The Wire - March 20, 2026

//The Wire//2300Z March 20, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS CHINA BEGINS MAKING DIPLOMATIC MOVES. UNITED STATES DEPLOYS SECOND MARINE EXPEDITIONARY UNIT TO CENTCOM.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: Iranian forces successfully engaged an American F-35 aircraft during a strike mission within Iran. IRGC officials initially released footage of a missile impacting an F-35, which most people assumed was probably fake, initially. However CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins stated that one F-35 did make an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia, but declined to directly confirm what caused the incident. Analyst Comment: Due to the all evidence available to the public, it is almost certain that the Anti-Aircraft engagement did happen, and that the aircraft survived the encounter enough to limp back across the Gulf to friendly lines. This is also indicated by the Iranians themselves via the classic "trim the clip and replay it a million times so that the viewer can't see the aircraft managed to survive" tactic which was heavily used for this short video clip. More strategically, this is an indicator that the United States is not operating under the state of "uncontested airspace" that was advertised at the start of the war. Almost three weeks into the conflict the airspace is still very much contested, and the Iranians have some level of effective air defense that is able to actually successfully target the F-35 platform. -HomeFront- California: Yesterday the USS *BOXER* (LHD-4) departed port San Diego ahead of schedule for a deployment to the Middle East. The 11th MEU is embarked on this vessel, and will be the second MEU dedicated to CENTCOM, supplementing the USS *TRIPOLI* which will be arriving in theater soon. Analyst Comment: This is an indication and warning that a Ground Combat Element to the current war in Iran is actively being considered and planned for. At this moment it's too soon to tell if this is a serious endeavor, but it would be wise to consider that President Trump does not have a history of bluffing on military matters. So far, from Midnight Hammer to Venezuela, every threat of military use has come to fruition eventually. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As the war rages in the Middle East, China and other nations throughout Asia have been making moves of their own. On Wednesday, Chinese officials offered to provide LNG to Taiwan if they were to consider coming under Beijing's rule. Taiwan has obviously rejected the offer, stating that they have alternative means of maintaining energy security (i.e. the United States). While China knew this offer would have been rejected, it's in line with China's policy of moving goalposts incredibly slowly over time. All of this is helpful to view in the context of this year's Annual Threat Assessment provided by the Director of National Intelligence. While focus has been on the DNI for other reasons lately, this yearly report came out a few days ago, and revealed a surprising change of mentality for China. The official stance of the DNI is that China will not attempt to militarily conquer Taiwan, and will instead attempt a more soft approach, bringing Taiwan under the fold via economic means. This puts on full display the differences of opinion within the IC on the Taiwan issue, which have been growing over the years; it has become a common theory that China would prefer to take Taiwan indirectly rather than fighting for it, due to the costliness of invading such a nation as Taiwan. Within the Intelligence Community, official assessments are often centered around who's the loudest, and not necessarily who's right. Opinions on China have largely been a knife-fight within the IC for a while now, and the DNI report might reflect a change of heart on the Taiwan issue. For years, the loudest voices have been that China was planning a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, which is still a very solid theory. The DNI's report is surprising for very nuanced reasons: This report acknowledges that there is another possible theory, and that the alternative (the peaceful economic takeover) is actually most likely. Either way, the war in the Middle East has complicated the situation, and however that conflict works out will determine how much political influence the Chinese have in their quest to expand their regional dominance. China's strategy with Taiwan is essentially "do nothing, win" and now that another hot shooting war is underway in the Middle East, the Chinese are very unlikely to interrupt their enemy when they are making a mistake. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT// Bibliography, Sources, and Research - DNI Annual Threat Assessment: https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2026-Unclassified-Report.pdf CENTCOM F-35 Statement: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/19/us-f-35-aircraft-makes-emergency-landing-after-a-combat-mission-over-iran Lloyd's report 1: https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156667/Yanbu-loading-risk-rises-as-Iran-targets-energy-infrastructure China-Taiwan Offer: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-makes-energy-security-reunification-offer-taiwan-amid-middle-east-war-2026-03-18/ Southern border: https://x.com/AnthonyAguero/status/2034846265108746657 Iranian exports 1: https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/2034963884956590497 Barksdale: https://www.foxnews.com/us/unauthorized-drones-detected-over-u-s-air-force-base-housing-nuclear-capable-b-52-bombers-military Obsidian Internal Links: [[The Wire - March 1, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 2, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 3, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 4, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 5, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 6, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 9, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 10, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 11, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 12, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 13, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 16, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 17, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 18, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 19, 2026]] [[The Wire - March 20, 2026]] Tags: #Iran #War #GulfWar