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S2 briefing · 2021-03-13

"Nope" - The Art of Noncompliance

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Intel Update · 2022-12-06

Rapid Intel Update: Moore County, NC

hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground this is a special topical brief that is going to cover the critical infrastructure attack that occurred in Moore County North Carolina and the subsequent humanitarian crisis that is ongoing in the area gonna try to keep things short and sweet today for those of you who are in the affected area so as not to drain too much bandwidth so let's get right to it on December 3rd at approximately 7 pm at least two electrical substations in Moore County North Carolina suffered catastrophic damage as a result of a deliberate attack local authorities have confirmed the attacks were carried out most likely with small arms electrical power remains offline for most of the county and The Limited repairs have restored power to some customers it is unclear as to when the majority of repairs will be completed state and federal agencies are coordinating the subsequent investigation and a curfew has been mandated for the entirety of Moore County forcing citizens to stay inside their homes from 9 pm until 5 a.m right now we're not entirely sure what all of this means however deliver attacks on critical infrastructure are relatively rare but this recent attack highlights once again the vulnerability of our electrical grids throughout the United States atmospherics based off of official press conferences and briefings indicate that the culprit of this attack deliberately chose sites that would cause maximum damage though to be fair attacking pretty much any electrical facility would result in catastrophic damage so it's unclear as to how local authorities arrived at this conclusion keeping things in perspective we have seen a sharp increase in critical infrastructure attacks around the country over the past few years though these attacks have mostly been confined to major cities which have garnered very little media attention the most recent similar style attack to this one uh took place in 2013 and is known as the Metcalf sniper attack which occurred in California that attack back in 2013 was a little bit more widespread 17 electrical Transformers were affected during that attack however the impact overall was not that severe because electricity could be rerouted around the affected substations in Moore County the two substations that were attacked really were kind of the single point of failure for the region so uh when they went offline they have stayed offline for the most part until repairs can be conducted from my wheelhouse the far more concerning aspects of this attack are to fold one the location itself and two the immediate martial law lockdown via curfews first off Moore County North Carolina is not just a random location it is home to Southern Pines which along with surrounding communities is a nondescript place in the heart of North Carolina that just so happens to be home to a significant number of Special Forces soldiers and their families without getting too deep into the details Southern Pines close proximity to various special forces training locations and headquarters means that Moore County North Carolina is a relatively special place none of this is a grand secret but an asymmetric style attack occurring in this of all places is quite concerning additional concerns around the immediate Declaration of a curfew for local citizens following the attacks on the power grid I myself have never heard of a curfew being put in place immediately following a power outage no matter if the power outage was deliberate or not to be absolutely clear local authorities have not officially declared martial law but any individual with common sense cannot help but note that a curfew is a de facto state of Martial law albeit without a formal declaration whatever the case local citizens are paying the price of someone else's crimes and will continue to do so as long as local authorities maintain the curfew which currently has no scheduled end interestingly enough local police scanner traffic indicates that local crimes have not spiked at all several days after the event has occurred leaving the rationale behind the implementation of a curfew even more unclear we're not seeing Mass rioting we're seeing one or two instances of shoplifting so why is there still a curfew why was there a curfew in the first place this this may seem like a trivial or biased observation but atmospherics throughout the local area indicate that many locals might not be too concerned with the power being out or if they can deal with that but they are quite strongly opposed to the curfew again bearing in mind the unique population demographics of the area the situation on the ground is that these seemingly trivial social observations can be much more significant than one first realizes for those of us located outside the affected area this is most certainly a wake-up call demonstrating yet again the fragility of our electrical grid and the Zeal that some individuals have for power and control even at the smallest local level moving to more positive things local communities throughout Moore County have stepped up and are providing a great number of resources for locals who are affected by the power outage so let's go down the list for shelters the Moore County Sports Complex is offering showers and hot meals which are available on site there that's also an American Red Cross site so they have American red across resources there as well also the First Baptist Church in Carthage and the Aberdeen First Baptist Church are offering showers and the church in Aberdeen has a laundry units available from 7 A.M to 7pm moving on to food the New Covenant Fellowship Church is offering soup and sandwiches which are provided at noon the Yates stagger Baptist Churches offering food at their Whispering Pines Church location from 5 PM until basically the Supply runs out and the cranes Creek Fire Department is offering places for food trucks to set up and distribute food there so far they've had hot dogs and chicken gumbo and things like that from noon until five moving on to charging stations places where people can charge their devices the Pinehurst Fire Station Number 91 is open to the public from 8 30 to 5 for you to come and charge your devices same thing with the Southern Pines Police Department specifically their Haney community room which is a warming Center and also a place for you to charge your devices the Grace Church in Southern Pines is offering Lunch hot drinks and charging stations from noon to two the Southern Pines library is open for Library Services I'm not sure if you can check out books but they certainly have them there for you to read if you're looking for something to do they also are offering snacks and device charging from 10 to 4. these Seven Lakes Baptist Church is open from noon to 4 to provide entertainment for children as well as a place to to stay warm and the Rockfish Church of Aberdeen is offering lunch Wi-Fi some work centers for those of us who are still kind of working at home and charging stations are available as well additionally all Food Lion locations throughout Moore County which are the locations mostly in Aberdeen Seven Lakes Carthage and Southern Pines all of those locations are offering one free case of bottled water per family until they run out so I'm not sure if they're still going to be available or Not by the time this brief goes out but these are the resources that are currently being advertised both on local media as well as through social media again I'm not sure if these resources are all going to be available available every single day This Disaster continues or if this is just kind of a one thing one-time deal thing today but I just wanted to put those resources out there for those of you stuck in the area and finally here is a slide of local contact information mostly political representation uh if you're into that sort of thing but also the non-emergency line for the sheriff's office in case you need something is there as well so again just wanted to put this quick brief out sorry we didn't have it out the same day that the disaster occurred but we were running through our own little power issues here so um so that's pretty much all I've got at this moment we'll continue to figure out what what the impacts are going to be as well as an ETA for when the electricity might come back online right now there really isn't any uh update uh the the sheriff's department is kind of bracing people for uh This Disaster to continue at least until December 8th but it's really unclear as to when things are going to be back online so far Powers kind of been cycled on and off for a lot of people throughout the area so you might have power come on for a few minutes and then go out again so just for uh people in the area just be advised that might happen so so thank you again for tuning in I've got another brief lined up right now that I'm kind of working on but I wanted to push this section of it out really quickly because a lot of people are becoming more and more uh affected by this electrical outage so thanks again for watching everyone and we will see you next time and as always fight in the shade
S2 briefing · 2021-06-23

Satellite Communications

[Music] when it comes to the world of satellite communications choosing between the different options out there can be quite confusing even with a seemingly endless amount of product reviews that are paid for by the companies themselves and that's kind of an issue almost all of the product reviews out there on these devices are from the perspective of a couple of different kinds of people such as the hipster backpacker who wouldn't survive a disaster even with the gps communicator or the weekend traveler aka small business owner who does a product review because they are trying to sell the device to you also most actual reviews of satellite communications technology seem to all kind of fall into the same category of going to some remote and scenic location turning the device on sending a message and marveling that it works in other words a lot of people are impressed with the overall technology of satellite communication or even the physical device itself which is perfectly fine satellite communication in the palm of one's hand is very impressive to say the least and all of the satellite communicators currently being sold on the market right now will function they will work depending on what you're trying to do with them but therein lies the problem trying to match a technology to a capability and not the other way around a lot of people purchase these devices and pick a monthly subscription plan with the goal of making it fit into their adventures people buy a gadget and then try to figure out a use for it and even more dangerously some people change their risk management priorities because they think that having a magic sos button in their pocket makes them invincible we think that a better thought process would be to figure out what capabilities you need and then choosing a technology that fulfills this requirement with as little modification to your mission and your risk as possible and these days when everything is more expensive and people are struggling financially we think a different approach is needed especially when it comes to purchasing expensive products such as these so today we're going to cover a few different options for satellite communications from a perspective of our unique needs now let's begin by talking about why we individually or as an organization need satellite communications capabilities as one can probably imagine we are not the typical north face wearing soy latte swigging ultra light eco hippie backpackers when we go out into the wilderness areas where there are no communications we aren't going there to align our chakras or become one with mother earth we have real work to do training setting up observation posts building off-grid shelters cashing supplies all the while writing and creating content for you guys and gals out there and in addition to making sure that things are okay back on the home front where civil unrest has become a part of our daily lives so we need a communications plan that will function all of the time if we cannot get a message back home within a pre-established communications window we don't sit back and say oh well that gives us more time to unplug unwind and enjoy nature nope we stop what we're doing and we work our way down the plan to make these communications happen also all of us tend to travel internationally a decent bit mostly to nations and locations that aren't particularly friendly i personally have used my satellite communicators in conflict zones more times than i have for hiking or backpacking which is something that's not exactly advisable for reasons we'll get into later but the bottom line is that sometimes we are on the grid but the grid itself is not suitable in a lot of countries one cannot simply call 9-1-1 or their version of it and even if a country has a national emergency phone network that actually works you might find that calling the local government authorities to your exact location might not be the best option for survival which leads into something that's important to point out because it will affect every device that we're going to talk about today which is the concept of what constitutes an emergency in ye oldie worldly times back up just a couple of decades ago before satellite communicators were mainstream we had devices like the ultra simple personal locator beacons basically it was just a small device that when you hit the sos button that signal was transmitted to a satellite which beamed it down to a rescue center where the staff then contacted the appropriate agencies of whatever country or location that you are in so one might be able to see the problem with these early devices they are purely binary either you are having a great time and everything is perfect or it's a life or death emergency that will require the military police fire department's coast guard and everyone else to come get you well sometimes we face issues that are not life and death but they could be if left unaided for too long so for us this is a huge criteria being able to send messages requesting help but not necessarily pulling out all the stops and calling in the cavalry and finally the last consideration and one of the major reasons that we tend to use satellite communicators in on-grid locations is privacy all modern smartphones are built from the ground up for very specific purposes the same devices that were created to connect people in ways never done before are now essentially mini surveillance devices in your pocket the primary function of most smartphones has become to spy on you ounce for ounce and gram for gram smartphones are the most sensor dense intelligence collection platforms on or off the earth and this isn't just something to be concerned about when it comes to general privacy either these days merely having a smartphone presents a clear and present danger to the average citizen remember people have been arrested solely because their cell phones pinged them being in the general vicinity of a significant event i don't know about you but i would hate to have been just a dude walking his dog past the us capitol building on january 6th wondering what the hubbub is all about because if i had done that my smartphone would have dutifully reported back my entire existence to national intelligence agencies and i would have been a part of several investigations now it is true that satellite communicators are not secure either national intelligence agencies can break and crack pretty much anything that has a battery however when it comes to tracking satellite communications we're talking an entirely different set of sensors it would take a lot more than your local police department with a stingray device to even know that your satellite communication took place actually we're not aware of any local or state police agency that can actually intercept satellite communications at all only the highest levels of nation-state level intelligence agencies can intercept these communications but even then the crowd of people that can do this stuff within those agencies is very very small think about it this way what would you rather use to communicate with a device that is being used by literally everyone from walmart and google to every single law enforcement agency in the united states to spy on you or a device which is still being used to spy on you but only a couple of national level intelligence agencies possess the means to do so point is the likelihood of incidental and accidental collection in the average american city is much much lower with satellite devices obviously if you don't want to be spied on by the nsa fbi or cia then don't use any device that has a single line of code or takes a battery that's the general rule of thumb that we analysts live by anyway nothing digital is secure not even your alarm clock or electric toothbrush but when it comes to everyday life in a world of mass surveillance i myself feel a lot more comfortable walking around with my satellite communicator out listening for messages from my family and friends while my smartphone lives inside its faraday bag only coming out if i get a message on my satellite communicator that requires better communications so for me personally and for most of our staff here satellite communicators are not just a tool for the backcountry but an everyday tool for reducing digital signatures in urban environments and having a bit more privacy in a mass surveillance state obviously as satellite communication devices become more and more mainstream the levels at which satellite communications are spied on will become more and more localized but for now this seems to be a pretty good option for at least limiting the total number of agencies that can spy on you so for people who have our specific needs which is increasingly including the average person living in the united states there are a few different options for satellite communicators so let's work our way down the list and talk about some of the considerations for each style of device and to begin with we will be getting the elephant in the room out of the way the satellite phone sat phones are the ultimate cream of the crop when it comes to off-grid communications there is currently no technological device that tops the sat phone when it comes to capabilities and here's why sat phones don't just make phone calls nowadays most of them can send text messages send emails and even surf the web albeit using what's basically a dial-up connection and an interface that looks like the very early days of the internet for some people like us this is a necessity sometimes there's nothing that can replace a phone call and if you engage in risky travel plans in nations or locations that aren't super friendly to include the united states a sat phone is going to be a life-saving piece of gear because you can place a phone call to anyone in the world not just an emergency coordination center and one can easily go down the list of scenarios in which this is far preferable to hitting that sos button on a beacon and one of those scenarios is war if you take a look at the terms of service for most satellite communicators on the market you will find that that magic sos button doesn't work if you're in a certain blacklisted country or in a location that the company that you have service through defines as a conflict zone technically the sos button does work and you will be able to use it to talk to whatever emergency recovery center you pay for usually it will be the iercc but in any case you can contact them with the sos button if you are located in say syria or iraq but they are under no contractual obligation to come get you your policy is null and void if you are expecting rescue services in these locations which kind of makes sense seeing that they are purely a civilian peacetime recovery agency and even then they just contract out the actual rescue to local authorities in your area that's not to say that the iercc specifically will leave you out to dry they will do what they can to help but in these unique non-standard situations there might not be much they can do other than calling the local us embassy and handing things off to them better than nothing but the way things are diplomatically these days good luck but with a sat phone you can actually call a physical person without going through the emergency center and without potentially contracting a several thousand dollar rescue bill when all you needed was a tow truck or directions to the nearest urgent care there are also a lot of situations in which a sat phone is more of a lifesaver than a device with an sos beacon when a person hits that sos button help is not instant it takes several hours or even days away from you depending on where you are but a sat phone could be used to make a quick phone call to an entity that can help you much more quickly for instance let's take the lost hiker scenario if a person is hiking in the back country and gets a bit turned around they can hit that sos button and help will be on the way it will take a while and will probably end up costing a lot of money for the rescue but it will work however if that same person had a sat phone they could call the park ranger office and talk to a ranger in seconds to let them know that they're lost and since all sat phones also give you your gps coordinates you could easily tell the park rangers exactly where you are and they can hop in a truck or a gator and come get you this could be very handy for medical issues if you get bit by a venomous snake for instance you might not have time to wait the several hours it's going to take to come get you if you hit the sos button also what if you are not the one in need of emergency services all of us here have at some point come across a stranded hiker or somebody in need of help at some point or another so it would be great to have a phone that can be used to call for help or a tow truck or even to hand off to a stranded hiker so they can call home and let their friends and family know that they are safe also when it comes to the sos button on your own device some companies are really good about not billing you for a rescue if you hit your button on your device in order to rescue someone else but this is kind of a legal gray area and why i absolutely would hit my sos button to save someone else i might come across i would much rather use a sat phone and spend a couple of bucks on a phone call and avoid that potential issue that is often forgotten about when it comes to wilderness rescue who gets to pay the bill so satellite phones have a lot of benefits and like i mentioned they are arguably the best and most reliable communication device that a person can use to talk to anyone on earth at any instant but there are a lot of cons and the main con for buying a satellite phone is the massive cost sat phones are expensive most sat phones are well over a thousand dollars and that price doesn't include this year's shiny new model no most phones on the market right now are designs that are decades old also most sat phones make old-school nokias look like iphones when it comes to the on-screen options and overall layout of the device so it's pretty depressing to buy a brand new sat phones that cost thousands of dollars only to get a giant brick that looks like they made one design back in the 1980s and just stuck with it and on top of that the monthly fees are excruciatingly expensive as well for instance i personally pay about 60 dollars for my monthly satellite phone plan which includes a us phone number for free which is pretty important and for that price i get about 60 minutes of prepaid talk time that's right 60 minutes for the whole month of course i can go over this limit for a rate of about a dollar 25 a minute but considering that most normal cell phone plans are for unlimited data calls and text messages the off-world option of satellite communication costs a lot more by comparison but also by comparison it is impossible to calculate the real value that a satellite phone can have we know how much it costs we know the exact price of these devices and these plans so we can calculate how much it's going to cost but what's really impossible to know is how much a phone call is worth when you really need to make it such as in an emergency too often we try to equate the price or cost of a technology with its value but based on how many lives have been saved with satellite communications it's not really possible to adequately convey the value of such devices in an emergency they are invaluable or even not really in an emergency situation but in situations where several events occur in which the capability of making a phone call in an off-grid location would be really helpful if you frequently find yourself in situations like this or you place great value on this capability then a sat phone would be a great option for you now up next are the devices at the extreme end of the spectrum the plbs or personal locator beacons these devices are most definitely old school in terms of the more modern options that i will discuss in a moment but old school does not necessarily mean that they do not still have a use personal locator beacons are very simple devices and they have only one job to do these are meant to be thrown into a backpack or vehicle and forgotten only taken out when there is a life or death emergency as a result most of these devices have non-user replaceable lithium batteries which is fine for long-term storage but not so great for constantly testing your device before an outing but these devices do not need a subscription you simply sign up and register your device and that's it no monthly service fee or anything other than the original purchase price which when plbs were popular years ago this was quite preferable to the only other alternative at the time the satellite phone also most plbs don't use the same constellation of satellites that other systems use plbs have their own network of satellites called the kospat sarsat system this was an international collaboration between the united states and russia and a few other nations back in the 1980s with the goal of providing an international search and rescue notification system for all kinds of industries and individuals also most plbs emit a radio homing beacon that can be intercepted by search and rescue aircraft to better direction find you once they get close remember this is older technology and back in the day these satellites and devices didn't have the capability for data so all they did was receive the radio signal from your device triangulated it using other satellites and let the emergency center know that your beacon serial number was activated in this general area since these satellites are government owned and operated the initial rescue efforts are also government controlled an important distinction from other options on the market for instance if you activate a plb within the united states the first agency that would be notified that you need help is the us air force who will then hand off your beacon activation to state governmental rescue agencies or coast guard officials if you are offshore this is a big difference between some of the other options out there that we will discuss next so plbs have their place a device that has a constellation of satellites solely dedicated to search and rescue is pretty handy for redundancy but these days we have other devices that offer different and much more capabilities for around the same price technological improvements and new satellite constellations means that today we have a huge category right in the goldilocks zone between sat phones and plbs satellite communicators these devices fulfill the gap and capabilities between having just a life and death emergency button on a plb and having the high cost of a sat phone and for that reason these devices have exploded in popularity so much so that there are now many different devices in this category when compared to their old school competitors currently there are really only two major companies offering these types of devices garmin and spot which both offer totally different devices an array of devices all of which offer different capabilities so much so that each one of these devices deserves its own video but for now we're sticking with the theme of matching capabilities to a technology so at the bottom end of the satellite communicator range are the one-way only communicators these devices are most closely recognized under the spot brand as the spot company got started with offering these types of devices usually quite small the old school original spot device hasn't really changed that much in terms of functionality over the years which is perfectly fine considering its intended use these devices are meant to be a simple cheap solution to satellite communication in that they don't offer that much they of course have the obligatory sos button which all satellite messengers have these days but also a button that you can press to let people back home know where you're at and that everything is going okay a little check in button the latest generations of spot devices also have a very interesting feature of a help button which spot calls the sov or save our vehicle button think of this as a satellite based roadside service and recovery button if you break down beside the road and you don't have cell reception you can push this button to summon help but instead of going to an emergency center which dispatches rescue personnel this goes to a call center that locates you and calls a tow truck for you of course this requires a small monthly fee of at this moment three dollars but it's an important feature that is absent from spot's competitor garmin another feature that isn't talked about a lot when it comes to spot devices is their concealability spot devices are very small and can quite easily be concealed on one's person no matter what a person is wearing so if you are at the beach or a swimming hole where you're wearing nothing but a swimsuit clothing which is notorious for not being able to conceal or carry really anything at all you can still carry a small satellite communicator like the spot gen 4 and no one will ever notice that you have it and speaking of the spot gen 4 specifically is one of the most waterproof devices there is not water resistant waterproof so i actually take mine in the water with me all the time tucked and tethered away unnoticed in a zippered pocket and considering that with tracking turned on you could literally leave this device on 24 7 tracking your position every hour and just replace the extremely common aaa batteries once every couple months sure this is a very specific use and probably not needed for most people but if you find yourself prioritizing compactness and concealability over two-way communication these types of devices offer some great capabilities however the most common satellite communicators on the market right now offer two-way communication the first devices that did this were made by delorme which was quickly bought out by garmin who took that technology and now puts it in at least half a dozen different devices likewise the other main company that does this is spot again who recently came out with their sort of competitor to the garmin's inreach devices the spot x now inreach and spot devices don't exactly replace plbs the result is the same you can get rescued with both but the chain of events that occurs in the emergency process is very different what is unique is that these styles of devices allow two-way communication which is great because it's vastly cheaper than a smartphone but still has the capability of sending messages that are not of an emergency nature and this is great because it's not just a cost saving thing either in the not so hypothetical scenario of getting stuck in a downtown area because you weren't able to get off work early enough to avoid a riot and the cell phone network is either down or under extreme amounts of surveillance and not an option i personally would feel just fine in most cases with pulling out my satellite messenger and sending off a quick message to the family letting them know what's going on that is an excellent use for these kinds of satellite messengers that is not being talked about at all in the backpacking world because the market for these kinds of satellite messengers is again targeting the group of people that based on their beliefs is actually more likely to start a riot rather than try to save someone from a riot i of course don't intend to paint everyone with broad brush but let's be honest the overwhelming majority of backpacking and outdoor companies are absolutely marketing to people who tend to have a particular political ideology so people everyday citizens that have particular needs can absolutely use these technologies in today's crazy world if you were to tell me that i could purchase a device for a quarter of the cost of a modern smartphone that can't be intercepted or even jammed by my local police department which has no less than three stingray devices permanently being used in my location oh and the monthly plan for such a device is about 15 bucks a month i'd say sign me up immediately now granted one would have to be quite naive to think that the national level spying agencies aren't tracking your every message with one of these devices which leads to our next point of note anonymity it's not possible to register a satellite communicator anonymously actually i take that back technically it is none of the satellite providers that i myself have service with to include sat phone providers asked for any identification when signing up even though they probably were supposed to so in theory you could use a fake name and a burner prepaid visa card to sign up for such services but we would strongly advise against this if you only have one device for life-saving purposes remember the sos function on your beacon is tied to an insurance policy an insurance policy which is sure to be cancelled in the event that you have to use that sos function and the people at the company discover that you used a fake name to sign up and sort of on the lines of anonymity we come to another major consideration or questions that must be asked when it comes to satellite communications is whether or not these devices will even actually be allowed to work in a total or near total societal collapse while pushing past the gaping chasm of unknowns regarding such an event one little tidbit of information is of note in the case of such an event and that is the nature of the first strike attacks and denial of services that will occur should a global war or total societal collapse situation happen remember the us military restricted normal gps receivers abilities to actually have the most accurate positioning data for decades fearing that terrorists or more accurately foreign governments would be able to go to walmart and buy a garment off the shelf and put that gps chip in a missile not bad logic on the surface but considering that russia also built a gps satellite constellation and the fact that this wasn't ever really a genuine threat because anyone who was able to build a gps guided missile certainly had enough outside help to get whatever equipment they needed the pentagon quietly did away with this policy a few years ago but we must never forget the nature of that relationship it is only through the grace of the military-industrial gods in the pentagon that we are allowed to actually even use generic gps satellites in the first place so the logic continues that if one can giveth one can certainly taketh away and considering the dod's recent interest in things like gps spoofing and other space-related weaponry and also considering the current federal governments and pretty much every politician's aspirations of totalitarianism becoming a more real threat to average citizens every day it does stand to reason that one of the more important technologies that is going to get locked down for military or government only usage is satellite communications but that would have to be a truly insane world ending situation because shutting down a satellite constellation has much more consequences than banning an individual from the entire internet or even shutting down an entire website for an entire country not every single person with power in this country and certainly not every single agency within the federal government has a handy encrypted satellite radio in their office a lot of official military and diplomatic communications goes over the iridium network through devices that are registered to seemingly normal everyday citizens so even though the fear of the capability for government agencies to shut down satellite communications is a genuine concern the likelihood that this would happen is also at this point extremely remote too much of the heart and lifeblood of our nation relies on satellite communications from all international shipping and oil production to clandestine military operations the federal government is cripplingly reliant on not just the military side of satellite communications but also the recreational consumer side of things which is something that we mere peasants can take advantage of and that's really what satellite communicators and sat phones can be used for in the context of our modern world yes these devices are intended for a specific set of uses and of course are not as capable as most other communication devices like smartphones however considering the options that are currently out there and considering the comparatively cheap costs of these devices and plans when compared to the capabilities that they provide the field of satellite communications is something that in our opinion is a relatively untapped resource for citizens who are beginning to realize that having their entire lives on a smartphone is perhaps not a great idea i personally use my satellite communication devices every single day for most communications of course i would not expect everyone to rush out and do the exact same thing but i also think that sharing my and our collective experiences when it comes to alternative communications has value and with more and more satellite constellations getting put into orbit the future of satellite communications is much much brighter than it was when the technology was first developed again this of course means that as these things get more popular things like mass surveillance and privacy will become more of a concern with everyday satellite communications but for right now we live in that perfect goldilocks zone in which the devices and technology is reliable enough to fit into one's daily communications needs but also not popular enough to warrant your local health department from using it to spy on you so while we're in this sweet spot for however long it lasts satellite communications are a great way to be more prepared a little more private and have capabilities when others around you do not so if this is something you're interested in stay tuned for our future videos on the subject we will definitely be diving deeper into the world of communications as we move forward and if you haven't already done so check out our previous videos on various communications topics which are arranged nicely in playlists on our youtube channel and thank you again to all of our supporters who make content like this possible until next time fight in the shade [Music] you
S2 briefing · 2021-07-29

100% Solutions: Logistical Questions to Ask Yourself

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Intel Update · 2022-04-20

April 20 Intel Update: Food, Energy, and Inflation

hello again everyone and welcome back to a very long overdue intel update from the s2 underground before we begin i just wanted to apologize for the slowdown in video production lately we've had a series of unfortunate events happen in rapid succession preventing me from getting intel updates out firstly and most importantly one of our team members here has been a bit under the weather lately and the entire staff here has been working basically around the clock 24 7 for the past week or so taking care of him and besides that we've also been working on other projects as well which we have really been pouring our hearts and souls into which will not see the light of day for quite some time because of research and development another reason we haven't dropped an until update in a while is because of me i'm really the only one who works on these until update briefs and by now i don't really know what to say but since so many of you depend on these briefs for more than just their intel value i wanted to make a brief telling you that i don't know what to say the world is a crazy place right now and it's only getting crazier by the second and i can't think of many ways of talking about the issues we face without sounding like a broken record we're in that weird situation yet again where there's a lot going on but only so many ways to talk about it and only so many new solutions that we can come up with so today we're going to take a higher more strategic approach and i can at least show you some of where my own concerns lie at least over the immediate future and what i and the rest of the team here are doing moving forward as many of you who have been following us for a while already know there is an unfortunate phenomenon that occurs with pretty much everything we do which has become a sort of inside joke among the team here and that is that the harder we work on something the more unpopular it usually is and at this point it's pretty much a guarantee that the more important we think something is the more underwhelmed the masses of people on youtube will be and that's fine that's probably a good thing to be honest we're obviously not here for the masses we have always intentionally targeted a very small minority with our content anyway so with that out of the way let's get going with the classic quantity over quality shorter length brief and i'll put my personal gripes aside for another day and let's begin with logistics like i mentioned i'm going to try to keep this at a more strategic level mostly because i have no idea where shortages are located at this point let's face it our ability to track shortages was never really that good or accurate anyway but right now if it takes me two hours to verify with an 80 percent confidence level that a single tweet is true that's not really a valuable use of my or anybody else's time instead i'm going to focus on three main areas of concern that could get pretty spicy over the summer and those three areas are food energy and economics let's talk food first ukraine being the bread basket of europe leads to a few more immediate problems like a shortage of grain now again we must take everything with a grain of well grain i guess because for everything that i'm about to say one could easily say it's not that simple this applies to everything we brief but especially the grain situation in europe so keep that in mind is that this may be a simple explanation but it's a lot more complex than that right now the ukrainian war is going to have somewhat of an unknown impact on the growing season some people in the agricultural community say it's not going to have any impact at all uh some people are saying that it's going to be a lot more significant than we think whatever the case is ukraine provides roughly 11 to 15 percent of the world's grain and both russia and ukraine together provide around 30 percent of the world's wheat specifically and of that ukraine provides about eight percent now take those numbers carefully again because i have never found a statistic as hard to verify as that one is like honestly that's one thing that you'd think would be easily verifiable but the freaking media is at it again and i can't even find out with any reliability how much grain ukraine exports annually mainstream media sources and even scholarly journal articles are openly lying about how much grain ukraine and russia export because the mainstream media wants to push a narrative they want to push war and the idea that the ukrainian war the war that the media supports is causing food shortages in europe goes against their narrative it sort of removes a lot of the justification the media have pushed forward justifying the war in ukraine but anyway you've got to operate with some data right and since i can literally make up whatever statistics i want let's not use any number at all and break this down barney's style ukraine exports wheat russia exports wheat both countries together export a lot of wheat and that wheat goes to the rest of europe russia has been exporting 0 of their wheat for months they stopped all exports of wheat months ago in preparation for this invasion 100 of ukraine's ports are currently blockaded by the russian navy 98 of ukraine's grain is exported via these ports so using this data we can safely say that the largest exporter of grain russia and the fifth largest exporter of grain ukraine in the world have effectively stopped exporting grain that has to have some kind of impact and i can't imagine it's a positive one at least for europe and on top of this the planting season for grain is in the springtime right after the spring thaw can anyone think of anything that might be going on in ukraine that might impact agricultural pursuits exactly obviously not all agricultural operations will be impacted by the war but i can't imagine a war being great for sowing seeds the good news is that the spring planting season is largely negligible in ukraine roughly 95 percent of ukraine's wheat is winter wheat and that was already in the ground when the invasion happened so i don't really know what the impacts of that could be other than maybe getting it out of the fields when it comes to harvest time right honestly a bigger agricultural concern for ukraine at the moment is their barley and corn crop that could be a big problem if they have trouble getting seeds in the ground this spring or even later this year but we see how things start to snowball you've got a shortage now due to little exports and you'll have a shortage later in the year because of lack of planting or whatever those impacts will be again there's no way we could possibly know right we can't predict how the war will affect the planting cycle but it has to affect it some this will be made worse by fertilizer shortages which we have been seeing for a long time for us here in the u.s any kind of shortage of grain in ukraine will be negligible really we don't really have to worry about shortages of grain so much after all the us is a massive producer of wheat and corn as well this invasion especially the political actions is going to impact the global wheat supply for years again what those impacts will be i don't know but over the past two years the supply chain for every single thing on earth has been thrown out of whack so it would be wise to prepare for global food instability another major concern is energy and those concerns differ based on what continent you're on for us here in the u.s that means what we call pol or petroleum oil and lubricants expect anything fossil fuel related to either present vulnerabilities or be impacted by political and economic events over the summer so what does that mean in plain english well expect gas prices to stay pretty high for the time being right now the feds are trying to keep prices low by tapping into what little remains of our strategic reserves but our national petroleum stockpile was already at its lowest recorded level months ago so that's not going to be a safety net for too long our strategic oil reserves are just that strategic oil reserves i don't think that the regime will tap the reserves completely but that is a finite resource all those old salt mines down on the down on the gulf coast where our strategic oil reserves are located they're not an infinite source right and with opec looking to start accepting yuan in addition to dollars to pay for oil exports this could be a pretty big problem further down the line we will talk more about the economics of that in just a minute for our viewers in europe the energy concerns are much more pressing than high gas prices most european nations are extremely dependent on russian natural gas and some countries are cashing the checks that they wrote years ago such as germany being strategically dependent on solar wind and geothermal energy sources for critical infrastructure when your adversaries are still on petroleum well we're finding out just how bad of an idea that was germany is the poster child for this german politicians have constantly without fail made the worst possible decisions when it comes to energy production especially in the industrial sector just look at germany's decisions regarding nuclear power they are phasing out all of their reactors even when they know that they have nothing to replace them with that is as reliable and so throughout europe national level energy problems are cast down onto the people to deal with all around the world but particularly in europe we are seeing governments create problems in the citizenry trying to solve those problems and none of those problems has been so universal as energy citizens around the planet are buying up as many generators and fuel cans as they can afford same with consumer grade solar panels and don't even get me started on what lithium prices look like right now due to people and companies buying it up for building batteries throughout europe i don't know if there has ever been a time that energy was as unstable as it is right now so what does all of this mean well there are two conclusions for one if you want to have electricity when blackouts occur you need to create your own off-grid electrical generation methods whatever that is it's not as simple as buying a two thousand dollar solar generator and some solar panels that you fling out in the driveway when those power goes out in your neighborhood what are you going to do when blackouts or power surges or rolling brownouts become standard operating procedure in your area going on to a solar system temporarily is fine to run like some minor appliances charger devices things like that during a temporary emergency but when the brownouts become routine a more long-term solar setup would be something worth looking into secondly the same attitude applies with fossil fuels especially here in the u.s politicians will continue to throttle petroleum fuel sources because that is the one thing that people cannot reproduce in their backyard and transportation equals freedom we've talked quite a bit about why our politicians are trying really hard to restrict our freedom of movement here in the u.s but at this point it's extremely clear that the current political regime in the u.s is intentionally using energy as a weapon to control the people and if you don't agree with that fine i don't care the long story short is that the average american needs to be able to have transportation when the government is fighting with everything they've got to stop you from traveling what i think about the current political regime doesn't matter what you think doesn't matter either what's going to happen is going to happen and i would fully expect gasoline to be used as a weapon for the foreseeable future bottom line is that we citizens and the consumer market need to be figuring out alternative transportation right now if it's building or buying your own tiny electric car so that you'll at least be able to charge it up with the panels in your backyard that might be one solution buying a motorcycle or dirt bike which uses much less gas might be an option and there are a lot of electric dirt bikes out there that are the new hotness these days even an e-bike might be an option for some you don't have to stop showering start wearing sandals and use a magic crystal for deodorant just because you invest in some kind of electric transportation i myself think that electric vehicles are a fashion statement or a status symbol for most people and will not be replacing serious vehicles anytime soon however based on the energy instability that we have already seen including domestic attacks on our critical infrastructure i really think it's a good idea to at least have some kind of vehicular backup that can take over some tasks when the petroleum gets hit with a cyber attack or regulations or both and finally a massive concern far more troubling than either food or energy but also something that is completely out of the hands of citizens is economics specifically inflation a lot of people far smarter than us have been talking a lot about inflation for the past year or two and recently those concerns have become more urgent in the field of economics never have there been so many questions asked that no one has a clue how to answer are we heading toward a hyperinflation event what do we do to prepare for it what would a hyperinflation event look like considering that most currencies on the planet are pinned to the us dollar what happens when the world's fiat currency fails and can that even happen at all i'm not even going to pretend to have the answer to any of these questions and even economists that have spent their lives studying this can't really give us that much more advice we can read history and that gives us a pretty big advantage in every other problem we face but it's not as helpful as you'd imagine when trying to figure out how to beat inflation from the weimar republic to venezuela the circumstances for those hyperinflation events are just different enough from our own situation to not be particularly helpful now we will at some point throw together an in-depth study on inflation its causes and what you can do about it but spoiler alert there's not much that you can do about it it would be easier to repeal every single firearm law or regulation than it would be to stop the federal reserve from printing money so to me there are really only a few options that seem viable and none of them are particularly great the options are basically to jump ship converting a fiat currency into precious metals or a different currency that would retain value after a hyperinflation event in one currency though again seeing as the us dollar is the world's fiat currency pretty much if the us dollar fails it will bring down most other currencies on the planet with it at least in theory really the only things that we can do right now is buy as many goods as we possibly can right now so that when the inflation hikes those prices a year from now you will have supplies right spending a dollar on a can of beans now and storing it for a couple of years when the price of a can of beans is five dollars is a good choice at this point i myself am not prepping and stockpiling supplies because of shortages necessarily it's really just to save money in the long run when inflation gets out of control and let me just give you a personal example i have noticed as have most people noticed that my usual like non-prepping grocery bill per week or every two weeks or so has roughly doubled and you might ask yourself well why has it doubled and not just gone up based on the price of inflation so you'd think that your grocery bill would go up directly in correlation with inflation well here's the thing it's not because different companies are increasing their prices based on a few different things they're usually front loading that cost like for instance the other day i think aldi announced that they were going to increase their prices by like on some items by like 50 percent and you're saying whoa what what the hey why 50 like inflation is not at 50 if inflation gets to 50 percent we're in a hyper inflation event and it probably won't matter too much anyway um but so why are they increasing their prices that much well it's because they're front loading that cost they would rather bite the bullet now and take off a lot of their customers right now and make that profit so that when inflation gets a lot higher than that or inflation has already gotten higher and they've been taking losses this entire time well increasing their prices will is a way to correct that a lot of companies what they are doing is either front loading that inflationary cost and assuming that inflation is going to get higher or they have put off price increases for so long that they're now either taking a loss or they're basically making no net gain for some products and of course this varies product product and of course we're only talking about actual price increases we're not talking about things like shrink flation or stuff like that the reason being is a lot of companies what they have decided to do like apparently aldi is say all right customers we're going to have an inflationary price increase and there you go it's going to be you know in a couple of days at midnight all of our goods at this at this in this category are going to go up by this this amount of percentage and in actuality really the thing to do is for companies to adjust their prices based on inflation uh as soon as the inflation report comes out say all right we're going to increase our our prices of our goods by that amount but here's the thing there's a huge disconnect because inflation is a daily changing thing and usually by the time we have found out that inflation has gone up by x percent it's already too late we've already lost that value of our us dollar right so a lot of companies end up trying to front load this they're going to increase their prices by 20 by 30 to make sure that they only have to do one price increase this quarter and they can take those profits that they make like inflation is only at eight percent will they increase their prices by 20 percent they're going to take that uh difference in percentage and use that to front load um the the cost for when inflation does start creeping up if that makes sense that's probably a confusing way to think about it but a lot of companies are front loading this inflation issue they are increasing their prices by more than what the inflation is so that they can recoup those costs or predict where inflation will go so when you have that happen in every grocery store in the country with every product in a grocery store yeah your grocery bill goes up by way more than just inflation and i don't think people realize that sure people know hey man i bought the same amount of food as last as i did last week my bill is now twenty dollars more or thirty dollars more fifty dollars more people notice that but they don't they don't necessarily notice that it's a lot more than the inflationary percentage because a lot of people just they just they have a general idea of what they're spending on food granted a lot of people nowadays don't necessarily get their most of their nutrition from a grocery store most people eat out a lot so that's even harder to calculate prices because you're paying for the preparation and not just the raw ingredients but in any case hopefully that kind of explains why inflation is much more of a problem than you might think and it's costing you more than inflation you're pro you're not paying just inflationary prices you're paying for the prices of you're paying the price on things for where companies think inflation is going to go and that's results in a lot higher increase across the board again i want to talk more about inflation and specifically how individuals can make it through it and really if individuals in today's world can even make it through a hyperinflation event i really want to get down and talk a lot more about these details but i need to do a lot more research i need to do a lot more reading and i need to learn a lot more before i can formulate a decent opinion on what to do so give me some time to think about it i'll let the team here chew on it a little bit with me and we'll figure out something we'll see what we can do i know that right now i know right now the solutions for an inflation to to make it through inflation are not particularly either feasible or really great solutions so plus we're in uncharted territory when it comes to what the us dollar means to the world these days so stay tuned for that and we'll come back to the inflation issue in a separate video i guess the biggest concern of all is a combination of what second and third order effects will happen due to the food situation becoming more serious the energy sector being weaponized even more and inflation becoming a very serious threat as we all know by now events tend to snowball at the worst possible times so chances are these three concerns will rear their ugly heads in unison and all cascade to cause complications all at once that i really don't know what to do about there is no real way to be reliably proactive in determining what problems will pop up so i guess all we can do is be reactionary and mitigate our damages for whenever something does happen so there you go the three biggest concerns that i am most concerned about well at least in conjunction with censorship domestic spying and the other long-standing issues but food energy and inflation are really the the big three things i'm watching carefully and would expect to become big problems over the next few months so with that mountain of text out of the way and with this strategic stage set let's move to critical infrastructure first up is an issue that probably most people have not heard about at all and i wanted to talk about it today because it's sort of in the local military news um and that is the red hill bulk storage fuel facility scandal this has been a massive problem for i think about a decade or so this is probably the worst groundwater contamination event that no one knows about so here's the short version of what's been going on during world war ii the government was concerned about above ground fuel storage being a massive strategic target again hawaii small island chain needs a lot of fuel because it's it was headquarters for the pacific fleet you needed a lot of fuel tanks and having a lot of fuel tanks above ground is not a super great thing if you're getting bombed in a war and with world war ii kicking off the united states was certainly looking at hawaii being a vulnerability so they began construction of a series of massive underground fuel storage tanks under a volcano which became known as the red hill site these concerns were confirmed when the japanese attacked pearl harbor during the construction of the red hill storage facility so the fuel storage facility was justified financially by the feds and the navy continued building out the complex eventually consisting of 20 underground tanks each capable of storing roughly 12.5 million gallons of fuel well it turns out these suckers were actually built directly over an aquifer and have been leaking fuel into the groundwater for decades and the navy in classic fashion has been covering it up within the navy it has been pretty common knowledge that the tap water throughout pearl smelled and tasted like fuel but the navy ignored the problem and concealed several fuel leaks that occurred as far back as the 1990s until the civilian populace started getting affected and then the story blew open as it stands right now the hawaii state epa and the federal epa have rejected several of the navy's plans to fix the problems because the plans are not good enough the navy has been fumbling this problem for many many years now even after they got caught lying the navy doubled down and said that as recently as last november that the water was quote safe to drink but third-party testing immediately confirmed unsafe amounts of fuel in the water currently the us navy is not in compliance with the environmental orders that have been mandated by the feds or the state of hawaii a few months ago the dod kind of gave up on salvaging the site and mandated the complete defueling and shutdown of the site but since the site is so large it takes a long time to shut it down the reason that we're talking about this now is that there was yet another fuel spill a couple of weeks ago this time it wasn't much at all it was only about 30 gallons of fuel and water mixture so pretty much negligible compared to the tens of thousands of gallons of fuel that has been spilled over the past few decades the interesting part about this latest leak is really the reaction to it just read any navy times or military times article and you will immediately realize how those publications are mostly just propaganda tools now in any case i just wanted to mention this event because it highlights not just the contamination accidents that can occur but the decades of cover-ups that often go along with such events moving on down to the saudis recently opec has floated the idea of allowing china to pay for oil in yuan this means a lot of things and i could probably talk about this for quite a bit of time but the bottom line is that when the saudis even remotely consider another currency than the us dollar this signals their lack of faith in the us dollar of course it's not like the saudis are expecting the us dollar to fail as the world's fiat currency but it does signal that they are concerned and the saudis are like the russians they never take a dump without a plan so when the saudis start making moves with regards to the logistics of how to potentially continue their market for fuel in the event the us dollar has some problems well that should be concerning up next is not something that affects the united states so much at the moment but it is an infrastructure concern so i thought i'd mention it and that is the russian jamming of gps signals really this is a problem for a lot of europe mostly the countries that border ukraine but it is kind of spilling over into other areas in particular the french have taken note of this their regulatory agency dgac recently announced that russian gps jamming that is occurring in the ukrainian war theater is spilling over into europe and affecting commercial aviation finland has been reporting detecting gps jamming and spoofing for weeks now but the problem of commercial aviation being affected seems to be spreading um due to how radio waves propagate it makes sense that aircraft would be affected the most after all they're way up in the sky and have line of sight for hundreds of miles making them very vulnerable to gps jamming or even spoofing i guess in other words the russians on the ground might think they are jamming the gps signals of ground targets within a small area maybe a few miles but aircraft hundreds of miles away can and apparently are being affected by this again we're going to be talking a lot more about gps jamming and spoofing in the future because this is the future of warfare sadly and the ukrainian war has illustrated the importance of figuring out alternative alternative ways of navigation without gps you can see this in the us government in the military's bids and attempts to find non-gps related navigational tools or things for navigation in gps denied environments there's a lot of cool technology stuff out there really fascinating things that you can do but for the most part for us on the consumer level the lesson is learn how to use a map in compass because you can't go wrong with that right so moving on to number four there uh the biden regime changing the or rather increasing the ethanol levels in fuel the classic watering down the whiskey approach so when it comes to the biden regime increasing the ethanol levels or approving the increase of ethanol levels in fuel in an attempt to bring down gas prices a lot of people have come to a lot of conclusions or basically just had some wait a minute moments and one of those classic wait a minute moments is when the vitamin regime in one breath says that we're going to have food shortages here in the u.s oh and but by the way that corn that we're going to uh be short on we're going to use most of it to make gas or make ethanol for gasoline so a lot of people have have brought that up and i briefly kind of wanted to address that by saying that it's more complicated than that uh for one most agriculture in the united states is contract based so at the most the only thing that i can see this ethanol increase affecting food prices would be if farmers were to write new contracts for the production of ethanol grade corn so that and it's an opportunity cost basically farmers switching to ethanol corn rather than sweet corn which is what you eat they're two different products right so you're not going to have a direct correlation there the most correlation you might have is like i mentioned farmers deciding to switch to ethanol fuel production is that going to happen i highly doubt it because i cannot i have to do the math and kind of figure this out but i highly doubt that farmers are going to immediately start switching their crops and writing new contracts for you know thousands of acres of corn corn fields simply because biden temporarily increases the ethanol in fuel farmers are a lot smarter than that they realize that this is just a stop gap and then their fields are tied up for a long time based based on based on a temporary issue and the market price of corn could switch so i don't know that there will be a whole lot of farmers saying oh look biden just made it made ethanol lucrative let's go switch to ethanol and let's not grow food i don't know if that's going to happen or not but you can certainly make the argument and somebody who makes that argument i i wouldn't say you're wrong i'm just saying that i don't know we have clearly seen the biden regime attempt to get farmers to not grow food right remember there was reports from months ago we were talking about how the biden regime quietly increased a program or reauthorize a program or increase the amount of money you get for letting your fields return to nature right this whole environmental bs stuff that's done in the guys of a lot of political uh maneuvers so again i don't know if this is going to be a huge impact but it's i it's probably going to affect it some i just don't know i would think that a lot of corn farmers out there are probably going to stick with growing human corn because again shortages are probably going to occur in other kinds of staple goods and corn is a good way to fill those gaps i don't know though so i i guess we'll have to see but when it comes to fuel it's a little a little bit more clear just slightly when it comes to fuel prices this will probably have a pretty negligible impact for one the production of ethanol requires a lot of energy anyway and since the fuel is basically watered down even more than it already is you have suffering fuel efficiency so you basically have fuel gasoline that is actually more expensive per mile because it's more inefficient so you might run into the problem of gasoline costing 20 percent less yeah sure thanks biden the cost of gasoline is down 20 percent but it's 25 more inefficient if that makes sense now again i don't know what the math looks like on this uh adding more ethanol to fuel is probably not a net loss i don't know if this is going to be a net loss but it's got to be close like it's going to be like well gee thanks like you know fuel is 20 less but now i can go 25 you know shorter distances like did that really help me at all no i'm actually losing out oh and now you know now my engine is is all kinds of jacked up because of the increased ethanol so i don't know but i would think that when you factor in the energy needs to make ethanol in the first place it comes out to be not really a good idea either way i think the only result that's going to come of this is more inefficient gasoline people having to refuel a lot more often and potentially serious engine problems mark my words i guarantee you that there will be a headline in a few months from some mainstream media outlet to the effect of ethanol enriched gasoline causing problems for certain kinds of internal combustion engines and that the regime is going to come back they're going to be happy to explain this away with their classic tagline what are they going to say say it with me just buy an electric car right it's almost like a concert at this moment because you know exactly what uh what notes coming next so meanwhile the regime quietly renews oil permits for federal lands just because they know how much they're messing up i just thought it was kind of interesting that were that the solution for for fuel uh problems is to increase ethanol in in fuel and not i don't know maybe increase domestic production or renew some oil leases would be nice oh well they're quietly doing that too because they realized how much they messed up so very interesting stuff i don't really know if there's much more to add on that so let's move to significant governmental actions i'm going to move through this one pretty quick because a lot of this is either conjecture unverified or i really honestly don't know what to think about it just yet but i thought it's interesting so i thought i'd mention a lot of this stuff first up is the secret service spy network that's what i'm calling it because that's sure as hell what it seems like to me not really much is known about this at the moment but it appears it seems like two guys were able to pose as dhs agents and they were able to befriend bribe and kind of weasel their way into the personal lives of a lot of secret service agents including uh secret service agents who are on um either the vice president's protection detail or jill biden's uh presidential secret service detail depending on what news source you read it's really hard to figure out what's going on here either way there's some shady stuff going on and me being me with the experience i have i looked at this um i saw that somebody sent me this story and i thought ah okay probably some spy network or something um really that's usually what it is people trying to infiltrate now it's pretty bold um to go around you know impersonating federal agents it's a lot easier to either bribe or blackmail existing agents so i'm not really sure what's going on here these days in the world this isn't like you know an episode of the americans right it's not necessarily all about nation state espionage corporate espionage is huge and geez you might have private companies out there in other countries trying to infiltrate government assets over here in the us and vice versa for monetary reasons right it might not necessarily be uh some kind of nation-state level spying who knows though i think it's kind of interesting so i thought i'd mention it um up next is the whitmer the whitmer kidnapping plot and entrapment case you can read more about this if you haven't already but basically what we have been talking about with the michigan governor kidnapping scandal um was basically confirmed by uh the verdicts in that this case was basically a case of the fbi getting a lot of goobers together and trying to get them to kidnap the uh the governor of michigan classic entrapment case at least is what the court is indicating by their um judgments on this um so yeah uh again the fbi is more concerned with trying to get some you know idiots together to kidnap a governor than trying to uh protect us against any kind of terrorism so pretty standard operating procedure at this point just wanted to throw anybody just throw it out there for anybody who wants to read more about it that we have you know the final verdicts now and basically the case is closed at this point up next is the poison pill the infamous laptop right hunter biden's laptop um basically being confirmed to be real so it's something that is a huge rabbit hole if you want to go down i think it's interesting but i have not had the time to go through the hundreds of documents that have come out regarding the laptop and documents supposedly found on it the latest news is that one of the it guys that actually worked on the laptop was able to recover 450 gigabytes of deleted data and he has reportedly fled to switzerland fearing that he's going to be assassinated one i do want to mention though that i don't know if this is how accurate this is but one of the original it guys made a statement on it stating that the laptop only had a hard drive that was capable of 256 gigabytes so um he didn't want to rule out that the information on that that 450 gigabytes was was not genuine um he just wanted to stress that that could have come from cloud data or something like that but the original hard drive was only 256 gigabytes so there are a lot of copies out there of the hard drive allegedly floating around on the internet again we'll probably come back to this if something interesting comes out about it um and as time goes on i'll kind of be interested in seeing what's on that um laptop as would pretty much everyone but again the evidence is is pretty damning so far um with regards to emails um that have come out regarding the laptop so keep an eye on that and we'll uh we'll come back to that when we've got more information on it but number four is probably the one we've gotten the most questions about over the past couple weeks and that is um the atf shenanigans yet again i hate to burst everybody's bubble on this one but i'm really not going to get into the weeds with this too much other people far more well-versed people in the 2a community and in the gun community i have talked a lot about what these this new series of tyranny from the atf means what biden's actions mean and all that and what's in the text i don't know what it means i'm i know i should care i know i really should care a lot about this but i'm really struggling uh to to be personally motivated to care really about what the atf has done lately it's like every month they come out and they do something that yet that most gun owners are not gonna follow anyway so i don't know um i think that it's a smart idea to to figure out uh what is going on and what kind of angles are going after but again like i told you months ago they're gonna come after 80 kits like that's just a fact like when we saw that we got this hint when they raided all those companies that were selling um the 80 frames with the jigs and uh like parts kits and the slide and everything like that slides and barrels and parts kits and things like that uh when they raided those companies we saw the writing on the wall like anybody who did not see the next step was just outright ban 80 kits like what did you think was next so i don't know it's um it's important to keep track of the tyranny and what routes are going to go down but they're trying to outlaw as much as they possibly can and i personally saw 80 kits as being a huge target by the atf and the federal government so it makes sense that they would go after those at this time or eventually how effective is this going to be i don't know probably not very effective though probably about as effective as every other thing the federal government has tried to do with regards to gun control which is pretty much nothing um you know it's just i think this is probably my my personal apathy on this is probably just a reflection of where i think the rule of law is in this country at this time which is i think pretty pretty low i think that more americans than ever before don't really give a crap about federal gun laws anymore since there are inevitably federal agents watching this video there's really not a whole lot more to add on it other than what i think is going to happen i think that most people are going to do what they've been doing over the past year look at the data they're just going to not give a crap about what the atf is doing now what does that mean for consumer sales yeah people are going to snatch up every polymer 80 kit that there is they're going to snatch up every 80 receiver every jig kit it's going to be gone because market demand is how that works but as far as what this means i don't know i really don't know i don't think that most people will care um but as but when it comes to what the atf is going to do i have no idea so let me stop rambling on about 80 percent kids and let's end with ukraine and unfortunately i'm not going to talk about ukraine today and there's a few reasons for that for one i want to talk about ukraine in a more educational sense i want there are so many things i want to do when it comes to ukraine and i've got volumes already of personal notes the whole team here has volumes of personal notes on everything from the tactical lessons learned from ukraine to different ways of um changing our current military doctrine to what civilians can do we've got all of that we're learning an incredible amount of information from ukraine um and we're learning just how horrifyingly bad warfare actually is um but here's the problem censorship and this is something that we have been putting off talking about for a while just because it's it's not really relevant for most people i guess but here's the deal we got this email in our inbox a while back so did most people on youtube who have made youtube videos about ukraine and youtube is basically is not basically they are directly censoring us um this is we're not talking shadow banning or anything that's impossible to prove in a court of law no youtube has given us a direct order to not say certain things and that's my line that's that's my hard no not going to do that so here's what we're going to do if we do another ukraine brief if we talk about ukraine anymore we are not going to do so on youtube any ukraine videos that we put out we will uh put on other platforms we'll put it on patreon uh we have a utreon account now which is an alternative to patreon because patreon is not so great with censorship and utreon is is kind of the new hotness with regards to that so we're going to put our ukraine videos on there in addition to odyssey as well now what does that mean it means that most of you probably won't see the videos it means that the the algorithms that youtube does to put our ukraine videos in front of new viewers will not happen now i personally i personally would like to take all of our content and put it on odyssey or butreon or something like that i would love to do that but that's just not possible it's not feasible just take any just just as a personal experiment take any of our videos any pick any of them you want take that video and look at the number of views it got on youtube and then go look over on odyssey and see how many views it got and you'll see that it's a night and day difference even though in the description of every single video we put out the odyssey link where you can watch the video you know ad free in any case we're not in the business of farming for views here but we also want to grow we want to expand our horizons and we want to expand other people's horizons and and by putting all of our content on a smaller platform people are not going to see it and that's a problem because we want we have so many different things that we want to do and so we kind of have to do what most people do on youtube and that's play by youtube's dumb rules um and but but here's the thing though there is a line with that and youtube wants to shadow ban us fine don't care nothing i can do about it if i had a team of attorneys there's no way that i could fight that in court because you can't because their processes are closed and proprietary but here's the thing again like i mentioned youtube sent us a direct order as to what we can and cannot say and that is a no-go in my book so again like i mentioned if we end up talking ukraine again in the intel update uh format um we're not gonna put it on youtube um i'm not playing anymore with regards to that what we might end up doing is splitting a brief whereas you have part one of a brief on youtube which is plays by youtube censorship rules right and so that people know that it exists and in the video i will point you to part two which is the stuff that youtube will not allow us to say um hopefully we can make this work um again we've been super busy the past couple of weeks and we just got this notification a few days ago so we it's been hard for the team here to kind of figure out what we're going to do about it because again we are funded here by you we're funded either by your direct support on patreon or utreon and by uh ad revenue from youtube well we're not going to be putting a huge chunk of our um funding on youtube anymore so we're going to be taking a significant financial loss by moving our ukraine videos off platform um but that's what's got to happen with ukraine and um yeah so youtube wants to kind of censor us in any other way well you know we can grumble about it but no there's you're not going to give me a direct order as to what i'm going to say and not say especially considering the nature of war and [Music] it being pretty horrible all the way around i know a lot of you out there were probably very disappointed that we're sticking around on youtube at all after this but hey look that's just not the way the world works i would love nothing more again than to put our content on some kind of other free speech platform but let me tell you something i'll just find a way to censor that one too and at the same time what's more important getting our ideas out to a group of 12 people or you know 12 million right so i would rather play the game to some degree like we have in the past and be able to do some good in that regard and reach more people and do more good rather than just sitting on some random.com page and not um i don't want to become an ideological sounding chamber and i think youtube keeps us honest in that regard because our content goes to so many different kinds of people that ordinarily would not have sought it out so the algorithms in that regard are good they allow us to get fresh minds and fresh eyes on a lot of things that we wouldn't ordinarily get if you were to just post our videos you know on some page like odyssey right so again it's always been a fine line um ever since we got started on youtube it's been a fine line of us dancing between how much do we want to self censor and is this even right that we have to self-censor what's what's what's the better option here what's what's the more honorable thing to do well i can tell you with regards to this i'm telling you our hard line is this youtube is not going to tell us what we can and cannot do on a topic um so again like i mentioned when we come back around to ukraine it's not going to be on youtube um so just giving it everybody warning on that um but yeah i think of i think i've talked that one to death so let's go ahead and close thank you again everyone for all of your support over the past well since we've been in existence really there are a lot of good people out there that have helped us a lot along the way and in ways that again like i mentioned you can't possibly know so for that we will never forget the support that you guys have given us and we really really really appreciate it there is no way that we would have been able to continue this without your support i i personally would have rolled up the s2 underground project shut it down and never produced another thing last year had it not been for your support because it wasn't a viable option for helping people but it is now and we are planning to expand quite significantly over the next few months we're going to be doing a lot of different kinds of things believe it or not we don't just make videos on youtube we do other things as well and we're going to start releasing some of the projects we've been working over the next few months hopefully if we can get some some of the kinks worked out in our system so again uh stay tuned i know i keep saying that but good things are coming we've got a lot of things that i think will be very helpful very handy to have and [Music] that's going to be a huge priority for us moving forward so we're going to continue the update briefs we're going to continue as much as we can we're going to fight censorship on youtube as best we can and if there's a way that we cannot avoid censorship on youtube well we're going to take that content off platform and just kind of deal with the financial loss i guess in some way but in any case we're going to continue moving forward as best we can and we would encourage you to do so as well times are tough right now and they're only going to get tougher i know i say this a lot but it's the truth and we really need people out there that are willing to help each other maybe not help us i mean who are we we're just a small group of people right that are trying to do the best we can mostly failing i guess but in any case if you can just help somebody else try to do that that that's a good way to move forward um better yourself help others where you can and we'll make it through this we'll we'll do all right i personally take great solace in knowing that we don't live through easy times we're living through some pretty challenging stuff and uh the challenges that we're being faced with today are kind of like a they're kind of like t-ball for the game ahead right so we're getting we're getting our practice
Intel Update · 2022-11-19

19 Nov Intel Update: Pipelines and Petroleum

hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground man it has been a long time since I've put out a brief so hopefully we'll be able to get through some of the issues that have been kind of a top priority for us here over the past few weeks just a small administrative note I'm actually still working on the format for this brief it's going to change quite a bit I think as we move forward and try to figure out some of the more interesting things to talk about so for now really the only thing that I'm going to talk about in the domestic United States is petroleum oil and lubricant production we'll jump back to the more kinetic incidents and some of the more interesting critical infrastructure stuff but like I said I've got a lot of catching up to do and a lot of data to sift through so we'll have to revisit that at a later date but for now I have primarily been focusing on Pol or petroleum oil and lubricant refineries based on how often very large facilities have exploded or caught fire lately I thought it prudent to start cataloging the major incidents that we have seen this year so far this year the most serious incidents that we have seen have been the fire at the BP husky Toledo Refinery which ended up killing two people and the incidents surrounding the marathon refinery in garyville starting with the BP husky Toledo incident both BP and federal investigators have been pretty tight-lipped regarding the incident that claimed the lives of two Refinery workers this is completely expected following such a serious event that results in the death or Serious injury of workers the long-term effects of this plant being offline are unknown but as it stands one of the largest refineries in the Great Lakes region is offline and from what I can tell the entire Refinery is offline and unfortunately it's pretty likely to stay offline for a significant amount of time because BP just announced significant layoffs at this facility following the fire moving to the marathon refinery in garyville unknown parts of the facility are still offline following a fire and possible explosion which resulted in unknown damage back on October 7th that's pretty much all I've got a big fat nothing do don't know any more than something happened don't know what don't know how bad it is and don't know when the facility is going to be back online this incident is interesting because as some of you may remember this is the second incident involving the garyville refinery this year back in February this facility suffered an explosion in one of the towers that are used to process distillates for gasoline Diesel and jet fuel though like anything surrounding the Pol refineries the details on these incidents are sketchy at best so we never really get precise details following any incident either way it's not a good thing when things keep exploding at the third largest refinery in the United States moving back in time a bit we remember that this hasn't been a good year for Valero who has witnessed several large Fires at their refineries around the country this year back in April we saw a very large fire at their complex in Monroe Louisiana which injured eight workers and more recently a large fire broke out at their Corpus Christi facility on November 3rd wrapping up the recent events that surrounding our Pol refining capabilities many refineries are offline on the west coast for both planned and unplanned maintenance such as two Phillips 66 refineries in Washington state and in California so some of you might be asking so what well the bottom line is that even though we're dealing with a lot of unknowns it can't be good for this much refining capability to be offline at once again we are missing crucial data we know the total production capacity of every single Pol refinery in the U.S but when you start factoring in partial shutdowns or planned maintenance with unknown timetables we can't really get a good beat on what the bottom line is it's not like the colonial pipeline incident when basically the entire network was dead in the water for six days or so most of the specific data that we need to understand what impacts these shutdowns will have is either proprietary data that you have to pay thousands of dollars for or again concealed for national security reasons wouldn't be a super good idea to point out exactly what the vulnerabilities of our refineries are however we can generally say that again this many refineries being offline down for maintenance damaged in some way or still recovering from damage that occurred years ago is not good for our national energy security Now the next question becomes why why are so many refineries burning or exploding lately is this out of the norm or is this something that we're just noticing more well we can get into the specifics of the reported incidents at a later time because there are complex problems with the ways that these major events are reported but generally speaking I think that these major incidents are the result of a few factors which are overstretched Crews inexperienced workers increased demand resulting in maintenance issues poor maintenance in general and of course the more deliberate actions that while probably rare we will never know about but nonetheless must factor in as well after all we cannot completely dismiss the in insane rhetoric that we're seeing from world leaders specifically regarding energy whatever the reason for these fires or explosions we will never get enough info to make a call either way what all of this really means is that we are really counting on all of the workers at these types of facilities to be vigilant and be careful the average citizen can't do a John Brown thing about a Refinery fire all we can do is Observe and plan accordingly if a Refinery fire breaks out that is going to immediately impact prices or availability as was the case with the fire at the Whiting Indiana facility back in August so if you work at a pol Refinery or really any large industrial facility please be careful and remain Vigilant you are on the front lines and the first and sometimes only barrier preventing a lot of really bad things from happening anybody who's worked in Industry knows that oftentimes safety takes a back seat especially if your supervisor says do this or you're fire third but the game has changed now and a large industrial accident that could have been prevented is not just going to hurt a company's bottom line it's going to directly impact the lives of everyday citizens likewise pay attention to your company's security practices if you see someone you don't recognize in a place where they are not supposed to be say something take a few minutes to check out your work center and make sure that everything is where it's supposed to be and that the right stuff is tagged out and that there isn't anything extra hanging out in the workplace you all know what to do I certainly don't need to lecture anyone I just think that at this point the only thing that we can do is remain Vigilant report safety or maintenance violations when you can and keep an eye out for anything shady moving on to significant governmental actions uh the Biden regime announced this week that they will continue tapping into the Strategic petroleum reserves releasing another 15 million barrels shortly before the midterms the short-term impacts of this are of course gas prices being kept artificially low even though nationally gas prices are creeping up again in places like California as the midterms are now over we might see the Biden regime slow down on tapping into the spr as a motivation to keep gas prices low is not really necessary anymore at least until the next major election in 2024 or until some other distraction is needed on a national scale the grand strategic question is and has been how far will the Biden regime go will they continue to tap into the spr until there simply is nothing more to tap I don't think anybody knows that at this point clearly we have the benefit of data we know how much Pol we consume nationally and we know how much we are importing and producing here at home and we know how much the spr currently holds when the spr starts running dry the Biden regime will be faced with a rather Simple Choice considering the complexity of the Pol industry either increase Imports or increased domestic production clearly Biden's visit to sweet talk the Saudis back in June didn't work out as OPEC just a couple of months ago announced that they would be cutting production granted OPEC doesn't necessarily put all of the weight of their decisions on their relations with the United States but there is enough of a link there to be concerned either way the clock is ticking it is true that even though the very first executive order Biden signed was to negatively impact the Pol industry the Biden regime has also quietly renewed some oil leases out west in order to boost domestic oil production most people think it's too little too late and only lip service but at this point it's something I guess as always it's hard to say how much of an impact these things have and the average citizen is most likely focused on the political and social implications rather than the large strategic economic ones it's quite clear that there is a concerted effort being undertaken by powerful governments individuals companies and non-governmental organizations which are intended to control populations via High petroleum prices and availability too you can't effectively organize a Revolt if you have to choose between food and a tank of gas and both food and transportation are actively being used right now as Weapons by governments all around the United States and around the world speaking of power and control the Biden regime has also declared that they will be extending the c19 emergency until April of next year in a move that surprises literally no one not much to say about this one other than when April rolls around it'll be extended again and again and so on again not much to say on that just wanted to let everyone know who had not heard moving on to the more spicy event that has come to light we at last have the still breaking FTX crypto laundering Scandal here's a brief rundown of what's happened FTX was the fifth largest cryptocurrency Exchange in the world or at least it was up until a few days ago when their founder and CEO Sam bankman freed suddenly got on a plane and disappeared into the night urging that there had been a Cyber attack and for all users to delete all FTX software immediately well details are still kind of sketchy but it seems like bankmen and other senior FTX staff had installed backdoor code into FTX software that allowed them to literally drain every user's account or at least that's what many users have reported after they logged in to see that they had a balance of zero due to the nature of how cryptocurrency exchanges work it's not clear as to how much money has been stolen so far figures have been in the ballpark of a few hundred million dollars worth but some estimates have been as high as tens of billions of dollars here's where the story gets a bit sketchy and also why you will not hear much about this at all from corporate Media or at least they're not going to make the link and that is the relationship between the Democratic party FTX and Ukraine what is Undisputed fact is that FTX had partnered with the state of Ukraine with President zielinski personally being involved in ftx's plan to quote turn a bit coin into bullets many of you remember that Ukraine had set up a specific banking system in coordination with Ukrainian Banks so that money could be sent by anyone around the world to support Ukraine's efforts to Stave off Russia's Invasion at the time this was touted as a way of preventing the usual fraud among ngos that happens during every crisis fake Charities pop up and money gets stolen or otherwise doesn't make it to the intended recipients we all know how less than honest individuals sometimes make their way into the charity world so this system was touted as one of the first options that people had to donate money and be sure that it actually didn't make it to who needed it claims which were backed up by Ukrainian Banks well it turns out that this system or at least the cryptocurrency side of the system that was maintained by FTX was all a scam FTX was the major entity who accepted donations of cryptocurrency and exchanged that currency for the fiat currency that the Ukrainian government need needed to run the war remember all of this was blessed off by the Ukrainian government and the donation page itself was literally hosted by the Ukrainian government on a government website a website which mysteriously vanished a few days before the FTX Scandal broke so the picture becomes a bit more clear but wait there's more Sam bankman the founder of FTX was the second largest donator in the history of the democratic party coming in just behind George Soros in terms of campaign donations for the midterm election that we just had a few days ago this is especially troubling considering how much of our tax money has been sent to Ukraine we have all been following the reports of the donations of U.S tax dollars to Ukraine but we never really see the meat and potatoes of how and where that money gets transferred we just see reports of Congress agrees to send 37 billion more dollars to Ukraine we don't actually see the account numbers that this goes into or how these transactions are handled what we see is the US government pumping U.S tech tax dollars into the money pit of Ukraine we don't know where it goes and the half-hearted attempts to provide some accountability for that money have not been fruitful at all and now we find out that the guy who's neck deep in the entire world of Ukrainian Finance has absconded with the doe oh and by the way he's one of the largest Democratic governors in history and he only created FTX in 2019. so the internet is a blaze with people being flabbergasted and incredulous that the following scenario has actually gone down the general thesis that many people seem to see right in front of their eyes is that the US government gave Ukraine a lot of money which was how should I say put in the washing machine and transferred back to the Democratic party in the form of campaign donations if this is true or even a shred of it is true then this would obviously be a pretty bold move and one might call it the crime of the century though in my opinion the crime of the century has already occurred anyway this incident is almost 2 insane to believe even after all of the stuff we've been living through over the past couple of years I myself do not know the full story no one does just yet but I am inclined to believe that what happened is exactly what we think happened even though we do not precisely know how U.S tax money is at play here we don't know how that factors into the whole crypto thing and how finances were transferred or if U.S tax dollars were a part of this fraud at all I'm still inclined to be a bit pessimistic on that front however taking a step back for a moment to look at things strategically if this is true then I think we have much less time than we think we do a washing operation as bold as this one potentially compromising official US Government transactions of U.S taxpayer money man Bernie Madoff had nothing on this accepting of course the c19 and Jab issues this could very well turn out to be the crime of the century oh but the two incidents are not entirely unrelated because you want to guess who funded the research that so-called proved that Ivermectin did not work yeah that research was funded by a group called together which was bankrolled by you guessed it FTX so there's that anyway it's also tiring and can be quite depressing if you dwell on it so we'll just leave it there for now and we'll come back and talk about some more details that are sure to come out over the next few weeks that pretty much wraps up the domestic issues for now we'll focus more on some more specific issues at a later time but right now let's jump to Europe there have been many major incidents that have taken place since the last brief but I wanted to focus on just two events for right now first up was the attack on the nordstream LNG pipelines in the Baltic Sea here's what we know so far back on September 26th the terminal operators detected pressure drops on both the nordstream one and two pipelines various Naval forces were dispatched to the scene of the suspected leak where this large kilometer wide gas field was discovered over the next few days several more leaks were detected additionally various military sonar arrays throughout the region reported hearing underwater explosions at the same time the leaks were detected clearly this was a deliberate attack an act of sabotage the question remains to this day who did it taking a step back for a moment I must acknowledge how serious of an event this is and that I cannot really go into much detail about what I'm about to say some of you might know that I have a bit of professional history surrounding undersea cables and pipelines most of the information surrounding what goes on down on the sea floor is very very secret and exactly what's capable is not public knowledge so all of that is to say that when I first heard of this attack I became more concerned than I have been in a very long time I truly thought that nukes would be in the air by the end of the day and that's because this event is again supposed to be one of the opening moves of a war with Russia throughout intelligent circles The Cutting of undersea cables and pipelines has widely been considered to be one of the opening moves of World War III this is because both the US and Russia the two biggest power players in the undersea game are traditionally believed to reserve such actions only in case of War it's what's been done and prepared for since the Cold War and there's just a sort of cultural understanding out there it's very similar to the idea of ballistic missile submarines we here in the U.S have ballistic missile boats and so does Russia and we both have fast attack Subs shadowing each other's Boomers pretty much at all times the understanding is that if anyone gets the order to launch the ballistic sub gets their missiles off or at least tries to before the other guy's fast attack boat Torpedoes them that's just the understanding that's in place a grand game of nuclear chicken similar situation with undersea cables both the US and Russia play games and we map and tap each other's cables or at least try to Russia doesn't have too many undersea cables or pipelines but of the few pipelines that Russia does have arguably the two most important are the Nordstrom one and two pipeline systems so here we are again witnessing an event that is by all historical accounts supposed to be one of the opening moves of a very kinetic nuclear war both cable and pipeline cutting are on the list of things that have happened already this year so maybe I need to take my own advice and reassess things from a 5th generation Warfare perspective sure anything can happen but two months have elapsed since the attack on the Nordstrom pipeline systems and we haven't all been burned up to a crisp adjust yet but the question remains who did it to that my answer is this every 5i partner plus Norway Sweden probably Denmark and the Netherlands and of course Germany as well all of these entities know 100 percent who the real culprit is these nations have spent an obscene amount of money and dedicated a significant portion of Naval intelligence to tracking Russian vessels particularly the ones capable of laying charges to to cut pipelines so the US government knows for sure who did it and of course I know it when we look at the list of Nations that can do something like this we're looking at pretty much anybody this is mostly due to the depth at which the attacks occurred if we're talking a super deep depth only accessible by especially crafted submarines we would really only be looking at just the us or Russia having this capability however since the leaks occurred in comparatively shallow water the list of suspects is pretty large so let's take a look at motivation let's let's see who would be motivated to blow up the Nordstrom pipelines well we can rule out Germany since that pipeline was their most direct source of natural gas at least prior to the Diplomatic problems that arose from the Ukrainian War just to be clear as a side note the pipeline wasn't actually in use at the time of the detonations which has been kind of the result of the Diplomatic deadlock regarding energy and the Ukrainian War speaking of the Ukrainian War what about Russia Russia built and owns both pipeline systems so what would they have to gain by blowing up their own pipeline well for one Russia could blow up the pipelines knowing that Western Powers wouldn't be willing to show the highly classified proof that Russia did it which would allow Russia to avoid the international finger-pointing that comes whenever they throttle the Pipelines so Russia could get what she wants denying Europe a critical supply of natural gas while at the same time remaining blameless that works right well not so much the issue is much more complicated than that for one and secondly Russia has so far been content to throttle the flow of natural gas whenever needed why would they blow up something when they can simply throttle it plus ever since the Ukrainian War has kicked off again in Earnest Russia would have to expect that Europe would sanction the pipeline anyway so it wouldn't be a solid source of income granted the situation for liquid natural gas in Europe is pretty desperate right now so who knows what Germany in particular might have done so we're sort of stuck aren't we well not really who do I think blow up the Nordstrom pipelines I think the United States did it why do I think that well it's pretty simple let me answer this first question first if Germany if uh if Russia invades uh that means tanks or troops crossing the uh the the border of Ukraine again then uh there will be uh we there will be no longer nor stream too we we will bring an end to it what what how will you do that exactly since the project and control of the project is within Germany's control we will I promise you we'll be able to do it yes that was a clip from February of this year in which the president of the United States clearly and directly threatens the Nordstrom pipelines granted Biden does not directly say we will blow up the pipelines but come on man I think that's pretty clear so if we take this quote at its full value I think that's that's pretty I mean that's clear enough for me to draw an assessment however if we wanted to go a step further and just and recognize the fact that a lot of times Biden doesn't really know what he's talking about we can look at the international reactions to get a better understanding of who it might have been and that's really the other main reason that I think it was the United States the the reactions of nearby Nations while the blasts took place in international waters the blasts were within the economic exclusion zones of both Sweden and Denmark both of which have stated that they are not treating this attack as an attack on their nation which is fishy because they certainly could have made that claim and militarily have been preparing for just that scenario for decades it's a case of militaries preparing for X event training long and hard solidifying their response if x event occurs then X event does occur and suddenly everybody's all about solving the problem diplomatically it doesn't make a whole lot of sense granted I do have a sneaking suspicion that based on what I've seen over the past few months world leaders are genuinely concerned about starting a kinetic World War III uh I think that of course this is an issue to get more into at a later time so I don't want to digress too far but I do think that despite the fact that we're fighting you know in a military-industrial complex and a lot of money is being made on all sides by the threat of conflict throughout Europe I don't think that anybody really genuinely wants it to actually break off you know break out in Earnest which is some halfway good news I guess because it seems like everybody had the justification to do something militarily about this pipeline issue and no one has everybody is trying to kind of sweep it under the rug now this could be because the European nations are genuinely concerned about poking the Bear in any meaningful militarily you know way not just rhetoric they could be concerned about that for real or it was the United States and they knew about it ahead of time or they figured out so they're not trying to push the investigation too hard either way I am absolutely positive that the dudes over in the Russian Gucci directorate are punching the air right now because blowing up pipelines and cutting cables is pretty much the only reason they exist so all in all what does this mean well the entire Nordstrom project is probably dead in the water so to speak repair is going to be tricky the issues of corrosion and winter weather being the chief concerns plus nobody's really keen on rebuilding a pipeline that's just going to sit there idle anyway as long as the Ukrainian War rages on and Western hysteria continues with it the North Regine pipeline project is probably probably going to be over it will be interesting to see what the Western response will be in the long term though we've already seen levels of mild-mannered temperance that are only present when one is the culprit of what one is investigating so time will tell what washes up with this one in a similar vein the other major supposedly World War III starting event occurred just a couple of days ago and this was the missile strike that killed two farmers along the Polish border these two farmers were killed by at least one projectile at approximately the same time that Russia had launched a large-scale rocket artillery barrage in Ukraine initial reports were that the one or possibly two projectiles that killed the farmers were an errant missile fired by Russian forces however subsequent analysis of some of the debris revealed that the projectile may have been a missile from a Ukrainian s-300 air defense system right now a lot of finger pointing is going on with all sides engaging in prop propaganda as expected the response from Ukraine Poland and the rest of NATO has been very telling in the minutes after the incident The only voice we heard was zielinski's who was foaming at the mouth to get Poland to invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter which is the one that refers to an attack on one member state is an attack on all in other words zlinsky wasted no time at all to draw NATO into their War just as he is done from the very start also interesting has been the response of the United States seeing as the United States has also been chomping at the bit to further their money laundering operation in Ukraine the United States has been very quiet the Pentagon immediately issued a press statement basically saying we can't corroborate that the missile was Russian in origin and Biden outright refused to answer the reporter's question on the topic as well pretty fishy for a regime which has been looking for every opportunity to expand the conflict perhaps most troubling has been Poland's response which was quite serious as you would expect following the death of Polish citizens for a while their Poland was was considering activating Article 4 of the NATO Charter which basically invokes military consultation of member states and Poland still might do that that would be probably the minimum that they would do if the missile had actually been Russian in origin uh we would be looking at the classic military response of some kind of surgical strike on probably the facility that launched the missile or the unit that launched it but now that we find out that the missile that killed two polish citizens is almost certainly Ukrainian in origin well now the rhetoric has completely changed and the incident is now quote an unfortunate accident I feel like NATO and Poland are going to brush this one under the rug and try to memory hold this one why well there are a few theories that I and most of the internet immediately had the fact that Ukraine immediately called for Article 5 to be invoked was suspicious especially considering the speed at which this announcement was was made right it's almost like it was pre-prepared I mean the crater was still smoking when zielinski got on t TV and made his claims that you know Nick Poland should invoke article 5. so this whole incident is so fishy that many people are thinking that this whole thing was intentional on the part of Ukraine and intentional false flag attack intended to force NATO into the conflict the whole thing gets a lot more fishy considering that Lloyd Austin the U.S Secretary of Defense during a press conference made the statement that Ukrainian air defense Interceptor missiles have had a 100 percent success rate meaning that every interceptor missile that has been launched has destroyed its Russian Target or functioned as intended so the story that this might have been a malfunctioning Ukrainian missile that missed the Russian missile it was aiming for and landed in Poland that story you know it would have been likely in any other situation but man as time goes on it's looking less and less likely but again this is all very heavy with speculation at this point I think that once again the larger lesson here is to be very careful where you get your information from I myself have taken step back or rather a giant leap back from All Things Ukraine because the truth is completely non-existent regarding most things that have happened during the war so far sure there are lots of smaller more tactical Lessons Learned you know that stuff is helpful but if I had to pick one lesson that I've learned so far it's that fifth generation Warfare is real and that this war is just as much of a psychological one as it is physical so when it comes to where things stand right now the situation throughout Europe is tense for sure and will be so for a long time the impacts of cross-border fires whether it's an intentional false flag attack a genuine mistake or something else combined with blown up pipelines will most certainly be felt intensely for the foreseeable future fortunately neither event has resulted in us being burned to a crisp at least not yet and all that somewhat cheery news I think we'll wrap things up for today am I concerned about the fate of Europe and by default the rest of the world yes absolutely I can only say I'm concerned so many times before it gets tiring but we'll carry on we're already far past my own personal benchmarks for when I would have imagined a global war to break out which I think means that World War III has already started as I've been saying for about a year now can we walk things back and head in the right direction sure will we I don't know either way the result is the same for average People Like Us make good decisions learn new things meet new people and drink some water taking things one day at a time certainly seems to be a good place to start so let's keep doing that anyway that's all I've got for now I hope to finish up some of the more doctrinal stuff we've been working on pretty soon here so stay tuned for that and of course we'll be working on some communication stuff in the near future as well so thank you again for all of your support and we will see you next time and as always fight in the shade
S2 briefing · 2022-03-30

5th Generation Warfare: History, Modern Context, and (Some) Solutions

[Music] [Music] with everything going on in the world today a lot of people are asking a lot of questions most of which kind of come back to the same overarching question what is going on today we will attempt to provide one answer to that question i say one answer because there is no one answer to the world's problems but maybe one answer might help us identify some solutions to the problems at hand and that answer could lie within the idea of fifth generation warfare if only the idea itself wasn't so much of a paradox so what is fifth generation warfare well that's the trouble isn't it you can pause the video and go google the term fifth generation warfare and you might find some information or a wikipedia article that does a poor job at explaining what it is chances are you're not easily going to find a good definition for it so we will have to come at this topic indirectly by first talking about the first four generations of warfare and be advised a lot of this stuff is really hard to understand it even gets right down to the philosophy of the universe itself so thinking about this topic is not for the faint of heart for the first four generations of warfare we can think of these topics as different ages of warfare all separated by technology and innovation more or less the first generation of warfare is pretty simple it's what we think of when we think of ancient warfare first gen warfare is characterized by certain tactics like the phalanx or line and column attacks of large armies clashing together on open battlefields this is the first real categorization of warfare in which nation states or groups or societies acting as nation-states fought against each other over time as technology progressed and allowed humans to kill each other more efficiently the second generation of warfare was born technologies such as rifled weapons machine guns and significant developments in the field of artillery for this era of warfare think world war one this is really where the term modern warfare comes into play where technological developments forced radical changes in the field of warfare gone were the days where large long lines of troops advanced over open ground welcome to the trenches but as we know following the carnage of world war one we have the interwar years the years between the first and second world wars during this time humanity experienced yet more technological growth and again developed a third generation of warfare we went very quickly from the sopwith camel and the zeppelin to the messerschmitt and the b-17 flying fortress and the technological developments of the inner warriors were quite astounding and occurred very rapidly even within the field of aviation this the bristol f2 became this the spitfire in less than nine years but in this era of warfare we also have developments on the ground namely by a little thing called the vegans creek maneuver warfare also called blitzkrieg by those who find bevegan's creek unpronounceable using speed and maneuverability to rapidly reach objectives in conjunction with a highly mobile infantry and further developments in combined arms warfare the third generation of warfare gives us world war ii but in the final days of world war ii a new war was building the nuclear weapon and its use in combat was one of the most important events in human history and as a result the cold war developed conflict in an atomic age in which conflicts existed but took the form of proxy wars this is when technological developments change the nature of warfare yet again this is the era of stealth instead of using brute force using precision guided munitions instead of carpet bombing campaigns remember we're still in the third generation of warfare still in the world war two mentality for conflicts like korea the vietnam war the persian gulf war and even the later iraq war the third generation of warfare encompasses the winning hearts and minds concepts we know all too well new toys like stealth bombers and satellites changed a lot but the end goals and the strategy used to achieve those goals was very similar as to how the majority of world war ii was fought but one of these wars is not like the other again hinting at the academic squabbling that occurs when trying to define these things so to explain that let's jump to the fourth generation of warfare the fourth gen of warfare can be defined in a single word insurgency and this is where things start becoming political and the amateur historian starts running into some problems with the research for instance one of the first academics to talk about 4th generation warfare is william s lind lind who is the most prolific writer on 4th gen warfare even has his wikipedia page slathered with politics we see that on his own page he is defined as a conservative why does that matter if we're talking about warfare doctrine he is defined by his politics first in his work second and scrolling down the page under the criticism section we have the very first complaints from the southern poverty law center so yeah there you go can't really get any reliable information from wikipedia anymore an idea which is thick with irony considering the topic interestingly enough it looks like most of his criticism comes from him linking his thoughts on warfare doctrine to cultural marxism which explains everything can't talk about communism or marxism in today's world or point out its problems without being labeled as a far-right extremist which is exactly what seems to have happened here too but anyway if you dig deep enough you will find one of len's thoughts on 4th gen warfare in which he defines it as when the state loses its monopoly in war he goes on to say that all over the world state militaries find themselves fighting non-state opponents such as al qaeda hamas hezbollah and the revolutionary armed forces of colombia almost everywhere the state is losing fourth generation warfare is also marked by a return to a world of cultures not merely states in conflict we now find ourselves facing the christian west's oldest and most steadfast opponent islam of course linde wrote this in the context of speaking about the then current u.s wars in the middle east but the interesting thing to note is that these wars have been occurring for a long time like i mentioned when explaining third gen warfare there is a bit of academic squabbling that goes on for instance take the vietnam war here you have a conflict that exhibits two styles of warfare in the years since vietnam has become the infamous poster child for that deadly eye word insurgency a disturbing number of people do not know that the vietnam war was far more conventional than we think we think the word vietnam and images of the vietcong come to mind u.s soldiers patrolling through the jungles and getting ambushed around every corner but there was this thing called the north vietnamese army which was a legitimate conventional military force no one knows about this more than the military aviation communities entire generations of military aviators have been trained with doctrine developed from the forgotten air war of vietnam the entire concept of the wild weasels and the doctrine of the suppression of enemy air defenses is a massive part of modern warfare from iraq to bosnia to right now in ukraine but at the same time the conventional third generation war was raging in north vietnam in cambodia and laos some dudes in black pajamas were defining the fourth generation of warfare which at last brings us to the fifth generation of warfare and here's where we start running into problems again because academics cannot agree on whether or not fifth generation warfare even exists up until this moment warfare has been defined by what some have called the theory of sequential emergence which is just a fancy way of saying that the first generation of warfare led to the second and the lessons learned during the second gen led to the third and so on daniel abbott came up with this graphic which indicates that the generations of war build upon one another and exist at the same time each progressive generation of warfare does not totally replace the generation before it but rather builds on it which allows for lesser developed styles of warfare to exist and be conducted at the same time in other words if your primary military operation is counterinsurgency you can still have conventional third or even second generation conflicts occurring simultaneously but the fifth generation of warfare seems to break this mold it seems like most people who talk and argue about fifth generation warfare are at least united on one thing fifth gen warfare does not really adhere to this progressive generation model so let's address some of these theories and try to piece together what fifth generation warfare actually is like i mentioned most academics sort of agree on the first four gens of warfare however that's where the similarities end a few academics such as william lind have stated that the fifth gen of warfare is really just a collection of tactics that should be nestled under the fourth or even third generation of warfare so it really doesn't have a definition as a separate field of warfare which makes sense because he's the guy who literally wrote the book on 4th gen warfare remember history is written by humans humans which have opinions make mistakes and have other faults that's why history lies in the heart of the debate and why we need to crack open another book if we take a look at daniel abbott's book adequately titled the handbook of 5th generation warfare he states that 5th gen warfare is a war of information and perception which sounds about right but that's a really broad definition but we'll come back to that in a moment others such as the us air force see 5th generation warfare is simply an extension of the air war they see it as a sensor problem and that a military aircraft that is capable of waging 5th gen warfare will have certain sensors communication suites and other various electronics and capabilities to operate in highly contested battle spaces hmm not quite what we're going for is it this is great and all but not really what we're talking about with regards to fifth generation warfare itself this is defining the fifth generation of fighter aircraft which is not the same thing but this is important to note because the term fifth generation was first coined in this context which is why a lot of military strategists think of fifth generation warfare in terms of technology or sensors which is again not the right way to think about it in fact the people's liberation army of china figured this out a long time ago in 1999 a book or really rather a white paper which became highly controversial throughout the defense community in the early 2000s two colonels of the people's liberation army wrote a book called unrestricted warfare in which they examined this topic particularly in the context of a conflict with the west in their book they state that what we are referring to are not changes in the instruments of war the technology of war the modes of war or the forms of war what we are referring to is the function of warfare so again this hints at the fifth generation of warfare not simply being a new sequential progression of war this is also noted in a very short paper published by the think tank 360 isr which mentions that we are no longer fighting a defined adversary in a defined battle space for a defined period of time instead the 5th generation mission space is a continuous global battle of narratives that will play out over both virtual and physical space and encompass a range of violent and non-violent actions and effects that's a pretty solid definition of fifth generation warfare however we again are reading this from a perspective of nation-state warfare this paper goes on to say that nations will seek to defend their borders through the extension of military influence examples include the deployment of double-digit sams and iskander missiles in kaliningrad or the build-up of defenses on hitherto unhabited islands in the south china sea therefore the experiences and lessons of third and fourth generation warfare still have great utility militaries still need to maintain and develop the capability to defeat a more traditional adversary in a technologically complex environment all of this i would agree with in the context of a nation-state's concerns with the changing nature of warfare it makes a lot of sense for defense officials to think along these lines however i'm not a cadet writing term papers at west point and though the two topics are heavily linked by the very nature of fifth generation warfare itself we here are more concerned with the civilian implications of this changing style of warfare especially considering that it is in the civilian space that this war is being fought and here the elephant begins to appear in the room this paper literally just stated that in a fifth generation war we will not be able to define our adversaries and by default the other side of that coin is that we will not know who our allies are either and so we begin to plant the seed of what very few academics want to talk about us marine corps lieutenant colonel stanton kohr got a little closer to what we're trying to get at in the marine corps gazette from january 2009 he takes a more boots on ground approach to describing the symptoms of a fifth generation warfare he writes that the battlefield will be something strange cyberspace or the cleveland water supply or wall street's banking systems or youtube the mission will be instilling fear and it will succeed lieutenant colonel core's idea is a common one among fifth generation warfare theorists and one that you often see online by various websites claiming that fifth generation warfare is simply a war of propaganda or a war for your mind or something like that and i think that that simple definition is quite accurate but not totally remember the tactics used in warfare sometimes do not reflect and are oftentimes counterintuitive to the end goal for instance psychological warfare uses various means to get a person to think a certain way about something but is that the final goal no the final goal is to get a person to act a certain way actions are more devastating than thoughts in warfare but since thoughts lead to actions we see a lot of tactics being used to affect thoughts so all of this considered we can cobble together a rough list of some characteristics of fifth generation warfare as it applies to civilian and military communities alike first up is mass cyber attacks not attributable to an actor or a nation-state this one is kind of easy as many people have stated over the years the impact of cyber warfare on everything will be extremely significant very little has been done over the years to combat the rising threat of technologies on our critical infrastructure we have already found the vulnerability of somewhat invulnerable scada systems when it comes to pol or petroleum oil and lubricant production and the massive waves of cyber attacks at the commercial and at the consumer levels have proven the vulnerabilities in these areas as well very very little can be done about cyber attacks at the consumer level especially considering the interconnected nature of everything these days but we will address this when we talk solutions so this characteristic is pretty short just think matrix level cyber stuff that you have no idea where it's coming from a major part of fifth generation warfare but still pretty easy to think about something a little more complex is mass social engineering which if conducted by a nation state the social engineering might be conducted on their own citizenry again this is not a surprising tactic as societal norms and skills change social engineering becomes a much more significant threat than in years past some could make the argument that people today are simply more stupid than in years past so social engineering works quite well whereas people in the past would never fall for the social engineering tricks of today while i myself fight the urge to agree with the cognitive decline of modern societies and cultures i begrudgingly admit that it's not as simple as people being stupid in our modern world what's more accurate is that people in today's world are vulnerable to social engineering that is different from people in the past our modern world has made many comparisons to the past akin to comparing apples and oranges which is something that militaries nation states and especially non-state actors have taken note of and that's why social engineering is a critical tool for waging a fifth generation war another attribute of a fifth generation war is that conflict will exhibit a lack of us versus them nature rather the conflict itself is often observed to be spontaneous much like with cyber attacks kinetic actions when they do occur in a fifth generation war are often seemingly random since we cannot observe the lead-up to the conflict conflagrations might pop up over a social event and might even be egged on by silent actors who seek to capitalize on the destabilization never let a good crisis go to waste right but the conflicts that do occur will not look like your normal conflicts of the past you might have some actors strike back against an adversary by targeting a third-party group to the bystanders this will make no logical sense but to the belligerents this makes perfect sense in the context of a fifth generation war that does not play by the classic us versus them mentality that's a lot of funny words so what does this mean in plain english well due to how globalization has severely warped our logistical networks it means to get ready for some weird stuff russia invades ukraine well we're gonna fight back by pouring out government purchased alcohol that taxpayers already paid for medical tyranny no longer working congratulations physically exercising at home is now white supremacy oh our economy is failing oh i know what will fix it putting uniformed u.s soldiers in elementary schools of course a lot of these examples are more accurately explained by the state seeking to increase their influence and control over the american people rather than the strange nature of 5th generation warfare but you get the point at the end of the day this illustrates the complexity and the self-fulfilling nature of a fifth generation war school teachers start teaching extreme political ideology and utter perversion in schools which makes parents upset which makes the doj upset and they start labeling parents as terrorists which makes the parents even more livid and brings people who don't even have kids into the fray along with social movements which impacts the economic sector and brings in career politicians with their own egotistical and tyrannical goals so now you've got a multi-front war going on which just keeps churning on its own because everyone is fighting everyone else and all originating from a single point of origin points of origin which are sometimes linked to the next point which is that non-state actors are becoming primary belligerents another main characteristic of fifth generation war that separates it from even fourth generation war is the nature and power of non-state actors and no we're not talking about a terror group or cell that's covered in fourth generation warfare remember 4g warfare is insurgencies right fifth generation warfare takes it to another degree by including private companies just look around the world today and we can make some pretty interesting observations with regards to so-called private companies and their relationship with other non-state actors or even the state itself i know that we keep harping on the biden regime but this is actually a very fascinating example of the unique nature of the relationship between private companies and a nation state in a 5g war for instance a lot of people have noticed the extremely overwhelming support from private companies to protect the biden regime even when the vital regime didn't really explicitly ask for it a great example of this is the media and again it's utterly fascinating right now it's pretty obvious that the biden regime is directing all mainstream media sources at some point they've openly admitted to such in the past but it's not total control it's influence the regime wants remember there is not a white house representative sitting in msnbc's studio directing the show no we now live in a world of fact checkers who have been delegated the power to broadcast propaganda and push content that supports the regime sometimes they guess right and sometimes they accidentally go against the regime thus the thousands of news articles that have been changed this is a major part of fifth generation warfare not necessarily the propaganda itself but how private companies will seek to prop up nation states and political regimes with fervor that even the regime themselves thinks is surprising in a traditional political structure or even a traditional dictatorship you would think that propaganda is directed from the top down that the nation-state is totally controlling and directing their media organizations but there's the difference in a 5g war it might be the other way around governments themselves might be the ones with the training wheels and private companies the ones with their hands on the seat saying good job obviously this is not the case everywhere but the bottom line is that in a fifth generation war the nation state is no longer the big dog in town and due to all of the information warfare that is also present in a fifth generation war governments might not even know that they aren't top dog in certain circumstances that's why people are now talking a lot about the new world order and other similar stuff in the open now because it's quite plain to see that there are non-state organizations entities and lines of effort that appear to be transnational is the world economic forum more powerful than a nation-state i don't know i guess it would depend on the nation-state i think that that organization specifically is not some kind of james bond spectre group despite the fact that they desperately want to be i think they're just another player and interest group on the board of globalization they might want to be the puppet masters of the world but they're still fighting to achieve that goal just like everyone else the great reset being their front line in this global fifth generation war of course this is all debatable but what is certain is that these guys and other non-state actors like them wield a lot of influence and though their success is not explicitly guaranteed their mere existence is exactly the type of thing that you would expect to see in a fifth generation war another unfortunate characteristic of a fifth generation war is nation states or powerful actors possessing the wrong tools for the job in other words nation states will fight the fight that fits one's weapons the united states has built a military centered around fighting insurgencies and though the pivot back to a more traditional near-pier fight has become more pressing following the pacific pivot to counter china and even the current ukrainian war the fact of the matter is that the us is best equipped to fight insurgencies so it is an insurgency they will fight even if that is not the right tool for the job this is kind of linked to what i was talking about when it comes to the lack of an us versus them nature right you're going to have nation states or powerful actors or non-state actors fighting against each other it's not really like a proxy war situation it's more like an innocent bystander or a non-affiliated group or society gets impacted by this conflict seemingly out of nowhere but due to the 5th generation warfare model it kind of makes sense like china is getting handsy in the south pacific or the insurgencies are kicking up in north africa again or russia has invaded ukraine well the solution to that is launch a counter insurgency mission here in the u.s like that's seen that's kind of like the the way we're going to see this being manifested remember ever since the military occupation of washington dc in the days leading up to and the months after the 2020 inauguration the united states government has increasingly leaned on skills technology and doctrine that was learned and developed during the global war on terror it might not be as simple as like russia invading ukraine and the us can't do anything about that so we're going to target our own people because that's what we know how to do it's not really that simple but it sure seems like it tactics like crowd control checkpoints aerial surveillance and urban warfare have already been weaponized against the american people in short the us military is already a mile down the dangerous path of treating the national mall like baghdad and treating american citizens like iraqis of course this is not happening everywhere just yet but the fact that it happened in the first place breaks the illusion that it can't happen and the undisputed fact the undeniable reality that we have already seen certain states using armed soldiers to set up checkpoints on highways and checking the identity papers of citizens well i guess we are much closer to being treated like iraqi citizens than we thought and since these comments will invariably result in a lot of discussion let's briefly follow that rabbit hole a bit further if all you have is a hammer every problem is a nail and right now the us military law enforcement and federal agencies are the hammer and the nail is the citizenry just trying to live their lives with as much freedom as possible which is the antithesis of most political regimes regardless of the political party i know a lot of military folks out there might not want to hear this because people do not want to think that they might be the bad guy after all most military service members sign up to do good things and serve their country and for the men and women that are still dedicated to that despite fighting a losing battle those service members should be an inspiration to us all for those who are fighting back and actually living up to their oath we have nothing but the highest respect but from the civilian side of things we have to acknowledge that some of their compatriots and most of their commanders and leadership do not have the same dedication to the oath they swore right now there is a sort of reckoning within the us military there is an increasing number of people in the military especially senior leadership that care nothing about service and only care about the paycheck or their stock options there is also a disturbing number of military leaders that have more sadistic motives i can only speak about my own experiences and reference the experiences of the team here but in my own career working in an s2 or s3 shop i can confidently say that the majority of commanders i have worked with i would want nowhere near a domestic u.s mission of any kind in years past it would have been out of the question to suggest that most military service members would do the wrong thing and commit immoral and illegal actions against u.s citizens on u.s soil that used to be unthinkable but these days clinging to that mentality is not the best move i'm not trying to throw shade at the us military and i don't hold animosity towards service members especially considering the hardships that they have had to go through with regards to the medical mandates but for many those medical mandates are very illuminating most service members are jabbed and because of that what am i a us citizen supposed to think about service members prospects of refusing even more serious orders if they won't fight back against the one that just requires some paperwork i'm sorry but the soldier who takes up arms to prevent me from traveling between states or prevents me from getting within a mile of the house of the people that soldier is not my friend no matter how they might feel about the mission they might complain they might know that what they are doing is wrong in every conceivable way or they might only realize that what they are doing is wrong after the fact then i empathize with soldiers in that tough situation i really do but at the end of the day they made not just one choice but a series of choices and those choices result in shifting the nature of the relationship between the citizenry and the military we can no longer let our extremely high respect for service members cloud our judgment when it comes to holding people accountable for their actions and i understand why people don't like to talk about this stuff like it's perfectly fine it's perfectly socially acceptable i guess to lay criticism at senior dod officials we can rag on lloyd austin and joe biden all day long and you know of course some people will be upset at that but for the most part those are safe targets right those are safe things to talk about where people won't get upset but don't you dare talk about cousin timmy in the national guard he's a sweet boy he's a good person and he would never do anything wrong he was just following orders actions like this make us realize that there needs to be a healthy distance between the power of the institutions and the monopoly those institutions have on violence and the citizenry and despite that the dod clearly wants there to be an adversarial relationship there there doesn't necessarily need to be there just needs to be a healthy respect between the military and the citizenry and the fact that the institutions are changing the way that we have to think about things the us government has segregated itself from the citizenry in every conceivable way but especially judicially so we would do well to recognize that so sorry for the digression i know that we're supposed to be talking about fifth generation warfare but that's the interesting part we have been talking about it this entire time i know it may not seem like it but examining the relationship between the citizenry and the institutions that are causing problems is a critical part of fighting back in a fifth generation war it was the department of defense not me that started this the dod and the current political regime brought warfare into our living rooms and onto our streets and though the price for this has yet to be paid a side effect of these actions is that people like me now have to look at this which leads us to attributing these actions as a characteristic of a fifth generation war being waged on u.s citizens it's uncomfortable it really is but at this point my own state's national guard has restricted my freedoms more than any foreign nation ever has and ignoring this fact because it makes military leadership uncomfortable or trying to provide excuses for service members choices out of respect for their service is negligent on our part remember there are a lot of other non-5th gen wars going on right now and there are a lot of threats we have to face in the world today and we need a strong military but we are not going to win those conflicts if we are stuck fighting a 5th gen war here at home which is why these uncomfortable conversations must happen so we can see how this is an insanely difficult problem to define especially with other conflicts occurring that are muddying the waters a lot of people in the field of warfare academia have struggled to define this every few years someone comes up with a new way to try to categorize it remember the whole small wars theory from a few years back this was the theory that in a post-nuclear post-mutually assured destruction age we will not have large devastating global wars but rather smaller more frequent proxy wars in far-flung regions of the earth well the ukrainian war is kind of disproving that theory right now but if you boil it down it seems like the small wars theory is really just a re-categorization of the nature of insurgencies and how technology has aided them sprinkled with a few fifth generation warfare tactics that nation states have been using since the great bog down of g watt we've got a lot of arguments here on how to define and categorize the tactics and characteristics that we observe but there's a huge problem what if we do not observe the tactics if you go up to a vending machine and it takes your dollar without giving you your bag of chips you wouldn't think anything of it yeah you'd be annoyed but you wouldn't look at it like it's a hostile action against you you wouldn't treat that as a hostile action against yourself by a nation-state or other malign actor it's just something that happens now what if it was a voting machine ah now we might start attributing a bit of malign action to something like that due to the context that's a bit more clear to define and academics can argue over what box to put election tampering in but you see our perspective on things and our historical ability to recognize what is a hostile action is heavily affected by this new age of warfare something bad happens to us and we want to attribute it to an adversary but if we can't we just suck it up and go without our bag of chips or even worse we shove another dollar into the same machine again hoping the result will change something else to consider is that a lot of people or really just the four people who care about these kinds of topics tried to apply the debates we've seen in the world of artificial intelligence which i think is interesting for instance a lot of people have been thinking about artificial intelligence and have had a lot of thoughts on it for instance elon musk is well known for his really serious thoughts on ai that do not reflect a bright future for humans stephen hawking was also well known for his views of ai stating that whereas the short-term impacts of ai depends on who controls it the long-term impact depends on whether it can be controlled at all the same line of thinking the same philosophy and reasoning can and in our opinion should be applied to this new style of warfare that's what makes 5th generation warfare something unique and not just a technological progression following 4th gen warfare here's what i think a 5th gen war will be over or it will have transitioned to something else before most people even realize it has even begun i think that we're currently fighting a global 5th gen war right now and i'm not really so concerned with what box it goes into call it 6th or 7th gen warfare i don't care and the symptoms of this war will make no sense when compared to the previous lines of thinking like how many of you out there have gone through your day and just suddenly felt anxious for no apparent reason or you psych yourself out with just your own thoughts about something or experience symptoms of depression or apathy again for no reason whatsoever or even just the feeling that something isn't quite right but you can't figure out what it is i'm certainly no psychologist but i can tell you that all of the above is exactly what i would expect a 5th generation war to look like and we are not alone in these observations i think this is why so many ideas are coming out right now ideas that used to be labeled as ridiculous conspiracy theories now the general theory is becoming that the only difference between an outlandish conspiracy theory and undisputed fact is about six months can you have a war without conflict a war where there are no enemies and no allies but casualties everywhere a war in which actual combat isn't really the main attack but you standing at a vending or voting machine is you see how philosophical and weird this stuff gets it goes way over my head and it drives me crazy it really does i don't think you guys know how hard it was to write this script because man i tell you this stuff is really freaky to think about and put into words on paper and thinking along these lines illustrates where most academics who have discussed 5th gen warfare have gone astray every single person who has discussed fifth generation warfare has done so from the perspective of a military strategist or a military historian which is not inherently bad that actually makes the most sense you would expect the same guy who spent years writing about 3rd or 4th gen warfare to naturally talk about the 5th gen of warfare and how technology has affected the history of war however we think that a milestone has been reached we think that 5th generation warfare is just as much a concern to civilian academics as military strategists after all we are not fighting this fifth generation war in a lecture hall at west point or in a conference room full of majors and colonels we are living this war in our grocery stores in our schools and in our homes this is not some issue that can be philosophized over mahogany conference tables this is our life now so at last after taking all of these ideas and putting them together we can piece together our definition for what fifth generation warfare really is fifth generation warfare is defined as a global war of ideas and narratives this style of war is primarily fought in the information space however the actions undertaken in the information space are not intended to be the final goal but rather a way to affect the physical kinetic battle spaces cyber warfare is a critical part of fifth generation warfare but these tactics do not supersede the overall function of fifth generation warfare rather actions in the cyber battle space are a tool to both supplement traditional forms of military warfare while simultaneously serving as a tool that certain actors can utilize to further their war of ideas the ambiguous nature of this cyber realm most clearly illustrates the uncertainty present through this style of warfare and the struggle that is present through societies as citizens try to make sense of their world around them this ambiguity is key the perfect crime is the one that no one ever knows has been committed and as such a perfect fifth generation war is one that the target never even knew occurred so what do we think are we currently fighting a fifth generation war without knowing it and what's the end result if we soak up all of this information in these theories can we get to an answer to the primary question what is going on i think that united states political and social groups in their lust for power and control have stumbled into starting a fifth gen war in some cases this appears to have been unintentional due to gross incompetence and negligence but in other cases fifth generation warfare tactics have been used to intentionally target opponents we know that this fifth generation war is not perfect and ripe with incompetence because we are talking about it in the first place echoing rene descartes we think that fifth generation warfare exists therefore it is not a perfect exemplification of it however there is a great danger in simply dismissing world events or domestic us policies particularly economics policies due to incompetence u.s politicians and oligarchs far too often fall into the trap of the dunning-kruger effect so we the american people cannot afford to overestimate our abilities or underestimate our adversaries regardless of what style of warfare is occurring even the dreaded indefinable and mystical fifth generation war humans can only really use critical thinking skills to determine the best ways of fighting this war which is what we can try to do right now every problem has a solution and even if the solutions we've come up with don't exactly work at least they're not terrible ideas and it might be a good way to move in the right direction so let's go down the list here's how you win a fifth generation war number one is take care of your weapon remember this war is a battle of wills more than anything else and the attempts to psych you out and make you think and act a certain way are the main weapon against you in a fifth generation war your primary weapon is your mind in conventional warfare a good soldier takes care of his weapon cleaning and lubricating it to ensure that it is ready for the fight at any moment this same exact dedication is absolutely crucial in a fifth generation war when your weapon is not a rifle but the square foot of real estate between your ears and doing everything possible to preserve your primary weapon and ensuring that it is in tip-top shape at all times is crucial gas lighting is a primary weapon in this war and you will not be able to fight back against that if you are not in the right mindset take the ukraine situation for instance yes it is true that the ukrainian war is a major conflict that has already had lifelong devastating effects for the ukrainian people and the russian citizenry as well but here in my living room the war for me is people or bots on twitter warping reality so much that it's not even recognizable that's partly why we've had little success in providing updates on what's going on in ukraine the war on ukraine is certainly real with real artillery and real molotovs but for me at home the 5th generation war rages on and while the team here is trying to track down tweets our gas prices are climbing higher food is becoming scarce rationing is going on all around fertilizer shortages are making gardening more difficult and the issues that we need to care about first on the home front take a back seat to the 5th generation war and that needs to stop i'm not saying to completely ignore everything that goes on outside your living room the conflict in ukraine has proven what people have apparently forgotten over the years that a war halfway around the planet can and usually does affect your life here at home so pay attention but do not let it run your life do not let it become part of your identity and if things get crazy remember to keep your head on straight reassess what your priorities are and what's important to you finding ways of reducing stress physical exercise nutrition finding religion or some other form of assured moral value system are all extremely important aspects of keeping your mental state in fighting condition in this same category of keeping your mind in the right place it would be wise to re-examine other lifestyle habits this is something that i'm actually surprised that i haven't seen a lot of people talk about to me this is just a natural line of thinking but for many this is a subject that not a lot of people want to hear so i'm just going to come out and say it if someone is known to drink alcohol to excess or consume copious amounts of narcotics i'm not likely to want them on my team this has nothing to do with religious moral or legal reasons or even with the vulnerabilities that come with such lifestyle choices but rather the dedication to helping us fix problems yeah sure people can bring up their rights to consume whatever they want and that's fine obviously i'm not speaking to those fighting addictions there's always room at the table for those who are fighting to make themselves a better person i'm really referring to those who have social addictions or those who think that their behavior in this regard doesn't matter because it certainly does and here's why if someone is constantly trying to alter their reality escape the world for some time i am not likely to listen to them for solutions on how to fix the world we live in or to fight in this 5th generation war their solution is to leave the world my solution is to try to fix it people can do what they want and i don't necessarily fault people for consuming drugs or alcohol for any number of reasons but at the same time i also need people on my team that do not need these things to function i need lean mean and efficient warfighters if someone is known to get plastered or high every weekend i question their dedication to helping fix the world if they are constantly trying to escape it no matter how popular their podcast is a lot of people will not agree with this opinion and that's fine but what is undeniable is that if we want to fix the world or even just a small portion of it we have got our work cut out for us and we cannot spare any brain cells in this endeavor we need excellence or at least the dedication to the attempt to achieve excellence and if you are trying to be a leader in your community anything less will be a disappointment number two is take actions to make the tools of 5th generation warfare irrelevant to you if the government has the monopoly on violence take actions to not meet that violence head-on but make it irrelevant make the us government deploy 65 000 troops in and around the us capital and not a single protester or target to be seen let them put up their fence around the houses of the people let them besiege themselves and isolate themselves from the american people because last time i checked weed and corn has not grown anywhere inside the city limits of washington dc when thinking about fifth generation war globalization has made it really hard to think of in terms of a regional conflict most 5th gen warfares will be global in nature but if we take the slice of the pie that is the conflict here in the u.s we can clearly see the things that have already been weaponized against the american people the past two years have been a free preview of what is to come and now that the jig is up it would be wise to look back and remember what the architects of the 5th gen war that took place here at home did to the american people energy food employment interstate travel access to medical care the right to raise and care for your own child the intentional lack of policing in certain areas access to defensive tools and countless other tactics have been used against the american people over the past two years sure we can define this as tyranny or totalitarianism and that would be accurate but what would also be accurate is defining these events as tactics in a fifth generation war that is using tyranny and totalitarianism in order to win prepping in this scenario is good because it allows you to have capabilities when others don't if and when your local government tells you that they will shut off your power and water supply because you disagreed with them if you are prepared you will be able to say right back to them bring it on by preparing you are reducing the power that others have over you number three is raise your children to have good values and not the values that the state wants them to have we keep harping on this one because it's so important in the field of warfare we all know the importance of seizing the high ground but what about the human terrain clearly the world elites have identified your children as key terrain and they are doing everything they can to take them from you on an ideological and sometimes physical level this was a huge realization for me personally over the past year or so looking back over the years it's not really that hard to see how things work when it comes to most federal agencies especially when it comes to who they persecute but what has been quite surprising is the level at which parents have been persecuted at school board meetings that hammer coming down with such ferocity has been crazy i don't think i've seen the us government be so dedicated to anything else in recent years with the exception of the medical tyranny of course but man watching federal agencies go crazy over this and persecute parents this much is suspicious like why is the fbi using the patriot act against this particular target they could have gone after anybody else like the pro second amendment lobby or the pro-trump crowd or the anti-biden crowd why go after this target so hard the fbi pulling out all the stops and publicly using every asset at their disposal to target parents at school board meetings is very suspicious why do federal agencies care so much well because they realize that if we take back our children from the control and or influence of the state we will have the upper hand when those children grow up but again there was a pattern to this remember how many children informed on their parents to the fbi that they were at the rally on january 6 children even young children turning against their parents should have been a wake-up call as to the brainwashing for lack of a better term that is occurring in public schools and unfortunately there is no reason to believe that this brainwashing will not continue into the future now i know what a lot of you are thinking this is a garbage solution this is a big decision and it is really difficult to take your kids out of school not because it's particularly hard to teach children but because a lot of times both parents or caretakers have to work full-time jobs just to pay the rent and single parents are infinitely challenged in the same way as well so deciding to take your kids out of school is not a decision that is quick or easy this is a long-term strategic decision however if you want our recommendation here it is if you are on the fence or even remotely have the capability to take your kids out of public school i would seriously recommend it at this point of course decisions must be balanced and if a child is better off in the care of the state than with their parents nothing is more unfortunate but that's the way it is in a lot of cases however i would argue that at this point there are very very few children in the entire country that are benefiting from their public school education and most of those benefits are not related to education if nothing else recognizing this keeps us honest we can point the finger at everyone else but if we put our own kids in situations that we woul
S2 briefing · 2021-04-10

Pattern of Life: An Introduction

…certify that we picked me up Avicii levels per room is a waste of because your skin Sweet Heart and forgiving underwrites as ever had Used for endless winycam our world record and the spinal cord…