The Wire - March 31, 2026

//The Wire//2300Z March 31, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: STARLINK SATELLITE EXPERIENCES "ANOMALY" IN ORBIT. FPV DRONE ATTACKS REPORTED AT RUSSIAN BASE IN MALI. WAR IN MIDDLE EAST INTENSIFIES WITH INCREASE OF AMERICAN BOMBING AND IRANIAN DRONE ATTACKS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: Several escalations occurred overnight, with substantial strikes being reported throughout the region. Satellite imagery indicates that the strikes within Iran have increased in scope, though most of the targeting efforts remain concentrated in the western part of the country. Last night American forces struck an ammo dump in Isfahan, which resulted in significant secondary explosions at the site. This strike supplements many other strikes throughout the area, which have destroyed most of the military infrastructure throughout Isfahan. In the Persian Gulf itself, Iranian targeting of merchant vessels continued overnight, as two ships reported being targeted. The M/T *AL SALMI* was struck by an Iranian drone, sustaining damage from the subsequent fire that broke out on board after the strike. Another unidentified vessel reported a close-call, with an unidentified munition landing in the water close to the vessel. Pacific: Yesterday the Marshall Islands declared a state of emergency for at least the next 90 days, due to fuel shortages caused by the reduction of petroleum production in the Middle East and with travel through the Strait of Hormuz being restricted. President Heine signed the declaration yesterday, and various committees have been formed to determine what steps to take as the war continues. Mali: This morning a local insurgent group posted a video claiming credit for a drone attack on a military outpost in the remote town of Anefis. The Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) is a small insurgent group that has been waging war in the region for a while, with combat operations intensifying over the past few weeks. Analyst Comment: While a couple of FPV drone strikes are mostly insignificant on the battlefield, this does indicate that even in the most far-flung regions of the earth, drone warfare is becoming a concern that even large nationstates continue to struggle with. For instance, the site struck by FLA yesterday was also allegedly being used by Russian advisors, and this is the second instance in about a week of FLA militants using munitions attached to FPV drones to carry out attacks. -HomeFront- USA: Starlink announced a malfunction with one of their satellites, with the satellite experiencing some level of breakup in orbit. Satellite imagery from a craft with a higher orbit captured the satellite in orbit, which indicates it's still mostly intact even though hundreds of particles have been detected separating from this platform. The cause of the malfunction has not yet been disclosed, with this incident only being described as an "anomaly". -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Indications and warnings are growing that the intensification of the war in Iran might be what is colloquially known in the targeting world as Shaping Fires, in other words blowing up a lot of stuff in preparation for a future objective. Since the start of the war, the United States has been working through a High Payoff Target List (HPTL), which is basically a list of targets arranged by which ones should be struck first. In an air war, the targets at the top of the list are usually missile defense sites, radar arrays, or any other targets which might be more important to take out first. As time goes on, eventually lower-priority targets can be struck. However, in going through this process, the world eventually finds out what targets were on that list. And right now, a month after the war began, the targets that are being struck are probably an indicator of what is being planned for. As an example, the US completely leveled the entire headquarters for the 33rd and the 44th Artillery Groups, which included dozens of impact craters being observed on satellite imagery in the boneyard of old artillery pieces that have been in this same location since the Iran-Iraq War. These field artillery units, while certainly valid military targets in a declared state of Armed Conflict, aren't exactly a high priority for meeting the strategic objectives conveyed by the White House. These artillery pieces, however, would have been of great use for defending against forces on the ground. As at least one Brigade Combat Team (BCT) from the 82nd Airborne arrives in CENTCOM to supplement the two MEU's already on station, many are speculating on the potential for a US ground invasion of Iran. This is debatable to the point that many people believe such a possibility is unthinkable, and the rhetoric of the war winding down any day now has been a constant factor for consideration. However, this rhetoric is not reflected by the raw information available at the present moment concerning the situation on the ground. Operations so far indicate that if a ground invasion were on the menu, the targets that are being struck right now are the exact sites that would need to be struck for any ground combat element to have any chance of success at all. Nevertheless, aside from the forward deployment of troops to the region, many more boxes must be checked before any ground operation would be feasible. MMost military doctrine dictates that at "the defensive form of warfare is stronger than the offense" (Clausewitz), which makes the task ahead much more difficult since the most effective way to conduct littoral operations in a contested environment is to effectively disrupt the enemy's kill-chain (i.e. their own manner of identifying and prosecuting their own targets) BEFORE operations are conducted within the enemy's weapons engagement zone (WEZ). Conducting operations within the WEZ is an expectation of the Marine forces currently deployed, as this mission set is their bread and butter. However, at this point, that kill-chain has not been disrupted to a sufficient degree, and Iranian forces routinely conduct over-the-horizon targeting capability. So in short, it may be some time before even the most basic ground operation will be feasible under current military doctrine. However, the textbook can always be disregarded at any point, and decision-makers are going to do whatever they so choose. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT// Bibliography, Sources, and Research - Jerusalem: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/israel/israeli-police-block-catholic-figures-palm-sunday-mass-jerusalem-holy-rcna265669 Christian Church vandalism: https://qns.com/2026/03/hate-crime-vandalism-churches-long-island-city-far-rockaway/ Marshall Islands: https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/591020/iran-war-marshall-islands-declares-90-day-economic-emergency-over-fuel-crisis Mali 1: https://x.com/ashrafnsier/status/2038928844762026309 Mali 2: https://x.com/Wamaps_news/status/2038950745093898368 Mali 3: https://x.com/FLAZAWAD/status/2036719538323017750 Al Salmi: https://x.com/EGYOSINT/status/2038906178403484079 Starlink: https://spacenews.com/second-starlink-satellite-suffers-anomaly-generating-debris/ UAE 1: https://x.com/modgovae/status/2038941095166677297 EABO Manual: https://www.marines.mil/Portals/1/Docs/230509-Tentative-Manual-For-Expeditionary-Advanced-Base-Operations-2nd-Edition.pdf?ver=05KvG8wWlhI7uE0amD5uYg%3d%3d Obsidian Internal Links: [[The Wire - March 1, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 2, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 3, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 4, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 5, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 6, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 9, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 10, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 11, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 12, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 13, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 16, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 17, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 18, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 19, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 20, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 23, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 24, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 25, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 26, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 27, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 30, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 31, 2026]] Tags: #Iran #GulfWar