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Military manual ATP 2-33.4 Page 58 of 146 text: pdf

ATP 2-33.4, page 58

Intelligence Analysis

Army Techniques Publication: Intelligence Analysis

2014 public edition (Archive.org)

Page 58 of ATP 2-33.4
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Chapter 5 5-4 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 overprotective about their ideas and do not accept the ideas of others. Fearful people are reticent and evasive, only presenting safe ideas. COMPARISON 5-13. Comparison is used to understand current events by comparing them with historical precedents in the same country or with similar events in other countries. It differs from applying theory in that conclusions are drawn from a small number of cases, whereas applying theory is generated from examining a large number of cases. This approach is useful when faced with ambiguous situations because it looks at how the country handled similar situations in the past or how similar countries handled similar situations. 5-14. Comparison analysis helps to work out the importance of a number of options relative to each other. It is very useful when the analyst lacks objective data to base this on. 5-15. Comparison makes it easy to choose the most important problem to solve, or select the solution that will give the greatest advantage. Paired comparison analysis helps to set priorities where there are conflicting demands on the resources. Figure 5-1 shows a simple matrix for comparing COAs. Figure 5-1. Matrix comparing courses of action FACTS 5-16. Figure 5-2 uses the criticality, accessibility, recuperability, vulnerability, effect, and recognizibility (CARVER) targeting method to compare potential enemy targets on an overseas force. In this method, lower scores indicate less desirable outcomes, with higher numbers indicating a more desirable outcome. Employing the CARVER matrix—  In the offensive can help identify targets that are vulnerable to attack.  In the defensive can identify high-risk targets that require additional security assets for protection. 5-17. See ATP 3-05.1 for more information on unconventional warfare. The example in figure 5-2 compares the value of a potential target against the risk of neutralizing the target.