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Military manual ATP 2-33.4 Page 20 of 146 text: ocr+pdf

ATP 2-33.4, page 20

Intelligence Analysis

Army Techniques Publication: Intelligence Analysis

2014 public edition (Archive.org)

Page 20 of ATP 2-33.4
Searchable page text (OCR / PDF)
Chapter 2 2-18. Whenever we think, we think for a purpose within a point of view based on assumptions leading to implications and consequences. We use concepts, ideas, and theories to interpret data, facts, and experiences in order to answer questions, solve problems, and resolve issues. These eight elements help describe how critical thinking works: e Element 1—Purpose. All thinking has a purpose. Critical thinkers will state the purpose clearly. Being able to distinguish the purpose from other related purposes is an important skill critical thinkers possess. Checking periodically to ensure staying on target with the purpose is also important. e@ Element 2—Question at Issue. All thinking is an attempt to figure something out, to settle some question, or to solve some problem. A critical thinker is able to state questions clearly and precisely, express the questions in several ways to clarify their meaning and scope, and break the questions into sub-questions. e Element 3—Information. All thinking is based on data, information, and evidence. Critical thinkers should support their conclusions with relevant information and be open to actively searching for information that supports as well as contradicts a position. All information should be accurate, clear, and relevant to the situation being analyzed. © Element 4—Interpretation and Inference. All thinking contains interpretations and inferences by which to draw conclusions and give meaning to data. Critical thinkers should be careful to infer only what the evidence implies and to crosscheck inferences with each other. They should clearly identify the assumptions and concepts which led to the inferences being made. Alternative inferences or conclusions should be considered. Developing and communicating well-reasoned inferences is the most important part of what intelligence analysts provide because of the role it plays in aiding situational understanding and decisionmaking. © Element 5—Concepts. All thinking is expressed through, and shaped by, concepts. A concept is a generalized idea of a thing or a class of things. People do not always share the same concept of a thing. For example, the concept of happiness means something different to each of us. This is because happiness comes in many different forms. For a star athlete happiness may be winning and for a mother happiness may be seeing her children do well. Critical thinkers identify the meaning they ascribe to the key concepts used in their arguments and determine if others in their group ascribe different meanings to those concepts to ensure effective communication. © Element 6—Assumptions. All thinking is based, in part, on assumption. An assumption is a proposition accepted to be true without the availability of fact to support it. Assumptions are layered throughout our thinking and are a necessary part of critical thinking. The availability of fact determines the amount of assumption an analyst must use in analysis. Critical thinkers clearly identify their assumptions and work to determine if they are justifiable. Element 7—Implications and Consequences. All thinking leads somewhere or has implications and consequences. Analysts should take the time to think through the implications and consequences that follow from their reasoning. They should search for negative as well as positive implications. © Element 8—Point of View. All thinking is done from some point of view. To think critically analysts must recognize a point of view, seek other points of view, and look at them fair- mindedly for their strengths and weaknesses. CHECKLIST FOR REASONING 2-19. By applying the eight elements of thought, analysts can develop a checklist for reasoning. Developing and using a checklist, as shown in table 2-1, can help analysts focus their efforts to a specific problem and avoid wasting time on irrelevant issues or distractions. 2-4 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 Chapter 2 2-4 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 2-18. Whenever we think, we think for a purpose within a point of view based on assumptions leading to implications and consequences. We use concepts, ideas, and theories to interpret data, facts, and experiences in order to answer questions, solve problems, and resolve issues. These eight elements help describe how critical thinking works:  Element 1—Purpose. All thinking has a purpose. Critical thinkers will state the purpose clearly. Being able to distinguish the purpose from other related purposes is an important skill critical thinkers possess. Checking periodically to ensure staying on target with the purpose is also important.  Element 2—Question at Issue. All thinking is an attempt to figure something out, to settle some question, or to solve some problem. A critical thinker is able to state questions clearly and precisely, express the questions in several ways to clarify their meaning and scope, and break the questions into sub-questions.  Element 3—Information. All thinking is based on data, information, and evidence. Critical thinkers should support their conclusions with relevant information and be open to actively searching for information that supports as well as contradicts a position. All information should be accurate, clear, and relevant to the situation being analyzed.  Element 4—Interpretation and Inference. All thinking contains interpretations and inferences by which to draw conclusions and give meaning to data. Critical thinkers should be careful to infer only what the evidence implies and to crosscheck inferences with each other. They should clearly identify the assumptions and concepts which led to the inferences being made. Alternative inferences or conclusions should be considered. Developing and communicating well-reasoned inferences is the most important part of what intelligence analysts provide because of the role it plays in aiding situational understanding and decisionmaking.  Element 5—Concepts. All thinking is expressed through, and shaped by, concepts. A concept is a generalized idea of a thing or a class of things. People do not always share the same concept of a thing. For example, the concept of happiness means something different to each of us. This is because happiness comes in many different forms. For a star athlete happiness may be winning and for a mother happiness may be seeing her children do well. Critical thinkers identify the meaning they ascribe to the key concepts used in their arguments and determine if others in their group ascribe different meanings to those concepts to ensure effective communication.  Element 6—Assumptions. All thinking is based, in part, on assumption. An assumption is a proposition accepted to be true without the availability of fact to support it. Assumptions are layered throughout our thinking and are a necessary part of critical thinking. The availability of fact determines the amount of assumption an analyst must use in analysis. Critical thinkers clearly identify their assumptions and work to determine if they are justifiable.  Element 7—Implications and Consequences. All thinking leads somewhere or has implications and consequences. Analysts should take the time to think through the implications and consequences that follow from their reasoning. They should search for negative as well as positive implications.  Element 8—Point of View. All thinking is done from some point of view. To think critically analysts must recognize a point of view, seek other points of view, and look at them fair- mindedly for their strengths and weaknesses. CHECKLIST FOR REASONING 2-19. By applying the eight elements of thought, analysts can develop a checklist for reasoning. Developing and using a checklist, as shown in table 2-1, can help analysts focus their efforts to a specific problem and avoid wasting time on irrelevant issues or distractions.