The Wire - April 1, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z April 1, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: CHINA UNDERTAKES LARGE SCALE MILITARY EXERCISES IVO TAIWAN. BURMA EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY CONTINUES. TESLA ATTACKS REMAIN CONSTANT.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Far East: China has begun another series of military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, and in the waters surrounding Taiwan. Per the Chinese Ministry of Defense, this latest large-scale drill is largely serving as a "severe warning and forceful containment against Taiwan independence". Southeast Asia: Recovery efforts from the Burmese earthquake continue, as the widespread damage throughout the region becomes more apparent. So far the death toll has surpassed 2,719 victims, according to Myanmar's ruling military government. Humanitarian aid has been slow to flow into the region, and most areas hardest hit by the earthquake remain out of communication with the outside world. AC: Much of the region remains without electricity, which along with the communications outages, has complicated assessments of how bad this crisis truly is. -HomeFront- USA: The attacks on Tesla vehicles have continued to simmer, with limited increases in vandalism incidents in major cities. Following the uptick in these types of attacks, various supporter-protest movements (in support of Tesla and Elon Musk) have taken root as well. Many of these supportive-protests have also been met with counter-protests in most cases, sometimes resulting in clashes between groups. Over the weekend, a pro-Musk protester was intentionally struck by a vehicle of a counter-protester at a protest event in Idaho. The Meridian Police Department arrested the 70-year-old anti-Musk protester at the scene, and charged him with aggravated battery. New Mexico: The GOP Headquarters was firebombed over the weekend in Albuquerque. One of the entrances to the facility was destroyed by an improvised incendiary/explosive device early Sunday morning. Anti-ICE graffiti was spray painted at the scene by the assailants, who have not been identified. Indiana: Yesterday evening, a prominent cybersecurity and cryptography professor at Indiana University was fired after the FBI raided two of his residences under mysterious circumstances. XiaoFeng Wang, a well known crypto and cyber expert, remains missing following the searches. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: While very few details of the Indiana incident have been released or even acknowledged, over the past few months, both the United States and China have been on a spy-hunting spree. 6x Chinese nationals were arrested in the Philippines a week ago for allegedly spying on US warships in Subic Bay. Two weeks ago, China sentenced one of their researchers (at an undisclosed educational institution) to death for spying. As such, it's possible that this is related to Wang's disappearance after the raids. Usually, rooting out spies is a tit-for-tat affair; the Chinese bag one of ours, and we get one of theirs (or at least try to). Of note, China has sentenced all of the spies they have caught to death, while the United States obviously does not. Outside the realm of espionage, more overt actions are being undertaken to beat the drums of war in the Pacific. Though the Chinese drills in the Taiwan Strait were not announced with much notice, the maneuvers so far are largely a continuation of the same posturing and training seen before. Over the past few years, China has been engaging in increasingly complex drills as their proficiency improves. In short, the training is working, and Chinese forces are learning and gaining significant experience in combined arms warfare. Of course, the unspoken factor of war remains extremely relevant regarding any potential military campaign in Taiwan...no plan survives first contact with the enemy. In other words, China can train all they want, but when the missiles start flying for real, it will become exceptionally clear that the modern Chinese army has no real combat experience, and zero experience in conducting a Large Scale Combat Operation (LSCO). This does not mean that China is to be underestimated however, but it does mean that China may learn many lessons the hard way when the time comes. Analyst: S2A1 Research: