ATP 2-33.4, page 38

Chapter 3 Facts 3-33. Use an event tree to clarify alternative event sequences with potential future or at least unknown outcomes related to an intelligence problem. Event trees work best when there are multiple, mutually exclusive options that cover the spectrum of reasonable alternatives available. 3-34. An event tree is a visual tool by which analysts can depict a threat’s options with decision points that gives insight into potential vulnerabilities. It clarifies the presumed sequence of events or decisions between an initiating event and a final outcome. Event trees also provide an excellent method of determining collection requirements for the indications that a decision has been made or events have unfolded in one of the alternative limbs of the tree. Figure 3-4 is an example of an event tree. Mubarak New resigns, Mubarak Satisfied government leaving cronies goverment citizenry in control formed Military Military control called in Ga ivi ‘Continued Police pul down protests Civil Military wor or tenes | | amy ‘supports lgovernment| mz government! protests in [ Haraine | lilitary Protesters} Eoynt Hardine Miltary government loppressed coup Mubarak Civil stays elections (Government! Civil war Opposition Some wins reforms. Military Military Civil elections Figure 3-4. Event tree example THE METHOD 3-35. The following are steps for this technique: e@ Step 1. Identify the mutually exclusive and complete set of possibilities that pertain to a given intelligence issue. @ Step 2. Decide which events, factors, or decisions (for example, variables) will have the greatest influence on the alternatives or possibilities identified in step 1. e@ Step 3. Decide on the sequencing in which these factors are expected to occur or impact one another. e@ Step 4. Determine the event options within each alternative and establish clear definitions for each event option to ensure collection strategies to monitor events are effective. e Step 5. Construct the event tree from left to right. Each alternative is a separate main branch. Start with the first alternative and have one branch from this node for each realistic path the first event can take. For instance, the purchased equipment could be used for its intended purpose, or it could be reverse-engineered for duplication, or it could be disassembled and sold for scrap. 3-8 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 Chapter 3 3-8 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 FACTS 3-33. Use an event tree to clarify alternative event sequences with potential future or at least unknown outcomes related to an intelligence problem. Event trees work best when there are multiple, mutually exclusive options that cover the spectrum of reasonable alternatives available. 3-34. An event tree is a visual tool by which analysts can depict a threat’s options with decision points that gives insight into potential vulnerabilities. It clarifies the presumed sequence of events or decisions between an initiating event and a final outcome. Event trees also provide an excellent method of determining collection requirements for the indications that a decision has been made or events have unfolded in one of the alternative limbs of the tree. Figure 3-4 is an example of an event tree. Figure 3-4. Event tree example THE METHOD 3-35. The following are steps for this technique:  Step 1. Identify the mutually exclusive and complete set of possibilities that pertain to a given intelligence issue.  Step 2. Decide which events, factors, or decisions (for example, variables) will have the greatest influence on the alternatives or possibilities identified in step 1.  Step 3. Decide on the sequencing in which these factors are expected to occur or impact one another.  Step 4. Determine the event options within each alternative and establish clear definitions for each event option to ensure collection strategies to monitor events are effective.  Step 5. Construct the event tree from left to right. Each alternative is a separate main branch. Start with the first alternative and have one branch from this node for each realistic path the first event can take. For instance, the purchased equipment could be used for its intended purpose, or it could be reverse-engineered for duplication, or it could be disassembled and sold for scrap.