ATP 2-33.4, page 108
Intelligence Analysis
Army Techniques Publication: Intelligence Analysis
2014 public edition (Archive.org)
Searchable page text (OCR / PDF)
Appendix A
A-4
ATP 2-33.4
18 August 2014
HIGH IMPACT/LOW PROBABILITY
A-18. High impact/low probability analysis highlights a seemingly unlikely event that would have a major
consequence if it occurred. Conducting high impact/low probability analysis sensitizes analysts to the
potential impact of seemingly low probability events that would have major repercussions.
Facts
A-19. Mapping out the course of an unlikely, yet plausible, event can uncover hidden relationships between
key factors and assumptions; it can also alert analysts to oversights in the mainstream analytic line. High
impact/low probability allows analysts to explore the consequences of an event not deemed likely by
conventional wisdom without having to challenge the mainline analytic judgment or to argue with others
about how likely an event is to occur. This technique provides a tactful method of communicating a
viewpoint some might prefer not to hear.
A-20. An examination of the unthinkable allows an analyst to develop indicators that may provide early
warning of a shift in the situation. By periodically reviewing these indicators, an analyst is more likely to
counter any prevailing mindset that such a development is highly unlikely.
The Method
A-21. An effective high impact/low probability analysis involves the following steps:
Step 1. Define the high-impact outcome clearly. This process is what will justify examining
what may be deemed a very unlikely development.
Step 2. Devise one or more plausible pathways to the low probability outcome. Be as precise as
possible, as it may aid in developing indicators for later monitoring.
Step 3. Insert possible triggers or changes in momentum if appropriate (such as natural disasters,
economic or political shocks).
Step 4. Brainstorm plausible but unpredictable triggers of sudden change.
Step 5. Identify for each pathway a set of indicators or observables that helps anticipate that
events are playing out a specific way.
Step 6. Identify factors that would deflect a bad outcome or encourage a positive one.
A-22. Once the list of indicators has been developed, the analyst must review it periodically.
“WHAT IF” ANALYSIS
A-23. “What if” analysis imagines that an unexpected event has occurred with potential major impact.
Then, with the benefit of hindsight, the analyst figures out how this event could have come about and what
the consequences might be.
Facts
A-24. “What if” is similar to high impact/low probability analysis, but it does not dwell on the
consequences of the event as much as it accepts the significance and moves directly to explaining how it
might come about. It also creates an awareness that prepares the analyst to recognize early signs of a
significant change.
A-25. Using this technique is important when a judgment rests on limited information or unproven
assumptions. It can also shift focus from asking whether an event will occur, to working from the premise
that it has occurred, and letting the analyst determine how it might have happened. This opens the mind to
think in different ways and allows the analyst to develop indicators that may be monitored.
The Method
A-26. Like other contrarian methods, “what if” analysis must begin by stating the conventional analytic line
and then stepping back to consider what alternative outcomes are too important to dismiss, no matter how
unlikely.