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S2 briefing · 2023-08-20

Battle Tracking Basics

[Music] [Music] we all know the scene Krusty General's stand hunched over a map table contemplating their next move while their team buzzes about shoving the latest Telegram in their hand and constantly updating the little Flags marching across the battlefield much like the concept of the Tactical Operations Center Hollywood has put these images in our minds to demonstrate a very important task of a higher headquarters element battle tracking so what is battle tracking and is this something that might be helpful for the average citizen living in today's strange and confusing world let's find out at its simplest battle tracking is simply putting information on a map mostly pertaining to tracking military units as they move across the battlefield going back as far as Antiquity to the origins of warfare itself battle tracking was quite literally done in person from a Hilltop adjacent to the battlefield the generals could use to visually see the battle space below of course as time went on and we moved through the generations of warfare commanders who might have been at a disadvantage in numbers began to use terrain to even the odds the cunning use of terrain is one of the major reasons why Alexander the Great was able to conquer most of the ancient world terrain was also the main reason that Wellington outfoxed the emperor himself in defeating Napoleon Bonaparte at the infamous Battle of Waterloo so terrain is very important but from a command and control perspective using terrain can lead to a lot of problems in short if your general cannot sit on a hill and directly see your unit's Penance your general does not know where you are or how things are going so what else is therefore a general to do but use Ford observers to find out where his own troops are where the enemy is and plot all of this information on a map over time as more and more battles began being fought in terrain that restricts direct view of troops Maps were used to show where everything was on the battlefield as the technology of warfare developed and World War One brought strange new Horrors to modern war maps increasingly took a much larger role over over the direct observation of troops and thus the concept of the General's camp on a Hilltop shifted more to an underground or fortified Dugout from which generals could use maps and telephones to conduct the war away from artillery from this we can see the beginnings of the Tactical operations center and really starting with World War one we can see the battle staff emerge with various staff members being tasked with updating the General's map constantly as the front lines shifted during battle though this is certainly more of a military subject as we have seen over the past few years of riots and actual open Warfare in the streets the concept of battle tracking is desperately important for local citizens to understand this is something that every prepared citizen needs to be capable of Because by the time the average person needs to battle track life-changing events in their area it will already be too late to learn these skills as such one might think that the first step to modern day battle tracking is to get a map which is actually the Second Step the the first step is to memorize a lot of boring stuff mostly the symbols you're going to put on the map right up front before the crisis know your symbology this is the hardest part because you basically have to memorize a lot of different shapes markers and icons but as boring as it is you need to know at least the general outline of how things work your battle tracking skills are of no use if no one can understand the information on your map generally speaking here are the basics of the American Mill standard 2525 this is the most common set of standard shapes and markers that are used throughout the world this standard has been in place for many many years generally speaking blue rectangles are friendly units red diamonds are enemy units green squares are neutral units and yellow Clover shapes are unknown or sometimes civilian units as we can see there's a few things going on here we've got the shape and the color and they both matter this is important to remember as we move along because even though this is a rigid standard in practice there is a lot of variation to these symbols within the shape inside the shape we have indicators of what kind of unit this is the most common are infantry units which are designated with a large x in the middle of the shape and of course this can change this is what a medical unit looks like and here is an armored Cavalry unit and so on it's up to you to memorize these on your own which is why I would highly recommend purchasing a physical copy of the battle staff smart book this book has all of the major symbols within it and it's very easy to study but anyway we can see that the interior shapes whatever they are do not change based on Allegiance for instance here is a friendly mechanized infantry unit and here is an enemy mechanized infantry unit same symbol on the inside but the exterior shape and the color has changed now here's something that complicates things a bit more that shape that that rectangle that we've been talking about that is meant to designate Ground Forces but what about aircraft or naval ships or spacecraft well the shape changes for that too so here are a few examples as we can see the top of the shape reminds us of whether the unit is hostile or not and the bottom of the symbol helps us remember whether or not it's a ground force Aviation navel or whatever and of course remember the interior symbols remain the same no matter how the exterior shape or the color changes this takes a while to get kind of used to but it's pretty simple once you understand the basics of it but let me throw another wrench into the engine here and we'll confuse you a little bit more speaking of that exterior shape sometimes military battle trackers break the rules and confuse things so let me explain in case you happen to see something different we already know that a blue rectangle with an X in the middle is a friendly ground infantry unit pretty easy right now what about this unit what's going on here well in practice it's sometimes easier or it's usually easier to draw a rectangle instead of a diamond so throughout many military Publications and throughout a lot of historical Maps as we can see you will find all ground units being designated by rectangles with their color designating Allegiance therefore the rule of thumb is no matter the shape the color always takes precedent if it's red it's bad guys if it's blue it's friendly I personally always try to go by color and shape the way you're supposed to based on the standard but a lot of US Army Publications don't do this so just be advised that if everything on your map is a rectangle you have to go by color so let's practice a little bit you can pause the video now and we'll begin talking about each of these symbols so first up we've got kind of a familiar shape right we've got the the blue rectangle with an X in the middle so we already know that this is going to be some kind of infantry unit net that's friendly but down here in the center uh center of the shape at the bottom we have what's called a modifier so we know that this is a friendly infantry unit but what kind of infantry in this case we have the little uh seagull shape a little bird shape right so we know that this is going to be a friendly Airborne infantry unit and if we're looking for size we can look at the very top and see the echelon modifier which tells how big this unit is in this case uh the two vertical lines there dictate a battalion so this is a friendly Airborne infantry battalion up next is a little bit of an easier one uh this one we have a square which is green so we know that this is going to be a neutral unit and the symbol in the middle is just the letters MP so this one we can kind of easily remember as military police so this is a neutral military police unit of ununknown size because we don't have an Echelon modifier moving on down the line the next one is a little bit more difficult we know that this is hostile right because we have the diamond shape and the color red so we know that this is a hostile unit of some kind but what is this symbol what is this this large m shape or a zigzag line however you want to describe it this one you're really just kind of have to memorize this is a pack animal like a mule or a horse or something that's going to be transporting cargo so this is a hostile pack animal and finally we have another kind of confusing one that ordinarily you would never be able to really see but if you followed our briefings on a recent incident of geopolitical Interest this one might be a little bit more familiar to you so we know for instance right up front that this is a hostile unit because it's red so it's going to be hostile no matter what right but it's not a diamond shape or rather the diamond shape is on the top so we know it's not a ground unit from the vertical lines going down to the bottom of the shape and the lack of a line on the bottom just kind of like an open bottom we know that this is going to be an aerial unit so this is an enemy aerial unit and you might have guessed from the symbol on the inside this is a lighter than aircraft a a balloon so this is a hostile aerial balloon pretty neat little symbols that uh have gotten a lot of use slightly once you practice this a bit it will become second nature of course keeping a guidebook on hand is important just in case you stumble upon a really weird or rare symbol that you haven't memorized yet as a side note if you happen to use really rare or obscure symbology I would recommend writing a note in plain English next to the symbol helping people know what it is combat is not the time to be playing Stomp the chomp and nobody is going to be impressed with you for knowing an obscure symbol the goal is to have a transparent view of the battle space with no confusion and you don't want your commander to have to break out a book and look flip through pictures to figure out what the symbol means so if you have to bend the standardized rules a bit by placing a few labels so be it but now we can move on to the map which is how we're going to start tracking now we can can see why having good maps is important we need maps of a scale appropriate to the area that we're trying to battle track in if there's a riot in a city we need to have a map of the whole city if there's an invasion of some kind or some kind of lockdown scenario throughout a region we need a map of you guessed it the whole region even if we're in a small observation post we can use a spare range card to battle track if need be but at this small level we probably should be focused on observation and security but again it depends on the mission at hand this is why I like to have maps of varying scales available like clockwork Murphy's Law strikes win least desirable so whenever you need a map you either won't have one or my personal favorite it will be at the wrong scale so we've got our map but before we get into the meat and potatoes of battle tracking a quick note on ipv or intelligence preparation of the battle space A lot of times I would say probably most of the time an event is going to go down somewhere in the world that's going to require you to battle track it and you're not going to have any ipv products pre-made for that area you can get your map set up but you are probably not going to have studied this area before so quite literally all you have is a blank map if you have that that's okay we can build this out as we get familiar with the area we don't necessarily want to use the cop for our ipb work but we can make helpful additions as we find out information to the situation at hand but for now since we're probably in a hurry let's move right to Blue Force tracking this is exactly as simple as it sounds tracking blue forces tracking friendly forces it's just putting all of your friendly units on the map and constantly updating their positions as they move across the battle space back in the day this was done automatically on a completely dedicated system called a blue Force tracker basically a computer system installed in vehicles and command posts that allowed units to track each other this system is still very much in use today but back before the days of modern system items the bft was an impressive development in the field of warfare even if soldiers remember it being a constant headache to work with these days the high-speed low drag tactical solution is ATAC ATAC has replaced traditional bft systems in a lot of units but a lot of units are still using old-school bft trackers for the most part but the future is definitely ATAC which automates Blue Force tracking so that nobody has to physically move an icon across the map so Blue Force tracking sounds pretty simple just put your guys on the map right well in the real world it gets a bit more difficult than that which we'll get into in a moment the other side of the coin is red Force tracking This Is The Stuff Intel guys should be doing this is why having an intelligence function is important and by default why it's important to have reliable information sources think about how many people on the internet have been battle tracking the Ukrainian war and how many of them have been incorrect myself included that's because open source intelligence can only get you so far and that is the only type of intelligence that is going to be available to the general public so battle tracking an event where you don't have reliable information is kind of a farce I get it it's not easy especially in a world where most open source Intel is heavily skewed if not outright faults no matter the case sometimes our best simply isn't good enough so we have to account for that when battle tracking when battle tracking more local events things that you have you know more of a stake in things don't necessarily become easier but the ability to collect information yourself it's on the table now collecting your own information via radio scanner software-defined radios or sdrs or even small quadcopters or other drones or even just a straight up observation post this organized intelligence collection is usually a lot more accurate than anything you'll find on the internet again in every single operations center I've worked in both Blue Force tracking and red Force tracking fell on the S2 shop because Ops didn't want to do it since Intel is regrettably sometimes a redheaded stepchild of the the battle staff the S2 guys get saddled with work that isn't technically their job but anyway though my team constantly grumbled about it I never really minded this personally because if the S2 shop didn't track everyone all at once the S3 would task a random soldier with it who probably wouldn't do it right so tracking everyone all at once was pretty much what I've had to do in the past this is important to mention because tracking red forces is not easy the bad guys don't radio in their position to your talk you have to go find them or at least guess where they're at or what they're doing that's why that big purple K tends to get slapped everywhere on maps the icon for key terrain though key terrain gets way overused and used improperly it's a very quick way to say hey this would be a great spot for activities either for the bad guys or for us this terrain is key now let's break this down a bit further when it comes to physically putting things on the map there are a couple of ways you can do this what we do not want to do however is draw directly on the map for many reasons I guess technically you could use a pencil and just erase your markings if you need to move something around this is historically what has been done many many years ago before we had the invention of things like Plastics right historically using a pencil to write on a paper map has been done however we've got better ways of doing things today usually what we want to do is use an overlay of a thin sheet of plastic like I mentioned earlier this is mostly what the military does overlays the map with a clear sheet of plastic so that your nodes and scribbles can be erased and it allows you to use colored markers as opposed to using just a pencil which is going to be you know just one color if you're going to draw on an overlay there are a couple of things that can help for one you can get yourself one or two of these kinds of stencils you can find these online rather overpriced but they are quite handy for drawing neat little boxes this one right here even has the features of a goo horse stick for all of you old school folks out there who remember those one thing to remember when buying a lot of this stuff is that terrain model gear tends to be Chinese made and in classic fashion the Communist manufacturing sector is almost entirely based on stealing other people's designs this becomes hilarious because they don't often know or understand what something is used for when they copy things so for instance sometimes the stencil shapes will be backwards or the labels will be on the wrong side so you've got to constantly flip back and forth if you're trying to make everything be correct a lot of times the proportions will be wrong or the stencil holes will be too small for any riding Implement because remember they are making these off of bootleg photos from products that were originally issued by the government or sold in the PX on base so just be aware of that when you're looking around you might have to buy several of these until you find one that actually works as for me my bootleg Chinese grade stencils work okay enough for me another helpful thing you will obviously need are markers for battle tracking purposes I prefer wet erase markers so that the riding is a bit more durable and just won't wipe away I also like to either write on or use a label maker to label the colors of each marker so that I can pick them out under red light conditions speaking of red light conditions you might want to select a marker for red forces that is a bit off red or just use black because under red light red text is invisible right so if you're going to be switching back and forth between normal white light and red light your map icons disappearing can be pretty frustrating for flexibility purposes I usually prefer the other main way of putting icons on the map unless of course I've got to remain mobile if I'm working you know out of a vehicle and I've only just got my map board to work from of course I'm going to be drawing on that map board drawing on the Plexiglas you know like like you're supposed to right but for a fixed position where you can lay a map out on a table I like to use laminated icons that I print out myself any good S2 shop should have a shoebox full of these but you can easily make your own on the back of each little marker I like to glue either a penny or a small magnet the penny helps weigh down the small slip of paper so that it won't blow away easily in the wind or in case you know somebody walks by the map table and like their shirt catches the edge of the map or something you don't want all of your your symbols just you know kind of blowing away gluing a magnet on the back will do the same thing but also make it so that you can stick these symbols to a magnetic white board this is pretty helpful for wargaming or for practice or whatever the reason you might want to go with a penny instead the the non-magnetic option is if you have to place a lot of these symbols right next to each other the magnets might want to stick together and generally just might be kind of frustrating to use whatever you choose both the magnet or the penny help Elevate the symbol so that it's easier to grab and pick up off the table instead of laying flush on the surface seems like it's really not worth mentioning but man and this is frustrating and so really putting anything on the back of these pieces of paper adds a little bit of thickness so they're easier to to pick up I also keep a lot of plain symbols without anything on the back just in case I need to improvise something on the Fly it's easier to staple these to a popsicle stick and you know stick them in the ground rather than having to peel off a magnet or something I like to keep these stored in my map case which has a three ring binder to accept these sheet protectors that are meant to store like baseball cards I use a label maker to label each pocket so that if I have to yell across a talk for somebody to hand me a symbol they can find it easily it also helps me when I'm not thinking too clearly or are super tired you know the drill gross motor movements are key and labels help prevent any confusion you don't need to make thousands of symbols just a couple of sheets of the most common symbols will do you don't need to go absolutely crazy and print out all you know 50 000 of these symbols anything special can be improvised on the Fly by drawing on blank symbology icons this is what I do most of the time anyway if I'm not making custom symbols myself I usually just use the blank ones and then fill in the interior as needed so you might ask okay where do I get these symbols hasn't somebody already done this the answer is yes uh active duty folks have access to what we call the moag the mother of all Graphics this is a rather Infamous PowerPoint file that has pretty much every battle tracking graphic pre-made this makes it easy to cut and paste into your own PowerPoints now if you search around the internet you will probably find various versions of this PowerPoint but it's not widely available to we lowly peasants you need to have a login to be able to get to get to this PowerPoint it's mostly just hosted on nippernet sites so unless you're you know in the military you're not gonna have access to this the good news is that we have something better I prefer to use this website spatial Illusions this comes from a soul developer who has created an online tool to generate symbology icons all for free if you want you can support the developer by donating and if you donate 40 Euro you get a license code to run this entire website offline very handy for non-networked computers so that's basically where you can get your symbols to print out at home you can find or make your own version of the moag or you can use the free spatial Illusions tools it's up to you I use the spatial Illusions generator and just paste the icons into a PowerPoint slide so that it's easy to print out and so that I have it for the inevitable PowerPoint briefing anyway other stuff you might want to have in your terrain model kit includes the following like I mentioned earlier popsicle sticks are pretty handy mostly for terrain models so that you can stick them in the ground but you can also use them to outline roads show points of interest and so on various kinds of string or yarn can help delineate front lines key terrain fields of observation stuff like that usually you're going to need at least red or blue probably black as well to outline stuff like roads and purple for key terrain sometimes you'll see yellow for fires kind of stuff you know for targeting sort of stuff and orange as well for stuff that are like obstacles but there's really no standard for what different kinds of colors mean other than kind of like the generic red and blue so just get a multi-pack of whatever kinds of yarn you want and just be clear to delineate what these are you can use Little slice of paper to to label what the yarn means once you have it on your map some kind of pointing device so that you don't have to you know lean all the way over a map and point with your finger at something I used to love laser pointers uh these used to be the industry standard when I was working professionally as an analyst everyone had a green laser pointer in their pocket nowadays and towards the end of my professional career I found that laser pointers are just too distracting for the masses these days uh basically I started having an entire audience of cats with zero attention spans so since then I have switched back to the old standby and now use just regular collapsible pointers a map protractor is pretty helpful uh just because nobody tends to have an extra one on them when it comes time to make the map or make the terrain model so having an extra is always handy make sure you get the ones with dual scales for one to twenty four thousand and one to twenty five thousand uh so they work with civilian Maps as well as military Maps remember in the civilian World we're probably not going to be using military Maps we're going to be using like USGS maps which are one usually one to twenty four thousand various construction tools like nails screws push pins thumbtacks duct tape stuff like that all of this is very helpful to improvise various things on the fly or to help attach Maps or markers of some kind to a you know wall if you wanted to hang things vertically I also keep a stapler handy just because you're going to need one and even this tiny one is a little bit too bulky for my map case so it kind of lives in the terrain model stuff it's also really handy for stapling icons to popsicle sticks if you wanted to do that for like a Terrain model spare range cards are pretty handy to have because you can ask your dudes to bring along their range cards for from their positions and you can copy down that information to your own range cards which makes it really helpful to be a lot more accurate when depicting fields of fire on your map a rather odd Edition are random blocks of wood these are basically squares of two by fours cut off to make blocks that represent buildings obviously this is for a large scale terrain model and not so much a map table so I personally do not use these often at all but we do have a box of these in the office just in case I need to make a larger scale terrain model on the ground or something like that this is really more of a special case thing that I keep separate from the rest of my small scale terrain model stuff and finally a lot of pre-made icons have usually found a home in my kit over the years you can buy terrain model kits online and for the military guys they are sold at every PX at least the small scale ones are these are way way overpriced and I do not recommend them it's better to just make your own but despite this I have found myself sometimes unprepared over the years and needing to buy a pre-made kit so I tend to have a lot of leftovers from Scavenging other kits you don't need to nerd out on this stuff too hard you'd be surprised at how little you need to battle track a small Ziploc bag of small laminated paper icons will get you a long way and it takes up almost no space or weight these are a great addition to pretty much any map case now we can see that a plan is coming together we should have a fairly full map that is constantly being updated by all parties involved a map showing where the good guys are and where the bad guys are likely to be but battle tracking is a little bit more than just that in addition to doing this stuff on a map you might want to consider having an event log if you have the time and Personnel to dedicate to this it would be a really good idea to have a chronological log of events this is usually super simple it can be an Excel spreadsheet or it can be a physical paper log like a deck log or a staff duty log all that goes into this is the time of day and whatever event occurred you can be as in-depth or as simple as you like but really this event log is used for two purposes one so that commanders and people in leadership positions can at a glance see what has happened since they stepped out of the talk the other main use is to remind people in the talk of what time something happened it sounds stupid simple and it really is but you'd be surprised at how many people will forget when a Medevac call dropped or when an engagement happened in the Heat of the Moment nobody is looking at their watch so it's helpful to dedicate one person to write all this stuff down as it happens another use of an event log is more forensic in nature sometimes when things go sideways and there's going to be an investigation later we need to have a detailed down to the minute log of exactly what happened we need to know what everyone knew at that time and how information flowed throughout the operation usually the person dedicated to do this will be the assistant to whomever is on radio watch usually you want at least two people manning the radio so that one can do the talking and another can do the riding so it's not too much extra work to just keep the log and a format that everyone finds useful not just for radio stuff however again in the real world this often doesn't get done and a lot of time the operations out of the house can't or won't spare an extra person to keep an event log so sometimes this job falls to the Intel dudes who usually have a lot of extra white boards and large format paper to display the data anyway so we can see that this is a very fluid process it's constantly changing and it is going to change a lot based on the skills of the people that you know you have around you right if people are just not really up to the task of doing certain things it doesn't matter what the manual says it's got to get done somehow and sometimes the people who are not best suited for a job have to do the job anyway everyone has their own personal battle tracking habits but I will share some of mine in case it helps one of the major things that I do because very few other people do it is constantly search for hlz's or helicopter landing zones even though this is part of the mission planning process as part of met TC right I am always on the lookout for helicopter landing zones as close to the Ground Force as possible of course you need to have a lot of knowledge on this it's not as simple as finding a large open space that you think a helicopter can land at you need to consider altitude above sea level and know the general characteristics of your helicopter's engines to know if it's even possible to fly there with a certain amount of weight and fuel you need slope analysis of the potential hlz to determine if a bird can land there or if this is going to be a pinnacle Landing or even worse a hoist if it's a hoist Mission you need to consider obstacles visual aids for the pilots to to look at as they're trying to hold hover and as an Intel guy you need to consider line of sight analysis from the altitude above ground that the helicopter is going to hover at so that you can tell if they're going to hover at this altitude at this location at this grid who's going to be able to see them or shoot at them if it's a small hlz you need to think about the security of the orbiting sister ship that's going to have to orbit are they going to get shot at because they're you know doing donuts in the sky up there and they're a fat juicy Target so are they going to have to hold station a couple miles away that adds in more fuel consumption adds in more time and it's another place wherever they're going to have to orbit that's a whole other place that you've got to do analysis for to figure out where the bad guys are at on the ground I'm constantly thinking okay once the ground force gets to this tree line here the only Medevac that can be done is Hoist if that but if they take contact from this building over here that Medevac hlz that we plan for can't be used so we need another one like right now as we can see this is a very big thing to think about and it happens quite a lot this is a constant thought process and I personally tend to obsess over finding suitable hlz's it's just a habit that I've developed that probably isn't that useful for me anymore but now I also do the same thing with eager address routes by land we've all heard the phrase never enter a room until you know how you're going to get out of it again same thing applies in the woods or really any place where World War III is currently being fought so this is always at the front of my mind to update as a ground force makes their way through an area always keep looking for a way out just in case you need it directly related to the previous bullet point always keep Medical on the line nobody keeps the medical folks updated on the mission as it goes on so if you are in a talk and you have dedicated medical personnel that need to be informed get your rear end out of your seat and go brief them intelligence and medical needs to be in lockstep with each other and I honestly don't know why this relationship always tends to get neglected in the military but it does many times I've had to run out to the parking pad to give dust off Pilots a heads up that the ground force is getting ready to go into a pretty hairy area they always appreciate the heads up because most of the time the Intel picture that the medical guys have can comes from monitoring the radio which is not even a fraction of the whole picture during an operation when the operations guys go to work the Intel guys for the most part are pretty much done except for battle tracking and stuff like that unless something goes sideways really badly Intel should really be just invested in monitoring changes because the bulk of the S2 Shop's work is done since this is the case it makes no sense to neglect medical these guys need to know what's going on which routes to take where the bad guys are at if helicopters have been a priority for them do the bad guys do we think that they have night vision now or thermal or stuff like that and so on from my own experiences overseas many lives have been saved by simply an Intel guy walking out of the talk and out to the Medevac birds and casually chatting with the pilots and the crew chiefs for a minute or two it sounds like it wouldn't be that big of a deal but in the medical world seconds count and these guys can use all of the advanced warning they can get on the prepared citizen side of things this is even more important I don't know about anybody else but I don't have a Medevac Chopper on standby for when I go out into the woods so everything becomes more casual and simple but even more important if you are planning for a riot to break out in your city or even a major military action like a lockdown or something a key part of your team will be medical personnel and by that I mean anybody that isn't fighting but is otherwise physically capable is a stretcher Bearer again pointing to the importance of those whose role is not in combat friends and family who aren't physically able to fight or they have to care for children or otherwise are not on the front lines these people can certainly feel very important roles like medical as we can see this goes beyond the scope of battle tracking as medical personnel need to be kept in the loop regarding enemy tactics too if enemies in a local area are known to use certain kinds of weapons like chemical weapons white phosphorus red phosphorus or even incendiary Munitions cluster Munitions things like that the Medics need to know this so they can plan and equip themselves accordingly so that they have an idea of what kinds of wounds or injuries to expect so if you've got an improvised Clinic set up in your kitchen it would be a good idea to keep everyone including those tasks with medical needs on the same page moving back to the more battle tracking side of things it would be very very helpful to make notes reminding yourself to check positions of units if you don't have any way of tracking units automatically a lot of times friendly units will not explicitly State their position and they get annoyed when some Pogue back in the talk asks them where they're at on the radio what they don't know is that Pogue in the talk is plotting their grid pre-planning a Medevac hlz for them as they move in case something happens a lot of times talk people look out for the ground force way more than the ground force realizes and all of this is dependent on the ground Force's location I've seen some pretty bad stuff happen to units who did not report their position for a while and suddenly they're in a troops in contact or a tick situation equation now back in the talk we've got to figure out where they are find them a Medevac route let the Medevac people know the Hasty situation and generally be more unprepared than we otherwise would have been if the dang Ground Force told us where they were considering most prepared citizen groups will not have blue Force trackers and probably will not be using ATAC in a network keeping the talk updated with position data is very important and since that probably won't happen anyway it's the Talk's job to pull that information whenever they can you don't need to annoy the ground force every 60 seconds asking for a position report but hey if you know 10 minutes goes by and they haven't said anything you need to figure out where they're at another thing to remember is to not forget other domains looking at a map of the Earth's surface it is easy to forget the air sea and even space some information relevant to battle tracking it cannot be tied to a specific GPS coordinate so having a supplementary information board off to the side of the main map this can help with a lot of pertinent but generalized information so you can have your main map and then off to one side you could have your event log and on the other side of the map you could have just like General stuff that people should probably know this is especially important for keeping tabs on what we call the enemy electronic order of battle or EOB unlike a traditional order of battle which is basically just a list of all of the equipment and forces a unit has and EOB is more capabilities focused jamming GPS spoofing and other electronic warfare capabilities they need to be accounted for here too even if we can't physically put them on the map another topic which is honestly more of a debate but it needs to be addressed when we talk about battle tracking and that is the idea of decentralization generally decentralization can help but be careful right up front I want to say the decentralizing battle tracking efforts is generally a bad idea and can lead to very very bad things happening but it happens anyway and it might not be all that bad in the end this is pretty confusing so what does this mean decentralizing a common operational picture into several different maps in different areas sometimes happens generally you want a common picture right literally everybody sharing one large map if you've got multiple tracking Maps one map for blue forces one map for red forces it is easy to get confused and for unit positions to be out of date or be called into question it's just a horrifically bad mess but decentralizing the battle tracking happens anyway for instance people in different observation posts might be off the hook for what event is going on but they might start tracking the battle from their position I know that for me due to my role I battle track from wherever I am sometimes it's not effective but I do it anyway if I don't have a job to do if I'm stuck in the back of a vehicle away from the Talk's main Maps I'll battle track on my own map boards sometimes even a handheld GPS back in the day Garmin GPS unit served as my my team's own personal little battle tracking tool far more than I'd like to admit if you're going to decentralize battle tracking efforts to spread around the workload I would strongly recommend against splitting up red and blue forces this is something I saw in the Navy an awful lot and I understand why they do it it's just something that I personally just kind of Revolt at I always keep red and blue forces on the same map no matter what if you split them up you're going to have a bad time if you're going to split things up here's how I would recommend you do it you can track operations at different levels for instance if your city if your whole city was being invaded or locked down or whatever the talk can track the entire city the keeping you know larger unit sizes on the map so the talk is not going to track anything lower than like a battalion maybe a company right but if your cop is the size of an entire city you're not going to be putting down icons of individual vehicles or individual tanks right but the Hasty talk that's being run from somebody's living room they might want to take note of that because at their level their map is going to Encompass probably just their street and maybe the immediate surrounding area this is where decentralizing can be helpful and why we have talks at multiple levels of command a higher level very high level talk is not going to have some of the smaller units and a talk at the very lowest levels of command they're going to have a smaller area of operations a smaller talk at a lower level even if it's just one guy like me in the back seat of a car that one-man talk or observation post can report back to the larger higher level operations center they can report back with anything pertinent while at the same time battle tracking their very small view of the world nowadays I've upgrade related to various map boards to help my effort in addition to computerized options this way I can walk into any sized Operation Center from a from a very large headquarters element with hundreds of people in the talk down to a small Squad level room in somebody's house right so I can Flex depending on which size of operation I'm going to be working with right most of the time nowadays you know as a ordinary citizen I really go with much smaller level operations but I'm always prepared for if somebody out there is more organized than me I can easily plug into their system like With Disaster Response or something so all in all we can see that this decentralization may have a lot of use even if we don't want to admit it sometimes the people in the seat aren't the best people for the job and sometimes the talk the big headquarters talk just doesn't battle track very well water Finds Its Own level and I've seen people migrate to specific individuals offices because one guy in the back of the headquarters building was tracking the battle all better than the entire talk it sucks but it sometimes happens for me I tend to keep a sip a common intelligence picture separate from the main cop this is probably actually this is almost certainly a bad habit on my part but it's often necessary because I have so much information that is not necessary for the main tracking map my maps are a mess they tend to be quite cluttered I mean organized but still very cluttered with information and notes which isn't the best for a battle tracking map that should be as simple and accurate as possible but again you must remember that if you keep a separate tracking or planning map you cannot forget to update the main cop if you have something operationally meaningful too many people have died because some Intel weenie forgot to share life-altering intelligence don't be that guy that knows about the machine gun on the ridge but doesn't put it on the map another big debate in the battle tracking world is the idea of analog versus digital battle tracking with all of the tools at our disposal in today's world the question often comes up can we do all of this on our computers or phones in fact a lot of modern battle tracking has to be done on a computer or a phone because of how constantly data is updated a great example of this like I already mentioned is ATAC which takes care of Blue Force tracking automatically this can't be done on a map with a marker I mean it can but it requires a human to do it you know every 60 seconds dropping a new PIN right the dod at large has spent a lot of your tax dollars investing in Technologies like the old school Geeks dcgs palantir Gotham or palantir uh spin-off Gaia all of these are used to battle track among other things the dod is trying to make paper maps a thing of the past which in today's world is perhaps not entirely a bad idea except that in today's world it is a very bad idea as technology becomes more of a component of War Fair it also becomes a vulnerability yes stuff like ATAC is a huge benefit on the modern counterinsurgency battlefield but in GPS denied environments or places where a radio signal results in an artillery strike these tools that have so much power in the counterinsurgency world might end up getting us all killed if the situation is a little different as always everything is a balance and we don't need to completely change our entire Doctrine based on a case study or two I personally prefer to use both methods if the battle space permits and most importantly if people are actually using it ATAC is a great option I can tie a whole team together and know where everyone is at a glance that makes it easier to automate Blue Force tracking so that I can just focus on where the bad guys are however I also keep my physical paper maps updated too that way if I have to ditch my phone for some reason or if I have to go into a controlled space where cell phones are not allowed or it would generally be a bad idea to bring one in paper maps allow me to take my data wherever I need to is this duplication of effort yes is it necessary also yes a lot of the time I prefer doing things the old school way if possible not really for Nostalgia reasons but for the reasons that look if there's an old tactic that you still know about and is still you know decently popular the reason that that tactic has remained a commonality for such a long period of time is because it's it works of course we can't let Nostalgia let us make bad tactical decisions or lose capabilities simply because we want to to use an older way of doing things that may not be the best but I found that on the civilian side of things on the prepared citizen side of things where everything is analog anyway battle tracking with a map and a marker is about the same Effectiveness as some of the more high-tech options and sometimes that's all you've got even in 2023 it is like pulling teeth to get any prepared citizen to buy a radio and if we add in stuff like meshtastic and ATAC which is a little little bit more advanced than just you know buying an FRS radio or something like that that's just a bridge too far for a lot of people for for many reasons that are perfectly understandable like you know stuff breaking or not really being easy to set up but some reasons are really just laziness either way it's a reality and tracking an incident using digital methods while obviously offering a lot of capability they're just sometimes not an option in the civilian world as much as we might want them to be as a prepared citizen we have to work at the level of the lowest common denominator and sometimes that requires giving up capabilities it sucks but until more people become serious about being a prepared citizen in today's world until more people start stepping up we have to accept that the tip of the spear is sometimes a lonely place as for me I would recommend using technology as much as you can but don't let it become a liability and of course always be prepared to revert back to simple tried and true methods in case you have to all right everyone let's take a look at what a lot of these processes and stuff might look like in the real world using a real world example in a more unfiltered and raw kind of way so many of you understand and kind of know about what's going on in Niger right now uh and uh really throughout the whole West African region but I wanted to take this as and use this as an example because it's something that people are very unlikely to care about and it's something that is a little bit easier for me to both learn myself and test some of my own skills but also it's an easier way to show what a lot of this looks like in real time basically this is also a great example because I myself know very little about Western Africa I'm not an Africa expert by any means I uh only barely know about the United States involvement in Niger from a counter Insurgency perspective you know a lot of counter Isis counter Boko Haram actions going on in the north of the country and we have a very large uh drone base there but other than that it's a foreign topic to me so again I thought it would be a very good exercise to see for me what this more organic battle tracking would look like and and uh see if we're going to give up any capabilities so as we can see this is really just a good exercise all around and one of the ways this is a really good exercise is that I don't have the resources I need in typical fashion we have to sometimes battle track with the with the resources that we have and I don't have even half of the gear that I need my maps are not correct I don't have a lot of the instruments that I need to be a little bit more professional looking so this is exactly what somebody like me might do if they just grab their map case out of their rucksack and they're forced to kind of sit down and battle track an event especially one that is as large if we're talking like an international kind of event like this so so let me explain what I mean uh as we can see starting out fresh I have uh basically just my West African road map here now this is just as simple Michelin road map it's not the right scale this I don't even know what scale this is but it's in the millions I'm sure either way it's a very large scale map I need a much closer scale of a much smaller scale so that I'm not looking uh that this entire map is basically the battle space uh right now most of my icons and battle tracking efforts are
S2 briefing · 2022-08-26

Basic Tactical SIGINT: Tracking Aircraft and SDR Scanning

signals intelligence or signant is a pretty big topic intercepting the signals whizzing through the air is something that is not easy and historically mostly been relegated to militaries around the world however with recent conflicts around the world proving that a quick trip to a sporting goods store might be better than billions of dollars of military equipment the need for the average citizen to start getting acquainted with the field of signant has never been more important signals intelligence is really a broad term for several other types of intelligence under the second umbrella we have comment or Communications intelligence that is information related to adversarial Communications that can be processed into valuable intelligence comment is usually what everyone thinks of when we talk about Sig wir Taps Stingray devices iom chatter or intercepted Communications chatter all of this is comment under the Sant umbrella we also have elent or electronic intelligence this is mostly referring to Sig that isn't specifically related to Communications things like radar signatures aircraft transponders GPS beacons things like that we also have various other inss that sort of overlap with Sig at times masint or measurements and signatures intelligence has a lot of overlap with elint in many cases Fant or foreign instrumentation signals intelligence has a lot of overlap with comment and elint as well and telent or Telemetry intelligence has a lot in common with elent such as for drone tracking or collections pertaining to ballistic missiles as we can see however we want to slice it and with whatever new ins that they come up with to fill a resume bullet point we're really talking the same language between all of these subsets of the intelligence field and if you don't know what any of this stuff is don't worry we don't need to know the minute details to have a broad understanding that there are a lot of signals being flung through the air and being able to intercept some of these signals is very helpful in a tactical environment for the average citizen so let's take a look at an ultra basic signant collection setup that will add a lot of capabilities for most people as always remember that this is just one way of doing things that you can scale as needed so what do you need to get started first off you really need some kind of computer laptop or tablet here in the shop we really like old school Panasonic tough books because they are really easy to find all over the Internet and since the parts are very interchangeable it's pretty easy to cannibalize Parts as needed or even build one from the ground up from spare parts the other main benefit is ruggedness the laptops even long after their intended service life are seriously durable tools almost all of the tough books that we have here in the office have tens of thousands of hours on them when we got them and they are still going strong the Panasonic line of toughbooks also have some very unique features such as a heating element for your hard drive very important if you're going to be operating in cold weather Panasonic also has several lines of tough Tablet PCs which I personally have been working with for a while because they allow you to be vastly more manp portable I can put this tablet in a chest rig and literally have cant collection tools running as I am on the move with no input for me whatsoever the only other way I know of to get this same capability is to get a Windows Surface tablet at some point I will be integrating one of these into my own setup because the processor is vastly better than these older devices but for now I prefer a tablet that can run Windows right from a chest rig now I know what you were thinking why not just use a phone or an Android tablet well the answer is pretty simple processing power and the software you can run SDR software from a phone this is very popular it it can be done and it is a great way to get started but you will rapidly find out that a lot of the more advanced software is just too much for the processors on phones and much of the software that we're going to be using is available for Windows only or the only reliable way to get various software packages to work together is to use the dreaded Windows operating system I personally don't like it I would much rather use Linux for this stuff but in many cases is trying to get Linux to work with a lot of this software is not that easy raspberry pies are also another option that I wanted to mention and I really think they're a great idea for some setups so we will be examining these kinds of setups in the future because there's a lot more to it if you're trying to run a Raspberry Pi but for most people just getting started never having worked with any of this stuff before just getting an SDR and plugging it into their laptop will be a great way to start and speaking of the next bit of Hardware that we need is the SDR device itself software defined radio dongles are pretty easy to find online and are usually pretty cheap as of right now most common sdrs go for about $30 to $40 depending on inflation most sdrs are pretty similar but there are a few that are more popular than others the most common is the standard RTL SDR which can often times be purchased as a kit with an antenna to get you started the other common sdrs are from nuac specifically the Nestor smart T versions these are very handy for adding on sawbird filters and amplifiers without having to run external power so if you want to eventually start receiving satellite imagery one of these might be the SDR for you but again for an ultra basic setup any SDR will do finally we need an antenna your choice of antenna will be determined by what kinds of signals you want to receive for the setup today you will need two antennas one antenna that is specifically for 1090 mahz you can find these online sometimes in a two pack paired with a 978 MHz antenna the 78 MHz antenna is for receiving different kinds of signals which we will cover later but for now really you just need the 1090 MHz antenna for our purposes today technically speaking you could probably just get by with unscrewing the antenna from your handheld radio if you have one and just using that to see if all of this works together but if you're really wanting to get the best possible range you're going to need an antenna specifically tuned for 1090 MHz which we'll cover in a bit the other antenna that you need is a simple V HF UHF whip antenna like I mentioned this could just be the one that you unscrewed from your handheld radio for just a second to test things out but that's basically what you need if you don't already have one of these you can get these pretty cheap as well I personally will be using a cattail antenna because that's what I already have routed through my gear but you can use a simple whip antenna to get you started if you wish just make sure that you are getting the right kind of SMA connector your SDR will probably have an SMA female connector so your antenna will need to have an SMA mail connector the side with the center pin this is important because some VHF UHF antennas have this reversed for some reason once you have all of your Hardware assembled your laptop your SDR and antenna we can start working on the software you need to make this stuff functional so let's jump to the desktop and we'll take it from there all right everyone so once we have our hardware and we've got our kit kind of set up the way we want it now we can start focusing on the software and this is going to be very easy but we need a a few different software packages to make this work the very first software package that you need is sdrsharp which we can download right here uh now I did want to show you how to download this because this might be a little bit tricky uh if you click the wrong thing you're going to be kind of frustrated SDR sharp comes in a few different versions and what you need is this one sdrsharp with Community plugins this is going to make everything work a lot better you can download the very first one that you're going to see on the page but this is just the SDR sharp a few drivers here and there but no plugins SDR sharp with Community plugins comes with a whole Suite of plugins that will make your life easier as many people find out when they start playing around with SDR software uh none of this stuff is really easy to get to work together and a lot of times what I have found is it's easier for me to just download the community plug-in version and delete the plugins that I don't need or just leave them in uh whereas if I download the regular version and try to manually put in plugins sometimes things don't work so well so always download the community plugins version at least that's what I do so just clicking download will allow you to download the file to wherever you want it to go the next piece of software you need is a program called RTL 1090 and as we can see by scrolling down the page here there are quite a few versions to choose from as well uh you could go with the standard version right here the very first one uh version one right there but uh most people I think will probably be using this one uh which includes the installer and maintenance utility basically it's a uh idiot proof way of setting this up so this is usually what I use because I'm kind of dumb with setting up this sort of software so this works out well for me one thing to note though is that if you do not use this you will need to configure this manually and you're going to need to uh install uh some other software to make that work so if you wanted to go with the normal version you can uh you can just download it there but if you go with the normal version you're going to need this software here called zadig this is going to allow your SDR device to communicate with your computer basically it's just a driver installer for your RTL SDR most sdrs when you plug them into windows it's going to automatically recognize it and install the wrong driver so uh you need to manually install the right driver using this uh program here the reason I wanted to mention this here is because if you already have experience using SDR software chances are you've probably already done this and you don't need the regular uh installer process you can just download this version here but if you're just getting started you've never plugged your SDR in go with this version if you use this you're going to be using this with a lot of other uh software packages for SDR so usually it's just handy to have that as well and the last piece of software I wanted to mention is plane plotter now plane plotter I should mention right up front is a paid Tool uh you can use this for free for 21 days but after that you need to buy a license to continue using the software I'm not a huge fan of this for obvious reasons we don't really want to rely on um paid kinds of software that that might have the potential for going down or offline uh if we're trying to use this long term however this is really the best plane tracking software that I have found to use with adsb tracking uh platforms this will make a lot of sense when I show you what you can do with plane plotter and I might do a whole video dedicated to this software uh but I did want to mentioned that this is not the only software you can use there are other adsb kind of virtual radar packages out there that display that can display your adsb data however this one is commercial software uh and it has a lot of very unique features that are not quite available in the freeware area just yet so if you wanted to use something else you can I just prefer this one because it has uh a couple of features that I'm personally willing to pay for but again it's up to you all right so once we've downloaded our software we should have three or four things depending on which version we went with uh we should have our Str Str sharp installer we should have the zip file from RTL 1090 with the IMU uh if you don't have the IMU part you're going to need this software the zodex and also our plane plotter so let's go ahead and start by installing sdrsharp it's a pretty simple installer we just go through the process uh we want to make sure to add the plugins and you can select which plugins you want uh I just choose them all because that's really the best way of doing things uh I'm going to install this directly to the C drive uh just because RTL software tends to work better directly from the root directory of your uh computer right so whichever Drive you're wanting to use you can install this stuff anywhere but usually it's best to leave it in your root directory just so you know so sdrsharp is going to be contacting the Internet it's also important to make sure that you have internet connection for this if you're trying to do this offline you're going to have to install sdrsharp using another connected computer to the internet and then dragging all these installation files over to the new computer that's offline if you like to do things kind of air gapped that way like like I do a lot of times you're going to need a thumb drive to transfer this stuff over because this installer package as we can see uses the internet to download all of the plugins that we need all right cool so sdrsharp is done installing we're going to go ahead and run it just all right so we're going to get a couple of pop-ups here for one it's going to open up a web browser uh in the background to take you to the community installer page and this is going to show you all of the plugins that it just installed that's not necessary it just kind of gets in the way you're also going to get a Windows alert if you're on the dreaded Windows platform uh to allow it access uh to the internet we don't necessarily need that right now so we're just going to cancel it not not necessary once you have sdrsharp installed there's a couple of different things you can do you can go ahead and use the zadig application here to install the driver for your SDR your actual radio that you're going to be plugging into your computer or you can go ahead and go with the RTL 1090 setup so let's go ahead and do that uh it's kind of simple either way so we can go ahead and close out sdrsharp for now bring back up our ZIP file for RTL 1090 we can extract this ZIP file let's go ahead and extract it here makes it a little easier and there's there's our exe for that so RTL 1090 is our program they we're going to be using to intercept and process adsb Transmissions so let's go ahead and install it so now we have an installer which can install this program wherever we want to right it makes it a little bit easier than having to deal with command line kind of stuff to install RTL 1090 so we're going to go with a new install and we can confirm the version that we want uh we want the version for Windows Vista 7 and 8 even though I'm on Windows 10 on this particular computer right now this will work just fine either way now we're going to choose installation directory and I and I want to put it somewhere uh different I want to put it directly into the C drive so so once we've got C drive selected we can click okay and we are downloading everything it's going through all of the processes to uh download and install a series of software uh including zadig which uh was downloaded before okay once we let RTL 1090 kind of do its thing we should have a couple of things pop up on our screen first one is Zig right here uh which if it did not pop up make sure that you uh have actually allowed administrator access for it you might have gotten a popup if it was on Windows uh I know I did a couple of times sometimes it doesn't but sometimes it does now I should note that sometimes this doesn't always happen sometimes this zodic menu won't pop up and sometimes it uh not even a notification will pop up either if that happens you might have to go through this whole process again and choose a different folder sometimes I found that I've installed this on about six different computers by now and I have found that sometimes uh installing RTL 1090 to the C drive doesn't doesn't work uh for some reason uh I don't know why it just doesn't uh so you might have to install it to like your desktop like just create a new folder on your desktop and install it there again I am not an IT guy by any means but a lot of this SDR software just kind of has a mind of its own sometimes so uh what you might have to do is install this to a different folder but but in any case once we're here we should be uh in the home stretch so we should have our zodic popping up here on the screen and we should also have and in the background uh the RTL IMU installer trying to give us instructions so move this off to the side a little bit so we can see both of these decently at the same time and we are ready to configure zodic so uh please insert your USB adsp dongle now and cancel and ignore all messages asking you to install a driver package so these are the instructions right uh this is trying to tell you to ignore what Windows is going to do which is install a driver for the USB device it's going to install the wrong driver so don't worry about canceling just let it do its thing and then we can work with it here later so we're all good to go I've plugged in my SDR to my computer and now we're ready to start configuring zodic here so let's click yes see it's it's kind of there it's trying to walk you through this uh zodic configuration because you can uh royally screw up something if you configure this wrong so let's continue through it all right so here here we go we've got the first picture showing us exactly what to do we go over here to Zig and we click options click list all devices now this is going to show all of the devices that are attached to our computer once we click yes and we are here at the device list we want to select the device that is interface zero bulk in comma interface interface Z this is the one we want now as you can see I've already done this because I use sdrs on this computer kind of a lot so we already have the driver installed basically what zodic does is it detects what drivers are installed and then installs new ones uh depending on what you want Now the default configuration uh is pretty good to go as is but let's continue following the instructions here we want to make sure that we're using the right configuration path right user ID make sure it all matches up as we can see we want to make sure that everything is absolutely perfect uh we should click reinstall driver just to make sure that we're all good to go once we click reinstall driver there it's going to install the driver now the application is going to freeze for just a second so you're going to have to give it just a second or two to think uh because it will it will uh freeze your whole computer for just like one or two seconds I've noticed that it does that on every computer that I've got so I don't know why but it does all right so there we go our driver's been installed successfully close we can make sure that we followed all the instructions you can close everything out now and we are are ready to go all right so we've installed RTL 1090 and we are good to go or so we thought so this is where you might want to start bashing your head against the keyboard because things get really complicated and kind of confusing really quickly this might be different for you uh but for me while making this video I have installed this uh software on five different laptops literally every single time getting the same exact error and that is that there's a missing dll so the so the more student of you might have noticed that once we went through the RTL 1090 IMU it failed to download a single dll file for whatever reason so if we were to go to our RTL 1090 folder which is right here this is the file that I installed all that too uh we can see that we've got RTL 1090 right here and if we CLI click the exe we're going to get this error here RTL sr. dll was not found reinstalling the program May fix this problem well what we need to do is find the dll file but fear not there are instructions thankfully this text file tells us exactly where we can download all of the missing dll files as we can see we're missing two dlls we're missing rtlsdr dll we have this one the msvcr100.dll that one's right there and we're missing the libusb -1.0 dll we're missing that one as well so we're missing two dll files that should have been installed but for whatever reason they weren't and I'm not sure why this error keeps happening but again like I mentioned I've tried this many times and it happens every time now here's the here's the unfortunate part you can take this uh URL and you can come to your handy dandy uh web browser put it in and you're going to get a 502 bad gateway or at least that's what I get every single time I've tried this and I don't know if this is due to the uh Russian sanctions uh due to the Ukrainian War because a lot of the RTL software is coming from Russian servers I don't know if that's related in any way but I've been getting this kind of a lot literally what I've been having to do this is kind of the workaround to your uh document here find that file name this seems to work really really well to kind of get around dead links a lot of times go back to Google drop it into the Google search bar and just Google it uh sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't but as we can see here it's from the same website osmocom dorg that was in our uh file here right so it's it's the same website and we click that and we have our ZIP file now I know this is really sketchy but this is kind of the way SDR software works a lot of times you got to go to really sketchy websites to get really obscure files to make your stuff work a lot of the a lot of the times and even though I'm following the instructions to the t uh it's not it doesn't work a lot of times so uh this is the workaround that I have found and once we download this file once once we click download we can just download that zip file very easily get rid of all this come back to where we downloaded and there it is Rel with deinfo do Zips all right so once we extract that folder we should get this one right here which when we go inside it we have two folders here depending on what kind of operating system you're running on you can choose either 32-bit version or 64-bit version now I should mention that I am running a 64-bit operating system right now but I have to use a 32-bit version for whatever reason so if one version doesn't work try the other and see if that will work for you so once we're in the 32-bit version here in my case I'm going to select the dll files that I need so I'm going ahead going to go ahead and select rt. sr. dll and the other one the USB dll as well then using the analyst favorite trick contrl C to copy back to our RTL 1090 folder and contrl +v to paste so now we have all of the dll files to make this uh program work and if we click the exe thank goodness there we go it works so this is RTL 1090 working good to go if you click Start now our uh software is up and running and we are already decoding uh or starting to intercept and decode uh message traffic so if we go to our table here we can now see the call signs of the aircraft that are flying overhead right now now uh one thing I should mention is is that you can actually visualize this data with the latest version of RTL 1090 so let's go ahead and stop this for a moment and let's go back to our internet browser where we can go back to the RTL 1090 page now if you were to once you have this all installed and good to go you can go back and download this version the RTL 1090 scope all right so if we downloaded the radar version with the scope on it uh all we have to to do is extract that to its own folder here in our uh same folder we've been working from uh just to make it things a little bit cleaner uh so this is what you get when you extract all that folder you're going to get your uh dat files for uh displaying things like airports and navigational AIDS and stuff like that also your exe file so we're going to so we're going to go ahead and drag all of these over or controll C and crl +v them into the uh destination folder so we're going to go ahead and might as well replace x file doesn't doesn't really matter too much and then we can start the beta version I'm just showing you this version because now you can have kind of a radar setup if that's what you wanted now this is where you can stop if you wish and just kind of visualize uh the aircraft as they appear around you now I know I'm moving kind of fast through this uh the reason being is that this is not really necessary this is a beta feature for RTL 1090 and it's it's pretty cool honestly rather than just having you know your table or your your list of aircraft right uh you have them actually plotted on a map for you that's really what we're going for right uh but within RTL 1090 this is not a super super useful feature that's why we're using plain plotter because plain plotter talks to RTL 1090 so now that we've got an RTL 1090 all working and good to go let's actually start using that with plan plotter one thing to remember before we proceed with installing plane plotter is to keep RTL 1090 running in the background this is very very important because we need information from RTL 1090 to feed into plane plotter during the installation process going back to our folder that we've been working out of it's very easy to install plane plotter we're just going to double click the exe file uh you're going to get another Windows trying to protect you from something that it doesn't need to protect you from run anyway now the first popup you're going to get is uh trying to tell you that the time for this particular computer is not as accurate for a lot of SDR software you actually need uh time management software to actually make sure that your PC clock is hyper accurate uh for multilateration this is absolutely needed uh but we'll talk about that much much further down the line uh for now we don't we don't need to worry about this for adsb kinds of stuff so we'll just go ahead and go through the setup wizard so I'm going to go ahead and install plane plotter instead of to the fold folder I've been working out of I'm going to install it to my C drive just because it tends to work better from there but again if it's buggy you can move it to a different folder uh to wherever it needs to go so I'm going to go ahead and install all this stuff clicking through it no problem there go through all this stuff install it cool now we're done with the installation and we can run plane plotter all right so we get a popup saying uh we've got our we're on day one of our 21-day free trial do you wish to register PL PL to keep using it I'm not going to register it right now but again I would kind of recommend it honestly in the long run because I find that plan plot has some features that I use uh more than anything else so again you can register it later if you wish uh but for now we're just going to go with the free version and we're going to get another popup that talks about a Google map don't worry about that for now uh we're going to be using the global base map so we're going to click okay and we're it's going to give us the configuration menu for our SDR do you want to configure plan plot to for your receiver now yes have you prepared and calibrated a local chart no uh it's going to tell us to choose globe. jpeg in the next dialogue this is just to get us started you can add in a aeronautical charts uh later on but we're just going to use the global uh one for now so here's our globe. jpeg this is going to be our background for our chart and there we go you can see it's kind of loaded in the background there okay now that we have have our background map uh our chart ready to go we're just using a simple Globe default chart once we have that good to go now we can start pulling in those feeds and that's why it was so important for us to leave RTL 1090 running in the background so if we have RTL 1090 running in the background we should still see that we're receiving packets uh as aircraft are flying by overhead that's all good to go um we can minimize this or just kind of move it out of the way and start going through the pl plotter process if you forget it's okay we can we can restart uh this menu let's just say for instance we forgot and uh we we exited the kind of setup wizard here that's perfectly fine we can go back to help uh Setup Wizard and run through the configuration uh again just to you know choosing our globe again and now we're back here to the same menu this is very helpful in case you you know get kind of tunnel visioned and start clicking a bunch of stuff because we're about to start clicking a lot of dialogue boxes that pop up and the first one is plan plotter wanting us to connect to some data so the first question it asks us is do you have a receiver connected to your PC whose output you want plain plotter to process we click yes the next question is do you have an adsb mode as receiver and then it starts listing all of these different receivers we're going to also click yes to this one now we're going to click no a bunch of times because we don't have uh it's trying to find out exactly what receiver we have so we don't have the kinetic sbs1 uh we don't have the airnav radar box plane Gadget we're going to click no until we get to uh it's just after AVR receiver I think yes until we get to RTL dongle do you have an RTL dongle connected we're going to answer yes to that one and the next question then is is the dongle connected using RTL 1090 utility again the answer is yes check the IP address and port for 10 RTL 1090 and then press okay so so we bring up our RTL 1090 and we see what port we're on in this case we're on Port 31001 and we can leave that running press okay and type in see it's it's going to default to the wrong Port so we want 3101 then click okay all right so start RTL 1090 processing the signals from the dongle and press okay all right cool we're already doing that plane plotter is now proc processing your chosen input next time you run remember to click the green button to start processing Okay cool so now plane plotter is working okay now that we've got RTL 1090 running in the background and plane plotter is all installed and good to go and everything's working together uh we need to do a couple of things to get plane plotter to work the very first thing that we need to do is update our home location so uh for me this default spot right here in Arkansas is what populated as the home location that I obviously don't live in Arkansas so um what we're going to do is go to options home location home location setup and you can put in your GPS coordinates here it doesn't need to be super precise but you do need to be kind of close to your actual location wherever you're going to be this is super super super important because otherwise your aircraft are not going to be plotting in the right spot on your map a lot of times once you get that done you can press your green button up here and aircraft should start appearing on your map as they are being uh intercepted by your SDR being processed by RTL 1090 and running from plane plotter now let's talk about some of the features that you can set up to actually use this in more of a tactical environment if you wanted to one of the things that makes this software package really cool is the ability to set alerts so let's just zoom in here to Arkansas and I'll refresh my map right here really quickly get a nice crisp image and let's go ahead and add in some alerts so I'll go to options alert we'll make a let's make an alert Zone here I'll add one and I will draw a nice little circle is around my site go back to options alert alert Zone and I will save that what you can do is set up these alert zones so that any aircraft that flies inside this circle you get an actual Al alert tone you get a notification uh you can set this to be a custom notification if you want that's very handy for some people but for me uh I think that this is probably a little bit more of a simplistic thing if you live in an area with a lot of traffic like I do there are aircraft everywhere filling the skies basically around my location what you might want to do is instead of setting up zones like this which you can you can play with on your own uh what you might want to do is instead of using these alerts here go down to conditional expressions and add an alert conditional expression now what this will do is it allows you to set very specific parameters that will trigger an alert so for example here in this example if the aircraft's range is less than 20 nautical miles and the altitude is less than 10,000 ft and the flight number is equal to whatever number you want it to be it will trigger an alert so let's go ahead and get kind of a rudimentary one going here let's say let's use a range again let say range double click it to add it to the thing or you could just type it out if you understand the the logic here is let's say range is less than 10 let's see and the let's go back and say altitude altitude is less than 10,000 ft that will be our notification so if I were to save this which I can do right now let me bring it back up there to talk about it a little bit this will send me an alert if an aircraft appears with in 10 miles of my location meaning that if they are less than 10 miles away from me and their altitude is less than 10,000 ft I can also add in a few other parameters such as different call signs and tail numbers and things like that if I want it to uh but for the most part this will probably get you going really uh really good so uh this is a very simple conditional expression so that you can basically have this running either on a Raspberry Pi or on a small tablet and you can be walking around doing your thing and when your antenna picks up an aircraft that is less than 10 miles away from you and less than 10,000 ft in altitude it will send you an audible alert very very handy because in most cases I don't really care about aircraft that are you know passenger aircraft that are flying at you know 35,000 ft not really interesting to me however if there is an aircraft that's you know kind of close to me and it's also flying Bel beneath a standard you know air Corridor that's interesting to me and I might want to know about that so using conditional Expressions you can be a lot more tactically capable in understanding what is going on around you and also be jogged to understand when you uh get a aircraft in your specific area and you can also set these conditional expressions for other things as well if you were to bring up the conditional Expressions menu you can decide what aircraft even make it onto the map if you don't want to track every single aircraft that you you can pick up with your antenna uh you can set conditional Expressions to dictate which aircraft even show up on your map in the first place that might be handy if you like live near an airport and you don't really care about 90% of the traffic that's flying around all the time uh but you are concerned about some of those aircraft you can set conditional Expressions to be very specific you can also set conditional Expressions to decide what gets displayed uh in logs and lists and things like that so very handy for kind of sorting down especially in hight trffic areas what kinds of aircraft you want to see one thing that might be also very handy for you if you're using alerts is to set what parameters or what data gets displayed with an alert so for instance let's go here to options alert alert Fields now this is the information that will be displayed on your screen when an alert goes off this is the default configuration here and I can change it however I want right so I'm not really so concerned about the hex code I do want flight number and registration though because the flight number will tell me what airline uh the aircraft is working with and registration if the aircraft is not part of a uh form formalized you know Airline commercial airline it it will tell me uh what the registration of that aircraft is uh very handy uh you can put the time tag as to when you receive the alert as well the speed all kinds of stuff alert Origins very handy to tell you what kind of alert it was that that triggered uh you being notified about this but one thing that might be very handy to have is adding in altitude so it actually displays the altitude of the aircraft and also range it will tell you how far away that aircraft is so you know you get a notification sound you know from your speaker or in your earbud you can look down at your tablet screen and see the notification which tells you everything you need to know what flight number it is uh if it's not a commercial aircraft what registration it is uh how far away it is from you and its altitude very very handy information to have at a quick glance something else very handy to display on the screen if you wanted to are range rings so let's go ahead and zoom in a little bit here uh to our current home location refresh our map to make it nice and crisp again and let's go to the map settings here now this chart options uh menu looks really busy and it kind of is but we're just going to go down here to the bottom where it says range Rings we can put them around our home location and let's put them out let's say let's say 50 miles and click okay there we go now I just drew uh range Rings 50 Mi out at one ring every uh 10 miles obviously all the way out from our location this is what most people will probably use because usually if you're talking about a a man portable uh adsb receiver setup you're not going to be able to pick up aircraft more than say 50 miles out or so uh in any direction uh if you're living in an area where you can get a very high antenna up or you're in uh some some high elevation areas you can certainly get much more you could probably cover a significant portion of the United States with just your small receiver but in any case this will work quite well to show you at a quick glance how far out a specific aircraft is something else that might be very very handy for you to add in is your polar diagram now this essentially shows you how far out your receiver is picking up aircraft basically in real time so it shows you which aircraft you're able to receive now to set this up let's go ahead and make things less confusing by let's get rid of that alert and clear that out so now we've just got our range rings and our home location to set up our polar diagram it's very very simple just go to view it's not under options it's under view polar diagram and then click plot max range now what that will do if you have aircraft being plotted on your map you will start to see a shape being drawn and if you hold still for long enough and you know don't move your antenna around a little bit it will start to calculate based on the aircraft that that it can hear how far out you can actually receive aircraft now normally when I you know turn on the uh polar diagram what I will do is leave the antenna in place and leave this entire setup running for about 24 hours or so to allow air enough aircraft to fly by that it plots exactly what the ranges are so so after a while you should have something that looks kind of like this this kind of like explosion style graphic and this shows you how far out your receiver can pick up aircraft and this will update in real time as you pick up more and more aircraft and as you move to positions where you might not have such a good view so you can literally walk all all day up and down mountains and at a moment's notice know exactly how far out you can hear aircraft if they were in the air that's very very handy because a lot of times in the radio world we don't actually know how far out we're transmitting or receiving right we might be behind valleys or things like that and we don't necessarily have the time to conduct line of sight analysis for every step that we take along a trail this software being a very capable professional grade software will do it automatically for you in real time so it will allow you to understand exactly how far out you can hear aircraft at a moment's notice that is very very handy to me and this feature alone makes it worth it uh over some of the other freear applications out there all right ladies and gentlemen so we are in the home stretch now we are almost done with our basic Sig setup for now to wrap things up on the software side of things let's go back and add in a simple plugin to sdrsharp and configure it so that it can work as a scanner this is a lot easier than configuring some of that Aviation tracking software all we have to do is bring up our SDR sharp uh menu here and as we can see this is just kind of the the base menu that you're going to get when you launch sdrsharp all we have to do again if we have loaded in the community plugins version of the software all we have to do is go to menu and search for a program or a plugin called frequency scanner there we go we've located frequency scanner in our plugins list all we have to do is click it and it will open up the window and kind of launch it for you there are far better scanning applications for sdrs uh this is arguably one of the simplest and easiest to use though so it will kind of get you in the understanding mode of how this stuff really works so all we're going to do is go over here to edit scan ranges click that and it will open up the menu for us here so let me go ahead and delete this one so I can show you what you'll see when you open it up for the first time and really all we're going to do is start adding in scan ranges remember this is a very basic very basic setup for uh scanning with an SDR if you don't have a a traditional handheld scanner or something like that so what we're going to do is just do the ultra basic stuff and program in a couple of different uh frequency ranges and the first one we'll do is just the 2 meter ham band so we'll start at uh we have to put this in in hertz as you can see here so just how it is in s strr sharp if you kind of forget how to convert megahertz to Hertz it's very simple so 144 there we go and we'll do the back end of the VHF uh to 2 met hand band there we go and we'll keep the detector the same that's the narrow band FM and since we're doing narrow band kind of stuff I want to keep this a little bit more narrow than it needs to be honestly and we'll keep the bandwidth at 5,000 along with our standard uh steps at 5,000 uh for most of your handbands I for VHF and UHF for 2 MERS and 70 CM I'm pretty sure the step size is basically 5,000 Hertz or 5 mehz on both of those bands uh the bandwidth can vary this is much more narrow than it needs to be uh but I want to make sure that I'm covering everything that that might uh be slightly off frequency remember a lot of the people that I'm going to try to be listening to are going to be probably uh shifting their frequency quite a bit or they're going to be wandering off of the frequency that they need to be because they're using um radios that are not quite up to FCC standard so um there we go we've got the 2 m hand band in and let's let's go ahead and put in 70 CM as well this is going to take care of most of our uh VHF and UHF Communications in the United States again the bandwidth here and the step size that I'm going with is a little bit more narrow than than it needs to be but that's okay uh basically what I'm doing here is setting up this scanner to allow me to scan both the VHF and UHF handbands uh for any kind of communications that people are going to be transmitting so roughly this this simple scanner and these simple uh scan ranges I've set up here are going to be able to detect the vast majority of communications that are going to be out there so there we go we've set up our scan ranges we can click okay we can add as many as we want but now we have them over here in our little menu and if we were to go ahead and click play we would see the scanner begin and scan away so let's recap and take a look at this basic setup in its entirety on the hardware side we have some basic gear we have have our laptop or in this case a tablet running on the Windows operating system that also has a USB port plugged into that USB port we have a generic SDR dongle which also has an antenna attached that is the proper antenna for what kinds of signals we want to listen to Chances Are you will need multiple antennas for different frequency ranges in this case we're using an antenna that is resonant on 1090 MHz and we're also using a flexible whip antenna that works on VHF and UHF frequencies and we can swap between the two antennas as the mission requires if we want to listen to aircraft we leave the 1090 MHz antenna installed if we want to start scanning VHF or UHF frequencies we will switch to a VHF or UHF antenna on the software side of things we are running SDR sharp because it's a very basic software package to get started with and it has a lot of plugins that we can take advantage of such as simple scanning logging and recording plugins we are also running RTL 1090 in conjunction with plane plotter to not only visualize aircraft overhead but also track and log them and even send us audible alerts when specific aircraft fly overhead or specific parameters are met with this setup we can eliminate a massive problem with Sig which is not knowing how far out you can receive aircraft if you are hiking along a trail and slowly find yourself coming into restricting terrain you might look down at your tablet and not see any aircraft on the map so you might think oh there just aren't any aircraft flying around overhead but in reality it's just a Terrain masking your ability to receive their adsb Transmissions with plane plotter you will know at a glance exactly how far out you can receive aircraft and this will update in real time as you travel so you will always know whether or not the lack of aircraft is really due to a lack of aircraft or because you can't pick them up due to terrain and finally we can add in some software that I have left off until now which is Artemis by Aries Valley emis is a simple bit of of software but it adds a lot of capability in short it allows you to identify what kinds of signals you can pick up on your SDR a lot of times we're not going to pick up just voice transmissions in most cases we're also going to pick up strange signals that we might not know what they are emis is a digital library for hundreds of signals which you can use to audibly compare and contrast whatever signal you detected you can also see what the signal looks like on a waterfall simply put Artemis will help you figure out if that signal you heard is an encrypted handheld radio transmission or a qpsk modem used by the Iranian Navy and since this program pulls info from sigid wiki.com this will continuously be updated as more and more people contribute to this project and in the future I would hope for a Plugin or something that will allow us to automatically identify signals and get a notification without the end user having to do anything it would be pretty handy to get a notification like this warning Fire Control radar detected bear 315 we're really close to being able to set this up and I would expect that several people are already working on this feature or something like it stepping away from sdrs for a moment if we want we can also bring along a handheld scanner which will dramatically increase the convenience factor and also retain capabilities when your SDR is occupied remember sdrs often times can only be used for one thing at one time so if you are scanning the band with SDR sharp you can't track aircraft at the same time time it's one or the other if you wanted to you could have a base station set up with a laptop that has multiple USB ports for multiple sdrs but this is what I would consider pretty Advanced and it's not that easy to do but it can be done if you so choose I myself find it's easier to just run one SDR plugged into one tablet doing one thing usually I'll leave RTL 1090 and plane plotter running logging all of the aircraft that fly overhead and to monitor radio traffic I'll just run an independent scanner in my area I need some pretty Advanced p25 decoding capabilities and since decoding p25 Public Service traffic is pretty taxing on an SDR I tend to just listen to local traffic with a dedicated scanner that does it all at once but just getting started with an ultra basic setup using scanner utilities on SDR sharp is pretty effective and as you get into the SDR game a bit more you can get more capable SDR receivers which can view basically the entire Spectrum at once but that's a bit Advanced and something we'll talk about in future content there's an old phrase that goes he who builds a house according to Every Man's advice will have a crooked house in the communications in Sig World a similar idea exists that is that he who builds his radio network according to Every Man's advice will be ineffective at communicating and go broke buying unnecessary gear in the process so please remember that there are infinite ways of doing things in most cases so many ways of getting to the same goal that it's overwhelming and frustrating within the world of communications or Sig or anything along these lines it's probably a good idea to start with your end goals what capabilities you need and work backwards from there now if you are using this setup that we've talked about today someone can ask you hey what S
The Wire · 2025-04-28

The Wire - April 28, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z April 28, 2025// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK KILLS 11X IN VANCOUVER, CAN. MAJOR BLACKOUT UNDERWAY IN SOUTHERN EUROPE. GROUND STOP ISSUED FOR NEWARK DUE TO RADIO COMMS OUTAGE. CEASEFIRE IN UKRAINE TO BEGIN ON MAY 8TH. LIKELY CARTEL ARMS SMUGGLER REMAINS FUGITIVE AFTER BEING RELEASED BY JUDGE. SOPHISTICATED IED FOUND AT CHURCH IN OREGON.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Canada: A vehicle ramming attack was conducted at the Lapu Lapu Filipino Heritage festival in Vancouver on Saturday night. Authorities state that the attacker intentionally drove his vehicle into a large crowd of people gathered at the intersection of Frasier and E 41st Avenue, killing 11x people and wounding dozens more. Local authorities have identified the attacker as Kai-Ji Adam Lo, who was arrested at the scene. Local police stated that the attacker was very well known to police, and had been the result of many emergency responses involving mental health incidents. Europe: This morning, a large-scale electrical power outage was reported throughout Spain, before rapidly cascading to include Portugal, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. A few hours after the outage began, French utilities started to come back online. Spain and Portugal appear to be hardest hit, with a total blackout affecting much of the two countries. Portugal's grid operator has not given a timeline for a return of power, and has indicated that the delay might be significant. Grid operators in Spain stated that it will take most of the day to restore power throughout the blackout zones, though as night has fallen much of the region remains without electricity. A state of emergency has been declared throughout Spain, and officials in the provinces of Andalusia, Extremadura, and Madrid (plus the city proper) have requested federal authorities declare the crisis a Civil Protection Level 3, so as to maintain order throughout the night in major cities as the outage persists. AC: This level of emergency declaration is usually only reserved for wartime as it involves a declaration of martial law, and a widespread deployment of military forces. Checkpoints and ID checks are also a part of this plan, along with the restriction of travel, curfews, etc. Ukraine: President Putin has announced that a general ceasefire will take place from May 8-10 along all fronts. AC: Neither American nor Ukrainian leadership has commented on the ceasefire announcement yet, nor have there been any indications as to if Ukraine will be participating in the 72-hour cessation of hostilities. Red Sea/HOA: An aviation mishap was reported onboard the USS HARRY S TRUMAN (CVN 75). During routine aviation operations, one F/A-18 aircraft was lost overboard while being towed by aircraft handlers. The tractor towing the aircraft was lost overboard as well. No casualties were reported as a result of this incident. AC: Warfare is dangerous business, and it would seem that this proverbial "business is getting out of control" for the TRUMAN. This deployment has been rough so far for the entire strike group, as military forces globally experience the follow-on effects of an increased optempo, stressed maintenance schedules, and even complacency. On this one deployment to the Red Sea, one of her escorts shot down one of her own aircraft in a friendly-fire incident (Dec, 2024), she collided with a merchant vessel resulting in damage to her fantail (Feb, 2025), and now an entire aircraft was lost overboard. This is important in the context that she is on her second Captain (the first skipper was fired after the collision) during this deployment...a deployment which was extended a few weeks ago amid rising tensions with the Iranians.  -HomeFront- California: Over the weekend, vandals set fire to a utility pole in Sacramento, causing internet connectivity loss throughout the eastern and central parts of the city for much of the day on Saturday. New Jersey: This afternoon a ground stop was issued for all aviation traffic departing Newark following a reported loss of radio capabilities at the tower. AC: Since this is the busiest air traffic control sector in the United States, this is a big deal. Details are sketchy at best, but pilots report a loss of radio communication with the tower at Newark for unknown reasons. Some unconfirmed reports suggest Newark tower lost radar at some point as well. Either way (and as serious as this incident is), this has happened before. Illinois: A woman was murdered on the Green Line in Chicago last Thursday, after a brief altercation. Witnesses state that Willie Holmes initially started an altercation with a stranger (identified as Emily Carlson) while transiting on an L train, prompting the victim's boyfriend to confront the assailant. Holmes then produced a knife and murdered Carlson. Wyoming: An alleged cartel weapons trafficker remains at large after being a no-show in court on Friday. Ricardo Paez-Quinones was originally arrested after being caught smuggling around 18,000 small arms rounds in Carbon County last month. Paez-Quinones, being an illegal immigrant that was previously deported twice, was indicted by a grand jury following his initial arrest. AC: Despite the original prosecutor arguing that the individual was very likely to be a flight risk due to his connections to organized crime, U.S. Chief Magistrate Judge Scott Klosterman released him from custody on a $20,000 bond. Because this bond was unsecured, he did not have to pay a dime up front for his release. He simply walked free to become a fugitive after being allowed to do so by the judge, who knew that most of the suspect's family lived in Mexico, and that he was a twice-deported illegal alien. Oregon: Details regarding the discovery of a suspicious device have been released by local authorities. Last week, a suspicious package was discovered by an employee of a local mechanic shop in La Grande. After authorities were alerted to the device, a local Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) team confirmed that the device was an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) that was fashioned as a crude pipe bomb with ball bearings added for additional shrapnel. AC: This story did not gain much traction when it first came to light, however additional details (and photo evidence) has confirmed that this device was located on the sidewalk immediately adjacent to Calvary Chapel. This context indicates that this small-town news story is likely related to the general increase in risks to religious institutions around the nation. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The blackout in Europe is very likely the largest power outage to strike the continent in recent memory, and the effects are very widespread. When power goes out in one neighborhood minor inconvenience is the result, but when a outage strikes on a continental scale, very serious impacts are observed. Portuguese grid officials have claimed that the outage was the result of "rare atmospheric phenomenon". This is comparatively common when severe solar weather causes electromagnetic variations in the Earth's ionosphere. However space weather for the past few days has been very mild, with no watches or warnings even being issued at all over the past few days. Power grid fluctuations occurring with this little solar activity are completely unheard of, making these space weather claims dubious at best. Due to the language barrier, it is possible that the references to "atmospheric" causes were not related to space weather, but rather actual weather. Hot weather can cause power lines to stretch and droop into other lines, the resulting shorting of which can cause exceptionally widespread outages if it occurs in the right place. This has been the cause of several very infamous power outages over the years (combined with mismanaged regulation of voltage, causing transmission lines to heat up and stretch even more). The next most likely theory that is circulating at the moment is that the outage was caused by multiple independent cyberattacks on the core communications functions of the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-e). At the moment there's no evidence available to the public that can confirm this for the time being. It also must be noted that almost two weeks ago, Spanish grid operator Red Electrica reached a milestone regarding their renewable energy sector. On April 16, the grid operator claimed that the Spanish electrical grid ran fully on solar, wind, and hydro power for the first time in history. This highlights the recent substantial efforts to further allegedly "carbon-neutral" standards and goals...efforts which in the wake of last month's outage at Heathrow Airport are drawing scrutiny. Of course, not every power outage can be blamed on one single root cause; there are usually long chains of causation for events like this. However, the recent major changes throughout the continent, among all sectors of energy production, certainly will be under major scrutiny as Europe's energy crisis at large starts to impact the average citizen more directly than it has in the past. In Canada, local authorities claim that the attack in Vancouver was not terrorism, however eyewitness statements overwhelmingly confirm this was an intentional terrorist attack. Locals reported the assailant deliberately waited for the event to draw to a close before conducting the attack. He waited until the traffic barriers were being removed as the event was winding down, at which point he threated his vehicle through the barriers that were being removed, to intentionally target the crowd that still remained. After the attack, the assailant exited his vehicle and was confronted/detained by those at the event. While it would be wise to confirm the details of the investigation into this event, enough information has been conveyed by event-goers to fill in the gaps with regards to risk assessment. In this case, it seems as though another mass-casualty event has taken place that would have been preventable had complacency not been a major contributing factor. Reports vary on the status of anti-vehicle barricades for this event. Some state that there were no barricades at all, but rather standard traffic cones which were used for traffic control purposes, while others claim the limited barriers that were emplaced were not sufficient in either traffic control or in preventing the attack itself. Whatever the barrier situation was at the time of the incident, clearly it was not sufficient either in deterring or stopping a major terror attack. Instead of waiting for crowds to disperse fully, traffic barriers being removed before the event was fully over was also likely a factor in attack planning. Much like previous incidents, the proximity to risk is a huge factor many people do not realize. Many people will evacuate a building that's on fire...only to stand 4 feet from the door. Or even more commonly, sprint out of the building just to immediately stop in the doorway, blocking the egress of those behind them. In this case, the exact same mentality could have been a major contributing factor for the success of this attack. If the event ended at midnight, and the traffic barriers and counterterrorism efforts were ceased only 10-15 minutes later, this would have obviously not been adequate to stop the threats that remained as crowds dispersed throughout the area. As such, constant vigilance and situational awareness are desperately needed at all times, especially if local authorities and event-goers alike are largely complacent. Terrorists are patient. Terrorists do not shuffle their feet and moan about their shift being too long. Terrorists can wait a long time and are dedicated to their goals. Terrorists will wait for the precise moment that they have the best possible chance for success, knowing that authorities have to be successful in preventing attacks at all times...while the terrorist only has to be successful once. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Intel Update · 2026-04-05

Intel Update - April 4 - A Running Start?

Hello again, everyone, and welcome back to the Underground. This is the Intel update for March 29th through April 4th, 2026. Happy Easter one and all for those who celebrated this week, and I hope everyone is able to find a little bit of peace this weekend, because around the world the flavor continues to be war and the follow-on effects of it. It's already become a very crazy year, so let's get right to it. The global impact of the two wars in the Middle East continues to be felt as the second and third-order effects are starting to become more serious. On the diplomatic front this week, things are getting pretty complicated as most of our European allies have either refused to take part in the American foray in Iran, or they have otherwise denied the use of their airspace or staging bases for continuing the war. This has complicated the situation quite a bit and made things a little bit more challenging on the American front as the United States has had to figure out logistical means of continuing the fight. On the economic front, supply chain disruptions are underway as raw materials are either unable to transit the Strait of Hormuz or the production facilities themselves throughout the Middle East have sustained damage during the war. So, continuing the theme from last week, the Strait of Hormuz being restricted is really only just half of the problem. The other half of the problem is that fertilizer, aluminum, and helium production facilities have been hit with ballistic missiles and are therefore severely damaged. This has resulted in about 46% of the world's supply of fertilizer being cut off right during the peak planting season for most crops around the world. Agricultural news is not exactly the most exciting thing these days, however, this is going to be a major, major problem in the next few months, especially through out Southeast Asia and the rest of the Third World if shipments of fertilizer are not resumed. A bit closer to home this week, terrorism concerns remain paramount here in the United States. Obviously, for the past month or so, we've all been kind of more focused on things popping off in the Middle East, or at least I've been more focused on that due to the seriousness of that situation, but here at home concerns are probably even more important for us in the homeland, things that are going to affect us more on a day-to-day basis. This week within the United States, most of the news has been centered around general crime as the warmer weather is usually correlated with an increase in crime season. Mass shootings, which are mostly of the gang shooting variety, crime sprees, and the general states of standard unrest are pretty common nationwide, which has become fairly standard this time of year. One detail that would be wise to monitor over the next few weeks is the sharp decline in immigration enforcement operations, as well as fraud investigations. Again, just a couple of months ago, we were really on the edge of our seats wondering if Minneapolis was going to be a major problem for the nation, and all of that civil unrest stopped when the federal government stopped the aggressive counter-illegal immigration efforts. I hate to say it, ladies and gentlemen, but the mass deportations are over. Minneapolis was the peak, and we can argue about how effective all of this was, for sure, but we're basically done with the high-profile ICE surges. President Trump himself has made it exceptionally clear that his priority is to reduce focus on illegal immigrant workers, and also reduce ICE operations to return to more of the low-level, low-intensity raids and efforts like this. And now that the war in the Middle East is on, the focus on fraud has been reduced as well. The Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, is basically non-existent at this point, and the focus on scandals such as the Somali fraud situation, is basically just a local law enforcement issue right now. Vice President Vance has been placed in charge of the anti-fraud initiatives, but he has been very quiet on social media over the past few weeks since the war began, which is understandable, I guess, but it's hard to determine how serious of an initiative this is. So, even though the kinetic activity in the US has been comparatively light as we are focused on other stuff, we will certainly have to be on our toes over the next few weeks, as always, because we can't really know how world events are going to impact the homeland. Moving to the Middle East for this week, we can see that the conflict continues to expand, and at this point, more or less the entire globe is involved to to degree. Maybe not directly, but indirectly for sure. Within the Middle East itself, no one is safe as missiles and drones are continuing to target most of the region. Iranian attacks have not decreased at all. They have actually increased substantially this week, at least according to the various ministries of defense for the Gulf states. Just taking the UAE as an example, this week they reported intercepting 108 missiles and 269 drones, which is a sharp increase from last week, which reported only 57 missiles and 124 drones. So, roughly double the number of drones and missiles uh being used for attacks in the Middle East in just one country. So, remember, this is just the interceptions that are being reported. The UAE does not report the missiles and drones that make it through their air defenses to actually impact their targets. So, we're definitely dealing with incomplete information, but even just taking what they have intercepted as a benchmark, Iranian missile and drone attacks on the UAE have doubled from last week. Concerning the American military presence in the region, Iranian targeting efforts have also increased substantially. Many of the missiles and drones that have been reported by the UAE, for example, came from the Iranians targeting Al Dhafra Air Base, which has been getting pounded every single day. Similarly, Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia has been yet another Air Base heavily targeted by Iranian attacks, most notably this week by taking out the E-3 Sentry parked on a taxiway at this installation. Following that attack, American forces are still using this Air Base and are still using the same parking areas, even knowing that the Iranians can hit this location rather easily. In Bahrain, what is now the former headquarters for the US Navy's Fifth Fleet in Manama has been more or less completely destroyed. In the early days of the war, right after the missiles started flying, it became very clear that this naval base was a main target for the Iranians. So, the US military dispersed their personnel to civilian hotels around the city, which did work to reduce casualties, but once those hotels started getting hit a few weeks ago, the Navy started pulling everybody out of the city. So, over the past week or so, the decision was made to relocate the last remaining service members and their families who were told to grab only what they could carry in a go bag and get on a plane, which indicates the urgency at which this movement was carried out. As of this morning, the withdrawal has completed and the command of Fifth Fleet's headquarters has been relocated from Bahrain to Norfolk, Virginia. Other bases around the region have been getting hit hard as well in a similar manner as on the first day of the war when the Iranians were just hitting everything in range. Due to American HIMARS missile strikes being launched from Kuwait, bases throughout the country have been hit very hard. Camp Arifjan, Camp Buehring, and Ali Al Salem Air Base have been struck daily this week, which is significant because all three of these bases are not really that fortified. I didn't want to point this out earlier for obvious reasons, but it's kind of a moot point now as the Iranians have figured this out. These bases are traditionally not considered to be front-line bases, so there aren't really many defenses at these locations and terrain-wise, it's just open desert. There really normally aren't any efforts to dig in here. These are, or at least were, staging bases for movement around the region. For example, Ali Al Salem Air Base has an ice cream shop and Arifjan has a Pizza Hut and a Burger King last I remember. I think a KFC as well. Concerning fortifications, after the invasion of Iraq, not much was done to harden any of the bases in Kuwait and nearly all of them just rely on the simple T-walls for fortifications. No HESCO barriers, nothing underground, basically it's just what you see is what you get. Again, I wasn't going to mention this initially, but the Iranians have figured it out and various former CENTCOM officials themselves have gone on TV and spilled the beans on how little these bases are actually protected, so I guess it's kind of a wash at this point. The Iranians already know. But anyway, these bases are not really combat bases and what's even worse, the Iranians have somehow figured out that the United States did not fortify these bases at all before the war either because the United States did not think that the Iranians would strike our bases in the region. This is directly what President Trump himself said. He directly stated that he didn't think that they would hit our bases. And if that was not clear and confirmed enough for you, the Pentagon has posted emergency solicitations for pre-fab concrete bunkers for immediate delivery within just a few days. So now we're backtracking and actually trying to get our guys some protection over there because they're not getting it where they're at. So concerning the situation in the Middle East, it's not good in terms of our bases there. We have bases that are normally filled with fobbits such as myself, which normally would be basically a garrison environment. Now these bases are being hit daily. Bases which used to be in the rear are now front-line fighting positions. It must be quite a unique phenomenon and I I don't think anybody who's ever been stationed in Kuwait during the GWOT era has ever thought about digging a fighting hole to sleep in at night because there are literally massage parlors and green bean coffee shops on these bases. But now they're going to hit with missiles and now they're having to sandbag their positions, right? They're on the front line and there's really not much that can be done to fortify these positions quickly enough to defend against a ballistic missile strike. As much as OPSEC is definitely a concern, there's always going to be some private schmuckatelli who gets on TikTok and posts a video of the missile hitting his base. So yeah, it's not good. They've been pretty good about OPSEC so far, but we can definitely see that there's not a whole lot you can do if you get hit or you know, your if your ticket's about to be punched by an Iranian missile, there's not a whole lot you can do about it. Bunker or not, concrete or not. But either way, it's become quite clear that our bases are not super great right now and there's not a whole lot we can do about it. But these are just our static positions. Again, we also have other positions as well around the region and of course we have the air war which continues on as before. This week the war has gotten quite tense as we've had several American aircraft shot down either over the over Iran itself or over the Strait of Hormuz or somewhere throughout the region, right? I don't want to comment on that too much at the moment because rescue operations are ongoing and we don't want to impact that negatively in any form or fashion. So, we're just going to have to wait and let them do their job and get those guys out of harm's way as best they can. But, just suffice it to say for now that the situation is is rather rather tense. So, all of that being considered and recognizing that this week has pointed out that this is in fact a pretty hard fight here. This is a hot shooting war. This is not an insurgency. This is not a counterinsurgency. This is a shooting war here. All of that in consideration, what comes next? What grand strategy are we working with here? And considering the events of this week, how is this war likely to develop over the next week both in terms of the war on the ground and the impacts to the homeland even? Well, to get to these impacts, we have to backtrack a little bit and understand a little bit of warfare doctrine that I failed to cover last week. If we want to understand how this is going to impact our ability to live our lives in the homeland, we have to keep our eye on what the general plan is. Our lives within the homeland are going to be changed based on the plan ahead. We are in this 9/11 era of generational change. You're living in it right now. And so far, no strategic plan has been conveyed at all. And here's exactly what I mean by that. Cracking open a bit of warfare doctrine, we can see that there are three levels of warfare. Many of you have probably seen this before, but for those of you who are not aware, we have strategic, operational, and tactical levels of pretty much everything from planning to communications and even goals and objectives that we might want to meet. Some people might consider a fourth level grand strategy at the a way at the top which provides the overall strategic vision for the war. But, generally speaking, if you crack open any warfare publication, you're going to see probably this chart: strategic, operational, and tactical. Now, I know that this might also be a little bit hard to understand without an example. So, let's use the Vietnam War as a sample for what we're talking about here. Starting at the very top, we have grand strategy. As our friend Carl von Clausewitz once said, "War is a continuation of politics by other means." Well, at this level, at the grand strategy level, we're starting to blend this political strategy and this military strategy together. This is at the stage where a politician says, "This is the grand strategy that I want to implement and we're looking for a military solution for this problem." So, using the Vietnam example, we might say that the grand strategy of the Vietnam War or sending troops into Vietnam is that we will reduce the USSR's power and influence around the world. Again, this is a grand strategy idea. So, we're going to reduce the Soviet Union's power around the world. Again, we're being very, very wave top at this level. Getting into the pyramid itself with a strategic example, to achieve this grand strategy, the military strategy here is that we will reduce the overall communist influence within Southeast Asia. For those of you who are Vietnam history buffs, you might recognize this as containment theory. But again, we're at the very wave top strategic level where we're starting to get a little bit more specific with what our goals are. Moving down the chart, we get into operational. This is where we get that word operations from, right? So, now we're talking what military operations are we going to conduct in order to meet this objective. And in this case, we might say something along the lines of we're going to destroy the enemy's ability to move freely within North Vietnam. Again, this is a military objective, cause and effect. We have a mission and we have a desired end state for that mission. And finally, at the very bottom, where most of us tend to think most of the time because we tend to not be a military strategist in our everyday life, something that we might say on the tactical level of warfare is, "Hey, we're going to go drop bombs on that enemy encampment over there or we're going to carry out this bombing campaign on the Ho Chi Minh Trail to ensure that the North Vietnamese cannot carry out resupply operations during the monsoon season." That's what we might say on the tactical level. And once again, with all of this in mind, let's take a look at what the United States has said our strategic goals actually are. The first goal is to obliterate Iran's missiles and production capacity. The second goal is to annihilate its navy. Number three is to sever its support for terrorist proxies. And number four is to ensure that it never acquires a nuclear weapon. This is what the United States has said our strategic goals are in this fight, and if we look at this in terms of what everyone would consider to be warfare doctrine, the levels of warfare, strategic, operational, and tactical, we can see that not a lot of these are actually strategic goals at all. These are more tactical level things. And maybe we can see why nearly every single military strategist offering commentary on the war has stated that the United States has not actually stated what the grand strategy or the overall strategy actually is. We have only been given tactical level goals by the Pentagon and the White House. We're going to blow up your bridges, we're going to blow up your civilian power plants, we're going to blow up your missile sites and things like that. That's all tactical level stuff. So, that's what the United States is trying to do. These are the four bullet points that they keep putting out there in terms of saying what their grand strategy is. Now, let's take a look at the other side for a moment. Let's see what Iran's strategic goals are. What are the Iranians trying to do? Well, mostly overall, their grand strategy is simply to survive. Again, they are the defender. The defender always has the advantage over the attacker. And in this case, their goal is simply to survive. More specifically, their goal is to keep the regime in power, right? That's how they're going to survive this war. And to do that, to keep that regime in power, and to supplement their national defense, they're going to have to maintain missile and drone production. Yeah, even though we're bombing them, they're going to have to keep up their supply of drones at some point. In addition to these like hard requirements for them to sustain their their operations for any length of time, they're also going to have to keep control of the Strait of Hormuz to some degree, or at least maintain a lot of influence over it. They may eventually capitulate, or they may eventually strike a deal with the United States and open up the Strait of Hormuz to the United States and Israel once again, but what they really need to do is keep the fear in the global markets that they can blow up any ship that goes through the strait if they so choose, right? So, in terms of controlling the Strait of Hormuz, they don't necessarily have to physically go out there and, you know, halt who goes there, anybody who tries to go through it. They just have to make everybody scared that they might start shooting ships again. That would be enough to control the Strait of Hormuz for them, at least. And finally, they also have to maintain freedom of maneuver within their own territory. That's just kind of a boilerplate expectation of any nation-state that hopes to survive a conflict. They have to maintain movement within their own country. So, finally, we come to the ultimate question. Are we winning? Well, again, we cannot really say with any certainty because the United States has not actually conveyed any strategic goals. Everything on the list is on a tactical level, except for maybe objective three, the severing support for international terrorist proxies. That could be more of an operational thing. You could probably argue that, but everything else is just a target list of things to bomb, and that's not a strategic plan. A list of targets to bomb in H- in HPTL, a high-priority target list, or a high-payoff target list, that is not a strategic plan. That is a means to achieve that strategic plan. You can only assess whether or not a nation is winning a war based on whether or not they are meeting their strategic objectives, and we have no strategic objectives to assess. So, it's kind of a moot point. But, nevertheless, we have to analyze what we've been given. So, let's rephrase the question to align with more doctrine that's harder to refute. Is the United States meeting her declared military objectives? Well, let's bring up the chart and find out. So, first up, the United States has not obliterated the Iranians' missile and drone supply. I really do, in fact, hate to be that guy, but if we're going to be trying to be as correct as possible here, we have to use doctrinal terms, and obliterate is not one of those. Normally, what we have to use is one of what we call the five D's: deny, disrupt, degrade, destroy, and/or deceive. So, if we were to rephrase the White House's question, I don't know exactly what they mean. Do they mean to destroy the Iranians' ballistic missile supply? If that's their goal, then the answer is no, you're not going to do that. You're not going to destroy all of the Iranians ballistic missile and drone uh stockpile. It's just not going to happen. But, if the White House means to obliterate as in disrupt, yeah, they could disrupt. They We've already done that for sure. If we blow up a single drone, that's a drone they can't launch, right? And we've done a lot of that. We've blown up a lot of bases that they use to uh make these drones as well. So, disrupt, degrade, sure. Deny them the ability to launch missiles? Yeah, maybe we can even impact that. But, destroy? I don't know. Uh and I guess it really gets into semantics land of what do they mean by that word obliterate? But, anyway, since we have to live in a world where we have to go off of something, we have to make decisions and make assessments, and we have to form opinions based off of incomplete information, we have to just admit that the United States is not reducing the number of missile and drone attacks that are striking our bases in the Middle East. We're not doing that. So, if that is the standard by which this first bullet point is being met or is intended to be met, the answer is no. We are not meeting this objective. So, what about the next one? Uh annihilate the Iranian Navy. Again, we're not using doctrinal terms here. This is more emotional language. Annihilate, what does annihilate mean? I don't know. And also, we have to be specific. The Iranian Navy, which Navy? Because there are two of them. There is the IRIN, the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy, which is more of their conventional surface fleet of frigates and corvettes, things like that. And then, they also have their IRGCN, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, which is their fast boat Navy, their uh what we might call a brown water Navy, but they are the actually the more formidable force when it comes to the Iranians. Again, the Iranians have a very different uh military structure than most Western nations would have. And when we say annihilate the Iranian Navy, we have to be really specific because, and again, this is debatable. I'm sorry for all the squids out there who might get a little upset about this, but destroying the IRIN, all of the corvettes and the frigates and sinking them with your submarines and things like that. That's not the impressive part. Sure, this is combat effective. It is. However, the surface fleet of the Iranians was never really the biggest threat. Sinking a lot of older frigates is not as as significant in terms of maintaining control of the Strait of Hormuz as sinking a lot of their smaller fast boats that they have in caves and things like that. So, has the United States Navy destroyed the IRIN? The answer to that is probably yes. However, were those naval forces intended to be used in warfare? No, because most of them were sunk pierside. So, even the Iranians were not planning to use them against the United States and the Iranians knew we were coming. So, if you're asking yourself, "Well, why did the the Iranian Navy not put to sea when they knew we were going to attack?" Well, mostly because they wanted to front-load the their effort into the IRGC-N, which is the bigger navy. And as far as I know, the White House and the Pentagon have completely ignored the fact that the IRGC-N exists and is not really being targeted. So, for any journalists out there who wants a free news story, just look up the difference between the IRIN and the IRGC-N and then ask the Pentagon, "Hey, you know, we know that you guys have been advertising really heavily that you're you've sunk a bunch of Iranian ships, but what about the IRGC-N? What about those fast boats? Have you been able to effectively get good effects on target with those guys?" Because so far they're acting like the Iranian Navy is one succinct thing when in essence they're not. They're two completely different navies, two completely different command structures, and two completely different rules of engagement and authority and all that stuff. So, when we talk about annihilating the Iranian Navy, we have to be very specific again, and this is why I have to give this one a partial. This is a partial success because yes, we have destroyed a good chunk of the IRIN. So, yeah, the Iranian surface fleet, the traditional navy that they have, yeah, those guys are combat ineffective. So, that is a success. However, what is the bigger threat right now to shipping? The IRGC-N. That has always been the biggest threat and the United States sinking the lesser threat does not really help us get an idea of what the bigger threat actually is. So, I have to give this one a partial. Next one up, next goal is severing support for terrorist proxies. Well, this one has not happened at all as the Iranian proxies in Iraq and in Lebanon are mobilizing and they're conducting targeting of their own right now. So, this goal is a this this goal right now is a hard no. We're nowhere near reaching this goal at the moment. And finally, we arrive at our main goal or at least the goal that has really just been most of the focus for most of the talking points and speeches on the war, which is the goal of not allowing the Iranians to achieve a nuclear weapon. Now, this one's a hot button topic, I know. This one many of you are going to debate, I know and this is going to be a pretty nasty knife fight in the comment section, I know. But, let's come at it from as objective of a of a position as we possibly can. So, if you were in the camp of the Iranians did not have a nuclear weapon and they were not really trying that hard to get one, then you will say that technically, yes, this goal is successful. We have achieved the goal of no Iranian nukes because the Iranians were never trying to get one in the first place. So, mission accomplished. However, if you disagree with that and you think that the Iranians were trying to get a nuclear weapon, first of all, it's going to be rather hard to square the circle of Operation Midnight Hammer because I myself got berated by a lot of you out there for daring to suggest that Operation Midnight Hammer might not have been a success despite the White House leading, literally, they literally led with the high with the headline of Iran's nuclear facilities have been obliterated and suggestions otherwise are fake news. People like me read that and said, "Okay, all right, fair enough, but, you know, um whatever, I guess." But, you're going to have to pick which one is true because you can't have Operation Midnight Hammer being true and this war being true at the same time. It's it's hard to square that circle, I'll say. You can probably, you know, lawyer your way around it, but for the most part, you've got to figure out which one you're going to try to support here. If you want to know what I personally think, I think that the Iranians were trying to straddle the fence. I think that they were trying to enrich to a certain point, to a certain percentage, whatever that percentage is, you can debate, but then they were going to stop short of actually building a gun-type nuclear device. This was so that they could be dangerous enough to be a strategic deterrent to avoid Gaddafi's mistake, right? But not so dangerous that they're going to warrant a full-blown international, you know, ISAF corporation, you know, co-cooperative effort like we gave Saddam. So, they were trying to prevent Saddam's mistake, too, right? This is not a particularly groundbreaking theory, right? This is This is actually been the boilerplate textbook explanation for the Iranian nuclear program for pretty much everybody, every agency, for the vast majority of time, right up until midnight hammer last year. But, again, this is all very debatable. Form your own opinion, I don't care. But, what I think that pretty much all of us would agree with right now, after the war has begun, is that the Iranians are certainly going to get a nuclear weapon now, or at least they're going to try. They would be complete idiots to not get a nuclear weapon at this point. And honestly, they don't actually have to make one themselves. There have been rumors flying around for many, many years that Pakistan would be willing to give them enough enriched uranium to make a gun-type device. Maybe not an implosion device, okay? But probably a gun-type device, or maybe even a fully built weapon to test or something with Pakistani advisers on scene, who knows? So, getting back to our handy chart here, you know, are we meeting the goal of ensuring that Iran would never get a nuclear weapon? Again, it is subjective, but I would argue not only no, are we not doing that, but we are guaranteeing that they are going to build one now. So, that's it for the American objectives and the American goals in this war so far. This is what we are saying our goals are, We're not meeting those objectives, anywhere near those objectives just yet. So, on the other hand, let's bring up the Iranian chart. Let's crush through this one right quick. The Iranians' goal of surviving, yeah, they've survived. Keeping the regime in power, yep, they've maintained that goal, yeah. Killing their leadership, the killing the Ayatollah, we have not removed the position of Ayatollah, we have just made a new one. So, the regime and the system of governance, the their political system is still in place, so they have achieved that goal. Their goal of maintaining missile and drone production, maybe. I'm going to say maybe on that one because we have destroyed a lot of their factories and drone production facilities. However, I'm not sure if anybody else caught this, but the other day Marco Rubio alluded to the Iranians being able to still build and produce new drones. So, maybe I'm reading too much into that, I don't know, but I think the Iranians are still able to build these things to some degree. It's not like they're dealing with a static supply, right? are not working through just a stockpile of drones in crates that they have way back in the back of a dark cave. No, they're able to produce drones to some degree still. But, I don't have any data on how much of or what type they're able to produce. I don't think I mean, it can't be that much. Surely, if they had the ability to build 100% of their drone supply underground, why would they have above ground factories at all, right? So, surely we're doing something by blowing up most of their country, but I don't know what it is and it's going to be debatable. It's not going to be at the open source anyway, so I'm going to give this one a maybe for now. And finally, the last two, control the Strait of Hormuz, yeah, the Iranians absolutely indisputably control the Strait of Hormuz. The US Navy is not able to get within 100 miles of the Strait. And of course, maintain freedom of maneuver within their own terrain, yeah, absolutely, they control their own territory, at least for now until we put boots on the ground, if that is the chosen course of action. So, that's where things stand right now. The United States is struggling to meet her own stated military objectives while the Iranians are able to undeniably meet most of theirs. It's unfortunate. I don't like saying this because I am American and I hope that we win just on principle, I suppose, because you going to you have to root for the nation that you're in. However, we have to be clear about this. And we have to be realistic if we're having any any chance of success. So, one thing that I would also like to mention is the gigantic elephant on the slide here, uh which has been down in the corner this entire time, which is uh the list of Israeli goals for the war. Again, the United States is not in this war by ourselves, are we? So, we don't have to worry about the American strategic goals or the Iranian strategic goals alone. There's another player that's involved in this. Remember, multiple White House officials and even Trump himself admitted that this war was only carried out because of the Israelis. You don't have to like it. You don't have to agree with me. But, no matter how much they try to walk it back, that's what they said. And in this case, uh what is undeniable is that the Israelis have different goals than the United States, as any foreign nation would be expected to have, right? There may be overlap on some things, which we can argue about, I'm sure, but by and large, separate nation-states have differing goals. They just do. When Russia went to war in Ukraine, Belarus was right there, weren't they? Belarus was right there. Lukashenka was right there. But, Belarus and Russia, despite being on the same side during the Ukrainian war, they also have different military objectives. They just do because they're different countries. If they were the same exact country, they would have the same exact objectives, but they're not. And the same thing is uh the case with the United States and Israel. And I think that many people, please don't shoot me for thinking this, but I think that most people right now are starting to realize that the United States and Israel have vastly differing objectives. Maybe we can get into this a little bit later on if I can figure out how to talk about this without assuming too much danger on my part. But, for right now, I just want to make it abundantly clear that when it comes to the strategic goals of the war, there are three main entities here that have a lot to say in how the war goes. So, with all of this being said, what do we do? What are we going to do now? The United States has not met her goals for the war. So, how might we meet these objectives? Well, throughout the past few weeks, I've been doing a lot of wargaming myself to try to figure out what the United States might actually do. After all, things don't seem to be going super well in the war and they raised the enlistment age. So, I'm technically eligible again and if things go sideways in this war and I myself get drafted, I'm going to be rather upset that I didn't think these things out beforehand. Anyway, that's a long way down the road, I think, for for sure. But anyway, there are three main plans that I can think of, which according to very leaky media are actively being considered. Once again, I want to remind you that I am not supporting any of these. I'm just trying to analyze what I think that might be done. So, the first one, course of action one, COA1, is a direct assault on the islands. Again, this is something not particularly surprising. The United States has been floating this for a while. A lot of strategists and military generals have floated the ideas of maybe taking some of the islands, Qeshm Island, Khark Island, Larak Island, the Strait of Hormuz, maybe Hormuz Island itself, who knows. Maybe Abu Musa is another target as well they might go for. Either way, island assault, right? Island hopping throughout the Strait of Hormuz with the eventual goal of trying to seize some terrain in the strait and maybe somehow stop the Iranian missiles that are being launched at commercial shipping through the strait. It could also be more of a confidence thing as well because personally I I don't think that anybody would ever realize that taking an island in the strait is going to do very much because the missiles and the drones, the anti-ship cruise missiles and the drones that are used to target the merchant shipping, they're being launched from the mountains about 15 miles back from the coast. So, you're going to have to go kind of a long way in uh to to actually open up the Strait of Hormuz. But anyway, that's COA 1, direct assault on the islands. COA 2 is a little bit more sane, uh but also harder to do. And this is a new concept that the Marines came up with, a comparatively new concept. It's It started being put into the fleet back in I think 2017, 2018, but it has been theorized for a very long time before that. And this is the idea of the Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations, or EABO, or EAB, depending on how you want to say it. EABO is a new concept, again, from the Marine Corps, which was developed for the Pacific. This is uh the one of the core components of their island hopping theory for a potential conflict with China. And the goal of EABO uh kind of stuff is to have distributed bases set up. So, learning from what's going on in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and the UAE, where our bases like, you know, Camp Arifjan, Camp Buehring, Camp Al Asad, Al Udeid, Al Dhafra, these these bases which are just big bases with a big fence They're getting hit pretty hard, aren't they? Because the enemy can find out where they are. Well, the core tenant of EABO is to distribute that stuff. Spread out, disperse. That is the goal of EABO. And since we have good comms and we have pretty uh variable logistics, we can set up little miniature bases that are not necessarily one specific location. We could spread that stuff out over a long period or or or a wide space. In the Pacific, the goal of this is to say, drop a couple of platoons of infantry on an island and they hold that for a period of time, and the next island over can hold their logistics, and the next island over can hold their uh forward arming and refueling point, the FARP. And next, another little island can be the airstrip, and they can just spread out so that a Chinese cruise missile can't come in and ruin their day so easily. Well, considering that this is a new idea, this has just entered the fleet in in terms of doctrine for the MAGTF, the Marines might be uh chomping at the bit to put this into action because I'm looking at this through the lens of the MAGTF and I'm looking at this through the lens of the MEU and I think that the Marines think they can do it and I think that's what they're probably trying to plan for. Use the EABO concept to establish command and control throughout the region so that they don't necessarily have to have one base in one place. This would be smart. This is what I would do. Uh kind of what the Iranians actually did. The Iranians already did this over in Syria. For those who don't know, during the bulk of the GWOT, most of Syria was used basically as a playground for the Iranians and they ran supplies, they had little fobs of their own and all conveniently they were all along the border. There were a lot of little fobs, little bases, little supply shacks, right? Just just inside Iran that were they would use to send missiles into Afghanistan, missiles and rockets and things like that. Rockets really. They knew that we couldn't touch them, they knew that we couldn't bomb them so that's what they did. Same thing in, you know, Cambodia and Laos during Vietnam. The Viet Cong did the same thing. Well, why can't we just reverse uno card these bad boys and do it to them, too? Set up a few EABO um hubs, I guess as you should say it. Set up a few EABOs throughout Iraq and Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and all these other places, right? And start just carrying out an insurgent style attack against the Iranians. This is not a grand a secret here that I'm revealing. This is actually literally in the textbook. So, if you want to go grab yourself a smart book, one of the MAGTF smart binders, you'll see that this is a bulk of that publication and I think that's probably what the Marines are pitching to the White House right now. It's probably one of the one of the lead COAs. Now, here's the thing. One of the critical aspects of the EABO is the fact that you could do this while within range of the enemy WEZ, you know, the weapons engagement zone. So, basically you're talking about setting up a an infrastructure of military posts, bases and ecosystems when the enemy can hit you at any point. That's why this is such a delicate process here and this is why this is such an important thing the Marines have been trying to hammer out. It's not really been combat tested. So, let's think about that. It's not really been combat tested. This is still more or less general theory than uh any kind of practicality thing, but it's it's doctrine now. It's in the book. There's books written on it. So, the EABO is kind of an it's it's technically more of a newer thing, but it has been talked about for a while. So, the Marines, I know out there have been we've been talking about this for 10 15 years, but really it's just been kind of cemented in doctrine over the past I don't know five or so years, maybe. And I think that they may think they could drop a few EABOs throughout the region, take a few islands in the strait, uh and this would this would uh work with the next uh rather unfortunate COA, which is COA 3. Uh so, I'll move to that one now, which is what a lot of the mainstream media's going with, and uh this is the hairbrained theory, uh which is the idea of pushing in a helicopter assault force or a half into somewhere like Natanz or Fordow or maybe uh some of the more remote areas of eastern Iran and start coming out at them from the eastern side of the country. Now, I I should not have to uh point out how serious of an idea this is, but let's just take the events of the past 24 hours as kind of a bit of a case study sample to figure out what what how bad of an idea this this potentially is. So, regarding the combat search and rescue operations that are uh kind of ongoing in the western part of Iran, think about it like this. Uh we sent two Pave Hawks and a C-130 or MC-130, whatever, uh into western Iran. Standard C's are a package with a very special dudes who are the absolute tip of the spear, the absolute best of the best. These guys are the best at what they do, and we sent these guys into Iran, and two of their Pave Hawks got shot up to the point of where they sustained quite a bit of damage. So, at least that's what mainstream media's reporting. Is that true? I don't know, but the idea remains. We sent a bunch of special forces into western Iran on a standard rescue mission, and they got shot up pretty bad. And they're continuing to get shot up pretty bad. So, I don't think we have uh too much success uh in in store if we end up sending a bunch of conventional army airborne air assault UH-60s into Iran somehow. Now, for those of you who don't necessarily have a military background, and you're not exactly a uh an expert on things like the concept of the air assault or airborne operations, let me just convey to you that anybody out there who's got a copy of the 101st Airborne Division's gold book, their uh air assault manual, if you've got a hard copy of that in your house somewhere or on your bookshelf, chances are your eyes right now are the size of dinner plates as I explain that they're trying to launch or they're trying to set the narrative for a half into Iran. Now, of course, it is possible. Anything's possible, right? We can put anybody anywhere. The question is, how long can we keep them there, and can we keep them there without killing everyone involved? And so far, uh unfortunately, we have to kind of take what Fox News is pushing as some sort of indicator of policy because that's how it's worked out so far, and it does seem like they may uh have on the table some kind of half raid somewhere in the country, maybe not into mainland Iran, maybe into an island. I don't know. Either way, these are the three COAs that I'm seeing floating out there in the ether sphere, which are seriously being considered. So, once again, just for the record, I want to be on the record stating that I don't think that these courses of action, these plans that are currently being floated out in the open at least, I don't think any of these are viable military objectives. I don't think any of these are good idea, and I hope we don't do it, but I think that the reason that I'm talking about this is because I I can see through the doctrine that they may try this. The EABO concept would work in a partner nation. That's one of the keys to the EABO working. You can't just put an EABO behind enemy lines in Iran itself, but they may try. Again, the helicopter assault force, traditionally we do not conduct half raids when the enemy force maintains over the horizon targeting capability and the landing zones are going to be saturated with targeting. We don't typically do half raids in that environment, right? There has to be some level of permissiveness for a conventional helicopter assault force raid to actually work. Or we have to limit or reduce the enemy capacity or capability at those landing sites and I don't think we can do it. Or rather, we can do it. We can put guys anywhere on the ground in Iran. We can put them probably on the ground right outside the Ayatollah's new apartment, but getting them back out again, that's the hard part, isn't it? Now, I must also state that I do have other plans that I have identified and I'm working through just purely based on my own scouring of the maps. I've been conducting terrain analysis. I have really just put the magnifying glass to every place in Iran as best I can and just for my own research in conjunction with what targets are being struck or more accurately not being struck, there are a few other places they could go. So, for the moment, I don't want to give the Iranians any ideas. Again, this would not be a super great idea to put this out in the open. So, I'm going to keep my thoughts to myself on that for now, but there are a few other options out there. They have equal chance of success with this, which is minimal. This is a high risk, minimal success, high risk, low reward mission set and that's just the way that it's going to be until you can reduce the ability for the Iranians to stop their missile and drone attacks and so far we're not even close to doing that, at least based on what we've seen so far. So, while the drones and the missiles are still flying, we still have these concerns and it's just not going to be feasible to put boots on ground, but again, they may try anyway and definitely keep everybody in your prayers if that's the case. But in a more grand sense, coming back again, wrapping this up in terms of grand strategy, all of these plans are possible. They're all possible. They're just not feasible and none of these plans that are being floated right now would actually assist in achieving the goals that have been stated, at least not without a military mobilization, the likes of which the United States has never seen before. Imagine the invasion of Iraq like times five. Like they're going to have to draft people. You want to go scoop the last Iranian Shaheed drone out of a cave? You're going to have to mobilize a million people, and I just don't think they're going to do that right now. It's preposterous. Maybe if things drag on for a little while longer, I don't know, but at the risk of using, you know, unnecessarily do humanizing language, it's kind of like, you know, an antiseptic, right? You can have some bleach hit a, you know, hit a cleaning service with 99.99% effectiveness, but that last .01%, you know, that's going to be some pretty nasty stuff, right? So, you know, again, I don't like using language like that, but it's best I can think of. And right now, the Iranians, yeah, you could knock out 90%, you could knock out 95% of their missile production and drone capacity, but all the Iranians have to do, the Iranians just have to hit one merchant vessel in the Strait That's all they got to do, and that's enough for Lloyd's of London to cancel insurance policies. That's all they got to do. They just got to hit one target a day, and so far they've been hitting hundreds of targets a day since this war began, and now it's starting to ramp up in effectiveness now that I suspect, again, speculation, but I suspect the Iranians are getting a lot of intelligence, a lot more intelligence than the Russians and the Chinese. It's impossible to know this for sure, but their missile attacks are increasing in both number and in their effectiveness. So, again, coming back to what the United States might do, you know, these plans, yeah, they're in the textbook, to be sure, but none of these plans are viable military objectives without a lot of pre-shaping fires that have not yet been conducted. We would need to build staging areas before we could get within helicopter range of any significant Iranian target, because again, our staging areas right now, which is basically every single base in Kuwait, is a staging area, that's what it was intended for, and that's what those bases are meant for. They're getting hit. So, you can't start putting tens of thousands of troops on the ground in these places, establishing a beachhead near the coastline, launching waves of helicopters from either Kuwait or Aldhafra. This is just not going to be feasible while the Iranians still possess a significant over-the-horizon targeting capability. It's just not going to be feasible. This is why it's it's so unfeasible that this is why most people don't seem to think that any of this will ever come to pass. This is why I used such serious language last week because conducting some sort of raid within Ir
Intel Update

Intel Update - June 27 - Pulled Back In - Maybe

Hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground. This is the intel update for June 21st through the 27th, 2026. Just when we thought the war was over, we get pulled back in, at least to some degree. This is of course no surprise, so let's get right to it. Around the world, it's been a busy week. The main focus this week has been overseas as the earthquakes in Venezuela have caused widespread devastation throughout the most populated cities, including the coastal areas to the north of the capital, as well as the capital itself. Mass casualties have been reported in all of the hardest hit areas and the death toll is expected to be in the thousands. Over in the Middle East, the war has reignited to some degree, though the full-scale targeting campaign has not returned just yet. These targeting efforts have substantially increased the danger to civilian mariners as disputes regarding the administration of the routes has been complicated by the targeting of merchant shipping. Here on the home front, there have been two items of note for this week which I've been tracking. First of all, has been the severe weather and flooding throughout the American South and East. Flooding has continued throughout the hill country of Texas and the following collapse of the weather system has spawned hundreds of storms throughout the eastern half of the country. On average, this is not really out of the ordinary for this time of year, but some areas have been hosted to more severe weather than is normally expected as many storms have swept through the nation. Also in Texas, a different crisis is developing as the spread of new world screwworm has continued to expand significantly. Right now, the total number of cases is still small, a total of 26 confirmed cases so far, but as with all parasites, this can greatly expand without anyone knowing. Considering that the screwworm larva is so small and hard to find on an animal, sometimes this can get out of control really fast, which is why we've gone from one case to 26 in just a couple of weeks. Just south of the border, where much of our beef supply comes from, the USDA has stated that there are over 30,000 confirmed cases in Mexico. This is why things might get a little busy here pretty soon. Concerns are also emerging that highlight some of the more illicit activity that might be going on throughout the region. It's extremely early, so data is limited and this is mostly gut suspicion more than anything else, but it's possible that illicit cattle practices might be contributing to the spread of this disease. For many, many years now, Central American cartels have relied upon diversifying their portfolios by trafficking not just drugs and people, but also beef cattle. Since cartels are not really inclined to follow safe animal handling practices, these cattle tend to be very prone to catching parasites like screwworm. And since they tend to launder cattle through legit businesses for import into the United States, it's impossible to tell if the cheeseburger you're eating came from a wholesome family farm in Oklahoma or a Mexican cartel. This is demonstrated by cases being reported at the same time in different places. The cases in New Mexico popped up at the same time as ground zero in Texas, and these locations are too far away from each other for the fly to have flown that far, which strongly indicates that it's not spreading from the point of detection in Texas, but rather infected cattle are probably coming across the border separately and going to many different places. I suspect that the spread of screwworm is far worse than anyone knows right now because all of the efforts within the United States to combat the disease, while certainly the right thing to do, it's going to not be as effective if it's running rampant throughout Mexico. Having a significant percentage of our food supply originating from the third world is not great for food security, but we're here now, and there's not much that can be done from our end other than monitor and isolate and try to get ahead of it. We will certainly keep an eye on it for sure. It's not worth panicking over, but definitely do not sleep on this crisis, either, since this has the potential to severely impact our beef supply later on this year. Moving now to take a look at the situation in Venezuela, it's not good. I have been trying to use a lot of the helicopter and drone footage to geolocate damaged or destroyed buildings, and it's been rather tough because a lot of these cities are just completely destroyed. All of these points that you see on the map are damaged buildings that are hand-picked by me as best I can and assessed to using the standard building damage assessment guidelines created and used by FEMA. Red are buildings which are totally destroyed, orange is heavy damage, yellow is minor damage, and green is mostly untouched. Most of the damage has arisen from the heavily populated areas along Venezuela's northern coast, which has been legendary and infamous for contracting companies using very poor construction materials to help build government housing projects in this region, which surprise, surprise, turn out to not be very stable. The geography of the terrain also adds to the vulnerabilities as mudslides have been a common observance here over the years with many tragedies taking place here due to this soil substrate not being very conducive to building large structures. Nevertheless, tens of thousands of people lived here in the Catia La Mar area because it was cheap housing with ocean views close to Caracas. This turned out to not be a super great idea as nearly all of these high-rise apartment buildings have collapsed and killed thousands of people. Speaking of the casualties, as with all natural disasters, the true number is hard to assess right now, especially since most of the response is centered in heavily urbanized areas where the population density is extremely high. Complicating factors also include landslides and terrain deformation from the earthquakes making roads impossible to transit outside the main cities, so a lot of the more remote towns are now cut off from major transit routes. Additionally, several aftershocks have continued throughout the area over the past 24 hours, which has made many of the barely standing buildings even more unstable, so it is very, very likely that many of the structures that still remain will probably collapse over the next few weeks. Since people are still living in many of these halfway destroyed buildings, the chances of more fatalities occurring is extremely high. A lot of people simply have nowhere else to go, so they live in what remains of their house even though it's very much a death trap. Venezuela was uh obviously not in super great shape before the earthquakes, and extreme levels of poverty and improvised housing efforts were common throughout the epicenter region for decades. The recent unsettling within the nation after the leader of their country was arrested by the United States also will be a complicating factor because on the one hand the national government is basically in shambles, but there also would be zero chance that the US would have been allowed in to help victims if Maduro was in power, so maybe that will balance out. I don't really know, but either way US Southcom is moving assets to help coordinate the response in the hardest hit areas. Just as a brief digression for a moment on the damage assessment efforts, there are a lot of people touting the use of AI for stuff like this, and I agree this would be a good tool for the job if it actually worked. But sadly in this case, it's just not good enough and produces so many false positives that it's not helpful. And just to show that, I will load in an AI-driven geospatial product that was compiled for this purpose. This is something that Google and I think Microsoft put together, and we can use this to compare and contrast what the truth really is. And just looking at the comparison between what the AI has given us and what I have assessed myself using helicopter footage of the damage, we can see that the AI is hallucinating pretty hard on some of this. Some of the buildings that are utterly pancaked are only listed as minor damage, and some of the places that are marked as destroyed are still standing. So in this case, it was a good try, it was a really good effort, but the AI models that are being touted and being used and and kind of circulating on social media for this, they're really only as good as the data that's put into it. And in this case, a satellite data with more precision would be needed. Preferably synthetic aperture radar, which would cut right through the clouds and make this a lot easier, but those images are very expensive, and in the case of extremely urbanized terrain, it's debatable as to if it would help anyway. So again, good try, but nothing beats the Mark I human eyeball. And even though the boom in AI has really kind of tried to motivate people to use some of these tools a little bit more more commonly than they've been used in the past, coherent change detection has actually been around for a very long time, and that's not an AI-driven thing. Some of these more AI-driven models are not actually that helpful. I just wanted to put that out there because as I was working on this last night, I saw a lot of people like trying to push a lot of these AI-driven models, and it just turns out, well, they're not that accurate. So I foresee this becoming a problem for the disaster preparedness and disaster response community over the years. So, hopefully things will either get better or we'll learn to not rely on tools that we cannot verify ourselves. So, this little digression shows us an important lesson. Just because we have data displayed in a way that looks cool, it doesn't actually mean that it's accurate or even helpful. So, for the products I'm making, the the few products that I can make, I'm trying to use evidence from the ground to assess the damage. And right now, the biggest intelligence gap, the biggest unknowns are the status of Caracas itself, as well as some of the more remote, but still heavily populated towns throughout the countryside. I have high-resolution imagery of Caracas after the earthquakes hit, but there has been cloud cover over much of the city for a couple of days, which has made it hard to geolocate anything. For me, my plan is to do what I can to get a good picture of the situation on the ground, so that any volunteer groups or agencies can be as prepared as possible if they start heading down there. Even though the sort of governance situation with Venezuela is kind of weird right now, I'm sure that there will be some groups heading down. I'm just not plugged into any of them just yet. But, for anyone who knows anyone heading down there who might benefit from some of my geospatial products, as always, everything I'm building is publicly available in three different ways. You can review my ArcGIS maps online just by tapping the links below, which will open up these maps on your phone's internet browser. And if you need more offline access, I publish these layers as KMZs for use with A-TAC or CalTopo, whichever platform your agency uses. And for the researchers who already use ArcGIS, you can pull my layers into your project if you want, because these are published They're published feature classes on ArcGIS online. For me, this is not just a worthwhile effort due to the mass devastation in the region, but it's also a good way to get those training reps in and get more experience in managing disaster situations, even if we might not be able to go to the physical area. So, definitely going to be keeping an eye on Venezuela over the next few weeks, because this disaster is probably one of the worst that that America has ever experienced. Jumping around the world to the Middle East for this week, the situation has deteriorated as Iranian forces have demonstrated that they control the Strait of Hormuz, and they are willing to enforce their tactical advantage with explosives. Over the past few days, several merchant ships have been hit with various munitions by Iranian forces as these vessels were taking the unauthorized Omani route to the south of the normal traffic separation scheme. When the MOU was signed and the strait was truly opened up to merchant traffic, many ships just went for it, and an administrative and organizational disaster rapidly emerged, and the experiences of every ship is individual and unique. Some ships were given permits and continued transiting just like they have been doing since the ceasefire went into effect. Some ships took any route that they could to get out of the Gulf. Some ships kept their transponders off and tried to sneak out between other ships, and many other vessels have remained at anchor as their owners have deemed the situation still too dangerous for them to make the crossing. Earlier this week, the International Maritime Organization worked with all parties, they even got the Iranians on board to conduct a rescue operation to get many of the stranded vessels and mariners out of the Gulf. However, continuing tradition, this operation was paused almost immediately due to the increase of Iranian and American targeting throughout the region. Turns out the Iranians did not really like the ships which were acting unilaterally and taking the Omani route instead of getting a permit and taking the Iranian route. And after about a week of this being tolerated and warnings being issued that the strait is closed, the Iranians' patience wore out and they started striking vessels which were doing their own thing on Thursday night. On Friday, yesterday, the United States retaliated by striking essentially an abandoned dock on Siri Island, also called Sirik Island. And even as early as this morning, it looks like another vessel was actually hit in the Strait of Hormuz once again, bringing the total to, I think, three ships hit over the past 24 hours within the strait. So, the escalations are continuing for the time being, but the good news is that this is unlikely to kick-start more serious bombing efforts because the United States has been drawing down resources from the region. This drawdown effort actually started last week, but I wanted to wait for definitive evidence that the US is actually moving resources back to Europe and not just pretending to move resources around. Most of the assets that have been relocated are aircraft as the US Navy still remains on station in the Gulf of Oman, but earlier this week the Air Force moved a bunch of KC-135s back to Al Udeid Airbase, which we can see on the satellite imagery of the base. This is a big indicator that the large-scale shooting is probably over because this base has been a fat juicy target for Iranian missiles and has been hit many times. So, the fact that the US Air Force is moving these airframes back to Al Udeid is a sign that the US does not expect a return to the more widespread targeting, which is good news. Honestly, this is a message that also works both ways. The Iranians clearly see this too and know that the war is pretty much done aside from the occasional strikes against each other's equipment. How this develops from here is going to vary by the day, even by the hour. And the biggest points of debate moving forward will be around the Strait of Hormuz and whether or not an arrangement can be worked out regarding the transit of the strait. But once again, the Strait of Hormuz is only one half of the equation at this point. The other side of the coin is Lebanon. So, aside from the situation in the Persian Gulf, there have also been some developments with the other main conflict of the region, the war in Lebanon. Yesterday, the White House announced the signing of a document between the United States, Israel, and the Lebanese government to establish a security zone in southern Lebanon. Just to cut right to the chase, this document appears to effectively legalize the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and allows the IDF to keep all of the terrain that they have taken so far and even take a new terrain with this amorphous security zone label. Now, if you think this sounds rather surprising and rather unfortunate for the Lebanese, rest assured quite a few Lebanese are also extremely upset about this and mass protests and riots have been ongoing throughout Beirut for the past couple of days. As you are perusing the photos of the signing of this document, the more astute among you might realize that someone is missing from the table, most notably Hezbollah. Yeah, of course Hezbollah did not agree to this. For those who are unaware, unlike in Gaza, the Hezbollah organization is not the actual ruling government of Lebanon, but Hezbollah does effectively control most of the terrain in southern Lebanon. Lebanese politics is always incredibly difficult to describe, but in general, the Lebanese government has always generally at every single step withdrawn to let the IDF invade their country over the past few decades, simply because they're just a small military. They're a small government. Hezbollah doesn't necessarily call all of the shots throughout the entirety of Lebanon. That's That's not true. Hezbollah has certain areas in which they operate and control. They certainly have strongholds, but to say that they control the entire country of Lebanon is is inaccurate. And the Lebanese government is kind of like the third wheel, to be honest, who doesn't get a lot of discussion these days because most people tend to think that Lebanon is simply just a failed state where Hezbollah runs supreme. And that's not true. The Lebanese government actually does wield most of the control in the northern parts of the country, certainly in Beirut. But down in the south, the Lebanese government, the Lebanese army, has mostly withdrawn from a lot of these southern border outposts and checkpoints, simply because they don't want their soldiers getting killed by the IDF, and they know that they're powerless against the Israelis because the Israelis have the American backing, right? So in fact, the signing of this document is the Lebanese government signing along to a deal that they can't enforce on their own. And they're essentially handing over terrain that they don't even control themselves. The people who actually control this terrain, Hezbollah, did not sign on to this deal and have not agreed to stop fighting the Israeli invasion. As a result, this alleged agreement is probably not going to mean much. So Lebanon is still popping off, no matter how much we want to, you know, declare victory and move on. It's still pretty hot. It's still going to be a point of contention. What the Iranians do in response to the signing of this document, how they treat it, and how they sort of feel about the Lebanese government is going to be very interesting to see, but all in all the Middle East is still on fire as always and even though the MOU has been signed, things are not getting back to normal fast enough. This was always on the menu. We have been saying this and expecting this for weeks now. Even during the height of the war, we knew this. But it is helpful to remember that once we transition from crisis to recovery, the process is still going to take a lot of time that the world simply does not have. And honestly, we have not even transitioned into recovery yet. It's still in kind of the amorphous pause between active fighting and recovery. The crisis is still going on and there really hasn't been a super solid solution for it yet. Now granted, this is what this 60-day period of negotiations is for. This is for ironing out the details of a more solid plan, which at the end of that 60 days, then that plan can come into fruition. But for right now, the crisis continues and unless there were 100 ships transiting the strait per day, this the very day that the MOU was signed, we're simply not going to catch up with the demand, so the crisis still continues. Going from 0% of normal traffic to about 10% of normal traffic certainly does not mean that the crisis is over. And since the shooting took place last night on both sides, both the Iranians and the Americans, it's not really clear where we go from here. The MOU is signed and in effect, but things are not returning to normal and only a tiny fraction of normal has been seen so far. And that's where we find ourselves at the end of month four of this conflict, a lukewarm peace with the occasional missile strike, very tepid traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, oil production remaining stagnant and everybody pretending like the impacts of the war are over. When in reality, we're still more or less in a similar spot as before the MOU was signed. Thankfully, some progress is being made, even though it's slow. But if the Iranians are correct in their assertions, it's unlikely that the global flow of energy will return to the way it was before the war. And now that some limited strikes are taking place once again, it's going to be hard to keep that fraction of global maritime traffic going over the next few weeks. So, wrapping things up today with the Ghost Net reports for this week, I have picked up quite a few transmissions on our little off-grid information exchange system. Lots of people, as usual, transmitting informational reports about their local area, which is fantastic. Summertime is usually the more popular time for radio stuff, and after the past couple of weeks of severe weather around the world, it's good motivation to make sure we are as ready and as prepared as we can be for whatever uncertainties lie ahead, whether it's severe flooding or earthquakes or even ballistic missiles. Maintaining contact with the outside world when an entire region is either devastated or locked down or both is incredibly useful. So, let's get at it and do what we can to have capabilities and options, no matter what happens. So, that's all I have for today. As always, all of my research and geospatial products can be downloaded at the links below. However you wish to visualize the data, there are different options available. Thanks again to all of you on Patreon. I could not do this work without your help, and thanks to all of you for watching. I really do appreciate it. And as always, fight in the shade.
GhostNet · 2023-10-01

Introducing: GhostNet

hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground today I wanted to offer a bit of a peek behind the curtain and talk about a project that we're currently working on I don't usually like releasing unfinished work but this one requires a bit of user participation to be effective so I thought I would get it out in the world and now and try it out so please keep in mind that this plan is a bit rough around the edges at the moment but it will be a lot more Polished in due time this project is the ghost net so what is the ghost net this is a multi-layered Communications plan to allow radio operators to communicate with each other efficiently using a variety of data modes this plan is going to seem really complicated at first but it's really a simple way to create Global Communications networks in as simple of a way as possible hopefully this will encourage users to begin using radio more in their daily lives not just for practice but for real world information exchange we cannot hope to replace internet-based Communications on the radio but hopefully we can start siphoning off some of that so that people can start getting you know Daily News Headlines local events happening in their area basic communication stuff like that people can start relying on the internet less even though we know that radios can't totally replace the internet from our end here we cannot possibly reinvent the wheel right we're not trying to replace or step on anybody's toes when it comes to Communications plans because there's a lot of comp plans out there already but we can provide our version of a standard common plan for everyone to use over time this plan is going to change but it's a good start for now now I can already feel some eyes glazing over anytime radio stuff is mentioned I I really get it but I would urge those of you who are not super interested in radio stuff to stick with me because this ghost net is really for people like you we're not building this with a radio operator in mind we're building this with the non-radio operator in mind so don't be turned off if something goes over your head right now I promise you we will be getting back to going over the basics in due time I just thought that in the interest of time and how crazy things are going in the world we should probably get this plan out there show how useful it is and then use that as incentive to get non-radio folks involved so here's how we've got this set up so far a lot of the stuff that we're going to talk about today relies on js8 call because it is just something that is really really easy for people to use and I think that the js8 call features of this plan are going to be used more than anything else but we're again bringing other data modes into this as well that's like the bare minimum if all you want to do is just bounce into js8 call Ping a couple of people see what's up get maybe exchange a couple of headlines and then dip out that's fine after the js8 call Window we've got other kinds of transmission modes you can send when link you can send news reports via ready and stuff like that all of this takes place roughly once a week so depending on your skill level if you again just wanted to do some JSA call work that's all this is you can tune in once a week to JSA call for your region and be good if you want to do some more advanced stuff or you link up with someone on js8 call maybe a new contact someone who you haven't talked with before and you want to send them an email uh you can link up on js8 call and then after that com Windows over you'll have a chance to send them an email when it comes to talking to other continents we really want to keep the low power operator in mind the qrp operator the guy that's got just a small qrp radio a lot of Developmental radios are coming out that are very very cheap they're very very cheap transceivers and they work best on data modes in you know qrp operations kind of thing so we want to keep those people in mind and because of that it's really it's going to be really hard to maintain consistent contact between say North America and Europe any time of day for the qrp operator if you've got 100 watts to blast out fine you can make contact with Europe on js8 call very easily at any time of day pretty much but in order to make the maximum chance of success and to kind of get everybody on the same page I think the real power here is just allotting like an hour or two during the Chan during the times when long distance Communications are most likely to be successful for the qrp operator we're calling these meetups data Bridges and these are all going to be on Saturday so if you want to tune in you can tune in on Thursdays which are when our js8 call Nets are and you can also tune in on Saturday at varying times of day depending on which continent you want to talk to I know this may seem a little bit complicated so let me walk through how a ghost net meeting will work the first thing you can do is download the free PDF document the the com plan itself and you can print it out laminate it or just have it handy for reference once you have the guide in hand or really easy to reference you can find the people that you want to talk to if you want to talk to just your region then you can find the page for that and if you want to talk to another region you can find the page for that and then use those parameters and wait until the com window and then try try to make your communication depending on what kind of communication you're trying to do so before we get into the Nitty Gritty details of this plan let's talk about some of the benefits some of the pros to using this kind of system for one it's equipment friendly it's a solid plan for allowing users to have a scheduled time for linking it with locals and distant contacts whoever you wanted to talk to switching from 20 meters to 40 meters is not as easy for users with single band antennas so having two different kind of plans one for local comms and one for like long range DX kind of stuff this allows for users to use the gear that they have more efficiently I know that if I'm using a single band antenna I'm going to probably just set up for local Communications local stuff on 40 meters and just call it a day right I'm not going to go through the effort of setting up an entirely separate antenna just to get some DX work and if I'm going to do that I'm going to have it one radio session a week you know out of you know my busy schedule to set up for you know long range stuff so this also means that users can pick and choose how they want to participate based on the time that they have if they only want to check in on js8 call fantastic you can do that and then dip out if you only need to send a few emails to a buddy fine you can link up during the time period and do it that way if you want to schedule like a teleconference or some kind of phone call over ale there's room for that as well speaking of more advanced stuff like ale users of all experience levels can be involved js8 call is what we would consider to be the absolute Baseline for everyone on HF radio to be able to run if you can get your gear working with js8 call or even just the original like ft8 you can do pretty much everything with regards to data modes more advanced users who have multi-band antennas and compatible radios can take advantage of The Cutting Edge of Civilian HF radio automatic link establishment programs like ion 2G ale while best served to leave running 20 47 is still a relatively new addition to ham radio so picking a specific calm window allows users to test their gear and be sure that others are indeed listening but more on ale a bit later it's it's quite complicated there's also room for variation anyone can take this template and create their own localized ghost net it's easy to copy the framework if the specific times don't work for you or your group you can always adjust things to be a little bit more personalized and finally like I mentioned it is created with busy people in mind for some people working with radios is a joyful hobby but for others it's an undesirable chore since we are trying to use radio as a tool to help us stay connected in these troubling times we want to make this whole system as easy as possible some things can't be helped like band conditions sometimes you might have to stay up late into the night to send an email around the world or to get news from your local area but we really want to reduce the impact that radio operations have on our business lives some people cannot dedicate an hour every day for this but an hour a week is reasonable other people who have a bit more flexibility might be able to make three or four calm Windows per week and stay a bit more connected with other regions around the world whatever you want to do the plan hopefully has something for you at the minimum if something is going down some world event is happening that you want to know about I guarantee you somebody's gonna be on the ghost net talking about it now with all of that in mind let's jump over to the ghost net guide and go over some of the details so right here on the overview page we've got basically what I've mentioned already we've got the core parts of the program kind of highlighted weekly js8 call Nets based on the region you're in on 40 meters we've also got data bridges on 20 meters or sometimes 80 meters depending on the distance that we're trying to make for more long-range stuff and those are going to be on Saturdays we've also got receive only options for those who just want to decode ready and just want to listen in Via S8 call this is why we've been talking about receive only options lately and for users that are a little bit more capable have a little bit more equipment to kind of spare for it we've got ion 2G ale networks for kind of what we're calling right now Communications this is just due to how Ale Works there's still a com window for it you could leave all of this stuff running 24 7 if you wanted to but for right now we're just kind of sticking to specific com Windows just to kind of reduce the burden on the average user now right here on the first page I wanted to address kind of a concern that a lot of people might have which is what about my baofang what about my analog VHF UHF handheld radio for right now I'm sorry to say that these radios don't really have a place in this specific comp plan I'm working on a separate comp plan to take into account line of sight Communications this whole ghost net is really about Beyond line of sight Communications being able to talk to people that are not in your say local area when I say local on HF radio I mean within the same state as you whereas with VHF and UHF radios which need to have line of sight to function these radios are going to be really really difficult to implement into a plan like I can tell you go to this frequency at this time of day and the ghost net will be active but I can guarantee you we'll have thousands of people around the country screaming into their bowel things and they're not going to hear anybody because they're just not close enough to anybody to make it work but fear not we're going to work with what we have right so we're going to be creating a whole separate plan or some kind of operating procedure I guess for what people have like bow things and stuff so don't think that we're neglecting these for now this is really just more of a strategic kind of thing top level uh wave tops kind of thing for now moving on to the second page we've got kind of again some more Concepts kind of laid out and talking more about how we've got mostly 40 meter networks on js8 call and winlink and stuff like that but we've also got data bridges for more long-range Communications again all of this stuff can be done 24 hours a day if you have the power you don't need to wait for a calm window the only reason that the com window exists is to get kind of everybody on the same page at the same time and increase the chances for a contact to be made I can tell you that you know sitting here at my desk most of the time I've got js8 call running in the background uh just kind of listening to see what's out there and if I see something you know hey maybe I want to make contact with somebody but it's just going to be very very sparse whereas if you have a specific you know an hour a week to dedicate to it people can uh people can actually do that that's something that's feasible for people to do same thing with data Bridges it just makes it a little bit easier for people to get all of their gear set up uh for a long range transmission if they've got a very small low powered rig moving on down to emergency C2 nodes we're kind of keeping in mind a lot of the stuff that we've learned so far about like warlord comms right the cool cool term that's come out lately we want to be able to have capabilities when it's a very desperate situation right I think it's very hard to assume that people are going to be able to hop on this ghost net when you know their house is burned down or something like that but we want to make sure that that's a possibility if if people are able to do it so these are just some thoughts on setting up emergency like command and control nodes or like emergency talk when the situation is quite quite desperate again this this might change as I figure out way better ways of rewording stuff but moving on down to the survivability uh page on the on the reverse side of that one this kind of points out some of the stuff that we have to give up if we're if we're looking for survivability I know that a lot of hams are going to look at this and say well this is just a simple con plan right this is really nothing new and that's true there's really nothing that's majorly new here right uh the only major difference here is that this is not being run or associated with any kind of agency right this is just a plan for people to use without being tied to a reporting agency we've already learned unfortunately throughout a few disasters that have happened lately how radios have become kind of weaponized to some degree regarding how they've been told to shut down or how they've not been allowed to turn on repeaters or stuff like that and you know the traditional ham role of being involved with stuff like Aries or Mars well you know we're finding out that it's it's a it's gotten complicated now you know it's not just as simple as a crisis happens and people show up to use their radios for good anymore because there's a lot of agencies that don't want that to happen unfortunately so again this this page just kind of highlights some of the problems that we're going to be dealing with as we're trying to create something that is more survivable than you know us here nobody's going to live forever and we want to make sure that this plan can serve as a good like guide for uh for for anyone out there regardless of what targeting may occur sort of along those same lines we've got kind of an architecture of privacy set up like this this ghost net here can fill a lot of different roles and here at the bottom of this page I've got kind of like the circles of trust look kind of laid out as they pertain to like radio communications I think most people are going to have a trusted sphere of people people like that they share a house with people that you live with immediate family stuff like that then you've got like a semi-trusted sphere of maybe like co-workers that you don't know super well uh you know they know your real name and they they probably may know your phone number but they don't know like your social security number or something like that uh and then you've got your public sphere of just total random strangers that you may uh contact now of course ham radio a lot of times is going to be in the public sphere right because call signs are very public and you can look up anybody's legit call sign due to the FCC not allowing anybody to have any sort of privacy whatsoever so uh we've got to keep this in mind and as we can see here the the kind of purple icons show where the ghost net can really be plugged into any one of these depending on how the situation goes technically as long as the FCC exists js8 call is not going to be private however if something happens in the FCC is no longer a concern anymore then we can actually use it we can actually use it in very alternative ways I'll just say that so so again the the ghost net here is kind of a multi-layered thing where you can use it however you want to you can use it uh in amongst people that you know people that you don't know and people that you sort of know right so there's many different ways of using the ghost net using the umbrella of the ghost net to kind of get your stuff done right so up next I've got kind of a what's the point page which is meant to sort of drive home some of these points uh just in case people aren't picking up what I'm putting down if you know what I mean but the key takeaway for this page is that hey things are pretty freaking serious now and uh there's a lot of people that realize this and they're getting invested in radios now that HF technology is getting a lot cheaper you can get a lot of you know developmental uh transceivers for very very cheap and you can get on HF radio and work some data modes using very little power and be very difficult to Direction find and because of this we've got to do better we cannot use like a prepper frequency plan from the 1990s we've got to do better voice comms as far as I'm concerned are very much a kind of like a dying art I I don't want to discount them entirely because there's just sometimes you cannot beat you know a human talking to another human being you know using verbal speech to get a point across right there's just no way to to replicate that in some situations however for 90 of all Communications on Earth can be done with text right so data modes are kind of the way forward and this page kind of hopefully outlines that next up we have our data Bridge overview and again this page is kind of Unfinished because we've got uh four data Bridges right now but there will probably be more added as people around the globe get interested the reason for breaking things out this way and not just having a 24-hour radio bridge is because again low power operators need the best chance of success if they're going to try to make contact with somebody they need to dang well know somebody's going to be listening during that time frame so if you're trying to talk from North America to Europe here's kind of an overview of how to do it same with Europe to Australia and Australia to the South Pacific and North America to Australia that's going to be probably the hardest one to to make happen as sort of a side note the extra data Bridge there for Australia to the South Pacific this is me kind of getting ahead of the curve with regards to geopolitical issues that may be taking place in the Pacific Theater if you know what I mean Australia is kind of the the front line when it comes to information exchange throughout the South Pacific if a prolonged conflict were to break out between China and you know Taiwan or something like that some kind of situation in the South Pacific Australia is going to be mightily concerned about that understandably so with that in mind I've created a whole data bridge and taking into account the fact that the South Pacific is a pretty big region on the earth and I think that they need their own data bridge for Australians to communicate with say like the Philippines or something like that uh they need that dedicated data Bridge just kind of we're kind of front loading the effort now to kind of get that out of the way right so moving on down we've got the ghost net schedule at a glance which is uh for Thursday and Saturday again we've got Thursday are the local 40 meter Nets and Saturday are the long range data Bridges so if you've got some spare time on a Thursday or Saturday you can you can check the time and maybe hit one of these calm Windows anybody who's capable can join into any of these calm Windows if they want to make some Communications right maybe even service some relays I don't know during the like the long range Halls you know people can kind of set up the the things that they want to do so yeah this is just a good way to kind of look and see at a glance what time of day it is and you know if you've got some spare time again the times for these specific Windows may change uh we're still trying to figure out if there are any other like larger Nets or some kind of you know random data bursts that are going to go through and uh make it really hard to send Communications during these time frames so again you know I can only look at things from my very small part of the world most of the people who've who've tested this out for us already are here in the United States or in North America so trying to communicate around the world is a little bit a little bit difficult especially when we try to try to work our com Windows around interference right so just keep in mind that we may have to shift these communications Windows based on interference or other Nets or something like that so um just just remember that as we move forward up next we get to the ghost net North America page now this if there's one page you're going to print out at home this should be the page this and the reverse side of it because this outlines what's going to go on every Thursday night and at what times so as we can see here the the top layer in the green we've got the js8 call Window note that it is not on the main js8 call frequency this is on an alternative frequency you don't have to use js8 call on the main js8 call calling frequencies so we've shifted it off of the main calling frequencies because uh it's probably going to generate a lot of traffic and we don't want to step on anybody's toes right so uh this is uh what you're what you're going to want to go for 7.105 for now again this may change but one of the cool things about js8 call in particular and one of the reasons why js8 call it seems like a simple program but it is such a powerful group messaging tool is that it allows you to create groups using the at symbol and then a group name which means I can hop on js8 call at this frequency during this time window and click uh you know put like at ghost net in my message and anybody who is following that tag will get an alert on their screen this makes it super easy to weed out any other Communications that are not part of ghost net stuff and more importantly if you have a subgroup so like you wanted to have a ghost net for your state or for your country or for your region depending on where you're at in the world you could absolutely do that and you would only get notifications if somebody is pinging you again if we're going to go big with this we need to prepare for potentially thousands of people to be on ghost net at the same time now js8 called by its very nature makes it very easy to separate out Communications and make sure that nobody is stepping on somebody else but for those of you who are receiving only it makes it easy for you to say all right this guy is in this state this uh guys talking about this event in this region it makes it very very easy so that you're not just on you know one channel you're able to differentiate out and have if your antenna is good enough or if you're using a good enough web SDR you can hear a lot of different states going at it and sharing information all at the exact same time without stepping on anybody that is awesome because you can have multiple news reports from multiple areas being put out a lot of people talking about local events battle tracking stuff and all kinds of cool stuff and uh nobody's really stepping on on each other so that's a really great way to use the organizational features within js8 call to monitor multiple Networks to keep things simple for the uh the next half hour in this com window is going to be for when link peer-to-peer as you guys know I've mentioned it many many times uh win link I am not a fan of when using the winlink telnet I don't I just personally don't like sending an email through someone else's server because I think that you know as winlink has a certain uh benefits to it I think the reason that they set things up that way is so that when link can serve as a way to get a message outside of like a power outage Zone to an area that has power and then use that to send an email using the regular internet I'm just not a fan of that I don't like the way the architecture is set up and this is just my personal preference but anybody with any kind of power whatsoever can say you know what this email does not get to go through the internet so they can shut that down based on call sign alone I don't want to have that potential so peer-to-peer is kind of the way forward using winlink to send an email from one computer and radio to another computer and radio with no infrastructure in between as we all know if you don't own the wires you don't own the communications and if you're using someone else's infrastructure such as a win link node uh that's not a good way to set up emergency communications in my opinion you can use it as much as you want fine if it works it works but don't put all your eggs in one basket so we've got the win link peer-to-peer frequency listed now again one person or rather two people are going to be using this frequency to conduct handshakes and send peer-to-peer messages so this is just like the main frequency for it I don't foresee this getting a whole lot of use but maybe it would I don't know I've made it the same as the js8 call window so that hopefully you can actually see it in the heartbeat section see a little bit of bleed over there in the heartbeat section of js8 call to see oh someone is is now sending a win link message you may step on a few heartbeats here and there but it's a good way for people who might stay on js8 call all for like a whole hour you know a lot of people don't want to stay on JSA call for just 30 minutes they might want to dedicate an hour to it but if they see a win-link message being sent in their js8 call waterfall they might say hey let me go check that out and see uh see who's sending that email so that's kind of the reason for keeping the same frequency moving down to the next window which is ready radio teletype right that old school classic I'm going to have probably several videos talking specifically about ready but uh ritty is a fantastic mode uh it's one of the I think it is technically the first Digital radio mode Maybe I'm Wrong on that but anyway this is a 30 minute time frame for users to gain experience with ready in due time I would hope that the community really takes this and runs with it because right now ready is basically dead except for contesting I Envision a day in the future when the average person out there can turn on a receiver of some sort and decode ready news reports regularly like thank can tune in like a submarine in the Atlantic during World War II and get the news headlines from around the world I think that would be super super cool like I've mentioned before riddy is absolutely perfect for sending out our wire reports literally the only thing holding me back from doing that is the legality but the technology works it's easy to do but the fcc's regulations on what constitutes broadcasting versus amateur use and the fact that there is zero way of Legally transmitting without eliminating privacy using a licensed call sign you know both of these reasons are why we're not transmitting wire reports on ready just yet but hey if the missiles start flying and we don't have to worry about the FCC or sad hands anymore uh you know where I'll be and finally the last window is going to be just a a hopefully mostly silent window uh just in case somebody has some kind of emergency right like I mentioned before I don't want to rely on voice so much at all because this just turns into a rag chewing session and the the ghost Net's not about that we're about information exchange so if somebody has an emergency or needs to make some kind of communication or relay something you can't beat human voice for getting that communication across but we don't want to rely on it as like a crutch or be potentially identified by it right so we want to allow for its usage and we don't want to discount it right because a lot of people out there are capable of of simple voice transmissions on HF radio but we don't want it to be a main thing so uh We've allowed a frequency and a com window for that just in case it's needed and on the back side of this page we have the data Bridges so if you are in North America these are the two data bridges that you can use um depending on the time of day they're kind of laid out very very similar so we've got basically just a simple js8 callnet and an ion 2G ale com window if you wanted to use that a whole hour for js8 and a whole hour for ale if you had that capability again ale is going to make a lot of this plan irrelevant hopefully by the time ale becomes a major thing on HF radio we don't need bands we don't need frequencies we just need a time of day to turn it on that's how Ale Works ale is going to be able to choose the frequency that best Works to make the communication happen so getting that time period nailed down now is going to be helpful for when ale becomes a much more common thing in the future so again the data bridges are all about efficiency making sure that people are in the right place at the right time with the right antenna on the right frequency to make these communications more likely to happen again if you've got enough power this is all irrelevant if you've got enough power you can just blast out any time of day you want and make these comps happen but again we're working with the lowest common denominator it does not matter if you've got a hundred thousand dollars worth of gear in your ham Shack if you cannot communicate with the masses so we're trying to keep the masses in in mind people who don't have thousands of dollars to spend on HF radio stuff maybe they can afford a 65 transceiver right so we're trying to keep those folks in mind and this comp plan is duplicated for Europe and for Australia so we've got basically the same thing if you're in Europe This is the card you use and again here are your data Bridges same thing with Australia this is what you guys have got and the same data Bridges now of course the times are changed uh to be more convenient for The Working Man right we want to keep people who are working standard business hours uh connected we want to make it so that people can get off work have some time to themselves and you know casually fire up js8 call on a Thursday night that's how we want to make things set up right so we've got that set up for Europe and for Australia now again the Europe group is not going to be talking to the American group and the American group's not going to be talking to the Australian group except on hopefully Saturdays when people have a lot more uh incentive and some free time to make those calm Windows happen for instance for me at least if I want to maintain contact with Australia I've got to get up at like five in the morning uh to make the to make it actually happen uh so that's not gonna be possible during the week uh because you know if you're already up and up and about doing other stuff but on a Saturday that might be possible if if you uh if you want so you know for me again for Europe the Comm window for Europe is going to be for me tuning in at around I think two in the afternoon so I can't do that during the week but you know during a weekend that's that's going to be possible so that's one of the main reasons for for separating out these data Bridges it's because uh if you want to have the best chance of success at hitting a different continent you've got to get up really early or stay up really late a lot of times to make these uh comms happen so you want to have your difficult shots to be made on the weekend where you can take a nap or something and you you can work around it you're not held down to a standard you know work day up next we've got a slightly different card which is talking about basic incident response a lot of people these days uh want to know what to do they want some kind of sop standard operating procedure right and this is kind of our quick stab at it from a Communications perspective basically something happens in the world something significant that is going to affect you personally maybe not for your local area but for maybe a region or something like that you can pick up this card and know what to do so basically this is just a quick reminder for you know taking care of your physical security first then start establishing Communications determine who's on the network who's on ghost net who's who's going to be uh talking and working this issue start putting together a talk and working through you know various staff functions then of course keeping in mind how the situation is going to change we can't always drop everything we're doing to track some world event so keeping that in mind and then you know what to do afterwards to improve your incident response through ghost net for next time and then on the back of that card are just a reminder of all of the intelligence collection methods that you can use second imit comment mazzant human and ocent all the different tools you can have to improve your intelligence collection capability just a quick little reminder up next we've got kind of a placeholder I've got a world time zone chart which I'm going to replace with a map that uh I'm making myself and on the back of that we've got kind of a platform overview explaining kind of like the the pros and cons of things like JSA call ion2g wind link and meshtastic now as many of you noted meshtastic is not part of this plan yet but it will be I'm working on making that happen uh we've just got to do a little bit more testing uh before we we dive back into meshtastic I know a lot of people think meshtastic is dead far from it meshtastic is has come Leaps and Bounds since we talked about it a couple of years ago so uh there's going to be more to come on on that very very soon up next we have document detailing how to set up ion 2G and configure things just a quick quick reminder guide ion 2G is not the easiest thing to learn as a beginner it's it's Leaps and Bounds better than anything that was out there prior but ion 2G is still a little bit complicated uh for for beginners to use so this is just kind of a quick guide to remind you as to how to set it up and then on the back are the frequency lists for the ghost net um I'm tempted to say ignore this for now because we're still working on the frequencies uh this document should have to go with it the config file uh so that you could load the configuration right into ion 2G and you wouldn't have to manually put any of these in I'm still working on it so these frequencies are probably going to change uh so yeah don't don't uh don't pay too much attention to this for now and then moving on to what I know a lot of people are going to be have questions on receive only options so this is just a very quick quick reference guide I'm of a reminder for people who might want to be setting up a receive only setup again this is going to have its own dedicated video just like we have already done with setting up listen only js8 call and then finally on the last page here we have a very crude last ditch receive only options thing basically if all you've got is a simple shortwave receiver here's what you can listen to and here are the best practices to get the most out of it during a crisis yeah I'm going to be expanding this quite a bit this is going to be changed quite a bit again this is a working product this is a working document and you know this is what you get when you when you're releasing something that is not exactly finished there's going to be a lot of changes so this is the plan as it stands now keeping all of this in mind now that we've kind of gone over the dirty details of this let's talk about some of the downsides some of the cons to this program to the to this plan here for one it's nothing new it's basically just a plan to use pre-established software um this isn't really a con on I guess but if you're expecting this to be some magical high-tech system you're going to be disappointed at its core ghost net is simply a predetermined set of frequencies and times of day which increase the potential for people to actually communicate and not just randomly blast out Transmissions to whoever's out there another con like I've mentioned before is that this since this is on HF for the most part you're going to need a license as long as the FCC exists this is going to be a concern however the system will function in an emergency just fine there are no Hardware locks that prevent unlicensed users from transmitting of course we are required by FCC regulations to mention that unlicensed Transmissions or against FCC regulations so I begrudgingly have to put this disclaimer in there but if the FCC no longer exists anybody with an appropriate radio can easily transition to this system another con is that for now a lot of people are going to be left out with data Bridges connecting large pop population centers individual users who fall between regions are bound to feel left out until we can specify more regions more data Bridges but fear not if you don't fall exactly within a region you can tune into the closest one for you another con is that was the many different plans things can get pretty confusing hopefully we can mitigate this by creating a guide like like we have so far that's going to allow users to Simply pick the region they live in and go from there on each card there are clear instructions for communicating within the region as well as other regions around the world a major con that I've kind of talked about already is that there are no VHF or UHF options only catering to the HF radio crowd is very limiting I understand this the ham radio Community is pretty small to begin with and the people on HF radio is even smaller it requires a higher level license and the equipment is really expensive so a lot of people get priced out or limited if they just got their tech license like I mentioned before do not worry we are thinking about a more Universal plan for VHF and UHF as well a more Universal plan is it's going to be really hard to do for VHF and UHF um because it's it's really needs to be made at a local level based on the local topography and what people have in a local area which is why I'm hesitant to do it and I certainly don't want to include it in the ghost net which is more strategic I mean it would it would take a long time and and actually be I think quite limiting because then we'd have thousands of different com plans I mean even if I were to do one for each state that's still 50 different com plants we've got to track and maintain uh eyes on so for now I think we're just going to have to stick with more strategic Communications for the ghost net and we'll we'll come back to VHF and UHF uh in a bit another con that people might mention is there are no voice modes that are standard right it doesn't include voice this is really just a data only thing I understand that voice Nets are extremely common and people who enjoy longer conversations are not likely to enjoy the ghost net too much but we have to keep in mind like I mentioned already that this is not for rag chewing this is a tool and even though it's a bit more difficult and it requires you know having a computer digital modes are the future of radio there's a reason why so many of our fellow ham radio content creators have focused on digital modes quite a lot it's not just the new hotness digital modes like ft8 js8 VAR AC or even winlink and ion 2G these tools are here to stay because they are efficient and fast of course we don't want to put all of our eggs in one basket and just do only digital stuff we want to allow for standard you know SSB voice and even stuff like CW we want to allow for these valuable tools because of how Universal they are I don't want to be banging out CW every day to spread news stories around but I do want to practice it occasionally and definitely have it in an emergency I've had a lot of you feel the same way about your favorite radio mode so we want to provide that opportunity for those that want it another con that I briefly mentioned earlier is that content from from us and me directly is going to be very difficult to do so you're not going to hear anything directly from me on it for now with privacy a major major concern for myself and others it would not be a swell idea for me to link my official real world name to the S2 project however we still have to play by the fcc's rules so a security by obscurity approach is really all we've got so my own Transmissions when I'm on it myself using my you know real name and stuff like that my Transmissions will simply blend in with all of you this this means that I can't tell you to tune in to X frequency at a certain time and hear me read the news I just I can't do that unless uh an event occurs that's so bad that the FCC and you know all sad hams no longer are a fact which is extremely unlikely to ever happen I desperately want to one day be able to say buy this radio download this calm plan and you'll be able to hear me no matter what I want to start putting out wire reports in the same way but we have to start with baby steps while we're thinking about how to make this happen and one of the best baby steps we can offer is simply a time and place for many of us to link up chat for a bit test our gear check our antennas and stuff and if we have the desire to exchange information here and there this may sound simple but it's a little bit complicated because there is again no net control there's no one person in charge no single point of failure and no single point of intelligence collection it's going to be way more disorganized this way I know this is probably going to be the only ham radio network that doesn't have a net control but this ensures the survivability of the network you can't cut the head off the snake if the snake has no head to begin with right when creating a long-term Communications plan we have to account for the net being able to continue even if we are not able to participate I'm not going to live forever so I would hope that in the event of my unexpected absence the ghost net can continue or at least be a good first step towards maintaining comms should the worst happen in a slightly more likely scenario since the ghost net is going to be comprised of many calm plans all taking place at multiple times of day I can't dedicate eight hours of my life to sitting on JSA call but I can hit my local network and maybe an overseas data Bridge once a week so in my personal absence if I'm not there the net is already there for people to use if they want over time I'm sure we'll all get a bit more acquainted on certain com plans and as time goes on we can start sharing responsibilities for more complex projects and that's really what this is all about the ghost net is at minimum A Simple Communications plan but it's also a way for us to grow together learn from each other and honestly get a little bit of reassurance I know it may sound a bit silly but whenever I turn on js8 call and I see that ghost net tag I know that there's somebody else out there in the real world that is on the same page as me it's one thing to talk to someone on the internet but when you are able to do something physical with your hands and see the benefit of your work it's really motivating because when you see that ghost net tag you know that whatever happens somebody will always be there ready to fight in the shade together
S2 briefing · 2022-06-11

Passive Air Defense and the Viet Cong

for it seems now more certain than ever that the bloody experience of vietnam is to end in a stalemate but it is increasingly clear to this reporter that the only rational way out then will be to negotiate not as victors but as an honorable people who lived up to their pledge to defend democracy and did the best they could when it comes to civil defense through the ages one of the most important topics is that of air defense that is defending against attacking aircraft so today let's take a look at some of the doctrine and lessons learned in the field of defense from aerial attack and what better way to do that than not through the eyes of just united states military doctrine but also the doctrine of one of the united states most formidable foes the viet cong now before we begin we have to yet again point out how large of a topic this is the vietnam war was the origin of most western suppression of enemy air defense doctrine and also the national liberation forces commonly known as the viet cong or vietnamese communists was one of the most dedicated civil defense organizations in recent memory we thought that this unique combination of factors makes a good platform to discuss the concepts of passive air defense from the side of the americans and that of the vietnamese if this seems a bit disorganized it's because it is us military doctrine is always written from the perspective of a global superpower that has near peer concerns or is trying to counter an insurgency but when it comes to average american citizens learning and studying warfare we often have to come at this from a different perspective so there's a mismatch we're studying the doctrine of the superpower but we have the resources and capabilities of the small hamlet in northern vietnam and when it comes to studying the vietnam war it's really easy to get overwhelmed not only was the war in vietnam an extremely complex and horrific conflict but so is the topic of passive air defense doctrine in this field has been developed ever since the first world war when aircraft were first used in mass to attack either other aircraft or ground targets so please understand that we cannot cover everything under the sun in the field of defending against an aerial attack but we can cover the basics so let's get to it when it comes to defending against attacking aircraft the preparations for such are usually divided into two categories passive defenses and active defenses in short passive defenses are the things that you can do to passively protect yourself or your unit from an attack and active defenses are mostly things like shooting back and directly engaging the hostile aircraft today we will be talking about passive defenses as active defenses is a whole other thing that we will talk about in a different video but understanding passive air defense is key to discussing more kinetic options later and to begin talking about passive air defense we actually briefly have to talk about something that's more in the camp of active air defense this seems a bit backwards but it will make sense later the absolute first step in passive air defense is to make the decision of whether or not to engage an aircraft if it begins attacking you this decision needs to be made now because it dictates everything else including your passive defenses now this decision is not simply a yes or no question but you need to get the criteria set before you even consider anything else you might decide okay we're going to engage rotary wing aircraft helicopters if they pop up over that ridge line over there but we're not going to engage fixed-wing fighters or you might decide alright we're going to attack helicopters that land at these potential helicopter landing zones near us but if they just fly by overhead on a recon don't take the bait and to show how important this concept is let's take a look at the doctrine of the vietcong fighting in vietnam cambodia and laos during the vietnam war captured vc documents indicate that charlie would place high priority on observation again with their doctrine pointing out how important it is to decide first whether or not to engage one captured document from early in the war states that in case aircraft are flying over densely populated areas where people are working or are gathered in a meeting and have not dropped bombs air defense elements are not permitted to shoot unless the people have withdrawn after that shooted aircraft only when they begin bombardment or landing of troops in this example the vietcong encouraged their fighters not to engage because engaging the aircraft would only reveal their position and the people that would bear the brunt of american retaliation were the civilians living in the village civilians that might not look too kindly upon the vc the next time they showed up if the vc brought nothing but destruction with them this is not just a confirmation of how important passive air defense is but also the importance that the viet cong placed on winning and keeping the hearts and minds of the local populace which is something that is absolutely vital in every single facet of conflict yet somehow overlooked in many cases so whatever is decided whatever criteria or scenarios are decided on as soon as that decision is made ensure that it is clearly disseminated to the entire team or unit make sure everyone knows what the plan is and what their role in that plan is now for the real meat of the matter passive air defense most passive air defense is intended to protect you from attack without you actually doing much work at all i.e passive right and as such passive air defense itself is broken up into two main categories attack avoidance making sure the attack never happens in the first place and damage mitigation measures to decrease damage that might occur if preventing the attack fails so up first avoiding the attack in the first place the main way of doing this is camouflage if we take a look at what the americans think on this various us military manuals further break this down into yet more doctrine to memorize for instance army training publication 3-01.8 breaks this down into three further categories sitting discipline and construction sitting is the practice of selecting the best spot for an air defense again like we mentioned in the beginning if you have made the decision to engage or not engage attacking aircraft you might choose different spots depending on what you decide again the vietcong had this concept down pat for charlie campsites and temporary hole-up sites were raided based on three criteria number one the hamlets of the village and the area surrounding them must provide terrain favorable to defensive operations number two the areas surrounding the defended perimeter must provide little protection for attacking gvn troops and number three finally there must be no obstacles such as rivers or highways that impede a subsequent withdrawal so for the vietcong the concept was pretty simple a good site afforded good protection for them little or no protection for the enemy and was easy to escape from if things got hairy this is not just useful for air defense but for defense against ground attack as well we can also see how important it was to choose a good sight based on whether or not we plan to engage aircraft a site that offers the most protection from an attack might not be the same site that offers the best chance of success if we ourselves need to engage for instance a position deep down in a steep valley will limit the number of vectors that an aircraft can use to attack us due to terrain so if we're trying to get as much cover as possible deep down in the valley might be an option however if we're planning to engage high up on the ridgelines might be a better place where we can engage aircraft from a similar altitude that aircraft might be flying at or better yet fire down upon helicopters that might be landing in the valley below this is very similar to what the vietcong did during the battle of outback though the terrain for this battle was mostly flat the vc were able to pick positions that offered the most defense from americans landing troops in helicopters by exercising patience and exploiting the overconfidence and over reliance on technology by attacking arvin and u.s forces the viet cong were able to successfully engage 15 american helicopters landing in the rice paddies across from their position destroying five helicopters in the process and securing the first major victory for the viet cong in the vietnam war we will examine this pivotal battle further when we talk about active air defenses but the key takeaway for now is that the viet cong through superior passive air defense were able to camouflage and conceal their true numbers which were much larger than u.s military intelligence indicated the vc were also able to conceal their positions until arvind forces were just 30 yards away positions that were specifically located to provide concentration of fire on helicopter landing zones passive air defense is crucial for active air defense to work and this battle proved it in the prelude to this battle the viet cong picked the absolute best terrain to defend and their choice of sitting in the right spot ensured their success up next is discipline discipline refers to overall camouflage discipline not leaving tracks that an aircraft can spot using the best personal camouflage and camouflaging equipment as best one can again the vc demonstrated superior tactics in this category as well which they are infamous for the vietcong have been one of if not the most disciplined fighting force that the united states has ever fought against this is not just because the vc were willing to accept astounding casualty rates but because they rigidly adhered to camouflage practices and this discipline goes back to before the viet cong even existed the french fighting the viet minh the predecessor to the viet cong in indochina in the 1950s learned this all too well in his book street without joy the french debacle in indochina bernard fall describes this camouflage discipline very accurately in the following passage he writes here and there a small group of men advancing single file through the high grass was caught in the open by a french reconnaissance plane but by the time the plane had made a second sweep the enemy would have disappeared from the path and blended into the surrounding countryside in view of the french mastery of the air the viet minh troops had made a veritable fetish out of camouflage the greatest pains would be taken even in safe rear areas to camouflage anything which could offer the french a suitable target this constant emphasis on camouflage carried out relentlessly even when at rest made the communist soldier as well as the civilian population unbeatable masters at the game the palm leaf helmet of the communist soldier with its constantly worn camouflage net on it was the major trademark of the regular in addition every regular vietmen soldier on the march carried a large wire mesh disk on his back and head adorned with the foliage of the terrain through which he was passing as soon as the terrain changed it was a responsibility of each soldier to change the camouflage of the man ahead of him as the surroundings changed rarely would a communist unit be in too much of a hurry to not take the time to change camouflage when it left a dark green forest to enter a lighter green grassland area or the marshy brown of a rice field about to be harvested i just know the little bastards are somewhere around here was the standard complaint of the french reconnaissance pilots but go and find them in this mess finally we come to construction constructing both cover and concealment as required using natural materials hiding blending and disguising one's position from overhead observation in the years following the war the elaborate jungle fortifications of the vietcong called home have become legendary and the dedication to surviving b-52 bombing raids was a huge part of the average vietcong soldier's worries in fact chiron nu tang wrote a lot about this in his book a vietcong memoir an inside account of the vietnam war and its aftermath though he was a very high ranking individual by the time he had to resort to hiding in the jungle he spends a lot of time talking about how terrifying and devastating the b-52 bombing raids were and how much time soldiers spent defending against them for the most part vietcong soldiers would prefer to egress from the area entirely in advance of a b-52 bombing run but truong recounts just how much dedication was given to the constant digging of earthworks tunnels and jungle fortifications he writes when neither sick nor fighting the gorillas spend their time building bunkers raising vegetables and training constant training it was a life of hiding and preparation hiding from attacks preparing to meet attacks or training to carry out their own missions if there was a half-day break in some movement either away from or toward an engagement they would dig trenches and bunkers within this category we also find the use of decoys to lure enemy aircraft into attacking positions that are empty rather than the truly important positions again captured viet cong documents from 1962 and 63 highlight the importance that charlie placed on decoys early in the war recently enemy artillery shelling and strikes have been relentlessly conducted against our routes combat fortifications sites of repeated attacks by friendly forces frequently used assembly areas such as road junctions and intersections uncamouflaged trenches etc to prevent the enemy from bombarding the villages we must use deception by setting up dummy troop locations in little frequented areas far away from roads and hamlets these dummy positions must be camouflaged but not thoroughly enough to make it impossible for the enemy to see them a dummy anti-aircraft position will be set up two or three hundred meters away in order to attract the enemy fire and avoid his destruction of villages and hamlets now to me all of this is well and good but breaking things out into sitting discipline and construction sound kind of redundant to me the entire subject of attack avoidance can be summed up in one word camouflage so if you want to skip reading a couple of chapters of army manuals you can summarize this very simply and quickly attack avoidance is simply following the absolute best camouflage practices which will reduce the chances of an adversary using the factors of recognition to locate and identify you plus the caveat of choosing the best location will allow you to either engage aircraft or have cover from attacking aircraft depending on what you want to do so camouflage your position as best you can and if you need to engage aircraft choose a good spot for it the other category in the field of passive air defense is damage mitigation now camouflage itself is a form of damage mitigation after all an enemy cannot usually hit what they cannot see but the other way is dispersion dispersion is one of the most important basic soldier tasks in existence and it is one of the hardest things for untrained or scared personnel to do dispersion is simply the act of spreading out your forces so that a single munition cannot cause many casualties clumped together in groups and that creates a juicy target for even just a single 30 millimeter round again we see how the vietcong used dispersion to their advantage in conjunction with camouflage one viet kong soldier writes next to hoamai is ben min campsite this campsite is regarded as a very good one the site is large and is covered with dense foliage too the width of the campsite gives us a special advantage it confuses the gvn artillery about where to shell now the concept of dispersion is an utterly terrifying concept for those who are not experienced with getting shot at for a living for civilians or non-combatants living in our modern world there is nothing so terrifying as lying in a foxhole alone while an aircraft is attacking your position humans naturally want to be together with their team when they're getting shot at so care must be taken to ensure that everyone disperses appropriately despite the fear this also often applies to professional soldiers as well especially those who are used to having aerial superiority on their side and off the other way around the good news is that attacks from ground to aircraft are very survivable if the right precautions are taken of course there are thousands of possible munitions that aircraft can carry but for the most part your average pilot is going to be looking for juicy targets equipment vehicles emplacements fortifications really anything but a single guy in a foxhole and if your group or unit is nothing but a bunch of dispersed individuals and foxholes that will make you a very hard target so let's recap passive air defense consists of two parts attack avoidance and damage mitigation before doing anything decide on the criteria for fighting back and engaging the attacking aircraft avoiding the attack is as simple as embracing the best tenets of camouflage and based on your decision to engage picking the best location in which to either take cover or engage the aircraft and just in case you can't avoid an attack disperse your forces as much as feasible in order to mitigate the damage that does occur from an attack so as we can see it's pretty simple but let's briefly sidestep for a minute and talk about special considerations for convoys convoys being attacked from the air and from the ground have been a kind of hot topic lately so we can briefly touch on some specific tactics that can be used to passively protect convoys from aerial attack convoy defense is another big topic but since we're talking about it now let's go over some passive air defense tactics for convoys convoys by their very nature are very different from static locations in placements or installations convoys naturally consist of large objects all arranged in a line usually traveling on a road surface that is different from their color so we've got some serious breaches of camouflage doctrine here right off the bat if we look at the factors of recognition we can see how troubling this is position vehicles are positioned on the most conspicuous thing in the area the road shape long lines of vehicles can be seen from extreme distances from the air and naturally draw the eye shadow the shadow underneath vehicles in combination with a smooth road surface is very eye-catching texture vehicles will have a different texture than that of the road surface especially in the rain color unless driving on a dirt road in the desert it's unlikely that vehicles will match the color of the road's surface movement convoys by their very nature have to move and the dust that is often kicked up by convoys can be seen for miles away shine windshields and windows can't really be covered up because they are needed to drive and for security presenting shine hazards so we can see when it comes to passive air defenses for the convoy we have got quite a few challenges to overcome choosing good routes that offer natural concealment in the first place would be preferred though when it comes to military convoys even the convoy commander might not have the authority to deviate the route so in these cases you might be stuck if you can choose your route you will obviously have to weigh your priorities you might want to stick to tarmac to avoid dust being kicked up but if the only paved road in the area is an ied alley you might want to put up with the aerial threats that dust brings and roll across country then again you might be more concerned about leaving tracks or even worse getting stuck or bogged down in the mud on the open field or any other number of problems that might come up by traveling cross country the point is when planning your convoy route make sure to take these things into consideration we're not just concerned about ieds anymore there are certainly threats in the skies now too the timing of the convoy can also help greatly scheduling the convoy for night time even in an age where no one truly owns the night anymore would be preferred nighttime conditions make detection more difficult even with all of the high-tech surveillance equipment out there just like pretty much everything else take advantage of bad weather to travel by notice a trend here like clockwork traveling in bad weather during precipitation or with an overcast sky at a low altitude is paramount as we have stated many times bad weather is your friend when it comes to avoiding aerial surveillance now it's not foolproof of course and most fixed-wing ground attack aircraft can operate just fine in the rain but again all we're trying to do is reduce vulnerabilities not eliminate them entirely that concept also applies to reducing shine or glare from vehicle glass such as windows headlights tail lights and the windshield now to be honest there's not much that can be done about this in most cases the manuals tell you to cover as much glass as possible with mud or a poncho or even paint it with a non-reflective paint in reality very few people are going to do this but it is not unheard of for units to paint over windshields leaving just a small viewing port for the driver to see through though this is very very dangerous and not really practical for a convoy on the move speaking of being on the move one of the main defenses for military vehicles at least is the use of smoke to obscure the precise location of a vehicle now smoke is a big topic and we're going to talk a lot more about this when it comes to active defenses but it's worth mentioning now because smoke must be planned for remember how we said you have to make the decision of whether or not to engage before anything else well the use of smoke is super important to consider as well because if your convoy's plan is to engage the aircraft the use of smoke will impact your ability to engage the aircraft you don't want to pop smoke and blind your gunner who's trying to lay down some hate at an attacking aircraft you've got to choose what you're going to do and communicate that effectively to everyone ahead of time especially if you plan to use smoke smoke is normally used after you've already been detected like for instance if the aircraft has already made its attack run you can pop smoke and maybe confuse sensors just a little bit because as we know even just avoiding a missile hitting your vehicle from a few feet away that can mean the difference between life and death right so if we can confuse the aerial platform sensors by just a few feet that might make the difference smoke can also be a helpful decoy to distract from the true location of your assets before you're spotted too smoke draws the eye so it might be helpful to use smoke to direct the attention of observation aircraft which will surely check it out as with all other decoys the use of such decoys is not without risk if the enemy knows that a certain tactic you're doing is a decoy or a fake out they will be even more intent on discovering the real target since decoys are often located next to high value targets so when it comes to defense against convoys it also sounds quite simple maybe with a couple of extra steps to make sure camouflage efforts are effective well not so fast this is a great example of the trouble you can get into if you only read u.s military manuals you see all of this sounds well and good until it's you in the convoy then we have some contradictions for instance a common russian tactic is for helicopters to serve as a sort of aerial indirect fire platform the russians in particular are fond of this climbing attack in which they approach ground targets at high speed and low altitude then pull their nose up at a steep angle climbing up in altitude sharply at the top of their arc they fire their rockets at a steep angle at targets very far away slinging their rockets as far as they can while still being far away from the target we saw this kind of tactic being used in ukraine kind of a lot and many western observers think that this tactic is done in order to avoid man-pad threats which which makes sense or because pilots are scared to get close to their target but the mi24 actually has fire control systems on board to assist with this type of targeting so it's definitely more doctrinal than we think it's not just some you know russian bubba pilot just slinging rockets because he's too scared to get to the target now it's actually more doctrinal than we actually think but in any case it's hard to imagine unguided rockets being slung out of a launch tube in this manner being accurate at all and the observations in the field confirm this it's a very inaccurate way to fire rockets so what's the moral of the story and why does this matter to convoys well this specific tactic is just an illustration of how a convoy might not know that they are under an aerial attack they might think it's a ground attack or an ambush and the choice of what to do varies widely based on this distinction for instance the global war on terror has brought us classics like counter ambush tactics at this point it's pretty much common knowledge that if your convoy gets ambushed you do not stop you push through it you what quote get off the x or out of the kill box makes sense for ground convoys right we've gotten really good at this but what if that ambush turned out to be an aircraft attacking from so far away that you didn't see it in that case pushing through it and getting off the x might make it easier for an aircraft to target you especially if you were a hit in a wooded tree line and you push through it and to get into the open into an open clearing in that case pushing through it might make it easier for an aircraft to target you or make it more difficult for friendly air defenses to engage the aircraft in the heat of the moment when you're getting shot at or explosions are going off right outside your door when you only have seconds to react what are you going to do are you going to break out your vehicles and disperse them in a herringbone pattern or are you going to push through it just in case it's an ambush you don't know what's happening all you see is explosions up and down the convoy what if it is an ambush and you decide to disperse now you've got your convoys scattered on the x pretty much the worst thing that you could do what if a vehicle is disabled does that change your decision clearly these are hard decisions to make and we cannot possibly indicate what the right decision might be in a simple video here however we can say that generally speaking it is better to make a decision and stick with it rather than be indecisive in this situation even if you make the wrong decision this is preferable to not making a decision at all the whole concept of passive air defense is very simple but simple does not mean easy and all of these simple steps will require significant effort dedication and discipline over time to be as effective as possible and remember passive air defense is the first step in active air defense which we will cover next so stay tuned and if you want some further reading on the subject check out these publications and resources so thanks again for watching thanks for all of your support and we will see you next time and as always find in the shade
ATAK / WinTAK · 2021-03-16

ATAK (WinTAK) How To: Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance: A Primer

[Music] hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground so today we're going to be taking a look at atac or more specifically wintac and how you can use it to plan missions so as you can probably guess atac is a very useful platform and it can do a lot of things in fact it can do so many things that people have a hard time trying to contextualize and sort of understand exactly what atac can do so today we're going to be running through a fictitious scenario and showing how atac can be a valuable mission asset in the civilian world as well so we're really not going to go over any one particular feature today we're just going to be playing around and messing around with wintec and showing you some of the different things that it can do attacking or wintec in this case is not perfect in fact atac the whole tack family of products wintac is is by far the the most undesirable in the atac community because it has a lot of issues and it's not really a priority for development it's not quite as as gucci as the atac apps however we find that using wintac for mission planning is pretty useful considering that you have the power of a pc computer and you can use a mouse and other things as well you can it's not it's easier to do things on a laptop than on a phone so let's uh let's go through our fictitious mission scenario all right so exercise exercise exercise all that jazz mission scenario you have received reporting through local information sources that unknown aircraft have been staging at your local airport intelligence reported through your human networks indicates that the aircraft are staging at the airport with more aircraft arriving periodically your mission is to establish a covert observation post from which a rotating team can observe aircraft landing at the airport once the covert observation post is complete your task is to conduct visual reconnaissance of the airport as well as any aircraft landing or taking off you are required to log every aircraft that may be on the ground and where they are parked reporting back sitreps every hour you are responsible for your own support there will be no chance of aerial resupply and ground-based resupply will not be guaranteed as a result you are responsible for all mission planning and have nearly unlimited leeway for how you complete this mission so yeah in the civilian world this might be all of the information that you get no formal pirs no eeis your entire intelligence collection mission might result from a five minute phone call or a text message exchange and it's your job to organize plan and carry out the mission you do not have a battle staff to help you you will usually be on your own so for all of the real military and government analysts out there please keep this in mind as we're going through this we're looking at this through the lens of the civilian world and as such we do have a few assumed factors for this exercise to make it a little bit more easy in the training environment for one the weather we will assume a broken cloud ceiling at 15 000 feet msl above mean sea level that will move into a full overcast ceiling by the time we sp or hit the start point precipitation is not expected during the duration of this mission the elevation of the airport is right at around 5700 feet so that means that as we're standing on the ground we're going to have about 9 300 feet of clear air space over our heads this is good for evading detection for unmanned aerial systems that won't be able to fly down below the cloud ceiling so really we're just looking at terrain masking from terrestrial collection efforts if there are any and as far as electronic surveillance we're going to assume that cell phone stingrays will be operational in nearby city and that aircraft landing in the airport might have like gilgamesh boxes or dirt boxes on board as well and on the counter surveillance front we're going to assume that limited counter surveillance efforts will be conducted but they will be limited to the immediate perimeter of the airport so that's pretty much it just a quick and dirty hey let's go figure out what's going on over there type mission all right so here we are in wintec so also just for simplicity's sake and to avoid a lot of the frustration that comes with a an online imagery source i have go i've went ahead and downloaded to my computer imagery for this area so in this green box here it's already pre-loaded so we're going to first the first thing we're going to do is load in our sort of target right we're not actually connecting targeting here but we need somewhere to to uh to go off so we're going to go up here to the top left click import manager and import files because lucky enough our source gave us a kmz so as you see i already have a few here but i'm going to click this one and that's going to be it it's going to take a minute to load okay thank you import manager so let's go over here to our overlays see it kind of glitched out for a second all right here we go let's see file overlays we've got kml loaded in there and as you can see we have our target airport kmz and that's it there's only one point in there see this is what happens when you're in the sort of civilian world you're not going to get a full pir list and it's not going to be specific you might just get a grid and that's it so uh just as a side note i've got another one loaded in here just from messing around a little bit but so if you wanted to delete another one just to make things more simple you go up here select it and delete and that'll delete it so now really we've only got this 1kml file is one target right there and that zooms it to it so uh when i'm looking at this airport i'm looking at it looks like a fairly civilian style airport right nothing super duper special about it i did choose this location randomly this airport has really no major significance i only picked it because uh it has a lot of good terrain nearby so that we could use our 3d functionality in wintec pretty well so i just picked it because it it will allow us to check that out a little easier all right so the first thing i want to do is figure out where i'm going to put my lpop and as you remember one of the very few requirements of this mission is to be able to see the runway be able to see the parking zones uh see aircraft on the tarmac and be able to identify them so we need to be close enough to figure that out but we also need to be close enough or further far enough away to where we're going to avoid that counter surveillance and avoid that stingray electronic surveillance down here to the southeast and they said in the urban area so what we're going to do is i'm just just looking at this i can look and say all right cool it looks like there's a mountain range here this is more of a valley floor here i'm going to guess that my recon site is going to be up in this area somewhere this is just me looking down at it on the map but let's be absolutely sure so what we're going to do to figure out what you can see [Music] from the ground we're going to do what's called a view shed now a lot of people tend to sort of explain the view shed a little bit wonky but it's actually quite simple so let me go ahead and zoom in here to what i want to be able to see from far away and let's go ahead and zoom in here today to the aircraft parking area so what i'm going to want to do is go to elevation tools let that load for just a second now on your computer of course this will be much faster the only reason that it slows because i'm not using a terribly good computer for this and the screen recording software takes a lot of a lot of cpu power so once we've got elevation tools opened up here we have three menus at the top we're going to click view shed and what we're going to do is uh set our height above marker at five feet we're just going to leave that there i'll explain what that means in a minute just remember that it is set at five feet now we're going to set our radius to be something quite big in this case 15 kilometers and we're going to keep the intensity at right around 40 or so we'll show you what that means in a minute but basically the 40 is just to make sure that you can still see the ground you can do 100 then you won't be able to see anything but um next we're going to select the marker so we're going to click this button right here as you can see right here on the map you see tap a marker or location on the map pretty simple we're just going to click on the map so this is a view shed i'm going to go ahead and exit out for just a second i'll show you what this means and the way view sheds work is if you are a five foot person or in this case a five foot target uh standing at this little eyeball symbol you can see everything in green there's clear line of sight to everything in the green everything in red you can't see so as if we go ahead and and tilt the map a little bit you can see that obviously the low-lying areas are in red because you're probably obscured by things like buildings and other terrain features but if you look upwards towards the more higher terrain you can see obviously this mountain here you can you'll be able to see and then over here you won't uh you won't be able to see that from the ground because you come up over this ridge so this is very handy this allows you to more easily select and figure out a good site to go from so this is of course one of many tools and the reason that i set this at 15k you know obviously it's obviously not ideal to be able to surveil a target from you know 10 miles away or so but this just shows the function so let me go ahead and pick a good spot and we'll come back to this in just a second all right so i've got a good spot picked out and what i'm going to do is turn off the view shed for just a second so i'm going to open up my elevation tools again go over here and click remove view shed and we will come back to that in just a second and let me turn on the point that i found by going to overlays let that load for just a second yeah it's really slow here let's go to spot spot marker there we go and that's the place i found so this is just you know of course a good training exercise right so as you can see it's here let me go ahead and tilt the map for you a little bit if it doesn't want to freeze up on me there we go so you see it's right here up on this hill um it's got not a whole lot of cover there um but we'll we're not really so much concerned about that right now are we so um yeah this is a decently good spot it's right up there on the ridge line honestly i would probably move it down so that you could move it down to like the military crest here so you're not silhouetted against the ridgeline there but whatever this works for training exercises so what i'm going to do is tilt this back north and we're going to do another view just to make absolutely certain that this spot can see the target and it gives us some ideas of what this place can see so let's go over to view shed we'll do it 15k again five feet above marker so a five foot person standing at this point right here i'm gonna do it a little bit down the hill a little ways and let's go ahead select the marker and click right there that should give us on this side of the ridge and yeah that's a pretty good once i zoom out here that's a pretty good view shed so as you can see if i'm if i'm a five foot person or sitting in a five foot above the ground level position at that little eyeball i can see the entirety of the target this position is not too bad it gives me good command of the a good portion of the valley a good portion of the city down here as well but then it also is right there on that ridge line right there on that edge of being able to pop back over pop back into the red and not be have direct line of sight to the target which is always a good thing just in case right so this looks like a pretty good site now of course we could do a lot of other videos selecting this sort of thing but this is really just to show the the uh the features of atac so let's say that this is the site i want so let me go ahead and turn off or actually let me leave the view shed on i was going to turn it off but let me let me go ahead and put some contour lines on the map here in the elevation tools as well let me show the lines i'm going to leave them as this sort of orangish color let me let me make them yellow actually so you can see them a little better so yeah this does confirm to me that yup i'm right there on that nice ridge line it looks like it does get a little steeper over here and it's a nice sloping downhill area and then there's another valley over here looks like a looks like a box canyon or something going up this way yeah there's a lot of different a lot of different stuff going on here so i'm going to go ahead and turn those contour lines back off and i'm going to go to my view shed and turn my view shed off i'm going to turn the heat map on just to just play around a little bit show you what the heat map is this shows you the high spots are red low spots are blue as you can see that shows you how that works not as not as ideal and obviously the more you zoom in the more detail you're gonna get but it's heat maps are not really a good thing unless you're building a product or product or something like that all right so let's turn that heat map off and let's let's get out of this and let's say that we need to get to this site obviously right we need to get there somehow so i'm going to start looking around and let's say that i am going to find a good spot to park let's see here i found one earlier when i was just messing around i think this one's it yeah so this is a good looks like a good two-track road but just in case we want to verify that that road is wide enough for a vehicle to get down let's go ahead and go to the range and bearing up here at the top left and then we can click measure and then we can click and drag to measure there we go and then once we sorry hang on things hang up just a second we could tell a lot of stuff about it we could open up the metadata over here once it loads and it will tell us that that is 13 feet across or 4 meters or 0.00 nautical miles right and which what bearing it's along as well and mills as well if you need that sort of thing so that's that's kind of handy to have so this tells us that road is in fact 13 feet across and that is more than enough for us so let's go ahead let's go ahead and cancel that and we will delete that as well all right so we're going to let's say that we want to park right here um just me looking at this map just from not really being familiar to all this area it looks like a pretty well used especially well used for considering how remote this area is and the elevation profile this area is insane but it looks like there's a nice little maybe a little stream dry riverbed right there so let's go ahead and say we're going to park right here so what we're going to do is i know i skipped right over dropping a point so i'll show you how to drop a point right now using the point dropper let that load for just a second all right so over here on the point dropper this is the kind of cool part you have a lot of different icons and stuff that you can use so we're just going to use the spot map for a while these are just different colored dots all right different colored dots that you can put on the map we're going to use green for now so let's say that i want to use this road for infill and then break off and hide a vehicle or something let's say let's try right about there all right so let's go ahead that comes across as g1 it automatically named labels it green one right so let's go ahead and change that name to vdo vehicle dismount operations this is where we're going to park our vehicle and get out and start walking alright so if we want to do that what we can do is we can use attack to figure out the best way to get up there so let's say that you can see this is kind of a good distance away here let's see how far it is via as the crow flies all right looks like 3 750 feet right so let's put that in kilometers yep so a little over a k right so that's as the crow flies and as you can see that is going to be a very if we were to walk straight there that's going to be a pretty significant elevation change and handy for us right here on the range and bearing page at the bottom right you can click elevation profile and this is an interesting tool this is one of the more interesting things and more useful things that atac does it will tell you over a period of distance how uh how much elevation gain you're going to have so as you can see here the elevation gain or loss in this case since we we did it from the the point down to here instead of from the video up to the point it's 460 feet of elevation change so that's not insignificant especially if you're carrying like a hundred pound rook or something like that and a lot of equipment you could see along where this elevation change goes uh just by clicking and dragging like that so this shows you at what point the elevation is at and we'll cover this this tool a lot more in a separate video but let's say that i don't want to um i don't want to go along this this straight route i want to want to take my time and i want to come up come up this hill here and then take this ridge line down we're going to do this a few times so don't worry so let's go to making a route we want to have a route so that we can follow it right so let's wait for this to load click routes up here and then we're going to add a new route and we're going to make this route we'll call this route yellow and it will be a walking route it will be an infill and it will be our primary and it will be ascending right so let's start dropping points as you can see then once i clicked okay over here we now have this nifty thing up here on our toolbar and we can start making points so uh the vdo is now our point one right so let's keep going over here and then i'm going to use my keyboard here the wasd keys will allow you to move this sideways and also your arrow keys so whatever's more comfortable for you for me it's wasd because i'm right-handed using the mouse with my right hand and use you know wasd with my left so let's see here let's go ahead and follow follow up keeping some cover down right make sure that i'm not really taking too much effort into this this is going to be if i was really going to do this for real i would take a lot more time and effort using that elevation tool to sort of follow the contours up you know just like any other hiking trip really alright so we're up here at the top of this ridge say i don't want to go to the very top of the ridge i want to maintain that military crest back down here so i click and drag these points so that we're on we're out of visual range of the target and then we're going to continue down this ridge line more or less staying out of the view of the target probably should have left on the view shed down there at the target for for now but whatever all right we're going to follow this all the way down all the way down all the way down and then we pop up over the ridge line and we are there so there you go that's how you make a route in wintec or atac then we're going to click end editing and it's going to be right there so let's go ahead and zoom out and we'll look at this all right so that's our pretty that's our good route right there and it will show us what we see along the way so if you have multiple points along the way you can add in points as well but say i wanted to do another one say i wanted to to take a little bit more indirect route or i wanted an alternate route back to the vehicle in case i get compromised or something you always wanted an alternate route so let's go ahead and make a new route we're going to make this route let's see here what do you guys think let's just do blue it will be again a walking route and this will be infill and it will be secondary and okay let's go ahead and drive this one again let's let's go this way this time now usually you want to have different infills on different uh different sides of the objectives that you can come from different angles if you need be depending on which way the wind's blowing all that kind of stuff but i say we take the lower route and then we we just kind of hump it up over this hill here which is going to be a pretty good elevation change for us and there we go just for simplicity's sake we'll make it easy there we go all right so we've got two different routes for infill we could use these for xfil we could change them whatever whatever you wanted to do that's how you make routes and the cool part is is that say i was trying to choose between these two what i could do is go over here to the route details and click elevation profile and it will tell me how hard that trip will be as you can see grab our slider over here it's going to be not a whole lot of elevation gain a lot of elevation gain and then here at the end it sort of sort of goes up as we pop up over that hill so that's kind of interesting it's really helpful for planning hiking routes um a lot of other stuff as well so let's go ahead and and choose let me choose let me do the same thing with uh route yellow here do the elevation tool again and we'll see oh the elevator tool is still locked on the other one sorry hang on just a second route two we're gonna change this to route let's see route yellow just for simplicity's sake let's take that elevation route again let's see what we got here so this one it looks like you actually go downhill for a good amount of time for a little bit and you start coming up and then it's a slow steady incline this one looks like it's a lot harsher actually but then once you're up there on top of that ridge as you can see it levels out pretty good for the rest of the way so this one might be advantageous for some things depending on what you're trying to do you know if you find that you you'd like to the weather is permitting and you want to have this part of your journey right here climbing up that mountain at that point in time to be the uh strenuous part you could do that otherwise you could take the other easier route or you could go one way and then come back the other either way whatever you want to do so i'm going to change this to route blue and that will work for that just so that we can have that nice and neat for later right so we're done editing those routes and let's let's say that we want to add some phase lines here phase lines are a good way of in case you're going up there not not up there by yourself and you're reporting back your position to someone else like a headquarters element or just family back at home what you can do is add in phase lines and this is a good way to demonstrate the drawing tool so let me get we get rid of our routes over here let's go to our drawing tool right here i'm just going to click draw polyline and this is it i'm just going to say pick a good spot for a phase line let's see right here see if you remember we were going downhill until we got right here and then this right here this section from here to here was the most difficult part so i'm going to put a phase line right there for route yellow i'm going to end the shape and let's see we're going to do this and i'm going to name it let's call it phase line hmm let's go with spongebob see doesn't have to be anything super super duper special um i'm going to hesitate to name it yellow because our routes are yellow so i'm going to pick orange i know spongebob is obviously not orange but that kind of helps a little bit then i'm going to go over here and see there we've got phase line spongebob and this is so that say that you're trying to radio back and you don't have anybody tracking you like every step you take right you're actually having to expend resources to transmit your position you could say hey we just passed phase line spongebob it's a milestone in your trek so let's put one right there and let's put another one up here right as you get to the ridge because if anything's going to happen it's when you get to the very top of this elevation and you might have some kind of adversarial force on the other side something might happen if there's anything going to happen it's going to be right here at this point so let's go ahead and draw another polyline let's put it like right about here in that shape and we'll call this one once it loads call this one baseline patrick we'll make it magenta there we go and close that out and then let's put one more in there because if you remember this is not along the very top of the ridge line because as we remember we don't want to silhouette ourselves we want to not not have visual range of the contact until we're almost in position so let's put another phase line right about here that way somebody if we said this phase line right if we cross this phase line right here we'll know that we're almost there on top of the objective so let's go ahead and drop another one in there we'll drop it like right here so that's a good one see if it loads and we'll call this one phase line squid word we will make it let's see sort of light blue that'll work so yeah that's sort of keeping a theme it kind of helps kind of helps things as well i'm not going to put phase lines for blue here uh just because of you know time constraints and it's once you've done a couple of these you'll know how to do the others so now we've got a product that's starting to take place here now let's say for instance that like i said you know cell phone jamming is kind of an issue right so what i'm going to want to do is go back here to our target let's say right here in the city and i want to avoid direct line of sight to the city so i'm going to go over here to elevation tools once again we're going to do another view shed once again drop one let's drop it right there i'm sorry i forgot to select it drop it right there and let's close that out for a second let's see if it reaches all the way to our target yeah it does alright cool so if i'm in this red here i'm not going to be in direct line of sight to this city which means that if i'm using a cell phone i'm most likely going to be connecting to towers over here to the north right unless i pop over this ridge line then there's most likely a cell tower somewhere down here now if your uh communications dudes and your operation dudes or or whoever is on top of their stuff they can give you a kmz of all of the cell towers in this area so you can more accurately make your route to avoid any potential electronic surveillance but we don't have that capability so what we're going to do is set up a good spot that we can pop back over to to make a radio call back north back to say maybe our vehicle right and where we have a bigger repeater so let's go ahead and drop another point right here in this red spot this will be our good radio zone it's nice and clear there's not a whole lot of uh vegetation but we want to we want to stick we don't want to be out in the open we want to be able to get in there very easily without our footprints coming around so let's go ahead and put it right about so right about here use a point dropper again let's see if we have a different symbol here maybe a different symbol that we can use let's see markers now okay generic icons no these are all numbers i forgot let's say google's probably got something look here yeah sure why not we'll just use that for the telephone for a while and that will be our point and we can change the name of it to uh radio site there you go and so you can start building these products and start start putting these things together um just by using atac and because a lot of times you're you're stuck using google earth to kind of figure out okay what's a good you know what's a good place to put you know our radio things like that um where's a good site to set up well you know this is a lot easier and as you can see the 3d the 3d element of atac is not as good as google the reason that it's kind of hanging up here is because even i i've used this for quite a while now and even i don't i'm not used to it yet because to swivel this way to swivel along this axis you have to hold down your right mouse and then to swivel up and down you have to hold down mouse three your scroll wheel click and then holding down left mouse allows you to just move your eyeball point around so it takes a little bit of getting used to it is very different from google as when you start using this if you were used to having the google uh scroll wheel uh key doing everything you're gonna have to adapt um but yeah so this is this is how a product starts coming together all right now let's say i need an emergency egress route let's say i need to get the heck out of there because there's some kind of weather or storm or something like that well looks like i can make it down to this road here pretty good and then i can just follow that road all the way up to my vehicle or something like that or say that i need supplies something like that i can put in another point let's go ahead and drop in another point here this site right here looks like the last sorry hung up there for a second this site here looks like the last little bit see where it starts looks like there's a ridge line right here or some kind of soft ridge line that kind of obscures so you can be seen from the city down there but right here you can't be looks like a nice wide area right here with a blind curve around it so i can put in a resupply point right there let me put in um use i'll just use another spot i'll put a put an orange point we'll put that as uh potential resupply resupply one we'll just make it like that see there you go and this is pretty cool and you know a lot of us are familiar with doing this in either something like palantir or gaia or even something like google earth if you're if you're not one of the high speed dudes you don't have access to those tools but for the civilian side this is really a very very powerful tool because you can make these mission graphics and things like that and you don't have to uh don't really have to have a huge amount of of resources and also if someone's here using this when tag you can connect with a network so that you can actually monitor this stuff real time so say you've got dudes sitting in this lpop right and they are observing down there well you'll see on your map when they start dropping points so you can even call in threats and say look hey look i see there's a vehicle somewhere so i can just go ahead right click real quick make it a hostile point and boom send it to them instantly uh okay so yeah here are our uh here's our operation right this is just a very bare bones route it's it's basically just a hiking gps file that you can load into a gps but if you're using atac you have the ability to do a lot of different things say that you're coming up here you're almost to phase line spongebob here and you spot a uh a game camera or something like that and you want to kind of avoid that so that you're not you know being surveilled say that it's right here you can very quickly right click and drop a point right there and this is a contact and you can change this and edit this here in the thing i don't know if i would label this as a contact or just a point because it's kind of static the game camera is a static thing but let's just put this in there sorry my keyboard is hanging up for just a second there we go and there you go you can put a game camera right there or something like that you can change the symbol on this if you were to drop a point and all that kind of stuff but this is most likely what your your dude in the field is going to be doing uh from the actual atac app it takes a half a second to drop a point and you can convert it to whatever you want here back at your home sort of station right so let's say that you make it all the way up here to your lpop site and you say you know i really don't like it let me go ahead and move it a little bit let's go ahead and move it down the hill a little ways say that like that's a better spot there you go that's how you move a target so you click on it and then you've got this nice radial menu here and without even having to edit anything you can go ahead and click that button and that turns it into a nice more precision tool right and then you can move it around say i want to move it around to let's see right there in the shade of that bush that'll be a good spot right so say that that's that's your your new lpop site uh and once you get established and things like that you can use other different symbols and things down here on your target so say that you are you're in position here and you're looking at your uh your vehicles here on the ground looks like let's see if there's any military vehicles for real here in this image i don't really see any unless there's like a c12 or something down there that looks like a civilian aircraft let's see yeah now it looks just like normal civilian traffic but let's just say that a uh a c-130 or something lands in the parks like right here well what you can do is go ahead and drop a point and then instead of spot map we can go down here to vehicles there you go what did i say c130 there you go click c130 drop it right there and that will drop the actual size of the c130 on the map which is pretty cool and yeah so that's how you do that and you can of course change it by moving around moving the heading around and things like that so from your radial menu that's how you change which direction that it's pointed in let's say it's parked right there just like that and let's say that it's actually not there it's moved back a little bit move it back a little ways oh it's too far it's in the building move it forward a little bit yeah that's that's a good parking spot for it and as you can see here that shows the actual size of that aircraft on the ground and that's very helpful for mission planning and things like that so yeah that's pretty much how you can use atac for just a simple let's go see what's going on over there mission and you can make it much more of instead of just being hey let's go up there and see what we can see it can actually be a legitimate planned operation now of course this is uh this is not even baby steps this is like way before baby steps when it comes to things like actual military operation planning and the you know mdmp and stuff like that but this does give a lot of people a very simple uh way to use atac in their everyday missions for the civilian world now for the military world obviously atac has so many other uses that we can't even possibly cover all of them but for the civilian side of things we will be covering a lot more stuff like this so hopefully this was helpful for everyone um if you have any questions just please let us know drop them in the comments box below we have about a dozen different videos already uh being planned to show you how to do specific things within atac and then it's up to you it's to to have the flexibility to put all this stuff together so uh if you're just trying to use this to plan an operation like this a very small level operation that it's fine you can use atac for that as well so yeah this was just a very short primer on how you can use atac to increase your your mission you know planning efforts and things like that and really be sort of you know a very good asset to your team or family or just you know yourself or whatnot so yeah please be on the lookout for the future videos we're going to have coming out on atac we're going to show you how to do a lot of cool different stuff in atac but this this time around we just wanted to show you some of the very basic features um and stuff that you know maybe hasn't quite been talked about in a civilian context just yet so um we're going to be you know talking a little bit a little bit of doctrine in the future a little bit of atac tactics things stuff like that but this time we're just trying to get you just show you what the flavors are out there for you to choose from when it comes to atex so yeah that's really all we've got for now make sure to like comment and subscribe if you think that this stuff was useful and make sure to follow us on our other platforms as well just so you don't miss any of our other content that's all we've got for this time so always remember to fight in the shade you
Intel Update · 2022-06-16

June 16 Intel Update: The Goldilocks Zone

hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground this is the intel update for thursday the 16th of june 2022 and like always it is being recorded the day prior so let's get to it all right so first up is gas prices so as literally all of you know gas prices have never been higher so that's not really anything new what is new or really rather a unique way to think about it i think is some of the second order effects that are occurring due to these high gas prices and one second order effect that i've noticed across the country is several police departments throughout the country are reporting that they have blown through their fuel budget already this month and as a result they're not going to be responding to every call now this story has two sides like all stories right if you look at just the news and see what they're saying about it it's you know oh no the police can't respond to every call well there's two sides to every story right so here's what i think i think that yes it is true that a lot of police and other public service agencies have fuel budgets that are a specific dollar amount allotted to them that's just the way it is in some areas in the area where i grew up that's exactly where it what happened in rural areas a lot of times the law enforcement groups they get they don't actually have like a central fueling hub they have to go to commercial gas stations right in a lot of cities they have their own fueling points but for the most part for the most part a lot of times you have police officers just given a gas card that they use to fill up in some areas so it makes sense that they would have spent you know gas prices are more expensive you're not able to buy as much gas as you could and you've already blown through your you know limit for the month that that that does make sense however i also think that this is probably an excuse in some cases for law enforcement agencies to avoid doing their jobs or even more likely to increase their budget i know for a fact that this is the case in my own area i just happen to be really unlucky and live in a horrifically bad law enforcement district jurisdiction so with many overlapping jurisdictions and it's just horrifically bad so i know that my own local police officers unfortunately will will stop at nothing to avoid patrolling uh the streets for many reasons and um the decision has been made in many jurisdictions around the country already that police officers will not be responding to most 911 calls this is really in your sort of gotham city areas right like your seattles your portland's your new york cities chicago detroit places like that they've already said hey you know this has been a problem for decades now honestly there are places in in detroit where the police just haven't gone or patrolled in probably decades so you have to remember that right and we always have to be skeptical of things like this and remember that when it comes to the public services honesty is not a trait that is often exhibited especially when it comes to things like budget so that's something to keep in mind is that yes these fuel prices are having second and third order effects but we've gotta like be really careful in attributing these second and third order effects um to a lot of different things up next is food distribution uh again just like last time more food processing facilities mysteriously catching fire or are being closed down or otherwise being offline for very suspicious reasons i think that even the average person is likely to notice when they walk into a grocery store and see infant formula behind you know lock and key on the shelves something's not right here right so this really kind of leads into the next one as well they're kind of a combined uh idea here in that is smithfield the company closing a major pork production facility in california now i myself have been following the smithfield company for a few years because they got bought out by china a couple years ago and this was actually a pretty big scandal at the time with many entities reporting on the largest acquisition of a us company by a chinese company ever at 7.1 billion dollars so this is a highly suspicious case of a chinese chinese-owned company shutting down yet another major food production facility in the us it's a lot seems very fishy right but just like all of the other food distribution issues there's really not much that we average uh people can do about it uh even if we were able to kind of point fingers at deliberate attacks being made i think the general lesson here is is not just how vulnerable our food production infrastructure is like we've been talking about those vulnerabilities for years now but really the the key takeaway now is how desperately very powerful people are using food as a weapon against us not an easy uh pill to swallow there but it's just quite obvious at the point at this point that's what's happening and finally i wanted to talk about the def shortage and really just kind of broad strokes the general shortages that come from rail logistics and this is a topic that most americans are blissfully ignorant of yet completely vulnerable too and for those of you who don't really want to deep dive on this topic the bottom line is the def shortages will result in yet more logistical failings in pretty much every industry within a few months time but since a lot of people are liable to say well what else is new with regards to shortages which are now a household staple like everybody knows that shortages are here to stay for a long time we've been living in a nation where food shortages have been commonplace uh for years now um so with that being not really a new story let's talk a bit more and get a little bit deeper into the the why behind this so let me first briefly explain what def is because that's a really good place to start def stands for diesel emissions fluid you'll sometimes see people refer to as diesel exhaust fluids so it's you know it's really technically a diesel emissions fluid but it's a special kind of fluid that is required by a diesel engine to function ordinarily it's not needed but the government now requires it this is one of those little government overreach things that was done back in 2010 but nobody really cared about modern vehicles simply will not even start without def because the engines are specifically made to use def in the combustion cycle of the diesel engine in order to allegedly reduce the climate impacts of diesel combustion it would be kind of funny if it wasn't so tragic these days everyone is terrified about the government putting a magic chip in their car and uncle sam turning off their engine if they tweet the wrong thing but def is the original government transportation tyranny and it's been around for well over a decade now so other than being a classic case of government controlling food distribution at the infrastructural level why does this matter well guess what def is made out of urea most def is comprised of about 75 urea by volume if memory serves me correct and guess which country is the world's leader in urea production any wild guesses if you guessed andorra you're wrong but guessing that probably means you're an interesting person so there's that no the world leader in urea production is china the second highest producer of urea in the world is india and the third biggest producer is russia and china has put the squeeze on all fertilizer exports including urea due to prices skyrocketing domestically india used to be the world's largest urea producer but china eclipsed them uh just a couple of years ago there is some good news because russia hasn't stopped exports of urea in fact they've actually been flooding the market via india and brazil which i think is to help russian oligarchs offset the costs of the sanctions with regards to the invasion of ukraine but the bottom line is that urea prices right now are kind of a bit they're they're still very high but they're not as high as they were a couple of months ago when we were talking about the devastatingly high fertilizer prices it's come down just a little bit but i think that's kind of the calm before the storm so you might say well what's the problem then china might have slowed down exports but russia is still exporting and prices are still at you know an all-time high but we're dealing with it so there's no problem right well not so fast urea production is seasonal and that's why i haven't given you any numbers or percentages because the market has fluctuated so much that i've got a lot of conflicting data and this is because a lot of the information surrounding the exact details of global fertilizer statistics is not available to the public or it's behind a pretty substantial paywall so it's really difficult to talk about global fertilizer stuff and be accurate because there are conflicting companies with different numbers and all of which you have to pay hefty fees to see the data but all in all what does this mean i'm new expert on the global fertilizer market but i'll give it to you as straight as i can right now the global fertilizer markets are doing some pretty weird stuff and considering that a lot of third-party things like def are made from these fertilizers it's not just an agricultural problem seasonal production increases such as in india are keeping prices high instead of being tremendously high but china's export squeeze from last year and many other nations around the planet suffering from food shortages are going to result in the severe global fertilizer shortages that we and many others have been talking about for gosh probably well over a year maybe even two years now it's it's very much a case of the dog chasing the cat that ate the rat that the chain of causation is already pretty crazy global fertilizer shortages are resulting in def shortages this we know for sure that's a direct like line and def shortages mean problems for freight carriers now this brings up another major complication that has been highlighted by the recent surface transportation board hearings specifically the hearings regarding urgent issues in freight rail service from back on april 26th and 27th i believe of this year and this is going to be a bit dry and hard to follow as if this already hasn't been dry and hard to follow so please bear with me as i try to make sense of this for people who quite who don't quite understand the industry now if you wish to watch all 10 hours of these hearings you can and it would take at least an hour to summarize what was said and explain everything but the bottom line is that if you watch the entire session you will be legitimately terrified about what's to come a big problem specifically for the def shortages and by default food shortages is rail carriers piss poor rail traffic allocation and that's putting it kindly people in the logistics industry are freaking out rightfully so about a lot of problems specifically in the rail logistics industry and here's why union pacific accounts for the transportation of about 40 to 45 percent of all domestic def and union pacific in their infinite wisdom has gone to a new rail administration model called precision scheduled railroading just uttering that phrase is liable to cause veins to throb in the foreheads of many railroad workers around the country other carriers have done the same and also gone to a precision scheduled railroad model so all of your major you know tier one or what is it called class one railroad authorities have gone to this kind of system you see there are only so many rail lines in the country there's only so many miles of track and there are only so many train cars and there are only so many trains that can move along a rail line at one time so it's a delicate balance to ensure that everything is as efficient as possible and just like everything in the logistics field the slightest change can torpedo this balance canceling pipelines means that crude oil or natural gas or whatever now needs to move by rail taking up valuable rail cars that could be used to transport something else railroads firing workers for not being jabbed also has a huge impact we mentioned this a long time ago but now we're seeing that being a huge problem because rail companies are having staffing problems right now the railroad companies in their lust for money have cut costs to a dangerous level firing so many employees that service is now extremely poor and this was done pre pandemic so they can't even really fall back on the pandemic being a huge problem for them even though that did complicate things a lot all in all under a precision scheduled railroading or psr model you get fewer trains moving but the trains are longer sometimes several miles long and these trains are scheduled by national authorities or at least higher level authorities with local rail administers at lower levels having no choice about when trains move now for those of you who have read a few history books we know about how national administration of resources works in short it doesn't most people in the industry think that precision scheduled railroading is anything but precise and is nothing more than an invention by the elites to not just cut costs to dangerous levels and pocket the money but done intentionally to put the squeeze on certain commodities due to availability and driving the prices up to line the pockets of wall street in short class 1 rail carriers have created this new process called precision schedule railroading and this new process is so horrendously bad that many people in the industry think that it's intentional intentionally creating a bad scheduling system which delays the transportation of goods which creates shortages which drives at the prices of commodities and therefore increases the wealth of the elite billionaires who are running things in other words the whole thing is one big grift according to many in the industry i myself obviously do not know enough about this whole thing to say whether or not this is simply horrifically bad management or if this is something more nefarious or intentional i just don't know the way things are going right now i'm more inclined to think that this is more intentional than not for me someone who can only watch this stuff happen from the outside i am very concerned and if you glossed over the details of real logistics just listen to this a lot of highly complex stuff is going on with regards to our national logistics and none of it is good and what this will result in is quite troubling food shortages energy shortages raw materials shortages which will result in even more you guessed it shortages like i've mentioned before the united states has a lot of production capacity we can make a lot of stuff but the challenge is getting that stuff to the right place and the right amount of time and that's a huge problem because the slightest upset in our systems makes that impossible right so again for most of you who tire of seeing and hearing about the shortages this is much bigger than just running out of food at the grocery store we're talking about problems that were caused very quickly but will take years to solve if they can be solved at all i don't think as a nation we will be able to recover from these problems anytime soon for me all this does is strengthen my own resolve to create my own logistical networks and get off the grid as much as i possibly can the less you rely on national logistics the better off you'll be generally speaking but i know that for most of us going completely off-grid is not it's not really an option uh at least not yet i know that i don't have several million dollars to set up a fully off-grid compound in the mountains and i'm guessing that most of you listening to this out there don't either so just be advised that the logistical problems we're facing on the national level will not be going anywhere or they're not certainly not going to be going away anytime soon and the solutions to fix the damage that has already been done will take years to implement if those solutions can be implemented at all now this sounds really pessimistic and it probably is but there is some good news at least in my opinion which i'll get i'll get to at the end because all of this stuff is kind of tied together with everything else in this brief before i move on all of this being said i do kind of want to walk back the talk of food shortages and kind of balance things out and temper expectations and a world of fear propaganda never forget that there is a lot of money to be made from shortages increasing fear increases panic buying and panic buying in a time of scarcity not only generates a lot of revenue for some industries but it also gives government the green light to come in and fix in heavy air quotes the problems that they themselves directly created or contributed to and i don't know about you but the best help the government can give me is to leave me alone and this doesn't just apply to government either oh no private citizens and private companies can be just as devious fear is a big seller and even though i personally think we are on the brink of serious food shortages not due to lack of production but rather logistical problems and the high cost of food we still cannot let the fear get out of control a tiny bit of fear is good it keeps you alive it's helpful right but constantly consuming utter dread is not good it's not productive and even if the situation is that bad it's definitely better to focus on solutions rather than let fear consume all thought i just thought that would be a helpful reminder for everyone out there yeah things are bad and it's probably going to get worse but we're doing the best we can that's all we can do and i would expect nothing more than that moving on to significant governmental actions we've got a lot of unfortunate stuff this week this slide is really unfortunate it's just the nature of it i guess uh but the first one is the political targeting that is occurring um michigan gop candidate ryan kelly was arrested and his home was raided by the stasi excuse me the fbi back on june 9th allegedly for simply being in the general vicinity of the january 6th reichstag fire his arrest comes after many other gop candidates in michigan have been banned from running for office due to allegedly forged signatures on the petitions to add them to the ballot i don't know i'm not a an election official in the state of michigan and i did not personally examine a single ballot for this but it seems to me like in michigan the only signatures that are checked are the ones on republican ballots now many of you know that i myself am no fan of really any politician or political party at this point uh and i'm sorry but there's really no way for me to even use quasi-neutral language when talking about stuff like this and again i have no skin in the game i am no fan of the republican party and i don't know anything about this guy ryan kelly at all uh but man i really do think we're at the stage uh of you know government arresting political rivals uh at this point especially in michigan they are pulling out every stop to keep in power some of the most tyrannical people in the entire country that's pretty much obvious to me by now kind of like a political outsider who doesn't really follow politics or at least doesn't follow specific candidates at least i really do think that the fbi is solely a political secret police organization at this point and they are they're really incapable of investigating a real crime um by now they only serve the elites so anytime the fbi does anything at all i strongly question it no matter what it is so my guess is that we'll start seeing various american versions of alexia navalny quietly being arrested and their homes raided anybody in a position to upset the elections of either democrat or republican seats already has a target on their back so keep an eye out because i think we're only seeing the beginning of this you know open opposition silencing and it's going to be interesting to see how far it goes and how effective it's going to be they're going to have to be pretty effective because if they martyr some of these guys that are opposing the status quo either on the democrat side or the republican side they're going to uh they're going to increase their popularity i think you know so something to keep in mind moving on to number two the supreme court so again something that only probably half the country has has heard about because it's only been making conservative news sources but a few days ago on june 8 a man was arrested by the taxpayer-funded security team in the vicinity of brett kavanaugh's home the man was armed and confessed immediately that he was there to kill the justice not much more has been made public about this event conservative pundits as expected are talking about how nobody is talking about it and liberals well they probably hoped that he would have been successful either way i think that the interesting bit is not the actual crazy guy with a gun story but rather how everyone seems to have forgotten that we already have a supreme court replacement confirmed by the senate to me this assassination attempt if we can even call it that can we call a crazy guy with a gun a legitimate assassination attempt i don't know either way this highlights a little side note that's kind of interesting and that is that supreme court nominations are not tied to a particular seat so here's what we have the story leaks that breyer will be retiring leaving a vacancy on the court so the liberals and conservatives rush to find the most unintelligent militant leftist judge they can find and quickly so you know we're talking within a matter of just a few weeks they confirm her so all we're waiting on is for briar to retire and he hasn't yet the story of breyer retiring leaked on january 26th brown was confirmed on april 7th and it's now mid-june so my fevered brain thinks hmm interesting they confirm a seat on the supreme court and have a militant leftist ready to go and now whose lives are being threatened the conservative justices if you can call them conservative that's a debate for another day interesting how that works out though isn't it leftist politicians openly calling for violence against conservative justices when they just so happen to have an extreme leftist replacement ready to go are they expecting an untimely vacancy among the conservative justices i don't know how likely is this theory probably not vary this is literally a thought i had in the shower a few days ago all i'm saying is that at this point it would not surprise me if we wake up one morning to find that a conservative justice has been abstined by the powers that be and if this sounds crazy to even theorize about you know whatever but just remember that in today's world of fifth generation warfare nothing will make you sound crazier than simply knowing about five or six crimes that the cia or other federal agencies have committed and fully admitted to you know that's how crazy is that right so i don't know granted breyer's retirement was probably held up by the roe versus wade leake debacle which you know has completely destroyed the last shred of credibility that the supreme court had i just thought it's suspicious that everyone seems to have forgotten that we already have a tenth justice in effect and have had one for months and just in time for the personal safety of conservative justices to be in question and up next is a real doozy so for number three the department of defense in their infinite wisdom have issued a policy that soldiers who are hiv positive are not just going to be allowed to remain in the service but are also deployable that's pretty much it that's the story and it's utter madness of course the immediate thing that comes to mind are the thousands of troops that were kicked out for refusing the jab that shall not be named utter insanity but there are additional problems as well administratively deploying soldiers with serious diseases like hiv are a problem for other reasons than the obvious one which is the additional medical care and medications to manage the condition one of these problems is blood donations look i am certainly no high-speed warrior here but even i remember standing in line outside the aid station waiting to donate blood to the casualties who just rolled in the gate a significant portion of blood used in combat zones comes from people in combat zones and correct me if i'm wrong but it's not a super great idea for an hiv positive individual to donate blood probably not a good idea that's not to mention the problems for medics treating a wounded casualty with hiv again i'm not a medical professional but come on man i guess the dod thinks that combat medicine is done in nice sterile environments and not in the back of vehicles and helicopters all i have to say on that is good luck and i really mean it to the medic who takes a good bleeder to the eye from an hiv positive casualty so put another mark in the column of stupid stuff the dod is doing these days man sometimes i wonder i really do anyway moving on to the next one uh the new disarmament campaign um so just like clockwork we are seeing another major offensive in the war to keep us defenseless disarmament efforts are underway in many states yet again with new york even banning body armor i honestly don't really know of any other way to put this so i'm just going to say what everyone's thinking agents of the us government are planning on shooting you if you resist their tyranny and they don't want to get shot while doing it it really is that simple and states like new york simply want to make it easier for agents of the state to kill you if i had said that even just a couple of years ago they'd throw me in a padded room but now i think that we all just casually acknowledge this as fact when you've got a government giving weapons away to citizens of foreign nations but trying to disarm their own citizens here at home that makes the picture pretty clear to me so i really don't have a lot more to say on this at the moment because that's really heavy and we've already talked a lot about disarmament so striking that deceased equine doesn't really do much good but this is something that is important to remember when we talk about the next topic and that is the us army selecting a new service rifle ah yes the sig m5 spear now surely your youtube feeds have been full of people talking about the new rifle so i'm not going to talk too much about the specifics of it i of course am no expert in this field i don't shoot things for a living and more people have a lot more invested in the entire rifle selection program than i do i just think about stuff for a living and i did think about something and it's probably going to hurt a lot of feelings so here it goes uh it's probably my own bias but my own mind immediately made a few connections surrounding this new rifle and specifically the 6.8551 cartridge allegedly being chosen as a way to target individuals wearing body armor this doesn't automatically mean that whatever round the army chooses is going to be zipping through ceramic plates i don't know i'm not an expert in that regard but supposedly this new cartridge might be more effective against armored targets i would think that you would have to have a tungsten core for that to happen but i don't know of course there are many other reasons for this selection but the body armor thing caught my eye on the surface it makes total sense body armor is super common nowadays and the us military wants to get ahead of the curve and adopt a new weapon system that is more formidable in that regard makes total sense for your average rand corporation reader who believes that the government is telling the truth with regards to procurement programs but here's a slight problem that i have noticed exactly which adversary is this rifle meant to be used against if you stop reading the publications that the us government produces and do your own research and just watch some clips on youtube you might come to a different conclusion or at least be in a position to challenge the dod's narrative on why they chose this rifle we've seen russia's actions in ukraine and their lackluster performance and the troubles they have had equipping their troops with basic gear items these troubles seem to be very common i'm certainly no expert again and i don't think we will ever see unbiased combat data from ukraine but the use of body armor by russian troops does not seem to be super widespread or particularly effective maybe it is and we're just not seeing it i don't know there is a survivorship bias i guess when it comes to this kind of research but yes it is true that russia just a few years ago introduced the ratnik program which was good for russia and a desperately needed revamping of infantry gear but it's still not quite to the level that the united states issues gear generally speaking russia is many years behind the u.s in terms of individual soldier gear and they only started trying to issue body armor to soldiers just a few years ago whereas the us has been issuing ceramic level 4 body armor plates pretty regularly for decades now and china our other potential adversary uh if you think russia has some problems invading ukraine that does not hold a candle to china's woes in the defense sector if russia is 20 years behind the u.s in terms of individual soldier gear then china has to be at least 30 years behind yes china has a similar program to field body armor to the average infantry soldier but they only started this effort literally a couple of years ago and we're seeing china's ability to equip every soldier with body armor being even more of a challenge than russia is facing just my guess but i think russia probably sent every body armor plate in their country to the hundred thousand troops or so that ended up invading ukraine so just think about what china's issues might be it is true that the vast majority of body armor on the planet is chineseium so it's certainly a capability that china possesses the question is how much of a threat it faces enough of a threat to select a whole new rifle that i don't know do russia and china issue body armor to their troops yeah sure they do do they have problems doing so in many cases absolutely so my thoughts are this why is the us military going to a new cartridge and a new rifle if the main threats that we might be facing as a nation have trouble issuing armor to their troops or don't wear body armor at all or the body armor kind of sucks or the rounds that we already have are already effective against the dod is changing their entire philosophy on small arms and i'm highly suspicious of the motivations to do so plus to me from my tiny wheelhouse it seems like a heck of a trade-off to issue such a heavy rifle to an army that is completely forsaken the concept of physical standards sure i guess it's easier to un-fat a soldier than it is to make a 5-5-6 round punch through ceramic but i still think the weight thing is going to cause problems it is also pretty common knowledge that round count is what has mattered most when it comes to most combat engagement not really the caliber so much that's just basic infantry knowledge and one of the kind of ideas that goes back to way before even the m16 was developed if you look at a lot of the m16 development or procurement trials and ideas back in the day one of the main justifications for going with a smaller caliber you know a 20 essentially a 22 caliber rifle the 556 cartridge was due to the fact that the you know your communist black countries were running with 762 right heavier round fewer round count per soldier the you know with the 556 you're able to carry more so there you go right so the the ability for a soldier to carry uh smaller calibers but more rounds uh that's a lot that's a theory that goes back a very long time and with this new rifle the ability for the average soldier to carry less ammo is going to cause problems i think i i just i really am interested to see the doctrinal thought behind this um because it's a complete flip-flop now on how the us doctrine has been for gosh well over 50 years now yes we do have things like unguided ground vehicles which are going to be a thing in the future but we we don't really have you know things like exoskeletons being fielded in mass just yet and i think that it is a big gamble to think that these technologies are going to be around anytime soon for the average combat unit i think by the time that we start getting soldiers equipped the average soldier that is we're not talking about some developmental thing if by the time we get average soldiers equipped with an exoskeleton type system we're going to select a new rifle cartridge anyway so you know it's going to be probably several years down the line other than the weight including the weight of the round i really have no opinion on the the rifle itself i'm again not a weapons expert and there are certainly others out there better suited to offer up opinions on the rifle itself but in any case with all this in mind my mind immediately thinks two things oh okay this is a military industrial complex thing and two this is something that is certainly going to end up causing heartburn for us citizens at some point just a sort of foreboding gut feeling with no other proof to back it up that's all i'm saying i'm sure this decision to change is in no way related to the side fact that the largest demographic of body armor owners in the world second only to the us government are private u.s citizens i'm sure that that is also in no way linked to the push for politicians to ban battery armor which we have been covering on this channel for at least three years now since we got started i'm sure there's no hint of a link there at all so yeah as distasteful as it is for dudes who just want to talk about guns you've got to look at the whole picture a pretty smart dude once said that war is the continuation of politics by other means so for those of you who just want to talk warfare doctrine and philosophy but want to ignore the politics of the age and the motivations behind various military leaders i think that's leaving out a big part of the story united states senior military leadership has spent at least three years now making decisions that only hurt soldiers hurt americans reduce readiness and betray our strategic intentions to our enemies but this decision to procure a new rifle is completely innocent because it's a cool rifle and you know it is a cool rifle but remember even the m16 back in the day was up to its neck in politics at the time it was adopted so why should this rifle be any different and considering the politics of the department of defense these days and how eager they are to call us all extremists and target us as such decisions like this personally give me pause and lead me to think things that i then spend 20 minutes conveying to you guys so even though i can feel jeff bezos's amazon predator circling my position as i speak all i'm saying is that we need to at least broach the question of thinking hmm maybe there's something to this new rifle besides targeting russia and china maybe russia and china is not who they intend to target because i think that it's pretty obvious that the us government is preparing for something that they aren't telling us that's all i'm saying maybe i'm all wrong maybe the threat of body armor is significant with regards to russia and china and any other potential adversary and this is legitimately a good thing for the army to do i mean if that's the case then good on the army for actually making a good decision that's rare these days i just find it odd that the us military said that they are choosing this rifle for the body armor reason and everybody just went well okay then and didn't actually do the research to find out if russia and china actually field body armor in significant amounts or if this rifle can actually even ballistically punch through it nobody in the civilian world to my knowledge has actually said wait a second that's not quite right even considering future body armor concepts russia and china might be lucky to get some version of esappy plates in the next 10 years what is quite clear is that no nation on earth even comes close to the us in terms of body armor the only group of people that have body armor on par with or even better than the us military are u.s citizens and ignoring this fact would be irresponsible despite how biased or political this idea might sound and despite how people might not want to hear it now that i have dedicated so much time to this whole body armor idea i actually think that it is very possible that the body armor thing is not as much of a benefit as range is so i just wanted to balance it out a little bit one of the alternative explanations is that the body armor thing is all well and good and it's something the dod would like to see but the real reason for the dod to select this cartridge is range you can get a lot more range for the same effect on target compared to say five five six and in that case the ability to maybe punch through body armor is really just a side benefit this explanation is perfectly politically correct in polite defense conversation so that alternative is obviously more palatable for most people which is why i wanted to mention it and as a counter to that i would merely point out that that's not the argument that deity is going with in defense circles the ability to punch through armor is not advertised as being a side benefit it's usually what most people mention first when talking about this new rifle cartridge if you wanted range you might go with a different cartridge i don't know is this a myth or some flood science i don't know but it's kind of interesting that things have worked out the way that they have with regards to procurement and i'm sure the internet will tell us someday when talking about anything to do with guns these days i think of that old line that there were 260 navy seals that served in vietnam and i've met 500 of them so thankfully for us literally every single person on the internet is a firearms expert so that's convenient either way i just had the thought and i thought i would share it honestly it would probably do well to dive into this topic further at some point uh if i could dedicate a couple hundred hours to do the research um i would think it would be very interesting to to talk about the tactics of other countries and i've tried to do that a lot lately with a lot of our research a lot of our teamers working on awesome stuff in that regard but i don't know if there'd be interest in that sort of thing specifically so again a lot of people are not going to like this idea but again i get paid to think about stuff and that's what i thought all i know is that i myself am looking into armor solutions that provide better protection against specifically the 6.8 millimeter round because again with politicians already trying to target body armor now we're going to have some serious problems when level 4 ceramic plates turn out to be not good enough a few years down the line and i personally think that is the duty of every american to possess body armor that is capable of protecting against the weapons that the us government uses so i think we'll call it quits on that and move into international issues and i don't have a whole lot today uh but first up is china china again has been getting kind of squirrelly over taiwan lately which makes a lot of sense i guess although i do think that russia's performance in ukraine has given them pause about their own military aspirations you know honestly that sounds like a cheap and oversimplified thought though i'm sure military academies around the country are full of cadets writing term papers on that exact topic but maybe it is that simple i don't know in any case i do think the increase in china's rhetoric is interesting clearly they are going with the time-honored communist idea that their power comes from the perception of their power on the one hand i think that rhetoric is what they have so rhetoric is what they will use on the other hand it wouldn't surprise me to be waking up in the middle of the night because they launched their invasion of taiwan one thing that is hard to keep remembering is that just because we lowly peasants can look at things strategically and see things that are obvious that doesn't mean that the people running the show see these things too moving on to india and sri lanka as we talked about last time both nations are severely facing food insecurity actually sri lanka has recently a couple of days ago instituted a four-day work week to allow people an extra day on the weekend specifically to tend to their home gardens and work on other agricultural pursuits now diving a bit deeper into the reasons for the food shortages in sri lanka specifically a lot of people are pointing fingers directly at politicians because last year the president of sri lanka banned the use of chemical fertilizers this decision directly resulted in crop yields shrinking to basically nothing and is directly leading to mass starvation throughout the country the government reversed the decision uh but by now it's too little too late and in response to the government uh basically causing their own population to starve directly the government rewarded itself by expanding itself adding new cabinet positions in addition rampant inflation and shortages of diesel and gasoline have made everything worse so what little food does come out of the fields is very hard to transport around the country mass civil unrest has been the result as we've talked about last time which has been since then put violently put down by the government sri lankan citizens have gotten their licks in though with many clips circulating online of politicians being beaten and tortured in the streets by their starving constituents so yeah the situation is severe in sri lanka and is already at the point of no return with regards to how bad this is going to be in just a few months time the situation in india is also severe but not quite to the sheer emergency level that sri lanka is experiencing i mentioned the two nations at once because they're strongly linked when india experienced hardship they circled the wagons and banned or reduced the exports of things like fertilizers and wheat to other nations so as to keep their own citizenry fed and since sri lanka imports a lot of everything they need from india we can see how this is a problem so we're definitely going to be keeping an eye on southeast and southwest asia for quite a bit of time so that's pretty much all i have for today and i i wanted to end on kind of a positive note for once as many of you know i prefer to be realistic with these briefs and if the situation is not good i don't think it's appropriate to put a positive spin on something negative simply because we all want to be happy and never have anything bad happen to us i've tried a lot to tone down the language i use in these briefs but you guys see what makes it into these briefs so imagine what we end up cutting out but looking back over the past six months or so i really do think that we're in a sort of goldilocks zone with regards to how things seem to be collapsing i've mentioned this goldilocks zone before but but for the most part i don't really want to scare anyone which is why i haven't really talked much about this but i really do think it's obvious that the the american system what we've got going on in this country is either in some sort of collapse or some sort of transition to something else maybe a new style of governance maybe a new style of culture i don't know this doesn't mean that we're going to wake up one day and the apocalypse will have happened in a singular event but it's clear to me that we are in a period of transition and i think that this decade is going to decide our fate uh our institutions our culture and our system of government may not be completely disappearing but it's certainly changing into something else and one thing that's hard for us to remember because we don't often see it and we want to focus on the negativity right is that every day the situation in the u.s becomes more dire we also see the resistance to such tyranny growing by leaps and bounds which again is hard for us to see right some think that the us will balkanize others think a civil conflict will decide our fate or both others think that we're slowly sinking into quicksand with each passing day and there's not much that can be done about it and i will admit that i personally don't know what the future brings but generally i believe that our situation here is collapsing into something else uh i think that we're past the point of no return and um there will be no going back to the way things were until some pretty radical changes occur and as a side note i'm not really sure that we'd want to go back to the way things were because humans have a tendency to over romanticize nostalgia i guess but the good news in my opinion is that this collapse for lack of a better term is occurring at nearly the perfect rate not too hot not too cold but just right think about it things are happening at just the right speed to get people motivated to change their fate yet not so quickly as to remove resources completely from people this applies to everything to be honest but just look at gun control if the past two years of utter tyranny had been spread out over 50 years would anyone have noticed we know the answer to this the answer is no because we did have 50 years of gun control and very few people noticed these disarmament campaigns are happening at the perfect speed in new york body armor is now illegal well that gives all of the other states a fair warning to start buying body armor the government passes laws that make it illegal to disassemble your own gun for cleaning or something like that which is great because literally zero people will follow that decree and instead start generating a culture of mass open non-compliance even though gun control efforts have sped up at tyrannical rates over the past few years it's still happening slowly enough that the average person can still get what they need in the field of logistics i think that our national logistics networks are failing at the precise rate which is encouraging others to create more robust networks of their own either on the citizenry level or to encourage companies to start popping up and fixing some of these logistical problems that we're facing with our own children this is still the case if you are a parent and you see what is happening in our schools how much more evidence do you need to make changes with regards to your child's education we've all been given fair warning in that regard no matter how hard that challenge might be with the military same thing how often do you get a free out so you're telling me that you had the opportunity to take a free discharge and all you had to do was refuse an order that was illegal anyway man good luck in the next few years when the next major illegal order to come is not going to result in you getting a free discharge but rather some world war one style stuff by you getting a webley to the face you know so right now everything is in that goldilocks zone it's just bad enough to encourage people to change their lifestyle but not quickly enough to make those changes impossible we are incredibly lucky for the situation to be this way and it certainly won't be that way forever it's almost funny in a morbid sort of way i don't think that humanity has ever been given so many fair warning signs as it has right now it would be funny if it wasn't so tragic to see how many people still can't see what's happening and still choose to ignore all these warnings that even the average person can see right now but even in that case there is still good news when the world is going to hell it makes it a lot easier to find people that you can help and it's a lot easier to be a righteous person or at least try to be fortunately our paths ahead have been narrowed for us and in many cases the choices we have to make are quite simple and very easy to identify these days it's not even a matter of taking the high road or the low road or the hard path or the easy path no i don't think that's accurate anymore we can either take the road of degeneracy and shear evil for lack of a better term or we can take the path of doing good things of course choosing the good path may be more simple these days but it's really easy especially if you are surrounded by degeneracy and bad stuff all the time but that's why we are fortunate to be in the goldilocks zone right now because we can harden ourselves we can get tough mentally physically and even spiritually i think we're still in the beginning stages of the tough times ahead so right now we need to be preparing especially mentally and again as things get tougher out there in the world it will make it easier to find others with similar mentalities and start banding together for the tough times to come so drink some water go for a jog turn off the internet for a bit and start living a better life i know you can do it it's never too late to start and right now i am super excited that we all have the chance and the motivation to be better people myself included in a fifth generation war or even a war of good versus evil as this increasingly seems to be i myself am placing a higher priority on keeping my head in the right pla
S2 briefing · 2022-02-18

Ukraine Update: Wooden Horses

hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground this is the ukrainian war intelligence update for friday the 18th of february 2022 and it is being recorded the day prior on the 17th we've got a lot of stuff to talk about today so let's jump right into the geopolitical update i'm not going to spend too much time talking about geopolitics because there's just way too much going on there's a lot of stuff going on out there and most of it's really not that helpful so i'm just going to touch on the stuff that is interesting first up are the nations that have either closed their embassies or moved their embassies to the western parts of ukraine the united states has closed their embassy in kiev and are moving a temporary uh a temporary embassy out west to levov it is unclear as to whether or not that's going to be an operational embassy i haven't really looked into it that much but when it comes to americans in ukraine the good news is that poland is now allowing americans to cross land borders into poland without any prior authorization or visas or stuff like that you can just get all your stuff there right at the border which is good for those of you who are looking to get out of ukraine speaking of evacuations we're also seeing an unprecedented number of private jets leaving ukraine if you're following a lot of the flight tracker and like open source uh ads adsb trackers you'll notice there are an awful lot of private planes leaving uh ukraine uh one-way trips and going to other countries like romania hungary places like that so i thought that's kind of interesting that a lot of the um senior like economic leaders in the country have left actually ukraine the the current political leadership had issues statements urging their uh people to come back people who are civil servants uh to come back to the country so um that's just kind of the way things work out and kind of hints as to what people in very powerful positions are thinking about the potential for invasion speaking of air travel a few airlines mostly klm is the biggest one have canceled their flights to ukraine so they're avoiding all ukrainian airspace and this kind of makes sense because ukraine has a very long history of of civilian airliners being shot down during this conflict most european or really every airline has been avoiding the eastern part of ukraine for a very long time now because of that but now it looks like a few airlines are extending that to the entire country so if you're trying to escape ukraine if you're trying to leave you know airline travel might not be just like what we've been saying is airline travel might not be that reliable something also of note uh in russia is or or really rather disputed territory is the american submarine incident between the united states and russia so a lot of people aren't aware of what went on with this and we still really don't know the full story really all we're getting is russia's side of the story but the short version of this is that the russian navy intercepted detected and intercepted an american virginia-class submarine operating in their territorial waters off the kuril islands this was a few days ago the russians claim that they you have used kinetic measures to sort of you know encourage the united states submarine to leave their waters and the u.s submarine left at high speed now if this sounds a little fishy that's probably because it is there's a lot of things wrong with the russian version of the story for one the virginia class submarines are very hard to detect and the vessels that were in the area the russia claims detected the submarine that's going to be a hard task for those ancient vessels so there's that i don't doubt for one minute that the united states does not have submarines shadowing the exercises off the curl islands the russian naval exercises but it just doesn't sound right the us navy has of course denied the entire thing and russia has refused to give any kind of proof as to knocking the american submarine out of their waters or something like that the reason i'm having a hard time defining it is because russia has used very shady language they've said they used special means to get the united states submarine to leave i don't know what that means it can be anything there's a lot of different things that go on in the sub-world diplomatically so it could be everything from some kind of special acoustic measure or even some kind of kinetic measure to uh to warn the us submarine off but again they're being very vague about it and it sounds a lot like russian propaganda at this point and really the kind of the kind of nail in the coffin for this is this image um which has been circulating around a lot of russian language chats and a lot of russian media claiming that this is an american countermeasure an acoustics countermeasure for an american submarine as in the russians scared the american submarine and they deployed acoustic countermeasures to escape and distract and cover their retreat and here's proof right well here's the problem this is actually not american this is a russian anti-submarine or submarine countermeasure system uh this is a very actually a this this image pulled up on the internet quite a long time ago and it's very interesting because it's kind of a classified system for the russians so this torpedo-like system is is really an electronic countermeasure right it's a an acoustic countermeasure system that can deploy other countermeasures at least we think in the sub-world these are not particularly new they've been around for a while but they're new to most people i think but the interesting part is is that this image of one kind of washing up on the shore there is russian it was due to their russians testing on their own systems and yet a lot of russian language platforms are claiming that this is american so kind of interesting and kind of the nail in the coffin that proves that probably didn't occur did a russian surface vessel or other submarine detect an american submarine yeah probably maybe who knows it's literally impossible to know submarine diplomacy is one of those things where you're never really going to know what actually happened until probably 40 years later but it was kind of interesting so i wanted to mention it also russia has got an exercise coming up which is kind of a regular exercise for them that most people call the grom exercise it's basically their exercise for world war three it's to test their nuclear triad and the communication systems between their submarines their bombers and their land-based systems so a lot of people are thinking that this russian nuclear style exercise is really a way to deter nato from doing very much when russia invades ukraine so ukraine gets a ukraine gets invaded by russia nato gets a little squirrely russia uses exercise as a way to kind of dominate or try to encourage nato to not do very much so i thought i'd point that out because it's it's kind of an important thing moving on to our naval update don't really have much for the ga uk gap or the north sea so i'm just going to skip right to the med where there's a lot of activity now this slide is outdated we've been updating the slides in between briefings as some of you probably know i've been uploading these slides as regularly as we can between the videos that come out and this has changed quite a bit so at the time we made this slide there were a grand total of 12 russian landing craft or landing ships in underway in the black sea a few of them have come back and a few of them have gone back out again so we're still counting to figure out who's where but roughly speaking there's still a lot of activity going on in the black sea as well as the med there's been a lot of activity it's really hard to kind of track where these vessels are at because usually by the time that we get either a satellite image of where they're at or an ais pain of where they're at they've already moved so that's just something to keep in mind but right now in the med and in the black sea there is a lot of steel in the water moving to the overall update for ukraine we've kind of had to simplify this graphic a little bit it's still not perfect of course it's very far from perfect but i just wanted to show you the major units that are that are here in theater because this is going to be a high level map we just have too many icons at this point so let's go ahead and jump to the actual fronts on the northeastern front this is where we're seeing most activity as of the past 48 hours that's why we've drawn a little flat there a little frontline enemy troops just so people understand what's more likely to occur right over the border just on the other side of the border of kharkiv in russia we're seeing a lot of units move to what we think are their final staging positions this is something that the us government has also backed up if you trust them which you shouldn't honestly but even ocean trackers on twitter can show you pictures of these units moving to their final staging locations we're seeing units move really really close to the border in this particular area so this is kind of the highest tension part of the entire ukrainian border at this time but we have other things to mention as well so let's jump a little bit closer into the car key front and see what's going on so like i mentioned we're seeing a lot of units being staged in belgrade and then moving out from belgrade to other further locations closer to the ukrainian border such as certino vessela lopez and the shebacchino depot these are basically just fields little either defunct old soviet bases that they're revitalizing or places like that we can get more into specifics to some of these as time goes on but i also wanted to point out that in belgrade we're starting to see a lot of the tos ones mlrs move into the area as well now these are some nasty weapons i wanted to point that out because it's an interesting concept that not a lot of people think about and these are like your standard mlrs but the warheads that they're being used that they that these systems use are they have the capability for using newer thermobaric types of weapons basically it's very comparable to our highmars system here we have in the us the the grid square eraser right but this does it with thermobaric weapons and that's just really really nasty the reason that i want to mention this specifically is because we saw during the battle for the donetsk airport a lot of ukrainians claiming that thermobaric weapons were used against them and that these specific weapons were used against them and there wasn't a whole lot of conclusiveness to that i would say it's pretty conclusive based on the the pictures of the bodies it's something that you really don't want to talk about at the dinner table to be honest but the international community was like i don't really know well now we're seeing these units being kind of openly transported not even you know being covered whereas the first time they were allegedly used it was very secret so now we know that not only do these units exist but they're also exist in this theater and they also exist with the kinds of weapons that we think they have so again confidence level in this is you know moderate i guess but we've seen these on trains being unloaded from bell garage so you know take it for what it's worth i guess so jumping into a couple of specific locations i wanted to talk about belgrade farp for a second this is an interesting one uh because this uh this is a jump farp a a forward arming and refueling point for helicopters this points to russia's recent i shouldn't say doctrinal change which is just kind of what they do now which is rely heavily on helicopters for movement and this is a perfect location for it it's only 36k from the ukrainian border it's a nice safe area this is an old cold war base that's just kind of in the middle of nowhere even though it's on the outskirts of belgrade there it's still really a remote location um but that's what they're they're using this location to stage a lot of their helicopters so similar situation over here in vessela lopen uh this is just a normal civilian town uh interestingly enough when the russians got here they weren't actually using the camp that's uh to the northwest of town they were actually uh staging their t-80s and different kinds of ifvs like bmps and such along the railway so civilians were able to get really close to these um parked vehicles and get a lot of good pictures of them so something very interesting but now we're mostly seeing them staged just to the northwest of town there just wanted to mention this because again we found out about this camp and really the ocean community found out about this camp right as russia was claiming that they were pulling back and we're seeing you know videos on twitter of tanks being offloaded um quite clearly uh and then sent to this camp here moving out east we've actually seen a little bit of an increase in conflict along the eastern front now when it comes to the actual conflict it's hard to say where the conflict has occurred there have been a lot of ceasefire violations over the past few days but the international monitoring group for the ceasefire has actually started to pull out of this area so they're getting ready to evacuate so it's really hard to say how effective the international monitors are um at checking out the conflict in eastern ukraine so they haven't said that they've fully left yet but it's kind of it's kind of obvious that everybody in eastern ukraine is thinking about leaving so i guess we'll have to see how effective they are at monitoring the conflict over the next few days also diplomatically we're seeing a lot of things uh being claimed by the russians that i'm not quite certain how to think about just yet for instance the russians are claiming that they have discovered a lot of mass graves in eastern ukraine and as such a lot of western analysts are thinking ah this is russia's excuse to invade um to stop the genocide right because putin himself has used the word genocide a lot to describe what's going on in eastern ukraine never mind that it actually has been the russians shelling civilians this entire time but anyway just wanted to point that out that we are aware of the rhetoric and the language that's being used um it's just really hard for us to kind of narrow that down at this time and say do we know definitively what this true story is along the southern front like i mentioned lots of vessels out in the water there have been a lot of aircraft being staged in the crimean peninsula as well mostly at defunct air force bases we've got over 70 helicopters at one old old school soviet base so yeah again southern front looks like it's preparing now again i should mention that the russians have put out statements saying look we're withdrawing from our positions we're leaving we're coming back they're sending troops back and they publish videos of trains loaded with equipment and soldiers being moved back east across the crimean bridge here's the problem with that though a lot of those units um they're actually closer to ukraine's border when they go home to their home units they just move right around to the eastern front uh they're closer to ukraine when they go home than they are in crimea which is interesting also we're seeing a lot of those units that russia has in their own videos popping up closer to the border again either to the north or to the east so again it's really hard to say what's going on but it sounds a lot it sounds to me like there is a lot of russian gaslighting going on when it comes to yeah we're pulling our forces back when we can clearly see ourselves that that's not the case and that's completely irrelevant of of any american rhetoric on this like i can download the satellite images and and i can go on twitter and count tanks just as well as anybody else can and i can myself can see that ah the russians aren't pulling out anybody just yet under the western front really not a whole lot going on other than the united states issuing do not travel orders for transnistria and moldova and beginning like sort of evacuation processes for those countries as well but i'm not really sure how how significant that is other than maybe a push for odessa if it comes to that like i mentioned the the reason that we're talking about this front is because it's it's it's important especially for odessa so we'll definitely keep an eye on it but there's really not a whole lot going on there at the moment moving to the northwestern front we have a lot of activity here as well and a very interesting story that has unfolded over the past few days so let's dive in a little closer first up i wanted to talk a little bit about bufgorka camp from last time just to show you some updates to it so here's the overall satellite image here's the image we showed last time and here is imagery as of the ninth showing that vehicles have moved this is something that we expected as soon as we dropped the video on it and as soon as other uh ocean entities became aware of this location it's not particularly new these guys have been there for a very long time but again just because we're talking about it in a video does not mean that we just discovered it these guys have been there for quite a while so i don't want to say that russia moved these assets due to we here you know exposing their position but that would also not surprise me so to those out there in the intel or operations world don't think that we're naive in this regard we are fully aware of who's reading these products i just wanted to point out that we here are thinking about these things and being as considerate as possible towards the planning efforts of those who are more better suited to doing good than we can if nothing else a little healthy competition coming from ourselves and agency in the open source world with almost no resources can encourage the us intelligence community to up their game after all no commander wants to see that some guy on youtube with an internet connection has better intelligence than their active duty s2 shop that's the way it should be i wouldn't want that either ocean is a tool in the toolbox not the entire toolbox so if our work can encourage our active duty counterparts to be better instead of stealing paragraphs or grants them that nobody will read or sitting on merc chat all day long with a bag of cheetos that's a good thing in our book and now moving to a big bit of news that has been taking the osant world and the journalistic world by storm for the past couple of days that is this pontoon bridge that has been set up in belarus now for those of you that keep up with ocean and know what has happened to this bridge hang on for just a minute and let's take a look at the overall area of this bridge because this really doesn't show us that much moving out we can see the ukrainian border up there the chernobyl exclusion zone there in orange and the pontoon bridge itself as you can see it is very close to the border it is six kilometers as the crow flies uh to the border there within the belarusian side of the uh chernobyl exclusion zone and as we can see it's very close to kiev as well so let's jump out of the satellite image and go to a street map image so we can talk a little bit more about this location one of the reasons that the world is all abuzz about this bridge is that it's kind of a big deal with regards to wet gap crossings in other words militaries have to cross bodies of water and pontoon bridges are the way to do that and if you put a pontoon bridge here it looks an awful lot like you're trying to move forces or enable the freedom of movement for forces really close to the border because the next bridge that can be used by armored vehicles to actually cross the pripyat river is all the way north in missouri so as the crow flies that's 66 kilometers so one might think that hey if troops are trying to move in this direction they're going to need to cross this bridge and then they can punch right through in across the border into the exclusion zone very good way for troops to move around otherwise they would have to go all the way over here to measure and then head south right so that's why people are thinking about this is like holy cow this is like the smoking gun when it comes to russia trying to invade ukraine this is like the most important news ever right well not really for one the biggest bit of evidence kind of against this pontoon bridge being any kind of use whatsoever is that russia is already on the other side of the river that's where these units are right now that's exactly what they did they went to major they crossed over and now they're right there and yelts right across the border so they're kind of already on the other side of the river another bit of information is that when you look at a map like this you tend to forget something and that is what the weather's like so let's zoom in a little bit and take a look at some recent sentinel imagery here's where the pontoon bridge is and here's the rest of the pripyat river it's kind of frozen now granted the ice in the pripyat river might not be thick enough to drive a tank over you need a many inches of ice for a tank to be able to drive across it right and the thinning patches of ice that we see up to the northern parts of the pripyat river that kind of you know indicates this it's probably not thick enough for for a tank to drive across but i also find it pretty hard to believe that the russians wouldn't be able to find a better spot to cross they clearly chose this spot because of the open water for a reason so taking all of this into account and just kind of absorbing all of the information that's out there about this pontoon bridge we come to a few different conclusions or really a few different explanations uh for why this bridge can be there the first of which is the one that everybody's saying which is that this bridge is a legitimate attempt for russia to be able to increase their freedom of maneuver right next to the border so that they can strike fast and strike hard right you know even though they can use the bridge up in measure it's probably a little bit easier to have a bridge a little bit closer down to the border if they're trying to invade somebody again i don't think this is likely i think this is extremely unlikely knowing what we know now but i'll get to that in a minute the other immediate thought that comes to mind is that this is something shiny for the americans to look at right it's a distraction in other words it's something for a ukraine to get all upset about because it's six kilometers from their border that should be a hint in and of itself because you don't want to build something that close to the border when even light even light artillery can take it out right so the fact that it's so close to the ukrainian border is presents a risk so something to think about right another big hint but again this could purely be a distraction with no intention of russia using it whatsoever but really what i think is most likely is that this bridge serves multiple roles for one russia benefits by keeping tensions high right now right they look like they're the ones who are in the right and the west is in the wrong they're able to keep their propaganda machine going in overdrive it keeps the morale for troops high and it again allows the americans to be embarrassed once again russia time after time even just over the past couple of weeks russia's actions have been very good at getting the west to react to them when in actuality russia is just sitting back and letting the west you know make fools of itself again russia has gotten really good at gaslighting the united states for one but also making western leadership look like fools through their own actions russia is really good at pinpointing something and then doing something to make the west react and then the west looks like an idiot so this is a good way to do that a pontoon bridge is pretty cheap to install it's it's very easy to do and it's very very public and it's also good legitimate practice because let's face it russia is going to have a lot of wet gap crossings in ukraine if they choose to invade so you've got the denipa river you've got a lot of other smaller bodies of water that still require you know engineers to get across so it this is a good way to practice for that and like i mentioned earlier right when we started talking about this bridge there's more to the story as of this morning the bridge is gone we can tell this via sentinel imagery that was downloaded uh as of last night and the bridge has now been relocated so that's that i guess this whole exercise in talking about the bridge really isn't about the bridge it's really to show that even though the intel handbook indicates x some common sense is also required just like the us government and governments around the world were dead set on telling the world that russia is going to invade on the 16th of february and since it's now the 17th or 18th when this video goes out and no invasion occurred the us intel community looks foolish and speaking of that date a lot of people have been asking well how did the us government know with such certainty that russia had planned the invasion for the 16th and why would they say this openly well the reason for saying it openly is is a quasi-legitimate i suppose if you say hey if you have unrefuted undoubtable proof that russia is going to invade on the 16th and you tell the world this well obviously russia is not going to invade on the 16th they're going to not invade on the 16th because you've discovered their plans and now they have to change their plans or they were never planning on invading on the 16th and now you just look like a fool in any case we will never know what intelligence the us government had to indicate with such certainty that russia was going to invade on the 16th it's a win-win for both because now the biden regime gets to claim that ah we stopped them invading on the 16th and russia gets to claim well the us looks like fools because they said we were going to invade on the 16th and we never invaded on the 16th so it's a win for both sides which is why you don't really hear too much about it based on my own speculation i think i know how they got that date if they didn't have any really concrete proof it's pretty easy to come up with the 16th as a date and this is just my own personal guess right so my guess is that they either had some kind of comment you know some kind of communications interception or some kind of document right some top secret document from the kremlin that indicated that date plus the 16th was during a green illumination cycle in other words the moon was very bright and therefore more conducive to nighttime airborne operations which is what russia would use right which as a side note is why we talk about this stuff because lunar illumination is important for things like this but it's not the only factor right and at the same time i can look at that assessment of the 16th and know that it was made by a junior analyst or somebody who doesn't know what they're doing in other words if i were back at the intel schoolhouse and i had a class of soon-to-be analysts in my classroom and i were to ask them to assess what date russia would choose to invade i would expect every one of them to say the 16th that's just what you come up with if you're a junior analyst that's the textbook answer and it's not it's not a wrong answer right if you're a junior analyst that's what i would expect and you use the intel cycle you process information and you come up with 16th as a date it's not textbook wrong it's just that if you know more about the situation you're not going to come up with that date unfortunately in today's intel community most analysts are incapable of giving anything other than the textbook answer either way this is all just a gut feeling on my part and i think i've beat this horse enough i just thought that this was a fascinating illustration of so many different ideas that it was worth sharing because this bridge has become more of a proverbial wooden horse than a wooden bridge it is a great example of analysis gone awry and how it's good to think for yourself and really it's an allegory of the deception that's taking place everywhere with regards to ukraine right now when this bridge first became public it swept through the ocean community like wildfire as it should this is important stuff right wet gap crossings and pontoon bridges in this context are something that should grab one's attention but it shouldn't consume one's entire attention span we shouldn't be scurrying from event to event just like the russians and the american defense industry want us to we need to see the whole picture but we also shouldn't ignore the indicators of an invasion keeping calm and keeping a cool head is very hard to do especially when you have so many intel gaps there's so much that you don't know but it's still important to do the world isn't going to end because you waited a day to form an opinion on something and it's always better for analysts to be unconventional in their thinking and speaking of invasion potential and looking at the whole picture right the team here found an interesting article that comes from a ukrainian think tank which outlines a few critical points that argue against the possibility of an invasion they think it's not likely with everyone arguing about the will they want they nature of the russians invading i wanted to offer at least one legitimate counterpoint to our opinion that the invasion is imminent right now opinions regarding russia invading are mostly coming from a perspective of american domestic politics a lot of people are rushing to fill the opposite space of whatever their political opponents are saying so the biden regime comes out and says russia is going to invade the people who are opposite to the biden administration come out and say russia is not going to invade they only want to have that opposition they don't want to actually look at the situation on the ground and the situation in the world they just want to be the opposite of whatever their enemies are and sometimes that doesn't make a whole lot of sense but if you shove america's domestic situation and the military-industrial complex aside we can clearly see russia's actions as inflammatory this paper which i would encourage you to read the link of which will be in the description of course and on the sources slide for this uh goes into detail on why they think russia won't be invading in any significant way so rather than highlight their points for them i'll let you read through them on your own but i would like to address some of the ideas that they had first up is the potential for a large-scale combat operation or lsco also known as world war iii at least in this context right so is russia prepared to launch a large-scale combat operation i don't think so but like we mentioned in an earlier brief russia has left her own territory laughably vulnerable to pretty much anyone who wants to strike her all of the units that have been deployed by russia have been either meant for a conflict in ukraine or as a deterrence for nato in other words if russia was preparing for a knock down drag out fight they're doing it all wrong because they haven't deployed nearly enough troops but is it enough to handle ukraine absolutely i think so i think russia's choice in style of warfare from everything from unit composition to their diplomacy is the perfect choice for going into combat for ukraine if i myself were planning an invasion of ukraine i would do exactly what russia has done so far now the other point that the paper makes is meant to address the follow-on question that people have right now people are asking okay russia is going to invade like that seems pretty clear at this point but how far will they go i like anyone else don't know the answer to that question but my guess is that russia probably will not go whole hog and launch a total invasion without any concerns for nato my guess is they won't do that but i also think that based on the units we've seen maneuvering they won't exactly go for a minor incursion either a byproduct of the world's eyes on ukraine right now is that russia will not be able to use their little green men or separatists at all this time right with everyone all hyped up and watching this is going to reduce a big advantage that the russians love to use secrecy that might be enough to deter them or it might not what do i think they're going to do i think they're going to invade how far will they go i don't know what limitations will they place on themselves to keep tensions with nato as low as possible while still meeting their objectives in ukraine i don't know that either how long does russia plan for it to take to reach their objectives i don't know but based on their logistics or lack thereof probably not very long i think what would be interesting is for russia to do a sort of double bluff and pretend to draw back forces or just leave them forward deployed for a few months until nobody cares anymore and then use the slow approach like they did in 2014 when they were more or less able to operate in the shadows and the world didn't care that would be pretty slick it would make the us leadership look foolish for all their recent sky is falling rhetoric and it would leave russia in a better spot for an invasion later in the year of course i'll be the first one to admit that as an analyst one has a very strong urge to put caveats on things every analyst has an escape sentence in every assessment just so that in the event that they're wrong they don't look like a complete idiot and i'm not perfect i do that too i try not to do that so much because i think it's cheap and dirty and i think that analysts being afraid of being wrong is why the intel community sucks so bad and why bad analysts or yes men keep getting promoted but i would also have to argue that man if this all turns out to be a massive military deception campaign on russia's part they certainly fooled me and here's what they did to fool me russia deployed more people and equipment to their borders than have ever been deployed since world war ii and they spent millions of dollars and countless resources doing it they deployed most of their naval forces for no reason and moved vessels around the planet all the way from the arctic and from the pacific just to fool us they established ford positions and hidden staging areas on their borders that we didn't know about letting us see where russia would deploy if an invasion were to occur for real in other words if russia did this this massive deployment just to test nato's responses and get nato to reveal their wartime tactics well nato certainly learned vastly more about russia than russia learned about nato these actions on russia's part are why i think russia is going to invade if we were to flip through the checklists of what russia would have to do to invade ukraine almost every box has been checked there are only a couple of criteria that haven't really been satisfactorily met and the weather isn't super great nor are their logistics thus the uncertainty but right now i would and am making decisions based off of russia invading ukraine and whatever effects that might have on us here at home in addition to being a vital look into what a modern large-scale war might look like we do not often get chances like this to learn without experiencing casualties of our own and since ukraine is about to pay the price the least we can do is remember and learn the lessons that have been learned the hard way by others at this stage russia has a lot to lose if they don't invade there are a few things that russia gets out of this deployment so far like embarrassing nato and the knowledge that nato will back down in the face of russian aggression that's quite clear i think this was i think that was clear before this whole ukrainian situation launched i think it was clear in 2014 when the ukrainian conflict sort of kicked off in earnest but if russia doesn't invade look what she will have gotten she will have strengthened nato presence in eastern europe along a whole host of other things right we're talking new alliances forming more equipment flowing into ukraine and nato being more likely to accept ukraine into their memberships so regardless of whatever u.s politicians or defense industry executives are saying about this this is really it russia has a lot to lose if they don't invade at this point they have a lot to lose and very very little to gain unless there is some other kind of secret objective that russia is trying to go for and i something that i don't understand right of course nobody's perfect and i might be a total idiot on this i might be missing something completely huge right but i just can't see at this point what russia would have to gain other than some very minor things if they don't invade and before we closed out for today i just wanted to remind everyone that there is a lot happening around the world in fact it's maddening to try to keep up with it all keeping an eye on what's going on in europe is important because it affects us here at home but so is keeping an eye on what's happening here in the us or with our brothers and sisters to the north so do not think that we are neglecting our own backyard at the expense of talking about ukraine because it's interesting we are certainly watching what's going on in canada as well because very few people are talking about what's going on in canada and the the implications that this has on our entire western civilization um and we're going to be talking a lot about that in the next brief as well the next non-ukraine brief so i just want to let everybody know we're watching this stuff and we're trying to figure out what this stuff means for all of us here at home as well so thanks again everyone thanks for your support and remember to not let this stuff stress you out too much it's pretty easy to be overwhelmed with a lot of the stuff that's going on these days so taking some time to unplug and unwind is just as important as being informed so thanks again and we will see you next time and as always fight in the shade
S2 briefing · 2021-08-24

"Regular" Intel Brief NOT AFGHANISTAN UPDATE - 24 AUG 2021

hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground so today just wanted to do another normal uh intel update for everyone we've got a lot of stuff to talk about uh just for everyone who has been following our afghanistan series i'm still going to continue that we're still working on some slides and some products for that but this is not that brief i will be talking a little bit about afghanistan here at the end but this is really a conus united states style brief you can check out our other briefs if you're not familiar with the format but yeah this is just going to be our normal brief that we normally do so without further ado let's go ahead and get started with the weather just like always so weather for isr uh over the next 24 hours is going to be quite good so like i mentioned like i try to mention as often as i can remember uh keeping an eye out for good isr weather is kind of a handy trait to have it's it's always good to be able to look up at the sky and say hey this is really good weather for uh some kind of overhead surveillance especially with the the way the world is going and the way things are looking uh today and with the topics i'm going to cover today you'll you'll see why this is important but bottom line is that over the next 12 to 24 hours the united states as a whole will have excellent excellent weather for any kind of isr it's going to be very clear clear skies from the from the surface all the way up to where isr assets would be located at also we are in a green illumination cycle meaning that the moon a moonlight is very bright that means that it's going to be very easy to see things with performance enhancing devices like uh night vision goggles and things like that so any kind of force multiplication tool that relies on amplified light like night vision devices will will be very very very effective over the next 24 hours and as we can push into the next at least the next 18 hours for all different kinds of cloud levels not just the low-level stuff we can also see that the similar things going on there all these high-level clouds are are pretty much few and far between for the majority of the united states florida's got some stuff from uh from the hurricane slash tropical depression slash whatever it is now um out there and same thing up in the uh american northeast but uh for the most part we're gonna have clear skies no matter where you're at in the country pushing forward into no tams nothing significant to report on that front uh really there's a couple of space operations but by the time this airs they will have expired so there's no need mentioning them again i just wanted to mention that if you don't know what a no tam is or why it's important we have a specific video on that so it would be a great time to learn what this stuff is because this is very basic level stuff so moving forward into the civil unrest forecast and we've got quite a few changes here the biggest two changes from the last reef are portland portland has been host to a significant amount of hostile activity from a variety of actors over the last couple of days at least the world's been kind of focused on afghanistan right now in the past couple of days so they've kind of ignored the shootings and the gun play that's been going on in the street in portland between either antifa and just pick a group right it's going to be antifa fighting them or them fighting antifa or groups that we can't even name because youtube will uh will censor us and remove this video so yeah you can check that out on your own time i'll provide some sources in the in the at the end of this but portland really big hot spot currently currently a very high state of civil unrest particularly in the downtown region likewise i'd also like to point out phoenix arizona i've upgraded it sorry i forgot to get it updated on the map but it's been updated to a unrest being highly likely and this is due to election stuff so the election audit stuff is coming out and it is um how should i say this to avoid censorship it is uh counter to what the mainstream and regime sources want you to hear so that's the best way i can think of describing it so all the trump supporters out there will be will be pretty happy uh based on what limited data has come out about the election on in arizona but again me being the uh sort of pessimist on this front i don't really think it's going to be that effective but we can talk about that later when we get to it moving forward into logistics so the western part of the united states is is facing some pretty severe weather uh sorry water shortages uh this is due to a variety of of reasons that you can research on your own but for those of you who don't live in the area you probably aren't tracking this as much as people who live in the area and it's quite bad and these things get compounded once we move into the critical infrastructure stuff on the next slide but water shortage big deal probably going to get worse uh over the you know finishing of summer into the beginning of winter also the the microchip shortage has gotten much much worse major auto manufacturers are making some serious uh serious efforts to combat that and figure out ways around it uh toyota actually just announced that they're going to cut global production of all of their vehicles by 40 percent that is devastating uh that's devastating even for just one company toyota provides a significant portion of the uh vehicle manufacturing for not just the united states but for the rest of the world and that is a huge deal volkswagen did the same thing but they did not give a percentage on how much they're having to scale back which is interesting at least i haven't seen them give a percentage their press releases were just kind of like yeah we're having to scale things back but it's probably similar to toyota because they source a lot of their parts in the same places uh also forgot to mention on the water shortage lake mead is is now in a state of severe shortage i don't know what terminology they're using but power generation has been seriously affected by that also the liquor shortage that we talked about that i mentioned last time is it's still present and it has expanded to a lot of other areas but it's really random so i just left the the icons where they were from last briefing a lot of people all over social media are complaining about liquor shortages in their area and posting pictures of like empty liquor store shelves but it's really hard to get a beat on where things are at uh our dude who man's a twitter for us is having a couldn't find really anything tangible to show you guys or be able to make an assessment as to where these are at other than where the state liquor boards have issued statements such as in these three states and also i should mention just very briefly that costco has a they're having another run another shortage on toilet paper and bottled water this i believe at this time based on what limited analysis i've been able to do on it this one seems totally social media driven it doesn't have any sort of legitimate cause it's like some journalist tweeted something because they went to a store one day and one costco around the country they tweeted it and then there you go everyone reports on it because all the reports i've been seeing on the costco toilet paper and bottled water shortage have been circular meaning that you follow them all back and they all kind of come back to the same few number of sources uh it's it's like an adult version of the telephone game but it's more devastating than just a child's game like that so pushing forward into critical infrastructure concerns uh there are three main things uh two being cyber attacks uh i just put the two biggest cyber attacks there have been a significant number of cyber attacks over the past gosh two or three months it's been i could probably spend hours and hours and hours just just typing the actual number of cyber attacks but the biggest ones have been t-mobile they had the personnel the the personal data of over 100 million users leaked breached and it's currently for sale on the dark web which is disconcerting if you're a t-mobile customer likewise mitsubishi also had a cyber attack and this is interesting because this was the uh defense infrastructure for mitsubishi so they provide a lot of the defense infrastructure for japan and things like that even in the united states they provide a lot of technical data and things like that and defense railway and electrical power grid data was stolen this if you google mitsubishi cyber attack you'll find that almost the exact same thing happened a couple years ago actually and i think it was yeah early 2020 uh they lost uh missile data so uh defense missile data was lost to hackers and mitsubishi has kind of a history of this losing defense data of all things we're not talking about you know losing someone's t-mobile password they're losing the the missile secrets and things so that's not good and then finally like i mentioned uh the water shortage out west is going to compound very soon into a power shortage because a lot of the electrical power for the west actually comes from hydroelectric facilities and if you have something like the colorado river dip really low it reduces power generation so like i mentioned these things compound so not only do you have very little drinking water for people but you also have very little power so you're gonna have these things tend to happen at the worst possible times right so you're not just gonna have to deal with one utility being out but likely both and as one gets worse the other one's going to it's going to bring the other one down with it so that's something to to be on the lookout for if you're out out west i'm sure i'm preaching to the choir for those of you who live in those areas and you you know uh if you've been affected or how severe these things are so really just for uh for situational awareness of anyone out there who's not living in those areas and then moving on to the meat uh of the briefing today significant governmental action so uh i'm gonna try to move through this as quick as possible because there is a lot of stuff and it's all kind of really depressing so first one is there have been a few more arrests for people using fake medical passports this occurred in hawaii you can check out the link that i've got in the sources that will be at the end of this but yeah this just highlights a larger argument that any attempt to go against the federal regime even to do things like traveling between states or buying food at this point will be met with a lot of force so these guys the two guys that they got arrested um i wish i could talk more about the actual circumstances of it but i'm not entirely certain because all the reporting is coming from mainstream media which is unreliable at best but this is just goes to show keep things on the down low as much as you can on that so that's all i'm going to say about that moving forward into number number two which is youtube has updated their policies their content creator policies to ban content that discusses prayer as a cure for the virus that shall not be named this is kind of once again like everything we're seeing these days it's just a foot in the door to outright banning religion on the internet or on their platform you know in general now a lot of people are gonna make the argument okay fine youtube's a private company they can do what they want well here's here's the thing on that for those of you who have not heard our many many many hours of content and podcasts and other videos on this topic it is our opinion here that if a private company either gets a significant amount of tax benefits or is affiliated with federal agencies or is in some way controlling an overwhelming part of daily life for americans their protected status of the excuse that you know libertarians love to use of oh well there's just a private company they can do what they want well it kind of loses a lot of its steam as an argument considering that how what percentage what overwhelming majority of people get their news from youtube nowadays so yeah that's how we feel on that for those of you who don't know and that's why we're continuing to report on stuff like this because it's it's just infringements are everywhere these days and it's it's kind of rough out there also speaking of infringements uh moving on to number three bank of america has once again proven that they are one of the worst or most tyrannical banks in the country they are pushing crt training on employees at to here on the slide i have it to an insane degree which is about the best way i can put it in this censorship-rich environment the source that i have in the sources you can read about it yourself but yeah bank of america is not not exactly known as being a an aboveboard bank they have a long history of things being affiliated with gun control and things like that so yeah there you go uh also 0.4 this kind of ties into the afghanistan stuff but i'm sure a lot of people have already heard right by now that the biden administration slash regime whatever you want to call it actually canceled a a relatively unknown department within the state department it's a small office called the contingency response bureau and their job they were stood up underneath the trump administration and their job was to serve as a a conduit a a point a rally point so to speak for americans that might be trapped abroad because we've had a lot of issues with this like with the philippines going downhill last year civil unrest in hong kong and things like that we kind of learned hey we need to have some kind of coordinated office specifically to help americans get get out of dodge when things go sour outside the united states and this department was created to handle that i don't know how well it functioned honestly i did not know that the department existed until a couple months ago but it uh it was cancelled uh just a few months ago uh by the biden regime and i haven't seen a good i haven't seen any reason for why they did it probably funding of course you know them trying they're trying to funnel funding to wherever they think it needs to go but yeah i just wanted to bring that up because it's a very interesting little tidbit that kind of it's one of those little little dominoes that falls over months ago and now the big indiana jones style boulders rolling at us from that and point number five is new york city is launching a new program uh which essentially what they're doing is paying people to not shoot people and this is actually not a new program this is a program that has come out it was created in california of course and new york city is adopting it and it's very interesting if you read the details of the actual program it's going to be a monthly check that people get for not shooting someone so if they don't get convicted or suspected of shooting someone and if they meet with their sort of parole officer they'll get a check and this is for both ex-cons and um people who are not uh people have never been arrested or never convicted of anything so interesting program uh completely dystopian in nature but it's interesting that if you look at the wording it's almost like they're expecting a certain demographic of people to show up and claim the check for this which is um interesting to say the least and the number six uh our boy hunter uh he's he's lost himself another laptop um as i'm sure a lot of people have heard by now or maybe not many people at all depending on how much this has been censored uh yeah he there's a video that came out i can't show it here of course due to youtube's policies but uh he stated in the video that he he thinks he lost it to the russian mafia and that they are going to use that laptop and the um promiscuous illicit videos on that laptop to blackmail him so there you go um that's all i'm gonna say on that i know that if if i had done that they'd throw me under the jail but whatever moving on we got more important stuff to talk about so number seven rand paul issued an interesting statement i'm not sure how many people have seen it uh in which he issued a it was a few minute long video in which the primary message that has gotten out is his quote that he says it's time for us to resist and quote they can't arrest us all when it comes to things like these lockdowns and stuff like that so um our own feelings about rand paul aside uh i think it's very interesting to see at least some politicians saying these words in this you know context out loud it's very interesting to see that i don't know if it'll be effective again politicians i'd you know we here just as part of our own analytical process don't trust any politician whatsoever or any elected official whatsoever but it's interesting to see this rhetoric getting out there if nothing else uh also number eight this is something that we have tried to do a lot of research on but it's just because it's just the shadiest thing i've seen in a while um a lot of people are calling the headline are the headlines are that this guy this was a false flag event um there the short story is this this guy uh drives his truck which he has allegedly loaded with explosives and such parks right outside the library of congress and uh has a standoff situation with police the problem is is that it looks really really fishy because it was right on the same exact day that people were falling off airplanes in kabul so it looked to me it looked to a lot of people like it was just a distraction from what's going on like it was your textbook false flag this guy was allegedly in his own live stream video had significant you know devices and things like that and all that kind of stuff and it was well thought out and planned and things like that and then he just immediately surrenders as soon as the police show up the standoff was like less than an hour so uh very fishy uh to say the least uh for a lot of people and um yeah we're probably never gonna hear anything more about it it's just going to be lost to the internet but i did want to record it here on this date for posterity i guess all right so moving on to number nine uh house resolution 49 53 basically banning most guns basically other gun channels who have better luck avoiding youtube censorship than we do uh have talked a lot more about what this bill contains so definitely check that out definitely actually read it don't listen to somebody actually just tell you what's in it read it it's not that long it's not that hard to read it just read it and you'll see what i'm talking about number 10 also had some interesting issues with their uh mail-in ballots so uh a viral video that has gone around uh shows that a lot of the the for specifically for the california recall election which is a mail-in only election which is interesting how an elected official who is who had to create a recall election gets to dictate that the election is going to be held on his terms but nonetheless uh the ballots actually have holes punched in them the the envelopes have holes punched in them and if you fold your ballot the wrong way that hole on the envelope lines up perfectly to show how you voted and a lot of people are claiming that this just makes it easier for people to look at the outside of your envelope and without even being able without even having to open the envelope they can see how you voted and they can decide what to do with that ballot so i'll just leave it there on that so that we don't get censored yet again i know i keep mentioning that but it's it's really become a pain and moving on to number 11 is that the byzantine administration as many people have already pointed out has issued sanctions on russia but the sanctions are actually hurting the united states more because they are he is banning all russian-made ammunition and weapons so basically all of your steel cased ammunition will be illegal uh for import at least not even not illegal for possession yet but uh it's illegal to import and that's a problem uh because for those of you out there who who are not into aks or steel cased ammo roughly 40 percent of all of the ammunition that is imported in the united states is russian in origin so that's a problem for you because guess what 40 percent of the market uh is now going to be coming for your brass ammunition and that is a huge huge uh stab in the back for the gun community uh in a time when ammunition is already in very very short supply so yeah very interesting uh timing on that i'll that's how i'll say that and then finally uh house resolution 4980 this is the one that is alarming very very alarming as well it should be and it probably won't go anywhere just yet but it give it time this is a bill which i'll put it up here on the screen for you it is a bill to put everyone who has not been jabbed with the medical treatment that shall not be named on on a no-fly list so yeah um if that does not alarm you and if i have to explain why this is a bad thing check out our other content um because this is just a prelude again just a boot in the door and if this is not an infringement on basic human life i don't know what it is so yeah like i mentioned i it's very and it's very early stages very very early stages it was just filed like a week ago or last you know acted on a week ago so i don't know how quickly this is going to to go through anything i don't know if it will pass as it stands right now probably not there's probably going to be some riders on it but yeah a very very alarming stuff while the world is stuck watching uh afghanistan and before i move on i did not put it on the slide uh because i did not have time and i didn't want to put just one puck on a blank slide but 75 doctors just walked out of their hospital in florida for reportedly this is of course coming from mainstream media which is circulating the story like wildfire but reportedly they're quitting because they are sick and tired of treating people who have not gotten the medical procedure that shall not be named now a lot of people are looking at this and saying this is a violation of the the hippocratic oath it's turning it into the hypocritic oath uh because you're supposed to trigger treat people regardless of why they're there and a lot of conservative pundits and and social media accounts are running with this one as to be expected but i would just like to point out that at least you know with these doctors at least they told you how they feel about it before and they quit their job rather than harm you with a medical procedure without your knowledge based on something like that what would you what would you rather have a doctor that tells you uh that they hate you to your face or would you rather have a doctor who pretends to be nice to your face but then gives you the wrong medication for an unrelated uh an unrelated condition which can make you worse or they don't give you the best care that you can provide so honestly any kind of doctor that is willing to differentiate between patients like that is a good riddance in my opinion uh because they have no business anywhere near any medical facility whatsoever that's all i have to say on that and we'll move forward into afghanistan so i'm sure a lot of people have checked out our recent content on this rapidly unfolding fiasco but the myself and the rest of the team here have have put in considerable uh effort to uh provide as many resources as possible so we've already got a handful of intelligence briefings by day uh the last one uh covered uh two days a two-day period and all of the briefs cover something different so if you have not if you're just tuning in now to what the afghanistan situation is please check out those videos that's the about the best that we can do now we also have other resources so on our odyssey page you can download all the tools that we've created all of the graphics everything like that and that should help uh at least maybe some people now i should mention that the stuff that we're covering on the afghanistan situation right now is really our main lines of effort are focused on getting americans out and and our allies uh at this at the same time but we're really really hyper focused on getting americans out because the americans seem to be having a very hard time getting to the airport and that's something that we're desperately desperately trying to help with along with you know tens of thousands of others out there so we're by no means really making a huge difference but maybe we can make a little difference that's why we're dedicating so much time to this now moving on to a topic that everyone is kind of getting getting a lot of feelings out of the way right now there are a lot of people talking about afghanistan and offering up their their own opinions on the subject but for us when it comes to the afghan conflict as a whole and not just the recent rescue stuff but the actual war itself we're going to take some time to process this one and try to figure out a way to convey our thoughts uh for those who want to hear them uh in such a way so as to not be too long or insanely boring i i know i myself could talk about afghanistan for days and days and not even scratch the surface um so we're going to take a we're going to take a page out of the taliban's book and and be patient on this one we have a lot of time to talk about this war and even more time to look back on it and learn from it so that's what we're really trying to do people can have their own opinions that's all well and good but really when it comes to our organization here we're trying to learn learn things and and put those things into practice for for when we might have to use them so plus a lot of people have far more time in country than we do and they have a lot to say about certain things and we want to simply avoid echoing what others have already said about the whole afghanistan conflict but all of that being said and considering the number of people out there that are are looking for answers um the number of people out there that are kind of avoiding following the the afghanistan rescue mission stuff because it's just too painful uh to watch i understand that i i completely do i'm not going to fault anybody for not trying to help um because it is really a horrendously bad thing that a lot of people are dealing with right now and because of that i will take the time to lay out a few different sentiments that are going around to to put it simply right now the afghanistan fiasco is bringing uh bringing up a lot of different wide-ranging issues i would argue that most of the issues that are coming out regarding afghanistan are far beyond the actual war itself and perhaps even more important than the decades that we spent there perhaps most on the nose are the gritty details about the evacuations themselves the the the government and and the federal regime in the united states really really um screwing this up and uh not really when people pointed out that they're screwing it up not really um doing much about it and we're just sitting here and there's really not as much being done not everything that could be done is getting done and the things that are getting done are very very few and far between so that's something that's being highlighted for a lot of people and really that that has really wide ranging um effects like the in the international community the us international situation right now is is a joke uh honestly even though i personally have lived for years in the world of international diplomacy i have never really considered any international issue to directly affect my day-to-day life but these days i'm not so sure the the consequences of globalism mean that something that happens on the other side of the world could affect you even before you find out about it and that's a huge huge thing to to consider in today's world and things can even strike really close to home the gun control debate is being proven to be just pure insanity at this point by what's going on in afghanistan the raw nature of what's going on in kabul right now and the taliban confiscating millions of weapons immediately is something that nobody can spend i don't care how much you want to try to warp what's going on you just can't and also a lot of the the the sort of woke-ism that that's going around surrounding the feeling of quote-unquote oppression here in the united states i mean yeah the footage in kabul alone is enough to prove to anyone that certain groups of people that claim to be oppressed here in the united states clearly have no idea what real oppression is same thing applies to the concepts of freedom a lot of people are observing what it's like to not have freedom watching the television screen and seeing the taliban take over that that tv screen might as well be a window into the future of the united states at least when it comes to the idea of freedom right no the united states is not afghanistan but a lot of parallels are being played out in real time for the whole world to see and even though people might not realize what they're thinking they definitely feel it and along these lines of a lot of old issues are being brought up and back out into the open again and people who are not even alive for 9 11 are now starting to read history just a little bit and they're starting to ask questions like how is it that the practice of the chai boys and the production of heroin was was banned under the taliban when they were in power but the us government is well known to cover up the rampant abuse of children in afghanistan so much so that it's an atrocity that most u.s soldiers remember about their deployment and like 90 of the world's heroin now comes from afghanistan like what how did that happen we went from having some of the world's most effective if not you know tyrannical i mean it's a taliban right some of the world's most effective drug counter drug operations being run by the taliban throughout the entire country and then like just a couple years later that the world's producer of heroin it's interesting and people are starting to to read and this dirty laundry is getting aired right and speaking of the military man the military is just taking gut punch after gut punch these days uh senior military leadership is just purely insane completely incompetent and just willing to step over a stack of bodies just to get that promotion or that position on the board of raytheon we and many others are now realizing just how crippled our military is especially at senior levels but finally now some other people are starting to take notice due to the blatant lies that are being told like millie stated that there were no indications that the taliban could take the country in 11 days that is a complete and utter lie and you know who else knows it's a lie literally every man and woman who's ever set foot in that country the fall of afghanistan is proving how woke the us military is again at the senior level and this is devastating our nation almost every day people are watching a nation collapse in real time they are not seeing some black and white photo of saigon days after the fact no we're we're all watching the ugly side of all wars and hd video and that raw stuff that that unsensible and unspendable truth of how barbaric the world really is well this is something different from the blanket of propaganda that the overwhelming majority of americans are living under 24 7. everyone who is alive at the time remembers 9 11. well the the fall of afghanistan might now be as directly impacting on the homeland but again in a snapchat and tick-tock age people are not going to forget this anytime soon and perhaps even more significantly witnessing the fall of a nation highlights just how vulnerable our own situation is now more than ever the average american knows that to change our situation f-15s and nuclear weapons are not needed granted that idea is certainly going to embolden the people that have been salivating over the prospect of civil war for a long time now but by and large right now is the time in which most people have the potential to realize that we can change our situation and it doesn't take a significant amount of military force to do it this afghanistan situation is bringing up a lot of things even the concepts of responsibility integrity and consequences are lessons that are being learned or not learned by a lot of people these days no matter how much certain groups in society want to avoid personal responsibility for everything the world finds a way of bringing that responsibility to your doorstep having the honor and the integrity to do the right thing even when faced with adversity is most definitely a dying art and just because something is a human right just because you have the right to do something does not mean that there won't be consequences for doing so consequences are simply cause and effect they don't have to be fair at this point in time if you take actions to resist the federal regime you are going to have to understand that there are consequences for doing so just like those guys in hawaii learn the hard way in a time where liking certain social media posts is being labeled as terrorism you have to realize that any form of resistance no matter how small will not be tolerated much longer and the consequences for resisting anyway might mean that you have to significantly alter your lifestyle to avoid being arrested by agents of the federal government of the state or whatever you want to call it some people like us think that this arrangement is unfortunate but we are willing to accept these consequences and more importantly the lifestyle changes that allow us to continue to exist even as an organization who knew that the end of the afghan war would trigger thoughts like this but here we are but there is some good news so in trying to avoid ending on such a melancholy note uh i just off the top of my head thought up for really good things or at least productive things that we can actually rely on moving forward into the future so number one is that quote unquote normal people are starting to realize that the true nature of the us government right so everybody's got that uncle right out there that you know they can be right 99 of the time but if they present their arguments like alex jones presents his arguments most people just don't believe it even if it's true right even if it's true most people don't believe it so most normal people as in people who don't really they don't understand what a lot of this stuff is they're not very well read or they're just living for the next snapchat video right those people are starting to realize that the us government might not have their best interest in mind and i won't go down the rabbit hole of the concept of governance itself as i really think that argument is unproductive at this point but this fiasco in afghanistan is most certainly highlighting more than any other incident since probably the snowden leaks what our government has become at the risk of really ticking off all the libertarians in the room again for the millionth time i think that most people think that some form of government governance is an all right thing most people think this right we can argue about how much and what it should do and what it looks like but for the most part the idea of some kind of governing body is one defining characteristics of a nation-state right however now perhaps more than ever before our current government has lost its way to put it lightly and this afghanistan debacle is indirectly pointing that out also number two is this disaster is settling the debate on a lot of u.s domestic issues like i mentioned before everything from gun control to what some social groups in the us call oppression is being destroyed in real time people who think that they are oppressed are being proven to not be with every video clip that comes out of afghanistan so that's an interesting little side note that indirectly affects things number three is the the precious and precarious nature of freedom has never been clearer in modern times freedom is a unique concept or at least the us version of it is and this afghanistan rescue disaster is bringing into context questions like well what is a right anyway who can grant rights who can protect them uh chances are if you have even found this video your you already know the answers to these questions but most americans haven't even thought about it since these philosophical concepts are again not exactly found on tick-tock or only fans and finally number four this incident might be a good way to trigger people to think about ways of reducing tyranny in their own lives sometimes a good kick in the seat of the pants is what's needed to trigger actions horrific acts are usually quite motivating for those who witness them and there have been a plethora of horrific actions during this afghanistan disaster people will remember what happened those thousands of americans on the ground will remember too and they will not just remember the atrocities of war that's something that anyone who's experienced it never forgets for better or for worse but these guys will remember their cowardly and dishonorable officers and senior enlisted over them who at every turn at every decision point decided to do the wrong thing if they were sitting back state-sized shuffling paperwork we might not have known that they were dishonorable cowards but we do now since they were put in that situation and we will never forget that so yeah hopefully that was helpful in pointing out at least some of the things that have been kind of orbiting out there some ideas have just been floating around and uh people haven't really been able to grasp at because they're they feel a certain way about it there's a lot of things going around everybody is it feels a different thing about this whole afghanistan situation ranging from the people who could not care less and probably skipped right through this segment on youtube to the people who are actively on the ground who are trying to save as many lives as possible so the people who are uninformed and they just don't know what to feel about it to the people that are just kind of apathetic about the whole thing right i'm not pointing fingers or accusing anyone of anything i'm just saying that there's a lot of stuff going on and before everybody you know tunes into their favorite podcast who's inevitably going to talk about this it's just i think important to recognize that other stuff is going on and that a lot of opinions are out there and yeah hopefully that was at least helpful in illustrating that so let's go ahead and close out uh with some international issues some other things that have been going around first australia australia has had an interesting time uh we've gotten uh dms and uh information from a lot of different people in australia some people say it's interesting because americans have this idea that that australia is basically the worst dystopian novel that you could ever imagine and the effect is clearly not illustrated by the australians themselves some some australians yes some australians are very highly highly concerned vastly more concerned than americans are with what's going on in their own country but also some australians really don't care um so it's very interesting to see both sides of the coin on that some australians are in the government and they say hey you know this is really not that it's not as big of a deal as people are making it out to be and then other people and you know civilians and citizens and things like that are saying ah no it's actually worse so just remember to take everything with a grain of salt i would agree that the situation in australia does not look good from a u.s context now we have to be careful with putting united states values on another country you know even though australia is very similar to the united states when we speak the same language we have a lot of the same cultures uh however we're different countries and when forming analysis or forming opinions about another country it's kind of i would say not the most accurate way to do it would be to implant your own american values on another country even if they seem to be more similar than dissimilar there's they're dissimilar enough to mean your analysis will be skewed so keep an eye on australia if you're in australia and watching this good luck uh with what's going on um but yeah france is also dealing with much the same thing but the french are a little bit more united it seems it seems to me like they're a little bit more united a lot more people have been protesting in france uh over the same exact thing uh or much the same thing so that's going to be interesting to follow especially with france um dealing with the refugee crisis and things like that uh moving forward with the afghanistan situation it's gonna be interesting to see what they do with their anti-lockdown protesters and china uh like i sort of briefly mentioned already china has directly made threatening statements toward taiwan and they've directly stated that the us will abandon taiwan just like we abandoned afghanistan so like i mentioned this international stuff man it comes to a head real real quick and i can tell you as bad as the afghanistan situation looks a conflict with taiwan or with china words cannot express how bad that's going to get immediately so once again keep your eye on froggy china and they're they're gonna do some interesting stuff over the next few weeks i would almost certainly guarantee that they've that they're going to fly a lot of missions uh into uh with their aircraft into taiwan's air defense interdiction zone that's most likely going to happen at least until the afghanistan situation gets tamped down because well the world knows where our aircraft are right they're flying in and out of kabul right now so there you go and finally iran is enriching uranium again this one kind of got buried in the news this week but they are indeed in reaching uranium by several orders of magnitude more than what they're allowed to by the international atomic energy agency and yeah whatever you feel about that you know i i guess everybody feels again different about iran doing their own thing but again it's iran it's nukes it's you know something to to definitely keep an eye on as we move forward into the future so just wanted to give another shout out another special thank you to all of our patreon supporters it has really helped out helped us out a lot especially with our rising costs and the situation here with where we're at uh it really makes it possible we got we've gotten to the point where we could not do it without you guys uh so we really really do thank you from the bottom of all of our hearts for everything that you guys do for us so thank you once again uh here are our sources for this i've got a couple more to add to this before i drop it so this um the pdf of these slides will be available uh on our platforms uh wherever you can find them you the links for the platforms at least will be in the the description box usually it'll be on odyssey and a few other things as well you guys on patreon you guys know you got the slides already um but yeah uh thanks again uh everybody stay sane out there uh try to do the best you can and uh we've got a busy few few weeks ahead of us so let's uh let's settle in for the long haul like always and make sure we keep our head on a swivel for anything that might uh might come out and uh affect us so thanks again and we will see you guys next time and always remember fight in the shade
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OCT 25 Intel Update: Be Careful What You Wish For

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Intel Update · 2021-09-19

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Intel Update · 2021-08-20

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Intel Update · 2021-08-21

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