ATP 2-33.4, page 39

Basic Structured Analytic Techniques Proceed down each event option node until the end state for that sub-branch is reached. Then move to the next alternative and repeat the process. e@ Step 6. Determine what would indicate a decision has been made at each decision point for each option to use in generating an integrated collection plan. e@ Step 7. Assess the implications or after effects of each alternative on the intelligence problem. 3-36. The following can assist when using an event tree: e@ Use this technique in conjunction with weighted ranking, hypothesis review techniques, and subjective probability to gain added insights. e Leverage the expertise of a group of analysts during the construction of an event tree to ensure all important events, factors, and decision options are considered. SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY 3-37. Subjective probability is a quantitative expression of an analyst’s degree of belief in the truth of a statement relative to all other alternative possibilities. It may be text or graphic. Figure 3-5 shows an. example of subjective probability using an event tree. Satisfied Military 20% Giizenry 30% (| government Mubarak New Military resigns, Mubarak BO%F| control 60% leaving cronies} —] government} 60% Military: Cw in control formed sated 70%! eicctions [Continued 80% protests Police put] 40%! 9, Civil Millit Anti- lgovernment} lgovernment| 25% Hardline Military Egypt I lgovernment| 70%! oppressed 40%! Civil 1% Goverment Lai wins Civil Some oO ith ws ws Military me Miltary w Civil ms Figure 3-5. Subjective probability example Facts 3-38. Subjective probabilities are used to quantitatively express an analyst’s overall degree of belief in the truth of a statement where the total belief held by an analyst is allocated among the other possibilities in proportion to how likely each answer or event is correct. Subjective probability analysis is useful in comparing the perceived likelihood of hypotheses, supporting event tree or matrix analysis by providing quantitative estimates for each event, and quantitatively evaluating the value of additional information in shaping the conclusions of an analysis. 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 3-9 Basic Structured Analytic Techniques 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 3-9 Proceed down each event option node until the end state for that sub-branch is reached. Then move to the next alternative and repeat the process.  Step 6. Determine what would indicate a decision has been made at each decision point for each option to use in generating an integrated collection plan.  Step 7. Assess the implications or after effects of each alternative on the intelligence problem. 3-36. The following can assist when using an event tree:  Use this technique in conjunction with weighted ranking, hypothesis review techniques, and subjective probability to gain added insights.  Leverage the expertise of a group of analysts during the construction of an event tree to ensure all important events, factors, and decision options are considered. SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY 3-37. Subjective probability is a quantitative expression of an analyst’s degree of belief in the truth of a statement relative to all other alternative possibilities. It may be text or graphic. Figure 3-5 shows an example of subjective probability using an event tree. Figure 3-5. Subjective probability example FACTS 3-38. Subjective probabilities are used to quantitatively express an analyst’s overall degree of belief in the truth of a statement where the total belief held by an analyst is allocated among the other possibilities in proportion to how likely each answer or event is correct. Subjective probability analysis is useful in comparing the perceived likelihood of hypotheses, supporting event tree or matrix analysis by providing quantitative estimates for each event, and quantitatively evaluating the value of additional information in shaping the conclusions of an analysis.