Intel Update - April 18 - It's Not Over Yet

Hello again, everyone, and welcome back to the underground. This is the intel update for April 12th through the 18th, 2026. Good grief, it has been a crazy week, crazier than usual, and of course, the focus this week has been on the Middle East due to the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, which has resulted in a lull of the targeting efforts. However, just because the shooting has slowed down somewhat, it doesn't mean that this is over, and there have been some major escalations to be aware of this week, which we'll dive into in a minute. Otherwise, the main focus this week has been on the sharp increase in extremely brutal crime throughout the United States, and also protests within the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland. Protests remain fairly constant in Dublin due to the energy crisis brought on by a combination of local issues as well as the conflict in the Middle East. Over in the UK, the Epsom protests have become more widespread as more local Englishmen have continued to rise up in response to the extremely brutal crime becoming common throughout the nation. Both of these situations continue to develop by the hour, but these are the main hotspots and iss brutal crime becoming common throughout the nation. Both of these situations continue to develop by the hour, but these are the main hotspots and issues that we're watching this week. So, all in all, not a whole lot of new stuff, but the situation has really gotten quite tense in the Middle East, which has kicked off unrest around the world either directly or indirectly. In the case of Ireland, a lot of the local tensions are being driven by fuel prices, same thing in Australia. And now that the war has been going on for 7 weeks, the chickens are coming home to roost, so to speak, and all of those more long-term or indirect second and third-order effects are starting to be felt around the globe. And based on the strategic movement for this week, it doesn't look like this is going to be ending anytime soon. Taking a look at the strategic resources that are being staged around the world, we have a better picture of what platforms have been dedicated for this fight, and how the rearmament efforts are being undertaken during the brief ceasefire. Most notably, the more interesting observation is the deployment of the George H.W. Bush carrier strike group, which is slated to replace the asefire. Most notably, the more interesting observation is the deployment of the George H.W. Bush carrier strike group, which is slated to replace the Lincoln, which is operating in the Arabian Sea. A few days ago, the Bush was observed to taking the long route around Africa, which is a very odd choice when the Suez Canal is the typical route. Officially, there is no explanation as to why she is taking the long route around Africa, but this diversion is likely due to the security threats that are present while transiting a choke point where the ship is constrained somewhat. And the normal route takes the ship through the Suez Canal and also the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which is where the Houthis are located. So, when the Ford was moving off station due to the fire damage she sustained in the northern Red Sea, she had to take the risk and transit the Suez to get out of there, but the Bush does not appear to be willing to take the same risk for some reason, probably the Houthis. One caveat that popped up this morning is that the Ford herself might actually be transiting back south through the Suez again to rejoin the war. This is not confirmed at the moment, but a US Navy P-8 Poseidon w lf might actually be transiting back south through the Suez again to rejoin the war. This is not confirmed at the moment, but a US Navy P-8 Poseidon was observed doing a little advanced recon in the northern Red Sea just a few hours ago, and this kind of track is usually indicative of the anti-submarine reconnaissance efforts that are conducted ahead of a carrier moving through a waterway like the Red Sea. But again, we'll have to see how this goes. Most people thought that the Ford was pretty toasted as far as the war goes, and she's already been on deployment for much longer than the average deployment is supposed to last. And remember, the Ford took part in the Venezuela campaign and immediately shifted to the war with Iran without taking a break. And after that laundry fire, it looked like she was being pulled offline. But maybe not, I don't know. If the war is going to be re-ignited soon, which looks pretty likely at this point, the Navy will need everything they've got in theater. Otherwise, some other notable platforms to be aware of are the expeditionary sea bases, which have been a hot topic to follow in the maritime community for a while now. These vessels are kind of new are of are the expeditionary sea bases, which have been a hot topic to follow in the maritime community for a while now. These vessels are kind of new, they've been around for a few years, but they've really just started getting uh some pretty heavy use throughout the fleet because they're essentially mobile sea bases for special operations, and they serve as more or less a mobile helicopter base that can be used for staging a lot of special resources in a forward area. As I mentioned yesterday, the John L. Canley is moving from PACOM into CENTCOM, which might be an indication of something. It's too soon to tell, but this is the most clear example of resources being moved into CENTCOM from the PACOM area of responsibility, and that's usually not an indication of peace anytime soon. Again, there are a handful of these expeditionary sea bases or ESBs, and I'm pretty sure there's already one in CENTCOM, so I'll track down some of these other hulls and see where they're at. But, on the naval front, there are a lot of resources just pouring into CENTCOM right now. Another clear example of resources being staged comes to us from the always famous Diego Garcia, the small and mysterious is g into CENTCOM right now. Another clear example of resources being staged comes to us from the always famous Diego Garcia, the small and mysterious island base in the Indian Ocean, which became the focus of international attention last year when this base was heavily relied upon as a staging base for Operation Midnight Hammer. As we all know, B-2s were forward deployed to this island for about a month or so, but eventually they decided to change the mission and to launch from home like normal as Operation Midnight Hammer was just a one-and-done fight instead of a more prolonged campaign. During this current war, this base has served as a logistics hub due to around 13 US bases throughout the Middle East either being completely evacuated or otherwise damaged by Iranian targeting. So, that's the strategic movement for the Middle East, but there are other movements being made to be aware of. Moving closer to the American homeland with strategic movement, there are two other regions to be aware of where military operations are being carried out. For one, Operation Southern Spear continues as before with daily strikes on narco vessels being carried out mostly in undisclosed regions of t ed out. For one, Operation Southern Spear continues as before with daily strikes on narco vessels being carried out mostly in undisclosed regions of the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Sorry, I haven't been able to pinpoint exactly where the uh Eastern Pacific Ocean strikes are being conducted. The Pentagon has been very, very tight-lipped about where these strikes are actually taking place because I suspect they're taking place off the coast of Ecuador along some known drug trafficking routes between Ecuador and Panama or Ecuador and Colombia. The United States is in partnership with Ecuador, and we actually conducted one of the very first drone strikes in Ecuador to target a narco base or some vague target the Pentagon never really explained, but even though we have a somewhat positive relationship with Ecuador, we do not have a positive relationship with Colombia. And though this is complete speculation on my part, it is possible that these strikes are being conducted pretty close to Colombia, or maybe the drug traffickers are transiting to Colombia and we're striking them in the Eastern Pacific Ocean before they get there into Colombia's territorial waters. I don't exactly know. No one Colombia and we're striking them in the Eastern Pacific Ocean before they get there into Colombia's territorial waters. I don't exactly know. No one really can know because SOUTHCOM is really just saying Eastern Pacific Ocean. Well, what does that mean? The Eastern Pacific's pretty big, but this has been the way things have been conducted for a long time now. We're bombing a lot of things down south, and we have no idea where it's taking place. This is going to be important to consider considering the other rather concerning strategic movement to be aware of, which is the potential conflict with Cuba. This week, surveillance flights began picking up with an MQ-4 being observed conducting a reconnaissance flight off the southern coast of Cuba, which has coincided with a sharp increase in Cuba rhetoric from the White House and other senior officials. Of course, this surveillance flight was conducted with the drone's transponder turned on, so clearly the Pentagon either did not care that the world was tracking it, or it deliberately wanted to send a message. In either case, the preparations to shift to Cuba are starting to look more possible, at least in terms of some sort of conting ted to send a message. In either case, the preparations to shift to Cuba are starting to look more possible, at least in terms of some sort of contingency planning taking place. There aren't any indications of resources being staged in the public eye just yet, but there probably wouldn't be since we could launch an invasion of Cuba from Florida. In any case, I'm going to start the IPB process for Cuba next, and slowly start to get ready for that just in case it starts looking more like a serious endeavor over the next few weeks. Right now, it's too soon to tell if any decision's been made. Maybe it already has been made, but in terms of what we're seeing in the real world as far as raw data goes, it's too soon to tell if we've decided to invade Cuba of all places. But, considering how things are going, I'm going to plan for it just in case. On the home front this week, the common theme has been crime. Exceptionally graphic crimes committed by the usual suspects remain a chief concern for many areas with multiple gang shootings and murders being reported around the nation this week. I try not to focus on regular street crime so much because there are literally hundreds of shootings ders being reported around the nation this week. I try not to focus on regular street crime so much because there are literally hundreds of shootings and gang-related crimes that take place every day, and it's just it's just too much to track. But, I did want to highlight that the violence has sharply increased around the country. So, we're definitely in the keep your head on a swivel season. In Washington, D.C., a citywide curfew has been reinstated for all juveniles who must be off the streets by 11:00 p.m. throughout the entire city. Separately, there are additional curfew zones which have an earlier curfew time of 8:00 p.m. These areas are the Navy Yard, an area over by Kingman Park and the Kennedy Stadium, and also the area to the north of surrounding Tacoma Field. These curfews are being enforced by the National Guard, which has continued their persistent mission around Washington, D.C., and all of these areas are in the legendarily high-crime areas. So, we'll see how it works out. My guess is that we're uh we're definitely in high-crime season. And for those of you who want to track a lot of these crimes that I can geolocate and find out where they took place, some of the mo igh-crime season. And for those of you who want to track a lot of these crimes that I can geolocate and find out where they took place, some of the more high-profile ones are the ones that actually we have some information for. I try to put them on my maps online, but again, we're talking hundreds of shootings a day at least nationwide. So, it's a pretty tall order. It's a pretty big task, but we'll cut through it this summer as best we can. And segueing into the Middle East, things have been happening very quickly in the region over the past few days, with the situation changing by the minute in some cases. So, chances are things will have changed by the time this gets uploaded. However, at this snapshot in time, this is the situation as it stands. Overall, the war in the Middle East, or technically both wars, the Lebanon War and the Iran War, are in a state of pause. No American bombing has been observed in Iran over the past week, and the Iranians have not launched any drone attacks on American bases or third- party nations either, such as GCC states. The Israelis are kind of doing their own thing as usual, but I haven't seen any ballistic missiles impacting in Israel from the I such as GCC states. The Israelis are kind of doing their own thing as usual, but I haven't seen any ballistic missiles impacting in Israel from the Iranians at least over the past few days. Hezbollah took a while to kind of calm down after the ceasefire was announced, so we'll see how that holds. But again, this is very much developing at the moment. So again, the war on the Lebanon side of things remains important because these conflicts are linked to each other, and this week the Israelis were carrying on with their ground invasion up until possibly yesterday. At the moment, it's hard to determine if this is true, but allegedly the Israelis have agreed to a cease-fire in Lebanon as in a stop to their ground advance and a stop to their bombing of Beirut in order to achieve some sort of diplomatic leverage in the Persian Gulf. It's hard to say how all of this is working out and it's hard to say if this is going to last longer than 5 minutes, but that's what's being conveyed by the diplomats on all sides at the moment. Otherwise, most of the focus this week has been on the Strait of Hormuz and its status of being open or closed. I know we may have Hormuz fatigue at this moment, but of the focus this week has been on the Strait of Hormuz and its status of being open or closed. I know we may have Hormuz fatigue at this moment, but this is what's driving a lot of the consternation here in the United States. So, we've got to be aware of the insanity that's going on over there. There has been a lot of back and forth between the United States and Iran and the Strait itself has been the biggest point of contention. And the word contention has been a huge understatement. The situation's changed so radically over the past few days that it's very challenging to follow the timeline of events. So, please forgive me if I get some of these details wrong. It's It's been really tough to follow because what's happening in the real world does not matching what's being said by diplomats. Initially, I think yesterday or the day before yesterday, President Trump announced that the Strait was open and available for use by anyone, but the American blockade will remain in place. Shortly after that announcement, the Iranians stated that there were conditions for opening the Strait and as it turned out, shocker, those conditions were exactly the same as what was already in place. Yes t there were conditions for opening the Strait and as it turned out, shocker, those conditions were exactly the same as what was already in place. Yesterday evening, a few dozen vessels attempted to transit the Strait before being turned back by the Iranians. A few ships did make it through the Iranian side of the blockade and as of right now, all of those vessels that made it through were sanctioned vessels by the United States. So, once they made it through the Iranian blockade, they got turned around by the American blockade and had to go all the way back. As if this wasn't complicated enough, the Iranians decided to close the Strait again this morning and they did it in the most kinetic possible way. Two merchant vessels were targeted this morning in the Strait of Hormuz. One was engaged by small arms or crew-served weapons from two Iranian gunboats and another vessel reported being shot at with some sort of cruise missile or something that did not appear to have impacted the vessel, but it was targeted. Radio chatter from at least one of these vessels suggests that the vessel had been given approval by the Iranians, but it was engaged anyway. So, there's no telling what is goi t one of these vessels suggests that the vessel had been given approval by the Iranians, but it was engaged anyway. So, there's no telling what is going on because as I'm recording this, this incident was just confirmed by the UKMTO. So, I don't know what's going on. Based on a few tweets that I've seen come out in the past few minutes as I have this while I'm recording, it looks like the Iranians are indeed closing the strait again. This will very likely change even before I'm done uploading this video. So, things are so crazy that quite literally nothing might happen. We might just go back to the way things have been for the past month or so. Or if the United States so chooses, we might be back to dropping bombs in Iran by this afternoon. That's how wide the window is regarding our potential courses of action. We simply don't know how this is going to work out. This is why confusion abounds regarding the impacts of the war. The core of the global energy supply is located behind two naval blockades, both of which have been described in questionable terms to the point that vessels are not sure if they're allowed through or not. Right now, the world is watching individual hulls. Tha in questionable terms to the point that vessels are not sure if they're allowed through or not. Right now, the world is watching individual hulls. That's what we're That's what we're down to now. We're tracking individual ships either transiting or attempting to transit the strait because each individual hull is being treated on a case-by-case basis. Insurance companies, they're not going to get down into the weeds this far because the situation is so variable. And if the Iranians are starting to shoot at vessels again and they're closing the strait once again, this is what we might call a minor setback. In terms of things getting back to normal, there's probably another angle to all of this, which is China. The uncertainty regarding at least the American blockade is definitely not helping matters, but if we're thinking about the China angle, which again is probably being way more gracious with this than we probably should be, but we're trying to be well-rounded and not as biased as normal, we have to think of the China angle to this and implementing a blockade to open the strait, you know, closing the straits to open the strait. That's That's That's insanity. That makes no sense. and implementing a blockade to open the strait, you know, closing the straits to open the strait. That's That's That's insanity. That makes no sense. Unless one possible possible very loose theory is that maybe the true goal of the American blockade is just to prevent China from benefiting from Iranian oil while the US is embroiled in the war. Maybe the American leadership doesn't really care about the Middle East in terms of whether or not we get the oil. They just don't want China to have it. Kind of a scorched earth thing. This so the blockade might be more of a scorched earth tactic. I don't know. This is not the openly stated goal by American officials, but reading between the lines, this is the This is the only plausible explanation for a blockade to be implemented in the first place and implemented in the way that it is. So, that's the only theory I can think up in terms of why we would even start this blockade in the first place. But anyway, it's probably a moot point because as of this morning, the real world impacts remain exactly the same as before. As of this morning, the strait is still closed by both the Americans and the Iranians who have reclosed it after a few of t xactly the same as before. As of this morning, the strait is still closed by both the Americans and the Iranians who have reclosed it after a few of their sanctioned vessels made it out. Global fertilizer availability, fuel prices, and the manufacture of plastics, and all of the previous concerns that have come about since the war began, these are still in place. So, there's been no change over the past 7 weeks. And if the Iranians are shooting at vessels again and closing the strait completely, the fat lady has most certainly not sung just yet and this conflict is not yet over. So, that's where things stand right now and that's that's all I've got for today. Sorry to cut things short, but I'm trying to get caught up with some of the more educational stuff I'm working on at the moment and I really need to make some progress on that. So, I will continue to monitor the situation as we say and hopefully we'll have a better picture for how the Hormuz crisis works out. The various clocks are ticking down with Europe and Australia running out of gas and the US is also suffering due to both the fertilizer and fuel crunch that is now beginning to take effect a full 7 weeks after the war be ut of gas and the US is also suffering due to both the fertilizer and fuel crunch that is now beginning to take effect a full 7 weeks after the war began. So, that's all I've got for now. I'm going to cut it here and transition to writing the next report because things are happening rather quickly and we might see another flare-up of conflict over the next few days. So, stay frosty, everyone. Take care and remember that the events overseas are a big concern because they drive our society and they drive a lot of the unrest here in the US, but all of us here at home are more likely to be impacted by routine crime or just crazy times in our day-to-day lives. So, let's keep at it, do the best we can, and I'll see you next time. And as always, fight in the shade.