now as a way of projecting power and letting russia know that the west owns the med when it comes to aerial strike capability and generally dominates the region on the naval front not to be outdone russia is also flexing her muscle in the med by bringing in a second slava class heavy guided missile cruiser the marshall ustanov the ustanov is being escorted by the destroyer kulakov and the frigate kazastanov these ships caused a bit of a stir as they passed by the british isles on their way down with the royal navy showing her teeth in the form of significant aviation operations in the vicinity of the russian ships as well as the maneuvering of various capital ships to let the russians know that their presence was unwelcome dustinoff compliments her sistership the variag and her escorts who have also been hanging out in the med for some time now and are currently located off the coast of syria this is interesting to note because it has been kind of a while since two slava cruisers have been observed together in the med moving to the overall strategic view of ukraine not much has changed on the front as far as icons goes but we'll have to jump into each front so let's do that now on the northeastern front an unidentified communications unit has been observed to be set up just outside the city of belgrade with various communications equipment being observed most likely an r416gm and an r419l1 set up for narrowband tactical communications the unit remains unidentified but it is most likely attached in some form to the third motorized rifle division which has been in the area for some time moving up to course the 26th tank regiment has arrived and also at least one battalion from the 79th mlrs brigade has arrived as well moving to the eastern front we have observed limited combat actions in the areas designated on the slide quite a few different areas over the past couple of days let us remember that there is currently a ceasefire on right now as there has been for a while which explains the lack of major combat operations on the eastern front but as literally everyone knows cease fires in eastern ukraine in recent years have carried less weight than one might imagine from a viewpoint of western traditional warfare so even though there's a ceasefire going on there have been skirmishes every day for the past few years so just like what has been normal for the past few years we've seen limited skirmishes all along the line nothing out of the ordinary some might say there's been a slight increase in kinetic actions along the front but really it's kind of hard to tell of course we want to remember that just because we don't see anything significant doesn't mean that nothing is happening the absence of an observation does not mean an absence in its entirety right and since military deception is already a staple of the eastern front and has been for years the world will keep a sharp eye for any indications that this party might be getting started moving down to the southern front really the only thing to mention is again the ivan coors kind of hanging out there collecting intelligence presumably on the city of odessa as well as the reinforcements that continue to stream in to the crimean peninsula i also wanted to open up an additional front just so that we have this slide for later uh this is what we're going to be calling the western front along ukraine's southwestern border with moldova and we've gotten a few questions about this because people aren't quite sure what's going on with moldova so really the short version of this is that it's real it's not really moldova it's actually a breakaway republic so as you can see kind of on the slide there that little thin strip of land between moldova and ukraine is actually a breakaway republic it's the they call themselves the nation of transnistria nobody in the international community has actually recognized it as an independent nation uh except for other breakaway republics like a couple of republics in georgia i think have recognized transnistria now this is important to note because this breakaway republic is heartily supported by russia and as of the past couple of years we have seen about 5 000 troops or numbers indicating about 5 000 troops russian troops being stationed somewhere in uh transnistria probably the capital uh their their self-declared capital of tirispol so something to keep an eye on it's not like we're considering a lot of military actions coming from transnistria however this is yet another thing that ukraine is going to have to think about especially when it comes to defending the port city of odessa and moving back up to the northwestern front we have the 98th guards airborne division taking part in exercises in the town of brest on the belarussian border with poland they've been hanging out there for a while now just wanted to have them on the slide because it's an airborne unit and it's something that they've been conducting a lot of uh training operations in the area so who knows it's good to know that they're in the area though we also continue to see russian forces pouring into belarus and concentrating in much the same locations as before with gomel rachista and yeltsk being major locations for staging activity as a side note we're also noticing interesting tradecraft being practiced by russian forces some units are moved around to new locations which could be for legitimate staging like they're just trying to get to their final locations uh but this also could be to confuse western observers like us who are constantly trying to figure out the shell game right but we also have decently poor tradecraft such as some russian units not really doing much to camouflage their positions such as these aircraft stationed at lunanet's airfield again everything can be deception we always have to deal with when it comes to russia the attitude of well if we see it it's what they allow to be seen sometimes that's the case sometimes it's not sometimes it's good tradecrafts sometimes it's poor tradecraft sometimes it's poor tradecraft that is masquerading as a slip up to get you to think a certain way about a thing so we have to remember russian doctrine is very heavily invested in military deception and this is no exception and this brings us to bufgorka camp in belarus like i mentioned trying to track russian units is a grand shell game especially with temporary camps and bases popping up all over belarus or old bases being revitalized and being reused again or just new places popping up such as this one that we think we found today in the vicinity of the belarussian town of bufgorka this is the area that we've identified as housing the camp and using some open source sar imagery we can discover why sar imagery is kind of important and why we've talked about it before using this overlay we can clearly see a line of hard returns here along the tree line as well as in the field adjacent to this cluster of buildings to the northwest understandably this is a bit hard to see so we can make this sar data a bit more transparent and overlay it on top of the actual satellite imagery and we can see just a little bit better now remember this is basically kindergarten level imagery analysis but it's the best we've got available to us we're not the nga and we don't have fancy military satellites we're basically using european agricultural satellites to find russian armored columns at the moment and for this image specifically we're using the vertical transmit and receive polarization version of the sentinel one sar imagery which in this case helps us punch through the overhead vegetation to get strong radar returns off the hard armor of the vehicles hidden below so yeah we can clearly see that there's a lot of activity in this field along this tree line where vehicles are trying to be hidden uh in in the tree line there's a classic military tactic as well as some vehicles out there in the open or some kind of encampment we also have a possible ecp there don't really know what that is but it's a pretty hard return and looking at several star images we can see that it's probably some kind of vehicle cluster there as well so yeah the resolution is not great but open source satellite imagery can be used to do some pretty cool stuff like exposing the positions of russian armor in belarus in places they're not supposed to be and this can also be used everywhere else around the world because this imagery data is available for more or less the entire planet very useful bit of back pocket information so that's all we've got for today the shell game continues as we try to find more russian units hiding out in places they're not supposed to be so thank you all for your support it really does help a lot your support is really the only thing keeping our heads above water at this point so thank you again for that and even though this ukraine situation might not have as direct or dire consequences to the united states as it does for the nation of ukraine or even europe for that matter it does matter as we've pointed out before if nothing more than on a cyber front so hopefully we can learn some lessons we can continue showing some tips and tricks that can be used not just to help understand this ukraine situation but for any other situation that might pop up in the future so thanks again and we will see you next time and as always fight in the shade
Intel Update · 2021-10-10

Oct 10 Intel Update - The Words Not Said

hello again everyone welcome back to the underground this is the briefing for sunday the 10th of october 2021 and as usual it is being recorded on october 9th so let's jump right into the weather uh lots of significant weather patterns covering most of the united states over the next 12 hours with lots of cloud cover at very low levels being quite common throughout most regions eent or the end of evening nautical twilight the point in time where the sun finishes setting is at 7 34 pm eastern time but that will be very similar for the rest of the time zones throughout the country and that combined with the low lunar elimination of 14.1 percent means that it's going to be long dark nights over the next few days and like i mentioned we're starting to get the first inklings of winter weather moving down for the year as we have various weather systems creating all kinds of hazards for various spots around the country moving into notams really only one of note and it is the standard uh presidential vacation no tam so biden is spending the weekend as usual at his residence in wilmington delaware for the civil unrest forecast really absolutely no changes uh from last the last few briefs i'm just going to skip right past it nothing nothing major on that front and moving through logistics really quickly really no major changes uh we still have the school bus driver shortages of course that is now a national problem for most school districts around the country but by far massachusetts and ohio have been hit the hardest with this and massachusetts and ohio are the ones that we're starting to see a military response for also we still have water shortage out west still creating a lot of problems out that way as we move forward into the winter season we'll start to see precipitation we'll so we'll start to see how that actually affects things and how the water shortage gets resolved hopefully it will be pretty soon and also we still have the microchip shortage that is affecting essentially the entire country this state at this stage but specifically the states on the slides are are being heavily affected with regards to automobile manufacturing and as far as new additions for this cycle uh we are tracking the chatter surrounding potential gasoline shortages that are a result of the shipping congestion which i'll mention here in a minute so i just did want to briefly mention that potential i myself and none of the other staff here have been able to help me drill down enough to give you a solid analysis on that right now of course a few days after this video goes out i might look like an idiot but right now i just don't know how severe this shipping congestion is going to affect petroleum imports for processing i would venture a guest to say that it will affect things but as far as how much i just don't know right now and moving on to critical infrastructure again from last time the crystal valley ransomware attack is kind of petered off there's really nobody talking about it now including crystal valley themselves so no new information i'll take it off next time but i just wanted to really leave it on there because i haven't had any real change from it but moving on to number two facebook cyber attack that everybody knows about because the vast majority of people use facebook or their services so as far as analysis goes so talking about the actual cyber attack is is kind of a moot point at this point because everybody's already heard about it but as far as the analysis goes again this is something we've been talking about in most of our content any reliance on social media for things like infrastructure or communications is probably not a good idea facebook provides more services than just allowing your cousin to post cat pictures on the internet since the overwhelming majority of people on the planet are plugged into facebook or instagram at some level means that when that plug is pulled the whole planet goes comms dark so again there's a lot of talk and chatter out there about maybe this was intentional on facebook's part don't really have any indications either way so it's kind of a moot point to talk about it a lot of people are also saying that this might have something to do with facebook's um quote unquote whistleblower right the the most non-whistleblower whistleblower that i've ever seen um again really nothing worth talking about on that from because there's just no information sure theory is a theory but until we know more who really knows all we know is that facebook was down which again presents vulnerabilities if we are dependent on facebook's infrastructure for things like communication for number three the shipping congestion that we have been talking about for weeks continues and actually might have been the cause for number four which is that a pipeline off the coast of california was damaged causing a small spill however recent investigation by the pipeline owner has indicated that the breach could have been caused months ago and might not have been the result of an anchor strike at all but right now the details are pretty sketchy it's really hard to rule out anything until more investigation is done in any case with more and more ships sitting at anchor outside of u.s ports and causing all kinds of problems we should expect to see more of this kind of thing not just to include pipelines but communications cables as well which is a vastly important topic that we will have to cover in more depth at a later time and moving on to significant governmental actions the first point there being connecticut is taking a page out of new york's book and doing exactly the same thing that new york is doing they are firing doctors who refuse to jab themselves right and they are replacing them with soldiers so we'll see how this works out we'll talk more about that in just a second but moving on to the second point there this has gotten a lot of press from a lot of conservative media outlets again uh the fbi mobilizing against opponents of crt so here is a statement from the doj i know it's kind of small text but you can either read it in the sources or or in the slides the fbi is directly creating the infrastructure and the task forces and the required logistical planning right to start prosecuting anyone who is going to be opposing the mandates that school boards are coming up with so so this comes right on the heels of just a few days ago a lot of people uh trying to petition the fbi to use the patriot act against those who are opposing the regime that was something that's been circulating on social media for a while now and now we're starting to see the fbi kind of move in that direction which is interesting also it should be noted that this might just be a clay a case of classic corruption because the fbi director is the father-in-law of the co-founder of a company that sells crt school curriculum so it could just be a case of of classic corruption who knows the fbi from their senior leadership has made it very clear that that's the kind of road they want to go down but i guess we'll have to see how this goes but i guess the larger point is that uh the fbi is most certainly coming after normal americans now we saw the pivot right we saw the the writing on the wall when the military started getting uh this whole extremism crackdown right well now it's now it's coming now they're coming for americans so just like we've predicted and just like quite literally thousands of others predicted this kind of stuff is is happening so i guess we'll have to see how this works out i don't know if it's actually going to work out in terms of fbi agents being plants at like pta meetings and school board meetings to arrest anybody who says anything kind of hostile towards the school board i don't know if that's how it's going to work out but it would not be a bad idea to assume that in the worst you know the the most dangerous koa right and uh work from there so sort of along the same lines point number three there is the fbi is uh working to working with google to get warrants for specific keywords um you know when i look at stuff like this it's almost like this entire briefing today is turning out to have a mood of i told you so because there's just so much information today that has either already happened in the past or ourselves and literally again thousands of others have been talking about for years and of course the fbi is headed again with their draconian warrants so i guess everybody forgot when the fbi just a couple of months ago requested the ip addresses of people who read a specific news article right not wrote but read a specific news article so yeah google working with the fbi has not been a surprise since the old days of snowden in the prison program and it's certainly not surprising today i just wanted to highlight this because a lot of people have sent it to us and it's a good reminder that if you value privacy it would probably be a good idea to stay away from google as much as you can moving on to number four there the colorado health care system uc health has issued statements that they will be denying organ transplants to people who are unjabbed quote in almost all circumstances this came to light after a transplant patient received this letter informing her that she had been removed from the active recipient list but yeah our assessment on this development is that this is par for the course and completely in line with everything that we and others have been saying for at least two years now so i'm not going to rant and rave about that anymore it's pretty clear how things are going however this is a great reminder that there are other nations around the world that have completely returned to normal aren't requiring medical passports and aren't withholding medical treatment for political reasons so if you are seriously ill or have a chronic medical condition that requires medical intervention that could be easily denied you might want to consider receiving that treatment in another country at this point or at least start thinking about that start that start that process of thinking about it again this is obviously not medical advice it's up to you to make your own decisions i know shocker right making your own medical decisions in 2021 is is is a rarity i guess but but for me if i needed some significant medical care right now i would be very seriously considering my options because even though this is just one hospital system out of the thousands in the country the fact that this can happen once proves that it can happen elsewhere too and if hospitals are allowed and have the desire to deny life-saving treatment to people for political reasons the entire system is kind of tarnished to a certain degree certainly to the point that we now genuinely have to think about things like is my hospital going to help me if i am unjabbed these are the things that we need to start working on getting answers for right now before this becomes a more widespread problem and moving on to number five there bill gates is uh he's getting a lot of press once more uh his population control quote being confirmed to be true uh and is now being kind of touted as a good thing so this is the same exact mentality if we want to take a step back for a second this is the same exact mentality as the election stuff in which the mainstream media claimed that there was no fraud until a time magazine article came out that framed the fraud as a good thing like they banded together to save democracy or something we all remember that right so also the same mentality with general milley's sort of you know treasonous acts right he doubled down in his testimony to congress and confirm that he did indeed do all of those treasonous things but it was to save the world from you know the evil trump right well here we are with fact-checking sites all over the internet confirming that bill gates did indeed say what he said and that he did indeed mean what he said as in it wasn't a slip of the tongue or an error in his speech which has been the classic excuse for this since his ted talk went viral but now the fact checkers are saying that it's true and these are screenshots of the actual fact checking like statement on this particular quote and the one line that is kind of hilarious is this sentence right here which is kind of funny see what they're trying to do what the fact checkers are trying to do is separate the rate of growth from total number which is definitely two separate things right in mathematics reducing rate of rise does not mean reducing already existing numbers right but here's the problem when you apply that to human beings the population of the earth that still sounds like the dr strangelove approach right so to his statement my question is this how exactly does bill gates intend to reduce the growth of the human population without enacting some kind of global one-child policy to prevent people from being born so yeah i guess that's really there's really not a whole lot of intel value there in just other than just to say that it's kind of interesting and this whole mentality of deny deny deny acknowledge and then tout as being a good thing is definitely a tactic that a lot of people are using these days and when it comes to the actual information right because this is this has gotten a lot of people's attention even though like man i watched that ted talk when it came out like years ago and i was concerned then and i'm you know concerned now about as much like that level of concern has not either increased or decreased so if you want my opinion right there isn't much difference between outright murdering people and not allowing people to have kids right again there is a slight difference on paper right but if the end result is the same lower human population it's very hard to argue that population control is a good thing in any case bill gates is still advocating for governments to determine when a person is allowed to exist so yeah i mean that's that's really all i've got to say on that and since the theme of today is kind of talking about individuals and remembering the past right moving on to this particular issue which is uh this is something that has gone kind of viral again amongst a lot of conservative sites over the past few days sheriff villanueva has gotten this good press because he has stated that he will not force his deputies and staff to get the jab stating that and i quote i don't want to be in a position to lose five ten percent of my workforce overnight on a blank mandate right but here's the problem read his quote and observe what it is not he did not say i don't want to enforce this mandate because it's unconstitutional against human rights and just plain wrong no he didn't say that at all for him it's a personnel issue he knows that his deputies will quit overnight and that loss is not acceptable to him now you might be wondering why am i talking about all this it seems like kind of a non-issue after all we can't exactly go off of words that he didn't say right the words not said you can't exactly hold somebody accountable for not doing something or at least it's very hard to do well here's my point exactly this is the same guy that was chomping at the bit to round up as many american citizens as possible he is the man with the plan when it came to the lockdowns earlier this year and last year and fervently and actively hunted down americans for having the audacity to have people in their homes arresting hundreds and hundreds of people for simply being at someone else's house he created special task forces to raid private residences looking for party partygoers and in the process searched and confiscated dozens of guns he also set up the infrastructure for neighbors to report on neighbors and actively encouraged people to report on friends and family who might be violating the governor's mandates and the la mayor's mandates and let us not forget sheriff villanueva's personal pet project operation homebound this was the highly controversial program in which badged sheriff's deputies would go out into the community to give people the jab in their own home now here's the problem this program got a lot of bad press because videos surfaced of badged law enforcement officers forcibly restraining mentally disabled people and forcibly jabbing them against their will as one might expect a lot of blogs and so-called media websites spun this way up because well history repeating itself is i guess the theme for the past couple of years however the sheriff's deputies were called out by the guardians of the people that were being forcibly jabbed so technically this was all completely legal and above board here's the problem though with this uh it doesn't really look great to have a badged law enforcement officer with a gun sticking a syringe into someone who is screaming crying and doing everything they can to resist it just looks really bad and considering the de facto implications of the officers being armed with weapons it looks even worse even if a court says that that person is mentally incapable of consenting themselves this is raising a lot of questions about what that word consent means i guess plus there's always a problem of what's the penalty for resisting a doctor or nurse's treatment not really anything at all but what is the penalty for resisting a badged and armed law enforcement officer you see how this is now a huge problem and i go out of the way to talk about all of this because it is a lesson that we as a people clearly have not learned right now a lot of politicians are being put up on a pedestal because they are fighting biden's mandates which on a side haven't even been written yet but those same politicians that are fighting biden right now were salivating at the prospect of locking down americans florida and texas were some of the very first states to put up police checkpoints on their borders how quickly we forget these events so i wanted to make this digression in hopes that some of you will not forget what these people did and that is a huge thing to remember for analysis moving forward when we're talking about the likelihood of resistance efforts we've always got to keep these things in the backs of our minds and that just because a politician or a some kind of official is saying the you know good stuff right now we can't forget what they did just one year ago all right switching gears we have significantly changed the conus deployment map so as to be a little bit easier to understand because my own first crack at it was not great and there were quite a few errors so here is a reference slide that helps explain how to read the following slides if you are not familiar with these topics as usual you can pause and screenshot or preferably download the pdf of these slides from our odyssey page so let's get to it in the northeast the new york national guard has begun preparations for deploying to various hospitals as a result of the government firing health care workers and right now we're projecting elements from spencer's 42nd infantry division to be activated to fill these vacancies again not everyone from these units will be deployed we just don't know numbers right now because national guard deployments are usually based on volunteers from random units so as we go through this keep in mind that we will almost certainly be overestimating numbers so for new york we're kind of in the dark right now as to how many volunteers are going to be stepping up to take positions in new york hospitals connecticut is in the exact same situation with their governor terminating doctors and nurses who refuse the jab and replacing them with soldiers this is still in its early stages so we don't really have a good idea as to how yvonne's joint staff is going to be required to handle these deployments so we're just going to have to stay tuned on that and finally for massachusetts small elements of soldiers from the 26th maneuver enhancement brigade continued to be deployed to drive school buses no major change on that from last brief moving on down to the southeast several states have deployed various sized elements to hospitals around their states and we have a really a better intel picture for kentucky and tennessee so kentucky is deploying small groups of soldiers from cavallini's 149th meb to support local hospitals and tennessee is deploying soldiers from turner's 278th armored cavalry regiment and patterson's 230th sustainment brigade to also support local area hospitals again the press reports of exactly how many soldiers are deployed from these units vary widely so when we get a better picture we will provide that update as well and finally the states of alabama south carolina and georgia have also deployed very small numbers of troops we're talking probably a platoon's worth of soldiers in each of these states again within submission of supporting area hospitals moving to the midwest really there's not much going on with regards to national guard deployments we're still waiting to see if ohio will deploy soldiers to help with the school bus driver crisis but press statements by various government officials have confirmed that an unknown number of soldiers are currently in training to learn how to drive a school bus so we are fully expecting this deployment to take place and we will provide an update when we learn how harris's joint battle staff is going to be deploying units out southwest we have quite significant deployments of troops along the southern border with hamilton's 36th infantry division providing most of the soldiers specifically perez's 36 sustainment brigade and rivera's 72nd brigade combat team are the units that are providing most of the soldiers for this mission also we have significant deployments from the texas state guard as well which for those of you that don't know is separate from the national guard it's still a military unit but it's uh they still have military organization but they are a separate command structure right so we don't have any good numbers for how many state guard soldiers have been activated but when we get some publicly releasable numbers we will push that out as well and also we are not counting the thousands of national customs and border patrol forces or the hundreds of other law enforcement figures that have been deployed to support this mission all we have are press statements that indicate that all total there are roughly 1 000 state law enforcement officers and about 2 500 soldiers from texas that are supporting this mission again these numbers are very approximate and a lot of other states have sent troops and police officers to the border as well so we're still trying to count everybody and tie everybody up arizona and new mexico have also deployed personnel to the border but not nearly in the numbers that texas has it's such a small number that it's not even close so when we get a better number for those states we'll update that as well and finally out west we have significant deployments of soldiers and airmen in oregon to support local hospitals in oregon their national guard situation is kind of unique with the air national guard really being the main force so stencil has deployed significant numbers of airmen from unruh's 142nd fighter wing as the main force for providing personnel to local hospitals however the very small army national guard contingent has also deployed soldiers from the 41st brigade combat team mostly just a handful of soldiers from the 1st battalion 186 infantry regiment and for the school attendance mask mandate tracker uh really no updates from last brief except that i corrected an error that's been there for a long time vermont has had a mask mandate for a while now and they extended it to november 1st so and for those of you who are just now finding us every single state in the nation as far as we can tell has a mask mandate somewhere in the state usually it's the largest school district in the state or the school district that is nearest the state capital so that's just something to keep in mind is that there really are mass mandates everywhere uh it's just we're trying to track where the states are at the state level cracking things down or the states where the overwhelming majority of school districts are requiring masks and for the actual jab mandate really no changes from last brief california is still going to mandate it make it mandatory but we're waiting to see how that's actually going to logistically work out because there is significant resistance to that as one might imagine and again really no major change to the overall medical resistance tracker and for international issues really the only two things that i just briefly wanted to mention were sweden and denmark so we're starting to see a lot of resistance to a particular medical substance in both of these countries due to people having heart problems from it so you can research this on your own a little bit more because there's a lot of data that goes with this but sweden has stopped the m uh version of the jab for people under the age of 30 and denmark has done the same for people under the age of 18. so we're starting to see a few european nations a few most of the scandinavian countries in the northern european nations uh push back on a lot of this stuff because they're finding out there's a lot of a lot of health care issues that are kind of coming along with this so again uh you know due to youtube's policies we can't talk about it at all and uh even if we did there's even if we did want to fill out youtube's policies there are still uh there's still too much information to to talk about right so the situation has really gotten very inflammatory when it comes to the actual jab itself on the medical side of things and the studies and the science going back and forth from both sides of the debate so that's really up to you to kind of uh to research that some more but i would suggest taking a look at some of this stuff coming out of northern europe it's uh very interesting stuff to say the least so i'm sure that a lot of other incidents have occurred around the around the world that particularly things like the chinese situation has developed a little bit more but i haven't had time to actually sit down and develop that out into an actual concrete analysis for you guys because we've been myself and the rest of the team have been focusing domestically uh for this brief so for next time we will definitely develop out a lot more international stuff to talk about but for now that's pretty much all i've got so again a special thank you to all of our supporters on patreon you guys and gals out there rock and are actually making it a lot easier you guys are helping a lot more than you know and here are your sources for today again the print is very small i know so if you're watching this on a phone it's probably going to be very hard to see you but i did want to put the sources in here at the end of each video for posterity's sake and just in case uh someone finds this video and doesn't and doesn't see the sources in the attachment or anything like that so there's the first slide there's slide two you can pause it and check this stuff out here's slide three and sources slide four so again the sources for this with in pdf format this whole brief is available in pdf format on our odyssey page so again if you're looking at this in many years in the future which is what seems to happen with a lot of our youtube videos you can find that data and in the unlikely event that our odyssey page is shut down for whatever reason or we transfer to something else you can still at least in this particular video file have the sources so it might be a pain to type it out but again we make videos here for the future not just for right now so again for posterity sake like to include all the sources in the actual video file itself so thank you again for watching we'll be back at it with another brief very soon and we will see you next time and as always fight in the shade
Intel Update · 2025-09-13

Intel Update - September 13 - On The Brink

Hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground. This is the Intel update for September 7th through the 13th, 2025. It would be an understatement to say that this week has been quite rough for all. So what I had planned to talk about will have to wait until next week. I'll cover the general events here in just a second, but today we're going to spend most of the time talking about some of the investigative efforts regarding the assassination of Charlie Kirk. As you guys might expect, I'm not going to show anything graphic or anything like that, but we are going to uh take a look at some of the details and sequence of events so that we can have a a better well-rounded picture of what happened and hopefully we can glean something from this and prevent this sort of horror from happening again. So, before we get into that, I I did want to acknowledge that uh this is not the only significant event that has taken place this week. We of course had the surfacing of footage of the horrific murder of Arena Zerka a few weeks ago. Now, that gut punch came out shortly before the Charlie Kirk shooting. So, it's been kind of a double whammy this week. A lot to process, a lot to think about, a lot of lessons to learn. And, uh, we'll get to that in due time. And things in the political sphere have changed quite a bit internationally over the past few days as well. We have the Unite the Kingdom events uh, which have drawn uh, several million people throughout the British Isles this morning, which are currently underway as I'm recording this. The French government has collapsed uh, with a new prime minister being selected. And of course, the same thing happened in Japan. Uh their prime minister resigned as well this week. And we also have tensions continuing in the Middle East in the form of multiple undersea cables being cut in the Red Sea. Most of these events I have already covered or I will plan to cover on Monday and in greater depth. I know that most Americans have been kind of focused on one event this week, so that's what we'll uh talk about here next. So, as nearly all of you have heard, the political commentator Charlie Kirk was assassinated at a college event in Utah a few days ago. The general overview of the story is that he was shot at a Turning Point USA style uh debate at Utah Valley University in Oram, just south of Salt Lake City. Right after the shot was fired, the shooter was able to egress from the area due to the fray from the shooting, but also due to several individuals acting suspiciously or taking credit for being the shooter in the crowd. Uh which afforded the real shooter time to eress from the area. Whether that's intentional or not, we'll we'll get into in a bit. But in either case, the shooter was able to evade capture for a couple of days before eventually being discovered, questioned, and detained by his family about three and a half hours south of the shooting site, and he was eventually turned in to authorities shortly thereafter. As far as the investigation goes, linking this individual who was detained to the shooting scene, the authorities have stated that he was detained wearing the same clothing as observed in the surveillance footage that they provided. And they state that they interviewed uh his roommate, which is an important detail we'll get into in a moment, but they stated that they interviewed his roommate who showed the investigators messages on Discord, which involved the shooter actually talking about some of the phrases and uh carvings, engravings that were made on the bullets themselves. So that's uh that's the most definitive link that this is the individual who conducted the shooting. As of right now, that is the general story of how things have transpired so far. There are a few minor details that uh have changed somewhat over uh over the media coverage of this horrific incident. There is a lot of speculation on a lot of different things. And today we are going to dig into some of the inconsistencies and details that don't necessarily add up regarding this horrific murder. Now, let me state right up front that I know that it is so easy to be contrarian. It is so incredibly fashionable to nitpick and drag every single issue and detail down a rabbit hole. And I say that as one of those inclined to do just that. Uh it is incredibly easy to convince people that everything is a scop these days. And with so much genuine manipulation and gaslighting on the internet these days, I don't blame anyone one bit for thinking that basically everything is a lie, including most of the details in this story, right, in this in this case. But I am aware of how delicate this issue is, right? It's it's fresh in our minds. This is people are still in a state of shock. Uh people are still in a state of grief and I am very aware of what people are feeling right now. That is why I'm going to try to cover what we know and what we don't know and what we need to figure out and as respectful of a manner as possible. No, we are not going to go off on a wild goose chase or, you know, start ragging on the feds just because. My only goal today is to bring information to light that may help identify Charlie's killer. and equally as importantly, anyone else who might be involved. We all owe it to Charlie to do the best that we can to urge this investigation to be conducted properly and that this investigation does not cut corners like all of the other high-profile political shootings so far. And right now, I have very serious concerns that might be uh happening. So zooming in just a little bit to get a slightly closer view of the sequence of events. We have the alleged shooters position on the roof of the lossi center or low center which provides clear line of sight just around the roof of the Sorenson student center to where the uh debate tent was set up on the quad. This exact position also jives with the other witness eyewitness testimony in the form of a video which someone took one of the students took from the ground showing someone on the roof that matches up with the geol location of where this shooter's position was discovered by investigators after the shooting. Some of the other stronger evidence that indicates that this was a shooting position includes the security camera footage from the computer science building. The computer science building had a security camera which you can see in the Google Street View of the parking lot which was peeking out over the parking lot and you can see the roof of the building where the shooter uh took the shot from. So if we take a look at the footage itself provided by the FBI, it's probably the the highest resolution footage that we have received so far. And it does indicate uh the the egress route taken by the shooter. So I've mapped that out as far as we can see. The footage picks up with the alleged shooter making his way north across the rooftop of the building before reaching the northeast corner, dropping to the ground and running uh continuing to run north across the grassy area between the parking lot and the uh walking path there. And the footage stops or is cut off when he reaches the road. As far as I'm aware, as of this morning, uh Saturday morning, this is the only footage that we have of the the suspect actually egressing from the area. So all of the other details regarding what happened after this uh have not been released to the public. So this is kind of what we've got to lean on for for the most part. Now just to address a minor discrepancy or not really a discrepancy but a clarification with this exact footage here. There are a lot of people that state that the shooter was not recorded on video. He absolutely was. There's no chance that he wasn't because the FOV, the field of view for this shot, this this imagery here includes the firing position. So, my personal guess is that the FBI started the footage after he's already run uh some distance away from where he took the shot, but guarantee the FBI has the footage of the shot being fired from this camera, if not others. So, they're just not releasing it to the public, probably for obvious reasons. Uh that's going to be a point of contention for a while. But again, this is a murder investigation. So, my guess is that that you're probably never going to see that footage. Either way, I just did want to address that that in the evidence that the FBI has provided so far, the shooting position that they have uh designated themselves that they have pointed out themselves is in the field of view of the video they provided from the camera on the northwest corner of the computer sciences building. So, that is a fact. Now, getting a little bit more down into the weeds. So far, there are many details that do not explicitly add up regarding the murder of Charlie Kirk. Right now, there are a lot of wild theories circulating. not all of which are being conveyed in a manner that is respectful. Throwing out hairbrain theories and baseless accusations is not usually helpful during a time of extreme grief, pain, and anger. However, if there are details that the FBI may have missed, we need to know, and we need to know right now. Every possible bit of consideration will be granted to allow for the leniency of details changing as the investigation continues and facts continue to be ironed out. However, in the interest of expediency and finding the real killer, some discrepancies need to be openly discussed. In short, a lot of mental gymnastics need to be conducted in order for the FBI's story to line up with their own evidence. I'll state right up front that the official sequence of events is certainly possible, right? It may be rare. It may be hard to believe, but it only had to line up one way, right? If it lined up another way, the shooting might not have happened. But in any case, in the interest of expediency, all possible details must be examined closely. The first bit of discrepancy and uh a little bit of criticism towards the FBI here is their handling of the surveillance footage. In short, they provided probably the most useless security footage to ever exist. Now, this security footage was adequate. Obviously, the killer's father uh probably saw it, or at least that's the story right now, is that he saw it and recognized uh his son from the security footage. And okay, happy happy ending, right? Well, as happy as one can can be. However, if we look at how this was handled during the investigation, this is a point of uh learning for the FBI. They did not provide very clear shots of this individual's face. So, this is the footage that they released. Uh you can see that this is a uh stairwell camera and the shooter would have looked directly at the camera uh as he's turning around uh this the the stairwell to go up to the next flight of stairs. They provided still images. They did not provide video. the video would have provided much needed context and when you try to take a screenshot of a very lowquality video to begin with. You get a lot of artifacting that the human eye cannot process or uh cannot make sense of. Just as a slight side note, human beings are apex predators, right? So, we process information in a very unique way, right? We're always looking out for certain details and we're able to recognize certain things in certain situations but not others. What I'm trying to say is is that the FBI providing these images was not very helpful. If they had provided a lower resolution video as opposed to still shots from that same video, it would have been a lot easier to recognize this individual. Human beings because we are predators, right? We we are uh you know the top of the food chain here. We naturally want to pick out details when movement is involved. So, if they had provided the image or the video of this guy walking up the stairwell as opposed to these still images, you could have censored the other people on the stairwell uh with black boxes or whatever. But if they provided the video, that would have been a lot better than providing still images where there's going to be artifacting. When the human eye looks at a video, our brains can process out that artifacting in the video a lot easier than if it were a still image. And you've got to, you know, start pixel peeping here. So that is just a point of improvement moving forward and something to remember for anyone out there who you know is either the witness of a crime or is trying to look at surveillance footage or anything like that. This is this is a point of learning, right? But in any case, the FBI provided us these images which resulted in the suspect's capture. And while we're examining this footage, let's talk about some of the clothing discrepancies. So I should note that the FBI has not actually made a whole lot of statements themselves. Most of the FBI's information has been conveyed via Governor Cox, the governor of Utah, whereas the FBI investigators have not really been in front of the camera. FBI director Cash Patel has been behind uh the podium speaking about this event, but most of what he has said so far has not really provided any details on the shooting. It's been about how great the FBI is in solving this case, which they didn't. It's a private citizen solved this case for them. So, that is an important thing to remember because of what I'm about to talk about now, which is that you want your investigators, you want the people involved or someone involved or a PAO if nothing else. You want someone involved who knows what they're talking about giving details to the public if you don't want a public outcry. And here's what I mean by that. You can read or watch Governor Cox's statements himself, but he made comments regarding the change of clothing of the suspect. So, according to Governor Cox, the suspect was observed uh wearing his original clothing here, this American flag t-shirt, dark colored hat, and jeans. So that was what he was originally observed going to the campus wearing. The statements from investigators are that he changed on the roof. So once he was in his shooting position on the roof of the building, he changed into a separate set of clothing or altered his appearance in some manner. What what that means, we don't know, but he apparently changed his clothes. That's the official story right now. Furthermore, sometime after the shooting, according to Governor Cox, quote, "At some point, the shooter transitioned back into his original clothing, the the clothing that we see in this image here, which he was arrested wearing." Uh, so that is the official story as of right now. Now, one of the reasons why I've been so hard on the FBI regarding this case is because they have had plenty of time to congratulate themselves on their investigative prowess. Yet, they have not had time to clarify whether or not they actually have the actual shooter in custody. I will account for this when we get to the end. Okay, this this may be wrong. Governor Cox may have been, you know, telling out of school. He may have gotten details slightly wrong. Okay, we will account for that. To me, in the video footage, it doesn't necessarily look like he's wearing anything different. It looks like he's wearing the same clothing, but the official story by the feds, right, their story is is that in this video clip, the video clip of him eressing from the site, he is wearing different clothing than what he was arrested wearing. Do you see how we have to have a mental gymnastics of well, he changed his clothes at some point? That's where we're starting to add in the first little pommel horse to our mental gymnastics uh display here. We'll go with this for now. Okay, we'll go with this as the official story for now. This is the the facts as the Feds state that they are. But confidence is not high. It's one of those cases where there's not enough information or there's not enough uh detail there to disprove it, to disprove the official story, but there's enough there to cast doubt, especially when it comes to the details that we know right now. But again, we're probably going to be watching this video well into the future, right? So, months or years down the line, this detail may have been addressed. Just just putting that out there. The other detail that I have spent some time trying to nail down with not much success, I will admit. The other detail is the rifle itself. The FBI stated that the rifle that was used in the murder had been recovered from a wooded area. And the FBI's own footage of the killer's escape on the rooftop. It is not entirely certain whether or not he has the rifle at that point or not. There are some frames that appear to show him holding a what we what we in the intel business call a long cylindrical object or LCO. I would not feel confident saying either way whether or not this suspect had an LCO had the rifle with him when he made his egress from the roof. It doesn't look like it. I will say that it doesn't look like it, but I I will not slap a high confidence or even a moderate confidence on that. It's low confidence all the way around. So that's just what we have so far. If the FBI wants to produce another frame from another camera, we know that there were a lot of cameras on campus. If they want to provide another frame that shows he had the rifle in his hand, I'll take it, right? I'll happily happily concede that he didn't leave the roof with a rifle. So, with regards to where the rifle was recovered, that is an unknown detail. We don't know the exact GPS coordinates of where that rifle was recovered from. We don't know if the suspect threw it off the roof and it just wasn't on camera. We don't know if the suspect carried the rifle with him or uh if he broke it down. Breaking down a an Mouser M98 is not not entirely a quick process. Um but I suppose it could be done. Not when you're trying to run for your life, right? To escape from the the shooting scene. But either way, what I'm trying to say is there's a lot of inconsistencies here with regards to the event from the moment the shot was fired to when the suspect was arrested. Right? There are gaps in the story, which is to be expected, but there are also details that are not entirely in line with what makes sense, right? So, that is an unknown. The location of where the rifle was discovered. Was the rifle carried by the suspect off of the roof or was it thrown off the roof? And where was the rifle actually recovered? What was the exact GPS coordinate of where it was found? Okay, that's a pretty big detail that we need to know. There were also people in the FBI's own footage walking around watching this guy run away from the scene. If he had a rifle, even if it was wrapped up in a towel, like they state or uh some kind of fabric covering, that's going to be something to question these people about. Did you happen to see this dude trying to run, you know, sprint away from this uh the shooting location with a gun barrel poking out somewhere? Because it does not seem like he made what we might in the business call a controlled exit. This dude was in flight mode, right? Absolutely moving as fast as possible with no consideration for uh evidence prevention, uh evidence collection prevention or any kind of concealment or anything. This dude was booking it, right? So, you would think there would be some kind of evidence that kind of indicates where he dropped the rifle or where the rifle became separated from the shooter. So, the point where the rifle transitioned out of the shooter's possession is a very critical point for what we'll talk about here in a moment. But for now, let's stick with the rifle and what I'm calling the magic scope. The magic scope here continues to be a point of discrepancy due to the alleged killer having clear photographs of himself shooting rifles on his social media pages. And these images show a clear measurement of his proper eye relief on display to the world. In short, this rifle recovered at the scene as it was would have been less than ideal for the shooter to have used it as it was configured. Considering that the shooter clearly had firearms experience, it is very unlikely that the shooter would have mounted the scope on this firearm this poorly. Anyone who has spent any sort of time whatsoever uh around any kind of ranged weapon like this would know that this scope is way too far back. You would not be able to see out of this scope very clearly at all. Is it impossible to use this way? No. Is it challenging? Yes. It is certainly possible for the FBI's version of events as released to the public to be true. This is why I've spent so much time on trying to investigate this magic scope situation here because it's important uh to understand and know when the rifle became separated from the shooter. This is a critical point of any investigation uh for for any shooting really. And it's important for a few different reasons because this is one of those details, right? The murder weapon. This is a critical part of the investigation. This is one of the most significant pieces of evidence that this guy is the guy who conducted the shooting. Right? The reason that I've taken an interest in this magic scope theory is that there are a couple of wildly different theories as to how this scope ended up in this configuration. Any investigator who looked at that rifle sitting in that box photographed by the FBI agents potato phone camera should have seen that scope in the wrong position. so far to the rear that it does not make sense. So, here are the four main theories that I can think of of why this photograph exists. I'm very interested in why this one photograph exists. So, the first theory is that the scope was properly mounted, right? It was uh forward where it should be, but it shifted into an improbable position during the escape. either it got jostled or knocked or even disassembled by the shooter if you want to believe that sequence of events, but it it got changed in some way after the shooting was conducted. So, it lost its zero uh and was jostled in some way to result in it being far to the rear as discovered in this image. The second theory is that the scope was never really properly positioned and that the shooter took that shot with a very suboptimal sight picture. I say this theory is pretty unlikely due to the suspect having some knowledge of firearms. We have photographs, many photographs of him shooting firearms with a proper sight picture, properly extended stock to uh fit his uh shooting profile, right? So, he knows what a proper sight picture is. And if he had shouldered this rifle, he would have immediately known the scope was in a wrong position. If this is how the the shot was taken. So, the second theory is possible. It's possible that this guy was an idiot and he just uh mounted his scope all wrong and by the time that he went to go conduct the shooting, he somehow made that shot with only seeing a very very compromised sight picture or he was not properly shouldering the rifle. There's a bunch of different things that you can nest under theory 2 here, but the the general theory is that it was never in the proper position. It was zeroed like this and it uh he somehow made the shot with it like this. The third theory is that he did make the shot with this scope in this position, but it wasn't his rifle. So, that is the theory which is most interesting to me. Remember, the text messages uh indicated that this individual picked up the rifle from a drop point. Now, did he put that drop point together like in like investigators are insinuating or did somebody else did this rifle belong to the shooter? We don't have these basic details. I've seen some information that suggests this rifle did not belong to the shooter and that it was illegally stolen or borrowed without the owner knowing about it. Uh so that might explain why this scope was all jacked up and it didn't fit the shooter. If somebody else was uh less proficient with firearms than he, they might have mounted the scope in this manner and that would have uh made sense, right, as to why this was uh the way that it was and that the shooter recognized this and that the shooter took the shot anyway uh managing with a scope that was mounted and zeroed uh the best he could. Right? So, that's theory number three. Personally, I think that theory is most likely, which is why I'm spending so much time talking about this investigation, because there may be other people involved here. The fourth theory, which is what I'll call the quote unquote fringe theory, is that he never was the shooter. He never shot this rifle. This rifle was left for people to conveniently find, and that's that, right? So, classic case of big assassinations where the murder weapon, the alleged murder weapon doesn't actually uh work, right? It's like finding a sniper's, you know, rifle that was used to kill a certain person and there's no firing pin or something inside it, right? The classic quintessential impossible rifle situation. I don't know how much weight there is behind that theory. Is is there ever any way to prove that at all? I I don't know. I highly doubt that the FBI is going to do a ranged ballistic test with this rifle. I very highly doubt that. What they are probably going to do is fire one round and one round only in their uh ballistics chamber to get a slug to compare the rifling uh and do rifling analysis on the slug uh if that if the slug is recovered from the crime scene which is for right now it has not been recovered. So, I would be very curious as to see uh the FBI story is if you take this to a 200 yard range, can this rifle as discovered at the crime scene, can this rifle even hit that target? Of course, you can always put a caveat on that, right? You can always say, "Look, uh the scope was damaged after uh after it fell off the roof." All right, fine. But you've got to account for that. And so far, they have not. Keep in mind that this magic scope theory here, this is the most gratuitous telling of events, right? This is giving every possible chance to the FBI for their own story to be correct. And it will be up for all of you to decide whether or not that is too much uh too much skewing to give them in their own favor. So either way, that's what I've got on the magic scope here. So that's it for the physical evidence recovered at the scene. Now, here is where I think the most suspicious part of the entire story comes out. The text messages. So, the FBI, if we recall, recovered text messages or some kind of digital platform messages. They claim it was Discord, but we'll get to that. They recovered text messages between the shooter and the shooter's roommate. That is a point of discrepancy. The shooter lived at home with his family. To the best of my knowledge, he did not have a roommate. So, who is this roommate? But that is what the FBI states uh that he had a roommate uh and this roommate was discussing the shooting with the killer to include the phrases that were engraved on the bullets uh that were recovered at the scene. To me, that is a pretty substantial bit of evidence that would turn the roommate into one of the lead suspects as being an accomplice. I'm just some guy on the internet, but that guy might be somebody to uh look into because as far as what Governor Cox said, once again, you want the FBI making FBI statements, not the governor of a state, right? But as far as what Governor Cox stated, the FBI took out their phone during the interview and took photographs, like shaky cam hand, you know, stabilized photographs of the roommate's phone showing these images or showing these text messages. So, I get it. That makes sense, right? For an investigator to do that during an interview. That's uh you know what I personally would have done, too. But the next step that probably would have been a wise move to take is to take out a plastic evidence baggie and seize that phone right then and there because you now have evidence. Okay? You have probable cause that concerns life and death. Again, I'm not a lawyer, but this would seem to be a case that overrides the Fourth Amendment protections against unreasonable search and seizure, right? Reasonable search and seizure is authorized, right? So again, uh I'm not sure if the FBI did that. It would have been wise for them to do so, but considering that the governor said they only took photographs of those Discord messages. I'm not entirely certain what the FBI did. And to be honest, there has been enough ridiculousness from the FBI in this case already to question the integrity of that. You would think, you would think the default is, well, of course, of course they took photos at first and then they seized the digital records. Well, here's the thing. What is Discord's story this morning? Immediately they said, "Oh, yeah. We found the the shooter's account. Uh, we know his username and have all the metadata for his account. Uh, but we didn't see anything incriminating. Who's to say they didn't just delete it?" The forensic the the digital forensics of this are always going to be questionable. Anytime the FBI is involved in anything to do with anything on the computer, any kind of digital evidence, it it's just very sketchy, right? Especially considering that the FBI has routinely routinely seized phones as evidence for the smallest possible crime. They've put people in holding cells for 48 hours without cause for the smallest possible crime or even when there was no crime committed. Yet, in this case, at least what Governor Cox says is their field agents decided that it was the best course of action to take photos, not even screenshots, but actual like camera photos of evidence that could not just blow the case wide open, but indicate that there are other people involved in a terrorist cell. Excuse me, but that is not exactly something that's quite comforting. Of course, I'm sure the FBI has got every possible excuse or explanation for all of that and they just say, "Ah, Governor Cox is wrong. We did seize the phone, but that's not what they said, and we have to go on what they said so far." So, if there was at least one other person involved in the attack, as in the alleged roommate who was discussing the attack with the alleged killer, if there's one guy involved, there's a good chance that a third or even more were likewise involved, too. As we have seen from the lunatics on the internet, the sometimes muchbeloved or much maligned skitso theorists on the internet, there have been a lot of people who have been identified in the Salt Lake City area specifically cheering uh celebrating or even saying that they wish Charlie Kirk harm on the day of the attack. So, your suspect list is not Tyler Robinson, you know, period. Your suspect list is Tyler Robinson plus anybody else he was talking to online. And based on the engravings that were found on the bullets that the FBI has confirmed, you know, nine different times now, this dude was terminally online. This dude was consuming so much online brain rot content that uh it's very unlikely that he was communicating with just himself, right? It's very likely that he had a group of people that he told about the attack or helped him plan the attack, right? And I say that because very recently the FBI field office in Salt Lake City, so this exact office has had its, you know, own set of personnel issues. The most recent agent in charge of this field office was Matab Sayed, who was an immigrant from Pakistan that joined the FBI after 9/11. Uh she was hired earlier this year in that role, but she was also rapidly fired after a few months uh with no real explanation, but allegedly due to incompetency. They've had big shakeups at this exact field offices in charge of investigating this. Right. So due to these developments, can can we be blamed? Can the American people be blamed for doubting the integrity of the process in this exact place at this exact time? I don't think so. I think that there's pretty big integrity problems here. So all of that out of the way, right? All of these discrepancies out of the way, let's balance this out a little bit here and let's let's let's reexamine from a higher level. Are we just going down useless rabbit holes or are we trying to get to the bottom of this case? Right. So, here are some normal things that seem suspicious right now but could be explained later on. Right? The the general thoughts and general concerns that are pertinent to pretty much every investigation. The first thing to remember is that details change. Okay? What is true right now might be false in just a couple hours, right? It must it may be false in just 5 minutes too, right? So you can't look at a press conference from two days ago and compare it to a press conference from three days ago. Now you can to some degree if there are major changes in the story, right? But little tiny details here and there. These can be indicators of a much more significant problem. I've tried to highlight some of those today. But they can also be nothing. They can be easily explained away. Right? The second thing to remember again highle wavetop stuff. The second thing to remember is that investigators are normally very bad at public speaking and they're not so great at conveying the details of their investigation to the public. We have seen enough people in shirts with logos on them standing behind a podium talking and speaking not so correctly regarding their own case. I don't say that as an insulting manner. It's just a fact. Okay, I get it. I I would rather, you know, an investigator be good at investigating rather than be good at public speaking and conveying details to the public. Uh but in this case it's important right because this will lead to confusion and contradictory details just like both Trump shootings uh the both assassination and attempts on President Trump's life and with this case and with other high-profile assassinations or assassination attempts even just around the world the the investigators are not so uh great at conveying these details to the public and the reason why is this third point which is that the priority is an investigation not informing the public right Contrary to popular belief, the average user scrolling Twitter for updates on a story is not the first person that an investigator thinks about when they're trying to convey information to the public, right? Their job is to investigate the crime and get the killer and get anybody who might be uh an accomplice, right? So, their top priority is not you, right? Their top priority is not the public. Their top priority is the investigation, which is perfectly respectable. That's perfectly fine. But it also just means that we've got to glean things a lot of times and we don't get a lot of help in explaining things. Right? And the fourth factor to remember which is probably the most important thing for everything I've said today is that investigators routinely withhold critical evidence from public view. They're not giving you the whole story. They're not going to give you the tape that they have of the shooting. That's not going to happen. They're not going to explain why that scope was in that manner. And they're not going to give you the GPS coordinate of where that rifle was found. It's just not going to happen. If the killer is the killer that they say, okay, fine. We'll accept that for now. But what I don't accept personally is that this guy acted alone. And that is the current story. I don't think he acted alone. All of the evidence so far, even their own evidence states that you have a suspect, the roommate, like you have a guy who has evidence of this guy communicating with other people, and there has been very little discussion of that. Right? I get it. They're working through other things, but considering that they say, you know, they start off a press conference, it was we got him. All right. You you know, well, yeah, you may have the shooter. I I'll buy that. Okay. The skeptic in me doesn't buy that. But I'll buy that for now. I'll give you that one. But what I won't give is the fact that you literally said you had a suspect that was an accomplice that admitted to being an accomplice and you're just going to let him walk, right? You're not you're not going to say, "Look, we're investigating other leads." In a couple of weeks, it may turn out that was a trick that they were actually investigating other people and they wanted to keep uh any accompllices that they were tracking down. They wanted to keep them from running. Fair enough. All right. But right now, it it doesn't necessarily look like it. It looks like they're rolling it up and they're putting a bow on it and calling it a day. The alleged killer confessing to the crime is going to halt most investigative efforts. And, you know, once they uh they're they're looking they're looking for every possible excuse for this to be a lone gunman situation, right? That's the That's what they're publicly insinuating. They may not be directly stating it, but they're insinuating. They are desperately trying for this to be just some, you know, crazy leftist activist. And they're not really publicly interested, at least publicly, again, interested in examining that this guy may have had help here. Right? Once again, all of that considered, right, we're going to be as gracious as possible to the FBI, even though they never give that consider consideration to anybody else. We're going to give them that. We're going to give them the graciousness of their own story being true and most of the details that they have stated being true. And because of that, there are three main narratives that could be potentially possible. Right? The first one is that everything, every single detail in the official story is correct. Robinson conducted the shooting. Robinson acted alone. And every single detail, every single discrepancy that I have found and others have found, some including some discrepancies that I have not mentioned yet. All of these uh discrepancies can easily be explained and there is a neat little bow for every little possible detail. Okay, that's the story number one. Story number three is the exact opposite, right? The fringe position, as I'll call it, because I don't know of what else to call it, right? The theory that Robinson was not the shooter. uh the rifle was staged, that his the clothing debacle was actually because he didn't change clothes. It was a different person, right? The security camera footage didn't look like him and the FBI conveniently has left out all the screenshots that show that show that fact, right? And that even if he was the shooter, he was the guy running off the roof. He was the guy who pulled the shot and he did have in that ri that rifle in his possession that there are others who were involved to some degree. So that is the what I'll call the fringe theory for now because again I don't have a better word for it. But the position that's in the middle narrative two here the plausible alternative to the official story is that Robinson conducted the shooting but he had help right either he planned the attack with the help of other people or he communicated with people before the attack which is confirmed by the authorities own statements on this. Right? So their statement that he acted alone yet he talked about the attack on discord with other people that is directly contradictory and there is no way they can square that circle right they are lying one way or the other either he talked with other people about the attack or he did not and those people who he talked about the attack with knew about the attack. Therefore in every court in the land they would be an accomplice. They would be an accessory if nothing else. And in terms of the magic scope, the rifle, right, the the he may have been the shooter, but it wasn't his rifle, right? It belonged to somebody else. And uh that additional person either knew or did not know how to mount a scope. And that can explain the magic scope theory away pretty easily. So those are the three main theories uh regarding the the three main narratives, I should say, regarding what happened here. Now, I guess spending all this time talking about this is probably a farce, right? because a personal confession to the murder that's you know hook line and sinker for the investigation. The suspect is alive and you know him confessing to the crime is going to halt most investigative efforts. So the details that are very contradictory right now they're probably going to remain contradictory for a while. Right? They've got their man. That's how they started the the press conference. We got him right. So because of that, the deductive reasoning that led this investigation and led to every bit of evidence along the way, that deductive reasoning is not going to transition to an inductive analysis of the facts that can't easily be explained. Details or facts or little little details, right, that can't be explained that that last puzzle piece that will not fit in the puzzle. Those pieces are just going to be set off to the side and we're just going to look at an incomplete puzzle forever, right? That's how these investigative efforts work. That's just how the situation develops. Most of the discrepancies identified so far are the types of discrepancies that often arise with any criminal case. Like I mentioned before, right? There are going to be discrepancies. But here's the thing. It is the job of the professional paid investigators with access to top secret investigative tools to investigate these crimes. Why do you think Palunteer has a half a trillion dollar market cap? Right? There's a reason for that. It is not up to us. It is not up to random volunteers on the internet with PowerPoint and some free time. This is not our job. The issue and the whole point for talking about this is that people like us cannot be certain that the skills of federal investigators are up to the task. Thus, the investigative efforts being undertaken all over social media, right? and the intense desire to ensure that not only this case is handled properly, but also that lessons are learned to ensure that the next killer does not evade capture as well. We owe it to Charlie to do this right. Right. And we only have one chance to get it right. So, closing today on on a more personal note, I guess I I would not consider myself to be one of Charlie's fans as I'm I'm not really involved in this his sphere of influence or or his politics or anything like that, but I am extremely angry about this murder myself. Um, I am mostly angry at myself uh for not working hard enough to soften the blow of what was to come, such as days like this. I know there are a lot of people out there who have seen a lot of bad things in life and and you guys know that there are some things that society at large should not be witnessed to. It would be better in my mind uh at this point if people were just to remain ignorant of the horrors of the world and the situation at hand and if they would just let people like me handle it quietly, right? And and let me have to wade through all of these horrific videos and all of these really bad things, right? I would really rather this not be aired on everyone's social media feed. Same thing with Arena Zeritzka, right? Like these these videos are very brutal, right? So half of me wants people to never see this kind of thing. Uh people people in polite society should never see this kind of thing. Uh they should just leave it to people like me. And the other half of me is no, they need to see it to understand uh how the situation is. And I think that my desire to uh not want people to see this kind of thing, that was a poor judgment call, it would seem because, you know, most people have seen it now anyway. Uh and and most people are becoming aware of how dark things can get. Look, you can't look at the Charlie Kirk assassination video. You cannot look at the video of Arena and not be completely out of your depth. And people like me who have spent a decade, you know, scrolling through Live Leak and uh U Vids in a professional manner to try to find these bad people. People like me could have done a better job at guiding these people through it. So I know there's a lot of people out there who says don't avert your eyes from this situation. Look at these videos. I I that's up for you to decide. But I'm saying that if you're going to adopt that position, then you need to help talk these people through it. Because I've seen a lot of people, there are a lot of people in my own sphere who are not used to seeing these horrific things. And they need someone to talk them through it. You can't just throw it at them and say, "Look, you know, you have to talk people through it. You have to help them understand what what what this means for the world and so on, right? You can't just be crass about it. You there has to be decorum. There has to be respect. There has to be understanding and there has to be a lot more delicacy with these kinds of things. People are not naturally inclined to look at this kind of thing and those people like me who are used to seeing this kind of thing uh we have to do what we can to help walk people through walk people through it. People in our own lives we have to do what we can to walk our own people through it. Right? There's going to be a lot of people. I know after the arena video came out, uh I know that a lot of people showed these things to their families so that they could cement how serious the world is today. I get it. That is your call. I'm just saying be careful and do what you can is if you're going to if you're going to take that stance, it is your responsibility to make sure that it's done in a manner that is actually going to be helpful and not just psychologically damaging. though. Overall, right now, emotions are extremely high, probably on par or even higher than the day that President Trump himself was shot. Kirk's death has been shocking for reasons that many people might not even understand right now. I'm seeing a lot of people, and I'm I guess I'm one of those people myself, who didn't really align with him on very much, but they are absolutely devastated by this. And I think they're devastated because of what this means. Uh it's not just the death of one person, it's the death of moderation. It's the death of peaceful talking and peaceful solutions. That may or may not be true in time, but it sure does feel like it right now. So, right now, while things are still fresh, the situation is still very raw for a lot of people at this point. Temperance, patience, and the pursuit of discernment are the best courses of action at this time. Nothing will be solved by knee-jerk reactions on either side of the political spectrum. Make no mistake, this is not about politics. This is a spiritual war more than anything else. This murder was a wake-up call for many. It was a wake-up call for conservatives who upon seeing the outcry of support for the killer might not have realized that the previous threats and rhetoric coming from u a good portion of the far left. Th those arguments were not hyperbole. Those threats were not uh empty. Likewise, on the left, it was a wake-up call for many who might not have realized what their ideology truly stands for. And upon seeing the absolutely sickening behavior from some of the far-left individuals and politicians over the past couple of days, there are indeed many average people who are on the political left who have made the decision that this behavior from those on their own team is not what they stand for themselves. We have to remember that if there were ever a time for grace to be afforded to those who regardless of political beliefs want to seek repentance and genuinely make an effort to stop this madness. Now is the time for that discernment and grace to be applied. We should all be so fortunate to upon our own death receive the honor and respect that Charlie Kirk has received from even his most staunch adversaries and enemies. Everyone has a role to fill in this world and it is the duty of those so capable to do what they can in order to ensure that this madness comes to an abrupt halt. What that looks like is going to be argued over time and it's going to vary from person to person. But now that the nation is on the precipice of the abyss, every single effort must be made. It must be made to bring us back from the brink. And that is exactly what we're going to do. I think that we're all going to use or we all should be using our skills uh to better civilization, to better humanity, and what that looks like. Again, it's going to be argued, right? We're going to argue about what are the best solutions for this, what are the best uh ways to to fix some of these issues. All right, we can we can do that. Um and we're going to be doing that over the next few days and weeks and months. But right now, uh we can take some time to reflect. Take some time to think about it. Take some time to think about what you can do to help stop this madness, to help bring a sense of honor and decorum to a place where there is no peace. Right? I'm not going to say everybody's going to hold hands and sing songs right over this. And I'm not saying that's the solution either. I'm just saying that there are a lot of ways to improve the situation around us. It's a very vague and broad statement, but I mean for it to be. There are ways to improve the world around us. There are. And we have gotten sloppy. We have gotten lazy. And we have every opportunity and every chance and every obligation to do what we can to do better. Think of this in the gym. Think of this when you're out and about in society. Think of this when
The Wire · 2026-03-18

The Wire - March 18, 2026

…Within Iran, Israel/American forces struck the South Pars Natural Gas Facility, one of the largest LNG facilities in the world.
The Wire · 2026-04-07

The Wire - April 7, 2026

…AMERICAN/ISRAELI FORCES TARGET SOUTH PARS FACILITY IN IRAN. TERRORIST ATTACK REPORTED IN TURKEY. PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCES TWO-WEEK CEASEFIRE IN IRAN. ARSON ATTACK REPORTED AT WAREHOUSE IN CALIFORNIA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Iran: This morning…
Intel Update

Intel Update - June 13 - The Boiling Frog

…So, the United States has hit everything from the South Pars gas field to a dozen different military targets up and down the Iranian coastline, mostly centering around the major port of Bandar Abbas in the…
The Wire · 2026-03-19

The Wire - March 19, 2026

…https://x.com/atvkw/status/2034127304398385420 Trump statement on South Pars: https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2034453527892791768 Pentagon 1: https://www.barrons.com/articles/pentagon-defense-stocks-lockheed-martin-boeing-5a58f728 Pentagon 2: https://apnews.com…
Intel Update · 2026-03-29

Intel Update - March 28 - Casino of War

e Iranians are probably thinking about is that if they agree to any sort of peace agreement, the Israelis will just bomb them anyway, since it has already been demonstrated by the strike at South Pars
Intel Update · 2026-03-22

Intel Update - March 21 - Counting Chickens

…The Israelis targeted the South Pars gas facility, which sparked a major international incident due to the Qataris being dragged into this war more directly. And as a result of that attack, various messaging has been…
Intel Update · 2022-06-25

June 25 Intel Update: "Cause Unknown, Investigation Underway"

…caused this train to derail lest people get some ideas from the internet right moving up to south dakota back on the 14th of april there was a pretty big fire at a cabinet manufacturing business…