The Wire - December 20, 2024

this is the wire 4200 Zulu December 20th 2024 precedences routine information cut off is 1900 bottom line up front FAA enacts more no fly zones around electrical substations in tri state area beginning with international events in Germany this evening a vehicle ramming attack took place at a Christmas Market in mugur a vehicle rammed into a crowd of people partaking in celebrations killing 11 and wounding upwards of 60 people analyst comment as this incident is currently developing at the time of this report casualty figures will likely be revised as the situation develops on the home front in Washington DC an agreement has not yet been reached in Congress regarding the budgetary continuing resolution indicating that a government shutdown may begin at midnight in the Northeast throughout the region more flight restrictions have been in placed with eight new airspace closures being announced throughout the tri-state area continuing the trends from New Jersey the airspace closures are largely centered around electrical substations located on Long Island analyst comments for this wire in the closed door meetings amongst high ranking counterterrorism officials it would seem that no one has pondered the reasoning as to why our critical infrastructure sites do not already have no fly zones around them this is largely due to the historical analysis that the implementation of such can actually cause more harm than good mostly because it highlights exactly which sites are most vulnerable to drone attacks additionally most of the noly zones have been imp placed with parameters that are largely ineffective for instance most of the tfrs have been enacted covering the airspace from surface level to 400 ft above ground level or AGL this is not just a random number this is the parameter set by the FAA for the use of recreational drones without special approval recreational drones can't be flown at an altitude of over 400 ft AGL in the United States from a counterterrorism perspective this is utter nonsense no wouldbe terrorist seeking to use a drone to Target critical infrastructure is going to play by the rules once again this small detail dismissed by most is a massive tell that indicates how incapable federal agencies are remember the FBI is coming at the issue from the angle they always do that they can't stop any terror attack that they don't have a hand in planning and carrying out themselves in short if a wouldbe attacker doesn't get groomed and assisted by the FBI at some point during their attack preparations the FBI is powerless to stop or even know about the attack in the first place for instance the FBI is coming off of their recent bust the November arrest of Skyler Philippi who was allegedly planning to use a drone to attack an electrical substation in Nashville this case involved the FBI choosing to provide material support to a well-known mentally unstable individual to include providing attack plans explosives and assistance at the attack site on the day of the planned attack this is the mindset federal agents are operating from that terrorism as the American people instinctively know it doesn't really exist and that any serious threat to the Homeland simply can't materialize without the FBI's help this is a very dangerous perspective to operate from as it very obviously injects ego into counterterrorism Doctrine putting up a no fly zone around electrical substations strongly indicates this hubris anyone with any minuscule counterterrorism experience can assert that these noly zones are going to do more harm than good because the lawful users of drones are not causing the problems from the perspective of warfare Doctrine wargaming this decision for 5 minutes continues to demonstrate how bad of an idea this is much like how any obstacle on the battlefield must be observed at all times the implementation of a no-fly zone must be followed up with a layered defense it does no good to close airspace if the means are not in place to enforce that closure as you've just given away critical intelligence for nothing from a defensive standpoint airspace closures critical part of a defense in-depth plan by enacting a no-fly zone around a critical site anyone who is violating that airspace closure would be demonstrating a hostile act as far as most Rules of Engagement go this provides more information to the defender and is a crucial initial step in the targeting cycle in short when properly implemented airspace closures are a crucial tool in the counterterrorism toolbox but when implemented poorly airspace closures highlight more vulnerabilities than they prevent obviously any serious Insurgent held bent on causing destruction in the United States would not really benefit from the US government identifying vulnerable critical infrastructure any dedicated Insurgent is going to already know where the vulnerable sides are thus the larger concern is simply related to saturation now that the authorities have so conveniently identified our most critical infrastructure with flashing neon signs the total number of idiots who would otherwise not be a national security threat now have their attack planning work done for them so in effect the total number of people that could potentially cause problems is vastly increased by a visit from the good idea fery on the face of it putting up no fly zones seems to be a good idea to weed out the legitimate and legally operated recreational drones from the more malign threats the problem with this is that in a yes-man culture no one is willing to challenge the Judgment call that the no-fly zones are a good idea the closed door meetings surrounding this issue are without question a circle of Idiocracy probably centered around the perceived benefits of existing drone regulations One Federal agency the FAA assures another Federal agency the FBI that all consumer drones are programmed to not fly Within tfrs and that the user's phone won't allow the Drone to take off the FBI being satisfied with this doesn't know that their own efforts to help the ukrainians use drones in war have indeed come back to haunt the United States it isn't 2015 anymore now the biggest threat doesn't come from commercial offthe shelf or CS drones that have been retrofitted to carry explosives but from purpose-built fpv drones that operate completely differently the US government will 100% use the New Jersey situation as a way of pushing for taking more rights away from the people however the problem with using the field of counter terrorism as a political tool is that the whole field becomes rather poor at its main purpose stopping Terror attacks quite literally no one in government can understand that they are making decisions in a vacuum without all of the data and somehow federal counterterrorism agencies have The Uncanny ability to take a good idea and warp it Beyond any sort of Effectiveness because everyone is fighting for their resume bullet points without question when the day comes that a drone is used by a malign actor for an attack the Dozen federal agencies all involved in this will shrug their shoulders with apathetic egoism knowing that that they did their job the best they could the issue with this logic is that it's 2024 and every American can clearly see that this is not the case with random accounts on Twitter providing more counterterrorism benefit than the entire Department of Homeland Security for the first time in history a populace has the ability to assess terrorism risks with a greater accuracy than the federal agencies that have unlimited control over all data perhaps most perplexingly is that these no fly zones directly and clearly contradict the US government statements that the Drone sightings throughout the region are not a threat if the drones are not a threat or merely a case of mistake and identity why the noly zones specifically created for National defense purposes the implementation of such no fly zones largely indicates one of two possible theories that drones are being operated on American soil by Mal actors or that the US government is trying to cover their own tracks regarding their own drone testing and the no fly zones are a misdirection attempt at this point the former Theory sounds more likely as putting large bullseyes on our infrastructure for zero political gain is unlikely to be something that is undertaken whereas establishing no fly zones that are a feeble counterterrorism attempt that ends up doing more harm than good that's perfectly in line with the personalities involved at the higher levels of Homeland counterterrorism efforts this concludes the wire for 2000 Zulu December 20th 2024