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The Wire · 2026-07-06
//The Wire//2300Z July 6, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CHINA AND NORTH KOREA CONDUCT MISSILE TESTS IN PACIFIC. RUSSIA AND UKRAINE CONDUCT MAJOR TARGETING EFFORTS. INDONESIAN MILITARY RECOVERS REMAINS OF AMERICAN PILOT KILLED IN AMBUSH OVER THE WEEKEND.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Far East: Multiple missile tests were reported over the weekend, with both North Korea and China conducting tests of long-range munitions. North Korea tested a total of 12x cruise missiles from the *KANG KON*, the Choe Hyon-class Destroyer which is the newest addition to the Korean People's Navy. In China, a submarine-launched ballistic missile test was carried out at an undisclosed location in the Pacific, marking the first test of a SLBM by China in several years.
Europe: The war in Ukraine escalated over the weekend as Russia renewed strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. On Saturday, Ukrainian forces conducted more long-range drone attacks on Russian oil depots, most notably the Ust-Luga oil terminal in St. Petersburg. Separately, a different series of drone attacks struck various refineries in the Omsk region, deep within Russia. In response, Russia has conducted several strikes throughout Kiev, including the Vishnyovoye fuel depot on the southwestern outskirts of Kiev, which resulted in an extremely large fire. NASA's space-based fire detection sensors noted one very large fire at this fuel depot, along with a few smaller fires throughout the city that are anomalies from normal heat signatures in the region. In addition to the fuel depot, an ammo dump was co-located with this facility, which was used to store American tank rounds which contained depleted uranium penetrators, along with components for the production of cluster munitions which also contained depleted uranium.
Analyst Comment: Depleted uranium tank rounds are about 40% less radioactive than raw uranium that is mined out of the ground, so the radiological nature of this ammunition is not normally a concern. However, this risk changes substantially if it's on fire as the smoke produced by burning uranium does indeed present a radiological hazard, thus the evacuations. This ammunition storage area was located in a densely populated residential area, with the resulting fires prompting the evacuation of roughly 600x residents.
Indonesia: Over the weekend, Indonesian troops conducted an operation to recover the remains of an American civilian pilot who was killed by armed rebels in a remote town high in the mountains southeast of Wamena on the island of West Papua. Nicholas F. Goselin was a bush pilot flying supplies and materiel into Balinggama Airstrip when he was ambushed last Thursday. The attack was carried out by the West Papua Liberation Army (TPNPB), a separatist movement that has been seeking independence from Indonesia for a few decades. The rebels allowed Goselin to land, before murdering him on the airstrip and burning his aircraft. At the time of the ambush, a total of 7x passengers (local Indonesian villagers) were allegedly onboard the aircraft and their status is unknown.
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Analyst Comments: According to the armed rebels in Indonesia, the reason for the murder is due to Goselin allegedly shuttling Indonesian special forces into the region to fight the rebels. An American bush pilot landing at sketchy airstrips, alone, in the middle of a war-torn region high in the mountains is not a particularly safe career choice, and it's not clear as to what prompted the rebels to conduct this attack. The rebel group has claimed that they warned the aircraft not to land, but the airline that Goselin was flying for (PT AMA) made no mention of acknowledging any no-fly zones declared by armed groups.
In any case, due to the death of an American, the Indonesian military is likely to crack down hard on this region over the next few weeks, in order to prevent rebel groups from capitalizing on their power-projection operations. Back in April, the United States signed a non-binding "defensive cooperation partnership" with Indonesia as Washington sought to increase relations by way of undermining Chinese expansion in the region.
On April 13th of this year, one day before the defense pact was signed, Indonesian media reported that their nation was discussing (or had already agreed to) allowing American military access to their airspace.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
The Wire · 2025-08-11
//The Wire//2300Z August 11, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WHITE HOUSE ENACTS HOME RULE ACT TO FEDERALIZE CONTROL OF WASHINGTON D.C. POLICE FORCES//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
Pennsylvania: This morning a large explosion was reported at the U.S. Steel Clairton Coke Works facility near Pittsburgh. Multiple casualties were reported from the explosion, which resulted in catastrophic damage to the structure.
Washington D.C. - Efforts to crack down on street crime became more solidified over the weekend, with the White House officially enacting Section 740 the Home Rule Act to federalize administrative control of the city's police forces.
In response to a few shootings and "street takeovers" that took place in D.C. over the weekend, a "juvenile" curfew zone has been established by Metro PD near the Navy Yard and Capitol Riverfront (a notoriously high-crime area). The White House also stated that various National Guard units will be deployed throughout the city, though exactly how this will work out is unclear.
Analyst Comment: This afternoon, various anti-Trump rallies/protests were held throughout the city, with locals using this move to form a level of opposition to Trump's policies on everything from illegal immigration, to diversity initiatives. Some scuffles broke out among demonstrators as groups who possessed slightly different beliefs started arguments which escalated into more direct confrontations.
Texas: This afternoon a shooting was reported at a Target store in Austin. Two people were killed and several others were wounded during the engagement. The suspect carjacked a vehicle during the escape, but was apprehended some time later. No further details have been released as of this report.
Colorado: District Attorney Amy Padden has officially dropped all charges against Solomon Galligan, an individual who was captured on video attempting to kidnap a child in broad daylight from an Elementary School back in April.
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Analyst Comment: These charges were dropped because of Galligan's alleged mental illnesses, which somehow dictate that someone with a criminal history a mile long (many of which are crimes against children) is somehow entitled to not be locked away for the rest of his life. This leaves little recourse for the general public and highlights a critical flaw within our justice system at large...if the government won't prosecute someone who commits a crime, there's nothing the people can do. The DA's and judges who let criminals out of detention for personal reasons are almost never held accountable for their actions in releasing violent criminals into society, and the vicious cycle continues. In this specific case, the concept of due process cannot be tested as this man is not even being charged for trying to snatch a child from a school playground, so he won't even see the inside of a courtroom for his actions this time, much less get a conviction of any kind. As such it is extraordinarily likely that Galligan is already in the process of being released to the public once again.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
The Wire · 2026-06-16
//The Wire//2300Z June 16, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ALLEGED TERRORISM PLOT FOILED AT WHITE HOUSE UFC EVENT. MASS 911 CALL CENTER OUTAGE REPORTED LAST NIGHT. B-52 CRASHES IN CALIFORNIA. RUSSIAN WARSHIP FIRES WARNING SHOTS NEAR YACHT IN THE ENGLISH CHANNEL.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
English Channel: This morning a Russian warship engaged a private yacht 20 miles off the coast of the Isle of Wight. The Krivak V-Class Frigate (FFG) *Admiral Grigorovich* fired warning shots in the general vicinity of privately owned yacht, which did allegedly not heed audible warnings to steer clear, and was approaching their position outside Britain's territorial waters. No damage or casualties were reported during the incident, and two Royal Navy vessels were also on station, shadowing the *Grigorovich* during the incident.
Analyst Comment: The proverbial business appears to be getting out of control on the high seas, and this is the latest escalation to occur in the region over the past few days. Two days ago, the Royal Navy boarded and seized the Russian dark-fleet tanker (the M/T *SMYRTOS*) in the Channel, continuing the recent trend of NATO members capturing ships smuggling oil from Russia, to the global grey-market. As a result, this little spat could be more along the lines of diplomacy by warning shot.
Middle East: As the peace settlement continues to move toward a signing on Friday, the Iranians and Americans are continuing to enforce the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Overnight, at least one vessel was reportedly fired upon by the Iranians for attempting to transit the Strait without prior coordination, however this has not been confirmed by the UKMTO yet.
-HomeFront-
USA: Yesterday evening mass waves of 911 call center outages were reported. Disruptions to emergency services were noted in Iowa, Arizona, Texas, and Washington due to the outage, and no further details have been provided on the cause of the incident.
California: A crash of a B-52 Stratofortress was reported at Edwards Air Force Base during a routine training mission testing a new radar system. The crash reportedly took place immediately after takeoff, and the circumstances of the incident have not yet been disclosed. All 8x members of the crew were killed in the crash.
Washington D.C. - Following Sunday's UFC event on the White House lawn, the FBI has released the details of an alleged terror attack targeting the venue. So far, five suspects have been arrested by federal authorities for attempting to carry out a complex coordinated attack at the event. Per the FBI, the attack was alleged to have utilized sniper teams, explosive drones, and a breach of the perimeter fence.
Analyst Comment: Right now, very few details have been provided on what would have been one of the most substantial terrorist attacks in recent memory. This would also be one of the very few terror attacks that was foiled ahead of time, and many questions remain regarding the circumstances of this whole affair.
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Analyst Comments: Contradictions also continue regarding the status of the peace deal in the Middle East. Yesterday, President Trump took to social media to explicitly state that the $300 million (sic) payment to Iran that is part of the leaked deal terms, is fake news. However, this morning Vice President Vance flat-out confirmed that the Iranians will have access to a $300 Billion fund, which will be made available to Iran as part of their cooperation in the agreement. As a result of these contradictions, the contents of the peace deal remain up in the air, even though the document has already been digitally signed by all parties, pending the wet signature ceremony on Friday.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
The Wire · 2026-05-20
//The Wire//2300Z May 20, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: POTENTIAL FOR WAR TO RESUME IN MIDDLE EAST REMAINS ELEVATED. VIOLENT ATTACKS, STREET TAKEOVERS, AND MOB ACTIVITY REMAINS PARAMOUNT IN UNITED STATES. U.S. TENSIONS WITH CUBA CONTINUE TO ESCALATE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: This morning CENTCOM announced the boarding and seizure of the M/T *CELESTIAL SEA* in the Gulf of Oman. This vessel was attempting to run the American blockade to onload cargo within Iran.
Analyst Comment: Otherwise the grand question of further military action remains. Regional aversion to a resumption of the conflict is understandably high, however military measures to prepare for a resumption of the war are ongoing. Both the Iranians and the United States have conducted substantial resupply and rearming campaigns during the ceasefire, and the Israelis have reached a point of semi-stability regarding their ground invasion of Lebanon. The Emirates and Saudis have likewise been the main belligerents actually conducting targeting efforts during the ceasefire, so they're also ready to go at a moment's notice. All diplomacy has failed so far, and all drafts of any sort of peace settlement provided indicate that all parties are probably further from a peace agreement right now, than when the war first began. All things considered, nothing might happen, or the war might kick off again soon, with President Trump himself indicating that the war might begin again this weekend.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - This afternoon, the DoJ announced the indictment of Raul Castro on charges of conspiring to kill Americans, which is linked to the downing of two American planes in 1996.
Analyst Comment: American aspirations for control of Cuba have become increasingly more serious over the past few weeks, with various tactics being used to apply pressure on the Cuban government. Of note, Castro is not physically located in the United States...he's in Cuba. As a result, this indictment could be laying the groundwork for a Maduro-style operation to snatch him, while simultaneously expanding the American foothold on the island.
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Analyst Comments: Around the nation, various instances of civil crime and unrest have resulted in localized states of chaos in various locations. Street takeovers have become common in most major cities, and mass fights/mobs/riots have become a routine threat as well. In Rhode Island, a mass fight resulted in 3x people being stabbed at Narragansett Town Beach. The same day, a riot of 400-500 people was dispersed by police in Rochester, NY after a meetup turned into a mass fight in Ontario Beach Park. In Washington D.C. local authorities are still seeking information on the suspects who caused a mob attack at the Navy Yard Chipotle over the weekend. In Long Branch, New Jersey a mass riot broke out after mobs began attacking cars in Pier Village. This devolved into a full-blown riot, with a state of emergency being declared, a curfew being implemented, and riot police dispersing the crowds.
In all of these cases, there was no reason for the unrest and destruction...this is just now routine behavior in many cities. As summertime arrives, the standard and routine behavioral/cultural considerations which make all major US cities very low-trust environments get dialed up to eleven, and street takeovers and flash mobs are very likely. From a threat assessment perspective, these types of incidents strike without cause or much warning, and take place purely due to the degradation of societal norms of accountability. As a result, there is no "trigger" to watch out for, and the only indicator of impending violence is the gathering of large crowds of people who are likely to engage in such behavior. Most of these riots are conducted purely for the enjoyment of violence, and consequently there's not much that can be done to mitigate these types of incidents, with the exception of avoiding large crowds which are likely to devolve into chaos. These riots are occurring during the middle of the day, on a weekday. And with Memorial Day weekend coming up in a few days, the potential for civil unrest is high.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
Intel Update · 2025-08-30
…Similarly, the US Navy continues their deployment down off the coast of Venezuela, which we'll talk about in just a moment. But just at a high level, there's been a lot of speculation that…
Intel Update · 2025-11-29
…So, it's kind of hard to remain motivated to be aware that a good chunk of the US Navy is still parked off the coast of Venezuela. But either way, we'll keep an eye…
Intel Update · 2025-10-19
…A pretty good chunk of the US Navy is still parked off the coast of Venezuela preparing for whatever they have in mind down there. And that's really uh the big bulk of concern for…
Intel Update · 2025-11-16
…So the fact of the matter that cannot be disputed is that a lot of US Navy forces are in the region and they are continuing to conduct strikes pretty much daily or at least every…
S2 briefing · 2025-04-13
…Go to Norfolk Naval Station, our favorite naval base for getting top- down imagery of US Navy auxiliary ships. And we look at a Henry J. Kaiser class replenishment oiler and our our satellite image of…
Intel Update · 2026-04-05
…The US Navy is not able to get within 100 miles of the Strait. And of course, maintain freedom of maneuver within their own terrain, yeah, absolutely, they control their own territory, at least for now…
Intel Update · 2025-05-10
…Regarding strategic movement this week, not a whole lot of change from last week, at least with regards to uh US Navy aircraft carriers and carrier strike groups, but there has been some major strategic movement…
Intel Update · 2022-01-20
…a deal this is now as far as any other cables i'm sure that other countries navies are inspecting uh their cables at the moment but again this takes months to do and this honestly…
Intel Update · 2026-04-25
…A lot of the US Navy's technical and tactical drills and exercises have been focused on that sort of eventuality, and every time a carrier in the years past went through the Strait of Hormuz…
Intel Update · 2026-03-15
…This is not to disparage the US Navy or anything like that, but this is just a fact of the case. The United States is not projecting sea power. We're not power projecting in the…
Intel Update
…I don't know if these vessels are being intercepted by the US Navy eventually at some point or what's going on, but right now the most hardest hit, the most affected vessels in the…
Intel Update · 2026-03-08
…We can certainly look at the satellite imagery as it rolls in to see that the US has in fact struck a lot of bunkers and blown up a lot of stuff. This was the assumption…
S2 briefing · 2020-07-15
…and hadn't realized that there were still three of us in the skiff because we were told to stay by the lieutenant commander navy lieutenant commander who had left himself so we realize these situations…
S2 briefing · 2022-08-26
…if that signal you heard is an encrypted handheld radio transmission or a qpsk modem used by the Iranian Navy and since this program pulls info from sigid wiki.com this will continuously be updated as…
Intel Update · 2022-06-16
…m sure the internet will tell us someday when talking about anything to do with guns these days i think of that old line that there were 260 navy seals that served in vietnam and i…
Intel Update · 2026-04-19
…This is not confirmed at the moment, but a US Navy P-8 Poseidon w