Afghanistan Update 28/29 Aug + Podcast

hello again everyone welcome back to the underground this is the afghanistan update for august 28th into the 29th uh this is probably going to be one of the last ones that we do as the situation is uh rapidly concluding for better or for worse so i just wanted to give a good solid update with what little information we have before things turned sour so as one might expect the hkai area security situation has deteriorated significantly we're continuing to see enduring threats of additional follow-on ied attacks that will continue as long as there are americans still in that country now as far as who who are actually committing these ied attacks uh if you ask the us government it's isis uh however being on the outside looking in a lot of people who are not familiar with how afghanistan works people will listen and they will listen to the the pundits on the tv when they say that the taliban and isis are enemies and that's largely true the taliban has been fighting isis for a very long time in afghanistan really ever since they popped up a few years ago however relationships in afghanistan like i mentioned days ago change with the wind and right now it would actually be a benefit for t a few years ago however relationships in afghanistan like i mentioned days ago change with the wind and right now it would actually be a benefit for the taliban to allow isis to attack the united states the only reason holding them back is the taliban allegedly based on all the books we've read and the pundits we've listened to well the taliban hate isis right well think about it this way so if the taliban let or facilitate isis to attack the americans what do they get okay well for one they make the united states look bad and for the taliban that's always been a goal of theirs okay what else do they get well they kill as many americans as possible again something the taliban would love to see and most importantly they don't get any of the blame so even though it might be an analytical leap to say that the taliban is working with isis to attack the americans that that might be a leap right now generally speaking it wouldn't be out of the question to consider it because here's the thing the taliban are the taliban they lie that's what they do anyone who trusts the taliban even a little bit on anything is a complete lunatic and it does not take a high-level analyst to figure this out they do anyone who trusts the taliban even a little bit on anything is a complete lunatic and it does not take a high-level analyst to figure this out this is common sense so we're of course going to continue to see these ied attacks up until the united states leaves we're probably going to see a lot more attacks on u.s personnel from isis or the taliban or whoever right who's to say that these so-called isis militants that are attacking the americans not the ones attacking the taliban but the isis militants attacking the americans who's to say they aren't taliban pretending to be isis so they can get through and kill americans and not get any of the blame for it as we're pulling out of the country okay they've done it before why who's to say they haven't they aren't doing it now i know again that's an analytical leap but i just want to throw that idea out there as an alternate explanation as to what's going on with these threats also moving on the withdrawal is concluding it looks like the united states will be out of hkia and out of the country long before the deadline now as things go on like we've mentioned on a few other platforms the updates are going to be few and far betwee the country long before the deadline now as things go on like we've mentioned on a few other platforms the updates are going to be few and far between mostly because we're getting into remote terrain we're getting into few fewer and fewer cameras around not as many reporters and it you know it's just not a good situation for finding out information in the ocean world and now that the taliban control a good portion of the perimeter around hkia that ability to gather information is is severely reduced also shifting forward into pan shearer we're going to talk about that mostly on the map um but the conflict in pants here is expanding but it's also contracting in certain areas so let's go ahead and jump over to the map and we'll talk about that all right so here on the map uh really not that much information that we even have at this point the taliban of control can now control a lot of the space i haven't been able to figure out exactly where the taliban positions are but we have been able to determine that this intersection right here is closed to traffic uh they've completely shut it down and their ecp has uh or their security checkpoint for the taliban has pushed out to somewhere is closed to traffic uh they've completely shut it down and their ecp has uh or their security checkpoint for the taliban has pushed out to somewhere over here possibly further up airport road but this road is completely clear of traffic due to the taliban this main gate is also completely closed to all traffic as far as we can tell you can read other ocean reports about which gates are still open at hkia from what we're seeing it looks like we're done it looks like that all the gates are closed and we're pretty much done here so let's go ahead and talk about pan shear for a bit because that's going to be a point of concern moving forward so pushing north into panshir here sorry the labels are not showing up here in wintec spectacularly well but this is pensier valley now the taliban have been massing down here in the south but i don't really want to use the word massing because we haven't seen very many uh soldiers staying here we we have gotten a few videos on social media from taliban account taliban social media accounts uh showing them in this general vicinity but again it's really hard to geo-locate because they're filming it on cameras from like 1998. uh also up here we've ng them in this general vicinity but again it's really hard to geo-locate because they're filming it on cameras from like 1998. uh also up here we've got limited reports of fighting going on uh the taliban are trying to mass up here in this valley called the uh coast guarang valley it's hard to even find it on a map but this is where it's at and they are pushing south uh to try to get into uh anjuman pass so they're trying to take out the northern alliance guys that are up and down this pansier valley they're trying to come in from multiple angles likewise earlier today or actually earlier yesterday over here in barakshan the taliban tried to push south again into panshir and they just got slaughtered they just got murked over 500 fighters reportedly uh were were massacred here by the northern alliance now when it comes to figures on fighting in afghanistan for those of you who do not know tribal conflicts in afghanistan are very unique and they're like nowhere else in the world and largely when you see figures of numbers if it's numbers from an attack or or numbers of kia or casualties the numbers are going to be wildly inflated uh favorite pastime of uh the various tribal groups ers from an attack or or numbers of kia or casualties the numbers are going to be wildly inflated uh favorite pastime of uh the various tribal groups in afghanistan is for both groups to launch a deadly battle against each other and they meet each other on the battle space right they meet each other in a valley or something like that and they both start shooting at each other from beyond the maximum effective range of both of their weapon systems so you've got dudes with aks shooting at each other from miles away and up and just spraying and praying you know at an enemy that's on the in the next valley over and nobody gets hurt nobody gets killed but both sides claim to have killed like hundreds of enemy fighters so it's really hard to tell without a specific video showing bodies as to how many people have been killed now i'm more inclined to believe that the northern alliance at this particular time has been devastating the the taliban as they move into the area because the taliban have not had time to kind of get around and get into a good fighting position to cut these guys off however the northern alliance from what we're seeing and from the talks from massoud himself it looks a good fighting position to cut these guys off however the northern alliance from what we're seeing and from the talks from massoud himself it looks like they're in the beginning stages of figuring out a surrender plan so it's still too early in the year for the the winter sort of drawdown and i don't think they're going to be able to hold out if they can hold out there were some reports earlier that uh the northern alliance were destroying bridges up and down the pansher valley that makes sense if you're trying to hold out to the winter time because this is very rugged terrain and if they blow the bridges they as they cross as they cross back up into the more remote areas they blow the bridges make it difficult for the taliban to advance and once the winter sets in it's going to be very difficult to weed those guys out of there however i don't know if they're going to be able to stand uh withstand the taliban up until that time it looks like they're probably going to end up surrendering very very soon and with the taliban massing in these different valleys and bringing up fighters from the south every single day along really the only road up into panshir it does not look good for these different valleys and bringing up fighters from the south every single day along really the only road up into panshir it does not look good for the northern alliance moving forward now there might be little pockets of resistance this is afghanistan right a lot of these guys have never really left their district their entire lives so of course there will be pockets of resistance even when the taliban was in power there were pockets of resistance all around the country and it's going to be hard to say are they going to mass forward and unite or or what a lot of this terrain is just too rugged to fight in for any major major fights right so it's going to be very small skirmishes and things like that so i guess we'll see how this shakes out but that's really all the information that we have right now uh we're still working on different options a lot of uh countries have have issued press statements about refugees we do know that the taliban control uh within significant numbers uh the afghan side of the twerkum gate so i mean it's really not good and then the road the only the only single road south which the taliban have known about for years like i mentioned uh is is very heav really not good and then the road the only the only single road south which the taliban have known about for years like i mentioned uh is is very heavily monitored by the taliban we know there are checkpoints all along this road down to the chaman crossing but we really don't know where they're at i'm sure the u.s military knows with all their classified information and their billion-dollar drones overhead but it's unlikely that they're going to pass that information to civilians at this point so again that's really all i have we're going to continue to develop out and see see if we can find things but really the situation is not looking super great and on the diplomatic and the political front uh even the social front things are not getting things are not super great right now so again we're posting all these products the ones that we think can help people get out uh without being a risk to them online and you can check these things out as time goes on but it looks like we're winding things down here uh when it comes to how effective we can be and again i wanted to show this slide again even though at this point it is a completely moot point and before we conclude for today i want we can be and again i wanted to show this slide again even though at this point it is a completely moot point and before we conclude for today i wanted to convey a few thoughts um i know that right now like i myself mentioned a while ago everyone on the internet has an opinion and not very many people want to listen to some random dude on the internet rant and rave about things but i do think that some of these thoughts might be helpful for people to hear or if maybe not helpful at least they might resonate with some people so the back end of this youtube video will be a sort of mini podcast on some ideas that i think are important we here always try to encourage different ways of thinking about an issue and what i have to say i think has some value for some we understand that since this afghanistan atrocity kicked off we've gotten a lot of new viewers and a lot of new people being aware of our organization such that it is this has happened many times before and it's nothing new we here see people come and go all the time we understand that in today's world there are consequences for having and expressing an opinion i am saying all of this in order to sort of set expectations and nd that in today's world there are consequences for having and expressing an opinion i am saying all of this in order to sort of set expectations and convey our goals our goals specifically with this afghanistan crisis are obviously to save lives but our goals are also to pick up the slack when the us government or the us military cannot complete the mission we've seen a lot of brave actions on the ground in afghanistan over the past week and a lot of things that are not being disclosed are purely insanely heroic but at the exact same time i myself am sick and tired of this mentality in which certain people think they have the monopoly on knowledge itself and right now we're getting to the point where the us government is not able to help but they also don't want anyone else to help lest god forbid something occur that they weren't expecting the brovet mentality has transitioned from an annoyance to something that is going to lead to more and more problems not just in afghanistan but throughout the rest of our society as well it's a small country and it's getting smaller and smaller with only a few ways out we cannot change geography and we cannot remove the knowledge of geography mall country and it's getting smaller and smaller with only a few ways out we cannot change geography and we cannot remove the knowledge of geography from the minds of malign actors they know the terrain they won the war right now with the country crumbling we have to weigh decisions we have to decide is a piece of information going to do more harm than good and right now opsec on most things in afghanistan is a completely moot point we of course need to be smart but we also do not need to smother the situation in opsec so much that we are doing more harm than good the taliban and isis know where the roads are they know where every culvert every drainage ditch every base every ambush site and every route out of the country is but the people that might need that information to escape do not it is not our fault that we lost the afghan war and it is not our fault that the us government and senior military leadership got us into this mess and it is not our fault that this operation was a fiasco right from the start with senior military officers on the ground being more concerned with getting into pissing matches with each other than actually solving the problem and you know what when t ficers on the ground being more concerned with getting into pissing matches with each other than actually solving the problem and you know what when the u.s forces leave it is highly likely that there will still be people on the ground who need to get out who's going to help them then is it going to be an analyst snuggled up in their skiff watching you vids and merc chat but not actually contributing anything to the mission because the guys with cry pants on hold the monopoly on the war the war that we ended up losing i have personally been to afghanistan very recently i know how the game is played when it comes to certain actors within that conflict the dunning-kruger effect is why we lost the afghan war i'll say that one more time for the people in the back the dunning-kruger effect is why we lost the afghan war there are a whole host of other reasons too but this one is the one that hits closest to home right now and right now it is also why a lot more innocent people are going to get killed before this is all over we will never forget that the united states and military leadership was always planning to leave people behind the only reason that evacuations were started in the fi rget that the united states and military leadership was always planning to leave people behind the only reason that evacuations were started in the first place is because the u.s military got caught trying to sneak out they never plan to evacuate any significant number of americans they plan to evacuate the embassy hop on a c-17 at h kaya and leave but they got caught and the videos of people falling off airplanes caused a pr disaster that forced the politicians and the military to act and that right there is something that both civilians and service members alike would do well to remember atrocities bring out the best and worst kinds of people and we ourselves have experienced far more of the latter than the former during this crisis the people that we expected to solve this problem have let us down the guys at the bottom of the totem pole in the military civilians and the kindness of strangers has saved more americans than anyone ever could have expected and since the afghanistan fiasco specifically the failures of leadership are becoming an allegory for problems here at home we should all do well to remember that the afghanistan disaster is a result of the concerns we've been ex coming an allegory for problems here at home we should all do well to remember that the afghanistan disaster is a result of the concerns we've been expressing for months and when this thing is over the problems within our institutions will still exist i know this is not a very nice way to end today's video but that's the mood for the week i guess the situation is raw and riddled with all kinds of emotions and our anger here is second to none and sometimes people have to get things off their chest sort of like what i'm doing right now i suppose but at the end of the day the world is a violent and nasty place and emotions do not solve many problems we can be angry at congress or the president or the taliban or isis but that anger does not change things like i mentioned in the regular intel brief from just a few days ago this afghanistan fiasco is bringing up a lot of stuff it's airing a lot of dirty laundry and these things are not pleasant to even think about much less talk about in the open so for those of you who have stuck around this far and have found this information to be useful thank you we are absolutely grateful for everyone who has stuck around and helped us out over the is far and have found this information to be useful thank you we are absolutely grateful for everyone who has stuck around and helped us out over the years especially as we have recently started taking on more projects and expanding into new areas we will continue to try to do good work in best way that we know how even if that work upsets a few people that would rather us not expose their incompetence or naivety remember just like i said a few weeks ago in the system that we have right now in the geopolitical and social and economic status that we have in the united states we cannot have anyone solving problems because solving a problem implies that a problem exists and we cannot have any problems in the current regime this kind of mentality and this idea is trickling down to institutions that we didn't think it would ever trickle down to not everyone has to agree with us nor would we ever want that a culture of yes men is directly responsible for part of the atrocities that have occurred at hamid karzai international airport we would also like everyone ourselves included to expand their thought process to include new ideas or alternative ways of thinking about a problem even if t d also like everyone ourselves included to expand their thought process to include new ideas or alternative ways of thinking about a problem even if that thought process leads us to thinking about things that we would rather remain blissfully ignorant of the times in which we live are tough they're only getting tougher so let's meet that challenge head on and try to do good things and with that that's all i have for today thank you again for everyone that has helped to get people out of afghanistan and thank you to the service members who have done their best during this fiasco despite the dangerous incompetence of their leadership and thank you to everyone out there who is facing insurmountable odds to make the world a better place so keep on moving forward and we will see you next time and as always fight in the shade