Ukraine Update: Wooden Horses

hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground this is the ukrainian war intelligence update for friday the 18th of february 2022 and it is being recorded the day prior on the 17th we've got a lot of stuff to talk about today so let's jump right into the geopolitical update i'm not going to spend too much time talking about geopolitics because there's just way too much going on there's a lot of stuff going on out there and most of it's really not that helpful so i'm just going to touch on the stuff that is interesting first up are the nations that have either closed their embassies or moved their embassies to the western parts of ukraine the united states has closed their embassy in kiev and are moving a temporary uh a temporary embassy out west to levov it is unclear as to whether or not that's going to be an operational embassy i haven't really looked into it that much but when it comes to americans in ukraine the good news is that poland is now allowing americans to cross land borders into poland without any prior authorization or visas or stuff like that you can just get all your stuff there right at the border which is good for those of you who are looking to get out zation or visas or stuff like that you can just get all your stuff there right at the border which is good for those of you who are looking to get out of ukraine speaking of evacuations we're also seeing an unprecedented number of private jets leaving ukraine if you're following a lot of the flight tracker and like open source uh ads adsb trackers you'll notice there are an awful lot of private planes leaving uh ukraine uh one-way trips and going to other countries like romania hungary places like that so i thought that's kind of interesting that a lot of the um senior like economic leaders in the country have left actually ukraine the the current political leadership had issues statements urging their uh people to come back people who are civil servants uh to come back to the country so um that's just kind of the way things work out and kind of hints as to what people in very powerful positions are thinking about the potential for invasion speaking of air travel a few airlines mostly klm is the biggest one have canceled their flights to ukraine so they're avoiding all ukrainian airspace and this kind of makes sense because ukraine has a very long history of of civilian airliners b to ukraine so they're avoiding all ukrainian airspace and this kind of makes sense because ukraine has a very long history of of civilian airliners being shot down during this conflict most european or really every airline has been avoiding the eastern part of ukraine for a very long time now because of that but now it looks like a few airlines are extending that to the entire country so if you're trying to escape ukraine if you're trying to leave you know airline travel might not be just like what we've been saying is airline travel might not be that reliable something also of note uh in russia is or or really rather disputed territory is the american submarine incident between the united states and russia so a lot of people aren't aware of what went on with this and we still really don't know the full story really all we're getting is russia's side of the story but the short version of this is that the russian navy intercepted detected and intercepted an american virginia-class submarine operating in their territorial waters off the kuril islands this was a few days ago the russians claim that they you have used kinetic measures to sort of you know encourage the united states su e kuril islands this was a few days ago the russians claim that they you have used kinetic measures to sort of you know encourage the united states submarine to leave their waters and the u.s submarine left at high speed now if this sounds a little fishy that's probably because it is there's a lot of things wrong with the russian version of the story for one the virginia class submarines are very hard to detect and the vessels that were in the area the russia claims detected the submarine that's going to be a hard task for those ancient vessels so there's that i don't doubt for one minute that the united states does not have submarines shadowing the exercises off the curl islands the russian naval exercises but it just doesn't sound right the us navy has of course denied the entire thing and russia has refused to give any kind of proof as to knocking the american submarine out of their waters or something like that the reason i'm having a hard time defining it is because russia has used very shady language they've said they used special means to get the united states submarine to leave i don't know what that means it can be anything there's a lot of different things that go on in t al means to get the united states submarine to leave i don't know what that means it can be anything there's a lot of different things that go on in the sub-world diplomatically so it could be everything from some kind of special acoustic measure or even some kind of kinetic measure to uh to warn the us submarine off but again they're being very vague about it and it sounds a lot like russian propaganda at this point and really the kind of the kind of nail in the coffin for this is this image um which has been circulating around a lot of russian language chats and a lot of russian media claiming that this is an american countermeasure an acoustics countermeasure for an american submarine as in the russians scared the american submarine and they deployed acoustic countermeasures to escape and distract and cover their retreat and here's proof right well here's the problem this is actually not american this is a russian anti-submarine or submarine countermeasure system uh this is a very actually a this this image pulled up on the internet quite a long time ago and it's very interesting because it's kind of a classified system for the russians so this torpedo-like system is is really a t quite a long time ago and it's very interesting because it's kind of a classified system for the russians so this torpedo-like system is is really an electronic countermeasure right it's a an acoustic countermeasure system that can deploy other countermeasures at least we think in the sub-world these are not particularly new they've been around for a while but they're new to most people i think but the interesting part is is that this image of one kind of washing up on the shore there is russian it was due to their russians testing on their own systems and yet a lot of russian language platforms are claiming that this is american so kind of interesting and kind of the nail in the coffin that proves that probably didn't occur did a russian surface vessel or other submarine detect an american submarine yeah probably maybe who knows it's literally impossible to know submarine diplomacy is one of those things where you're never really going to know what actually happened until probably 40 years later but it was kind of interesting so i wanted to mention it also russia has got an exercise coming up which is kind of a regular exercise for them that most people call the grom exercise it wanted to mention it also russia has got an exercise coming up which is kind of a regular exercise for them that most people call the grom exercise it's basically their exercise for world war three it's to test their nuclear triad and the communication systems between their submarines their bombers and their land-based systems so a lot of people are thinking that this russian nuclear style exercise is really a way to deter nato from doing very much when russia invades ukraine so ukraine gets a ukraine gets invaded by russia nato gets a little squirrely russia uses exercise as a way to kind of dominate or try to encourage nato to not do very much so i thought i'd point that out because it's it's kind of an important thing moving on to our naval update don't really have much for the ga uk gap or the north sea so i'm just going to skip right to the med where there's a lot of activity now this slide is outdated we've been updating the slides in between briefings as some of you probably know i've been uploading these slides as regularly as we can between the videos that come out and this has changed quite a bit so at the time we made this slide there were a grand total of 12 russian lan we can between the videos that come out and this has changed quite a bit so at the time we made this slide there were a grand total of 12 russian landing craft or landing ships in underway in the black sea a few of them have come back and a few of them have gone back out again so we're still counting to figure out who's where but roughly speaking there's still a lot of activity going on in the black sea as well as the med there's been a lot of activity it's really hard to kind of track where these vessels are at because usually by the time that we get either a satellite image of where they're at or an ais pain of where they're at they've already moved so that's just something to keep in mind but right now in the med and in the black sea there is a lot of steel in the water moving to the overall update for ukraine we've kind of had to simplify this graphic a little bit it's still not perfect of course it's very far from perfect but i just wanted to show you the major units that are that are here in theater because this is going to be a high level map we just have too many icons at this point so let's go ahead and jump to the actual fronts on the northeastern front this is where we' a high level map we just have too many icons at this point so let's go ahead and jump to the actual fronts on the northeastern front this is where we're seeing most activity as of the past 48 hours that's why we've drawn a little flat there a little frontline enemy troops just so people understand what's more likely to occur right over the border just on the other side of the border of kharkiv in russia we're seeing a lot of units move to what we think are their final staging positions this is something that the us government has also backed up if you trust them which you shouldn't honestly but even ocean trackers on twitter can show you pictures of these units moving to their final staging locations we're seeing units move really really close to the border in this particular area so this is kind of the highest tension part of the entire ukrainian border at this time but we have other things to mention as well so let's jump a little bit closer into the car key front and see what's going on so like i mentioned we're seeing a lot of units being staged in belgrade and then moving out from belgrade to other further locations closer to the ukrainian border such as certino vessela lopez ts being staged in belgrade and then moving out from belgrade to other further locations closer to the ukrainian border such as certino vessela lopez and the shebacchino depot these are basically just fields little either defunct old soviet bases that they're revitalizing or places like that we can get more into specifics to some of these as time goes on but i also wanted to point out that in belgrade we're starting to see a lot of the tos ones mlrs move into the area as well now these are some nasty weapons i wanted to point that out because it's an interesting concept that not a lot of people think about and these are like your standard mlrs but the warheads that they're being used that they that these systems use are they have the capability for using newer thermobaric types of weapons basically it's very comparable to our highmars system here we have in the us the the grid square eraser right but this does it with thermobaric weapons and that's just really really nasty the reason that i want to mention this specifically is because we saw during the battle for the donetsk airport a lot of ukrainians claiming that thermobaric weapons were used against them and that these specific we saw during the battle for the donetsk airport a lot of ukrainians claiming that thermobaric weapons were used against them and that these specific weapons were used against them and there wasn't a whole lot of conclusiveness to that i would say it's pretty conclusive based on the the pictures of the bodies it's something that you really don't want to talk about at the dinner table to be honest but the international community was like i don't really know well now we're seeing these units being kind of openly transported not even you know being covered whereas the first time they were allegedly used it was very secret so now we know that not only do these units exist but they're also exist in this theater and they also exist with the kinds of weapons that we think they have so again confidence level in this is you know moderate i guess but we've seen these on trains being unloaded from bell garage so you know take it for what it's worth i guess so jumping into a couple of specific locations i wanted to talk about belgrade farp for a second this is an interesting one uh because this uh this is a jump farp a a forward arming and refueling point for helicopters this points to russia second this is an interesting one uh because this uh this is a jump farp a a forward arming and refueling point for helicopters this points to russia's recent i shouldn't say doctrinal change which is just kind of what they do now which is rely heavily on helicopters for movement and this is a perfect location for it it's only 36k from the ukrainian border it's a nice safe area this is an old cold war base that's just kind of in the middle of nowhere even though it's on the outskirts of belgrade there it's still really a remote location um but that's what they're they're using this location to stage a lot of their helicopters so similar situation over here in vessela lopen uh this is just a normal civilian town uh interestingly enough when the russians got here they weren't actually using the camp that's uh to the northwest of town they were actually uh staging their t-80s and different kinds of ifvs like bmps and such along the railway so civilians were able to get really close to these um parked vehicles and get a lot of good pictures of them so something very interesting but now we're mostly seeing them staged just to the northwest of town there just wanted to mention this beca res of them so something very interesting but now we're mostly seeing them staged just to the northwest of town there just wanted to mention this because again we found out about this camp and really the ocean community found out about this camp right as russia was claiming that they were pulling back and we're seeing you know videos on twitter of tanks being offloaded um quite clearly uh and then sent to this camp here moving out east we've actually seen a little bit of an increase in conflict along the eastern front now when it comes to the actual conflict it's hard to say where the conflict has occurred there have been a lot of ceasefire violations over the past few days but the international monitoring group for the ceasefire has actually started to pull out of this area so they're getting ready to evacuate so it's really hard to say how effective the international monitors are um at checking out the conflict in eastern ukraine so they haven't said that they've fully left yet but it's kind of it's kind of obvious that everybody in eastern ukraine is thinking about leaving so i guess we'll have to see how effective they are at monitoring the conflict over the next few days also eastern ukraine is thinking about leaving so i guess we'll have to see how effective they are at monitoring the conflict over the next few days also diplomatically we're seeing a lot of things uh being claimed by the russians that i'm not quite certain how to think about just yet for instance the russians are claiming that they have discovered a lot of mass graves in eastern ukraine and as such a lot of western analysts are thinking ah this is russia's excuse to invade um to stop the genocide right because putin himself has used the word genocide a lot to describe what's going on in eastern ukraine never mind that it actually has been the russians shelling civilians this entire time but anyway just wanted to point that out that we are aware of the rhetoric and the language that's being used um it's just really hard for us to kind of narrow that down at this time and say do we know definitively what this true story is along the southern front like i mentioned lots of vessels out in the water there have been a lot of aircraft being staged in the crimean peninsula as well mostly at defunct air force bases we've got over 70 helicopters at one old old school soviet base so yeah again s ged in the crimean peninsula as well mostly at defunct air force bases we've got over 70 helicopters at one old old school soviet base so yeah again southern front looks like it's preparing now again i should mention that the russians have put out statements saying look we're withdrawing from our positions we're leaving we're coming back they're sending troops back and they publish videos of trains loaded with equipment and soldiers being moved back east across the crimean bridge here's the problem with that though a lot of those units um they're actually closer to ukraine's border when they go home to their home units they just move right around to the eastern front uh they're closer to ukraine when they go home than they are in crimea which is interesting also we're seeing a lot of those units that russia has in their own videos popping up closer to the border again either to the north or to the east so again it's really hard to say what's going on but it sounds a lot it sounds to me like there is a lot of russian gaslighting going on when it comes to yeah we're pulling our forces back when we can clearly see ourselves that that's not the case and that's completely irrelevant of on when it comes to yeah we're pulling our forces back when we can clearly see ourselves that that's not the case and that's completely irrelevant of of any american rhetoric on this like i can download the satellite images and and i can go on twitter and count tanks just as well as anybody else can and i can myself can see that ah the russians aren't pulling out anybody just yet under the western front really not a whole lot going on other than the united states issuing do not travel orders for transnistria and moldova and beginning like sort of evacuation processes for those countries as well but i'm not really sure how how significant that is other than maybe a push for odessa if it comes to that like i mentioned the the reason that we're talking about this front is because it's it's it's important especially for odessa so we'll definitely keep an eye on it but there's really not a whole lot going on there at the moment moving to the northwestern front we have a lot of activity here as well and a very interesting story that has unfolded over the past few days so let's dive in a little closer first up i wanted to talk a little bit about bufgorka camp from last time just to show y olded over the past few days so let's dive in a little closer first up i wanted to talk a little bit about bufgorka camp from last time just to show you some updates to it so here's the overall satellite image here's the image we showed last time and here is imagery as of the ninth showing that vehicles have moved this is something that we expected as soon as we dropped the video on it and as soon as other uh ocean entities became aware of this location it's not particularly new these guys have been there for a very long time but again just because we're talking about it in a video does not mean that we just discovered it these guys have been there for quite a while so i don't want to say that russia moved these assets due to we here you know exposing their position but that would also not surprise me so to those out there in the intel or operations world don't think that we're naive in this regard we are fully aware of who's reading these products i just wanted to point out that we here are thinking about these things and being as considerate as possible towards the planning efforts of those who are more better suited to doing good than we can if nothing else a little healthy comp nsiderate as possible towards the planning efforts of those who are more better suited to doing good than we can if nothing else a little healthy competition coming from ourselves and agency in the open source world with almost no resources can encourage the us intelligence community to up their game after all no commander wants to see that some guy on youtube with an internet connection has better intelligence than their active duty s2 shop that's the way it should be i wouldn't want that either ocean is a tool in the toolbox not the entire toolbox so if our work can encourage our active duty counterparts to be better instead of stealing paragraphs or grants them that nobody will read or sitting on merc chat all day long with a bag of cheetos that's a good thing in our book and now moving to a big bit of news that has been taking the osant world and the journalistic world by storm for the past couple of days that is this pontoon bridge that has been set up in belarus now for those of you that keep up with ocean and know what has happened to this bridge hang on for just a minute and let's take a look at the overall area of this bridge because this really doesn't show us that much m ened to this bridge hang on for just a minute and let's take a look at the overall area of this bridge because this really doesn't show us that much moving out we can see the ukrainian border up there the chernobyl exclusion zone there in orange and the pontoon bridge itself as you can see it is very close to the border it is six kilometers as the crow flies uh to the border there within the belarusian side of the uh chernobyl exclusion zone and as we can see it's very close to kiev as well so let's jump out of the satellite image and go to a street map image so we can talk a little bit more about this location one of the reasons that the world is all abuzz about this bridge is that it's kind of a big deal with regards to wet gap crossings in other words militaries have to cross bodies of water and pontoon bridges are the way to do that and if you put a pontoon bridge here it looks an awful lot like you're trying to move forces or enable the freedom of movement for forces really close to the border because the next bridge that can be used by armored vehicles to actually cross the pripyat river is all the way north in missouri so as the crow flies that's 66 kilometers so one might t used by armored vehicles to actually cross the pripyat river is all the way north in missouri so as the crow flies that's 66 kilometers so one might think that hey if troops are trying to move in this direction they're going to need to cross this bridge and then they can punch right through in across the border into the exclusion zone very good way for troops to move around otherwise they would have to go all the way over here to measure and then head south right so that's why people are thinking about this is like holy cow this is like the smoking gun when it comes to russia trying to invade ukraine this is like the most important news ever right well not really for one the biggest bit of evidence kind of against this pontoon bridge being any kind of use whatsoever is that russia is already on the other side of the river that's where these units are right now that's exactly what they did they went to major they crossed over and now they're right there and yelts right across the border so they're kind of already on the other side of the river another bit of information is that when you look at a map like this you tend to forget something and that is what the weather's like so let's he river another bit of information is that when you look at a map like this you tend to forget something and that is what the weather's like so let's zoom in a little bit and take a look at some recent sentinel imagery here's where the pontoon bridge is and here's the rest of the pripyat river it's kind of frozen now granted the ice in the pripyat river might not be thick enough to drive a tank over you need a many inches of ice for a tank to be able to drive across it right and the thinning patches of ice that we see up to the northern parts of the pripyat river that kind of you know indicates this it's probably not thick enough for for a tank to drive across but i also find it pretty hard to believe that the russians wouldn't be able to find a better spot to cross they clearly chose this spot because of the open water for a reason so taking all of this into account and just kind of absorbing all of the information that's out there about this pontoon bridge we come to a few different conclusions or really a few different explanations uh for why this bridge can be there the first of which is the one that everybody's saying which is that this bridge is a legitimate attempt for russ s uh for why this bridge can be there the first of which is the one that everybody's saying which is that this bridge is a legitimate attempt for russia to be able to increase their freedom of maneuver right next to the border so that they can strike fast and strike hard right you know even though they can use the bridge up in measure it's probably a little bit easier to have a bridge a little bit closer down to the border if they're trying to invade somebody again i don't think this is likely i think this is extremely unlikely knowing what we know now but i'll get to that in a minute the other immediate thought that comes to mind is that this is something shiny for the americans to look at right it's a distraction in other words it's something for a ukraine to get all upset about because it's six kilometers from their border that should be a hint in and of itself because you don't want to build something that close to the border when even light even light artillery can take it out right so the fact that it's so close to the ukrainian border is presents a risk so something to think about right another big hint but again this could purely be a distraction with no intention of russia border is presents a risk so something to think about right another big hint but again this could purely be a distraction with no intention of russia using it whatsoever but really what i think is most likely is that this bridge serves multiple roles for one russia benefits by keeping tensions high right now right they look like they're the ones who are in the right and the west is in the wrong they're able to keep their propaganda machine going in overdrive it keeps the morale for troops high and it again allows the americans to be embarrassed once again russia time after time even just over the past couple of weeks russia's actions have been very good at getting the west to react to them when in actuality russia is just sitting back and letting the west you know make fools of itself again russia has gotten really good at gaslighting the united states for one but also making western leadership look like fools through their own actions russia is really good at pinpointing something and then doing something to make the west react and then the west looks like an idiot so this is a good way to do that a pontoon bridge is pretty cheap to install it's it's very easy to do and it's very then the west looks like an idiot so this is a good way to do that a pontoon bridge is pretty cheap to install it's it's very easy to do and it's very very public and it's also good legitimate practice because let's face it russia is going to have a lot of wet gap crossings in ukraine if they choose to invade so you've got the denipa river you've got a lot of other smaller bodies of water that still require you know engineers to get across so it this is a good way to practice for that and like i mentioned earlier right when we started talking about this bridge there's more to the story as of this morning the bridge is gone we can tell this via sentinel imagery that was downloaded uh as of last night and the bridge has now been relocated so that's that i guess this whole exercise in talking about the bridge really isn't about the bridge it's really to show that even though the intel handbook indicates x some common sense is also required just like the us government and governments around the world were dead set on telling the world that russia is going to invade on the 16th of february and since it's now the 17th or 18th when this video goes out and no invasion occurred the us intel t russia is going to invade on the 16th of february and since it's now the 17th or 18th when this video goes out and no invasion occurred the us intel community looks foolish and speaking of that date a lot of people have been asking well how did the us government know with such certainty that russia had planned the invasion for the 16th and why would they say this openly well the reason for saying it openly is is a quasi-legitimate i suppose if you say hey if you have unrefuted undoubtable proof that russia is going to invade on the 16th and you tell the world this well obviously russia is not going to invade on the 16th they're going to not invade on the 16th because you've discovered their plans and now they have to change their plans or they were never planning on invading on the 16th and now you just look like a fool in any case we will never know what intelligence the us government had to indicate with such certainty that russia was going to invade on the 16th it's a win-win for both because now the biden regime gets to claim that ah we stopped them invading on the 16th and russia gets to claim well the us looks like fools because they said we were going to invade on the 16th at ah we stopped them invading on the 16th and russia gets to claim well the us looks like fools because they said we were going to invade on the 16th and we never invaded on the 16th so it's a win for both sides which is why you don't really hear too much about it based on my own speculation i think i know how they got that date if they didn't have any really concrete proof it's pretty easy to come up with the 16th as a date and this is just my own personal guess right so my guess is that they either had some kind of comment you know some kind of communications interception or some kind of document right some top secret document from the kremlin that indicated that date plus the 16th was during a green illumination cycle in other words the moon was very bright and therefore more conducive to nighttime airborne operations which is what russia would use right which as a side note is why we talk about this stuff because lunar illumination is important for things like this but it's not the only factor right and at the same time i can look at that assessment of the 16th and know that it was made by a junior analyst or somebody who doesn't know what they're doing in other words if i wer k at that assessment of the 16th and know that it was made by a junior analyst or somebody who doesn't know what they're doing in other words if i were back at the intel schoolhouse and i had a class of soon-to-be analysts in my classroom and i were to ask them to assess what date russia would choose to invade i would expect every one of them to say the 16th that's just what you come up with if you're a junior analyst that's the textbook answer and it's not it's not a wrong answer right if you're a junior analyst that's what i would expect and you use the intel cycle you process information and you come up with 16th as a date it's not textbook wrong it's just that if you know more about the situation you're not going to come up with that date unfortunately in today's intel community most analysts are incapable of giving anything other than the textbook answer either way this is all just a gut feeling on my part and i think i've beat this horse enough i just thought that this was a fascinating illustration of so many different ideas that it was worth sharing because this bridge has become more of a proverbial wooden horse than a wooden bridge it is a great example of analysis gone a at it was worth sharing because this bridge has become more of a proverbial wooden horse than a wooden bridge it is a great example of analysis gone awry and how it's good to think for yourself and really it's an allegory of the deception that's taking place everywhere with regards to ukraine right now when this bridge first became public it swept through the ocean community like wildfire as it should this is important stuff right wet gap crossings and pontoon bridges in this context are something that should grab one's attention but it shouldn't consume one's entire attention span we shouldn't be scurrying from event to event just like the russians and the american defense industry want us to we need to see the whole picture but we also shouldn't ignore the indicators of an invasion keeping calm and keeping a cool head is very hard to do especially when you have so many intel gaps there's so much that you don't know but it's still important to do the world isn't going to end because you waited a day to form an opinion on something and it's always better for analysts to be unconventional in their thinking and speaking of invasion potential and looking at the whole picture right the d it's always better for analysts to be unconventional in their thinking and speaking of invasion potential and looking at the whole picture right the team here found an interesting article that comes from a ukrainian think tank which outlines a few critical points that argue against the possibility of an invasion they think it's not likely with everyone arguing about the will they want they nature of the russians invading i wanted to offer at least one legitimate counterpoint to our opinion that the invasion is imminent right now opinions regarding russia invading are mostly coming from a perspective of american domestic politics a lot of people are rushing to fill the opposite space of whatever their political opponents are saying so the biden regime comes out and says russia is going to invade the people who are opposite to the biden administration come out and say russia is not going to invade they only want to have that opposition they don't want to actually look at the situation on the ground and the situation in the world they just want to be the opposite of whatever their enemies are and sometimes that doesn't make a whole lot of sense but if you shove america's domestic si just want to be the opposite of whatever their enemies are and sometimes that doesn't make a whole lot of sense but if you shove america's domestic situation and the military-industrial complex aside we can clearly see russia's actions as inflammatory this paper which i would encourage you to read the link of which will be in the description of course and on the sources slide for this uh goes into detail on why they think russia won't be invading in any significant way so rather than highlight their points for them i'll let you read through them on your own but i would like to address some of the ideas that they had first up is the potential for a large-scale combat operation or lsco also known as world war iii at least in this context right so is russia prepared to launch a large-scale combat operation i don't think so but like we mentioned in an earlier brief russia has left her own territory laughably vulnerable to pretty much anyone who wants to strike her all of the units that have been deployed by russia have been either meant for a conflict in ukraine or as a deterrence for nato in other words if russia was preparing for a knock down drag out fight they're doing it all wrong or a conflict in ukraine or as a deterrence for nato in other words if russia was preparing for a knock down drag out fight they're doing it all wrong because they haven't deployed nearly enough troops but is it enough to handle ukraine absolutely i think so i think russia's choice in style of warfare from everything from unit composition to their diplomacy is the perfect choice for going into combat for ukraine if i myself were planning an invasion of ukraine i would do exactly what russia has done so far now the other point that the paper makes is meant to address the follow-on question that people have right now people are asking okay russia is going to invade like that seems pretty clear at this point but how far will they go i like anyone else don't know the answer to that question but my guess is that russia probably will not go whole hog and launch a total invasion without any concerns for nato my guess is they won't do that but i also think that based on the units we've seen maneuvering they won't exactly go for a minor incursion either a byproduct of the world's eyes on ukraine right now is that russia will not be able to use their little green men or separatists at all th ion either a byproduct of the world's eyes on ukraine right now is that russia will not be able to use their little green men or separatists at all this time right with everyone all hyped up and watching this is going to reduce a big advantage that the russians love to use secrecy that might be enough to deter them or it might not what do i think they're going to do i think they're going to invade how far will they go i don't know what limitations will they place on themselves to keep tensions with nato as low as possible while still meeting their objectives in ukraine i don't know that either how long does russia plan for it to take to reach their objectives i don't know but based on their logistics or lack thereof probably not very long i think what would be interesting is for russia to do a sort of double bluff and pretend to draw back forces or just leave them forward deployed for a few months until nobody cares anymore and then use the slow approach like they did in 2014 when they were more or less able to operate in the shadows and the world didn't care that would be pretty slick it would make the us leadership look foolish for all their recent sky is falling rhetoric and it and the world didn't care that would be pretty slick it would make the us leadership look foolish for all their recent sky is falling rhetoric and it would leave russia in a better spot for an invasion later in the year of course i'll be the first one to admit that as an analyst one has a very strong urge to put caveats on things every analyst has an escape sentence in every assessment just so that in the event that they're wrong they don't look like a complete idiot and i'm not perfect i do that too i try not to do that so much because i think it's cheap and dirty and i think that analysts being afraid of being wrong is why the intel community sucks so bad and why bad analysts or yes men keep getting promoted but i would also have to argue that man if this all turns out to be a massive military deception campaign on russia's part they certainly fooled me and here's what they did to fool me russia deployed more people and equipment to their borders than have ever been deployed since world war ii and they spent millions of dollars and countless resources doing it they deployed most of their naval forces for no reason and moved vessels around the planet all the way from the arctic an countless resources doing it they deployed most of their naval forces for no reason and moved vessels around the planet all the way from the arctic and from the pacific just to fool us they established ford positions and hidden staging areas on their borders that we didn't know about letting us see where russia would deploy if an invasion were to occur for real in other words if russia did this this massive deployment just to test nato's responses and get nato to reveal their wartime tactics well nato certainly learned vastly more about russia than russia learned about nato these actions on russia's part are why i think russia is going to invade if we were to flip through the checklists of what russia would have to do to invade ukraine almost every box has been checked there are only a couple of criteria that haven't really been satisfactorily met and the weather isn't super great nor are their logistics thus the uncertainty but right now i would and am making decisions based off of russia invading ukraine and whatever effects that might have on us here at home in addition to being a vital look into what a modern large-scale war might look like we do not often get chances like this ght have on us here at home in addition to being a vital look into what a modern large-scale war might look like we do not often get chances like this to learn without experiencing casualties of our own and since ukraine is about to pay the price the least we can do is remember and learn the lessons that have been learned the hard way by others at this stage russia has a lot to lose if they don't invade there are a few things that russia gets out of this deployment so far like embarrassing nato and the knowledge that nato will back down in the face of russian aggression that's quite clear i think this was i think that was clear before this whole ukrainian situation launched i think it was clear in 2014 when the ukrainian conflict sort of kicked off in earnest but if russia doesn't invade look what she will have gotten she will have strengthened nato presence in eastern europe along a whole host of other things right we're talking new alliances forming more equipment flowing into ukraine and nato being more likely to accept ukraine into their memberships so regardless of whatever u.s politicians or defense industry executives are saying about this this is really it russia has a lot o their memberships so regardless of whatever u.s politicians or defense industry executives are saying about this this is really it russia has a lot to lose if they don't invade at this point they have a lot to lose and very very little to gain unless there is some other kind of secret objective that russia is trying to go for and i something that i don't understand right of course nobody's perfect and i might be a total idiot on this i might be missing something completely huge right but i just can't see at this point what russia would have to gain other than some very minor things if they don't invade and before we closed out for today i just wanted to remind everyone that there is a lot happening around the world in fact it's maddening to try to keep up with it all keeping an eye on what's going on in europe is important because it affects us here at home but so is keeping an eye on what's happening here in the us or with our brothers and sisters to the north so do not think that we are neglecting our own backyard at the expense of talking about ukraine because it's interesting we are certainly watching what's going on in canada as well because very few people are talking about f talking about ukraine because it's interesting we are certainly watching what's going on in canada as well because very few people are talking about what's going on in canada and the the implications that this has on our entire western civilization um and we're going to be talking a lot about that in the next brief as well the next non-ukraine brief so i just want to let everybody know we're watching this stuff and we're trying to figure out what this stuff means for all of us here at home as well so thanks again everyone thanks for your support and remember to not let this stuff stress you out too much it's pretty easy to be overwhelmed with a lot of the stuff that's going on these days so taking some time to unplug and unwind is just as important as being informed so thanks again and we will see you next time and as always fight in the shade