Intel Update - August 1 - ChokePoint

Hello again, everyone, and welcome back to the underground. This is the intel update for July 26th through August 1st, 2026. It has been quite a prophetic week around the world with many significant changes both at home and overseas. So, let's get right to it. Of course, the war in Iran continues to expand beyond the Middle East to now include North Africa. And most indications are lining up to point to the United States being poised to dive back into the bombing or possibly other lines of effort. It looks like we're going to be doing something or at least something is being planned. So, we'll have to find out what that is when we see explosions throughout the Middle East again. Here in the United States, it's been a fairly quiet week, but there have been a couple of events worthy of mention as the shadow war appears to be surfacing a little bit, showing us that even though many people are either oblivious or even just a little bit tired with the war, events that transpire thousands of miles away have a way of reaching out to us here at home. So, let's start with the United States and the large-scale cyber attack that struck Minnesota earlier this week, targeting water treatment an at home. So, let's start with the United States and the large-scale cyber attack that struck Minnesota earlier this week, targeting water treatment and processing facilities statewide. This initially took place on Sunday and Monday, but the true scale of this cyber attack is only become more public within the past couple of days. The nature of this cyber attack was to change the passwords to a lot of the logic controllers which managed the balance of water and chemicals at roughly 30 different water treatment systems throughout the state of Minnesota. Apparently, the attackers were able to change the passwords and essentially lock the local staff out of their own system so they couldn't control the flow of water and chemicals through various processes. Now, some of you might say, "Hang on a minute. I thought that these SCADA systems for water treatment facilities were supposed to be air-gapped and not connected to any kind of internet access at all so as to prevent this exact attack vector." Using common sense, you would be correct, but governments and public utilities have long thrown off the use of common sense, and over the years most of the computer systems that control our nat ut governments and public utilities have long thrown off the use of common sense, and over the years most of the computer systems that control our nation's critical infrastructure have been exposed to the internet. And most of the time it's done very poorly, too. I and many others have been talking about this for many years, so it's been an issue for a long time and not exactly something new. Everything is online nowadays, usually using the default passwords or exposed ports, and oftentimes the security practices of lower level administration like a county water supply they're not exactly the best. After the attacks in Minnesota the cybersecurity and infrastructure agency or CISA issued a nationwide notice for all other wastewater operators to basically cut the internet access to their systems. The notice itself states that quote CISA urges critical infrastructure owners, operators, and integrators to remove publicly exposed PLCs and other operational technology or OT from the internet as soon as possible. I'm no IT professional here but that's a little nonchalant considering what it sounds like they're asking people to do which is to essentially disconnect the entire country's cri but that's a little nonchalant considering what it sounds like they're asking people to do which is to essentially disconnect the entire country's critical infrastructure from the internet. So to me I don't know it sounds like it's kind of a big deal. It sounds like that's the modern equivalent of Boris running into the server room and yanking servers out of the racks with his bare hands. Obviously we're not talking space lasers here but still it's kind of a big deal. And because I highly doubt that the one-man IT departments running the wastewater treatment facilities in small towns around the country are scanning CISA's portals for the latest breaking cybersecurity threats. My guess is that more municipalities will be affected. In fact more attacks might have taken place already that have not been publicized. There have been a lot of incidents involving water outages around the country this week which certainly happen all of the time purely organically due to infrastructure problems but it would also make sense for other critical infrastructure attacks to take place which are a little bit more isolated. It's pretty hard to conceal the fact that 30 different water districts in one frastructure attacks to take place which are a little bit more isolated. It's pretty hard to conceal the fact that 30 different water districts in one state get taken offline but if it were just one facility it would be easier to pass off a malign action as a simple and benign outage. How many water main breaks have occurred around the country that don't really seem to have a clear point of origin? That's all I'm saying. As to what's going on in Minnesota it's really hard to say what is actually happening because cyber attacks aren't something that we can visually see or easily attribute to one malign actor but most theories regarding these attacks are suspect it was Iran. It could be anybody but probably the best evidence that it was the Iranians was President Trump himself brushing it off and blaming the state of Minnesota. Cloning on Minnesota's government while accurate and certainly appreciated in most cases, is also a bit of a poker tell in this case. If these cyber attacks were more of a false flag attack carried out by shadowy agencies within the US government, the White House would be chomping at the bit to blame the Iranians. So, the fact that they are downplaying this ma agencies within the US government, the White House would be chomping at the bit to blame the Iranians. So, the fact that they are downplaying this major incident here indicates that they are embarrassed about the incident and therefore the most likely culprit is Iran because we hit one of their desalination plants 2 weeks ago and we're talking about hitting more water sources and critical infrastructure soon as well. It's not like you have to have nation-state level access to hack a county's water supply. Nigerians with laptops do it all the time because critical infrastructure is something we just don't seem to care about too much. So, narrowing down the list of culprits is going to be pretty challenging to do. It could also be Russia or China, who knows, but my guess is that these events will probably continue regardless of who's actually behind it. Speaking of the Middle East for this week, we find some pretty significant developments which have been increasing in seriousness since last week's strikes took place. In short, calling this a Middle Eastern war is no longer accurate because this is no longer a war that is confined to the Middle East. Northern Africa is now on the me this a Middle Eastern war is no longer accurate because this is no longer a war that is confined to the Middle East. Northern Africa is now on the menu with the drone attacks that took place in the port of Damietta in the Nile Delta of Egypt. Earlier this week, two vessels were struck in the port, one tanker and one American regasification and storage vessel, which is basically a floating natural gas processing plant. This attack was most certainly no joke because that regasification vessel is one major target. The drone did hit the vessel, but it seems like it just did superficial damage mostly to the superstructure above the waterline, but if that drone had actually pierced the containment vessel for the liquid natural gas, that would have been one serious explosion that probably would have damaged quite a bit of the port. It's hard to say, but this is not at all like hitting a tanker carrying crude oil, which is not that flammable at least when it comes to getting hit with drones and stuff like that. So, liquefied natural gas is a whole other animal though and this could have been very, very nasty, but it turns out that the drone just hit uh, random equipment on the deck of the whole other animal though and this could have been very, very nasty, but it turns out that the drone just hit uh, random equipment on the deck of the ship. So, Egypt most certainly dodged a bullet and they're happy to downplay the incident as much as they can. The attack itself is also quite interesting because it was carried out with what looks like a Samad 3 long-range drone. It is very hard to confirm that based on the ever-famous eyewitness shaky cam in portrait orientation video, but this does give us a benchmark to work with. So far, we also just have the one video. I don't have the video of the drone actually hitting the other tanker vessel that was hit, but if we just use what we have so far, if these were Samad 3s, these drones only have an absolute max range of 1,500 to 1,800 km under the best possible conditions. So, that's the number we're working with for the absolute max theoretical range of this system. If we drop a range ring of 1,500 km, we can see the problem with this. Even flying in a straight line under the best possible atmospheric conditions with zero wind, it would be marginal at best. And the drone that we can see in the video also did not have the bubble possible atmospheric conditions with zero wind, it would be marginal at best. And the drone that we can see in the video also did not have the bubble fuel tank on the top, which gives it that 1,500 to 1,800 km range anyway. So, no matter what, it's kind of a moot point. It's not possible for them to have flown all the way from Iran. The question then becomes where did it take off from? Well, that only government-level intelligence agencies seem to know and they aren't talking, which is odd. Egypt is desperately trying to balance this because on the one hand, everyone knows this was a deliberate attack. That video circulated Egyptian media, it's quite public this was a drone attack. It wasn't an industrial accident like they tried to say it was. But on the other hand, they also don't want to have to adhere to the standard practice of carrying out strikes of their own to save face. Right now, the desire to stay out of the war seems to be winning. So, the real question is what shipping insurance companies do in response to this because now we have explosions taking place really close to the Suez Canal. I haven't seen much on that yet. I don't know what the insurance companies have dec ow we have explosions taking place really close to the Suez Canal. I haven't seen much on that yet. I don't know what the insurance companies have decided to do, but you got to know they're thinking about it because now we've got explosions taking place really close to another major choke point and this is something they're going to be having a lot of closed-door meetings about trying to figure out how to mitigate. And all of this is very important because of what's happening in Spain. So, maybe we can start to see the common theme that is building between all of these issues, which seem unrelated at face value, but in reality are all becoming intertwined in one specific way. So, moving over to the Spanish problem in the western Mediterranean, another major crisis is brewing on the African side of the Strait of Gibraltar. A few days ago, the migration crisis escalated sharply with the invasion of the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. Small boat operations and more random border breaches have been reported in this area for many weeks, but Spain's Supreme Court ruled this week that anybody who can make it to this peninsula cannot be deported. This immediately resulted in the floodgates of To n's Supreme Court ruled this week that anybody who can make it to this peninsula cannot be deported. This immediately resulted in the floodgates of Toledo being thrown open, and the Moroccan government began bussing literal truckloads of migrants to the border and dumping them at the fence. Nearly every single migrant that has been bussed in has been a military-aged male, and as of this morning, the local governor estimates that about 60,000 migrants crossed into Spain via the perimeter breaches and swimming around the fence. Mass looting, home invasions, and sheer bedlam have been reported in this small town, and last night a local boy was stabbed in the neck by a migrant during the fray in the street. Many of the migrants and unknown number of migrants have actually crossed back into Morocco and departed Ceuta once they realized there's no food and water in this small little enclave, and there are no ships that are going to let them uh get on board to cross the Strait of Gibraltar. So, a lot of them went back home after they realized it was kind of a fruitless effort. But, after the migrant wave hit this peninsula and the videos of the crowds went viral, another Spanish territory d it was kind of a fruitless effort. But, after the migrant wave hit this peninsula and the videos of the crowds went viral, another Spanish territory became overwhelmed as well. To the east, perimeter breaches have also been observed in the small town of Melilla, another port city that has been owned by Spain for centuries. On the ground, Melilla is much smaller and therefore much more defendable. Uh their border fence is also a lot better, too, but the hordes are coming over the top in places anyway, and the videos of this crisis are just incredible all around. I hate to be that guy in reference to a work of fiction to kind of make a point, but this crisis is literally the entire plot of The Camp of the Saints, one of the most controversial and banned books in history, which has got a lot of attention because, well, it's absolutely happening in real life now. As far as literary works go, it's a little rough around the edges because I think it was originally written in French, but if you actually read it, by the end of the first chapter, you will understand why this book is so heavily suppressed and banned by governments, school districts, and society at large. I'm probably going ter, you will understand why this book is so heavily suppressed and banned by governments, school districts, and society at large. I'm probably going to get in trouble just for mentioning that this book exists, but despite the people who call you nasty names for even knowing about this book, it is rather shocking to see the opening scenes of a work of fiction written, I don't know how many decades ago, uh starting to play out in real life in many different ways. So, I thought that was very interesting, and I think that might be why these videos are going viral. We here in the US have seen similar crowds of people down at Eagle Pass years ago. So, we're most certainly familiar with this, but just a sheer bedlam of people just coming over that fence, man, it's it's so dystopian, and there's really no other way to describe it other than just being out of the pages of a fiction novel. Back in real life, though, the reason for why this is significant in our modern time is that Ceuta is a major strategic asset for Spain, which allows Spain to exert some level of control or claim to the Strait of Gibraltar. It does not take a genius to know that having a presence on both sides of a major to exert some level of control or claim to the Strait of Gibraltar. It does not take a genius to know that having a presence on both sides of a major waterway is better than just controlling one side, and since Spain is a signing member of the Schengen Agreement, once the wave makes its way into Spain, they have free access to the majority of Europe without getting a visa or residency status. This is why Italy immediately halted their Schengen Agreement with Spain, even though Italy and Spain do not border one another. France is in the middle there, uh so, they don't really have a land border, but they do have a lot of maritime traffic via ferries and small boats between Spain and France, and at these port facilities, they don't, you know, they're part of the Schengen zone, so they don't check papers, right? So, Spain being unable or unwilling to control their own border is starting to threaten the entire continent, and Italy being one of the largest economies in Europe who is desperately trying to avoid the these migration problems, it was easy for for Italy to just say, "Yeah, we're not doing this anymore." So, similarly, 21 other EU nations have also publicly admonished Spain's it was easy for for Italy to just say, "Yeah, we're not doing this anymore." So, similarly, 21 other EU nations have also publicly admonished Spain's actions to have kind of an open border existence and Spain not really fighting back on the migrant trafficking routes, which have allowed free access to most of Europe. Once again, the whole idea of the Schengen Agreement or the Schengen Zone essentially removes a lot of national autonomy. So, we may start to see that getting readdressed in Europe in due time, but for right now, Italy has temporarily suspended free travel between Spain and Italy and due to the economic concerns that Spain is actually having to do something for once about the migration issue. After these videos went viral showing the invasion of Ceuta and Melilla, Spanish authorities have begrudgingly begun to fortify the perimeter fence. Although Spain's Prime Minister has openly stated that this is not an emergency and he is only doing the very bare minimum to get the rest of Europe off of his back. So, we shall see how Spain handles this moving forward. I don't think a whole lot's going to change, but we'll have to see how it goes. Now, zooming out to the globe once Spain handles this moving forward. I don't think a whole lot's going to change, but we'll have to see how it goes. Now, zooming out to the globe once again, we can see how serious the situation is becoming. And by now, the common theme should be clear. Most of the global maritime choke points are now threatened in one way or another. Hormuz is the one that's gotten the most attention because it has been closed to most bigger western ships for 5 months now. And as has been demonstrated time and time again, it doesn't matter if the Iranians or the Americans say that the strait is open. If insurance companies won't insure, shipping will remain stagnant at levels that are only a fraction of what they were before the war. In the Persian Gulf at least, we may not ever get back to the way things were before the war. And as of last week, we added another choke point to the list of concerns, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait or the BAM linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and eventually the Arabian Sea. This choke point is now being threatened by the Houthis who have instituted a blockade of Saudi ships and have enforced that blockade with missiles. That makes maritime choke point number two. the Houthis who have instituted a blockade of Saudi ships and have enforced that blockade with missiles. That makes maritime choke point number two. This week, we added a third concern as some phantom menace conducted strikes on Egyptian shipping in the Nile Delta demonstrating to the world that the Suez Canal is no longer safe and someone out there has the capability to conduct precision strikes on shipping in northern Egypt. If the Iranians can hit Damietta, they can most certainly hit the Suez Canal and the ships going through it. So, that is most certainly being taken under advisement for any of the largest shipping companies that transit that waterway. And lo and behold, just a couple of days ago, wouldn't you know it, another choke point at the western end of the Med is now being threatened by a migration crisis, which is certainly not directly linked to Iran and not something that is as kinetic as missile strikes, but still, maybe we'll get there next, I don't know. The Strait of Gibraltar is now being viewed through a lens of security and trade routes have already been disrupted because of the actions that are taking place there. Italy cutting off Spain from visa free trav security and trade routes have already been disrupted because of the actions that are taking place there. Italy cutting off Spain from visa free travel is going to hurt quite a lot and due to the shocking videos coming out of the Spanish territory of Ceuta, this is going to probably result in this problem being viewed through more of a military lens than a civil lens moving forward. This is why I think we're in some very serious and very dangerous ground. The war itself in Iran is quite stagnant. There's only so many times you can look at satellite imagery and see things blow up and there's this tit-for-tat back and forth. People tune it out. They think that, "Okay, well, we're just in for another GWOT part two, right? However long this lasts is however long it lasts. Hopefully it won't last 20 years, but it's been 5 months and people are kind of just, you know, living their daily lives because of that despite what we're doing in the Middle East." So, I get it. It's easy to slip into complacency. I've done it myself doing you know, all the time, but we have to step back and look at what this war is actually spun into. Not just the war in Iran, but also the war in Ukraine, which is ll the time, but we have to step back and look at what this war is actually spun into. Not just the war in Iran, but also the war in Ukraine, which is threatening other shipping areas, too. As boring as it is, wars fought over trade routes tend to be global in nature and this is already spinning out of control to the point that I don't think we can avoid this becoming rather serious. As of right now, four of the world's most important maritime choke points are directly threatened with combat action. Hormuz, the Bam, Suez, and the ever forgotten Turkish straits linking the Black Sea with the Med. Remember, Ukraine and Russia have been targeting each other continually on the high seas, so that's another choke point threatened by war. Granted, Turkey, despite their issues, is a little bit more stable and has so far been able to guarantee safety through the Turkish straits for the ships that choose to go through there, but still, it's a rather important waterway that historically is quite relevant. A lot of wars have been fought over the Turkish straits, and that's something that we should probably keep an eye on. More indirectly this week, the Strait of Gibraltar is threatened by inst Turkish straits, and that's something that we should probably keep an eye on. More indirectly this week, the Strait of Gibraltar is threatened by instability and mass migration to the point that it's affecting the strategic balance of the region. It's harder, and it's debatable, you can disagree, but it's harder to say, "Well, the Strait of Gibraltar is now going to be part of the Iran war." I wouldn't go that far, but what is undeniable is that it's threatening stability, and anytime stability is threatened with a global maritime choke point kind of in the general vicinity, things get kind of dicey. To be honest, at this point, all we need is some kind of crisis in Panama or some kind of kerfuffle in the Strait of Malacca, and we could be in a bit of a pickle here. The Strait of Malacca has been coming up a lot in a PACOM context with, you know, Chinese expansion and the maritime trade moving through that region. I wouldn't call it threatened, I think the Strait of Malacca is fine at the moment. Same thing with Panama, there's really no concern down there now, but the fact that we're having to think about this in the first place, just think of how shocking that is. Just think of h no concern down there now, but the fact that we're having to think about this in the first place, just think of how shocking that is. Just think of how absurd that is. This little minor desert war in the Middle East has now transcended to include most of the planet. Thankfully, most of the global impacts are not in missiles and bombs, they're just economic and energy related, but still, this is the the the stepping stones are in place already for this to escalate much further. I don't know if it will get any worse or how this is going to expand, but what's very clear is that this war is no longer localized to Iran. Since the rhetoric and strategic moves this week have continued to indicate that the war is going to continue on for some time and will probably return to more full-scale bombing, the situation is not looking super great. Peace is completely off the table for the time being, and if we are trying to guess when this war might end, I'm not seeing any indications that this conflict is going to be over anytime soon. I have seen many others in the industry speculate that this war might last until the end of the year, and I think that's not an unreasonable assessment. Unfortun many others in the industry speculate that this war might last until the end of the year, and I think that's not an unreasonable assessment. Unfortunately, as it stands right now, the walk-away theory is also looking less likely because the sunk cost fallacy is driving much of the decision-making regarding the war. So, we've got that to contend with. And just to be brutally honest for a minute, the Iranians have really been putting up a fight. We don't have to like it, but the Iranians have not just been able to survive the American bombing, but they have actually been able to maintain a lot of over-the-horizon targeting capability, either via the use of proxy groups, such as the attack on Egypt, or in the cyber realm, like their alleged involvement in the Minnesota cyber attacks. Classic warfare history, right? The defender has the advantage. And in this case, I really do not know what the grand strategy is here at the Pentagon regarding how this war is planned to be fought. Obviously, the availability of munitions is probably playing more of a role than we might think. The reason we're not hitting them as hard as we thought we would is maybe we don't have the bombs to do it. I d ng more of a role than we might think. The reason we're not hitting them as hard as we thought we would is maybe we don't have the bombs to do it. I don't know. But, the uncertainty and the lack of a clear military objective regarding the war is going to complicate things for a while, and we're just going to have to wait and see. I know that's classic at this point, right? We're just going to have to wait and see, but there has not been any major American targeting in Iran for several days now, and we're really due for another round of strikes after last weekend's sorties were called off. So, I guess we're still kind of trapped on this roller coaster ride, and we're just going to have to see what our politicians decide to do with it, and hope that the homeland isn't affected too much. But, no matter what happens at the national stage, here at the local stage, down at the lower level of the individual person, no matter what happens, we can be as prepared as possible here on the home front. And one of the ways that we can do that is to ensure that cyber attacks are not, we can still have some form of communication with each other and know what's going on over the horizon before threa ensure that cyber attacks are not, we can still have some form of communication with each other and know what's going on over the horizon before threats arrive at our doorstep. So, let's smoothly segue into wrapping things up today with the Ghost Net Reports for this week. These are some of the more interesting screenshots from those of you who participate in the main weekly Ghost Net network on shortwave radio. Every week I try to grab a few screenshots to show everyone the utility of the network and what kinds of information are being exchanged over the airwaves in a purely off-grid manner. If the entire internet goes out and we had to resort to long-range radio to communicate, this is the kind of information that will be available, which is kind of neat to see. Otherwise, I have another comms video coming out on Monday, which might be useful for those of you who are looking to improve the resiliency and capabilities when it comes to radios. So, stay tuned for that. There are a lot of really interesting things being worked on in the world of radio, and since radio is one of the only alternatives when the lines get cut, radio is what we have to lean on pretty heavily in the event world of radio, and since radio is one of the only alternatives when the lines get cut, radio is what we have to lean on pretty heavily in the event that modern telecoms infrastructure is not available for whatever reason. It's not the easiest thing in the world to learn, but we're getting there, and I think that the developments that are being made to smooth this out and make this a little bit more user-friendly for the average person, they're coming along pretty nicely. So, looking forward to continuing that later on this year. So, that's all I have for today. Thanks again to all of you who support the project on Patreon, and thanks to everyone else for watching. I really do appreciate it. So, thanks again, and I will see you next time. And as always, fight in the shade.