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The Wire · 2025-11-10

The Wire - November 10, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z November 10, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TRIBAL TENSIONS INCREASE IN MINNEAPOLIS AFTER ELECTION LOSS. GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ENDS AFTER FAA CLOSES AIRSPACE TO PRIVATE JETS. TERROR ATTACK IN INDIA KILLS 10X IN DELHI.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Caribbean: This morning the Pentagon announced two more kinetic strikes on narco-vessels in the eastern Pacific Ocean. 6x people were KIA as a result of the strike. India: This morning at least one (possibly more) Vehicle-Borne IED(s) were detonated at the Red Fort monument in Delhi. 8-10x people were killed during the attack, and dozens more wounded. Reports initially stated that one VBIED was the primary attack vector, however throughout the day reports emerged that up to 3x separate VBIEDs might have been involved. However, it is not clear as to if these other vehicles exploded because of their proximity to the original blast seat, or if they were separate VBIEDs altogether. The American Embassy in Delhi has issued a security notice, warning of additional attacks. Indian authorities have also observably increased security at other sites around the country, and 3x people have been arrested in conjunction with the attack. Analyst Comment: The culprit of the attack is not yet known. The choice of target, Red Fort (an old fortification from the Mughal Empire) doesn't really provide any indication either, since there's nothing really that political about the site. Some locals have claimed that the entire affair was not a terror attack, but an industrial accident. Considering the social media situation at present, it's not possible to determine the truth of the matter. However, the US State Department immediately issuing a travel notice indicates that this probably wasn't an accident. Right now it looks like this was a genuine terror attack, and this target was chosen simply due to this monument being a popular site among locals; there are always large crowds at this venue and it's very easy to get a vehicle in the middle of a crowd there. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, however lately Indian officials have been cracking down on ISIS-K militants which have been aided by Pakistan. In short, India backs the Taliban in Afghanistan, while Pakistan backs ISIS-K (which oppose the Taliban) in Afghanistan as well. As such, it's very likely that this attack is the latest development in the proxy war between the two nations, which has become increasingly more complicated over the years. India will be quick to blame Pakistan (which is probably not completely inaccurate), but at this point the entire proxy war between the two nations is so muddled that it's hard to discern who did what. -HomeFront- Minnesota: Following the loss of Omar Fateh in his race for Mayor of Minneapolis, tribal conflict has begun to simmer in the city. In a speech that was given in the Somali language only, Rep. Ilhan Omar expressed hostility towards the members of other Somali clans, which sided with Omar's opponent during the election. She openly called for casting out these other tribes from Minneapolis, and chastised those who translated her speeches into English...and thus revealing what she said. Utah: A large high-density housing complex under construction burned down yesterday. A catastrophic structure fire was reported at the facility under construction in Lehi, in the Traverse Mountain area. No cause of the fire has been released, but the facility burned completely to the ground. Washington D.C. - The FAA has announced more airspace restrictions due to the shortage of air traffic controllers. Private planes have been banned from 12x major airports around the country, in an effort to reduce the strain on control towers, most of which are running skeleton crews during off-peak hours. Shortly after the announcement of this policy was posted by the National Business Aviation Association (NBAA), the Senate escaped the deadlock to end the government shutdown. Analyst Comment: One of the fastest ways to end a government shutdown is to effectively restrict big political donors from using their private jets...when big money can't fly their private planes into DCA, phone calls get made. As a result, this move immediately resulted in a deal being reached in the Senate, ending the government shutdown. As it stands though, the FAA's closure of these 12x airports remains, but over the next few days this restriction is likely to be lifted, as staffing issues get sorted out. Funding the government won't fix long-standing issues in the aviation community, but in this case the restrictions on private planes aren't likely to last too long. Washington D.C. - Also in Washington, this morning President Trump hosted the diplomatic state visit of Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani). Per the photos provided by the White House the meeting was amiable, and ended on a positive note as supporters of Jolani demonstrated outside the White House. Analyst Comment: Though innocuous to some, the weight of this visit did not go unnoticed. As a reminder, Jolani was the leader of a major faction of al-Qaeda in Syria during the war, and also was a legendary and brutal warlord that fought against the United States during the early years in Iraq. To see him in the Oval Office warmly embracing the leadership of a nation who, not even eight years ago designated him a High Value Target wanted for the systemic murder of civilians, is a fitting end to the Global War on Terrorism era. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In Minneapolis, there are roughly six different Somali clans that are present in large numbers. The Darood, Dir, Isaaq, and Hawiye clans are the largest with the most political pull, but there are dozens of smaller sub-clans which are prone to much infighting. It is this infighting that cost Omar Fateh the election. Or at least that's the story running throughout the Somali community right now. As it stands, Jacob Frey won by enough of a margin that the Somali community (as overrepresented as it is) might not have been the deciding factor. It's hard to tell, but right now it doesn't look like infighting was actually why Fateh lost...pretty much all of the Somalis in Minneapolis voted for the Somali candidate, except for what looks to be a pretty small margin. Nevertheless, this has still caused infighting, because losing by a slim margin...is still losing. And this losing will probably work it's way out through Minneapolis in terms of inter-tribal conflict as has been openly stated by their own leadership. Throughout the continent of Africa, small tribes have been killing each other over the slightest nearly-imperceivable differences for millennia, and losing an election that a large diaspora thought they had in the bag will probably result in the general situation getting even more spicy than it already is. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
The Wire · 2026-03-23

The Wire - March 23, 2026

Indian Ocean: Statements made by NATO officials have refuted the claims made by US officials regarding the alleged Iranian missile attack on Diego Garcia.
The Wire · 2026-04-23

The Wire - April 23, 2026

…USA INTERCEPTS IRANIAN TANKER IN INDIAN OCEAN. CEASEFIRE IN LEBANON EXTENDED. US SECRETARY OF THE NAVY DEPARTS POSITION.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Lebanon: This afternoon President Trump stated that the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel will…
Intel Update · 2022-06-25

June 25 Intel Update: "Cause Unknown, Investigation Underway"

…is tied to india and india is a very big player in the you know obviously the indian ocean but also throughout the southeast asian region moving to europe crow has been on the menu for…
The Wire · 2026-03-04

The Wire - March 4, 2026

Indian Ocean: This morning the US Navy torpedoed an Iranian frigate off the coast of Sri Lanka.
The Wire · 2026-02-16

The Wire - February 16, 2026

…UNITED STATES SEIZES OIL TANKER IN INDIAN OCEAN.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Indian Ocean: Over the weekend the United States seized the M/T *VERONICA III*, one of the tankers which fled Venezuela in the wake…
The Wire · 2026-04-21

The Wire - April 21, 2026

…US FORCES BOARD TANKER VESSEL TIED TO IRAN IN EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN. IEDS DISCOVERED BY HOMEOWNER IN COLORADO.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: This morning CENTCOM announced the boarding of the M/T *TIFANI* in…
The Wire · 2025-03-26

The Wire - March 26, 2025

…FALLOUT FROM GROUP CHAT SCANDAL CONTINUES.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Indian Ocean: Aviation watchers have noted a significant buildup of military aircraft at Diego Garcia. Several B2 bombers have forward deployed to the infamous island, along…
The Wire · 2025-05-07

The Wire - May 7, 2025

Indian Ocean: The strategic buildup of bomber aircraft continues as 2x B-52 Stratofortress aircraft have forward deployed to Diego Garcia to supplement the 6x B2 Spirit stealth bombers already on the island. Two more B…
The Wire · 2026-05-07

The Wire - May 7, 2026

…As a result it's challenging to determine if a ship is successful in sneaking out until it miraculously appears on AIS tracking maps in the Indian Ocean after a few days. One absolutely critical factor…
Intel Update · 2026-04-25

Intel Update - April 25 - Surging Again

…Concerning the American blockade, the US Navy is starting to get more organized with the Indian Ocean now serving as one big interdiction zone for Iranian tanker ships. The United States has begun the more indirect…
The Wire · 2026-02-24

The Wire - February 24, 2026

…WEATHER CONDITIONS POOR IN TEHRAN.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Indian Ocean: Overnight, the United States seized another tanker vessel, interdicting the last remaining vessel that had fled Venezuela in the wake of the Maduro regime's…
Intel Update · 2025-04-05

Intel Update - April 5 - The Rubicon

…The Vincent's probably going to make their way into the Indian Ocean right about now, right as this brief comes out. So having two aircraft carriers in the Middle East is not entirely an oh…
The Wire · 2026-04-24

The Wire - April 24, 2026

…BUSH* (CVN 77) arrived in the Indian Ocean following her long journey around Africa. Another Expeditionary Sea Base (ESB), the USS *MIGUEL KIETH* (ESB 5) is also projected to be approaching the operational area, after having…
Intel Update · 2026-05-09

Intel Update - May 9 - Intended Consequences

…region are concentrated in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, as well as in the Indian Ocean, which is mostly serving as one big interdiction zone for Iranian ships that either run the blockade…
The Wire · 2025-03-31

The Wire - March 31, 2025

…An additional B2 Spirit (likely intended for deployment to the Indian Ocean with the others) was located in Honolulu, possibly due to maintenance reasons.
Intel Update · 2026-05-02

Intel Update - May 2 - Tactical Limbo

…the American blockade, which hasn't really worked out, because they still have to transit the entire Indian Ocean, where the US is interdicting ships, but it's been interesting to watch a few ships try…
The Wire · 2026-05-07

The Wire - May 07, 2026

…As a result, it's challenging to determine if a ship is successful in sneaking out, until it miraculously appears on AIS tracking maps in the Indian Ocean after a few days. One absolutely critical factor…
Intel Update · 2025-08-02

Intel Update - August 2 - Make Criminals Afraid Again

…The Nimttz remains in the Indian Ocean and the Washington carrier strike group was noted off the coast of Indonesia a few days ago. I also briefly wanted to mention because I think it does qualify…
Intel Update · 2026-04-19

Intel Update - April 18 - It's Not Over Yet

…Another clear example of resources being staged comes to us from the always famous Diego Garcia, the small and mysterious island base in the Indian Ocean, which became the focus of international attention last year when…