ATP 2-33.4, page 85

Core Army Analytic Techniques 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 5-31 THE METHOD 5-119. Creating an incident overlay involved three steps:  Step 1. Select the type of incidents to display. The overlay may be used to display a particular type of incident, incidents by a particular cell, or other incidents at the analyst’s discretion. As you research the problem, ensure the relevant information is listed with the date or order in which it occurred. Make sure the data are properly referenced.  Step 2. Plot the incidents on an overlay to show activity spatially. The analyst examines the incident overlay asking the following questions at a minimum:  What are the spatial distances between events? How near are the events? If spatially close, what terrain or circumstances may have caused the grouping? Are there missing pieces of data that may fill those gaps that should be collected?  Did the analyst overlook pieces of intelligence information that may have affected the events?  Conversely, if events seem to happen more spatially distant from one another, is there a reason for the remoteness? Is it possible that the analyst has information related to multiple groups or cells?  What are the intelligence gaps? Are there changes in tactics, techniques, or procedures spatially apparent on the incident overlay?  What are the vulnerabilities in the incident overlay for collection activities?  What events outside this overlay could have influenced the activities?  Step 3. Display multiple incident overlays, using color coding of specific events or cells. Analyze the multiple incident overlays for any patterns, asking the same questions as above. Summarize the data in the incident overlay. PATTERN OF LIFE ANALYSIS 5-120. Pattern of life analysis is a focused analysis ofwhere and when a target has been with the intent to predict where the target will be. This analysis aids operational planning directly. Pattern of life analysis uses network diagrams and timelines to display a target’s historical movement patterns in time and space. FACTS 5-121. Pattern of life analysis should be as in-depth as possible. It should include potential refuge locations, work locations, travel patterns, known vehicles, and social activities. Pattern of life factors can and should be developed from as many sources as possible. This will require routine contact with local operational management teams, human intelligence collection teams, and the supporting SIGINT section. Higher echelon collection assets are also used to corroborate the patterns of life. 5-122. Used in concert with network analysis and/or link analysis, pattern of life analysis is useful in the targeting process to determine the location the HVI will be at, and when the HVI will be there. For example, if the analyst identifies that an HVI visits a particular restaurant, the location can be monitored as an anticipated future location of the HVI for time-sensitive targeting. THE METHOD 5-123. Pattern of life analysis is a combination of multiple techniques:  Step 1. Select pattern analysis tools to be used and focus on the target as you construct it.  Step 2. Construct a pattern of life network diagram, visually linking events, people, objects, and places in time and space to the target. The diagram is constructed so the flow of events is from left to right.  Step 3. Review the pattern of life network diagram and pattern analysis tools; analyze the target to determine any patterns that may predict future events or places where the target may be. Ask the following questions at a minimum:  What are the temporal distances between key events? If lengthy, what caused the delay? Are there missing pieces of data that may fill those gaps that should be collected?  Did the analyst overlook pieces of intelligence information that may have had an impact on the events?