Ukraine War Update: The Invasion Begins

hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground so this is going to be a quick and dirty update uh for the 24th of february 2022 on the invasion of ukraine we are recording this at 0-100 juliet time which is eastern standard time and which is also the same as 0-800 bravo time which is ukraine's local time as usual most likely by the time this brief gets out things will have changed very drastically so as always take everything i'm about to say with a grain of salt because things could quite literally change in just a few minutes so let's get right to it i had planned to cover quite a lot of international events that have occurred in the past 24 hours we were right in the middle of actually finalizing a brief to push out because the invasion seemed quite imminent as it's already happening right now so what i'm going to do is not really talk about what has happened i'm going to talk about what is going to happen by the time most of you start watching this video so um by the morning of the 24th of february in the eastern time zones we fully expect a lot of things to happen roughly around the same time and that is really to to do with the financial markets uh right now we're a nes we fully expect a lot of things to happen roughly around the same time and that is really to to do with the financial markets uh right now we're already seeing specula speculative uh trading not looking super good so as one might expect invasion occurs markets crash right i don't know if it's going to be that magic c word the crash you know i don't know if it's going to be quantify or qualify as a crash but i would expect markets to dip quite significantly so pre-market trading has kind of indicated this already along with energy prices starting to skyrocket in various places around the world so just remember that if you see a lot of people you know spreading fear or you know the skies falling types of rhetoric in the financial sector on thursday morning uh just be advised this is to be expected uh no it's not good um russia openly declaring that they're invading another country and it's a full and total invasion it's you know it's not a minor incursion uh that's not good for markets obviously and um you know it's going to be a kind of a very turbulent time with that regard we're also seeing as anyone with two brain cells can see that cyber attacks will probably occur in variou nd of a very turbulent time with that regard we're also seeing as anyone with two brain cells can see that cyber attacks will probably occur in various places around the world we've already seen over the past week a lot of mysterious unknown actor cyber attacks occur in places like germany and ukraine and you know obviously ukraine and other nations around the world even here in the united states we had amazon web services go down right for no apparent reason so uh stuff like that's probably going to happen i don't know if it's gonna be like extremely dire nobody really knows nobody can guess how bad this stuff's gonna be but i would venture a guess this is just my gut feeling is that we're going to see a lot of cyber style events because vladimir putin has very much signaled that he is not interested in any kind of nato actions he's not interested in considering what nato might do with regards to ukraine he's just saying you know screw it invade fully right we went from this is just a drill right four or five days ago to now we're invading and we're going to demilitarize ukraine so that's kind of a huge jump in rhetoric and um vladimir putin has pulled out all of the stops i don't vading and we're going to demilitarize ukraine so that's kind of a huge jump in rhetoric and um vladimir putin has pulled out all of the stops i don't think he has done anything this significant in a long time this is even more more open uh and more um more dedicated than the original invasion of ukraine which was done with a lot of secrecy while the world didn't really care about it but anyway i'm digressing on that too much as far as sanctions from the west or what the west is going to do over the next few days first of all i would rule out any kind of of military action the united states nor the rest of europe is going to get involved in this conflict we're just going to watch it on cnn like everybody else militarily that is so we we've done everything we possibly could as a nation at the nation level to let the world know that we are not going to uh militarily intervene in ukraine beyond of course the the special dudes who are going to do what they do no matter what um but as far as conventional stuff no we're out we're done we're just gonna watch this on tv for the most part as far as sanctions goes anybody with again any common sense can see that sanctions are kind of laughab just gonna watch this on tv for the most part as far as sanctions goes anybody with again any common sense can see that sanctions are kind of laughable at this point but the united nations might give it a half-hearted effort but again i would not expect any kind of significant sanctions europe and the united nations as a whole is far too dependent on russia and russia is far too determined russia's determination to take ukraine outweighs the united nations give a damn factor if that makes any sense so the united nations has long been kind of recognized as being a useless entity other than the occasional um you know political moves and things like that but really for the most part sanctions wise we're not going to see too much we might we're going to of course see we saw the other day nordstrom 2 be sort of canceled but my guess is that nordstrom 2 will miraculously and quietly begin the process of being certified again after a few months after things have cooled back down and ukraine doesn't exist anymore but i guess we'll have to see on that so again not too much coming from the west not too much is going to come from the west we'll probably see as we have already seen every nato e on that so again not too much coming from the west not too much is going to come from the west we'll probably see as we have already seen every nato navy vessel is going to be on high alert and checking out what the russians are doing every military unit in europe is most likely on high alert right now but other than that we're not really going to see too much at least that's what we think moving on to the naval updates i don't have too much for the north sea i'm gonna have to come back to this one later in the med similar situation other than to again say that pretty much every single naval vessel in europe is on a high alert right now so um again things like this kind of bring up those old skull old school cold war mentalities of hey look when everybody's on alert at the same time we have the potential we have the potential for accidents and accidents are very dangerous in a situation like this right accidents can start things and start events into motion that spin out of control very quickly so we have to be mindful that even though the united nations and nato and the united states is not really going to do too much we also have to remember that everybody's on pins and needles ugh the united nations and nato and the united states is not really going to do too much we also have to remember that everybody's on pins and needles right now and the tiniest mistakes can have very long lasting effects so let's get to what everybody here wants to talk about and that is the combat actions that have taken place over the past few hours just a quick overview we are seeing uh combat actions occurring along all of the fronts including the moldova in front that didn't make it onto this slide but we just got the word in that explosions and and lots of combat actions are taking place in transnistria along that front as well so let's dive into each individual front and talk a little bit about each on the northeastern front a lot of the combat that has taken place over the past few hours has been in the vicinity of kharkiv we're assessing based on what open source information we can get which is very few and far between at this point that it looks like the russian russian forces were using vladimir putin's speech at 0-400 local time to conduct coordinated shaping fires along the entire front from kharkiv all the way down to the eastern front as well so we're seeing again ru l time to conduct coordinated shaping fires along the entire front from kharkiv all the way down to the eastern front as well so we're seeing again russia use pretty standard military tactics of before you roll your armor into the into a nation before you begin your invasion uh you use your artillery in this case russia's rocket artillery to uh conduct what's called pre-shaping fires right or some other term that i forget right in order to take out things like air defense right air defense is very crucial if you're going to be using a lot of helicopters and bomber aircraft so take out the air defense take out military targets such as command and control air fields that you're not planning on using later things like that in order to make sure that if the ukrainian air force can get off the ground they probably can't land again so this is something that russia has been doing over the past few hours and they have been using an impressive amount of artillery the ukrainian government has also confirmed that russian troops have been confirmed to be on the ground across the ukrainian border and armored columns are advancing on the city of kharkiv so we'll see how this works out again by t ed to be on the ground across the ukrainian border and armored columns are advancing on the city of kharkiv so we'll see how this works out again by the time this video goes out karkiv might be in a state of siege we don't really know how this is going to work again i just want to let you know that as of right now russian forces are advancing on kharkiv along the eastern front we have seen fighting uh taking place uh for many days now as you can see here we've been building this slide out because this has been building on the eastern front at least for a couple of days now fighting renewed around 24 to 48 hours ago and really along the entire eastern front combat actions were undertaken shelling very heavily with you know conventional howitzers and things like that a few occasional garage strike here and there but as of right now we're starting to see russian forces advance on the city of marapol so ukrainians have been observed to be engaged in combat in moropol i don't know right now if it's within the city or if it's still in the outskirts of marapol of course the russian pro-russian sources are claiming that marple's already fallen don't know about that haven't seen anything fr utskirts of marapol of course the russian pro-russian sources are claiming that marple's already fallen don't know about that haven't seen anything from the ukrainian side and probably won't but we'll have to call that there's also rumors right now again i should stress rumors that there are amphibious landings occurring in marapol that has not been confirmed we'll talk about the other amphibious landings that have happened but marapol again would be a prime target for amphibious landings but again misinformation is is just really way out of control from all sides on this so it's really hard to get a beat on what's actually going on moving down south the proverbial first shots of the renewed ukrainian invasion occurred at kalanchak specifically the kalanchak outpost which was hit at zero four zero four there's a screenshot of the ukrainian security cam that was online that allegedly captured the the opening salvos of that attack but since then we've confirmed that russian troops have been moving north through the crimean peninsula there also i should mention here on this slide odessa has been confirmed over the past few minutes here the ukrainian government has confirmed that the e re also i should mention here on this slide odessa has been confirmed over the past few minutes here the ukrainian government has confirmed that the essentially the entire ukrainian naval surface fleet has been destroyed in port in odessa and russian landing craft have made amphibious landings in the vicinity of odessa that's a big deal don't know where the where this occurred at uh we'll have to find out exactly where the landings occurred again don't know which ships uh took place in this landings i just put all of them here on the slide to kind of get everybody in the mindset of understanding how many landing craft russia has in this sort of theater and how many could be taking place in this amphibious landing so just to kind of give a rough idea but again we'll refine that once we know how many troops landed and where they landed at and what their goals are moving to the western front here in transnistria again not much to to know uh there have been confirmed to be lots and lots of air defense artillery firing lots of gunshots being heard by locals in transnistria don't really know what that's about don't know if this is an attack or it's one of those things where it's a fog of ng heard by locals in transnistria don't really know what that's about don't know if this is an attack or it's one of those things where it's a fog of war thing people are shooting things off because they think they're under attack i i don't really know transistory is pretty remote even the areas where russian troops have been known to to occupy it's a pretty low population area so um it's really hard to say exactly what's going on but my guess is by the time the sun starts coming up in earnest over there we'll get a better idea as to what's going on but again there really aren't that many troops in transnistria um they're definitely well i shouldn't say definitely there have been observed in the past to be around 5 000 russian troops those estimates came down a few years ago even as of last year some analysts were thinking it's like maybe even less than a thousand obviously if russia was planning this from the very start they probably would have funneled in a lot of troops into transnistria if they considered that to be an inadequate front but my guess at this stage my gut instinct is that transistory is really just an alternative front to keep ukrainians busy potentially a good s front but my guess at this stage my gut instinct is that transistory is really just an alternative front to keep ukrainians busy potentially a good site for um air defense uh and surface-to-air missile capability to keep the ukrainian air force busy um that would make sense for russia to do but again hard to say this is all speculation with regards to the transit history at this time we'll know more in the morning though and finally up north kiev is most certainly on the menu when it comes to russian attacks here it seems like i mentioned before that the idea of a minor incursion is completely off the table we're now we're now talking total invasion here at least that's what it seems based on vladimir putin's own rhetoric as of the past few hours and the fact that troops uh russian troops are now advancing through the chernobyl exclusion zone uh it is unclear as to if the chernobyl exclusion the chernobyl um you know power plant itself uh the historically you know relevant location that that is it is unclear as to if any combat has been you know taking place there because there are a lot of things in chernobyl that don't really react too well to explosions and bullets so that woul een you know taking place there because there are a lot of things in chernobyl that don't really react too well to explosions and bullets so that would be something that we're going to keep an eye on as best we can but right now it's it's unclear there's been a heck of a lot of shooting up there though and russian forces are currently advancing through the area again uh like i mentioned the chernobyl exclusion zone is is for military only right at this stage it's an exclusion zone you can't go up there if you're a civilian so it's not likely we're going to have some guy you know with a smartphone you know getting us a good video for twitter here it's going to be military only forces and they're going to be kind of occupied with the people that are trying to kill them so again once russian forces get a little closer to kiev we'll probably know exactly what's going on there this could be everything from a full-scale thing through full-scale invasion through the chernobyl exclusion zone this could be a probing attack who knows i also wanted to mention on this slide in kiev the kiev airport there's some stuff going down there there hasn't been any information for a while but apparently ted to mention on this slide in kiev the kiev airport there's some stuff going down there there hasn't been any information for a while but apparently the airport out to the east of the city has had some small arms fire been heard by a lot of locals a lot of gunfire a lot of explosions at this airport so there's everything floating around again speculation is everywhere right uh but a lot of people are either thinking that the airport was attacked in some way or that russian ground troops as in special forces soldiers who had infiltrated into ukraine are trying to take the airport and seize it as a way of keeping that airport open remember ukraine is a very large nation right and this is the problem that that occurs just in the field of warfare if one nation is trying to invade another nation the person doing the invading is not going to want to destroy everything in that country because they're going to need to use that stuff too right so even though we are seeing russians target military hardware and critical infrastructure it's going to be really interesting to see what russia chooses to keep and not go full scorched earth on this thing because again russia is invading ukraine r ng to be really interesting to see what russia chooses to keep and not go full scorched earth on this thing because again russia is invading ukraine right for a number of reasons one of those reasons is resources so it doesn't really make a whole lot of sense to have kiev a city of millions right a city of millions of people and have their only airport or one of their only you know bigger airports at least uh to be completely destroyed like donetsk right donetsk airport it was was you know a different story than the one right now so it's something to keep in mind as we see the battle for kiev get underway here in the next few days and before we conclude today i briefly wanted to touch on evacuations so we're going to get a lot of questions i know a lot of people are going to be asking about okay how can i egress from ukraine well uh right now we're kind of waiting for the smoke to clear right it's very very unlikely that russian troops will be able to completely and totally take the entire nation of ukraine in a day right it's going to take several days uh but at the same time you need to be moving with purpose if your goal is to leave ukraine belarus is not an option belarusian th o take several days uh but at the same time you need to be moving with purpose if your goal is to leave ukraine belarus is not an option belarusian the belarusian border is already closed they've closed all rail and the ukrainian government itself said they were closing all land borders as well so something that's not really not really feasible if you feel like you can make it then go for it but most people seem to be heading west to poland poland or moldova poland being the obvious choice but moldova being another choice as well just due to geography right now we're seeing a lot of reports of russian aircraft in ukrainian airspace we can confirm via the radio networks that have picked up strategic bomber uh communications platforms and the q the uh basically the com frequencies the bombers use to get uh strategic messages those are hot right now so i know that's kind of gibberish to those of you who aren't intel folks but basically this means that russia is probably going to begin strategic bombing or launching a lot of cruise missiles at places in ukraine most likely critical infrastructure within the next few hours probably before this brief goes out so again subject to change w es at places in ukraine most likely critical infrastructure within the next few hours probably before this brief goes out so again subject to change who really knows what's going on but that's where i put my money in any case this is going to affect evacuation efforts because right now the highways are clogged ukrainian military vehicles are going to be stuck in the same traffic jams that all civilians are stuck in for the most part there's obviously you know the military's going to take priority of course but when it comes to like traffic control and things like that but for the most part there aren't that many roads and west so and the kiev traffic is already starting to stack up so again it's trying to weigh do you want to stay and wait for russia to finish their pre-invasion bombing and striking and cruise missile launching or do you want to risk going out in that because time is of the essence and you know soldiers are coming your way it's it's really going to have to be a call based on people on the ground any average person on the ground in ukraine is going to know more than we do right now but one more tidbit of information i wanted to pass on which is cyber i would fully e the ground in ukraine is going to know more than we do right now but one more tidbit of information i wanted to pass on which is cyber i would fully expect the internet to go down or be complete or be spotty uh cellular coverage to be denied um and uh things like inner basic internet connection will most likely be very very very much restricted also you might have trouble with gps stuff we do know russian units possess the capability to jam gps signals so you might not even be able to rely on your gps again another lesson why having physical paper roadmaps is vital so again there's multiple ways that this can happen we're talking uh russian like physical kinetic strikes as in you know russian bombs blowing up power stations can take power out uh they can take cell phone towers down things like that uh you're also talking electronic warfare stuff jamming can be a can be a factor as well and then also just on top of that everyone in ukraine's on the phone right now everyone in ukraine is on the internet right now trying to figure out what's going on so just simply even if there wasn't any kinetic actions right now the the sheer number of people overloading an already pretty bad commu at's going on so just simply even if there wasn't any kinetic actions right now the the sheer number of people overloading an already pretty bad communications infrastructure is going to just overwhelm the system right so please keep that in mind and please be prepared um don't go somewhere don't leave a safe cover unless you know where you're going and how to get there and an alternative route an alternative route if you can't make it stuff like that basic stuff i know that anyone there is is probably going to not exactly be relying on us to be a huge help but we're going to do what we can to try to kind of at least map where russians are at so that we can hopefully hopefully get some civilians out of there so that's all i have for right now everyone thanks for sticking with us this is going to be a rough next few days again i would like to remind everybody that when it comes to these relatively real time updates just keep in mind that you're either getting speed or quality but not both so we're going to have a lot of updates with regards to our slides and the information we're presenting because things are changing so fast and the fog of war is a real problem it's a real problem gards to our slides and the information we're presenting because things are changing so fast and the fog of war is a real problem it's a real problem not just for us but for everybody else so so thanks again everybody for your support and and remember to to always keep things in perspective right even though this situation does not look good uh it doesn't really look very positive for the future of ukraine or or really for europe for that matter um but just try to keep things in perspective try to try to not let all of the things you're going to see over the next few days scare you too much but a little bit of fear right it is good and motivating you to change your own ways right so if you can learn a lesson from the atrocities that we're already seeing in ukraine that will at least be something good right so try to do that try to try to focus on the good things and try to focus on the good improvements that you can make in your own life moving forward at least that's what we're going to try to do so thanks again and we'll see you next time and as always fight in the shade