The Wire - October 10, 2023

//The Wire//1700Z October 10, 2023// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES PREPARATION FOR GAZA INVASION.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East Front: Arab-Israeli War continues as Palestinian attacks enter fourth day. Battle lines form as various regional actors begin aligning with mutual interest throughout the region. Israel has warned Egypt that any convoys sent to Gaza will be destroyed, Egypt plans to send convoys despite the targeting. Israel has confirmed the US will directly enter the war if Hezbollah invades from the North. Russia has suggested that if the US enters the war, Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, Iran, and Iraq will also join the fray. Saudi and Emirati leaders have begun setting the stage for peace talks but at this late hour, with Israel poised to strike, there is virtually nothing that will prevent an Israeli invasion of Gaza. Far East Front: ROK officials claim DPRK planning surprise attack utilizing the same tactics as HAMAS. NFI ATT. -The Home Front- USA: Domestic tensions remain high resulting from internal political strife. Defense stocks surge in anticipation of wartime weapons production. Domestic protests/demonstrations continue, leading to clashes between pro-Israel and pro-Palestine groups. Increase scrutiny of border crossings indicate that Palestinian sleeper cells are almost certainly already within the US, though the extent of this threat is not yet known. Analyst Comments: Dehumanization rhetoric continues as calls for escalation run rampant on social media. The authority by which Israel has claimed US involvement will begin is unclear, though likely an accurate representation of American policy maker’s desires. American politicians have openly begun calling for the US to declare war on Iran. Depending on Iran’s future involvement after Israel’s invasion of Gaza, this remains a sobering possibility. A much higher possibility (70% chance) is for Israel herself to conduct surgical strikes within Iran. Any substantial military activity on the part of North Korea remains unlikely as DPRK’s battle plans for South Korea have remained relatively unchanged for 50+ years. It is unlikely that DPRK will change their fate on a whim, much less on an event taking place halfway around the world. DPRK officials likely seek to divide America’s attention, along with ROK forces who seek to continue defense funding at a time when the US is spread thin. In any case, North Korea will not act without the support of China and Russia, both of which are highly motivated to destabilize the American foothold in Asia. The impacts this War brings to the average American are variable. If this war continues to escalate, gas prices will almost certainly rise and remain high until the end of the year. OPEC has already pledged daily production cuts until the end of the year, and American support to Israel is likely to result in further tightening of POL production. US Strategic Petroleum Reserves are critically low, as is domestic US oil production. Following major incidents of explosions/fires at major US refineries over the past two years, American POL production remains a major strategic vulnerability. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst: S2ANNNN