The Wire - February 19, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z February 19, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WAR EXPANDS IN THE CONGO. TENSIONS BUILD BETWEEN THE US AND UKRAINE FOLLOWING ZELENSKY BEING SIDE-LINED DURING PEACE TALKS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): The advance by M23 rebels in the eastern districts of the country has continued, with the rebels capturing the city of Bukavu yesterday. Separately, in the northeastern region of Bunia, Uganda launched an invasion of their own, deploying special forces soldiers throughout the region. AC: The flimsy attempt to conceal the M23 "rebels" as an independent group has largely fallen away, as the military uniforms that the "rebels" are now wearing more or less confirm that these forces are in fact mercenaries slow-walking a Rwandan invasion of the DRC. Uganda now wanting a piece of the action is very likely to escalate the situation further, and probably marks a new era of the decades-long conflict. Europe: Tensions remain elevated between the United States and Ukraine, with Ukrainian leader Zelensky expressing a variety of hostile sentiments towards the United States for himself not being invited to the peace talks conference currently underway in Saudi Arabia. -HomeFront- USA: The arrival of winter weather conditions throughout much of the central and eastern parts of the nation has caused significant travel delays. Many airlines have issued ground stops for much of the central United States due to poor weather conditions. In Kentucky, the casualty figure has risen to 14x fatalities resulting from the recent flooding disasters throughout much of the state. Arizona: This morning an aircraft collision was reported at the Marana Regional Airport, which resulted in the destruction of two small planes. Two fatalities were reported as a result of the collision. AC: As the focus remains on aviation mishaps nationwide, it will be up to the individual to conduct their own analysis to determine if these events are happening more often, or if the increased media coverage is skewing the overall risk assessment. Washington D.C. - Various Presidential actions continue, with a handful of cartels being formally designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) this afternoon. AC: This decision was made weeks ago, and already in practice as evidenced by the significant intelligence collection efforts recently undertaken by the United States in Mexico. As the formalization of this decision is solidified in policy, the ball is now in the court of the various cartels to determine what their reaction will be. On the diplomatic front, relations between the United States and Russia have improved significantly over the past few days, at the expense of rapidly deteriorating relations with Ukraine and most of Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced an official restoration of diplomatic relations between the United States and Russia, as part of ongoing conversations pertaining to peace talks. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As has long been theorized since the start of the war (and as the conflict in Ukraine draws to a close), a lot of things are going to happen in very rapid succession. Perhaps most frustratingly, a lot of things are going to happen that may seem to be nonsensical to some. This is due to the rabid censorship efforts over the past few years that have painted a specific picture...the vast majority of those in the west have largely been looking at the war through a lens that is completely one-sided. This is nothing new, however, reality is often a great equalizer in the realm of information warfare...at a certain point all of the propaganda and gaslighting falls away to reveal the reality of the situation. In the case of Ukraine, there are many people who likely still believe everything they have heard about the war, the motivations for the conflict beginning, and so on. As such, when the lies are increasingly more and more detached from the truth, the more damage is done; the bigger the lies are, the harder they fall. Over the next few weeks, the American taxpayer is going to learn a lot of inconvenient truths, and as a result may feel a level of betrayal as the situation does not turn out the way that it has been portrayed for years. More specifically, harsh statements will very likely continue to be traded between the United States and Ukraine as it becomes more clear that ever since the West became involved in the conflict Ukraine has had very little agency or leeway to decide their own fate. Ukrainian leaders may even seek to bite the hand that feeds them, as that hand starts feeding them less. Likewise, many European nations which have been involved in the war will probably continue to express hostile sentiment toward the United States (as Germany already has), for a variety of reasons: some probably justifiable, some not so much. Either way, the rapid pivot away from the policy of the past four years is likely to cause issues domestically among Americans who have differing (and often combative) opinions on the war. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground //END REPORT// Bibliography, Sources, and Research - DRC Conflict, Bukavu Captured: https://x.com/htTweets/status/1891543228505076170 Uganda Invades DRC: https://margheritanews.ug/2025/02/updf-special-forces-enter-bunia-as-gen-muhoozi-delivers-on-his-promise/ Kentucky Casualty Figures: https://www.kentucky.com/news/weather-news/article300505034.html Toronto Plane Crash Details: https://www.foxnews.com/world/delta-crash-reported-canadas-toronto-pearson-airport-crews-responding-upside-down Detroit flooding: https://x.com/craigsgoji/status/1892256188290523583 Cartels in Sonora: https://x.com/All_Source_News/status/1891988092686410193 Putin statement on improving relations: https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1892220741623382277 Arizona plane crash: https://www.kgun9.com/news/community-inspired-journalism/marana/marana-regional-airport-confirms-crash-wednesday-morning D.C. Blackhawk crash data: https://x.com/ProjectConstitu/status/1891989872975724590 Zelensky concerns: https://x.com/Newsweek/status/1892189345945149943 Saudi peace talks: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-russian-officials-propose-peace-plan-lay-groundwork-cooperation-riyadh Obsidian Internal Links: [[The Wire - February 3, 2025]] [[The Wire - February 4, 2025]] [[The Wire - February 5, 2025]] [[The Wire - February 6, 2025]] [[The Wire - February 7, 2025]] [[The Wire - February 11, 2025]] [[The Wire - February 12, 2025]] [[The Wire - February 13, 2025]] [[The Wire - February 14, 2025]] [[The Wire - February 18, 2025]] [[The Wire - February 19, 2025]] [[The Wire - February 20, 2025]] [[The Wire - February 21, 2025]] [[The Wire - February 24, 2025]] [[The Wire - February 25, 2025]] [[The Wire - February 26, 2025]] [[The Wire - February 27, 2025]] [[The Wire - February 19, 2025]] Tags: #Ukraine #Russia