The Wire - October 7, 2023

//The Wire//1800Z October 7, 2023// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WAR BREAKS OUT IN ISRAEL/GAZA AS HAMAS/HEZBOLLAH LAUNCH ATTACKS.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Conflict erupts as HAMAS launches complex, multi-domain attack on Israel by air, land, and sea. Over 5,000 rockets fired, many of which have landed in the industrial sector of Tel Aviv. Several Israeli tanks have been knocked out as attacks occur along all border outposts. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is on high alert, and has carried out harassing attacks via motos along the Israel/Lebanon border. UN troops in Lebanon have returned to their bases. Israeli PM Netanyahu declares state of War. Analyst Comments: This is no harassing fires, this is the real McCoy. HAMAS has clearly been planning this attack for a very long time, and certainly has only been able to amass this sheer volume of munitions via direct support from Iran. This is the most substantial conflict throughout the region in decades. The most perplexing facet of the war so far is that Israel does not seem to have detected the build up of forces prior to the attack. In this regard, this attack is reminiscent of the Vietnam War’s Tet Offensive. Online chatter suggests that this attack may have been directly funded by the US’s payment of $6 billion to Iran mere weeks ago, but as of yet there’s no direct evidence to support this (though it makes sense). The US has pledged “support”, but what that support might be is certainly in question, as recent reporting in Congress has indicated the US is in a poor state to even arm its own territorial defenses, much less render any substantial military aid to Israel. Funding will almost certainly be allocated from somewhere to send to Israel, but in terms of real military hardware support the US can’t offer much. What remains in question is whether or not this war will expand to include other regional players. So far, Lebanon seems to be in play, so the possibility of this war expanding is very real. All eyes should be on other regional players who may not take kindly to a total war/aggressive retaliation throughout Gaza. As with most military operations, the most critical part is the first 24 hours, which will be extremely indicative as to how the conflict will develop. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst: S2ANNNN