Why No War With Yemen (Yet)

hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground so as events in the Middle East have kind of progressed a little bit and things in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa in general have gotten a little bit more serious with with regards to houthi targeting um things seem to be getting a little bit out of hand right so uh one of the questions that I've gotten asked over the past couple of days uh is in response to the hthy targeting that has intensified in the Red Sea so I thought that I would uh take a break for a moment and answer uh the questions I've gotten a little bit more directly with regards to the uh houthi crisis so the question on everyone's mind uh that people have asked me either in messages on patreon or uh via email is why has the United States not declared war on Yemen and or is the United States planning to declare a war on Yemen like where is this going like are are we looking at Yemen being a vector for World War III going more kinetic than it already is so to answer these sort of questions I've gotten uh a little bit of uh a few notes Here together and I thought I would just kind of run through some of the more um common explanations again this is all my opinion but this is a very interesting and very good question because it does have implications uh moving forward so the houthis in Yemen have sunk or they have sunk one ship the merchant vessel rubar and two other vessels right now as I speak are sinking in the Red Sea and in the Gulf of Aiden the merchant vessel tutor and the merchant vessel verbina um so why has the United States not declared war on Yemen because of this right you know ships being torpedoed or hit with mines or drones or something like that is usually a pretty good Vector throughout history for some kind of Combat Action taking place right well let's start with the culturally acceptable reasons right now uh things that are not really inflammatory and the reasons which you know you would probably hear at some kind of Pentagon press statement so the very first reason why the United States has not officially declared war on Yemen is mostly diplomatic uh and mostly it's kind of a game of semantics the United States does not want to declare war on Yemen because in doing so they would have to formally recognize that the houthi government is Yemen and no one wants to do that so going back to when this conflict started you know we saw a lot of diplomatic you know T AET going back and forth because no one wants to State the obvious which uh and this is where the answer gets a little bit more controversial is that the houthis really do control Yemen um so a few years ago back really in kind of the 2015 era uh there was a coup uh in Yemen and the military um Council that sort of ended up ruling the country they control the capital they control almost all of the trade routes they control the majority of the land mass of Yemen you may look at a CNN map and say and see okay well which parts of Yemen uh do the houthis control um I'm not really convinced these maps are accurate because Yemen is basically controlled almost entirely by the houthis uh the houthi rebels right so this is why you see reports from even International agencies saying the houthi rebels they're referring to the same group of people who control the capital who control the trade routes who control the military who control the economy who control the almost the entirety of Yemen except for some parts out in the eastern part of the country where the legitimate government allegedly is still kind of running things now I don't believe that for one minute I think that the control Yemen and I think that's been obvious for a very long time but the International Community does not want to say this because this means that they would be recognizing uh and giving diplomatic status to a nation which was overthrown by you know uh a military coup so they don't want to do that similar situation with some of the um what do they call it the coup belt uh the uh uh military Council belt of all these nations throughout subsaharan Africa which are now being ruled by basically just you know Warlords um you know the United States the International Community at large Western Europe doesn't really want to acknowledge the fact that Yemen is run almost entirely by the houthis so there's that that's why the United States will probably never formally declare a war against Yemen because well the United States claims that well why why would we be at war with Yemen we're not at war with Yemen we're at war with the houthis do you see so this is one of those things where it's it's just a game of political semantics and that's probably why it's not going to happen now if we go a little bit further and start playing these diplomatic games a little bit more we realize okay well why would the United States go to war or increase some kind of military you know presence operation whatever when the houthis aren't targeting us so we get into the definition of what is a US ship really quickly because uh someone you know not me but someone could make the claim that no us ships have been attacked you could make that claim uh because in Maritime in the maritime Community it gets really confusing really quickly because you have uh ships uh where they are flagged who owns the ships who operates the ships and whether who the ships are affiliated with and who they're influenced by right so you could say okay well this ship isn't it's not flagged in the United States because most ships are not flagged in the United States it's not owned by an American company uh it's not crewed by an American Crew but it is affiliated with the United States and Israel okay do you see how this kind of gets into some really difficult stuff because what did the houthis say right when they started this whole campaign this whole War right they said they were going to Target American and or they they said they were going to Target Israel Affiliated ships what's the definition of Affiliated do you see virtually no ships are flagged in Israel but virtually no ships are flagged in the United States most FL ships are like flagged in Bermuda or somewhere because of the weird international law kind of way things work out so it's not really strange you know if the unit if the houthis were going to be targeting American flagged ships that there's very few of them right so there's that well then the houthis you know sort of clarify by saying okay well Affiliated means flagged in uh the United States or in Israel and uh we're going to also start targeting ships that are run by or affiliated with American or Israeli companies now that gets a little bit more specific right so now you've got a ship which uh can be owned by an Israeli company and that's who they're targeting and and this is consistent with what the houthis have done so far uh but once we start getting a little bit more down into it it's like well you know the houthis have targeted ships that are not flagged in Israel they're not run by an Israeli company but they're owned by a company that was at one time owned by an Israeli billionaire so now we're just talking about not even Affiliated anymore just influenced by do you see how we can get into real deep political terrain really quickly with this so you can get some money in a nice suit and tie get behind the White House Press Podium and say w no us ships have been attacked well Define us ships if we're talking us flagged ships then yeah okay fine if we're talking about uh ships that are are owned by an American company okay fine but what about ships that have cargo destined for Western ports you see that's why the houthis are going after these American or Israeli ships they're not really affiliated with either country but they're Affiliated through like six degrees of separation kind of thing so that's something to keep in mind as well is you can still make the argument that the houthis aren't attacking us they're not attacking Israel they're attacking very loose definitions here in the International Community a third point that is a little bit more socially acceptable to make is that the United States is kind of at war with the houthis they have launched operation Prosperity Guardian which is one of those sort of Maritime security kind of freedom fre of the Seas freedom of navigation kind of missions the US Navy is hard at work down there blowing stuff up and trying uh and failing most of the time to provide missile defense for cargo ships so they are they're Target we we basically are at war in Yemen we are uh conducting missile strikes uh who the target engagement Authority is I don't know uh but we are launching missiles uh into Yemen and we're claiming self-defense but we're taking out things like radar sites uh state ships uh missile missile sites things like that so it's the United States and I've pointed this out in a few previous wire reports is the United States is very slowly sleepwalking towards an open conflict in Yemen but it's one of those sort of counter Isis conflicts to where it's really just bombing things from the air uh and that kind of gets really sticky because the US Navy can can shoot as many tomahawks as they want to into Yemen and it isn't really going to make any difference as we already know right so again you can make the argument that the United States is kind of at war in Yemen we're launching strikes in selfdefense right right we're launching strikes in self-defense into a nation where Congress has not declared war you know it it just it just has the whole vibe of well this is a peacekeeping operation again you know this is one of those conflicts where we're we're getting a lot of use out of the air quotes as we can clearly see so again it gets very diplomatically chall challenging now coming out of the less controversial reasons let's get into some of the more hot button reasons as to why the United States is probably not looking at conducting a war in Yemen my opinion is uh that the United States thinks that it probably can't win a war there so why start one um my guess is that there's a lot of talk in the Pentagon right now about well what could we do in Yemen because it's very clear we learned this we constant the US military constantly has to relearn this lesson over time but uh the US Navy is figuring out okay our ballistic missile defense and our cruise missile defense kind of sucks um you know the sea wiz system you know the fail lank system and all that kind of stuff or the Army version which is the cram system uh you know it works fine it works great uh however some of the more longrange stuff you know your Ron $2 million specials don't work so well especially if they're trying to defend a a cargo vessel that may be many many miles away so the US Navy shipboard defenses to defend the ship you know the Navy ship itself that's that's all well and good we've got you know we're getting a pretty good return on on taxpayer investment there but if we're trying to use our Navy missiles to defend a cruise uh a civilian ship against a cruise missile you know that's a lot harder to do than you might think um and it turns out we're not getting a good investment at all because the houthis are are lobit of $20,000 missile and we're spending well we're shooting them down with two missiles every time generally speaking that's the doctrine and those missiles cost 2 million dollar a piece so you know we're not getting a super great return on investment on that uh so you know you could again make the argument that the US Navy is actually at war with Yemen we're just not saying so it's one of those peacekeeping Maritime security things now when it comes to what you might traditionally view as like a a hot War like a a a straight up we're going to war kind of thing uh there's probably a lot of people in the Pentagon kicking around the idea that an air War ain't going to work uh and you're going to have to put people on the ground and as you might imagine that that just opens up a whole can of Badness uh because you can have a more moderate position and I'm sure that a lot of people hold the position that a limited in scope uh Special Forces LED intervention into Yemen to overthrow or depose the political leadership of Yemen would probably be the best chance of success and even that is probably going to be very very hard to do you have to remember Yemen has been at war with Saudi Arabia for what 20 years now you know 15 20 years now and Saudi Arabia has been using all those shiny American toys as you know f-16s um f-22s I think f35s for sure and they've been trying to Target the the houthi government for a very long time and look at what the Saudis have done basically nothing uh they haven't really done any they haven't put a dent in any of it so there's this General consensus that um you're probably going to have to have a ground force and nobody wants to have that conversation they want to figure out how can we how can we do this from the air and it's just not going to it's just not going to freaking work uh if that's what you're wanting to do it's one of those things where there are no good Solutions uh if you want to stop the hothy targeting you maybe have to think outside the box um but if you're wanting to stop the houie targeting more directly and you're wanting to restore freedom of the seeds there you're going to have to develop a lot of things really quickly you're going to have to have shipboard defenses that are really good which are just not there uh we need 10 to 15 more years to develop a a ballistic missile defense system for cargo vessels and then even then trying to get the companies to buy it it's just cheaper for them to go Around the Horn of Africa that's kind of the theme as to why why bother with this you're going to tell me that really what are the options there aren't any really good ones the options are to send troops into Yemen overthrow the government with Force do a whole Saddam thing again and and hope that that works out for the best the other solution is to just ignore it ignore the whole region send all the ships around Africa make them pay more for fuel and for the logistical nightmare that that is and of course get the civilians ships to assume more Risk by going through more treacherous waters you know off the Cape of Good Hope um you know just assume that risk because it's a it's a heck of a lot better than putting you know the 80c Airborne on the ground and you know it's not really something that anyone politically wants to do especially during an election year you're going to tell me we're going to do a whole 2003 Invasion style operation in Yemen during an election year when everyone and their cousin is getting out of the military and basically every single military veteran who's worth their salt is telling their kids do not enlist do not go into the military you know it's it's just right now it's a tough time for the military and I I just don't think that or rather I think with a pretty high level of confidence that people in the Pentagon are thinking yeah we can't do this this is not something that's feasible public support wise we're not going to eat the American public support to go Target the houthis in Yemen more directly than we already are sure surely not for a ground force uh we probably could do some limited Secret Squirrel stuff in Yemen and I'm absolutely certain they already have been doing that kind of thing definitely reconnaissance for sure um that's just makes common sense right but anything anything more than that is going to be pretty pretty bad because you got to remember the pentagon's probably quite risk averse due to the first Factor public support just not being there also militarily do we have the hardware to make this happen there there are pro there are probably uh not probably are definitely uh growing sentiment within the defense community that the United States couldn't occupy their way out of a paper bag right now the United States can barely uh maintain the security of their own bases States side you know we have gate Crashers running into US military bases all the time and nobody seems to be doing much about it um so there's a growing sentiment that the military you know you know all respect to them do where it's due I guess uh but the military is just not what it used to be and there's growing um uh assumptions that the US military really can't militarily do the things that it claims it can do you know and we see this due to Ukraine you know part of me you know part of me thinks well uh well first of all the entirety of me thinks that the Ukrainian war is largely being run by NATO and the United States there's probably not a single Ukrainian General is making one decision at all it's all all being run by the US Military and I know that this may be controversial to say but I think that's fairly obvious at this point but regardless of that I honestly think you know part of me thinks that uh the ukrainians would probably be better off just not listening to the US uh in some regards and just doing their own thing we already see this with the weapons that they're being issued they're not really what the United States is giving Ukraine both in terms of Doctrine and in terms of the hardware is not working clearly so you take that same mentality and you apply it to Yemen you know how many generals or how many commanders or senior defense officials or even senior defense uh companies you know private Capital you know how many of these people can really sell a congressman on their capabilities in Yemen I don't think any of them can you know I just don't think it's something that we could we could do I mean it's It's A Hard Sell already because Yemen's got really rugged terrain it's a big country Logistics are really hard to do there uh the yenis or the the houthis control a good portion of you know all the key terrain there uh we would have to build a lot of bases right here along the Saudi border and then hopefully the Saudis would help us out I'm sure they would but you know we'd have to build that infrastructure and even then that's a long flight to where most of where most of the fighting is going to have to take place you know it's it's it's not an easy it's not an easy place it's not flat you know it's not like built for the equipment that we have and the United States has proven time and time again that we can barely manage a a a political you know Embassy evacuation kind of thing so you know again not to just take cheap shots you know at the defense community at large it it's really just becoming kind of palpable that can could we could we invade Yemen could we do it successfully I don't know I I I just don't know and because of that uncertainty my guess is that at the Pentagon there's a lot a lot more uncertainty and that un certainty probably carries forward and you know there's probably just not a whole lot of people that are willing to do it especially considering what's the other option what's the alternative costing more money so you're going to tell me that I can keep my job I cannot lose American lives I can uh basically neutralize the threat and all I'm going to do is spend more American tax dollars I'll take the tax dollar Solution that's what defense officials are probably thinking just send the ships Around the Horn of Africa and wait until this whole thing boils over and that kind of um leads into the next very controversial solution or or or point i' I'd like to make which is that um one of the big reasons why the defense industry I think personally just again my opinion one of the reasons why I think that they're super super keen on just kind of ignoring the issue and flinging some you know Navy missiles at things and and just kind of going with that route one of the reasons why I think that they're super Keen with this and they're not really looking to amplify this as like a boogeyman situation is because it causes difficult questions to be asked such as why are the houthis targeting shipping anyway you're going to tell me that the houthis have maintained control of Yemen since 2013 2015 I I guess if you want to say that and you're going to tell me that they've only started targeting Western shipping in the past six months or rather since a specific date you know starts asking very difficult questions um such as uh the question to be asked uh fairly fairly commonly I guess is well um if the Israeli occupation of Gaza were to stop would that not mean that the houthis would stop targeting shipping I don't know the answer to that and I'm sure that there are a lot of people out there uh who would say no uh that the houthis are just going to continue targeting anyway um but I think it's I think it's kind of a hard question to answer I mean if the houthis were so hellbent on taken down the west then why did they only start their their Maritime targeting operation after October 7th and the not even that but the the follow on events that occurred in the weeks after that you know it's like one of those things where you you really have to ask a question and and me even asking the question is going to anger quite a lot of people but the question is why is it why just take a step back for a minute and and ask yourself why is it that whether it's true or not I don't know I don't know but why is it that an Insurgent group if you you call them that the houthis an Insurgent Rebel warlord type group walking around with the AK47s in the standard you know terrorist looking Garb why is it these people out of everyone else on the planet why is it that in 2024 these people are claiming they are going to war to stop a humanitarian crisis does that not just blow your mind for a second you know whether or not it's true I I don't really know or and I don't really care but I find it to be very very odd that the houthi rebels in Yemen they are fighting for what the West should say is or a humanitarian cause like that's what they claim again I'm not saying that it's true or not they could just be the counterargument that as well the houthis are just taking the opportunity of Discord being swed in the Middle East to take shots at Israel okay fine whatever but man it it it it probably makes a press secretary sweat a pretty good bit because you've got the houthis who get on their TV and say yeah we're we're targeting American ships in the Red Sea or targeting Israeli ships in the Red Sea okay Mr hthy Man why why are you going to war with Israel well because they're killing civilians in Gaza that's what the houth say okay all right um that's a new one um we don't have the same answer okay well Al-Qaeda let's go back to 1998 Al-Qaeda why do you hate America well because America is evil all right fine all right North Korea why do you hate America well because the Imperial imperialist capitalist okay whatever China why do you hate America well because you know uh America bad all right fine whatever who why do you hate America well because they're supporting Israelis killing children in Gaza allegedly okay that's new you know so people like me have got to talk for half an hour to explain the strangeness of how we get to where we're at so you guys may think it's a simple question why is it the United States has not gone to war with Yemen why is that well I think it's largely twofold I think the answer is probably the more controversial reason one we probably couldn't win the war if we started it and two if we start the war we got to answer some questions about that war such as you know we needed a weapons of mass destruction claim to get into Iraq to take out Saddam did we not that was needed to pers to persuade the American people the houthis are claiming that they are waging their war on humanitarian grounds it's a little bit harder to defend against whether or not it's true again whatever uh but the claim is being made right so now you once the claim is made you got to respond to it in the international Arena and I just don't think that people are prepared the American people just are not prepared as well even people who are informed in in America and think that they know everything uh are not really prepared to answer these really tough questions uh and and more importantly they kind of dance around what all this means now the reason why I've dedicated so much time to talking about this is that I still would not discount the United States getting more directly involved in Yemen there is growing sentiment I don't know how I don't know how much I agree with it but I will express it because it gets expressed to be nearly daily there is growing sentiment in the United States that a another 911 style event will be needed to either distract from what's going on in is Israel Gaza or to enable more substantial actions in the Israel Gaza War I don't know either way but I can say that I'm not discounting the potential right now you've got the White House whether or not you agree with it or not okay I I it's gotten to the point where I I just don't want to talk about it because it just brings it just brings about so much IR that I just don't have the bandwidth to deal with but right now I have to say it anyway right now the White House itself is saying look BB you are directly trying to drag the United States into fighting your War for you you know that's what the White House that's the White House's official freaking policy you know they have said this directly so uh whether or not that's true I don't know it's up for you to decide I really don't I really don't care uh but there's growing evidence that that's the case I mean you know it it sure does seem like that and you know what would be a really fantastic way to get the United States uh into the Gaza Israel thing is if you were to put Americans in close proximity uh to the whole Gaza uh area and then Target them in some way you know almost as if you know we just were to get them to do I don't know say a humanitarian Bridge you know some kind of Pier or something uh that's just a sitting duck that doesn't it's not really doing anything um you know it is giving some humanitarian aid but not nearly enough but it conveniently puts Americans right there and you know what would be really super super great to to drag America into the war as well is if we without telling the Americans we landed an Israeli helicopter near the pier and we now suddenly made that Pier a military Target for Hamas or HZ or whoever you know that would be a really great way to drag the United States into the war but you know when you know what would also be a great way to drag the United States into this mess even more so than we already are is to kick stuff off with the with the amenis with the hoies down there um you know the United States right now is exceptionally ripe for a whole Gulf of tonen or even a like a Lucitania kind of situation so you know trouble on the high seas could be a foot and let me let me put it to you this way I absolutely would not be taking any cruises or any passenger any passenger vessels going through this region I think that's fairly obvious but I'll say it more explicitly clearly because the potential is very very ripe for either a legitimate action or a false flag action to drag the United States more directly into varying conflicts throughout the Middle East so I know that you're probably expecting I myself was expecting a little bit more of a shorter answer to this question but I think the conversation I think this question really triggers a conversation and it really kind of triggers a lot more complex thoughts and just well you know the US is dumb or the US is stupid well no it's more to it than that um you know the military can't do it but they could do it but not with the support they have now and not with the training they have now and let's not forget that you know this is an election year and just just to plant the seed just to plant the seed for what may happen in the future this little uh this little uh last bullet point here on this last slide uh it is probably going to be a little bit more important than you might think so again wrapping things up just to REM myself of of uh what's probably going to happen next well like I have here on the slide probably more the same uh probably you know increased Naval strikes um more Naval targeting you know we're going to probably start stationing a a carrier or two instead of in the Arabian Gulf or the Arabian Sea in that sort of region probably more down in the Red Sea area however it hasn't really been super effective you know a carrier is really not the best tool for the job unless you're conducting like air strikes into Yemen which we have done but uh you're probably just going to see more of that and it's just going to go it's just going to slip right by because you know the mainstream media didn't want to talk about it because it's not interesting uh but you know one of these bullet points right here just it kind of reminds me and it reminds everyone else out there to kind of be aware that the United States is probably ignoring this issue because we are understanding that conflict in Lebanon might actually um make this event OB or um overcome by events so the term OB or overcome by events is a term that is used um traditionally in more military context but basically it means it doesn't matter anymore you know um well we're going to strike this target over here uh because you know it's it's a you know legitimate military Target oh don't worry about that Target anymore it's obbe meaning the front line has shifted don't bother with it anymore because even if you do strike it it isn't going to matter I think the whole US government is planning on Yemen being obbe by the expansion of the war in Gaza Israel area so you know I I know this is a very very controversial topic for a lot of people but I think that's the answer I think the United States is playing for Israel to go to war with Lebanon and because of that they don't really give one Hoot about Yemen they're just Bing their time and and hoping that people can just take the southern route around the Cape of Good Hope and you know Screw you to Mayers kind of situation and you know just pay more money in shipping and the price of goods becomes more expensive since when has the US government ever cared about Rising consumer goods cost or the rising cost of anything really especially over the past few years so they're happy to take the bullet they're happy to to keep lobbing missiles at the houth They Don't Really Care they're not really interested in solving the problem militarily because it's too costly both in human lives and in experience and in equipment the US government probably can't uh probably can't afford it at the moment you know they can they can add one they can add a bunch of ones and zeros to their bank accounts all they want to but it isn't going to solve the fact that you still got to have the munition in your hand if you're going to go to war and our defense production capacity is just not there so you know all of these very highly controversial answers to a very simple question are really highlighting just how complex the world has gotten and how nonsensical it has become to even explain or even discuss the tiniest possible detail you know I I hint I hint at it all the time and I deliberately say it when I think I can get away with it uh but man this this whole Israel Gaza conflict it it it is militarily speaking not that interesting um it's a just a classic you know war in the Middle East that is very very similar to what we've been you know what we've seen in the past but on the information front man man it has changed it really it really has changed you've got literally sometimes you've got cases of of well we can't ask we can't answer this question as to why mayor now has to go around the Cape of Good Hope because when we answer that question it's going to cause other questions to be asked about what's going on in Gaza and what's going on with Israel and I have never seen a conflict like this in in my whole life and I've never read about a conflict where information has been so weaponized except for a couple of other conflicts uh throughout the history of of the world and you know it's not very often that you get a a case of well wait a minute how is it that the yenis taking a uh taking a a a a remote control boat and detonating it you know right over the rudder of a commercial vessel how does that incident cause questions about World War II well you know I'll leave you guys to fill in the gaps but man I tell you it it's gotten rough out there and there and you and you really see the frustration when it comes to people trying to talk about these issues and they really get to a point to where they're like yeah man I I I can't explain that because it causes a lot of other very serious questions to be asked and we're just not ready for it the American populace couldn't give one Hoot the American populist couldn't put Afghanistan on a map they couldn't point it out we were there for 20 years much less Yemen they don't care they made the American populists out there even you know conservatives and liberals alike man they really just don't care they may say they do but they just don't um they really don't care to get to the bottom of the truth because the truth is very very inconvenient sometimes so again I I hate to be exceptionally ranty today but I uh you know the mood struck I guess and I I felt like I needed to kind of elaborate on this because it is a very interesting question why is the United States not going to war with Yemen well well we have to take the Vladimir Putin approach and we have to go all the way back to the early 1900s and really get to the bottom of this so that's one of the reasons why I can say though I can say the houthis are causing a lot of questions to be asked um you know I don't think that I think it's very hard to for for anyone to agree that the houthi cause is just however however they are causing very very challenging questions to be asked right so who who' have thought that a kind of like a a nation being run by War Warlords in the Middle East a nation where nobody really cared what they were doing at all until recently um the very smallest actions by them to they they've sunk what three three commercial ships you know out of the thousands of ships that go around the Earth every single day they've sunk three of them uh with semi-improvised Munitions and now we're having great existential crisis being caused by the questions that that this kind of incident is bringing about so again I know um uh at times these kind of explanations get quite verbose but I thought this might be a little bit helpful for some of you out there so um yeah I think I'll leave I'll think I'll leave it there and and and see what uh what backlash this one results in um but I think it may result in some pretty interesting discussions moving forward so again thank you all for watching I know this is probably a lot more um a lot more than what anybody bargain for this morning but uh we'll roll with this and we'll uh continue on with the reports and we'll see how this whole crisis works out hopefully it doesn't expand hopefully we can all have a peaceful into this Sol this this situation but uh we always have to be on the lookout for if this um uh takes a a a rather more violent move into uh less than peaceful situation so again something to keep in mind just be advised that people you don't care about and a nation you don't care about has a way of finding you at the end of the day especially when it comes to commercial shipping so um you know something to to keep in mind moving forward so again I've talked this one enough to death so I think I'll roll it up for today but thank you all for watching and we will see you next time and as always fight in the shade