Afghanistan Intel Update: 25/26 August 2021

hello again everyone welcome back to the underground uh this is the update for the kabul situation uh the situation in afghanistan for august the 25th uh this is the evening edition already did one this morning but uh there this is the evening edition this is being recorded at 2200 eastern standard time to get the information out as quick as possible so let's just jump right into it with the biggest update and this is the guidance that is coming from the us embassy is for personnel who are not within the airport perimeter right now avoid the uh the airport uh the embassy is stating that there are significant threats to personnel at both the north gate and the abbey gate and also the east gate as well and really the baron hotel complex as well so the embassy is advising people to just not uh not come to the airport now this is a couple this is the second time the us embassy has stated this and the department of state has stated this so and they they flip-flopped on it before so clearly the situation is not really settled clearly some people probably disagree about this threat assessment and i don't want to really spread rumors or anything but this this announcement has to be viewed eople probably disagree about this threat assessment and i don't want to really spread rumors or anything but this this announcement has to be viewed with a little bit of skepticism considering the situation the united states is leaving they're they're drawing down their troops right now so it's almost like i imagine i'm a person on the ground and i'm not inside the airport and i'm standing outside waiting to get in and they're they're you know they're not letting me in and they're saying oh now there's a threat on the gate now go back home go to your safe house go sit down and wait for us to come get you and uh they radio you the message as your as the last plane is leaving afghanistan oh by the way we can't come get you now like that's almost like what it seems like um so i i really don't want to tell anybody what to do on this or give any advice on i'm just saying that if i was on the ground i would be viewing this with a lot of skepticism you know i at this point in time if you stay in afghanistan the risk is extreme you know if you stay at the airport the risk is extreme the risk is extreme either way but one way could involve you leaving the country and not sitting in a hotel ou stay at the airport the risk is extreme the risk is extreme either way but one way could involve you leaving the country and not sitting in a hotel room and watching the president give a speech about how all i wish we could have gotten everybody out you know so it's kind of frustrating to sit here from an analytical perspective and see these kinds of statements going back and forth even if there is a genuine threat i think people would be willing to to face that threat at this point and considering the taliban are manning every inch of the gate and isis is their adversary they've been fighting isis for a very long period of time it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to to say this and this kind of ties into the next point which is the united states has been observed to be forcibly evacuating reporters from the grounds uh several foreign uh not u.s reporters several foreign reporters were reportedly forced onto aircraft against their will and forcibly evacuated from the from the airport now granted these are journalists right so they look to sensationalize everything so it could be just as simple as some guy in a uniform saying hey you guys should probably leave now this is gettin look to sensationalize everything so it could be just as simple as some guy in a uniform saying hey you guys should probably leave now this is getting kind of spicy out here and they take it as a you know oh we had to get on the aircraft at gunpoint we don't really know because reporters are not really trustworthy so it does however the the fact that this does seem to have happened to some degree the united states most certainly learned from the first evacuation okay we have to realize that that the united states screwed things up the first time and rather than do the right thing and fix the problem by getting aircraft for people out the united states is taking the policy of well let's just make sure that there aren't any cameras to record people falling off the aircraft this time you see that seems to be what they're doing now granted that is a that is a leap but it's not a really huge leap and if i was on the ground i would definitely be thinking that's the case um ever since this thing this whole thing started the us government has has constantly made the wrong decision constantly so one has to look at the removal of reporters from the situation with a lot of apprehension about s has constantly made the wrong decision constantly so one has to look at the removal of reporters from the situation with a lot of apprehension about the about the immediate future and continuing on with the evacuation of personnel uh most u.s forces are continuing to retreat there has been a lot of talk about how the personnel the civilian personnel on the ground that were flown in to process visas are now gone that's every country is handling this differently and it's hard to say i haven't seen any any positive information either way to indicate whether or not the united states is still processing visas and still getting people inside or not but it does seem like they're not the united kingdom has announced about 12 hours ago that they're going to be evacuating within the next 24 to 36 hours and they've already evacuated most of their personnel so you know everybody's trying to beat this deadline with time to spare norway just announced that they are shutting down the field hospital so the field hospital is no longer going to be active now of course there are aid stations and things like that but the hospital that's been treating people this entire time and they've also been loo tive now of course there are aid stations and things like that but the hospital that's been treating people this entire time and they've also been looking after children who's whose parents are were nowhere to be found so i think they said they had 35 kids so don't quote me on that but they shut it down and they brought everybody back uh to norway the polish special forces guys have already pulled out of there also germany is withdrawing as well they uh germany's having a hard time with it because they uh they're fighting political strife within their own country right now but germany has made statements to to the effect that hey the united states is leaving we're going to beat them out of there because we can't stay unless the united states stays um and this is coming all on the same day that there are reportedly this is just this is numbers from a lot of different people us government other nations they're stating there are about 10 000 people still inside the perimeter as of right now hard to say if that number is accurate i would say that probably no number is accurate we probably don't even know how many people have actually been evacuated so far but there are definitely still say that probably no number is accurate we probably don't even know how many people have actually been evacuated so far but there are definitely still people on the ground there are a lot of people inside the airport perimeter there's a lot of people outside the perimeter and there are a lot of people in the city and in the rest of the country so that's unfortunate and especially unfortunate because congress sort of spilled the beans there's a lot of mainstream news news articles going out around from confidential congressional staffers right that are talking about the clandestine rescue efforts that have been undertaken now we've been on the lookout for this kind of stuff and we're not going to talk about it too much but i will state that there are not there have not nearly been enough clandestine efforts been undertaken to get people out and that directly ties into the next point which is u.s politicians lying or distorting or whatever you want to call it the number of americans that are left so they changed the estimate from 15 000 people 15 000 people abide in regime was saying was still on the ground in just a kabul area yesterday and today they're saying there's only six thou people 15 000 people abide in regime was saying was still on the ground in just a kabul area yesterday and today they're saying there's only six thousand left in the whole country so that's puzzling i mean i get it evacuations have been taking place that would you know obviously the number is going to reduce we're getting americans out that's good right but flights have been slowing down to a crawl for the past 24 hours uh and the military people are evacuating they're evacuating their own personnel like we can do the math we know how many people can fit on an aircraft like in an emergency right we the first numbers that came out of afghanistan there were 800 people on those aircraft and let's just assume that we're going to keep those extremely cramped numbers which they didn't keep for the majority of these evacuations they're not loading that many people on these aircraft but let's just say they did for a second we know how many aircraft are transiting in and out of the country and we can count we know that there aren't any really clandestine efforts coming out of the country because pakistan won't let anybody fly through their airspace with their transponder off so there isn't clandestine efforts coming out of the country because pakistan won't let anybody fly through their airspace with their transponder off so there isn't like some kind of secret flight path that thousands of aircraft are taking per second to leave the country no like it we're doing the math here and it's not really adding up now to walk this back and to put things in perspective we obviously here are not on the ground and we do not have or nor will we ever have the full picture of what's going on so the intelligence gap uh the this chasm of things that we do not know is pretty big but we can close that gap quite a lot using our ocean skills and everyone else who's in this sort of ocean world can do the same thing too but anybody who's in that community will tell you that ocean is a valuable tool but it can't tell you the whole picture right however based on what the world has seen the world of ocean is very strongly indicating that hundreds or or even thousands of american citizens will be left behind unless significant changes are made right now some could argue that we've already passed the zero barrier right and it's really it's too late and from the analytical side of the house i right now some could argue that we've already passed the zero barrier right and it's really it's too late and from the analytical side of the house it certainly does unfortunately look that way but even though our politicians and current senior military leadership are running away from this problem like a stabbed rat uh we're not going to let this go until everybody's back home so we're still working on things and despite the taliban stating that they are going to agree to let afghans leave after the august 31st deadline we don't really have a whole lot of faith for that so if anyone the taliban in the beginning let's remember stated that we're not going to let afghans leave because we need their talent that's what they said um and from the top perspective of the taliban it kind of makes sense you don't want all of your subjects to leave the country so it makes sense for the taliban to restrict afghans from leaving um however i don't think that the art of the deal was done and we gave the taliban anything i literally think the taliban are lying in order for the americans to just leave and then they're going to do what they want i know we're all shocked shocked i say right to to he n are lying in order for the americans to just leave and then they're going to do what they want i know we're all shocked shocked i say right to to hear that the taliban might be telling a fib but it certainly seems like i would be very surprised let me put it this way i would be very surprised if the taliban actually let any aircraft take off after august 31st that would be very surprising and i would be very surprised if they let any aircraft land after august 31st as well also i didn't put it on the slide but i did want to speak to it there are a couple of a couple of rumors going around that i just wanted to touch on and did let people know to kind of look out for uh first off is the rumor of fuel shortages a lot of people are complaining that there are very there's very little gasoline for vehicles left in kabul which kind of makes sense you've got a sharply increased demand everyone who had a vehicle has transited they've used it in the past week or so shuffling people around and things like that so the demand has been sky high way more than normal granted that's been balanced out by people not exactly using their vehicles to go to work or anything so you know it kind of bala way more than normal granted that's been balanced out by people not exactly using their vehicles to go to work or anything so you know it kind of balances itself out but i do find it interesting that the taliban has taken efforts to try to increase uh the oil and petroleum deals between iran over the past 24 hours that kind of signals that there's probably a problem there so it makes sense that fuel will be in short supply it's it's a third world country so the fuel situation is not exactly going to be a positive one and also the other rumor is that some people probably saw this a couple of days ago but there was a rumor that a ukrainian plane was hijacked and flown to iran from what we can tell this is not true the iranians say it's not true but of course they're not trustworthy right but also the ukrainians say that there's that this didn't happen either one the the source for this i should mention is russian state media so this came from the etar tess or i think they're just called tas now which is the one of their three or four main russian state-sponsored media so it would make sense for russia to spread disinformation about ukraine particularly ukraine during a time like this in russian state-sponsored media so it would make sense for russia to spread disinformation about ukraine particularly ukraine during a time like this this information is going around all the time propaganda is a thing now so uh it's been kind of worked out everybody's kind of glossed over it but just in case anybody sees anything and as we look back on this event years from now i just wanted to mention that we know that that a ukrainian plane did not get hijacked let's go ahead and jump to the map and i'll show you the very minimal updates i have for the rest of the area on the ground alright so on the map really there haven't been many changes at all except the situation has gotten worse traffic has gotten worse this stretch of road airport road as usual has been blocked by the taliban main gate is closed hard closed no one in or out this stretch of highway here along along the perimeter to abbey gate still very very congested and actually we did get some more imagery through open source open source means we went ahead and georeferenced it so let me see if i could swing the map around and show you the uh the number of people still left now these people you might be confused as to nced it so let me see if i could swing the map around and show you the uh the number of people still left now these people you might be confused as to why they're on this side and why are they in the sewage canal there this is the hotel baron complex and since the cat's kind of out of the bag i guess i can talk about it now this has been one of the main areas for getting civilians and u.s personnel out so the afghans figured that out and as you can see they are heavily uh invested in getting out of here because they could see helicopters moving back and forth and they know they're landing over here so i just thought i'd point that out because like i mentioned the cat's kind of out of the bag for better or for worse and let's talk about the north gate north gate situation much the same uh i do have imagery that but it's not in this kmz i didn't load it in just yet traffic here along russian road is still very very bad uh life is returning to normal as normal as it can be under the taliban's uh regime here uh throughout the rest of the city uh it's really hard to tell what's kind of going on because social media posts have taken a sharp decline i don't know if that's due to internet city uh it's really hard to tell what's kind of going on because social media posts have taken a sharp decline i don't know if that's due to internet outages or anything like that it might just be people not wanting to participate in social media and also we have noticed that in some some respects the crowds have gotten kind of smaller uh but it's hard to tell if that is due to people getting in on the base and and getting on an aircraft and getting out or if it's because people are just they're they're losing hope and they're going back home i personally think that it's probably the latter but hopefully it's the more optimistic uh the more optimistic choice there as far as the northern alliance goes i don't have hardly any updates i i do know a couple of things that have happened in pan shear the taliban have entered a state of siege and they have stopped all food shipments and really all traffic into and out of the main panshire valley area that's significant because the taliban knows that they're uh they're in for a prolonged fight it might not be a large fight but it's going to be a prolonged fight to get some of those last guys out of there which they almost certainly will do it might not be a large fight but it's going to be a prolonged fight to get some of those last guys out of there which they almost certainly will do in the next few days to weeks the first few waves of taliban soldiers that have made their way up to panshir have gotten absolutely slaughtered by the guys up there and they have taken the taliban has taken devastating losses but they've also given some losses as well to the north northern alliance guys so really the situation has not changed as of august 24th it's too dynamic to chant to to call uh i don't even feel comfortable uh saying that these districts are in fact taliban or northern alliance held it's really just unclear at this moment at least at least from what i can see but hopefully uh this will at least provide some kind of resistance for afghanistan moving forward and that's pretty much all i've got for today kind of a short one not really much to talk about other than a lot of geopolitical stuff which isn't really helpful to people on the ground but we're constantly updating the kmz we are we're working on a lot of stuff behind the scenes maybe not stuff that's particularly effective right we're facing the law of dimini ng the kmz we are we're working on a lot of stuff behind the scenes maybe not stuff that's particularly effective right we're facing the law of diminishing returns right with every day that goes by we're able to be less and less effective not more and more effective so our efforts here are not being as effective as they used to be if they were effective in the first place we don't know but in any case we are working on a lot of stuff we're brainstorming we're thinking we're trying to put ourselves in the shoes of any americans or people in general in afghanistan who are trying to leave and myself and the rest of the team here are trying to figure out ways of getting out right now it doesn't look super positive like i mentioned before this could end up very well being a situation like a civilian version of seer where we're quite literally going to be watching people hike on foot or on vehicles that are still running or even on horseback or whatever through the mountains to a neighboring country hopefully that won't be the case but we'll see we're going to plan like it is and if we're pleasantly surprised by some kind of miraculous uh evacuation efforts then all the better but for no l see we're going to plan like it is and if we're pleasantly surprised by some kind of miraculous uh evacuation efforts then all the better but for now we're going to keep our keep our ear to the ground we're going to continue developing out the rest of the country we've been working on developing out not just the kabul region but the rest of the country and we're going to be pushing that out as soon as we have something that is tangible so hopefully that was helpful for everyone again just wanted to show this slide for anyone who is uh who has not seen our previous briefings on on the subject we've been cranking out these briefings pretty often and we've been updating the kmz that i just showed you on the map uh quite consistently several times a day for about a week now and everybody remember to just keep your head up keep your chin up and we'll uh we're going to get everybody out of there regardless of what happens we're going to make sure that happens so just keep telling yourself that and keep moving forward and we will see you next time and as always fight in the shade