Intel Update - March 29 - Strategic Movement

Hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground. This is the intel update for March 23rd through the 29th, 2025. As the title indicates, today I'm going to spend most of the time talking about some issues around the globe that are going to be of strategic concern, indications and warnings of impending conflicts and so on. So let's start off with the slide that I hope will not get very much use, which is essentially a World War II tracker. Staying at the very wave top level, let's briefly touch on some of the issues that have come to light over the past week. First of all, in North America, the trade disputes have continued between the United States, Canada, and Mexico, largely without very much notice. There have been some developments over the past week or so, just tit for tat things back and forth between the United States and Canada. A lot of rhetoric, a lot of shouting back and forth, but nothing really uh to sink our teeth into with regards to how this might affect the economy. Once again, we know that the economic situation globally is really just kind of in shambles at the moment and kind of hanging by a thread in many regards. So, it's hard to tell if a diplomatic tion globally is really just kind of in shambles at the moment and kind of hanging by a thread in many regards. So, it's hard to tell if a diplomatic spat between the United States and Canada or between the US and Mexico is is actually resulting or translating into higher prices at the grocery store. There are just too many things going on with the economy that could be contributing to high prices or low prices or low availability or logistics issues. It's just too hard to to nail down to one specific data point. This week, the White House has also increased the rhetoric with regards to Greenland, making it very, very likely that the United States will obtain Greenland in some form or fashion. Of course, many Greenlanders are quite upset about this uh because they may end up paying higher taxes than they already do and other reasons as well. Greenland is a very complicated diplomatic zone. It's not really an independent nation. Technically, it's legally counted as a county in Denmark and it is uh treated as such. However, the Kingdom of Denmark has really given a lot of autonomy to Greenland, but not autonomy with regards to things like diplomatic relations. So, for instance, the G of Denmark has really given a lot of autonomy to Greenland, but not autonomy with regards to things like diplomatic relations. So, for instance, the Greenlanders can't get together and make a treaty with another nation. That's going to be kind of like an international thing. So, really, Greenland has just kind of been left to their own devices. However, some of the rhetoric from Danish politicians has really taken a very interesting turn uh in that a lot of Danish politicians have brought up the the essential fact that the United States more or less already does own Greenland. We have freedom of maneuver there. We can do whatever we want to in Greenland. They've already granted permission going way back to the 50s in the Cold War, right? So, just shooting from the hip, it seems like a lot of the Danish politicians are taking the perspective of so what I mean, you guys already own it. Like, what do you what more do you want? Clearly, the United States wants a little bit more formalization of of Greenland, either becoming a state or a protectorate or a territory in some way, probably to increase things like missile defense. I mean, we already do that. We already have a sub substantia rotectorate or a territory in some way, probably to increase things like missile defense. I mean, we already do that. We already have a sub substantial Arctic presence in Greenland, but it seems like we're we're trying to formalize that a little bit more with regards to the diplomatic status of that. So, this will be interesting to see as time goes on. But again, in the context of a large superpower annexing a historic territory that they've had influence over for a long period of time. This is a little bit ironic in in the grand scheme of things as we can see uh moving forward. Moving over to the United Kingdom, our friends across the pond have had a a bit of a rough week uh with regards to both domestic and international issues. Domestically, the United Kingdom is facing a formalization of their two-tier legal system to allow minorities and other protected classes of citizen to have formally lighter sentences. So a judgment was was passed by or or a policy was passed by the sentencing council of the United Kingdom to formalize lighter sentences for certain protected classes of citizen mostly uh along racial demographics. So this has obviously been a very very hot button issue ove er sentences for certain protected classes of citizen mostly uh along racial demographics. So this has obviously been a very very hot button issue over the past few years really or even decades if you if you want to go back that far. But recently this has become a very palpably difficult topic for the United Kingdom over the past few weeks. So hopefully they will get things ironed out, but it's not looking good for the formalization of a two-tier justice system in the United Kingdom. Internationally, the United Kingdom is still pressing the uh deployment of British soldiers to Ukraine uh for some reason. This is a personal initiative of Kier Starmer, the prime minister. However, there are a lot of citizens who do support this idea. A lot obviously do not, but a lot still do. So online, it's kind of hard to determine how popular of an idea this is. I can't imagine it being very popular among citizens, especially considering how the war has gone so far and we are kind of at the 11th hour at this point with the war in Ukraine. But we shall see how it goes. Hopefully, this is not something that is going to actually come to fruition, but it may. I I don't actually know. Of course, most ll see how it goes. Hopefully, this is not something that is going to actually come to fruition, but it may. I I don't actually know. Of course, most nations in NATO have sent troops to Ukraine in some form or fashion, either as quote unquote advisers or special forces or things like that. But in terms of deploying an actual conventional army in any force uh not in a training role but to fight that is a lot different of a story. So we will have to see how that works out but hopefully it's just rhetoric at the moment. Speaking of Ukraine uh situation in Ukraine has not gotten any better. It some may say it's gotten worse uh with regards to a diplomatic situation. However, like I pointed out in the wire, a lot of positions are becoming a little bit more clear. So many people can say that's probably a good thing for all the world leaders to involve to kind of you know cut the nicities and let's just get right to the meat of the matter. That seems to be where uh Vladimir Putin is at especially at the moment. So Putin has made it very clear that he wants regime change. He's not going to be making a deal with Ukraine in any form or fashion as long as Zalinsky has a future uh as Ukraine's r that he wants regime change. He's not going to be making a deal with Ukraine in any form or fashion as long as Zalinsky has a future uh as Ukraine's leader. Of course for many people who are on the pro- Ukraine side of things, they're going to say, "Well, of course he's going to say that. Of course he wants Zinsky gone." However, Zalinski and Ukraine, as as shocking and challenging as it may be to hear for some, uh Ukraine does not really have a say in in their future at this point, this is most certainly a conflict between the United States and Russia. And negotiations are going to be conducted between the United States and Russia without very much input from Ukraine. So, it's really all up to whether the United States wants to keep Zalinsky on board uh and protect him for a bit of time or if they want to horse trade around a little bit and see what they can get from Russia because it really as as bad as it sounds, Ukraine really doesn't have a say in any of this. So, this is uh all on what the United States will see fit and I guess we'll have to see what the United States says because um Russia has made their position quite clear at the moment and uh we'll see how close we can s we'll have to see what the United States says because um Russia has made their position quite clear at the moment and uh we'll see how close we can get to some kind of deal over the next couple of weeks. Moving down to Africa, I wanted to touch on the conflict in the Congo. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, there's kind of a civil war going on there now. I think we can safely call it a civil war. And really, it's not going super well. So, uh, the leadership of the Congo, I'm not sure if you could call them democratically elected or not, but the leadership of the Congo, the formalized government of the Congo, has essentially just kind of cut all pretenses and invited the United States to come in and eliminate the M23 rebels. In exchange, the United States gets to keep all the minerals in the Congo or some sort of mineral deal. So, at least that's a little bit of a refreshing change of place. Purely a mercenary style uh conflict. I very strongly doubt the United States will take up the Congo on on that. Nobody really has the appetite to go into subsaharan Africa at this point, but I found it kind of interesting that warlords and democratically elected warlords are really just kind of go into subsaharan Africa at this point, but I found it kind of interesting that warlords and democratically elected warlords are really just kind of openly vying for power at this moment and not really going with any pretenses for what they're trying to do. So at least that's kind of interesting. Moving over to the Middle East and the South China Sea, there are a significant amount of developments going on, which I will touch on in just a moment. But essentially, the United States is staging an awful lot of resources throughout various bases in the Middle East, most notably at the very infamous CIA black site at Diego Garcia and also at the more well-known base Aluded in Qatar. So, we'll get into that in a moment. And also in the Far East, the Chinese naval activity has been increasing with regards to Taiwan. They're conducting a lot of drills, a lot of flyovers, a lot of maritime exercises, things like that. So, something to keep an eye on. Not a whole lot of uh indicators for an imminent invasion of Taiwan, but China is most definitely uh interested in that for sure. And they are making moves uh to continually prepare for that as they have been doing for well over a decade now. itely uh interested in that for sure. And they are making moves uh to continually prepare for that as they have been doing for well over a decade now. So, that's really the global situation at the moment. Let's get into it a little bit more specifically and let's start by taking a look at a few data points that I have been updating throughout the week. The more astute of you may have noticed that I uh throughout the week have been updating the various Tesla vandalism or incident attack sites on the SIPOP map, the ArcGIS map project that I'm working on. I know it seems rather underwhelming. Uh however, these are the Tesla vandalism incidents that have occurred that I have been able to find and geollocate with pretty good accuracy. I think over the past couple of months, I didn't go back uh to 2024. This is really just this year, so January until essentially now. Most of these it's very hard to geollocate because when someone posts a video of their Tesla being keyed or set on fire or something, most of the time people do not uh actually post where it is. So I have to spend a few hours trying to geollocate where a lot of these attacks are taking place. So, so just as a reminder, gener post where it is. So I have to spend a few hours trying to geollocate where a lot of these attacks are taking place. So, so just as a reminder, generally speaking, when it comes to the world of, you know, open- source intelligence, really, it's it's going to be very very hard. It makes it makes it very hard when people post a video and say, "Look at this. This is outrageous." And then they don't tell me where it is. Uh it would be very very helpful if there was a street address or something because most of the time they're just posting like, "Oh, okay. Well, there was a Tesla that got keyed in Kansas City." And then I have to go and find where it took place. So, it's hard to find a lot of these sites, but uh I will continue updating this tracker. Really uh I I don't want to uh over focus on this too much because really this is more along the lines of a low inensity conflict kind of thing. However, this is a way for me to kind of demonstrate some of the uh tools that I have and more importantly build templates for myself for later. So, so please don't think that uh I think this is a a hugely World War II level concern for me. No, no, no. It's it's certainly not. Um it's it is a con , so please don't think that uh I think this is a a hugely World War II level concern for me. No, no, no. It's it's certainly not. Um it's it is a concern. Obviously, vandalism incidents are a specific kind of low-intensity conflict that I think will personally continue on in the future. But right now, this is really just an exercise for me to uh document some of these things because it's an easy data point to analyze and feed in uh to a create layers on my own and then push those to the web map. So, when it comes to the main battle tracking map, the main SIP cup map, uh I will keep the I will keep this data flowing and try to document this as best I can because as far as I know, there isn't one central repository for for all of this data, but you can download it as an Excel spreadsheet. I think I'll have to double check that from from the website, but oh, and also I forgot to mention, so when you click on each one of these pucks on the map, you can click each one of these icons and uh see a clickable link for the source. It may not work on your phone. I mean, it should work on phones, but it maybe a little bit easier on a desktop browser or something like that. So, this is just ki ork on your phone. I mean, it should work on phones, but it maybe a little bit easier on a desktop browser or something like that. So, this is just kind of again a reminder of some of the more data intense things that I'm working on. Again, I'm not really sure how helpful it is for everyone, but getting the the workflow down pat on my end is is a little bit more helpful for me. Uh, and I think it may it may bear fruit in due time. Same thing with the dashboard. Uh, when it comes to this specific data set, like, you know, Tesla attacks by day and type, I can actually graph that. So again, I'm I'm really not sure if this is helpful or useful for anybody. It's probably going to appeal to not that many people, but uh that's okay. But for the dashboard product that I have, as we can see, I can put charts in there uh and move things around and change things up. This may change by the time the video comes out, but as we can see, the very rudimentary uh primitive chart that I can bring into the map to analyze these data points. It makes it a little easier to see that attacks are increasing. these vandalism attacks and incidents are uh becoming a lot more frequent and a lot more each day wh little easier to see that attacks are increasing. these vandalism attacks and incidents are uh becoming a lot more frequent and a lot more each day when they do happen. So, but yeah, a little bit more helpful than just looking at a raw map. If we can actually take these data points and put them into a chart, this helps sort of build the story uh that we're trying to tell here. So, I have many many many more data layers uh that I'm working on right now that I have not published and pushed to the map yet. I hope to have a lot of that finished by this uh next week, but who knows? So you guys know um working with any kind of GIS system, it takes a very very long time to get anything done. But I will continue pushing on for those that uh find this stuff helpful. So moving over to Western Europe, I wanted to mention two incidents this week. Again, the terror attacks have continued. Unfortunately, it's already becoming a very hot year for that sort of thing. In Germany, there was a a sort of questionable event uh which is is it's not entirely certain if this was a terror attack or if this was more along the lines of just a a murder uh situation. The mainstream media is reporting that esse y certain if this was a terror attack or if this was more along the lines of just a a murder uh situation. The mainstream media is reporting that essentially a teenager was approaching a a vehicle checkpoint. Didn't have a license, was kind of joy riding around and he panicked and tried to turn around before he got to the checkpoint. Ended up ramming into a crowd of people. I'm not entirely certain if you would classify that as a traditional terrorism attack or if this was just a careless uh not really caring about anyone uh else around him kind of thing. Of course, in either situation, the driver took deliberate actions to harm people. However, it's the circumstances and context behind that are still up for debate. Of course, Germany uh really does try to take care of their criminals. So, it's really hard to find any sort of data on any criminal after any attack occurs. You're you're really lucky to get what you get. So, I don't expect to get any more details on this one, but I will definitely keep an eye out. Similar situation in the Netherlands where there was a mass stabbing. This was uh most certainly a more deliberate terror attack. There were five people stabbed in Dam Squar e Netherlands where there was a mass stabbing. This was uh most certainly a more deliberate terror attack. There were five people stabbed in Dam Square in Amsterdam a couple of days ago. Once again, the Dutch really like to uh cover up the identity of the attacker, so we're probably not going to get a name or any status for a while. However, there are rumors circulating, and I want to stress these are rumors, but there are rumors circulating that the asalent was a Ukrainian refugee. We do have pictures of the guy. We have video of uh bystanders taking the guy down and detaining him at the scene. However, you I mean, you can't really tell uh from any of the stuff that that I've seen so far. But anyway, we'll have to see how this develops, but I don't really have high hopes for any kind of information to come out from this either. Now, moving over to the Indian Ocean, uh as many of you have kind of noted over the past week or so, there have been substantial strategic indications and warnings of a major impending military conflict. Now, I do not say that lightly by any means, but there have been up to nine B2 Spirit strategic bombers stationed at Diego Garcia. And as we can see from t I do not say that lightly by any means, but there have been up to nine B2 Spirit strategic bombers stationed at Diego Garcia. And as we can see from this exceptionally blurry and cloudy image, this is sentinel imagery from March 28th. So, we got really lucky and got a good uh well, not good, but a better than nothing Sentinel imagery. This is open source satellite imagery that can be downloaded by the general public. These are just screenshots from their website and we can actually manipulate the image on the website itself. So, uh, we can take a look at the false color. And if we take that screenshot and manipulate it just a little bit using very rudimentary tools, we can increase the contrast and increase the saturation. And we can see that there are possibly at least five for sure, but possibly six B2 Spirit bombers parked on the south parking apron at the uh, airfield on Diego Garcia. So, what does this mean? What's the bottom line here? Well, very generally speaking, uh, for deployments of bombers usually mean we're going to bomb something. And B2 spirits because they are stealth bombers. These are could also be B-21 raiders. It's hard to tell. You can't really determine the d something. And B2 spirits because they are stealth bombers. These are could also be B-21 raiders. It's hard to tell. You can't really determine the difference in this imagery. Uh, however, generally speaking, deploying these types of assets, stealth bombers instead of B-52s, stealth bombers being deployed to Diego Garcia is a major indicator, a very significant indication and warning of a war with a nearpeer asset. So, what does this mean? Well, really what I'm trying to say is if we narrow down the potential adversaries in this region that uh B2 spirits would be used for, what I'm trying to say is that we don't necessarily need stealth bombers to be dropping bombs in Yemen. We've been doing pretty good so far without uh any kind of stealth assets, but we probably would need stealth bombers to drop bombs in Iran. So, the bottom line is that this could very well be, again, indications and warnings. It's not proof, but this could very well be staging for an impending war with Iran. Once again, I do not see that lightly. I do not want to panic anyone too much, but I'm just giving you the straight dope here. And this is uh something we would see if we're going to go to war with Iran. o panic anyone too much, but I'm just giving you the straight dope here. And this is uh something we would see if we're going to go to war with Iran. A lot of people have mentioned maybe China as well. Uh I would disagree. Uh generally speaking, we would not be deploying assets to Diego Garcia specifically unless we're trying to target Iran because Iran the Iranian missiles and most of Iranian weapon systems are just conveniently out of range for Diego Garcia. And that's still a long flight. If we were going to go to war with China and we were trying to forward deploy assets for that, you guys can do the research uh to determine what we might do uh with regards to the three islands chain doctrine. This has been very well thought out over the past 40 50 years or so. And generally, if we were to see these bombers at Guam or somewhere in the Marshall Islands or even in the Philippines, I would say, yeah, okay, that's probably an indicator of something going on with China. But Diego Garcia for me means Iran. Now, thinking big picture here, just to cover all bases and, you know, make sure that we're all examining this from a higher level, you know, more even-handed perspective, this cou , just to cover all bases and, you know, make sure that we're all examining this from a higher level, you know, more even-handed perspective, this could very well be a continuation of essentially speak softly and carry a big stick doctrine. Though, in this case, it would be speak very loudly and carry a big stick as well. This could be posturing. It could be what we call in the business power projection. Move a lot of bombers around. Make sure the Russian and Chinese satellites get a real good look at them. make sure the Iranians are very well aware that we can, you know, strike their country with arguable levels of success, right? Could be that the single phone call can bring all these bombers home like nothing happened. Uh they don't have to stay there permanently. They are for deployed for a reason. They can all just tomorrow by the time this brief gets out, we could get a new satellite image and they're all gone. That's just the way aviation works. However, this is out of the norm. This is not something we normally do. And most notably, there has been absolutely zero communication about this from the White House and the Pentagon and no journalists have been asking about this at tably, there has been absolutely zero communication about this from the White House and the Pentagon and no journalists have been asking about this at all. So, it kind of makes me a little bit more concerned that that nobody said, "Oh, there's a drill going on or an exercise." As far as I know, there isn't an exercise going on. I may be wrong about that. There may be an exercise, but this many assets is is a little bit uh interesting. So, again, indication of warning of war. I hate to be the bearer of bad news on that, but this is what we have so far. Now, just to add a little bit more credence to this idea, there have been an increase in uh fuelers strat tankers and general air-to-air refueler assets moving into Aluded air base. So, for anyone who spent some time at the deed, they know that Aluded air base is a very big uh regional hub for logistics, right? An aircraft landing at Alud is certainly not an indicator of very much, right? They have strata tankers stationed there normally as you can see in the the purple boxes. These are all of the assets that are on the ground right now as this as I'm recording this brief uh on the 29th of March. So, we can see that there are a lot of all of the assets that are on the ground right now as this as I'm recording this brief uh on the 29th of March. So, we can see that there are a lot of uh you know tankers uh refuelers that are stationed there normally. One thing to note, however, is that last night uh a flight of four KC46 Pegasus tankers took off from the United States and flew all the way to Aluded. So, there are four additional KC46s there, and that's a lot. That's a pretty big deployment of resources. Uh, and once again, just as a general strategic indication and warning, you don't typically need this many for a drill or an exercise. So, moving four tankers from the United States all the way over to the Middle East, where they already have plenty, uh, is again, it's an indication. I can't say for certain that this means things are about to kick off, but it's it's definitely um definitely an indicator. So, so I will definitely keep an eye out. Uh and uh I know a lot of aviation watchers are going to keep an eye out. Uh and I'm also going to keep an eye out for other indications that maybe point to there not really being much going on. For instance, another thing that you might want to keep an eye on are ship mov r indications that maybe point to there not really being much going on. For instance, another thing that you might want to keep an eye on are ship movements or have there been deployments of ma major navy assets. More carriers than usual departing uh port. And so far, nothing's out of the ordinary with regards to the Navy. So, clearly this is more along the lines of an Air Force kind of show going on right now. But yeah, it's not a good look. I hate to be the mirror of bad news again, but uh B2s don't move around that much. Uh they don't forward deploy. They're very expensive aircraft and they're very secret aircraft as well. So, we tend to not forward deploy them too much unless there's something serious going on. So, half a dozen B2s and a handful of refuelers making their way to the Middle East is uh not a really a good sign. But once again, hopefully this is just posturing. Hopefully, this is just a big exercise I didn't tell anybody about. Hopefully, this is nothing at all and next week we can all uh just kind of breathe a little bit easier. But right now, it's something to be certainly aware of for sure. Not like any of us can do anything about it, but it's definitely somethi bit easier. But right now, it's something to be certainly aware of for sure. Not like any of us can do anything about it, but it's definitely something to be aware of for sure. So, switching topics significantly, let's talk about the earthquake in Burma. For many of you who do not know, a very significant earthquake hit the nation of uh Myanmar or for those of us who like to go with the old ways, Burma along with Thailand. So, this was a very large earthquake. We can see that centered along a fault line here. You can just look at the map and see, yeah, that's a on a fault line there. So far, I've seen estimates that state that 17 million people are potentially in the affected area. Even though we're not hearing very much from Burma at the moment, we can see the devastation is quite significant. I don't know what's going to come of this. I don't know how many casualties there are going to be, but I right now the official count is something like 100, a little over 100 casualties, but we're seeing skyscrapers come down here or or being impacted in some way. So, I I just don't know uh how this is going to go, but I will uh continue doing research and updating in the wire throughout th impacted in some way. So, I I just don't know uh how this is going to go, but I will uh continue doing research and updating in the wire throughout the next week as recovery efforts start to get going. One of the things that's going to be very challenging is communications. So, as many of you who have been following the war in Burma know, uh really the Myanmar government doesn't really exist. Uh the country is being run by a military juna or honta depending on how you wanted to pronounce it. So, it's being run by a military council and it's technically in a state of coup. There has been a civil war going on there or I guess an attempt at a revolutionary war going on there and internet access has been very unreliable. When it does exist, it's been censored. So, you know, they're blocking the internet access to a lot of these major cities in Burma. So, it's hard to determine what to do. In that context, I think that makes a rather unfortunate segue to the Ghostnet reports for this week. For those of you who don't know, I'm sorry I keep forgetting to mention what this is. And I'm sure a lot of you who have recently kind of uh tuned into these briefings, you probably don't know what th forgetting to mention what this is. And I'm sure a lot of you who have recently kind of uh tuned into these briefings, you probably don't know what this is. So, just a brief overview, the Ghostnet is an HF radio network that I've kind of established here. Really, it's just a communications plan. It's nothing that I've invented new. It's just a kind of a shared way of exchanging information using highfrequency radios or shortwave radios. Some of you have maybe seen some of my content on shortwave radio and and how if the internet goes out, if you know, we lose power. Shortwave radio is really the only way to communicate uh off-rid without using someone else's infrastructure over long distances. Again, shortwave or HF radio is a whole other animal from, you know, the classic Bow Fang or handheld walkie-talkie kind of thing. But, uh, this is the the best shot I think we've got for now. It's going to improve over time. I've got other elements coming in, but this is really just a shared last ditch kind of ad hoc plan that we've kind of thrown together over the past year or so. And I think it's quite helpful for exchanging a lot of information completely off-rid. So from my receiver here own together over the past year or so. And I think it's quite helpful for exchanging a lot of information completely off-rid. So from my receiver here without using the internet at all, I can pick up reports such as this. So these are random people around the United States and some parts of Canada that have uh decided to uh share information. So, as we can see, there are a lot of uh reports on things like wildfires and uh people checking in to see how many stations they heard. It's a it's a whole thing. So, uh it's really complicated to kind of explain, but the general gist of it is that this is a very very important part of communicating in a grid down sort of situation where access to the internet might not be a guarantee. So, uh thank you all for participating. Those of you who transmit and share information, you will get out of the ghost net what you put into it. So, uh, for many of you who are listen only, that's perfectly fine. That's what it's kind of intended for. But really, the guys out there who are the allstars are the ones who are putting in the work to to get on the air and share information from their local area. So, this is your chance uh to to share as much informa s who are putting in the work to to get on the air and share information from their local area. So, this is your chance uh to to share as much information as you can and keep others around you informed in a very safe and secure and reliable manner. That's pretty much all I have for today. Thank you guys all for watching. Here are the sources as usual. There are a plethora of links in the description as always, so you can get access to all the maps, charts, and all that kind of stuff just by checking out the links below, especially things like my research notes, and my sources throughout the week. Those are primarily on my Obsidian page. So, once again, thank you guys all for watching. Thank you for your support. It's been a busy week, and it's going to be a busy summer. I can already tell many of you already could probably agree with me on that. So, hopefully we'll uh be able to do a lot of good work this summer. But for now, thank you for all of your support, and we will see you next time. And as always, fight in the shape.