ATP 2-33.4, page 115
Intelligence Analysis
Army Techniques Publication: Intelligence Analysis
2014 public edition (Archive.org)
Searchable page text (OCR / PDF)
Emerging Analytic Techniques
18 August 2014
ATP 2-33.4
A-11
and sensitize them to key uncertainties. Most participants find the process of developing such scenarios as
useful as any finished product that attempts to capture the results of the exercise. Analysts and
decisionmakers can benefit from this technique in several ways:
It provides an effective means of weighing multiple unknown or unknowable factors and
presenting a set of plausible outcomes.
It can help to bind a problem by identifying plausible combinations of uncertain factors.
It provides a broader analytic framework for calculating the costs, risks, and opportunities
presented to policymakers by different outcomes.
It aids analysts and policymakers in anticipating what otherwise would be surprising
developments by forcing them to challenge assumptions and consider possible wild cards or
discontinuous events.
It generates indicators to monitor for signs that a particular future is becoming more or less
likely, so that policies can be reassessed.
The Method
A-66. Although there are a variety of ways to develop alternative futures, the most common approach used
in both the public and private sectors involves the following steps:
Develop the focal issue by systematically interviewing experts and officials who are examining
the general topic.
Convene a group of experts (both internal and external) to brainstorm about the forces and
factors that could affect the focal issue.
Select by consensus the two most critical and uncertain forces and convert these into axes or
continuums with the most relevant endpoints assigned.
Establish the most relevant endpoints for each factor; for example, if economic growth were the
most critical, uncertain force, the endpoints could be fast and slow or transformative and
stabilizing, depending on the type of issue addressed.
Form a futures matrix by crossing the two chosen axes. The four resulting quadrants provide the
basis for characterizing alternative future worlds.
Generate colorful stories that describe these futures and how they could plausibly come about.
Indicators can then be developed.
A-67. Participants, especially decisionmakers, can then consider how current decisions or strategies would
fare in each of the four worlds—fast, slow, transformative, stabilizing—and identify alternative policies
that might work better either across all the futures or in specific ones. By anticipating alternative outcomes,
policymakers have a better chance of either devising strategies flexible enough to accommodate multiple
outcomes or of being prepared and agile in the face of change.
MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS WITH MULTIPLE SCENARIOS GENERATION
A-68. Morphological Analysis is a method for structuring and examining all the possible relationships
within an unproven, dynamic, and potentially complex environment. It is best used when—
There is little to no information available and surprise conditions are ripe.
There is a need to identify that threat variations exists.
The analyst needs to specifically understand the potential crisis conditions, to ascertain any
driving force interactions, and to understand the range of potential scenario outcomes.
Facts
A-69. Applying Morphological Analysis, specifically using the Multiple Scenarios Generation technique,
better enables the analyst to forecast multiple scenarios, not just the worst case or nightmare ones but also
those scenarios that represent favorable conditions or circumstances for U.S. forces.I