Intel Update - Jan. 31 - Reasonable Men

Hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground. This is the intel update for January 25th through the 31st of 2026. At last, we have arrived at the end of January 2026. Good grief. January has been one of those times where it seems like an entire century of events has taken place in a month, and this week is no exception. So, let's get right to it and learn what we can from the events of the week around the United States. The flavor this week has been civil unrest as usual. I don't want to be too presumptuous in Minneapolis, but it seems like the situation there is simmering down a bit. There is some coordination between the state and the feds now. So hopefully over the next few days things will simmer down a little bit. The unrest is not going away by any means, but maybe Minneapolis can pump the brakes when it comes to the very severe insurgency that we're seeing rising throughout the city. Around the country, however, unrest is organizing, taking the lessons learned from Minneapolis and transposing that to other cities as well. So, we'll get into that in just a bit, but it's been kind of a hot button issue for the past couple of weeks. And since all eyes have indeed been on domestic issues within the United States this week, there have also been a few items of note to be aware of overseas, namely the Middle East and the Far East. In China, several strategic developments have taken place over the past few weeks, which I haven't really found a good way to work into reporting, so I'll mention it now just so that we're understanding this for later. In short, Chairman Xi has been very, very busy. Purges of military and senior political leadership have continued over the past couple of weeks. Consolidation of power is the name of the game right now within internal Chinese politics. And these efforts are widely considered to be one of the many indicators of an eventual war with Taiwan. Xi is not exactly a betting man and he will need to preemptively remove anyone from his political system which might oppose him during a time of conflict. At least that's the theory. So over the past few uh weeks and months, Xi has actually completely replaced everybody in key political positions and now military positions as well. So this is not surprising in the slightest. We've been monitoring this for a very long time. And also Chinese politics is always an intricate web of loyalties. But even still, very serious moves are being made throughout the Orient. All of which bring the region closer to conflict with each passing day. China continues their long slow march through the institutions as we are working through here in the United States as well. just in a different way. And in China's case, they are making steps to prepare for the invasion of Taiwan. I know everybody's tired of hearing about Taiwan, and we've been talking about, oh, they're going to invade Taiwan for years, but China definitely is preparing for it. So, speaking of impending regional warfare, let's discuss this strategic movement for this week in the Middle East. American military movements have been observably increased throughout the Suncom AO. Though, at least right now, as of the time that I'm recording this, it does not appear that military action is imminent. I know, continuing my own trend, usually when I say that is right when we bomb something. So, we'll have to see, I guess, but it's always important to remember that bombers could always be in the air, but as of right now, when it comes to anything that's not an aircraft, right, all we've got right now is a carrier strike group parked off the coast of Oman, ready and waiting. The Armada that President Trump has mentioned, which is supposedly bigger than Venezuela, um, I'm not really sure what he's referring to. There could be some other secret resources we don't know about, but I what I'm seeing is not jing with what he's saying. All we've got right now is the standard carrier strike group off the coast of Oman, which is standard for scentcom. So, I don't know what he's talking about with the other ships. Now, there are some other surface ships that are moving into the region as well. And there are obviously plenty already there. And we're also moving aircraft into the region as well, but so far we're not seeing the same level of forces as were staged with Venezuela. Venezuela, we staged a lot of people and a lot of resources and a lot of platforms, but in the Middle East, that that's not materialized just yet. However, this will probably change over the next few weeks. And just to be blunt, Prime Minister Netanyahu is tentatively scheduled to visit the United States from February 18th through the 22nd. So, I would expect some decision to be made around that time regarding strikes in Iran. That is, of course, with the caveat that bombers could be in the air at any time. And I suspect that in addition to the the bombers and the aircraft carriers and all the traditional uh conventional military forces, I suspect there's quite a lot of sabotage been going on in Iran, particularly in Thran over the past few days because a lot of things seem to be blowing up that don't really have an excuse to be blowing up. So that's quite a bit of speculation, though, and there's not a whole lot that we can sink our teeth into. So while we're on the topic, let's go ahead and jump over to ArcGIS, and I'll show you what I think the likely targets are going to be. Many of you might rightfully say, "Ah, but S2, they already bombed Iran. Why would they bomb Iran again?" Well, let's take a look. All right, so here we are in ArcJS. I'm sorry if this isn't quite as pretty as I'd like it to be. This is the platform that I use to make a lot of my mapping products as actually most of my mapping products are made in this application, and it's not the prettiest thing to look at sometimes. But I have to use this for briefing purposes today because the imagery that I have won't actually load into anything else because it's too high resolution and it's too big. So, into the breach we go. And there are two sites or two main sites that the United States struck with uh B2 bombers uh last June, June 22nd of 2025. Operation Midnight Hammer. As a side note, I have a sneaking suspicion that the United States also struck a few other places that we haven't publicly stated yet, but I'm just going to keep that to myself for now because it's not really operationally important. So, this is the Natan's facility that uh was struck. This is one of the main targets and this is where the Iranians enrich a lot of their uranium at this facility. They've been doing it for a few decades now. So, it's a very well-known site. And as you can see, uh, based on my little pucks here, these are the places where American, uh, bombs dropped. So, let me turn that off just so we could see this imagery from directly after the strikes. And this image was taken on June 28th, which was 6 days after the initial strikes. So, uh, we can see they took out the electrical power plant, electrical substation for the site. They blow up a random unnamed building which I can't remember what they actually do here. This is also a power substation. Uh here they blow up fairly efficiently. But the main target, the big uh the big kahuna here is this building. So this is what they call their pilot test fuel enrichment facility. It goes by a few different names, but this is one of the big facilities that they use to enrich a few of the precursors for uh making uh nuclear weapons or uh highlyenriched uranium, however you want to phrase it, right? There are a few other targets that were down here in the mountains as well. I haven't put those on the map just yet, but uh they have underground enrichment storage halls here, and there's also suspected to be quite a few here as well. So, you can get down into the weeds of the of this if you want, but the the interesting part here is this building. So, let's go ahead and open up a more recent image, and this is the image of the facility on January 18th, 2026. So, just a couple of weeks ago. As you can see, they built it back. Uh, and it's been built back with a vigor. So, that's why I think they're going to strike Iran again. Yes, we did strike the Iranians. Uh, but they built it back. So, uh, just looking at a couple of these other places, they of course repaired the electrical substation facility. Let me just toggle this on and off a little bit so you guys can see. They've made quite a few repairs over the past year. And actually, I have a very high quality image from January 1st, 2026. So, let me uh just so you guys can see if you want this data, you can screenshot it or whatever. Uh let's see. Turn off January 18th. Turn on January 1st. Yeah. And so, this is January 1st, 2026. Yeah, that that building right there is uh pretty good and well toothpicked up, I think. And uh there are quite a few other facilities that are still very not uh not good to go. But if we come down here to this facility, the one of the actual enrichment facilities or a facility, a building that's linked to the enrichment of uranium, look at the difference between January 1st and January 18th. You see they finished it. So this is this image. The higher quality image, ironically, is more is uh not as recent. But uh the building was almost finished. It was almost completed. The roofing at least. I don't know what's underneath it, but uh on January 1st, 2026, the building was partially uh roofed. And as of a couple weeks ago, they finished it. So that's why I think we're going to hit Iran again. That's why all this rhetoric is in the news because they've gotten pretty close. So, so anyway, that's the kind of technical nature of the Natanic side and that's why I think we're going to hit them again. Uh, you know, there's going to be a lot of political debate on all sides of it. That's fair enough. Honestly, you're more than justified in arguing why why in the heck are we even involved in any of this, but I'm just telling you the raw facts. And the raw facts are that the Iranians built back uh one of the major facilities that we struck the first time. So, that is the Natans facility proper, the main military base here. But let's uh let's take a look at something else a little bit more interesting here. So uh one of the main targets for the uh American strikes in this area or the underground storage and enrichment facilities or whatever is actually going on underneath this mountain, right? And we can actually take a look and we can see the underground uh bunker entrances here. Now obviously they're underground so we can't tell how big they are or how far they go. We just have to kind of trust intelligence which is mostly coming from the Israelis on this because they're obviously the ones who are interested in this sort of thing. But for the most part, we can't really see what's going on here. But what we can do is we can see what's going on on the surface. So let's go ahead and just turn turn everything off at Natans. Okay. So now we're just looking at the of the base imagery which was taken years ago. This is June 28th, 2025. And pay attention to this uh what we call generally is a spoil pile. Uh just a pile of dirt. So, they're evacuating or cleaning out or expanding these bunkers and they're just dumping the dirt right beside the facility just like a mine would, right? Just like a a commercial mining effort would would see. Dirt doesn't just disappear. It's got to go somewhere, right? So, they most of the time they just take it right out of the entrance and just dump it right there. And that's what this pile is. And a lot of people have been tracking this pile for a while. I don't know if it has a name or not. There's a lot of uh Iran nerds who are into this way more than me. I'm just casually looking at this stuff and uh buying the imagery for it. But but the reason for focusing on this pile of dirt so much is because well, we don't actually know how much the Iranians uh were damaged by the American bombs, right? I'm sure the Americans know. I'm sure the CIA knows. I'm sure the Israelis know obviously, right? Everybody knows. But they're not going to make it public how much we uh the these American bombs damage these underground facilities. The Iranians likewise are also going to lie about how much their operation got taken offline uh for many different reasons. So the truth again is hard to discern at this stage. But what we can do is we can look at a pile of dirt and in this case we can look at the pile of dirt from June 28th, 2025 and we can compare it to a more recent image from January 18th, 2026. And we can see the dirt pile got larger. So what does uh what does that mean? Well, it can mean many different things, but generally this would imply, again, this is not hard evidence of anything, but this would imply that the Iranians have been digging and they've been trying to dig their way out of this and they are improving the site andor repairing from the last time. So, once again, this is not conclusive in any way, shape, or form. However, this does indicate that the Iranians are trying to uh repair and revitalize the facility that we bombed. So, is it to the level of development where the United States is going to bomb the this place? Again, I don't know. That's up to the United States to decide, probably based off of very classified information that the public is not going to have access to. So, again, we're just trying to grasp its draws here when it comes to looking at these satellite images a lot of the time. But, I know I've gotten a lot of messages from people who say, "Oh, we're not going to strike Iran again. We took their we took their program offline completely forever. It's never going to be built again." No, that's very clearly not true. So, we can see this from the images that it's um it's actually been repaired quite a bit. Now, this this building right here, the uh pilot fuel facility, it could just be an empty shell. You know, there could be nothing inside that building. I don't know. It doesn't really matter, honestly, cuz the United States is going to act on whatever intelligence they have. So, I just wanted to show that, yeah, the Iranians are doing what the Iranians have been known to do over the past few decades. Long before I was born, the Iranians were doing this. we bomb them, the Israelis bomb them or whoever bombs them and they go back and they build the same stuff over again. So, uh, that's just the way that it is. Again, people are going to argue and debate it forever and ever and ever. I just wanted to show you some of the satellite imagery that I had because again, I already paid for it, so I might as well show it to you guys. So, either way, this is uh this is what we've got so far. So, timeline wise, how long have we got? I don't know. It could be as I'm uploading this today, it could the bombs could already be in the air. I don't know. that tends to be the way things work. But either way, I found I found it to be kind of interesting that yeah, theians are have rebuilt a lot of the stuff that they've uh that we destroyed even though they have left quite a few buildings uh unrepaired and they've kind of moved to other facilities. So, they have learned to not keep their stuff out in the open and the and that the United States is going to blow up their stuff uh if we leave if they leave it out in the open too long. Again, whether it's justified or not, it's up for you to debate. I'm just saying what's going to happen. And I think uh I think in a couple of weeks I'm going to have another bu another another image of uh of this building being cratered uh probably just like that once again. So that would be my guess. Again, this is a very soft ball assessment. Anybody with two eyes and a couple of brain cells rubbed together can come to this conclusion as well. I just wanted to show you the imagery that I had. So enough with the Persians for now. Let's move back to the United States and talk about something that's probably a little bit more pertinent to us uh living here in the United States and that is the civil unrest. Back on the homeront, everyone's favorite topic. I know, Minneapolis. Fear not, I'm not going to beat this one to death like I already have, but I'll cover it just in general because of the other concerns that are present throughout the United States now. And it has taken a few days for the situation to settle after the shakeup of leadership and the signal group Chad leak. On the federal side, statements made all around throughout this week, including those of President Trump himself, indicate that deescalation is the federal strategy throughout the city. In short, the feds cut a deal with Waltz and Fry on several terms. So far, the exact terms of the deal are not explicitly clear, but we do know with reasonable certainty how this has worked out. Minneapolis city leadership will give up illegal immigrants that they have in their jails, and in return, the feds will reduce forces in the city. Another part of this is that the Minneapolis Police Department will have to provide aid to federal forces that remain in the city long term and not refuse to answer 911 calls as they have been doing. There are other parts of the deal, but that's the gist of the deescalation measures taken right now. The biggest problem with all of this is that the city, surprise, surprise, surprise, has already gone back on their word, as confirmed by President Trump himself. So, how this is all going to get settled is anyone's guess. We're just going to have to wait and see. It could be that the White House comes in and tries some other tactics. I don't know. It's it's really kind of up in the air at the moment. But right now there has been a reduction in the overall tensions in the city even though demonstrations have basically remained the same. So the most concerning factor is that of activist groups and NOS's. Even if Walt and Fry were to play ball with the feds, their foot soldiers certainly will not. And so far this has been the case throughout the city as various insurgent groups recover from the leak of their chat rooms. For those who have not been following this, a few independent journalists have gained access to many of the different dozens of different signal chat groups and discord chat groups which have been coordinating a lot of this unrest operation in the city. And in short, the commies are a scurry. Doctrally speaking, communist revolutionary groups, which is what these guys call themselves. So that's not me just being derogatory. That's what they actually call themselves. Most of these groups and their many offshoots, these groups tend to be rather paranoid organizations. So, while normal people may lament the embarrassment of a group chat being leaked, but would otherwise recover after a while, in far-left groups, the effect is absolutely devastating. Immediately after their main uh group chats got leaked, uh they created a bunch of other group chats, and it turns out those got infiltrated as well by journalists. So, they have really nowhere to hide now. And through those follow-on group chats that have been created and subsequently leaked as well, everyone is pointing fingers at each other and operations have taken a hit as a result. The very day that that signal chat leaked, uh there was a very sharp reduction in protests throughout Minneapolis. Basically, nothing happened. Uh there were very few demonstrations. Why is that? Because everybody was terrified because their group chat leaked and they were in those group chats confessing to very very serious felonies and terrorism. So that's exactly what they were doing. That's why they were scared. That's why there was a brief reduction force throughout the city. Sunlight is the best disinfectant. And in the case of these group chats, uh, their plans to commit very serious terror attacks were revealed. And they got scared, so they ran, or at least a few of them did. Now, make no mistake, this is not capitulation on the part of the activists. This is merely a temporary setback. These groups will get their feet back under them very quickly, and within a few weeks will have learned from their mistakes when it comes to communication and organization. Several mayors and governors from around the country have taken the ideas from Minneapolis and improved upon them. Several states have now established government-run anti-ICE tip lines, formalizing the efforts to target federal forces, such as in New Jersey. The other day, the mayor of Seattle also announced a similar initiative for tracking ICE agents within the city of Seattle. So, failing to use a heavy hand in Minneapolis on the counterinsurgency, counterterrorism side of things is a management decision that can be debated. That's fair because there are good points for and against being heavy-handed, right? But in the context of what's going on around the country, it's become quite clear that a large percentage of the country are actual, no kidding, terrorists and insurgents. Again, not in the sense of I'm just going to be hyperbolic and overly dramatic and, you know, slap a label on my political enemies. No, I I mean in the truest sense of the terms as demonstrated by violence. Now, what is the exact percentage of people who fall into this category? That I don't know. It's certainly not a majority, right? What we're seeing on the news and in these viral clips and in all the B-roll, this is again a minority. There are half a million people in Minneapolis and there aren't half a million people in the street protesting. There are a few thousand at most. So, we have to keep this in perspective and we have to kind of balance this out by understanding just how big these demonstrations are. No, they're not that big, but the fact that they exist at all is concerning. There are a lot of people in this country that look normal. They dress normal. They speak normally. They work a white collar job in a cubicle sipping from their Stanley mug all day. But privately they're in group chats where they're talking about planning IRA style car bombings on people that they don't like and calling for the murder of innocent people, right? And they're doing so because they get a thrill out of it. That's a concern, right? And these people walk amongst us. So the chosen course of action is to back down, deescalate, and pretend that it isn't happening. President Trump made the tough decision to deescalate, which was his decision to make. But it's also a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation, which he put himself in by not shutting off the funding to groups that he had already designated as domestic terrorist organizations. There's a reason that everybody in the no is talking about funding. And even though funding is not the whole story, right? Shutting off the funding is not going to stop all of this, right? But it'll shut down a good chunk of it, right? And now because they're not doing that, the chickens have come home to roost and we're going to witness the fallout of this situation escalating. Now New Jersey, California, Ohio, Maine, and Wisconsin, the other major insurgent strongholds, they all now know where the line is. And that line is that they can openly rebel against the federal government and use state resources to do so. And I don't mean in the cool and based don't tread on me down with the ATF and taxes kind of rebellion. Nah, not the cool stuff. No Siri, Bob. I mean the rebellion where they set people on fire in the street and drag kulocks out of their homes and shoot them. This is something that the political right would be wise to observe. The communists are openly playing to libertarian emotions so as to trick red-blooded Americans into thinking that this is about freedom and liberty and freedom of speech and things like that when in reality it's quite literally just a genocidal communist uprising. That's all it is. And the part that concerns me is that Minneapolis proved that the state and local governments got their activist goons to target anybody and everybody in the street. And for me, that's unacceptable. We do not do that in America. We do not let state sponsored terrorists go around targeting innocent people. This is no longer a political issue or an immigration issue or a difference of opinion. We are to protect the innocent from harm. And if that means the feds coming in and cracking skulls, so be it. We cannot allow roving bands of insurgents to continually harass people every day simply because of the way they are dressed and what car they drive. Unacceptable. So for everybody complaining about me dedicating so much time to Minneapolis, this is why you think Minneapolis was bad. Locals will confirm that what we've seen so far is really nothing. Both by comparison to George Floyd, for one, that was a pretty crazy time. But also today, what we're seeing is not nearly as bad as it could be. These people are absolutely chomping at the bit to turn Minneapolis into Fallujah. They are literally telling you this out in the open using these exact words. But this is just one city. How about another city? What about Milwaukee? There are vastly superior agencies and organizations operating there that make Defense 612 look like a cakewalk. What about another city, Philadelphia? Well, that city has added in the Socialist Rifle Association and other armed communist groups in addition to various offshoots of the Black Panther Party. Granted, it's hard to look at these guys seriously because every photo and video they take elicits a hearty chuckle, but still. And I don't know about anybody else, but I don't plan on getting a Darwin award by underestimating these guys. I'm not going to put them up on a pedestal as some kind of elite fighting force, but these more armed communist groups, which openly state that they want to kill us, are certainly a concern which is only growing by the minute now that state governments and very large NOS are funding them. But again, taking all of this into account, we have to keep the grand strategy in perspective, too. Neither Minneapolis nor any of the other cities mentioned today are at the stage of a full-blown insurgency yet. But in all of these cities, there are zero barriers impending the progression toward this eventuality. Many people might think that a full-blown insurgency would progress directly from civil unrest, like one will morph into the other. However, in many cases, it would really be hard to imagine that anything is wrong just by looking at society, right? Even in Minneapolis, the epicenter of the recent unrest, life continues on, and most of the time, it's hard to imagine that there's anything out of the ordinary, with the exception of the protest hotspots around the city and the idiots driving around the city in a hatchback with a whistle, right? But for the most part, it just looks like regular daily life in a city. This is what many insurgencies will end up looking like. The waters of society appear to be still, but terrorism bubbles beneath the surface, ready to strike at any time and place. Toning down the riots and deescalating the immigration scene in Minneapolis will not solve the other issues. Nor will these groups just go away. We have to plan for that and start thinking about how to get out of this mess. So, that's the key takeaway for today. The situation is not all bad, but it would be very foolish to start infighting the reasonable men who are now starting to have to do things that aren't even unreasonable. They're just gritty and unfortunate. But the work carries on regardless. The feds have their role to fill. So do the actual terrorists in society. And the more deliberate and prepared citizen has their job to do as well. It just turns out that for some of us, it's quite a challenge sometimes. So, for those of you who are in that situation and just want to be left alone like I do, just know that I'm in the foxhole with you and they've got us surrounded on all sides. Those poor bastards, as the old saying goes, at least. So, let's get after it and do the best that we can. It'll all work out in the end. And in the meantime, we'll work very hard to move the needle back toward propping up civilization instead of tearing it down. We've been tearing things down and tearing ourselves apart for far too long. So, it's about time we start building things back up. And speaking of civilization, to segue into the ghost net reports for this week, my local area has been, in a word, apocalyptic. I'm all snowed in for a few weeks and incessantly transmitting on the Ghost Net for anyone else out there who might be in a similar boat. Most of the American Southeast has received legendary amounts of snow over the past week or so. And as I'm recording this, it's still coming down out there pretty heavily. So for anyone out there who's also snowed in, it might be a good time to check out the Ghost Net and see if you can at least get a receive only arrangement going. I have a plethora of tutorials in the Ghost Net playlist on my YouTube channel. And you don't need to buy anything to get started. You can test it out and get familiar with the software and such, all for free using the internet to pick up radio messages such as these. Turns out, if you can't afford to buy a fancy HF radio, there's a bunch of people online who stream their radio over the internet, so you can use theirs instead. In fact, most of the time when I'm uh trying to get screenshots for this particular slide every week, I don't actually use my own radio to get these screenshots. Most of the time, I'm using the ultra basic and free methods that I have tutorials for and using an internet-based radio to pick up messages well outside my local area. You don't need to be an expert or even know what you're doing to get started. And this is just one way among many to have an alternative way of exchanging information with others in a manner that's really hard to censor or take offline. So, that's all I have for today. Thank you all for sticking around, and we'll see what next week brings. I have been crunching a lot of data, typing a lot of video scripts, and trying to surge another burst of helpful stuff now that I've gotten my uh daily report video editing ironed out a little bit better. I could not have done hardly any of this without you guys sticking with me, and I'm eternally grateful for that. So, thanks again, and I'll see you next time. And as always, fight in the shade.