ATP 2-33.4, page 36

Chapter 3 3-24. The following can assist when using an threat intentions matrix: e@ Use the weighted ranking technique for more detailed insight if time allows. e@ Color-code your entries using red for those from the adversarial point of view and blue for those from the analyst’s point of view. EVENT MAPPING 3-25. Event mapping uses a brainstorming diagram to represent the scenarios in hypotheses linked around a central word or short phrase representing the issue or problem to be analyzed. 3-26. Use this technique when a nonlinear method is desired to generate, visualize, structure, and delineate the events in a scenario or hypotheses related to the intelligence issue or problem. The addition of colors can represent key players in each scenario, such as economics, military, opposition group, science, and culture, as well as internal and external political pressures. It is also easy to annotate indicators of change to use in the formation of collection plans. Facts 3-27. The diagram with connections between events in a scenario on a radial diagram encourages a brainstorming approach to the event mapping. The large amount of association in event maps promotes creativity in generating new ideas and associations not previously considered. The elements are arranged intuitively according to the importance of the concepts and are organized into groups, branches, or areas. The uniform graphic formulation of the semantic structure of information on the method of gathering knowledge may aid recall of existing memories. An analyst can mitigate some bias as scenario event hypotheses are mapped in radials around the issue or problem without the implied prioritization that comes from hierarchy or sequential arrangements, anchoring, and other cognitive bias. 3-28. Unconstrained event mapping can become overly detailed, lose focus, and include events and scenarios that lack relevance to the issue or problem being studied. Figure 3-3 shows a simple example of event mapping. Brakired Ss it overthrown Military considered “neutral” Mubarak An orders welcotied Publicized troops in by people ‘on social Police sles considered hostile” ‘Anti- Democratic goverment elections protests in Egypt Military finder atiack\__( overtengin council by Muslim ‘of militar formed grothernoog/ \ council ue New Military government ‘sworn in, dictatorship Mubarak over ony Mubarak steps down in Mubarak trial begins ‘rial Figure 3-3. Example of event mapping 3-6 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 Chapter 3 3-6 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 3-24. The following can assist when using an threat intentions matrix:  Use the weighted ranking technique for more detailed insight if time allows.  Color-code your entries using red for those from the adversarial point of view and blue for those from the analyst’s point of view. EVENT MAPPING 3-25. Event mapping uses a brainstorming diagram to represent the scenarios in hypotheses linked around a central word or short phrase representing the issue or problem to be analyzed. 3-26. Use this technique when a nonlinear method is desired to generate, visualize, structure, and delineate the events in a scenario or hypotheses related to the intelligence issue or problem. The addition of colors can represent key players in each scenario, such as economics, military, opposition group, science, and culture, as well as internal and external political pressures. It is also easy to annotate indicators of change to use in the formation of collection plans. FACTS 3-27. The diagram with connections between events in a scenario on a radial diagram encourages a brainstorming approach to the event mapping. The large amount of association in event maps promotes creativity in generating new ideas and associations not previously considered. The elements are arranged intuitively according to the importance of the concepts and are organized into groups, branches, or areas. The uniform graphic formulation of the semantic structure of information on the method of gathering knowledge may aid recall of existing memories. An analyst can mitigate some bias as scenario event hypotheses are mapped in radials around the issue or problem without the implied prioritization that comes from hierarchy or sequential arrangements, anchoring, and other cognitive bias. 3-28. Unconstrained event mapping can become overly detailed, lose focus, and include events and scenarios that lack relevance to the issue or problem being studied. Figure 3-3 shows a simple example of event mapping. Figure 3-3. Example of event mapping