The Wire - December 6, 2023

//The Wire//1530Z December 6, 2023// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: VENEZUELA BEGINS PREPARATION FOR OPERATIONS WITHIN ESEQUIBO.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Europe: In Germany, the Ministry of the Interior for the state of Saxony-Anhalt has mandated that all naturalization candidates must declare their support for Israel as part of the naturalization process. Specifically, those seeking German citizenship in this region will be required to provide a written statement declaring their support for Israel. If this oath is not provided, this will lead to the denial of naturalization for those seeking German citizenship. AC: The documentation released so far indicates that candidates are not free to choose their own wording, as local authorities have been mandated to set the specific wording used in the oath sworn to Israel. South America: Venezuela demonstrates several indications and warnings of an impending invasion. Venezuela has declared the Esequibo region to be Venezuelan territory and has added the region to their official national map. Several officials have also declared that Venezuela will be creating a military zone in the region and issuing new ID cards to those living in remote villages throughout the area. Analyst Comments: In terms of a military invasion, the actions by Venezuela may not result in much news due to the remote nature of the terrain. Most of this region is uncharted territory; there are no major cities or major highways in this “disputed” area, with this region hosting some of the largest untouched jungle on the continent. As such, Venezuela can dominate the terrain by creating FOBs in critical areas, by which oil surveys can be protected. From these Centers of Gravity, Venezuelan troops can occupy the region, without exercising complete control over every inch of the terrain. This may be good enough for Venezuela’s oil-pursuing intentions, but this does present vulnerabilities that can be exploited by a much smaller force. However, this extremely remote terrain means that Venezuela’s actions can technically be described as an “invasion” or “occupation”, but will likely not take the form that many might think. Small groups of Venezuelan troops have already entered this area over the past few years, under the guise of combating illegal mining, so sporadic Venezuelan presence in the region is not unheard of. For more significant operations, Venezuela may place FOBs/firebases in the middle of the jungle and operate for weeks, with no opposition. What is likely to occur first is the establishment of Forward Arming and Refueling Points (FARPs) near the border, or just inside the Esequibo. This will be crucial to allow Venezuelan troops logistics hubs to refuel and stage operations for the construction of bases of operations within the region.