Intel Update - November 23 - Wing Attack Plan R

Hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground this is the Intel update for November 17th through the 23rd 2024 so let's get right to it this week I'm going to spend most of the time discussing the events in the international Arena the Strategic kind of developments that have happened because there's a lot to talk about unfortunately there's not a whole lot of solid information to go on. But as many of you already know who have kind of been following the wire reports and other news throughout the week it's been kind of a a very tense uh situation uh in Europe Eastern Europe over the the past few days so today I'm going to focus on mostly just these events and we will kind of work through some of the things to maybe think about and some of the sort of canaries in the coal mine for how serious the situation really is anytime we get kind of close to any sort of uh potentially very very large very kinetic kind of you know doomsday apocalypse kind of event. Even if it may be exceptionally exceptionally unlikely people still think about this sort of thing and the past week has has certainly not uh alleviated many fears in that regard so let's talk about some of the tense things that have gone on this week starting off in the Baltic Sea uh earlier this week uh right after last week's brief came out on Sunday and Monday there were two uh submarine or under undersea cables that were cut in the Baltic Sea the sea lion one cable was cut uh which provides uh Communications between Germany and Finland and the telia internet service provider cable was also cut between the the Swedish island of gotland and Lithuania so when it comes to what we know that's pretty much it uh in terms of things that are solidly confirmed uh there are a few other details that may provide a little bit more Fidelity. But just know that we're we're getting into very much speculation grounds here in terms of some of the data surrounding these cables and this is due to uh two reasons uh for one these cables are underwater it's not like we can go out there with a robo and take a look ourselves so independent verification is going to be very hard to do do and secondly these are very much secret proprietary things we don't want the world to know or at least these companies don't want the world to know their vulnerabilities right so in terms of the information that's come out a lot of it is contradictory and a lot of it I think is just straight up false. But keeping that in mind some of the other details that kind of matter are very very very small details so let let's talk about the cables themselves so the cable between uh gotland Sweden and Lithuania that one was cut first according to the company's initial information when they released that they had detected an error with their cable uh that one was cut at 0800 Zulu Sunday morning that's what the company stated I have seen contradictory reports because the company pushes out a statement to the news media they they directly release a statement to the news media that initial report gets copied and pasted throughout a whole Syndicate of um you know news agencies throughout Europe and if that company comes back and says oh no we were actually wrong on the time or it was slight it was a different time of day that initial report sometimes doesn't get doesn't get updated so just keep that 0800 Zulu time in your mind for now because this is important the next day the sea lion one cable between Finland and Germany was cut uh they detected A A Fault In the cable basically that again was completely severed uh now again this cable was cut according to the company and according to uh Finnish authorities was cut at 0200 Zulu Monday morning so as we can see not. At the same time at least that's what the initial reporting says this is super super super important and this is a detail that I myself remains remain uncertain on because either the cables were cut at the same exact instance in the same exact moment or they were not and this is going to vary this is going to matter quite a lot is to determining what the theories are for how nefarious this could be right so what were the impacts uh regarding the these cables being cut well the C lion one cable was just completely severed allegedly right uh so it was total service outage for whoever was using uh that that cable the telia internet service provider cable which really doesn't have a name as far as I've been able to tell it's just a numbered cable uh that cable was one of three that provided internet service uh to Lithuania from Sweden so there was a little bit of degradation when it comes to internet connection in Lithuania for uh a little bit right um. But in terms of uh the impacts it wasn't as severe the teleia cable being out wasn't severe because the other two cables uh were able to uh pick up that traffic now getting into speculation land we have to list the things that we do not know the things that are not certain the intelligence gaps the things that we need to find out and one of of course the the main things we need to find out is is who did it and was it malicious again for many of you who may not be familiar with these undersea cables uh these are also by the way called submarine cables that's the proper name because they are underwater uh it's not that they are actually a submarine the word submarine also applies to things that are uh underneath the sea right so I say under sea cable just to make it a little bit more clear for people who might not understand they may have a submarine in their mind and they that the cable is is is driving through the ocean uh that's not the case it's just an underwater uh Communications cable so that's the first bit of clarification uh the next bit of clarification is that these these types of cables get cut all of the time and this is very very common um around the world it depends on who you ask and how recent your data is. But there are estimates that state that or indicate at least that roughly 80 to 90% of all Communications on Earth go through underwater cables under sea cables right so unfortunately uh it's a very very big vulnerability for the world right or if you are say in Western Europe and you have a lot of Nations that are separated by water uh it's very very easy to either cut these cables by accident or cut them in a military operation because these cables are quite literally just laying on the sea Flor they're not buried or anything they're just laying there kind of in the open so a submarine can come up grab the cable cut it or place explosives on it blow it or even tap into it. But uh if you're into sort of Espionage stuff but that's that's another story for another time generally speaking though uh when it comes to cut cables another thing that can happen is a ship dragging anchor uh Believe It or Not anchors uh sometimes don't necessarily stop a ship from moving entirely uh when you when a very very large ship drops a you know 100 ton anchor or something and they've got that anchor chain which is even heavier right um that weight and that anchor if it's dragging along the ocean floor can cut that cable um it seems like it's a very very hard thing to do because the cables are kind of armored. But it just cuts through these cables like butter sometimes this has happened in the Red Sea this has happened actually in the Baltic Sea several times um. But again when we're talking about an anchor dragging incident we can really start to assign either nefarious intent or it was just a mistake the reason that I say all of this is because there are two main theories as to what caused these cable outages and both theories veryy widely and and their nefariousness level so the most innocent one the most innocent theory is that a ship dragged anchor a ship dropped anchor did not understand or they didn't know where the cable was because the ex we know generally where these cables are at uh. But we don't know exactly where they're at again the companies want to reduce these vulnerabilities so uh in terms of uh ships knowing where cables are at they just don't know so a ship can drop anchor and just get really really unlucky they drop their anchor on top of a cable snag it or something or drag their anchor over it uh in in high winds or something like that and you see how we can have a a a Global Communications outage just due to an accident now moving up in terms of the nefariousness if you wanted to conduct a kinetic attack on a cable. But make it look like an accident you can drive your ship right over a cable drop your anchor and say oops I just made a mistake I didn't know this cable was here when really you absolutely knew it was there this Theory at the moment is the most publicized in this in this case the reason being is because a Chinese ship in October of 2023 did this exact thing they mysteriously somehow found themselves over the top of of several cables and dropped their anchor in a place where no ship would ordinarily drop their anchor do you see where we're starting to get into the nefariousness side of this. And then they claim oops it was just a mistake so if you're wanting to have a hostile act that is disguised as a an accident or at least cause a delay in response that's going to be probably the most common theory I personally don't think that's what happened uh in this case. But authorities are investigating they is one Chinese ship that is currently being investigated by NATO at large uh for potentially causing this incident but again there there's those crucial details I I mentioned at the beginning you may can understand why I don't think this this is what happened now the most nefarious Theory again we're still in the world of unknowns we're still in speculation land the most nefarious theory is that a Russian submarine uh went up went up to these cables laid explosives detonated them and cut the cable um there will be a lot of evidence of that uh so when the investigation is ongoing we may we may get more Fidelity on whether or not that actually happened hard to say otherwise they can also uh cut it manually with Cutters uh it doesn't necessarily have to be explosives. But again in terms of the indicators because we're dealing in a world of unknowns here we're dealing with a lot of speculation we're having to make decisions on just a tiny bit of information uh a couple of the indicators that really indicate whether or not it was a cable an anchor dragging incident or the timing the timing in the location if the ca if both of these cables which intersect here that's why I have this BBC map up if uh these cables intersect here uh just just southeast of the island of gutland there uh and a ship just so happened to drop their anchor right at the at the exact place where these cables cross cross each other uh and they dragged their anchor and both of these cables were cut in the same place. At the same time that indicates it was probably some kind of anchor dragging incident especially if you can you know monitor which ships were in the area if a ship kind of loitered. And then stopped right over the same area where there was a cable break you know pretty I mean you can pretty much assess what happened with a pretty high degree of accuracy here's the issue. Though there's conflicting information isn't there we both companies initially stated that these these cable cuttings were many many hours apart how can you have one anchor cut two cables at different times do you see the other issue is initially initially both companies came out and stated that the cables were cut within 10 meters of each other so very close to each other in terms of ship's dragging anchor again this supports the anchor dragging theory if they're both kind of cut in the same place. At the same time probably a dragged anchor uh especially if we can you know conduct sampling and see if there are any uh explosive residue or any kind of blast effects on the sea Flor you know we can start to figure out what it actually was. However in the days following the incident that point of impact so to speak uh has changed uh so and again we're still in the world of unknowns and I don't know how accurate this reporting is. But most western media including the BBC here as we can see states that the sea lion 1 cable was cut dozens if not hundreds of miles away from the other cable so we've got two cables being cut at different times and in very different places it may not be an anchor dragging incident it may be more of a hostile act uh in terms of understanding the the global geopolitical situ ation at the time. But again all of this is unknown we we have not been able to confirm or at least I have not been able to confirm with any sort of liability were these cables cut in the same place. At the same time or were they not this is a simple question and it's a hard thing to get an answer for I expect over the next couple of weeks as the repairs continue and as you know cable L laying ships go out there and assess the damage um it's going to take I've seen estimates of 5 to 15 days uh to repair one of these cables so uh it really depends on what the damage is and what they find uh I would be willing to bet that Nato one way or the other got images of this pretty quickly uh they're not just going to sit there with their you know twiddling their thumbs and waiting to see what a civilian um ship is going to to do know they're going to go out there and probably militarily examine it with military submarines and dsrvs and things like that uh that's just my total guess. Though again we're in the world of unknowns here so again we don't actually know what happened but we also have to be okay with understanding that we have to make decisions sometimes based on very very incomplete information uh in terms of it World shaping events like this so sticking with the theme of Submarine cables or undersea cables uh around around the same exact time uh a Russian intelligence collection vessel or if you believe Russians the an underwater uh research vessel research vessel right uh was discovered to be loitering off of the submarine cables or undersea cables off the coast of Ireland just south of the Isle of Man now as we can see here on my chart I have uh an overlay for those of you who maybe not are aware of this. But all of these maps that I use have the submarine cable network uh laid out on on all these Maps because it's such an important thing it's not the exact location obviously and my my uh data is a little bit um uh stale it's a little bit outdated. But it's the best I've got so uh again a Russian research vessel that is known that is known to have the capability of tapping into cutting surveying their whole mission is underwater cables was located over the top of NATO military cables or at least that's what's the most likely Theory no one has stated exactly which cables they were over top of. But again they're not going to say which cables are over the top of uh in any case the Irish Navy um gave them kind of the the push off and moved them off of the uh move them out of their economic exclusion Zone in the wake of these other cables going down looks very suspicious right so they they uh kind of bullied the Russians out of their Waters I did briefly just want to mention this this uh this incident involving again a Russian ship uh not is really a way of pointing the finger at Russia with regards to this it could be China it could be the United States uh it could be um I just wanted to kind of highlight the the overall tension throughout Europe being exceptionally high right now people are very very jumpy they're very on edge throughout the continent and uh things like this kind of kind of point that out now in terms of who probably did cut the submarine cables it it it's there's no way to actually ever know for sure I can say that the Russians like I wrote In The Wire report the Russians absolutely have an entire directorate this is not just a training scenario they have an entire directorate of their Naval forces well their Armed Forces uh that is dedicated to this so they have entire bases they have an entire uh you know directorate the GUI directorate which is designed to do just this to cut tap conduct Espionage on survey undersea cables that's what their whole job is the US Navy uh has a similar Mission. But it's not like there's a department in the Navy whose entire like existence is is built around this we don't have you know bases where the entire population of the of the naval base is meant to tap an underwater cable we don't have that. But the Russians do and the reason for this is quite simple uh it's mostly due to our main adversary during the Cold War the Soviet Union did not really use submarine cables because Russia is rather large so they did not need to rely on connecting a lot of Nations like Ireland the United Kingdom with you know the rest of Western Europe the mainland we they didn't have the Baltic Sea to go over they didn't have the terranean right to work through so in terms of the US Navy's mission in terms of um tapping underwater cables I I mean I'm sure the capability is there and I'm sure it gets trained with a lot going back to the Vietnam era right the whole the origin of the Navy Seals the Frogman kind of thing is doing underwater secret stuff right. But in terms of the scale Russia has definitely invested a lot a lot of money into tapping underwater cables that's just been their history since well the Cold War and now it seems like they are because of that they are the most likely suspect. But just to be just transparent as possible Russia did be a couple of days before this state the United States is going to conduct a false flag attack and they're going to cut an undersea cable and blame us so they're they're trying to say that it's going to be another nordstream uh pipeline kind of thing I mean in in this age of scops and information warfare that's exactly what I would do too if was planning to cut the cable myself I'm going to say my adversary is going to cut the cable. And then I sneakily go do it myself it just it's just information Warfare Russia is so much better at this uh than we give them credit for so I don't know was it Russia you know I am American so I am a little bit biased. But in terms of their history their mission how how uh the geop politics of the world is going right now yeah I think it was probably Russia I mean Gren pointing the finger at Russia doesn't really matter anymore uh because either what's going to happen is going to happen so again very much making a decision in the unknowns the world of unknowns the assessment at least as far as I'm concerned is it was probably Russia and it was probably as a message to Nato the United States with regards to sending aacs to Ukraine so I think that's probably what it was they also probably put the yantar over top of a few cables probably not with a goal of cutting them. But probably with the goal of just sending a message and that's the way that it is the US Navy has also been quite active in the region over the past few weeks really so there is that as well we we are I don't know if it would be a proper accurate thing to say that we are are reaching Cold War levels of of Naval deployments I I don't know if that's accurate to say or not. But the vibe is definitely there uh we're definitely bringing back a lot of Cold War era stuff but again we'll we'll talk about that in a moment so enough about submarine cables let's move to Eastern Ukraine and talk about the event that shook the world Russia's irbm launch a few days ago again the known uh the things that we do know and are decently confirmable are very few uh really we have to go on a lot of press statements from Russia and press statements from the United States and press statements from Ukraine and go from there and just kind of decide for ourselves what's what's true and what's not the general consensus at the moment between all three of these main parties in terms of what's probably true is that Russia did in fact launch an irbm an intermediate range ballistic missile from somewhere in Russia with the target of being the Deno Factory complex uh I have seen varying reports of casualties. But it doesn't appear to have killed anybody I saw a report that that stated that two were wounded but I'm not entirely certain if that is accurate again because all information coming out of of Ukraine is very very hard to verify in any case what missile was it again sticking with the theme of what we know uh the Pentagon originally stated that it was an experimental irbm based on the rs26 uh ICBM uh which has a slightly longer range uh it's just barely itself classified as an ICBM I know that a lot of us we think ICBM and think oh my gosh it can hit New York within 15 minutes not this one the rs26 itself the the the missile that this one is based on barely as classified as an ICBM now it can still hit London in 20 minutes from basically anywhere in Western Russia right so there's that uh. But it's not like the rs26 itself could not hit the United States it couldn't hit New York for instance uh from anywhere in Russia but in any case I I think that we're kind of getting into a little bit of a game of semantics because when we're talking about potentially nuclear warheads here 3600 miles versus 34 400 miles is not that big of a difference. But in any case the the most likely culprit the most likely platform this was is it's probably the 9M 729 oresnik that's what Putin called it he called it the oresnik uh in Russian it means something I think it means Hazel tree uh or something like that so that's what he called it uh and the Pentagon kind of circled back around and basically confirm that too so both parties in this say that it was the arnik so I say all of that and just want to clarify that a lot of this is unknown because I for one I'm not a missile expert uh. But I think that there may be a little bit of deception going on here uh with regards to what this missile actually is and despite the media stating that it was the irush Nick it it it might actually be something else it might be something that the United the Pentagon is is fully aware of what it is. But they don't want to to confirm that to say the world or the American people uh the reason that this is super important is because this missile if it is the oresnik is radically different from the rs26 the rs26 looks exactly like this it I mean you you really can't tell the difference by looking at from the outside you kind of can. But uh for the most part for all intensive purposes it's the same missile just modified to carry different kinds of Munitions or Warheads and this case uh icbms in general are not they're not generally modifi like that as far as I know um you've got training Munitions you've got uh training warheads and things like that. But for the most part if you're going to want to change the WarHeads up a little bit and make the WarHeads a little bit different you're going to have to change the missile design and I and I personally think it's my personal opinion very much speculation I think what the Russians did is they took the rs26 and turned the WarHeads into Hypersonic Warheads um and that's the difference here and that's a pretty big difference I know this is a a very very big very deep Rabbit Hole here um. But the reason that I think this is a message that is being conveyed more so than one might think on the surface you know Russia firing a big damn missile into Ukraine that's a pretty big message by itself. But it's this one's a little bit more special than that it's a bigger message because this missile carries six mvs or multiple independently targetable re-entry Vehicles so this missile launches up into space gets way up into the top parts of the atmosphere where very few uh certainly no Ukrainian can detect it once it's up into space splits off into six different uh Warheads six different t uh six different um uh targetable Warheads that can then strike six different targets and the special part with this one is that each one of those Warheads is potentially going 11,000 M hour so faster than any any defense that the West has faster than any defense Russia has for that matter um so we're in the era of hypersonic missiles so the message that's being conveyed is not just a cold war message it is a message for the future saying hey we have the ability to launch you know basically like a little miniature ICBM and irbm which is debatable I think that it's probably an ICBM. But that's pure speculation I know um anyway uh I think it has a longer range than Russia is saying is what I'm trying to say. Anyway Russia is saying that or is proving through their actions that they actually have this capability they have the ability to with one of their and this isn't even their most impressive missile this is like the fifth or six one down in terms of range and capabilities this is like a small small guy here um and they're still able to to deliver six Hypersonic Warheads to uh anywhere in Ukraine and no one on this planet can stop them now is this a new idea absolutely not every major Nation the United States Russia and China have been working on hyp Sonic Munitions and have tested Hypersonic Munitions successfully over the past 10 years so this is not a new capability the new part is now it's been used in war and that's uh I don't know if this is technically new I'd have to look that up uh to see if an irbm with mirvs that are Hypersonic mirvs uh has ever been used in War I don't think so uh a lot of the newspapers are saying okay well it's the first time an ICBM has been used in war then the sem Brigade gets in there says it's not an ICBM It's actually an irbm who cares it's the range difference on those on on the rs26 ICBM and the oresnik irbm is like 200 miles it doesn't matter in terms of the grand scheme of things. But in any case uh very troubling very very troubling uh for reasons I'll get to in just a moment uh because I I think this this message has largely fallen on deaf ears now a little bit of um a little bit of relief I should say a little bit of um calming of the situation Russia and the United States both confirmed that they were communicating with each other using the red phone right the back channels to prevent nuclear Armageddon they were communicating with each other Russia did notify the United States they were going to launch what the United States would think is an ICBM and to not please nuke the planet so you know thankfully a phone call occurred to stop you know nuclear Armageddon um the fact that we're even discussing this in terms of well at least they made a phone call is very disturbing to me personally because I think that we we've gotten we have we have gotten much closer to some very very bad things happening than I think a lot of people realize including defense officials because it seems to me like the general attitude in the Pentagon is well they gave us a call so yeah I I don't really know what to say to that because someone who's going to come with the with the uh attitude of well it was technically an irbm and not an ICBM uh let me tell you something the arnik in the r26 On's an ICBM one's an irbm they can both hit London in 20 minutes they both hit Paris in 10 minutes you know like does it really matter if a nuclear warhead detonates in London versus New York do you think the result is going to be different uh it does not matter that the irbm that they launched cannot hit the United States it doesn't matter if a nuclear warhead goes off in Paris I'm fairly certain the United States is going going to be rather kinetic for a few hours at least so um I think the the point here is is going over a lot of people's heads in terms of uh what this actually means so let's go ahead and move over to some of the Strategic indications and warnings uh because a lot of people have have come at me with the question which is a perfectly valid question which is how do I know the World War 3 is about to start so unfortunately the answer to the question of how do I know World War II is about to start uh it varies widely and unfortunately I haven't been able to to articulate it very very well because it's situation dependent uh for instance if you have not done so already I I included a lot of these indications and warnings of something very very big happening around the world um in the event of uh Trump being shot so I did the uh the Trump shooting hot wash video which covered a lot of those indications and warnings of things that I did and and do when like an assassination attempt either successful or unsuccessful occurred uh that may indicate some other things going on around the world. But again that is a sort of like World War III indications and warnings idea pertaining to one idea the assassination of a political leader um it varies widely uh in terms of like China Taiwan so I have a whole different mentality and a whole different uh idea and a whole list of different things that China will do if they're planning to invade Taiwan and thus maybe attack the United States Pacific Fleet again when it comes to Russia and Ukraine and the United States the whole Cold War era basically means that again we have many many indicators. But it would take me years to get through the hundreds of thousands of indicators so let's just start small okay and let's talk about the things you can look at right now to maybe get a better picture get your mind in a better spot for understanding how serious this is you're really not going to be able to predict World War III or missiles being launched um with any accuracy in terms of like the knowing the hour and the day uh that's going to be very very hard to do you I would argue you can. But it's a full-time job for many people and you know and just it's it's it's a lot of work but some of the things you can do and some of the things you definitely you absolutely need to be aware of are things like Communications burst so let's let's talk about some of these indicators um just again as a very brief disclaimer these are indicators this is not a definitive proof of anything. But when we talk indicators of something happening what we can do is if multiple indicators are are being met. At the same time we can do what's called aggregation we can bring these uh ideas together and say look this indicator happened this indicator happened this indicator is happening right now this indicator is happening right now. And then we could start to get a better picture of what's going on we can't just say oh there was a Cyber attack World War I is around the around the corner we can't say that right because there's other reasons. But if all of these things happen at once within a short period of time we still can't get definitive proof is anything going to happen but we can definitely say be cautious right so one of the things that a lot of people I have mentioned it many many times before. But one of the things you probably need to be aware of if you are a taxpaying American citizen who is concerned about nuclear war is the hfgcs or the highfrequency glob communication system this is a radio uh Network this is a radio communications Network used by the US Air Force would to do with all things nuclear Armageddon right so generally speaking all the messages on this platform are open to the public uh you can listen to this if you have the right kind of radio the right kind of antenna uh you can also watch people who live stream these I know the the YouTube channel NE Intel live streams these a lot when they happen um that's a a fantastic resource if you're just looking to kind of casually monitor these things. But again the reason that these are open to the public and kind of you know like freely detectable by us you know lowly peons with our Ham radios and things like that is because the messages are encoded so we can under we can hear what they're saying we can see listen to the call signs we can know the frequencies we can pick up the message we just can't decrypt it we can't decode it it's it's coded right so that's why it's available um again. Though that's hard to say what it is now we can count characters in these messages when they read off like letters and numbers right we can count them and determine what kind of message it is uh because again this information has either been leaked involuntarily over the years or uh just pattern analysis right pattern recognition we've we the world's kind of figured it out Russia has the same thing uh their vers well something similar it's not the same thing. But it's something very similar called the baronet there's this less it's used more often for strikes say in Ukraine so again just going back to what I've already mentioned previously a lot of the times in the early early days of Ukraine whenever the baronet whenever we noticed messages being sent Whenever there was a lot of Russians talking back and forth on the on the baronet frequencies um we knew that missiles were inbound to Ukraine in a few hours so that's kind of the way that this works with regards to going back to the American hfgcs system if you see a huge Spike of traffic on this on this system this means that they're probably they're doing one of two things either it's a drill or it's nuclear war that's really what it is uh so you know it varies widely in what it could be. But I you know I think we' have seen more traffic on the hfgcs um over the past few days and the past few months and some some of the messages that have been sent have not been sent hardly at all over the past year so again there are drills there are schedule so don't think that every time the hfgcs pops off and we start seeing traffic on it don't think that that's that that means the end is nigh right this happens a lot once a week you know once every few days the context. Though is what matters again like I said aggregation we've got to take an indicator and match it to another indicator and see if there's a correlation there because in the field of I know we talk about correlation versus causation a lot. But in in terms of strategic things like nuclear war correlation is a huge indicator if we've got the American radio network being very active and we've got the Russian Network being very active. At the same time pay attention because we've got some maybe some things going on what what do we have going on I don't know no one can know uh. But it's something to look for another indicator undersea cables being cut don't you think that it would be if you were a nation if you were in country a and your enemy was country B and Country a uh has does not need under C cables all of their Communications go under uh through their own Nation. But Country B country B has most of their internet access or most of their radio and Military Communications going through cables that you can cut very easily don't you think don't you think that in a time of War you might want to do that so again uh cutting cables in terms of Russia uh cutting cables at least is very much on the menu for a World War III indicator if multiple cables get cut at around the same time and they're all critical cables and say like the N between NATO members pay attention do you see where you see where we're kind of going with this a lot of these indicators have already happened uh so we're kind of in Uncharted Territory with regards to that another major thing that would happen are widespread major very significant cyber attacks how that might happen and what might be targeted who knows Financial Centers critical infrastructure Public Services uh Communications platforms for things like 911 call centers going down again we're starting to aggregate things together aren't we so if we're seeing strategic radio traffic from the Americans and the Russians cables are being cut cyber attacks are happening every day you see you see where we're kind of going with this uh another thing that that two things that actually haven't happened yet uh to kind of calm everyone down a little bit uh another thing that you would see is kinetic targeting of satellites now this has been a thing ever since uh James Bond right uh of whether or not we can take each other's satellites out of orbit uh starlink has changed that quite a lot um a lot of people may not understand this and understand the role that starlink has in society. But you know one you know ViaSat satellite can be taken down can't it we've seen this right one ViaSat one internet service provider satellite can be taken down 5,000 is a little harder to do. Though um so that's kind of the the advantage starlink has they're closer to Earth there's more of them and they're moving like really fast so uh in terms of kinetic targeting of satellites this was a strong indicator if we suddenly lost our satellite connections uh if iridium suddenly went down or we noticed five or 10 iridium satellites just went down like that with no signal from them at all assume the Russians did it and we at War you know that's kind of the way that this is starlink has changed that a lot because they have thousands of satellites in Russia no Nation on the earth if we the United States of America wanted to shoot down every single starlink satellite we couldn't do it we just don't have the missiles for it same thing with Russia so the satellite thing is is a little bit more comforting in that regard now um you don't necessarily have to take down the satellites to make the satellite Network ineffective you can Target The Grounds Control stations too so if you notice weird explosions in like Bolivia or you know like Northern Africa or something you know it could be because the ground control station's just been targeted by some kind of cruise missile. But again we haven't seen this at all uh we have seen a few satellites go offline mysteriously but I I think that has more to do with uh errors and and not like a you know kind of Soviet satellite just kind of swallowing up or or a missile more likely shooting down an American satellite they this is not happened they're trying the United States China and Russia are absolutely working on this capability it's questionable as to whether or not they can actually do it and it's questionable they may be able to do it once. But how many can they repeat that uh it's it's a hard thing to say so again we may find out though that Russia and China have got some new capabilities and they may demonstrate them on the battlefield just like they did in Ukraine we've never seen this missile being used operationally they tested it a couple of times I think. But we don't really know its capabilities and boom it's on the battlefield it's already been used so that's again another message that Russia was conveying that they have experimental stuff that is operational we consider it to be experimental. But they know that it's operational um another thing to consider and this kind of goes into the sort of fear that's kind of gone through Europe over the past week or two or really past few months honestly and that is the mass deployment of troops um it you may have heard the phrase before that the Cold War didn't end it just changed I don't know if I believe that fully or not. But it certainly seems like a lot of the aspects of the Cold War did not go away some for good reason though uh some for for not so great reasons so one of the things that would be definitely a very strong indicator for uh World War I or some kind of kinetic conflict in Europe that's beyond the scope of Ukraine uh is the old school idea of East versus West you know East Germany versus West Germany I wrote here the the fold a gap concept is still um is still definitely relevant just maybe not in the way that it used to be uh essentially all of those nuclear Apocalypse movies where you see you know the Soviets have have rolled through into West Germany and we're now at War those kind of like fantasy scenarios books movies whatever from the 80s um that idea is still in play how relevant is it hard to say. But if I was going to put money on it I would say that we would see a very sharp increase in American deployments to to Western Europe for sure uh and a lot of Eastern European nations that we now like basically influence uh and more specifically if you're wanting specific Nations to watch out for to watch what they're doing the the big old NSF Norway Sweden and Finland and also lvia Lithuania and Estonia these uh six nations are generally I'm sorry if you live in these nations I truly am uh. But unfortunately just due to geography these six nations are the Canary and the coal mine for whether or not we're going to be firing nuclear warheads at each other in a few minutes uh and I say that um uh just because uh all six of these nations have really revamped their civil defense practices um the there's the old joke it's a kind of a morbid joke. But the joke is that the the nations of lvia Lithuania and Estonia are really only uh they only exist to give NATO a 15minute warning that the Soviets are coming that's kind of a idea that goes back to the Cold War um and you can see this especially in the nation of Finland uh if you download they recently interestingly enough just like Sweden released earlier this week Finland a few months ago uh revamped their civil defense and their military manuals um I don't know if they have them in English yet. But uh you can Google translate them translate the pdf version of it and you look at these nations defense policies essentially Finland their entire military's idea is stall and Retreat stallin Retreat Stalin Retreat cause as much damage for the Soviets as possible there is absolutely no hope at all for a direct confrontation with the Russians in modern society so stolen Retreat their entire military is built based around the idea of a nation state engaging in Guerilla Warfare if you read their infantry manuals that's basically their their existence I find that be utterly fascinating because it's very sharply uh uh different from the United States what is the United States Doctrine fight them over there so that we don't fight them over here uh offense is the best defense that's what the United States generally believes when it comes to defense Doctrine Finland knows they have no hope at offense so we're going to make the defense as dirty and as costly as possible for the Russians something to be something to be mindful of for the prepared citizenry if you know what I mean uh Sweden and Norway are of similar mindset uh in terms of what their capabilities are. But again these Nordic country Scandinavia right they're very cold places very very cold uh they're probably going to be in Winter for more of the year than southern Europe obviously so a lot of their defense Doctrine is based around winter Warfare uh in terms of what their capabilities are so it's not a perfect fit for say southern Europe uh. But it is an interesting thing nonetheless and when these nations uh start redoing their civil defense things they start bringing civil defense back into uh kind of a common use familiarizing their citizenry with the concepts of civil defense again uh because a lot of the younger people uh in society today just they just don't know I think Sweden itself maintains 63,000 uh bomb shelters around their country uh for for use during a time of War uh so the Scandinavian countries really do take this seriously uh way more seriously than than other European nations. But that's just due to geography and their National Defense Doctrine and the threat itself which would for them be Russia so it's kind of a paradox isn't it uh when when Nations start getting involved in civil defense it's one of those one of those things where you think okay this is fantastic a government is actually trying to protect its citizens they're trying to bring forth the idea of Na service maybe not National military service. But they're trying to stoke the idea of letting their citizenry you know um you know provide and help each other out and they're they're trying to nationally you know unify their people um it gets a little different. Though it's where the Paradox comes in is when a government does it so in America we think preparedness is a good thing don't we for the most part anyone who's watching this probably thinks preparedness being proactive being ready for any situation uh is a good thing generally speaking we don't want to be vulnerable and helpless when something you know uh bad happens what whatever it may be well it's a little bit different when your government institutes that so I guarantee you that if the United States government were to come out and say we're going to revamp civil defense the entire country would go what are you preparing for uh what are you planning to get us into is kind of the the attitude when a nation state does it now I don't know if that's the attitude in uh Scandinavia I don't know if you know Lithuania laia Estonia are thinking the same way or citizens in these nations are thinking the same way. But I would be you know it's it's kind of like that's why it's such a paradox or like a catch22 it's like you want your nation to be prepared you want civil defense to be part of what it means to be a citizen. But when they start pressing it like we may need it you in today's age in the context of what's going on gets a little gets a little dicey doesn't it so. Anyway um that's kind of one of the canaries in the coal mine is what are these nations doing and they're all they're all revamping their civil defense they're all preparing for nuclear war not exactly comforting is it. But uh really the the grand scheme and the grand uh kind of context of why I wanted to talk about this today is just a very simple very simple idea and I think because of the nature of the missile because of what Target it hit because well it's not that great of a missile well it's this that or the other I think that the larger message gets lost so let me just tell you what I think right now it's just my personal opinion I think it's very very very unlikely for Russia to use nuclear warheads and start you know World War III start well start a nucle nulear World War II over Ukraine I think that's very very very unlikely. But but let's just assume let's just play pretend play make bully for a minute right let's just say that he is let's say Putin is perfectly willing to drop a nuclear warhead in Western Ukraine so that he could keep eastern Ukraine let's just say that's the case or he gets into a situation where if he can't have UK a nobody can okay fantasy right it's hard to believe for many different reasons. But let's just say that that's the case if he was indeed willing to drop a nuclear warhead or launch a nuclear missile over this how would he convey to the West that he's not bluffing how if he if it is a bluff fine. But if it's not a bluff that's the thing I'm trying to get at if this is not a bluff how would Russia convey that it is not a Bluff do you think maybe he would launch one without a warhead on it do you think maybe that he would do exactly what he's already done that's the point I'm trying to make is that if Russia is bluffing fine thank God honestly if Russia is just bluffing and all he wants is some territory over this fine. But if he's not if Putin is not bluffing anymore you got to remember the man's getting old okay he he's he's getting to the to the end of his life he's trying to rebuild the glory of the Soviet Union maybe not in its you know exactly the way same way it was. But he's trying to rebuild the Russian Federation to be reminiscent of the Soviet Union so this is not just a simple land grab it's more than just one land grab right it's like a national Unity kind of thing so you got to remember people in the Pentagon they're sipping their lattes and they're reading their reports and scoffing at it and just kind of making fun of the Russians and they're completely missing the message if if Putin was serious I think he's bluffing I personally think he's bluffing I don't think he's going to launch a nuclear warhead or nukes over this. But if he was if he was he'd be doing exactly what he's done right now so the next one if NATO doesn't get it if the Pentagon doesn't get the message the next one's going to hit Kiev and it may not just have training you know hyp training Warheads on it it may actually be a very very large explosion it may not be nuclear I think there are a few more steps that Putin can do like he can cut a few more cables we can have massive banking systems go down around this country you know uh we can have all of these other indicators happen um. But yeah that's kind of the general gist of why I think this is important because I have I have gotten the word through a actually many people have messaged me about this um who are either in the Pentagon or have kind of atmospherics or they have feelers out in the Pentagon and again this is anecdotal so sample size of one right purely anecdotal I get the feeling you get this feeling just for watching the press conferences I get the feeling that nobody in the Pentagon is taking this seriously like nobody cares like this is oh okay Russia launches big missile okay so what they don't understand they don't understand the message the message is not coming through because the message was sent to people who are probably not going to check their email before they lose their job they're probably just not they probably just don't care because again regime change right so we've got a lot of people who are getting ready to be out of a job and they don't care that nuclear war is getting ready to start uh because of their their stupidity um so very dangerous time for Putin to be sending a message when the people who the message is intended for aren't listening do you see how we can get into a very very tricky situation if this had happened during the height of the Cold War I mean it would have a very different very different result. But I can tell you that even considering American political leadership at the time I I know the message would have been received in the way it was intended to be received not just brushed off as being ah it's just crazy Putin crazy Vlad that would not have been the attitude um even just a few years ago. But now it is and we're getting a we're in a situation where you know uh things can get very very serious um so that's kind of what I think about this so again not not really good news. But I mean not total not totally bad news I guess it's just more along the lines of this is a call for us to be a little bit more prepared be a little bit more attentive um and just start thinking about these things we we we don't again like I've said many many times we don't get very many opportunities to learn and to grow in terms of a very very clearly defined threat scenario whatever so we can take advantage of this and start working through our own plans like what what does the term civil defense mean what does it mean to me what does it mean to my family my co-workers my friends is this something that we can work on and I think that's a very good place to start discussions that should have been happening you know over the past few years. But now we know that the threat is definitely real and um we can go from there so it's not all doom and gloom it's not all oh we're all going to die tomorrow it's not it's not that bad for sure uh. But it is uh pointing out where we're at and recognizing where we're at is definitely a critical part of learning something and growing and doing better so uh let's wrap things up with the ghost net again this week uh it was a little light I don't know why maybe there was a football game on or something. But did not get I was listening to multiple web sdrs and I didn't hear a whole lot of people so maybe maybe some of you out there know what was going on I checked the solar weather and it was okay um. But I did get a few of the standard people I normally get so thank you guys for continuing to send uh information reports uh from wherever you're at uh that's that's really good for people to see. But I I saw a lot of heartbeats a lot of messages but not so much traffic this week for some reason so maybe it's a cold weather I don't know it's it kind of comes and goes I guess. But yeah that's that's pretty much all I have for today um going to try to focus on again some more radio stuff I'm working on some more Publications that'll be a little bit more helpful um and yeah I guess we'll kind of go from there so here are the sources as usual uh and we'll see how next week goes hopefully things won't escalate anymore. But we never know we'll take it we'll take it one day at a time and see what we can do so thank you guys all for your support uh thank you all for watching and we will. See you next time and as always fight in the shade.