ATP 2-33.4, page 12

Chapter 1 The Complexity of the Intelligence Task From 2003 to 2007 intelligence personnel supporting brigade combat team operations in Ninewa Province, Iraq, had to provide commanders with intelligence assessments for an area over 60,000 square kilometers influenced by three regional powers, 3 internal governorates, 14 urban centers, and a population of over 4 million people comprised of 4 major ethnic groups and 24 individual tribes. In addition to these factors, the area of operations was also affected by an externally supported insurgency comprised of over 5 separate major insurgent groups subdivided into over 70 separate operational cells. Additionally, all indigenous governmental, civil, and security organizations had been infiltrated by threat groups. Essential services were in disarray and security was a constant problem. The attitude of the population toward U.S. forces was mixed and heavily influenced by insurgent organizations. Unit boundaries were porous and not defendable. The complexity of the situation forced intelligence personnel to continually reassess what they thought they knew and continually revise the intelligence estimate in support of operations. 1-4. The goal of analysis is to provide the best possible intelligence, in a timely manner, to commanders and leaders in order to support their decisionmaking. Analysts must gear their efforts to the time available. Employing proven analytical techniques and having a high level of understanding of their area of operations (AO) are a key component in overcoming denial and deception. Operational planning and execution impose time constraints that must be considered. This may require assessments to be provided without all the information analysts would like to form their conclusions but timely enough to affect operations. Analysts should keep in mind that logical conclusions are not necessarily truth. When presenting conclusions, intelligence personnel should state the degree of confidence they have in their conclusions and any significant issues with the analysis. This confidence level is based normally on the capability of the collection asset, evaluative criteria, the confidence in the collected data, and expertise and experience of the analyst. 1-5. The conclusions reached during intelligence analysis should also adhere to the analytic standards established by the Director of National Intelligence in Intelligence Community Directive Number 203 published 21 June 2007. This directive establishes the analytic standards that govern the production and evaluation of national intelligence analysis to meet the highest standards of integrity and rigorous analytic thinking. These standards act as guidelines and goals for analysts and managers throughout the intelligence community who strive for excellence in their analytic work practices and products. Although created for national-level intelligence agencies, these standards are valid at the operational and tactical level as well. The following list identifies these standards. Intelligence analysis should be— @ Objective. © Timely. @ Based on all available sources of intelligence. e Exhibit proper standards of analytic tradecraft. © Properly describe quality and reliability of underlying sources. e@ Properly caveat and express uncertainties or confidence in analytical judgments. e Properly distinguish between underlying factual intelligence and the assumptions and judgments used to form a conclusion. e@ Consider and explain alternative hypotheses. e Relevant, providing information and insight on issues important to the intended consumer and/or provide useful context, warning, or opportunity analysis. e Facilitate clear understanding on the information and reasoning underlying analytic judgments (logical argumentation). e Consistent with previous production on the topic or, if the key analytic message has changed, highlight the change and explain its rationale and implications. e Accurate. Intelligence personnel should apply expertise and logic to make the most accurate judgments and assessments possible given available information and known information gaps. 1-2 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 Chapter 1 1-2 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 The Complexity of the Intelligence Task From 2003 to 2007 intelligence personnel supporting brigade combat team operations in Ninewa Province, Iraq, had to provide commanders with intelligence assessments for an area over 60,000 square kilometers influenced by three regional powers, 3 internal governorates, 14 urban centers, and a population of over 4 million people comprised of 4 major ethnic groups and 24 individual tribes. In addition to these factors, the area of operations was also affected by an externally supported insurgency comprised of over 5 separate major insurgent groups subdivided into over 70 separate operational cells. Additionally, all indigenous governmental, civil, and security organizations had been infiltrated by threat groups. Essential services were in disarray and security was a constant problem. The attitude of the population toward U.S. forces was mixed and heavily influenced by insurgent organizations. Unit boundaries were porous and not defendable. The complexity of the situation forced intelligence personnel to continually reassess what they thought they knew and continually revise the intelligence estimate in support of operations. 1-4. The goal of analysis is to provide the best possible intelligence, in a timely manner, to commanders and leaders in order to support their decisionmaking. Analysts must gear their efforts to the time available. Employing proven analytical techniques and having a high level of understanding of their area of operations (AO) are a key component in overcoming denial and deception. Operational planning and execution impose time constraints that must be considered. This may require assessments to be provided without all the information analysts would like to form their conclusions but timely enough to affect operations. Analysts should keep in mind that logical conclusions are not necessarily truth. When presenting conclusions, intelligence personnel should state the degree of confidence they have in their conclusions and any significant issues with the analysis. This confidence level is based normally on the capability of the collection asset, evaluative criteria, the confidence in the collected data, and expertise and experience of the analyst. 1-5. The conclusions reached during intelligence analysis should also adhere to the analytic standards established by the Director of National Intelligence in Intelligence Community Directive Number 203 published 21 June 2007. This directive establishes the analytic standards that govern the production and evaluation of national intelligence analysis to meet the highest standards of integrity and rigorous analytic thinking. These standards act as guidelines and goals for analysts and managers throughout the intelligence community who strive for excellence in their analytic work practices and products. Although created for national-level intelligence agencies, these standards are valid at the operational and tactical level as well. The following list identifies these standards. Intelligence analysis should be—  Objective.  Timely.  Based on all available sources of intelligence.  Exhibit proper standards of analytic tradecraft.  Properly describe quality and reliability of underlying sources.  Properly caveat and express uncertainties or confidence in analytical judgments.  Properly distinguish between underlying factual intelligence and the assumptions and judgments used to form a conclusion.  Consider and explain alternative hypotheses.  Relevant, providing information and insight on issues important to the intended consumer and/or provide useful context, warning, or opportunity analysis.  Facilitate clear understanding on the information and reasoning underlying analytic judgments (logical argumentation).  Consistent with previous production on the topic or, if the key analytic message has changed, highlight the change and explain its rationale and implications.  Accurate. Intelligence personnel should apply expertise and logic to make the most accurate judgments and assessments possible given available information and known information gaps.