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Chapter 5 5-8 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 SITUATIONAL LOGIC 5-23. Situational logic is an analytical methodology employed by intelligence analysts when a situation is regarded as one of a kind and analysis will not benefit from broad or specific comparison with other events. Situational logic is normally used to trace cause-effect relationships or, when dealing with purposeful behavior, means-end relationships. For example, an analyst identifies the goals being pursued and explains why an enemy believes certain means will achieve these goals. There are two weaknesses in this methodology to be aware of: it is difficult for an analyst to see problems as an enemy may see them; and the process does not incorporate theoretical data from other areas or events that may assist in the analysis. 5-24. Situational logic is the most common method of intelligence analysis and is sometimes called the area studies approach. This involves generating different hypotheses on the basis of considering concrete elements of the current situation. Broad, global generalizations are avoided. Even though most analysts know this to be untrue, every situation is treated as one-of-a-kind, to be understood in terms of its own unique logic. 5-25. Situational logic is cause-and-effect logic, based on the assumption of rational, purposive behavior. The analyst identifies the goals being pursued by the enemy and explains why the enemy believes certain means will achieve certain goals. One of the major risks with this approach is projecting personal values onto an enemy. The three-step process includes—  Step 1. A single entity (such as a country or province, organization, military, or political group) is examined, although on multiple interrelated issues. The analyst conducts in-depth research and builds a base of knowledge on the target entity.  Step 2. Next, the analyst seeks to identify the logical antecedents of the situation. This is called building a scenario. The analyst draws upon the knowledge base developed during the first step to develop a deeper understanding of the situation and how it came about.  Step 3. Using the knowledge base and the understanding of the situation, the analyst works backwards to explain the origins of the current situation; the analyst then identifies logical consequences of the situation to estimate the future outcome. SECTION II – ANALYZING COMPLEX NETWORKS AND ASSOCIATIONS 5-26. Analyzing complex networks and associations is the review, compilation, and interpretation of data to determine the presence of associations among individuals, groups (military units, insurgent and terrorist groups, criminal organizations), businesses, or other entities; the meaning of those associations to the people involved; and the degrees and ways in which those associations can be strengthened or weakened. 5-27. There are three related methods used to analyze complex networks and associations:  Link analysis.  Network analysis.  Sociometrics or social network analysis. Note. It is common for analysts to blend all three of these methods, in spite of their different approaches. Experience with a problem set and familiarity with the use of these analytic techniques encourages a blended approach analyzing complex networks and associations. LINK ANALYSIS 5-28. Link analysis is a technique used to evaluate relationships (connections) between various types of objects including organizations and individuals that use visualization tools to organize and display data. 5-29. Link analysis, along with network analysis, is a method used to identify, analyze, and visualize patterns in data. These methods all involve the collection, processing, visualization, and analysis of information. Although these processes can be done manually, link analysis in the U.S. military has largely become automated. This is because the vast amount of information intelligence personnel process on a regular basis results in information overload that negatively affects the ability of intelligence personnel to