Intel Update - June 13 - The Boiling Frog

Hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground. This is the Until Update for June 7th through the 13th, 2026. The spicy summer continues on and things are moving very quickly once again this week. So, let's get right to it. Here at home, the situation remains much the same this week with the impact of the Carmelo Anthony trial not being taken super well and the resulting cascading effects of the verdict really enlightening a lot of people as to the level of hatred that is present throughout the situation. Like it or not, uh there is a lot of social tension that has been building for uh decades at this point. And as a result, the random stabbings and attacks that are taking place in Europe are also taking place here at home for much the same reasons. Speaking of our friends across the pond, this week all eyes have been focused on the rapidly deteriorating situation in Northern Ireland as mass unrest has broken out throughout Belfast after the attempted beheading of a man by a Sudin national earlier this week. The subsequent riots have continued since that night and after a few days of Irishmen burning down migrant housing projects. The migrant populations throughout the United Kingdom at large are making moves of their own with resistance beginning to build. On the ground in Northern Ireland, the Irish are engaging in what has been coined uh Belfast evictions which in this case has mostly taken the form of migrant run or inhabited HMOs or houses of multiple occupancy being targeted which are being used by NOS's to house immigrants. Once again, the mapping situation here might be a little bit uh confusing to kind of understand, but when you look at the UK proper, you see a bunch of red diamonds. Well, most of these uh points are migrant housing projects. It just depends on where you're at. The ownership might be a little bit different. For instance, in the Republic of Ireland, all of the places down south and ROI proper, these are IPAs centers. And looking at the map, you might be a little bit misled by thinking, "Oh, well, there's there's fewer in Northern Ireland. Uh there's not as much migrant uh situation going on up there." Well, no. It's just that there's no database for me to pull from. Uh because these are again mostly like nested within NOS's and places that are really hard to find. So again, from my perspective, this is an intelligence gap. I'm working on it. Uh but rest assured, uh the local Irish know exactly where these places are located, and for the most part, the ethnic Irish in Northern Ireland and the ethnic British in Northern Ireland, they've pretty much had enough on both sides. and various paramilitary groups throughout the city are continuing to display their effectiveness in carrying out operations. Once again, Northern Ireland, very tenuous region on a regular Tuesday. Firebombings are kind of like their national sport there. So, it was no surprise that conflict kicked off in Belfast, especially with the brutality of the video that was circulating the internet earlier this week. So far, from what I can tell in terms of who's actually carrying out these operations, it's not as organized as you might think. It's I would say it's more coordinated. Coordinated, but not like top down organized by like a hierarchy. So there's no like one group who's claiming to command all of these paramilitaries. There's no like rigid structure. A lot of it is just Irishmen doing what they know how to do best. Now again, as far as the factions that are engaging in this, well, it's hard to figure out who they actually are because pretty much everybody is wearing black block clothing. Again, all black clothing, black balaclavas, sweatshirts, pants, all that kind of stuff. So over here in the United States, that generally means Antifa. In this case in Northern Ireland, it does not mean that. Uh, so when you're looking at the videos as an American, do not think that these are Antifa. No, sir Reeba. These are definitely not Antifa. There are random Antifa throughout Northern Ireland and the ROI proper and also in England, the UK. They're hugely pro-immigrant uh for obvious reasons, right? So Antifa throughout Northern Ireland have been completely vanished from the streets uh once the other two factions got involved. From my own research, much of the unrest has come from the olster loyalist side of uh the cities, these districts which have historically been more Protestant. But I will also say that there are Catholic nationalist neighborhoods where there are a lot of HMOs being targeted and burned down, you know, firebombed, right? So both sides are engaging in, I guess, what we should probably classify as ironically, you know, like separate but equal firebombings. They're just handling it in their own neighborhoods uh to avoid, you know, historic clashes and things like that. It's not as serious as it used to be back in the day in some areas, but in some areas it is. And it would be very very optimistic to say that the Protestants and Catholics in Northern Ireland have put aside their differences over this issue. That is very clearly not happened. Uh but a little bit of neutrality is definitely present throughout the city right now regarding the migrant issue because this is less about factions and more about the whole of the population wanting these people out of their country. So the obvious statement that must be made, right, is that the longer this goes on, the higher chance there is for collateral damage. Of course, of course, of course. It goes without saying that generally speaking, riots and unrest are not really good for stability and uh innocent people tend to get harmed in some way regardless. So that's always a concern. Fire is a very dangerous weapon and it should be treated as such most certainly and you can't really predict what's going on here. Now again, I would say that the rioters have most certainly not engaged in what I would call completely random violence. They are using violence. Absolutely, for sure. But it's targeted. For instance, you haven't heard of anybody stabbed to death over this yet, have you? And and to be honest, I'm quite surprised about that. I'm I'm surprised there have not been um people disappear uh over this because things in Belfast, well, they're uh they're pretty hot right now. So anyway, that has not happened yet. Things may get ugly. It may get a lot more ugly. It probably will get a lot more ugly. And also, the longer this goes on, the higher chance there is for migrant factions to start fighting back. So, these migrant hotels, they are protected structures, right? They've got police guarding them, so they can do whatever they want to on the inside. And uh yeah, if the migrants ever decide to organize themselves, then there might be a little bit of a situation. So, right now, most of the violence is is one-sided. I'm trying to map it out as best I can. it's pretty hard to do so because most of the uh rioters have basically forbade any sort of media coverage of their actions. So opssek is very very much in play in Belfast on both the Protestant and Catholic side. So again, I don't need to tell the Europeans this, but for the Americans, if you want to learn how to run an intelligence operation in your community, these guys know how to do it. Now you may not agree with their means, their measures or anything like that, but again from an academic perspective, Northern Ireland is one of the top probably five histories of the world to study to understand how things can develop uh over time. So again, I'll just leave it at that. This is Northern Ireland is of course a bigger issue than I can mention in just one day. But yeah, very very tenuous time and it serves again as a good framework for the United States and what might happen here. Maybe not in terms of the rioting but also what happened before it. Right? Again, many people are looking at the TV. They're seeing buses and trains on fire. And what they're not seeing is all of the stuff that goes on behind the scenes when it comes to community awareness, community activism, all of the peaceful things that they tried before this. And then the incident that was the straw that broke the camel's back. Well, they were already set up to do this long ago. So again, you may not agree with their methods, but this is a very, very important academic subject to study, and we're watching history play out in real time. That is for sure. Same story across the sea up in Scotland. Adding to the public anger this week has been the complete vindication of the Dundyax girl up in Scotland, which has come about following the conviction of two Bulgarians who were at the center of the scandal last year. For those that don't remember the case, the general recap is uh this was a viral video that appears to show a very young girl threatening the person taking the video with a hatchet and a very large knife, telling them to uh leave her alone. And when this video hit the timeline, a lot of people demonized the girl, saying that she was some kind of hoodlm or gang member or something like that. It may be strange for uh an American audience to uh make that conclusion. Uh I think many of us looked at that video from an American perspective and said, "Well, of course, the person taking the video is the the one that we should be looking into here." Most people throughout Scotland also thought the same thing, but there was also a lot of people who essentially said these girls were in the wrong. And this was not made any better by police Scotland targeting these girls quite heavily. Uh up until it became quite clear as to what actually happened. So, as it turned out, the person taking the video claiming to be the victim was actually the aggressor. These two individuals were convicted of targeting the girls. And just like it was stated in the video, the younger girl was actually beaten and assaulted by the Bellof siblings here. So, what actually happened in this case? Well, it turns out these two were probably trying to snatch a child. And they were so confident in the two-tier policing model that when they failed, they called the police themselves and claimed racism. These individuals knew based on instinct alone that if they attempted to commit a crime, and in this case, they failed. The kids defended themselves with weapons. Uh they could always call the police and their wouldbe victim would be the one who gets in trouble. Does that sound familiar? It certainly should because that's exactly what happened in the Noak murder case down in Southampton down in the south of England. So again, not super great. Scotland's got their own version of Henry Noak. Again, these girls thankfully uh survive the encounter. They're probably going to catch weapons charges if they have not done so already. I think that was actually initially reported, but I don't know the status of it because again, they're juveniles. So these records are it's not as hard and fast as like a criminal adult record. So again hopefully uh these girls are treated like the heroes that they are uh because these two people were up to no good. Also the other side of the coin that makes this especially worse especially in the United Kingdom is the fact that these two are of Romani ethnic descent which is making the entire situation worse. This is because the Roma people uh originally a nomadic ethnic tribe or clan from northern India which kind of scattered throughout Europe in the 9th century I believe. Uh anyway, this group of people, the Roma people, they're often referred to somewhat disparagingly, as in nearly always disparagingly, as gypsies. And they're generally not looked upon too favorably by most Europeans due to there being a long history of tension there. So, so just for we Americans, there's a lot more going on under the hood culturally with this one. And in this case, it's not exactly making those sentiments against, you know, gypsies in Europe any better. So, police Scotland also immediately siding with them instead of the Scottish girls has also not gone unnoticed. This being the default reaction is troubling beyond measure. And this is one of a thousand similar cases such as again the Henry Noak murder which has caused concern throughout the continent. So, both of these cases highlight the seriousness of the two-tier policing model and also how it is routinely used by migrants to target locals because they know that in every single police encounter that there is on the street, they're going to side with the migrants. They just know this. As if this was not enough, yesterday evening, another gruesome stabbing was conducted. This time down south in England. A foreign man with a knife walked up behind a young white girl and stabbed her in the neck in Burnley, just uh north of Manchester. And in this case, the video was also immediately leaked. So, the asalent has not been identified by name just yet, but this attack has the potential to stoke the English up once again. Probably not to the level of Northern Ireland, but we have multiple different attacks which are in the minds of the British right now. Protests are still going on regarding the Henry Noak murder. They're still holding demonstrations and memorials for him and uh the anniversary of the Southport massacre is actually coming up at the end of next month. So again, there's a lot of these issues that are fresh in in in the British mind. So, Western Europe has had a rather busy week. The knife attack in Belfast has resulted in large-scale demonstrations and riots. In Scotland, the vindication of the Dundyax girl has confirmed how slanted police Scotland is on an institutional level. and the knife attacks on innocent and unsuspecting people has led to most ethnic Europeans looking over their shoulder a bit more deliberately in public this week. So that's what we've got going on in Western Europe for now. Hope you guys brought your stab vests. Keep your head on a swivel and stay frosty. Meanwhile, things in the Middle East are not going much better despite the claims of imminent peace allegedly being right around the corner. So, let's have a brief recap of what's taking place on the battlefield this week. Last weekend, the war flared up again with dozens of ballistic missiles and drones being exchanged between Iran, the United States, Israel, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait. So far, every day this week, one of these uh parties has struck something. So, the United States has hit everything from the South Pars gas field to a dozen different military targets up and down the Iranian coastline, mostly centering around the major port of Bandar Abbas in the straight of Hormuz. But there have been reports of strikes in Thran. I just I just don't know what's actually been hit yet. I don't have a lot of fidelity on exactly what has been targeted just yet because I'm waiting on better satellite imagery which has not arrived yet. But based on the United States claiming to use at least 49 tomahawk missiles. The attacks at the beginning of the week were by no means small engagements. Just for a bit of context, the US has used about 850 tomahawk missiles so far during this war. So the use of about 50 on Sunday or Monday night was no small feat. On the rhetorical front, there has been a whole lot of talk this week. And in timehonored tradition, at this point, nearly all of it turned out to be a load of malarkey. One of the biggest and very dubious claims that has been made is the alleged secret operation to smuggle 100 million barrels of oil out of the Persian Gulf. This allegedly took place since last month, but this figure possibly is a total of the past 3 months. It's hard to say. This all stems from President Trump revealing the operation during an Oval Office interview and also a post which confirmed it on truth social. This operation which has not the name of which has not been released is alleged to have used secret means to sneak or smuggle ships through the straight of Hormuz without the Iranians knowing about it. No further details have been provided on this and that's the entire story as it's been disclosed and confirmed by the White House. Now then there are obviously many problems with this story. For one, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense just logically because 100 million barrels of oil, that sounds like an awful lot, doesn't it? But it's actually only about 5 days worth of pre-war traffic. So, if we just take the story at face value, as the White House has authorized us to believe, the United States is using two aircraft carrier strike groups, one amphibious ready group, and the 82nd Airborne, which is still on station, and flying comet air patrols, all to just get 5 days worth of oil over a period of 1 to 3 months. So again, it's not really a question of can it be done. It's a question of can you do it at scale and what is the cost of doing so. Well, in this case, we know the cost. We can tell the cost is two aircraft carriers, one ARG, five or six other special forces platforms, a good chunk of the 82nd Airborne, and that's the price for getting 5 days worth of oil. So logically, it's not a super great position to be in. Certainly nothing worth bragging about, that's for sure. But there's another series of problems as well. The math isn't mathing. We can actually see which ships transit the straight even with their transponders turned off. For those who are unaware, some of the largest corporations and well-funded organizations in the world are in the maritime shipping community. Corporate espionage and intelligence collection is big business. And some of these companies are investing a staggering amount of money to track their own ships, but also those of competitors. If you have ever tried to get an enterprise level license for a website like Marine Traffic, you know how much money is in this ecosystem. In fact, there is so much vested interest in tracking the world of shipping that many firms don't even rely on AIS tracking. They're using synthetic aperture radar or SAR sensors on satellites to visually confirm marine traffic. What this means is that the world can see where ships are located even with their transponders turned off. Once again, the military situation is not as simple as simply a ship turning off their transponder and being invisible. It is simply impossible to hide in this region. And over the past three and a half to four months of the war, there have been about five to six days all total where there is no SAR coverage of the region. Throughout this entire war in the Persian Gulf at least, we've gotten really good coverage of uh synthetic aperture radar sensors over where the ships are located. And once again, the math isn't mathing. The people who have the access to these very expensive images have stated that they are not seeing any unaccounted for traffic. So basically they're saying that or there's the implication that this 100 million barrels of oil is just completely made up like it never happened at all. Now I personally cannot verify this myself because each one of these satellite images, believe it or not, each one of these images costs about $5 to $8,000 a piece and they take images several times a day. So we have to kind of go on somebody else's word. Again, I don't like doing that, but I'm kind of having to tap into what's already been done by others here. And in this case, a lot of these people who are in this maritime shipping community are saying that it's just not adding up. 100 million barrels of oil unaccounted for. For one, it's got to go somewhere. So, who is reporting getting a 100 million barrels of oil out of the Persian Gulf over a period of 1 to 3 months? We don't really know the time period. So, let's just say a month. 100 million barrels in an oil of oil in a month. Well, that's going to be reflected somewhere. It's not like they just left the Persian Gulf and just vanished, right? It had to go somewhere. So, where did it go? It's kind of hard to verify that 100 million barrel thing because one or two ships is absolutely possible. Maybe even a dozen ships shuttling back and forth short distances or even traveling at flank speed to squeeze in between these satellite passes. Sure thing. Like abs. I'm not saying that's not possible. I I think that the US has probably snuck out quite a bit of oil out of the Middle East. But what does that term quite a bit mean? Is this one super tanker a week or are we talking 10 super tankers an hour? We just need to know, right? It takes more than 24 hours to transit the straight for many of these larger vessels. So the length of time that it takes generally means that we're going to see them on each satellite pass. But again, giving the White House as much credence as possible, even though they probably don't deserve it, right at this point, it's theoretically possible that smaller, faster boats could be blockade running to some degree. The issue here is once again scale. We should be seeing thousands of transits over a period of weeks to make up that 100 million barrel figure, and we're just not seeing it. So, what is actually going on? Is this just completely fabricated from the ground up to calm the markets and make uh a lot of people uh very very rich in the stock market? I don't know. Uh but I can speculate. And I speculate that the US is using two or three ships as temporary shuttles. And I think what they're doing is they make runs each night through the straight eastbound out of the Gulf with incredibly heavy top cover in the form of Apache gunships, drones, F-16s, F-18s, surface drones, submarines, whatever. uh they're guided through the minefield and once they make it out through the toughest part once they get into the Gulf of Oman they conduct shipto- ship transfers. Tanker Trackers has seen this already a couple of uh couple of times over the past few months and it doesn't take a genius to see what they're doing here. They're moving oil from one ship to another in a place where it's not normally conducted which means that that ship which is offloading is probably going to go right back through the straight. Right? This is not really a secret operation, which is probably why the White House felt comfortable in leaking it because you can't hide a tanker. Like, you're going to have to see it somewhere. Anyway, they don't go too far. So, they just blip in and out of the straight. Uh because the Iranians are tracking these ships, at least with whatever radar they have. And of course, they have the corporate options as well, just like the rest of us do. So to the Iranians, it looks like normal regional traffic, but in reality, it's a grand shell game of moving crude from ship to ship to ship to ship so as to conceal the fact that oil is actually making its way out eventually through all these different shell uh transfers. This has been long suspected since the war began. And honestly, I just kind of I put it in the back of my mind. I thought it was just an a general baseline expectation for what the US is doing because it would make sense for the United States to try every single trick in the book to get as much oil out as possible. The problem is once again scale. It is simply not possible to take up the slack this way. So there's always going to be a deficit. In addition to the sneakery that has been confirmed to be used so far by the president himself saying this is what's been going on. I also think that something else has been going on too. I suspect that that 100 million barrel figure comes from other ways as well. I think that it's a total and I don't think they want people to know where it came from. I personally think again this is speculation just based off of a gut feeling here. I think that the US has been secretly paying the Iranian toll to get some ships out. Certainly not in all cases. Uh but I think that since there has been uh deception confirmed throughout this entire affair, it would be foolish to think that the US would not also play a bit of a shell game with the Iranians to get some oil out via third party nation states. So what the Iranians think is a tanker of oil going to Singapore. Actually, it just meets up somewhere else and transfers that oil over and that oil comes to the United States. But again, the problem of scale is the indisputable figure here. So, let's quickly just uh break out the calculator and hopefully not get kicked out of the history museum and run through the numbers. Before the war, about 20 million barrels transited the straight every day outbound. The Saudi East West pipeline can make up about 7 million barrels per day. So, that brings us down to a deficit of 13 million barrels per day. The Immiradi pipeline to Fuja can do about a million barrels. So, we're down to about 12 million. The US uh is also draining the strategic petroleum reserve at an increasing rate. So all total over a period of three months or so that might be maybe a million uh barrels per day spread out. It's hard to say. Plus this whole arrangement since gas has gotten quite expensive. This becomes kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy to some degree because prices get high and many Americans can't travel during the peak travel season. So demand is sharply reduced which might be another million or two barrels per day that is not needed. And the Chinese have reduced their demand to an unknown amount, too. So, all in all, the deficit that exists has been reduced. So, we're not really talking about a deficit of 20 million barrels. We're talking about a deficit of, I don't know, maybe 4 to 8 million barrels of oil per day. There are people who can calculate this, but one uh wrench I can throw into the engine is that this is an unknown factor because some of these pipeline sources have been shut down for a considerable amount of time. For example, the Saudi East West pipeline, which carries that that coveted 7 million barrels of oil per day. Well, guess what? It's been hit several times. It was targeted by Iran during the early days of the war. And it was only about a month after the conflict went into effect that it was actually started producing that 7 million barrels of oil per day. So, the Saudis rushed that pipeline into operational status. So, it hasn't been doing 7 million barrels since the war began. And of course, that adds into the deficit. So that's why you can't really calculate these things. Same thing with the Emirati pipeline to Fjyra. Fjyra oil industry city has been hit like a dozen times so far. And you can't really tell me that that's not going to cause some issues, right? If you're looking at an oil tank burning in Fujiro, well, I don't think we're going to be exporting that oil if it's on fire. So generally speaking, it's really hard to calculate these sorts of things. Nobody really knows the true number of what is the deficit, which really just compounds the whole problem with the war, doesn't it? No belligerent is interested in telling the truth regarding the war, which is understandable to some degree. Like opsec military operations totally understand that. You may disagree with it in many cases. That's fine. But you have to understand that that's kind of the way that it works in warfare sometimes. I'm not expecting the Pentagon to be completely and totally honest about, you know, a shootown incident or some kind of targeting effort that was successful. That's fine. What what really is kind of grinding gears here is that they're lying about things that we can easily tell that they're lying about. In the short term, uh, this is really just kind of the state of things. I guess it doesn't really matter if you're not telling the truth anymore in the short term. I would still argue though, in the long term, however, this cannot be the way things remain forever. This will become even more paramount as the talk of a potential ground operation has returned. Uh, so that's still on the menu. Yesterday, uh, President Trump directly stated that the United States will seize Car Island soon. Now, many people, I would think probably most people at this point think that this is probably just a negotiating tactic. It could be uh this could be interpreted as, you know, its face value as the truth or it could be a flatout lie for negotiating purposes or it could be intentional misdirection for any number of reasons. Maybe he's trying to get the Iranians to think that we're going to take Car Island and really we're going to hit him somewhere else. I don't know. Uh either way, I do know that the pundits that are in the president's circle have been begging for a ground invasion for weeks, and it has almost come to fruition a couple of times so far. So, as discussed ad nauseium for months, Car Island would be one of the worst possible places to conduct an amphibious operation. But the warfare manuals have long been thrown out the window so far during this conflict. So, there's no real telling what might happen. So, at the end of week 15 of this war, uh, we're not really any closer to the situation being resolved, which should come at no surprise despite all of the rhetoric that's been flying around. Hopefully, some sort of progress is made tomorrow, as has been claimed, but we'll just have to wait and see. The possibilities are quite literally equal in opposites, right? Either we're going to start bombing again tomorrow, or we're actually going to have a document signed and start moving towards uh the road to peace. It could go either way, and it's mostly 50/50 at this point. So, we're just going to have to wait and see and hope that everything works out for the better. So, thankfully that's all I have for today. So, let's go ahead and finish up with the Ghostnet reports for this week. Once again, a good time to engage in a little bit of off-grid information sharing around the world. This week, a lot of you took to the airwaves to share local reports, do a bit of testing, and really keep those skills sharp by using our radio tools to make sure that no matter what happens, large scale communications networks can still be relied upon to keep us all informed of what's going on around us. Oh, and before I forget, since we are talking the world of radio, I do have a brief announcement to make. I will be having an interview next month with a fellow YouTuber, the tech prepper. I know that many of us are in the same spaces, so of course he needs no introduction, but he runs a shortwave listening program every month over on WBCQ, a shortwave broadcast station. So, this is pretty exciting because it's not going to be a standard podcast sort of thing. As I understand it, it's broadcast only. So if you want to tune in to listen, you will either need a web SDR or a shortwave listening radio to hear it, which is pretty cool, I think. So definitely motivation to work through getting on board with listenonly shortwave radio. And I will have more details on it once we get a little bit closer to it, but I just want to give you the early uh early warning, right, that uh this is something to look forward to uh for the end of next month. So more to come on that later on. Otherwise, I have been experimenting with a few different improvements to the process over the past few months. And I think that right now a lot of very exciting things are being worked on in the world of radio. So, I hope to revamp the Ghost Net plan sometime later this year. But TBD on that. We'll see how it works out. For now, we can keep trucking along and doing what we can to stay ready for the interesting times ahead and the interesting times that seem to already be upon us in some ways. So, that's all I have for today. Thank you again to all of the supporters on Patreon which help keep the project going. I could not do it without all of you. And thanks again to everyone for sticking with me while we all try to figure out how the changing world is going to affect us all. We're all trying to do the best we can and that's all we can do. So, let's keep at it, keep moving forward, and I'll see you next time. And as always, fight in the shade.