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S2 briefing · 2025-04-13

Incorrect Update - April 12 - Two If By Sea

…And that that research combined with the losses, for instance, during the Battle of the Atlantic, the losses on the Allied side, you know, which ship was sunk, you know, at which location and uh on…
The Wire · 2024-08-28

The Wire - August 28, 2024

…Yesterday, a passing merchant vessel spotted the Sounion, which has not sunk and is still on fire. AC: As a reminder of the magnitude of this incident, the Sounion is carrying approximately 1 million barrels of…
Intel Update · 2024-07-20

Intel Update - July 20: Rooftops, Drones, and Blue Screens

seen several reports saying that there's a couple of hundred kilometer long uh oil slick from this vessel I don't know if it's sunk yet uh but looking at the video it's…
Intel Update · 2023-01-18

18 January Intel Update: Spicy New Year

…that it is likely that if China were to invade Taiwan the majority of paycom will be sunk probably within an hour uh by China and they're going to have to do that to actually…
S2 Book Club · 2024-03-08

S2 Book Club: Logistics in the Falklands

…would have had a much much harder time and as is uh what few vessels did get sunk on the British side definitely hindered Logistics efforts so here you have this expeditionary Force 8,000 mi…
The Wire · 2024-01-01

The Wire - January 1, 2024

…YEMENI ATTACK BOATS SUNK IN RED SEA.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Pacific: Over two dozen earthquakes shook the western prefectures of Japan this morning. Some of these earthquakes reached an estimated magnitude of 7.5-7…
Intel Update · 2025-10-18

Intel Update - October 18 - Das Bote

…However, the United States has sunk two vessels this week. one of which was the typical fastboat, but the other one was a narco submarines. Either way, the United States is certainly not backing down from…
The Wire · 2026-09-07

The Wire - September 7, 2026

…However, verbally stating that random noncombatants will be sunk for no other purpose than for revenge, is generally not in keeping with the Department of Defense Law of War Manual, which states on page 200 that…
Intel Update · 2026-04-04

Intel Update - April 4 - A Running Start?

…However, were those naval forces intended to be used in warfare? No, because most of them were sunk pierside. So, even the Iranians were not planning to use them against the United States and the Iranians…
Intel Update · 2026-03-14

Intel Update - March 14 - Schrödinger's War

…So, we've sunk a lot of ships, a lot of submarines, a lot of surface vessels pier-side at these facilities. So, using either of these comparatively deepish water ports would be pretty hard to…
The Wire · 2024-02-20

The Wire - February 20, 2024

…As the crew has abandoned ship, for simplicity the M/V RUBYMAR will be referred to as ‘sunk’ until more information becomes available. Regarding the probable shootdown of an American drone off the coast of Yemen…
The Wire · 2024-02-19

The Wire - February 19, 2024

…This morning, the RUBYMAR was reported as being sunk in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. AC: This marks the first (publicly-disclosed) successful sinking of a commercial ship by Houthi forces so far in this conflict…
The Wire · 2025-10-22

The Wire - October 22, 2025

…This is quite a bold statement considering he was fished out of the ocean after his narco submarine filled with cocaine was sunk by an AC-130J gunship, but nevertheless this points to the seriousness of…
The Wire · 2025-03-18

The Wire - March 18, 2025

…Likewise, other social media accounts attempting to stoke a war with Iran claimed that an Iranian ship called the Zagros was sunk as well. This too is probably false, considering that the Zagros (an intelligence collection…
Intel Update · 2025-07-19

Intel Update - July 19 - Thucydides Traps

…Two vessels were sunk uh last week, both of which were targeted in complex attacks by uh the Houthi militants in Yemen. I know everyone thought that we were kind of done with the Red Sea…
Intel Update · 2026-03-21

Intel Update - March 21 - Counting Chickens

…because they just don't have the supplies or because of the risk of a ship being sunk pier-side. Other vessels are too big to enter the shallow water ports anyway, and so they're…
The Wire · 2026-03-04

The Wire - March 4, 2026

The IRIS *DENA* was sunk by an American submarine with the crew abandoning ship overnight. The Sri Lankan Navy has conducted rescue operations of about 30 survivors, with about half of the crew remaining missing. -----END…
Intel Update · 2025-10-31

Intel Update - October 31 - Monitoring the Situation

…A little bit closer to the homeront back in the Caribbean Sea, the counter for this week is seven vessels sunk so far by uh Southcom. Casualty-wise, we're talking 18 KIA and one captured…
Intel Update · 2026-08-01

Intel Update - August 1 - ChokePoint

…Unfortunately, as it stands right now, the walk-away theory is also looking less likely because the sunk cost fallacy is driving much of the decision-making regarding the war. So, we've got that to…
Intel Update · 2026-06-20

Intel Update - June 20 - The Day After

…I do have to be careful, though, because even though I am personally skeptical about this deal being signed as it has, there is also the motivation to keep the snowball rolling because of the sunk