Ukraine War Update: War of Words

hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground this is the ukrainian war intel update for march 2nd 2022. let's get right to it much like last time i don't really have a whole lot for the geopolitical sphere even though a lot has happened uh there's really not a whole lot worth talking about or commenting on i did want to briefly mention something that i thought was interesting and that is in russia there are extremely unconfirmed reports that valeri grassimov was fired by putin yesterday but i think these rumors are untrue firing the chief of staff for the russian armed forces during an invasion is something that is not very likely to happen even if the invasion is going badly so far it sounds like these reports are the result of western leadership trying to cast doubt on russia's leadership and this is a trend that has continued over the past few days because we've heard constantly that russia is losing and that putin has gone insane or that there has been rioting and mutiny among russian forces in belgorod or that a military coup is brewing in russia from russia's invasion failures none of this is verifiable to any degree and all of this is probably false the only way ary coup is brewing in russia from russia's invasion failures none of this is verifiable to any degree and all of this is probably false the only way that i can think that putin would outright fire his version of the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff is if something so egregious occurred that it was worth losing face in the act of firing him and i highly doubt that that has occurred also in ukraine the evacuation issues have become more prevalent as more and more people try to egress to neighboring countries in the west but we'll talk more about that in a bit and in belarus things are heating up as well uh with belarus approving a referendum to give up their non-nuclear status so basically what this means is that belarus could be they they could be host to nuclear weapons in the future meaning that russia could deploy nuclear weapons to their terrain or belarus potentially could even get nuclear weapons of her own this is something that's pretty big when it comes to european politics but again this is just a direct result of russia and belarus trying to expand into the rest of europe any time that word nuclear gets turned around people tend to panic a little bit with this i wou a and belarus trying to expand into the rest of europe any time that word nuclear gets turned around people tend to panic a little bit with this i wouldn't necessarily view it as anything more significant i mean if you just look at geography and how nuclear weapons work it doesn't really matter if there's a nuclear weapon in belarus or not because a nuclear weapon in belarus versus being launched from smolensk or briansk or something like that that doesn't really matter too much when it comes to that sort of thing but this is definitely a political play which we will talk about in just a bit before we go on i briefly wanted to mention a major warfare tactic that is being used in the information war right now by all sides and all players and that concept is called gaslighting those of you who have been downloading our slides should recognize this from several days ago but i've only found it prudent to verbally talk about right now for instance i pulled all of these graphics from various domestic abuse websites because that's how most people are aware of this psychological warfare tactic if you take a moment to read these graphics you might notice a lot of familiarity between these g eople are aware of this psychological warfare tactic if you take a moment to read these graphics you might notice a lot of familiarity between these gaslighting tactics and pretty much everything that's been said by various political and social groups around the world over the past few years without getting too much into the weeds we are seeing gaslighting and other similar psychological tactics being the primary weapons of very powerful people around the world and this is becoming a significant problem for the ukrainian war causing someone to doubt their own sanity and reality is certainly where we are at with regards to most of the events that are being talked about in the world today of course a false tweet is not comparable at all to a grodd strike but those of us who are located outside of the combat zone and are trying to help people in the combat zone the information war becomes the primary fight for us and this is where we come to a standstill ourselves because right now the misinformation that is out there is so thick that it's not possible to know what's going on with any reliability for the most part the theme for this brief is that there's a lot happening but almost non 's not possible to know what's going on with any reliability for the most part the theme for this brief is that there's a lot happening but almost none of it is verifiable due to the blatant lies that are being told by all sides i go out of the way to make this distinction now because understanding this concept is an important lens with which to view what i'm about to say when we get to each front line moving to the overall operating picture much like last time the situation on the ground with regards to front line locations has become more ambiguous plus we also have to remember that russia is conducting this invasion mostly along surface roads it's not like uh when we think of a normal front lines of troops advancing across the countryside there isn't a whole lot of cross-country travel being used by the russians except for tactically uh in various uh situations where they need to maneuver off of a a hardpacked road right so for the most part it's not really it's not really doing justice to the invasion to kind of put lines on the map but it's kind of the best way to visualize it so we're still going to keep doing that but in any case forces to the north northeast and east have o ap but it's kind of the best way to visualize it so we're still going to keep doing that but in any case forces to the north northeast and east have observably slowed down the pace of their advance this is mostly in the north as russian forces build up for the fight for kiev the southern front continues to be the front where most advances have occurred although much like the rest of the fronts the pace has slowed down over the past three days there have been reports slash rumors of the russian ministry of defense calling up reinforcements by way of more conscripts and there is some evidence to support this but it is difficult to determine what fronts are the priority for any reinforcements that arrive in theater or move forward into ukraine from forward operating bases along the russian and belarusian border in other words we don't know if russia is calling up troops from all over the country like they did for this initial initial invasion or if they're just moving guys they had pre-staged along the border this whole time so it's really unclear really hard to say which units are moving where so at this point our graphics showing each unit is very inaccurate speaking of belarus luka ly unclear really hard to say which units are moving where so at this point our graphics showing each unit is very inaccurate speaking of belarus lukashenko has been more vocal than usual lately and very strongly indicating that belarus will be joining this conflict soon and it looks like belarusian forces have already joined the fight in certain areas and probably were part of the initial invasion as well belarus doesn't have a super large military but lukashenko clearly wants a piece of this action and since the only reason that he hasn't been mussolini in the streets is because putin is propping him up lukashenko's entire existence is dedicated to currying favor with putin so we will see belarus join this fight the question that remains unanswered is how much they will bring to the table as far as iff markers nothing really major new there have been a few new symbols or letters but it's really hard to tell if they're actually a new letter or if it's an older letter that's either due to combat damage kind of disfigured or if somebody painted it wrong or something that's really hard to tell but this is really what we were still sticking with as far as iff markers on the northeaste y painted it wrong or something that's really hard to tell but this is really what we were still sticking with as far as iff markers on the northeastern front we continue to see russian forces make very small limited advances and there appears to be a split in various uh forces and what i mean by that is forces that are west of kharkiv appear to be dedicated for the fight for kiev they were supposed to go further into the countryside but it looks like russia has determined that kiev is going to be a big fight which it is and they are pushing forces that probably were dedicated for other locations to kiev now forces that are taking kharkiv those forces are going to take that city as well again kharkiv is ukraine's second largest city so it's not a small town by any means so there's going to be a lot of forces dedicated for that also we're seeing that tactic of russia basically encircling or and or bypassing cities occurring as well the town of sumi has been taken and retaken it's changed changed hands a few times but again then we fall into the definition of or fall into the tactic of trying to define what taking a village actually means does it mean driving through it do you mean d into the definition of or fall into the tactic of trying to define what taking a village actually means does it mean driving through it do you mean does that mean you took the village you know it's really hard to say so really what we're seeing is russia trying to tie down forces in some of these smaller cities like konatov and sumi and then larger forces bypassing these cities to head for their primary primary objectives which in this case are kiev and kharkiv we're even seeing forces starting to bypass kharkiv and head further to the south and east as they try to conduct a pincer operation from kharkiv all the way down to just off the slide to the eastern front and lugansk regions so we'll move down there now on the eastern front it's become clear to us that two major lines of effort have emerged one which is a sort of pincer movement or really just an advance on two different fronts two opposing fronts for the city of maripo forces in the occupied territories are trying to push to the west to cut off marple to the north and try to link up with the forces that have advanced from the south from crimea around the city uh to to pincer around it and cut off the city further moropole link up with the forces that have advanced from the south from crimea around the city uh to to pincer around it and cut off the city further moropole for all intents and purposes is more or less cut off right now from the outside world although there are pockets right it's not like there's an imaginary line stretched around the city right so breakout operations are certainly still possible for any ukrainian forces that wish to egress further back into ukraine's territory but it's unclear as to what ukraine's motives are for mario paul it looks like they're going to be trying to take that city or hold that city rather for the foreseeable future moving down south there appear to be three main lines of effort with one like i mentioned being dedicated to supporting marupul from the west another one appears to be piercing to the north most likely along the nipah river north to japanese and an additional unit that's pushing to the west uh to take the city of kerrson uh as of a few hours ago we've got the notification that kirsan has been taken or at least their mayor says so uh so ukrainians are admitting that uh russian units have taken kerosene and are actually trying to set up admini aken or at least their mayor says so uh so ukrainians are admitting that uh russian units have taken kerosene and are actually trying to set up administrative areas uh already in the city further attempts to push west across the deneber are really hard to say right now most likely odessa will be assaulted with an amphibious assault very very soon if it hasn't occurred already by the time this video gets out because odessa is a major is a major port town and that's going to be a very critical avenue for things like trade and it's just a very populated city right so it's going to be a major target for the russian advance moving to the western front the front which is really the forgotten front because not really much has occurred here still continues to give us some information and that is this time to do with alexander lukashenko so yesterday belarusian dictator alexander lokashenko held a televised meeting with his security council to discuss the situation in ukraine what caught many people's eye was the map that he was standing in front of which showed a few interesting things so let's enhance if we enhance the image a bit we can clearly see that someone is planning an attack on m ont of which showed a few interesting things so let's enhance if we enhance the image a bit we can clearly see that someone is planning an attack on moldova maybe again this could all be a deliberate mistake that is made to make us think that russia and belarus are going to invade moldova specifically transnistria next this map also shows ukraine being broken up into four administrative areas again hinting at the goal of a total eradication of the ukrainian state if this is genuinely russia's plan then the situation is far worse than we thought and russia's goals are far more ambitious than we thought but i myself am withholding judgment on this for now attacking transnistria would be a really really big deal even if it is a breakaway republic russian puppet state that would prove without a doubt that russia's intentions do not lie only within ukraine the other interesting part of this map is that it is slightly out of date and based on the lines of advance we can clearly see that things are not going as planned for the russians so many forces have had to change their plans and as we can now see the mad dash for kiev has begun so rather than following this map's scheme of advance e ny forces have had to change their plans and as we can now see the mad dash for kiev has begun so rather than following this map's scheme of advance every unit along the northern and northeastern front is headed for kiev but again this might be all a trick who knows russia has been known to genuinely accidentally leak very sensitive top secret information to the press such as the stuff that came out a few years ago about the canyon nuclear torpedo project and other gucci directorate stuff ordinarily it's a pretty bold move to show a map of your invasion on live tv but lukashenko is a pretty bold guy so it would make sense for him to show this map and boast about his military goals and if this is a deception operation i can't imagine what goal that deception operation would have it seems like there wouldn't be much to gain by leaking this intentionally as always we will have to wait and see if these lines of effort materialize and more importantly keep a closer eye on the situation in moldova on the northeastern front russian troops have begun stacking up for the assault on kiev which should be getting underway in earnest right about now but the russian advance has slowed to a crawl ve begun stacking up for the assault on kiev which should be getting underway in earnest right about now but the russian advance has slowed to a crawl so much so that i would go as far as to say the advance to kiev has stalled at least temporarily as russia continues to stage troops russia has dedicated a lot of forces for the battle of kiev and those forces have been observed in what is now called the 40-mile convoy a vehicle stretching along the main highway south into kiev but we will talk about this in a moment let's zoom in a little closer in kiev various local tv towers have been struck resulting in television broadcast outages throughout the area this is something that again we should have expected honestly on the first day of this conflict it should also be noted that russia has announced that civilians who want to leave kiev kharkiv and other cities will not be harmed for trying to leave and at this stage we here have no reason to doubt that this policy will be honored uh russia may have indiscriminately targeted civilians passively with artillery and airstrikes but for the most part russian ground forces have not been targeting civilians and mass however seeing as the ukr ssively with artillery and airstrikes but for the most part russian ground forces have not been targeting civilians and mass however seeing as the ukrainian resistance will be heavily concentrated in cities russia will also begin to conduct strikes in these locations as well artillery strikes have already been conducted in some parts of kiev and we expect that to continue and increase in severity over the coming days as russian troops begin to enter the city it's unlikely that russian forces will attempt to level the city it's more alike they'll probably be going for just pockets of resistance or military things military targets within the city but again russia's complete and utter lack of concern for collateral damage means that there's going to be a lot of damage throughout kiev over the coming days and that kind of leads us to something that we have been observing and thinking about this invasion since it began and that is the question of why is russia performing so poorly in this fight and for the entire western world who is fervently taking notes on this war this question keeps coming up as well why has russia not had a single notable action during this entire conflict yeah su ntly taking notes on this war this question keeps coming up as well why has russia not had a single notable action during this entire conflict yeah sure russia is still invading and they're not losing and they're still moving forward and making progress but it's almost like every goal they have achieved has been almost on accident there has been fierce fighting in places like kharkiv journey of chernobyl luhansk maripol and places like that and russia has won battles in these areas but it does not appear that russia has achieved a clear decisive total victory anywhere every battle they have fought has cost them dearly even in the skies russia doesn't maintain dominance every first lieutenant at every army unit that has ever existed wrote a term paper at some point detailing the importance of aerial superiority during an invasion and even people who have no understanding of warfare doctrine can see that russia should have achieved total and complete aerial superiority over the entire country of ukraine within the first few minutes of the invasion but they weren't able to do that and even three days after the invasion began they had two il-76s get shot down and then there's the 40-mi he invasion but they weren't able to do that and even three days after the invasion began they had two il-76s get shot down and then there's the 40-mile convoy headed to kiev let me tell you every single military service member who has ever driven a vehicle can look at that satellite imagery and cringe that is without a doubt the fattest target for an ambush that i have ever seen in my entire life remember these guys are not stacked up like this inside their own country no they are miles behind enemy lines in a country which has an active insurgency against them and this comes after some of their comrades down south got decimated by a ukrainian drone strike in this exact situation so all of these thoughts are not to push the western propaganda that russia is losing or demoralized we have no way to know that this is just a genuine observation that at this point is worth talking about anybody who has studied warfare for five minutes can plainly see that russia is making a lot of mistakes mistakes that are so serious that it makes you wonder if there's something here we don't know and that is certainly the case we're just spectating this like everyone else however one mistake that we nder if there's something here we don't know and that is certainly the case we're just spectating this like everyone else however one mistake that we see being made on the part of western military strategists is that they are grading russia's actions using a western textbook russia's style of warfare is different from ours and there are a lot of things that people tend to forget like vehicle spacing we here in the us are hypersensitive to that due to several decades of fighting insurgencies russia's last insurgency-ish fight was in georgia in 2008 and that wasn't a great learning exercise for russia with regards to counter-insurgency because they overwhelmingly won that conflict in just a few days but even going back to the chechen war russia has not had the same experience that the united states has and russia's military is certainly not an expeditionary one russia's reliance on rail to move the majority of her logistics and the doctrine of not really stressing truck-based transport at lower and lower echelon levels might be the main reason that russia is having logistical problems right now and the logistical stresses of pre-invasion training exercises is something to think about reason that russia is having logistical problems right now and the logistical stresses of pre-invasion training exercises is something to think about too remember these troops were on the border of ukraine for a couple weeks and just keeping a hundred and seventy-five thousand troops fed and warm in the field had to have been a logistical nightmare and that was before the invasion even began and we know that these logistical woes did exist because we saw a lot of soldiers being sent forward uh to staging areas along the border without winter gear or with sparse food supplies for the aviation threat another way to look at why we haven't really seen the skies full of russian aircraft is that they know the man pad threat is real what's the point of sending in your brand new shiny fighter jets or massive waves of ground attack aircraft against an enemy that's extremely dispersed dug in and with a single dude with a shoulder launched missile on every apartment rooftop even though russia has the capability to send in hundreds of aircraft every hour if they aren't willing to get a lot of them shot down in the process do they really have that capability same with the armored divisions we' very hour if they aren't willing to get a lot of them shot down in the process do they really have that capability same with the armored divisions we've seen rolling around we think of russia's actions in terms of total numbers and not the numbers that are actually being observed in practice sure we might see a column of vehicles in armor that is over 40 miles long with hundreds and hundreds of armored vehicles stretching out to take kiev but here's the thing at the very front of that column you're not fighting all 40 miles of it you're fighting just the first few vehicles again the warfare doctrine that armies around the world learn the hard way over time is that this sure-fire way to whittle down an overwhelming force is to take them on one at a time this concept goes all the way back to the gates of thermopylae and the story of the 300 spartans canalizing terrain even self-imposed canalizing terrain in the form of sticking to roads for ease of navigation is something that the russians don't appear to be too concerned with and with a civilian populace in full-on guerrilla warfare mode this is a decision that russia will regret later a lot of people are split along the following l a civilian populace in full-on guerrilla warfare mode this is a decision that russia will regret later a lot of people are split along the following lines those that think that russia is intentionally holding back for some reason and actually does have the capability to fight better and those that think that the russian military is old and busted and doesn't actually have the capabilities that they claim they do going back to a cold war mentality that russia's power comes from the perception of her power in either case if russia is voluntarily or involuntarily not as effective as they should be the effect is the same they're not as effective as they should be whether they can't or they can but won't isn't super relevant to the 19 year old bmp driver outside of kiev or to the civilian defending their home i don't think that any one of these thoughts is the complete explanation for why russia doesn't seem to be doing as well as we might have guessed they would or why russia seems to be making a lot of poor decisions but maybe these random thoughts provide a different perspective or a different way of thinking about the russian military in general in any case russia is writing a lot o om thoughts provide a different perspective or a different way of thinking about the russian military in general in any case russia is writing a lot of doctrine right now and they are writing it the hard way the same way the u.s wrote ours by gaining experience and maybe the biggest lesson that russia has learned from this conflict is that kiev is not tbilisi and ukraine is not georgia russia may start learning these lessons and if they are fully committed to taking kiev they might just win this war though win would be definitely too strong of a word whatever happens this will not be a total victory for russia russia's actions on the international stage have embarrassed herself even taking aside the obvious western propaganda and meaningless sanctions russia is supposed to be a superpower that should have taken ukraine on the first day much like the u.s and her overseas ambitions in the past expeditionary military operations to a country where the local populace doesn't want you there is a lot harder than it looks on the civilian front not too much to report other than the increasing tensions along evacuation routes to the west traffic is still atrociously bad along with the rail t t not too much to report other than the increasing tensions along evacuation routes to the west traffic is still atrociously bad along with the rail transport to the west trains are still running as far as we know and lots of people are cramming as many people as they can onto trains to get them to the west out of these areas but it's really hard to say when or where services might stop likewise with traffic there's really no good way to to show people how to get around it because every road is jammed heading to the west we aren't seeing too many problems or too many issues popping up although tensions are really high along the obviously the border zones there have been a few fights breaking out here and there along the border at various immigration controls and things like that um so it's really hard to to say exactly what's going on i wouldn't say that it's complete and total pandemonium no it's it's not like an all-out panic you know like a mad bat a mad dash to the border but there is there is tension there and uh the tensions are increasing and um it's just not really a super pleasant time right now so uh if we get any more information regarding the civilian front and how that increasing and um it's just not really a super pleasant time right now so uh if we get any more information regarding the civilian front and how that's going to affect the civilian populace in the occupied territories we'll let you know before we close the day i wanted to mention just a few thoughts because there's a lot of there's a lot of ideological thoughts out there these days and it's really clear that a lot of the sources that are talking about ukraine are talking about in a certain way and like i mentioned in the beginning the situation for us has become a lot more complex and a lot more irritating when it comes to the information that is available to us about this war the information that we can use to make decisions about our own lives uh what i find myself doing really at this stage is just making observations and then taking steps to reduce my own personal vulnerabilities and increase my own capabilities those of you who have been listening to our stuff for a while you know that we're all about that we're all about reducing personal vulnerabilities and increasing capabilities no matter what the situation is right so rather than get bogged down in the ideological fighti ng personal vulnerabilities and increasing capabilities no matter what the situation is right so rather than get bogged down in the ideological fighting over what belief is better or what piece of information is better or worse i find that it's a lot less stressful and a lot more productive to think about certain events and then the potential impacts like right now the reason that we're even talking about ukraine is that we generally don't think it's a super great idea for one nation to invade another especially in europe especially for the reasons that russia is claiming to have invaded for but i also don't want to engage in situations that might increase the risk of going to war with another superpower that internal conflict that debate over what opinion to have is not very useful to kind of flesh out in my mind plus i mean the world is such a different place today i mean remember how for two years now we've had that magical c word on our minds for the past two years barely an hour has gone by without us thinking about the virus for a lot of people that became their identity nothing more important than that however they felt about it and now the same thing is happening right now a lot of people that became their identity nothing more important than that however they felt about it and now the same thing is happening right now with ukraine a lot of people do not go five minutes without talking about or consuming the ukrainian war for political or social reasons so we want to avoid that and taking a step back reassessing what's actually going on and prioritizing what lessons to learn is sometimes necessary this isn't going to be the last event like this and we're looking into the future be it another invasion or some other worldwide polarizing event we've got to get in the right mindset for the next decade so that's all we've got for now i just wanted to briefly touch on how keeping the right mindset is important moving forward and as we move forward into this conflict we have to remember that information is going to be few and far between when the fighting for kiev begins in earnest there will be very little that we or anyone else can do for us our own goals are largely complete we chronicled the lead up to the invasion and the initial invasion itself our goals were to help provide enough information for people to make the decision to stay or leave ukraine e invasion and the initial invasion itself our goals were to help provide enough information for people to make the decision to stay or leave ukraine and what avenues of approach to take to do so so in that regard our work is mostly done there seem to be very few people left in ukraine that have not either made the decision to stay or go what we will try to do moving forward is to provide our thoughts and lessons learned so as our information about the situation on the ground becomes more and more ambiguous we can still at least learn some lessons that will be helpful in making decisions in the future so we're not going anywhere but we also don't want to waste anyone's time if we don't have anything meaningful to add so thanks again everyone thank you for your support and we will see you next time and as always fight in the shade