The Wire - June 24, 2023

//The Wire//2000Z June 24, 2023// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: Possible Coup Attempt in Russia// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Russia: Yesterday Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the infamous Russian PMC group Wagner, announced that he would be seeking accountability from the Kremlin regarding the losses Wagner troops have suffered in Ukraine. Shortly after this statement, Wagner units stationed in the rear areas of Ukraine's eastern regions (now under Russian control) began movement North toward Moscow. So far, the city of Rostov has been confirmed (with high confidence) to be under Wagner's control. Moscow has begun limited small-scale fortification efforts IVO government buildings. Though impossible to confirm, Prigozhin reportedly has 25,000 soldiers of various unit type, along with various mechanized and armored elements in support. There are also claims that regular Russian Army units have switched sides to join Wagner, but these reports are unconfirmed. Analyst Comment: Always keeping in mind the information warfare running rampant in today's 5GW world, this surreal "mini-coup" appears to be more genuine than propaganda, at least right now. The Kremlin's response so far has been quite limited, possibly due to Russian leadership wishing to handle this incident as peacefully as possible. The Kremlin's limited responses so far could also be due to, like everyone else, Russian leadership not assessing this coup attempt to be genuine. Historically, Russian leaders have often been caught unaware by the winds of change, and this may have been the reason for the lack of any serious attempt (at the early stages) to stop this coup. The grand question on the international front has been "is this real?". The answer to which is not so clear. The information sources reporting on this event are completely unreliable, and local Russian citizens seem to be going about their daily lives relatively unaffected. Meanwhile, the propaganda machines outside Russia are conducting some of the largest Information Operation campaigns in recent memory. Though we may be able to confirm or deny the presence of Wagner forces in various places around Russia, there is a nagging feeling that this whole affair is not organic or natural. Prighozin, eager (allegedly) to stop the bloodshed of his people, can always stop fighting...Wagner is a paid mercenary group, not regular soldiers. It also makes little sense to want to stop Russian deaths...by launching a coup...which will trigger a Ukrainian offensive...causing even more Russian deaths. However, this is Russia, and stranger things have happened. Coups that make absolutely no sense are a critical part of Russian history. Will Prigozhin make good on his promise to install a new President? Will he even make it to Moscow? Or is this event just a complete fabrication? Time will tell. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst: S2ANNNN