The Other Side of COIN: Analyzing Civilian Cities (ASCOPE and PMESII)

foreign [Music] now that we have a broad understanding of intelligence preparation of the battle space we can dig a bit deeper into the first step defining the operational environment specifically what if your operational environment is a civilian city today we're going to cover a scope and pamisi two processes that are used by military intelligence to analyze a largely civilian populace this process can be useful to a civilian group as well but in my opinion the biggest value that this has has to be the prepared citizen knowing how the whole process works just in case you need to know this information in the future once we go through this process you will hopefully understand what I mean and things will become a little bit more clear but first what is a scope and pamisi a scope is an acronym intended to categorize the more human attributes of an operational environment usually from a counter-insurgency perspective pamisi or pomeessi however you want to say it is a way of expressing these six different domains of operational variables for a specific Mission now to me that's a whole lot of work that don't really say anything at all fantastic for a staff college but not so great for for a specific Mission now to me that's a whole lot of work that don't really say anything at all fantastic for a staff college but not so great for understanding what it actually means so let's break this down even more simply a scope stands for areas structures capabilities organization people and events pamisi stands for political military economic social information and infrastructure these are two acronyms that are technically completely separate processes that can be conducted on their own you can do one or the other or both but more often than not we see these two combined to form a type of Matrix that looks like this from here we can begin filling out the first blocks with some more specific information for example in this first block we need to consider areas that are related to politics this would include things like political boundaries and party affiliation areas as we can see this whole process is really just a way to help us organize our thoughts so that we don't forget something as we have learned from the Intel cycle and ipb most analytical tricks are pretty much just simple ways to organize stuff so that that you don't forget something a scope and bemisi is no dif and ipb most analytical tricks are pretty much just simple ways to organize stuff so that that you don't forget something a scope and bemisi is no different just one way to make sure you've got everything covered so let's continue and fill out the rest of the chart with some things you probably want to include in your own Matrix if you're using this yourself starting off with the first one we've already covered that the first block is political areas such as political boundaries and party affiliation areas this helps us understand what the voter demographics are like in a particular area where a particular block of Voters is concentrated stuff like this on a personal note right up front as an analyst that left the game many years ago I personally can't really see much military value in voter registration areas but it's on the chart and cemented in military Publications so you can form your own opinion on that a far less dubious use of this block is to delineate political boundaries such as the lines on a map these are technically called political boundaries since this Doctrine was developed with a middle east counterinsurgency in mind this also applies to tribal areas and territory ed political boundaries since this Doctrine was developed with a middle east counterinsurgency in mind this also applies to tribal areas and territory things like that moving on to the military areas block we're looking for things like bases staging areas firing ranges testing areas for weapons and things like that really any large area that has a military use this block is also used to designate historic Ambush sites and IED locations again pointing to the counter-insurgency uses of this process from our wars in the Middle East the US military learned far too late that insurgents would frequently use the same sites again and again for IED attacks and ambushes this is usually because that particular spot kept being fruitful so as long as Americans were willing to step into the Kill Zone the insurgents would keep using that same exact site these are the things we need to think about in terms of areas key terrain things like that moving on to economic areas we're thinking large concentrations of an economy right large shopping districts large marketplaces malls not a specific business per se but an actual like commercial area of a city it's simple enough any location that has an impa large marketplaces malls not a specific business per se but an actual like commercial area of a city it's simple enough any location that has an impact on the local economy or where Commerce is conducted every city even from the smallest Village all the way up to the largest just mega cities in the world have a commercial District right the reason we need to know this is both for Noble and kind of Nefarious means if we want to wage war in an area we may want to avoid bombing civilian economic zones so that when the war is over civilians aren't left with nothing this was a huge part of World War II if we remember and exactly why at the end of the war Adolf Hitler ordered Albert Speer specifically to destroy everything that could be useful to the Soviets regardless if that would mean the mass starvation of the German people now historically we know that our spirit did not end up going through these wishes so a lot of the German economy that Hitler specifically ordered destroyed but was not actually destroyed but you get the point in a case of Total War things change but in terms of a very limited war or a small Invasion or something like that or a counter Insurgency we need to know case of Total War things change but in terms of a very limited war or a small Invasion or something like that or a counter Insurgency we need to know where the economic areas are of a Nation so that when you know the insurgents are ousted or when basically the bad guys are are no longer a factor anymore civilians can return to normal self civilian life on the other hand and again the more nefarious reason is in a situation of Total War if we need to go scorched Earth and basically destroy everything vital for life in an area the targeting guys need to know where the main economic hubs are to more easily strike them so again a dual use for this particular block as we will find out as we go along through this process a lot of these blocks can have a more benign use and a more nefarious use the the Dual use nature of a lot of this information can become a point of consternation for analysts so so we'll get more into that at the end and I'll share my thoughts on that but I just want to make it clear that despite what the manuals tell you there is always a more nefarious use for pretty much all of these boxes moving on to social areas we're thinking things like Parks public spaces Gathe there is always a more nefarious use for pretty much all of these boxes moving on to social areas we're thinking things like Parks public spaces Gathering sites large places where large groups of people gather again a very broad category but useful for understanding the local Hangouts in a particular area this is again helpful for determining soft targets that insurgents or anybody else is likely to go for moving on to information areas we're talking really any physical location where information is exchanged again this can be a public place as well so there's a lot of overlap and in the third world this may be a little bit easier to Define but for the Western World usually what we mean for this is stuff like Radio Networks TV and news sources local newspapers or propaganda production facilities and of course social media a lot of this can be put in this box or the next one which is infrastructure areas for this one we're thinking more along the lines of Pol or petroleum oil and lubricant production facilities Rail Yards pipelines industrial large industrial districts right even large medical centers can be put here as well a lot of cities in the United States at least have like a ustrial large industrial districts right even large medical centers can be put here as well a lot of cities in the United States at least have like a medical quarter right where if there's a large teaching University there a good chunk of a city will actually be like a teaching hospital and that can Encompass an entire District right the reasoning behind why we care about these types of areas both the information and the infrastructure ones is just basic War Fair stuff if you're going to invade somebody take out or capture the information sector first preferably with the local power grid too remember during the Gulf War January 17 1991 four F-117 Nighthawk stealth aircraft were used to conduct surgical strikes in Baghdad taking out the power to the city and by default the radio and television broadcast capability it's pretty hard to issue a general Call to Arms and coordinate a city-wide defense if the utilities are out thus knowing where these places are located and the areas the whole District it kind of supports these sites is important moving on to structures first up we have political structures this is really easy basically Town Halls administrative offices it really any gove rtant moving on to structures first up we have political structures this is really easy basically Town Halls administrative offices it really any government building the importance of this is fairly obvious but pretty much every military operation that has ever been conducted has targeted governmental structures due to their importance speaking strictly of Civilian governance structures that have little to no military value these places are also frequent targets due to being centralized points of power and control for a region or a city up next are military structures for this one we're talking physical buildings on a military base or in a civilian City things like military police checkpoints physical pinpoint locations like headquarters buildings and things like that you could even put airfields if you want note that in this box we're being a lot more specific in the military areas box we noted entire bases or entire physical areas right whereas here we're talking pinpoint locations that can be designated by a single grid coordinate but of course there's a lot of overlap such as like an Airfield right would that be a point location or a military area you know it's kind of a big Ta but of course there's a lot of overlap such as like an Airfield right would that be a point location or a military area you know it's kind of a big Target but there are specific buildings on an Airfield really that's up for you to decide how you want to put it on the chart up next are economic structures for this we're thinking things like stock exchanges Banks and markets also in today's world data centers where financial data is stored again we're looking for specific buildings where this activity is conducted physical server location patients or physical buildings not just a whole commercial District if you're feeling froggy this could also include websites and other stuff from the Cyber realm but again it's up to you moving on to social structures for this we're thinking things like churches bars and clubs Cinemas or movie theaters large auditoriums or large venues even stadiums if you want really any physical structure that is primarily used for social reasons again the reason for knowing about these places can be innocent or nefarious we can list these in order to avoid striking them or we can list them to eventually strike them specific locations like individual buildings ar arious we can list these in order to avoid striking them or we can list them to eventually strike them specific locations like individual buildings are also preferable for intelligence collection it's easier to get a few minutes of Drone footage of a specific building than it is to scan an entire public park it's easier to park a surveillance van outside of a church than it is to surveil an entire District right it can be and it has been done but it's a lot easier to go for pinpoint targets versus entire areas up next are information structures for this we're thinking cellular or TV Towers internet data servers or data storage sites even things like old school print shops right like your old school Kinkos right television or radio Studios the specific places where that content is recorded or distributed from again there's a lot of overlap with the information areas category so pick and choose what best exemplifies pinpoint locations and physical structures that are primarily used for the exchange of information in this block we can also start to think about a line of site analysis for specific radio towers or repeaters like who can actually hear a radium message that is being trans so start to think about a line of site analysis for specific radio towers or repeaters like who can actually hear a radium message that is being transmitted by this specific Tower we can even select certain Towers to preserve from being struck so that we can collect intelligence from those Towers this of course is a separate process but we can plant the seed here during this step moving on to infrastructure structures again a lot of overlap with the previous infrastructure block like other categories I prefer to use this block to delineate specific structures instead of entire areas for instance a city's industrial district is pretty big stick so that would go in the area box but a specific Factory that is used for a military purpose well that can be described by a single grid coordinate so it goes on the map for this block exact grid coordinates of crude oil wells or actual like pumping stations along a pipeline or even the pipeline itself that's you know a line it's not exactly a point target but it could easily be put on a map as well same thing with electrical substations or power generation facilities roads Bridges tunnels large walls or dams basically anything that is importa ell same thing with electrical substations or power generation facilities roads Bridges tunnels large walls or dams basically anything that is important to infrastructure can go on the map using this block moving on to capabilities uh first off we're going to start with political capabilities this one's a little bit more abstract really we're looking for stuff like dispute resolution capabilities if a conflict were to start like a social conflict were to start in an area How likely are local politicians able to kind of wrangle the the issue and kind of you know resolve that dispute this kind of goes into the the flavor of counter Insurgency again in because we can also use this to start talking about Insurgent motivation and ideology right what do they believe in what do they think why are they motivated to be insurgents stuff like that here's where we can also start to think about specific power players in an area and the political weight they carry not necessarily a specific person we'll get to that in a minute but we're talking about local political parties like are the local politicians as a whole are they loved or they hated by the populace basically if a local political movem ut local political parties like are the local politicians as a whole are they loved or they hated by the populace basically if a local political movement were to resist military action against them How likely would they be to be able to raise a military force of their own that's that's mostly what we're trying to get at here this also helps to determine which political parties or movements will be able to be influenced by the US Military and by default it also helps to determine the political movements that will not be friendly towards U.S military policy and influence moving on to military capabilities basically how capable is the military force in this area what are their strengths and weaknesses and what is their local military security posture remember this is a very basic overview not a complete rundown so feel free to keep things at the way of top level very very broad what kind of force are we dealing with here is it a local warlord in a third world country or maybe a small corrupt government in Eastern Europe or maybe even a near peer threat this is kind of the broad topic that we're looking for here we could spend a lot of time getting down into the weeds in this category ear peer threat this is kind of the broad topic that we're looking for here we could spend a lot of time getting down into the weeds in this category but we don't need to for now moving on to economic capabilities we're trying to find out is this area host to a thriving economy or is it in the gutter how easily can citizens access their Banks and and withdraw cash what is the value of the local currency or is inflation a huge part of daily life for local citizens is a large portion of the population out of work or is forced to work abroad to send money back home knowing and listing this information is important for stuff like stability operations basically if the US military has to come in and keep everyone from killing each other a lot of the conflicts around the world are the result of a poor economy so no one about the economic situation on the ground is important a bit more nefariously the other side of that coin is that knowing about the economic capabilities of an area makes it easier to take a bad economy and utterly it if the economy is in an area that is barely hanging on by a thread a single air strike on a power station or a factory can decimate a local area and force al economy is in an area that is barely hanging on by a thread a single air strike on a power station or a factory can decimate a local area and force all of the locals to leave to prevent starvation it's a bit horrific to think about but this is modern war moving on to social capabilities again a more dubious category but how strong is the local cultural identity what is the nature of the local identity is it nationalistic tribal more more religiously motivated or some kind of other ideology right are the locals strong and cohesive behind this local identity are they United together with a shared sense of purpose right we're mostly looking to generally understand a culture at this step but in doing so we're always keeping the military objectives in mind are there vulnerabilities in this social identity that can be exploited can tribe be turned against tribe can a social identity be fractured along fault lines established by historic differences in culture race or tribe will people band together in this area to resist military action against them or will they remain divided along cultural lines militarily speaking a divided population is great for military action but a strongly United inst them or will they remain divided along cultural lines militarily speaking a divided population is great for military action but a strongly United populace with a strong and independent culture these are the people that have toppled Empires so that's important to understand moving on to information capabilities how easily can citizens access true information what is the literacy rate for the local populace and How likely is the population to seek out alternative media sources do citizens possess counterintelligence capabilities and if so how advanced are they in this category it's important to understand what cultural differences make it difficult to influence the information space if we again remember back to World War II Germany had a really hard time getting intelligence networks up and running in the United Kingdom meanwhile the UK had little trouble sending Spies all over german-occupied territory and in turn the Soviets were able to infiltrate the highest levels of the British government relatively easily as well the reasons behind this rather interesting history are many and widespread but one of the main reasons is that local populations were simply able to pick out Spa behind this rather interesting history are many and widespread but one of the main reasons is that local populations were simply able to pick out Spas more easily the more well-known examples of this are America's forays into southeast Asia from Japan to Korea to Vietnam it is pretty hard for a six foot white guy to blend in and pretend to be a rice farmer in Asia it just didn't work out that well this is why during the Vietnam war in particular the success rate for a prisoner of war who escaped and actually getting back to American lines that was uh that was very hard to do right so this is the kind of thing that we need to consider for this block as well how well how easily can a local population spot a lie and how easily can they access true information moving on to infrastructure structure capabilities how capable are locals when it comes to maintaining their own infrastructure can they build their own roads or do they need someone to come in and do it for them also if Bridges and roads were knocked out militarily how capable and how quickly can they be repaired by locals on a good day does every local citizen have access to electricity or is it only parts of a community or pe how quickly can they be repaired by locals on a good day does every local citizen have access to electricity or is it only parts of a community or people along major roads if the power were to be knocked out would people even recognize this as a hostile act or would they just think it's a regular Tuesday moving on to organization first up we have political organization in this phase we're going for broad brush Strokes right we'll get to individual people next for this step we need to know about the networks themselves what are the primary political parties or political movements within an area and what do their networks look like what are the large power bases what are the powerful institutions supporting large groups of people right remember we're looking to keep things relevant to a military operation it really isn't helpful to list basic political facts like how each chamber of a parliament is laid out that doesn't really help us that much what we're really looking for is points of future exploitation vulnerabilities or even preconceived notions that can be taken advantage of for instance if one political party is well known to be corrupt and unlikable maybe finding an alternat nceived notions that can be taken advantage of for instance if one political party is well known to be corrupt and unlikable maybe finding an alternative party to clandestinely support would create enough conflict between a government to divide military forces in other words if a dictator is having to deploy significant numbers of troops to intimidate voters on Election Day then those troops are not doing something else right opportunity cost which leaves vulnerabilities elsewhere all of this can stem from Simply knowing the culture of local politics so again planting the seed now during this step is worth thinking about up next is military organization we're looking for again broad brushes the the type and composition of military units what is their ration strength how many troops are they supposed to have and what is their current strength how many troops do they actually have we can really get into the weeds here so we got to be careful to keep things light for now most of your time spent during ipb or ipoe or whatever will be focused on this anyway but remember for now we're thinking about the civilian populace of a particular area moving on to economic organization what are th sed on this anyway but remember for now we're thinking about the civilian populace of a particular area moving on to economic organization what are the local business alliances are there any trade unions or any other ways that businesses are banding together like in a Coalition in an area same with Finance are there any Financial clubs or institutions that have a hierarchical organization and if so what is that organization how does it set up what is the arrangement of wealthy landowners in an area are they wealthy due to Something in the community which is a commonality such as agriculture or mineral wealth and is this something that can be exploited to cause divisions among civilian leadership these are the things we're thinking about for this category moving on to social organization it's a similar category but more along the lines of social influencers instead of Finance we're not really looking at this phase for specific social media influencers or local celebrities but really the networks that they operate in things like prominent local families tribes and clans even youth groups which might be important to know about for Warfare reasons such as the Boy Scouts as horrific as nt local families tribes and clans even youth groups which might be important to know about for Warfare reasons such as the Boy Scouts as horrific as it sounds the unfortunate truth is that youth groups have historically played a role in situations of Total War religious groups and leadership are also considered in this box how are religious groups organized and what is their sense of Duty to each other several religious groups Place great value on preparedness autonomy and living off the land can these groups be exploited in some way or would they be a threat to military forces in the area by and large do any of these people have any substantial organization which can be exploited militarily or which may be a threat to military operations down the line again I personally have many thoughts on this particular process but we'll get to those later up next is information Organization for this one we're talking again social media networks but mostly things like group texts and Communications Networks how are Radio Networks and area set up are there large amateur groups that we can exploit and take advantage of and and get to work for us right are there different kinds of influencer cre are there large amateur groups that we can exploit and take advantage of and and get to work for us right are there different kinds of influencer created networks so we can also lean on right social media influencers that can create their own communities and do what we want we can also consider traditional media TV news radio things like that that can do our bidding as well moving on to infrastructure organization we have things like government committees City councils County Commissioners even large construction companies and conglomerates that are very heavily embedded in government things like real estate development usually throughout the United States at least a large portion of City Council Members County Commissioners are very heavily invested in the real estate community so that's a huge thing to consider as well how how the organization of these is all set up next we move on to people the movers and shakers of each domain of warfare so very quickly we can start with political people against specific politicians their families and their staff their staff is very important as well in more tribal communities Elders or other respected individuals in a community or even things s and their staff their staff is very important as well in more tribal communities Elders or other respected individuals in a community or even things like wealthy influencers right or military people we're thinking military leadership uh generals a general staff officers and ncos and in more third world situations even religious clerics that may take on a more military role right for economic people we're thinking bankers and financiers uh wealthy landowners merchants and shopkeepers or even small business owners right for social people we're thinking religious leadership social media influencers celebrities this is sort of related to the next one which is information people I know a lot of people get their news from celebrities so there's a lot of overlap there right but for this one we're thinking specific people again not just a news network but actually the face that's in front of the camera prominent news anchors independent journalists are a big one here uh also religious clerics uh celebrities podcasters really anybody with a large social media following that is a an individual visual person and finally infrastructure people basically the people that keep infrastructure fro large social media following that is a an individual visual person and finally infrastructure people basically the people that keep infrastructure from crumbling Builders construction workers Engineers uh maintenance Personnel uh even emergency service Personnel can fit here as well for the people category the the overall theme is pretty simple from a military perspective all of these people are potential Targets later on down the line either straight up kinetic targets or targets for collection deception propaganda or other means of exploitation the manuals leave this part out but the implication is there military forces are not learning about a civilian populace they're not learning about key leaders in an area to better understand their culture to hold hands and sing Kumbaya no militaries conduct Warfare and if we do away with the political correctness military leaders need to keep tabs on individual local civilians to know who's going to help them and who's going to get in their way and who's going to be a potential Target later on down the line again not pleasant at all to talk about but it's the truth wrapping things up with events we've got political events which are things n down the line again not pleasant at all to talk about but it's the truth wrapping things up with events we've got political events which are things like elections obviously Council meetings town halls or even things like political holidays or Seasons we also have military events things like military exercises military holiday parades you know Grand displays of of power projection right uh even things like mobilizations or unit training schedules or deployment rotations or even the schedules of operations we also need to consider economic events uh with this one we're thinking things like droughts and floods or even Harvest and planting Seasons we can also think more broadly like economic recessions and depressions for a for a whole region really but we can even think as small as operating hours for merchants or banking holidays remember a lot of events have occurred right before banking holidays or right before major holidays remember the colonial pipeline was taken offline right before Mother's Day weekend right a big travel holiday for the United States where a gasoline shortage was created so this is the kind of thing that we need to think about and that's why it's important i y for the United States where a gasoline shortage was created so this is the kind of thing that we need to think about and that's why it's important important also social events like holidays weddings religious Seasons or events these are great times for military targeting of particular targets right because we know where a person is going to be also information events like propaganda campaigns deception operations even things like bad press events or or intelligence leaks these are things that are are very important to keep uh to keep the tabs on and finally infrastructure events things like Road or Bridge construction or destruction scheduled or unscheduled maintenance or or even things like infrastructure attacks by keeping tabs on all of these kinds of events it's pretty handy to know if a detectable pattern emerges speaking from a counter-insurgency perspective a lot of times completely benign civilian practices can be misinterpreted as the lead up to an attack fighting seasons are usually focused around Harvest times or local holidays and other local holidays like the anniversary of an invasion can be a common time frame for an attack keeping tabs on local events is also help lidays and other local holidays like the anniversary of an invasion can be a common time frame for an attack keeping tabs on local events is also helpful for offensive roles as well if you know everybody in town is going to be at a certain place at a certain time on a certain day that's militarily useful even the Taliban in Afghanistan use this to their advantage during that war they knew that the a a the Afghan National Army celebrated Ramadan which meant that the a a dudes would be fasting throughout the day as part of their Islamic fate that's part of their their observations of the holiday therefore the Ana and most government workers within Afghanistan would be fasting and in a physically weakened State standing at a checkpoint in the desert in the boiling Sun without eating all day that's that's pretty difficult work right it's going to be very tiring but the Taliban since they were technically on Jihad they did not have to abide by the fasting rule so attacks on a a outposts were very common during Ramadan thus keeping tabs on even something as simple as a local holiday dietary restriction that's militarily important so that's the broad view of the whole process but there ar even something as simple as a local holiday dietary restriction that's militarily important so that's the broad view of the whole process but there are a few Variations by service branch that are worthy of note as usual military service branches interpret Doctrine differently as each service branch has a different mission one of the more helpful differences that I personally have observed comes from the Devil Dogs themselves the US Marine Corps places a scope before pamisi this is because they believe that a scope should be the absolute bare minimum in the event that you don't have enough time to run through the whole chart it's easy to run through a scope in your head and drop down some thoughts on a notepad five minutes before a briefing the Army also does this but in my own experiences the Marine analysts I've worked with have separated a scope out as its own thing more often than the Army does but your experiences may vary it's really just personal preference another difference to Marine's stress is within the capabilities category they use the acronym sweat MSO to describe the capabilities of a civilian populace this stands for sewer water electricity academics trash medical s y they use the acronym sweat MSO to describe the capabilities of a civilian populace this stands for sewer water electricity academics trash medical security and other this is pretty handy if you don't have time to work through each block when you land on the capabilities block of a scope you could just list each item in This Acronym and be good to go in the short term this is actually kind of easy if all you have is literally a three by five notebook in your hand you can literally just write sweat MSO on down the side of the paper and start writing out some things that you need to think about same thing with a scope you can do the same thing and for just a small bit of paper in your hand you can actually have a fairly good intelligence picture of a local area or at least you can get the ball rolling right Switching gears to talk about the differences the US Army brings to the table they sometimes do the opposite and go over panici first not a scope it should be noted that there are very wide variations in this I have seen some units only use a scope and I've seen other units only use pamisi and other units have used both using the chart that I've shown here so my own observations only use a scope and I've seen other units only use pamisi and other units have used both using the chart that I've shown here so my own observations have been a kind of a mixed bag also something that the Army does a specific to just the Army is ADD PT to pamisi to become pamisi PT as if this acronym wasn't nonsensical enough the P stands for physical environment and the T stands for time obviously we're meant to use these boxes as a way of kind of thinking about how does each one of the prior boxes change based on the physical environment and how does it change over time right so these are two more variables of warfare for you to consider and add to your chart if you are so inclined sometimes it's helpful sometimes it's not really but it's up to you if you want to do that but as always there are downsides to every process for those who don't understand how big of a deal this process is a scope and phamisi in particular are the lifeblood of the Army staff officer pamisi is to military staff officers as meetings about Synergy and vision are to corporate Executives in other words to a staff officer pamisi might as well be the word of God same thing with mdmp and other processes I sa on are to corporate Executives in other words to a staff officer pamisi might as well be the word of God same thing with mdmp and other processes I say this is partially ingest because a lot of people take this process way too seriously and they elevate this process to some mythical level like it's magic or something so some of the disadvantages I'm about to suggest some people might not agree with I don't mean to put so much weight on premisi as a process and I personally don't intend to take it that seriously but since everybody else does take it way more seriously than I personally think it should be I have personally witnessed a lot of people go obsessively overboard with this process so I kind of have to point out some of these downsides and kind of treat it like everybody else is treating it which is you know way more seriously than we probably should but here are some of the ways that this process sucks for one there's too much overlap uh it's too complicated and it tries to do too much A lot of times it feels like an acronym for an acronym's sake are we conducting an area study ipb or ipoe or whatever buzzword is next all of this stuff tends to blend together and it gets re or an acronym's sake are we conducting an area study ipb or ipoe or whatever buzzword is next all of this stuff tends to blend together and it gets really confusing and this process is not helpful for that for instance remember the debate about area versus structures what do I put in each box if I'm using each box as a metric for what to put on the map right because remember this is the first step of ipb this whole chart is being used to find things to put on a map so if that's the case what counts as an area versus a physical structure like an airport same thing with information structures or people like you you know there's so much overlap between most of these boxes that you really have to wonder if it's worth it in the long run sort of along the same lines there's just too much variation normally I would applaud the Department of Defense for creating a process that allows for variation however if the goal was to create an acronym that everybody can follow that mission failed everybody does a scope and pamisi so differently that it's not really accurate to even Nestle these processes under the same acronym it's like going to Italy and ordering pasta you know well there's like wh 's not really accurate to even Nestle these processes under the same acronym it's like going to Italy and ordering pasta you know well there's like what hundreds of kinds of noodles to choose from you know it's the same kind of idea here with pamisi granted defense leadership is trying to Grapple a really tough subject so I kind of feel for him there the dod is trying to take a subject which is really just basic critical thinking and they're trying to turn it into something that everybody can do even somebody that isn't great at critical thinking which is a respectable effort albeit a forlorn objective either way if you come at a scope or pamisi with the idea that this is a standard like the manuals tell you it is you will be sorely mistaken as this process in the real world is often not recognizable from one unit to the next another con is that it's slow it is true that proper analysis takes time and work expands to fill the time allotted right if you have an hour to work on this process it will be a lot more Bare Bones compared to the dissertation you might end up with if you were given two weeks to run through this process right some might say this is not really disadvantage thi he dissertation you might end up with if you were given two weeks to run through this process right some might say this is not really disadvantage this is just how the process works you know not every process that is in the Intel world has to be capable of being conducted from a foxhole some of this is okay to do at a headquarters right some of this a lot of this work has to be done from a higher level than say the Tactical level say like at the operational level you know so that's kind of okay if things are a little bit slower and it takes you a couple of weeks to get to a Target right but no matter how you slice it this process is just really slow and it's tedious and it's something that not really a lot of people want to do especially considering that you a lot of times don't really end up getting the gain that you hoped you might another problem is tunnel vision sometimes you might see this referred to as the silo effect right if you only focus on one attribute on the chart you tend to ignore the relationships and the overlap between each block this is most notable if you're working with a team and divide the workload up amongst yourselves now sometimes this can be a benefit so een each block this is most notable if you're working with a team and divide the workload up amongst yourselves now sometimes this can be a benefit sometimes one person is going to think of things that another person didn't so for for blocks that you have a lot of overlap with like for infrastructure areas versus infrastructure structures if you have two people working on a very similar block but they're technically working separately you might have people come up with things that the other guy didn't think of right so that's kind of an advantage however more often than not this ends up being a disadvantage because if you task one guy with the political stuff and another with military and another with economic and you work down the acronym right tasking out each letter each category to a different person you are not going to have a full understanding of how this stuff is linked together you're going to get a middle school level group project where everybody did their own thing but when you add it together it's nonsense and not useful imagine if a major Blockbuster movie had a different director for every single act of the movie right it would be a disjointed mess and that's a lot o imagine if a major Blockbuster movie had a different director for every single act of the movie right it would be a disjointed mess and that's a lot of times what you end up with if you end up dividing a workload so you will have put your entire team offline working on this BS process for very little gain and for a disjointed product that isn't helpful also sort of related to this idea is that if it doesn't have a a block on the chart you tend to forget about it this is a downside of pretty much every colorful chart that the dod uses if it's not on the chart it ends up being ignored or forgotten which is kind of a bad thing because this whole process is intended to help you remember things so you know that's not really a great outcome another con is that it's really tailored for counter-insurgency operations amongst a civilian populace as a result this process is assuming a lot if you are trying to get out of a counter-insurgency mindset or at least trying to not let the experiences of the past desert Wars influence your analysis too much this process will make it very hard to do that if you are conducting counter-insurgency operations in a third world Middle Eastern country this p much this process will make it very hard to do that if you are conducting counter-insurgency operations in a third world Middle Eastern country this process works wonders but if you are countering divisions of tanks from a nation state or otherwise fighting a near-pier war this process will not help you with the first step of ipb that much in that case you might even say it's a waste of time when you could be working on other analytical lines of effort other processes that we haven't talked about yet I don't care what the battle staff handbook says when you're stationed along a 12 mile front with only a single tank Battalion to hold it this process gets thrown right out the hatch another con which is kind of related to the purpose of the the whole process is that it's light on Military topics as this process largely centers on a civilian populace military topics tend to be less emphasized sure there is a military column but again it tends to be pretty broad you could pretty much apply every single block on this Matrix to a single military base and spend days doing it but that's not usually how this process is used this process is mostly used to analyze a civilian city which leads t tary base and spend days doing it but that's not usually how this process is used this process is mostly used to analyze a civilian city which leads to the next issue which is that it's hard to scale technically you could apply this process to a region or even an entire nation but really this is meant for an area of operations that is the size of a single city or town it's not as helpful for remote locations or super large cities but for a city like say Fallujah this process works pretty well but this makes it difficult to scale as needed if you have two cities in your area of responsibility you need to conduct this whole process separately for each town this can slow things down quite a bit especially if you're short on time another con which comes up quite a bit here at the end is relevance just because it's on the chart just because the chart tells you to put it on the map doesn't mean it's important you can put raw facts on the map all day long and you can use this nice little chart to do so but if they're not relevant to the mission what's the point of putting it on the map you can put raw facts on the map all day long and you can use this nice little chart to help you remembe ion what's the point of putting it on the map you can put raw facts on the map all day long and you can use this nice little chart to help you remember what to put on the map but if these facts are not relevant to the mission what is the whole point and to follow this Logic for a second if you are using critical thinking to reason and determine what's relevant to put on the map what's the point of the chart in the first place you've just used critical thinking to put something on the map that is meant to help those who don't necessarily have critical thinking skills it's the chicken versus the egg right so that's it a long drawn out overview of what a military analyst needs to think about when it comes to civil operations when a military force is going to conduct an operation in a civilian area this process is what is used by the military analyst during the first steps of ipb for that particular area this process also ties into met TC as well for Mission planning in that case this process is where non-intel Personnel can fill the role of an analyst if a military unit does not have any intelligence capability at the local level if they don't have an analyst in their unit this proces of an analyst if a military unit does not have any intelligence capability at the local level if they don't have an analyst in their unit this process allows them to at least have something to work from when operating in a civilian environment the main use of this process is to supplement other stuff you're working on it's a not horrible way to start ipb if you're working in a purely civilian environment and not explicitly conducting combat operation if you are working at a really low level like if you are the Intel guy for a company or even a platoon-sized element this process can help bring a more strategic overview to what you're doing so instead of chasing bad guys from building to building uh you can bring a bit more strategic organization to your efforts this can also help identify larger more General topics and and targets to plug into the Carver process if you're trying to narrow down where an adversary might attack or something like that it's really just another tool in the toolbox that can generally be useful to use in a civilian environment it's more of a means to an end rather than the end goal itself and no one is ever going to ask to see your a scope or permisi chart vilian environment it's more of a means to an end rather than the end goal itself and no one is ever going to ask to see your a scope or permisi charts right all in all it's helpful in some situations and if you have to it's easy to cut from your workload Without Really harming anything too much I personally just think that a lot of times this process suffers from a sort of usage Paradox like I hinted at before relevance is a problem this process is supposed to help with the first step of ipb however you pretty much have to conduct a good chunk of ipb to get the information for this process the books tell you that this whole process is just listing stuff on a slide or on a map but how is that any different from the bulk of ipb so is a scope or premisi the result of ipb or the first step of it on paper the difference seems very simple very clear-cut the book tells you that a scope and pamisi are simply lists of random facts no analysis just raw data but when applying this process in the real world when you get out of the classroom and you start actually working down this chart you find that you need to do an awful lot of analysis to figure out what's worth your time and what's worth you start actually working down this chart you find that you need to do an awful lot of analysis to figure out what's worth your time and what's worth putting on the map because the books also teach you to determine relevancy so the distinction between what's worth it and what's not is not so clear again the chicken versus the egg let me just break this down if I am in a tent in the woods and I'm running region-wide operations from a Mountaintop somewhere and I'm stuck in the the cold and in the rain with a real bad case of dysentery and I haven't had adequate food or water for months I'm not going to give a hoot about what anyone in a clean classroom environment has to say the process is developed in those kinds of environments tend to not be so useful I'm going to do what I need to do and figuring out the existential nature of The Human Condition just to make an acronym work isn't going to be high on my list of priorities I do not have time for a doctoral thesis but I also don't have time to make a complex situation on the ground fit nicely and neatly into a simple acronym some things can't be simplified and pamisi is one of those processes that ends up going by the wayside when t nicely and neatly into a simple acronym some things can't be simplified and pamisi is one of those processes that ends up going by the wayside when things get real what we in the Intel World call overcome by events in other words it doesn't matter anymore because we've moved on to something else and all that planning analysis you just did is obsolete because the situation has changed I know that I have a lot of harsh words to say about this process but I really am resisting the urge to say that this process seems like a classic case of an officer creating this process for a resume bullet point it probably started out with good intentions but rapidly became death by acronym I'm not going to fully commit to that idea I will admit it the thought has crossed my mind but I don't fully believe that uh because I will admit that there is enough usefulness here that somebody might find this process very helpful for remembering stuff and that's perfectly fine it's sometimes handy for thinking of stuff to put on a map during ipb but for me that's about all I use it for in the rare case I do use it because I personally don't like the process that much it just doesn't really fit my needs for t's about all I use it for in the rare case I do use it because I personally don't like the process that much it just doesn't really fit my needs for the stuff that I do day to day and I think one of the main reasons that I don't like this process is that it is developed entirely with the concept of counter Insurgency in mind and I get it I really do in the early days a lot of dudes got killed because they forgot how unfriendly the civilian environment they were operating in was and they forgot something that ended up being a huge Factor when in combat this process was initially a way of mitigating that by encouraging troops to not just think of about the dude with the rifle but think about the network and the environment that's supporting him however the desert counterinsurgency Wars are largely over and that Doctrine is looking for a new home which these days makes me a little nervous and this is why as much as I don't want to we have to talk about this for a bit these days any analytical process that is used by military forces to deal with civilians calculating the capabilities of a civilian populace and looking for exploitation opportunities ah that gives me the creeps and I pe eal with civilians calculating the capabilities of a civilian populace and looking for exploitation opportunities ah that gives me the creeps and I personally don't like it I wish that wasn't the case but it is I mean if you did not feel creeped out by some of the things I've said today to describe this process I'm not sure what to tell you because some of this stuff is is it's pretty dystopian to think about right up front I fully recognize that the events of the past couple of years have colored my thoughts on this process but it's not something I can personally ignore at this point even five or so years ago I would not have this view on things I don't think I would look at things this way uh but today I do I would absolutely love to separate the doctrine from the reality of what's going on in the world but but I think that would be a disservice honesty is never a Bad Thing even if it's what people don't want to hear who knows honesty might just be one of the reasons that somebody chooses to do the right thing this process is one of those things that was developed for small Middle Eastern Villages that nobody cares about places where it's easy for soldiers to separate themselves those things that was developed for small Middle Eastern Villages that nobody cares about places where it's easy for soldiers to separate themselves from the population either intentionally or simply due to purely innocent cultural differences but when you superimpose this Doctrine on a domestic U.S population the table's turn don't they seeing as how things are going here domestically in the U.S right now uh I don't really appreciate how citizens are sometimes on the receiving end of this process though I hope this is not done it makes me quite uncomfortable to know how easily and seamlessly this process could be used to analyze my local community here at home though many military processes can potentially be used on civilians this process in particular was designed from the ground up for civil Affairs you can Church it up all you want but the unfortunate truth is that this entire process is assuming an adversarial relationship between a military and a civilian populace it just is and a lot of the analysis that is required for this process is quite unethical I mean war in general is unethical but man if you find yourself spying on religious leaders with the intent to figure out h process is quite unethical I mean war in general is unethical but man if you find yourself spying on religious leaders with the intent to figure out how much power they have in their community and how much they would be able to Rally people to defend that Community you really have to wonder if you're on the right side of History you can make it seem less nefarious by leaving out a lot of details right the military manuals only talk about the purely innocent parts of of this Doctrine but again the implication is there there is another side to that coin and the ground truth cannot be ignored if somebody won't refuse an illegal order in peace time what am I supposed to think about the potential for this process to take the less nefarious route if conducted on an American city that little tidbit alone is going to influence everything I do in life for the foreseeable future because it's imperative of to understanding how the relationship between the military and we citizens has changed as a side note if someone considers that to be an inflammatory idea that has no place in Doctrine after all that has happened over the past couple of years I think that'd be very telling on the other hand ammatory idea that has no place in Doctrine after all that has happened over the past couple of years I think that'd be very telling on the other hand someone could argue that this process is entirely innocent and just a way to encourage military personnel to think outside the box and consider factors that are not necessarily related to the task at hand and that's all well and good I'm sure an awful lot of military leaders that ended up watching this video will think that I simply have a different opinion and I have a set of concerns that I believe is shared by millions of Americans and I have the experience to know how this process will get implemented in real life and not in an advanced leadership course I'm sure that there are a lot of people out there that have got things all figured out and they've got different views or different concerns about this process and that's great all I can do is talk Doctrine and share my experiences that point out some of the issues that others might come across such as the unique nature of this whole process a scope counter Insurgency stuff fine pamisi domains of warfare operational variables fine but you put them together in the civilian environ e process a scope counter Insurgency stuff fine pamisi domains of warfare operational variables fine but you put them together in the civilian environment under the banner of civil Affairs and that's one nefarious sounding Corner that's difficult to back out of maybe it's just me but speaking as I think a reasonable average person in 2023 who has lived through the past few years of Disturbing Behavior from many military leaders and units that's how I feel so for obvious reasons I think it's useful to know these tactics even if you don't intend to use them anyway it's a useful process in those terms though if you are a military force occupying or locking down a civilian City I'm sure this process works great and though this process probably isn't that useful for a prepared citizenry as it stands it is useful to know about just in case we have to fight in the shade