Intel Update — April 19 — Kinetic Activities

Hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground. This is the intel update for April 13th through the 19th of 2025. So let's get right to it. Starting off here at home, the trade war between the United States and China has remained fairly kinetic over the past few weeks. Even though it's more or less been removed from the news cycle, the global trade tariffs that were announced and abruptly delayed for for a few weeks are still a factor. However, it's more of a back burner issue at the moment. So, as something to not forget about because when these tariffs do come into fruition for some nations at least, we're probably going to see another bout of instability in the markets. Right about now, the economic situation can mostly be summed up as the rules are made up and the points don't matter. However, when it comes to the United States and China, this is something that is is taking more of a military/strategic tone rather than something that's just purely economic. It's become painly obvious right now that the United States and China are sort of slugging it out on the economic front as a means to a military end rather than being just solely about profits and tariffs. So that sort of shifts the game a little bit. It's not really about fairness or anything like that. It's more along the lines of just international flexing which makes a lot of the developments a little bit harder to understand or it really just makes it so that economists are a little bit more inaccurate than normal because they're looking at the situation through purely an economic lens whereas in actuality this is more of a blend of economics and also military strategy. So this is why the situation remains tenuous and we're just going to have to keep an eye on it. Similarly in Ukraine the situation remains much as before. Negotiations are continuing to take place. Early this morning when I was finishing up the slides for today, I didn't see reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that an Easter ceasefire will take place along all of the fronts in Ukraine. So, I haven't been able to verify that at the present moment, but hopefully that will come into fruition and be a good uh a good development towards uh getting this conflict wrapped up. So, in the Middle East, things are still rather kinetic depending on where you're at. In Syria, there is a possible drawdown going on of American forces who are shutting down a few uh smaller bases and consolidating at some of the larger ones. Hard to say what's going on with any certainty as the Pentagon has not commented on this yet, but there's a lot of movement taking place in Syria right now. So, likewise in Yemen, the bombing campaigns have continued to intensify and have grown in scope pretty much every day over the past few weeks. Again, I'll expand in greater depth in a moment, but for right now, it appears that a lot of the B2s, or at least some of them that are stationed at Diego Garcia that we've been kind of keeping a sharp eye on for the past few weeks, are probably conducting some bombings in Yemen. There are a lot of rumors surrounding the intensification of the conflict in Yemen and also the diplomatic talks with the Iranians. So, right now, it's still very much up in the air how the future of the Middle East is going to look in a few weeks. So, that's the wave top level of what's going on around the world. Let's look at strategic movement for a moment. Again, things are very much the same as before. It is not quite to the level of nothing significant to report as there are very significant actions taking place. Both the Truman CSG and the Carl Vincson carrier strike group are conducting largecale bombing campaigns in Yemen. Both of them appear to be taking part in this for now. And in the Pacific, the Nimitz was also seen in Port Guam. I don't know if she's still there or not, but she was seen entering Guam a couple of days ago. So things are remaining as active as before. Moving to the kinetic activities tracker for this week. I know many of you might not be aware of a sort of side project I'm working on that's rapidly becoming a gargantuan effort. This is a mapping project that I am working on that is supposed to help add a little bit more data context to a lot of the incidents and things that we're tracking around the world so that other people can use the data however they wish. So I had previously called this the domestic terrorism tracker, but in order to have a little bit more uh leeway in what I can put on the chart and put on the map here, I'm just going to call the kinetic activities tracker for now. And you can see based on the legend the kind of things that I'm putting on here. I've got multiple data sets that I'm loading in. And if you go to the SIP cop map, the common intelligence picture that I have created, of course, links below in all of my videos, you can see these different layers and and turn things on and off as you please. Uh I have loaded in this kinetic activities tracker three times. You can just do this with filters, but it's a little bit harder for the lay person to do with just their phone. So I've just turned on uh different layers. So, so I've loaded it in as three separate layers. I may change that in time, but for now, this is what I've got. This is the total database. This is everything that I've put on the map since January of this year. And these are all the kinetic activities that have taken place over the past 30 days. And this is the past 7 days. So, it's been fairly kinetic. Of course, this is not just a general crime tracker. Otherwise, I would have tens of thousands of, you know, points and icons on the map. This is more along the lines of just high-profile incidents and things that I think can be used to help make a decision if you live in some of these areas. So, a lot of the time I'll find or many of you will find and send to me really concerning situations, incidents, attacks, whatever. But it doesn't make the mainstream media. It doesn't make social media either sometimes. So, I figured there's really no one big database of things like terror attacks, very gruesome uh attacks or things that are a little bit more concerning than just your average street crime. Right? If I were to put like muggings on this uh map here, it would there would be tens of thousands. But really, I'm focused on things that are going to help people make a decision about how uh societal changes are taking place in their area. So, check it out if it's useful. I don't know. I don't get any analytics on this. I can only see how many people view the map. So, I don't actually know if this is helpful for anyone at all, but I'm doing it anyway. And uh you'll see why uh next week. This is not the final project. I have something that I'll be releasing in a few days that might uh help populate this map quite a bit faster. So, let's move on to the actual regions themselves. And let's start with the Northeast region. In Pennsylvania, as many of you know, last weekend, right after this briefing came out, an arson attack was conducted at the Pennsylvania Governor's Mansion in Harrisburg. This was a fairly significant attack. details are hard to verify and there's a little bit of contradiction in the story. However, the general gist of what happened is this is this man Cody Balmer hopped a fence at the mansion and was able to run up to one of the windows at the governor's mansion and the state police that were you know providing security for the governor's mansion before they were able to respond and and actually locate him and find him. He had broken a window and he had made entry to one of the rooms in the mansion and immediately started lighting and throwing Molotov cocktails everywhere. So, this was a very rapid pace sort of situation. It occurred in just a few minutes time, but it was a rather kinetic event. And considering the fact that the asalent here, he brought a hammer to smash the glass windows. He deliberately chose a spot on the back side of the house to cross the fence. He had pre uh pre-made Molotov cocktails. Like, this was definitely a premeditated thing. However, when we dig into the story of who this guy is and why he would have done something like this, that's when we start to get a little bit unclear. I did a little bit of a deep dive on this guy. So, like a mediumbth dive, and I have not been able to figure out exactly what this guy's deal is other than the fact that he looks like just the average skitso. He's got messages uh on social media accounts attributed to him that are anti-Biden, but also anti-Trump. So, I don't know. It doesn't seem like this is more of a political thing other than just this guy had a personal grievance with the governor, which seems to be fairly decently confirmable at this moment. So, I know the media will try to spin this uh any number of different ways, but I mean, look at him. I mean, you can kind of look at these mug shots and and see this guy's not wrapped too tight. So, either way, sometimes you just got to call it like you see it. And yeah, I don't I don't know. My guess is the investigation is probably not going to turn up much more than it already has. But you'll probably see a lot more security at some of the uh governor's mansions throughout the Northeast because I mean there's a lot of people that want to break a lot of things nowadays and it's not entirely clear as to what their motives are most of the time. Seems like they have every possible motive in the books. So similar situation down in the west central Midwest out of Wisconsin. Don't normally get these stories out of Wisconsin which is why I thought this was very interesting. But this story, which has been utterly buried by the media, occurred actually a couple of months ago, back on February 28th, possibly. It's hard to determine, but this was the incident that appeared to be just a standard gruesome murder, but this individual, Nikita Cassup, murdered his parents in their home uh just outside of Milwaukee. Now, that's where the investigation stood for a while. Murders are tragically common in the United States, but recently the feds have unsealed a search warrant that was related to this particular murder investigation. And it turns out that the story has a little bit more than meets the eye. This does not appear to be your average psycho. There's a little bit more deliberation here. This person didn't murder their parents. This is fairly open and shut. It's quite clearcut as to what happened there. However, the reason why was concealed for a while. And it turns out that this person murdered his parents so he could steal their money and used that money to fund an assassination attempt of President Trump. Or at least that's what the FBI says. Again, it always must be noted that whatever whenever the FBI claims something, you've got to cross-examine this because just be just taking the FBI at their word is not really a good idea. But I did find this to be rather interesting because this individual essentially this dude's got ties to neo-Nazi groups in Ukraine. So, this is a little bit more than just your standard gruesome murder here. This this may be a little bit more organized than we might think. So, I'm sorry I don't have that many more details on this. I just thought I would bring it to your attention for anyone interested in investigating this a little bit further. But, yeah, very, very interesting case out of uh Wisconsin. Moving down to the Southwest, it has been a rather rough week for Texas. So uh as many of you know the Carmelo Anthony trial situation is getting rapidly out of hand and it is getting very very hard to talk about because we are seeing elements of the South Africanization of the United States taking place with this sort of thing. So again there are two counterprotests that are scheduled for roughly the same area in Frisco today actually. So as I'm recording this this should be fairly kinetic or not. Who knows? uh by the time this video comes out. So, we'll know either way. But I can't imagine a more high-risk situation uh personally. But either way, there have been open calls for genocide uh from this situation. And anytime we start getting into the realm of normalizing calls for genocide and especi, you know, open calls for murder and violence on social media from not just one or two accounts, but we're talking tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of social media accounts. This is this is not particularly good. Now, a lot of people are saying this is intentionally being amplified and this is intentionally intent intended to stoke hatred. I I don't necess I mean that may be true. I don't necessarily know. All I know is that it seems to be like there are a lot of genuine feelings that are not really being stoked so much as having, you know, been there the entire time that are really just coming out in the open now. So, again, the situation is a very hot topic. It's going to be a very very contentious topic for a while, but I would argue from my tiny wheelhouse that there's really not much use in protesting when the people you're trying to protest are calling for open genocide. At that point, once you've reached that level of South Africanization where you may have a peaceful issue on either side and the other side wants, you know, straight up murder and, you know, mass genocide, that's not really something that is going to be solved with a protest in my opinion. But hopefully the situation calms down. Uh it would be really great if we could not have another busy summer like in years past, but I'm keeping an eye out just in case either way. So, not super great. Another situation which has uh really become kind of a problem is there was a school shooting in Texas and not very many people seem to have noticed. This individual Tracy Dinard Haynes Jr. attempted to kill four to five people at his school by opening fire on a crowd uh earlier this week. And I say that with fairly high confidence because this individual posted a confession video uh on social media. One of the more interesting parts of this case is that the the Dallas Police Department and school officials even having this uh evidence and knowing that this person got away from the situation. So, you have a school shooter, made entry to the school, shot four or five people, it's hard to say how many people were injured or wounded. That distinction is not quite clear, but this dude shoots up a school egresses from the area. He's a fugitive. He's on the lamb. The authorities know exactly who he is because witnesses identified him and he posted this video confessing to the crime and the surveillance footage makes it abundantly clear that this person was the guy who did it. They covered it up. They did not release his identity. They did not tell his description or anything. So, they had an active fugitive for a couple of days. And this dude, I mean, can can you I just I just I'm sorry. I just can't wrap my mind around how this can be such a thing in the United States at this point. We've seen this in Europe where, you know, the police put out an APB for somebody, you know, they put out a bolo and they put a mug shot, they give a mug shot to the news media and then they blur the photo. Like, we've seen that in Europe, but now in Texas of all places. Maybe that should be a clue there, I guess. But, it's very interesting that this person's identity was concealed by the police until after he had eventually turned himself in. So, there are some investigative reasons for this. I want to stress that rather abundantly. However, if you've got a school shooting that takes place, you know who did it. you know, he's on the lamb and you know that he may uh commit further crimes to me. I don't know, maybe it's just my opinion, but it seems like that was probably a very bad judgment call to keep this guy's identity a secret. But anyway, I don't want to drag this one out too much. This one just kind of got to me this week, especially in the context of the school shooting in Florida, which I know I don't have a specific slide on. More to come on that on Monday. I'm still doing a little bit more research and digging a little bit more into that one. But yeah, we've got multiple school shootings going on around the country this week. It's already becoming a very kinetic, very hot summer. You can already see when these types of things spike. It's very indicative of national atmospherics. So, yeah, I don't know. Just something to be mindful of that you may have a school shooting and the local police department may conceal the identity of the shooter even though they know that the shooter is on the lamb and is a fugitive. Anyway, moving out west, sort of in a similar vein, situation out of Colorado a few days ago. I didn't see very many reports on this, but I thought this was rather interesting. and arms shipment was uh intercepted on the highway in Canyon City. Middle of nowhere traffic stop. I'm not sure the circumstances of the traffic stop. It could have just been random or it could have been a license plate that was flagged. Who knows? During the traffic stop, two illegals who were of questionable immigration status. I'll get to that in a moment. They were caught with a lot of ammunition. And we're not we're not just talking a brief range trip here. Now, they had almost 200,000 rounds of of small arms. So mostly 38 rounds and 762 by I'm assuming 39 rounds. So that's a little bit of an important context there. That's that's a lot of ammunition being moved around. Now, of course, like I wrote in the wire, that's not illegal. It's not illegal to roll around with, you know, almost 200,000 rounds of small arms in your in your trunk. However, it is illegal if you are illegal. So, these two individuals were uh admitted to the United States on uh under President Biden's uh catch and releaselease program. It's questionable as to h what reason they were actually in the United States for over the past few years. I don't know if it's specifically a Biden thing or if this actually goes back to Trump's first term. I'm not entirely certain on that. Either way, whatever their immigration status is, it's quite clear they were not allowed to handle this handle ammunition and small arms and things like that. So, I know it's probably rather contentious to make this assessment, but when I see, you know, a couple of Mexican nationals who are here questionably legally and they're rolling around with almost a quarter of a million small arms rounds in a van, I don't tend to think to a advocate. I tend to think cartel. So, I know very very hot topic these days, but I did want to mention it because cartel operations are still going on. The border may be more or less quote unquote sealed. That itself is very debatable, but even if the border is sealed, it doesn't mean the cartel just goes away. And right now, there are an awful lot of turf wars going on down south of the south of the border that have already made their way north of the border. So, some of these groups, especially groups like TDA, have decided to make a make a standing fight in a lot of areas, especially when it comes to counter immigration and deportation operations and things like that. They're not just going to, you know, roll over and and kind of weather the storm. Some of the bigger cartels might. and they may try to do that, but for right now, we're also seeing some of these smaller low-level groups, you know, they're arming and and they're definitely preparing. So, something to keep in mind, especially considering that things like this don't get very much news coverage. But that's really all I have for the United States today. Let's move over to Diego Garcia again, just as a brief correction from last time. I'm sorry I wasted so much of your time uh last weekend because I was not only wrong once, but I was wrong twice. So, the vessel that I thought this uh vessel was at Diego Garcia is not the one that I said it was. It's very clearly not a submarine tender. I have received better images since then, and I'm still working on measuring them because I've got a little bit more metadata to work with. I was fairly confident based on my measurements that this was a submarine tender, but it is very clearly not. So, my working theory at the moment, I may be wrong three times in a row, who knows? But my working theory at the moment is that this is the USNS second lieutenant John P. Bobo which is again a an auxiliary cargo ship. It's uh fairly regularly stationed here at Diego Garcia. So for all of you who do not care about the little minute details about this stuff, I don't blame you. The overall bottom line last I suppose kind of general synopsis here is that this isn't anything out of the ordinary. So the shipping to Diego Garcia as far as dry goods and cargo has been fairly standard apparently. However, the tanker's new uh the Senate imperative, that's a new development, which kind of makes sense for the B2s that are stationed there. So, again, sorry I wasted so much of your time last week, but I did want to make that correction uh rather than just kind of throw it all to the wind. See, that's the problem with doing things in kind of video format. Sometimes once it's uploaded and out to the internet, you can't really take it back. I mean, I can take the video down. However, do I really want to take down a video that's got 80% important information because 20% of it's wrong? I mean, I don't know. I'm sure many of you would would disagree, but either way, I thought I would issue the correction today and uh we'll just kind of keep an eye on the island. And keeping an eye on the island, I have been doing there really haven't been that many satellite passes. I expended my self-imposed imagery budget for this month. So, we're just going to have to make do with the free imagery. And as we can see, it's it's more or less nothing significant to report. The six B2s are still there. The six strat tankers are still there. So, they're still running operations out of Diego Garcia. Some are probably in Yemen, others I don't think so. So, what do I mean by that? Well, let's let's go to the Middle East here and let's uh kind of talk about what's going on in the region generally speaking. So, overall, however, the situation in the Middle East is moving. Uh it it may seem that there's not very much going on, but I assure you there is a lot going on. Not a lot that's publicly viewable or really publicly confirmable, I'll say, but there are a lot of rumors flying. So, I will share the unconfirmed, extremely celebrity gossip level rumors in hopes of maybe getting to the truth at some point. Unfortunately, we're very strapped for information. So, we've got to got to go on these very Real Housewives of the White House kind of approaches to things sometimes and the rumors that have been circulating are very serious. So, what do I mean by that? Well, generally speaking, the rumor this week has been that there's largely a lot of infighting in the White House and that there are certain factions in the White House that shut down war with Iran essentially. So, so the rumor this week so far is that President Trump had indeed decided to go to war with Iran. Like it was all set and done, especially with Netanyahu's visit couple last week, couple weeks ago. Like it was all, you know, signed seal delivered kind of thing. And that's why the B2s were sent to Diego Garcia. The United States had already decided to go to war like I had theorized. The decision had already been made. However, essentially the rumor is that White House chief of staff Susie Wilds, SECF Pete Hegth, and uh the vice president uh JD Vance essentially talked him out of it and put to bed a lot of the military options that were already decided on for Iran. So again, it's rumor. I don't know how true it is. I mean, the Trump White House seems to be leaking just as much as the Biden White House. So, it there's probably a lot of credence there, but from my wheelhouse, I can very strongly assess that at least this time 2 weeks ago, the Pentagon had made the decision to go to war with Iran. Like, we saw every single mobilization indicator and we still continue to see some of these indicators today. Now, these rumors being circulated could also be a ruse, especially in the context of moving troops in and around Syria. I mean, I don't know. The the situation in Syria has ebbed and flowed over the years. There have been combat operating posts uh set up and taken down. You know, there have been bases spring up and then disappear. So, it's kind of ebbed and flowed over the years, but right now it seems to be ebbing at least in some parts. So, we're seeing a lot of bases being shut down or presence reduced at. It's like a quiet draw down. Now, why would you want to do that? What are the reasons for that? I mean, you can say, "All right, cool. We're drawing down." But why? Well, there's two radically different theories that I can think of off the top of my head. There are uh many other theories, but two main ones that I can think of, and they could not be any more different. The first theory is that, well, we're drawing down because we don't want war with Iran and we just don't care about the Middle East anymore. So, we're getting out of Syria because why bother? Why leave a thousand people on the ground there when it doesn't matter anymore? So, just leave the Middle East to itself. That's theory one. Theory too is that we're reducing our presence at bases which are very vulnerable to an Iranian counterattack when we bomb their nuclear sites. You know, do you see how different of a theory, you know, different theories these possibly could be? You know, one says, hey, you know, we're backing away. We're stepping away from war. We don't care. We're leaving the the sandbox alone for once. And the other theory is we're strategically repositioning our troops so that when we do launch a war, it will be less detrimental to us. Right now, I don't have any evidence either way. Uh, it's purely just on what you think is the most likely situation. So, what we do know is that 6B2s are at Diego Garcia. They would be great for use in Iran. Uh, but it seems right now that they've probably been shifted to Yemen or they're just sit they're just sitting there parked. They may be redlined. I don't know. I mean, they may just be not functional anymore. They may just, you know, be struggling with maintenance. I know that it's a very very very expensive show of force to just keep these B2s parked on that parking apron there. It's got to be tens of thousands of dollars a day or maybe even an hour just to leave them sitting there with the engines off, you know, just from a maintenance perspective alone. It is a nightmare for logistics. They're pressing these airframes to the limit. Uh just getting there, you know, and so this forward deployment is not for nothing. And like I said last week, this is not the kind of thing you're going to be using in Yemen. I mean, the Saudis have been using F-22s, I think, uh, for many, many years. They've been bombing Yemen for 15 years rather successfully with increasingly larger bombs. I say successfully, it hasn't really done anything to be honest because it turns out the United States may be working through the same logic that they went through in every conflict from Vietnam to the counter ISIS conflict, which is that you can only drop so many bombs from the air on people in the desert before it stops being productive anymore. So, I don't know. Like I remarked a few weeks ago, like look, if they're deploying B2s to strike targets in Yemen, and they are not doing so for training purposes, and they're not doing so as really more of a slight to Iran, and if they're not doing so because it's more of a kind of a switcheroo, like trying to make the world think that the B2s are for Yemen, but they're really for Iran. If they're not trying to do any of that and they're they're legitimately deploying B2s to strike targets in Yemen, that goes against pretty much all military doctrine that I know. I mean, granted, I'm just some random guy on the internet here. I don't work in the Pentagon, you know, so I'm not making decisions on any of this stuff, but to me, it doesn't really make a whole lot of sense to use uh this particular cannon on this particular mosquito unless that cannon is actually for a different target like Iran. So, I don't know. Take your pick. Either the situation is deescalating or it is entering into its final stages of escalation and we're just working through a bunch of ruses and military deception campaigns, ambiguity, uh decreasing operations, things like that. You know, take your pick. At this point, that's all I got for you really. So, maybe we'll get some more information this next week. I don't know. We'll have to see, I guess. But, let's wrap up today with the intercepted ghost net reports. And this week, it has been a fantastic week for the ghost net stuff. So, propagation was really good this week. Um, for those of you who are not radio nerds, that just means that the radio signals are flying through the upper atmosphere really good this week. You're able to get a really good range. So, I was picking up people all over the United States just from my small little setup here. A lot of people were also sending news reports from their local areas. So, we've got a lot of uh people who are are taking interest in this now, which is great. Sometime some weeks it's not it's not so so much, but this week was really really good. a lot of diverse reports, a lot of very interesting things. And uh I know that I haven't talked about the ghost net in a while, but I will be talking about it again soon because I have other developments that I'm working on to kind of tie a lot of this stuff together. But again, more on that next week. It takes time. Remember, I'm only one person doing all of this. So things take a lot more time than um I personally would like it to sometimes. But either way, that's pretty much all I have for today. Uh here are the sources as usual. You can, of course, get all the links and clickable links from my Obsidian page. Links are pretty much posted anywhere. So, if you want something to click and read, I've got you covered. So, that's pretty much all I have for today. Thank you guys all for watching. Thank you for all of your support. I really do mean that. And I hope that all of you have a great and happy Easter. Sometimes with all of the bad things that are going on around the world, it's good to take some time and really reflect on the things that actually do matter. So, hope that all of you are able to do so this weekend and we can begin a new next week. So, even though it's become kind of an unwitting catchphrase at this point, I suppose it would be more accurately today to fight in the light, for indeed Christ is risen. So either way, I will keep all of you in my thoughts and prayers as usual, and I will see you next