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Intel Update · 2024-07-20

Intel Update - July 20: Rooftops, Drones, and Blue Screens

…is and the reason that I say are going to roll because of this is that time and time again we are reassured by the cyber security industry that you know one company or one guy…
Defeating Deception · 2024-03-22

Defeating Deception: Bayesian Analysis

…more to it than that and this kind of once you kind of do this a few times like pick an example and work through uh the the way that I have this equation laid out…
Below the Tearline · 2025-04-26

Below the Tearline: Mapping Project Update

…But give me some time. I I got to work on this a little bit more because right now there's no real one-click way of integrating this data into ATAC that's easy for…
Analytic Techniques · 2024-03-25

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

…was supposed to do likewise if you have uh everyone come back and you do this multiple times and everybody has EX exactly the same data that you have or something you know roughly very very…
Below the Tearline · 2024-07-19

Below the Tearline: Trump Shooting Hotwash

aircraft incursions at the exact same time as we have been expecting for years now uh it's fairly uh within the realm of possibility that China will be conducting a training exercise that will suddenly…
Military Doctrine and History · 2024-06-02

Anatomy of a Drone Strike: Deliberate Targeting

…know intelligence collection during something like prayer time or evening or night or different times of day or you know in the Middle East a lot of times you know the family members especially like women…
Intel Update · 2025-08-16

Intel Update - August 16 - No Easy Solutions

…Now, one thing that we have to be aware of is timing. So the way that things work in the UK is typically we don't find out about a crime occurring sometimes until very many…
Intel Update · 2021-11-03

Nov 3 Intel Update: A Game of Chicken

…such a hole and they've been doubling down this entire time that they're kind of softly backing away however at the same time they're also doubling down so in some areas they're…
Intel Update · 2026-06-06

Intel Update - June 6 - Mowing the Lawn

…Aragi has talked about this many times over the past few weeks. They don't want to slip into this situation where their nation is subjected to an operation midnight hammer every six months or so…
Intel Update · 2025-10-04

Intel Update - October 4 - Democracy Manifest

…I get these messages from people all the time that say, "Look, my church is very vulnerable, and the church is not interested uh even paying attention to these security risks. We've had people who…
Intel Update · 2026-05-23

Intel Update - May 23 - Dwindling Options

…And they've proven time and time again they're not interested in listening to us. So, that's what makes this hard. That's why we have to kind of prepare for things that are…
ATAK / WinTAK · 2026-05-05

ATAK: Getting Started

…You've just pulled up in the parking lot, go, right? Most of the time, you're probably going to have internet access. This is 2026. Most search and rescue teams, most private people, even who…
Intel Update · 2022-07-10

10 July Intel Update: Hot Fires, Cold Houses

…go to the east central midwestern region which of course again not very much going on this time around but there was a fire metal processing facility i think this one is very vague again more…
Intel Update · 2021-09-15

15 Sep Intel Update: Strategic Moves

…are promoting it as it was a good thing sort of like that time magazine article that that uh you know time magazine spent this it spent the entire like six month period uh after the…
The Wire · 2024-05-26

The Wire GRINTSUM: Spies, Helicopters, and Taiwan

icator is weather uh the typhoon season is usually well the most severe one is August September time frame so if they're going to do it it's going to be like sometime soon also…
Intel Update · 2026-01-03

Intel Update - Jan. 3 - Mostly-Peaceful War

…Anyway, stale slide this week, but the Grand Flotillaa off the coast of Venezuela is quite obviously still there and probably will be for some time. All right, moving down into the regions for this week…
Intel Update · 2026-06-13

Intel Update - June 13 - The Boiling Frog

ures or anything like that, but again from an academic perspective, Northern Ireland is one of the top probably five histories of the world to study to understand how things can develop over time. So again…
Intel Update · 2024-07-13

Intel Update - July 13: Powerpoint, Parliament, and Power Projection

…time they want to amplify the influence the Communists have in France so the fact that there is a French Communist party is probably disconcerting to the American taxpayer just because we have a hard time…
Intel Update · 2022-08-10

10 August Intel Update: Domestic Diplomacy

…and move on to international issues so again this brief is quite haphazard this time i haven't really had time to talk about sri lanka or india just yet but it looks like the famine…
S2 Book Club · 2024-01-04

S2 Book Club: Endurance: Shackleton's Incredible Voyage by Alfred Lansing

forces that we almost always underestimate especially in our modern times right reading through this book in sort of a passive way really sets you to thinking about how hypothermia and other cold injuries will really…