ATP 2-33.4, page 52

Chapter 4 4-8 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 program. Fiscal resources can support the analyst’s theory of a country’s commitment, intent, or ability to commit to a military action. Fiscal independence also adds credence to a country’s verbal threats and political and economic influence. Other Resources 4-50. If a country commits a scarce resource to support a military action, it may indicate the country’s intent to project a false commitment to achieve a military solution while attempting to force another country to seek a peaceful solution (which usually involves forcing the other country to make some concessions). A country that has scarce resources may place such a high value on the resources that it may not use them unless it is forced. Countries with a scarce resource (technology, military equipment, military experts) may be willing to employ a resource they have in abundance (military personnel, training areas, raw minerals) to acquire more of the scarce resources. These types of indicators should be analyzed to correctly answer commander’s critical information requirements and PIRs and to help facilitate situational understanding for the commander. 4-51. If a threat element makes a preparation that is not reversible by inexpensive and efficient means, it may be unintentionally signaling intent. If an artillery brigade dumps more ammunition at its gun locations than it has the organic transport to carry in one lift, then there is a problem if the unit moves. This may indicate that the unit does not anticipate moving with the ammunition, which could mean it plans to fire the ammunition or leave it in place. Step 3: Analyze Indicators 4-52. Analysis of indicators requires a number of actions. All-source intelligence analysts—  Examine collected information and intelligence.  Ensure any information pertaining to indicators has footnotes that include details of the event.  Look for the development of patterns. All-source intelligence analysts notice one set of indicators is satisfied, and identify if another is not.  Watch closely to detect deception operations.  Recheck the validity of the indicators and verify the staff did not miss any relevant information. If the indicators are valid, analysts report the findings. The commander needs to know whether the threat is conducting an actual combat operation or a deception operation.  Look for indicators based on the principle of mass. The enemy can be expected to conduct deception operations. However, deception operations are normally conducted as inexpensively as possible, attempting to deceive us with the least expenditure of resources. Indicators based on a major confirmed commitment of forces are most likely to reflect the true situation. Step 4: Use Indicators 4-53. Indicators provide an objective baseline for tracking events, instilling rigor in the analytic process, and enhancing the credibility of the final product. Descriptive indicators are best used to help the analyst assess whether there are sufficient grounds to believe that a specific action is taking place. They provide analysts with a systematic way to validate a hypothesis or help substantiate an emerging viewpoint. 4-54. A classic application of indicators is to seek early warning of an enemy attack or a nuclear test by a foreign country. Indicators are often paired with scenarios to identify which of several possible scenarios are developing. They can also be used to measure change such a political instability or a humanitarian crisis. 4-55. Defining explicit criteria for tracking and judging the course of events makes the analytic process more visible and available for scrutiny by others, thus enhancing the credibility of analytic judgments. Including an indicators list in the finished analytical product helps decisionmakers track future developments and build a more concrete case for the analytic conclusions. 4-56. The indicator list becomes the basis for directing collection efforts and for routing relevant information to all interested parties. It can also serve as the basis for the analyst’s filing system to track these indicators.