ADP 3-90, page 16

Chapter 1 1-6 ADP 3-90 31 July 2019 RISK 1-36. Choices and the cost of those choices characterize all operations. Commanders decide if they can accomplish their mission based on current intelligence of the enemy situation and an assessment of the assets available (including time) and the means to coordinate and synchronize those assets. If those assets are not available, commanders choose to take additional time to plan, resource, and prepare for an operation, or they articulate where and how they will assume risk. 1-37. Commanders may act on limited combat information in a time-constrained environment. Combat information is unevaluated data, gathered by or provided directly to the tactical commander which, due to its highly perishable nature or the criticality of the situation, cannot be processed into tactical intelligence in time to satisfy the user’s tactical intelligence requirements (JP 2-01). Commanders must understand the inherent risk of acting only on combat information, since it is vulnerable to enemy deception and can be misinterpreted. The intelligence staff helps commanders assess combat information used in decision making. 1-38. Commanders cannot be successful without a willingness to act under conditions of uncertainty, which demands balancing risks with taking advantage of opportunities. No amount of intelligence can eliminate all uncertainties and inherent risks of tactical operations. Commanders will never have absolute situational understanding. A lack of information must not paralyze the decision-making process. The more information a commander collects concerning the mission variables, the better that commander is able to make informed decisions. Less information means that a commander has a greater risk of making a poor decision for a specific situation. Knowing when there is enough information to make a decision within the higher commander’s intent and constraints is part of the art of tactics and is a critical skill for all leaders. 1-39. To shape success, commanders take the minimum time necessary to plan and prepare. Reduced coordination at the start of an operation may result in less than optimal effects on the enemy. However, that reduced coordination may offer increased speed and momentum and, potentially, surprise. The more time a commander takes to prepare for an operation, the more opportunity the enemy has to prepare. 1-40. Bold decisions that are adequately informed give the best promise of success. Commanders accept risk when making decisions because there will always be a degree of uncertainty. Opportunities come with risks. The willingness to accept risk is often the key to exposing enemy weaknesses. There are times when leaders cannot find ways of addressing all of the risk and should consider if the outcome is worth the risk. Situational understanding, running estimates, and planning reduces risk. 1-41. In some circumstances, commanders can forego detailed planning, extensive rehearsals, and significant changes in task organization. Their prior self-development, training, and experience allows them to assess and create overwhelming combat power at decisive points. For example, an attacking battalion task force encountering enemy security elements just moving into position can conduct actions on contact to destroy these elements without the loss of momentum. Actions on contact are a series of combat actions, often conducted nearly simultaneously, taken on contact with the enemy to develop the situation. Friendly commanders determine what must be done to preserve combat power and create conditions for success. 1-42. Every military decision includes risk. Commanders exercise judgement when deciding where to accept risk. As shown in figure 1-1, commanders have several techniques available to reduce the risk associated with a lack of information and intelligence in a specific operation. Some of these techniques for reducing risk require the commitment of additional resources. Deciding what resources to divert to reduce risk is part of the art of tactics. In general terms, risk is the exposure of someone or something valued to danger, harm, or loss. Risk is an expression of the probability and implications of an activity or event, with positive or negative consequences taking place. It is a measure of the likelihood of something going right or wrong, and the associated impact, good or bad. 1-43. Because risk is part of every operation, it cannot be avoided. Commanders analyze risk in collaboration with subordinates to help determine what level of risk exists and how to mitigate it. When considering how much risk to accept with a COA, commanders consider risk to the force and risk to the mission against the perceived benefit. They apply judgment with regard to the importance of an objective, time available, and anticipated cost. Commanders need to balance the tension between creating opportunities, protecting the force, and accepting and managing risks that must be taken to accomplish their mission.