Afghanistan Intel Update: 24 August 2021

hello again everyone welcome back to the s2 underground i just wanted to offer a very quick uh update on the uh kabul situation as of this morning uh 24 august and this is being recorded at around uh 1300 eastern standard time so just a few updates really not much for today but let's jump right into it so the first big item of note is that the taliban is no longer allowing locals people who hold afghan passports to the airport uh taliban senior leadership leadership the spokes spokesman of the taliban has issued statements saying that they're no longer allowing any local afghans to leave uh it is it is not clear if these rules and regulations apply to interpreters or people who work for us or or if it's just strictly normal afghan citizens we're not entirely sure but it almost certainly applies to anyone who lives who's an afghan local so they're not being allowed through the taliban checkpoints but we'll talk a little bit more about that once we get on the actual map but this is also indirectly affecting uh coalition or alternative passport holders because they're trying to get through the taliban checkpoints and they're being either beaten or extorted or abused in some way to get assport holders because they're trying to get through the taliban checkpoints and they're being either beaten or extorted or abused in some way to get through those checkpoints so most people are trying to find ways around them and we're working on that and we'll talk about a little bit more about that on the map so related to this really guidance has come down from a few different sources department of state guys on the ground and really just anyone with common sense can now see that it would be inadvisable to use the main gate so embassy personnel are now recommending people avoid the the main gate into the airport as the taliban have locked that down pretty much not really allowing anyone through so the abbey gate or the north gate would seem to be the best alternatives to get onto hkia at this time but we'll talk about it on the map and on the american political front there has been a deadline that has been issued by the taliban for the removal of all american soldiers and coalition forces as well by august 31st so the taliban have issued the ultimatum of get everything and get everybody out by august 31st or face consequences right that's when they're gonna start shooting peop e issued the ultimatum of get everything and get everybody out by august 31st or face consequences right that's when they're gonna start shooting people i guess uh the biden regime has indicated and stated that they will abide by this uh this deadline even though everyone with two brain cells to rub together can clearly see that this is not going to be feasible uh this is not really something that we can fix right the it's almost like at the risk of delving too far into the politics the the the atmosphere the atmospherics within the american um uh presidential regime indicate that they're going to try to stick to this august 31st deadline and basically anyone who's left in afghanistan after august 31st is going to be a consenting adult uh who chose make made the choice to stay even though that's completely bs we would be very very lucky even to get the americans out by august 31st uh even at the rate where we're uh we're currently conducting the airlift a report came out today that an american aircraft or a coalition aircraft is landing at that airport and departing every 45 minutes and that's just not good enough right now to get just the people outside the airport out and that's ng at that airport and departing every 45 minutes and that's just not good enough right now to get just the people outside the airport out and that's not including any rescue missions which have been very very few and far between even among the secret squirrels who are you know doing their best but their hands are tied politically and this is uh this is rapidly making the situation more and more desperate uh so the us is going to try to stick to the august 31 deadline the the president said that we're going to stick by it uh the taliban said that they will not respond to any request to extend it so i guess we'll have to see we've only got a few more days and we've got thousands of people to get out of there the it has become public knowledge so i'll speak to it now that plans to retake bagram air base have have really stalled this was something that was discussed pretty much in the beginning the option to retake bagram it's easily defendable it makes a lot of sense a lot more capacity and we can have a lot more ease of logistics there's just a bigger area and it's a lot easier to get in and out of there but those plans have been shot down by u.s political leadership so we're just i 's just a bigger area and it's a lot easier to get in and out of there but those plans have been shot down by u.s political leadership so we're just it looks like as of right now we're just going to stick with h kaya things may change things already may be in the motion that we're not privy to but for right now it looks like h kaya or bust pretty much so not a great situation on the political front uh also slightly good news but it's just something i wanted to mention uh taliban forces are moving in rapid numbers up north into the panshir region and uh they are being pulled from the h kaya area to go combat uh the northern alliance guys that are up there um it looks like the northern alliance is now that the taliban war machine has gotten spun up and they've gotten a lot of fighters up there those dudes are not not doing well i saw that massoud said that the other day that they're looking to probably surrender within the next couple of days so who knows those guys have have targets on their backs no matter what so i guess we'll follow it and see i'll show you here on the map in just a bit what the situation is and it really hasn't changed that much and also coming back to the hki a it and see i'll show you here on the map in just a bit what the situation is and it really hasn't changed that much and also coming back to the hki airport situation a lot there's been a lot of confusion about paperwork at the gates as of now from the story that we're getting which is kind of like a bad version of the telephone game uh only hard copy passports and or green cards are really getting through with any success we're not seeing any very many people get through uh the gates on to hkia with anything less however it it should be noted that if you can manage to get inside the airport with whatever you've got the the evacuation personnel will work with you and will uh will figure out a way to get you on an aircraft but that's if uh if you can get through the gate which is going to be a a pretty tough challenge at this point so let's go ahead and jump to the map and i'll speak to all that stuff that i glossed over about the situation on the ground all right so here we are on the map as you can see the situation on the south side of hkia inside the airport perimeter has has changed a little bit uh it looks like the taliban have with overnight have or within the past 24 hours s of hkia inside the airport perimeter has has changed a little bit uh it looks like the taliban have with overnight have or within the past 24 hours since the last briefing on this have uh restricted traffic so this now area i'm marking it red again just because that that's it's really a taliban stronghold at this point and not very many people at all are getting actually getting through the main gate uh there are heavy heavy taliban presence here at the main gate itself and there are still pretty good sized crowds however it looks like most people have shifted east to the abbey gate we were able to find several social media videos of cars actually being able to get through here pretty easily so it just looks like normal afghan traffic but there's still a decent number of people here but most people it seems most locals know that the taliban is not letting them through here so they're going to go over to the abbey gate or or even more inconvenient than north gate likewise here at the actual terminal itself uh there are several uh taliban red units that have set up shop here uh the taliban the baudry 313 unit the very famous they reenacted the whole iwo jima thing for their propagan ban red units that have set up shop here uh the taliban the baudry 313 unit the very famous they reenacted the whole iwo jima thing for their propaganda efforts you've probably seen that photograph on on being spread around on social media these guys are right here they are directly across from their american counterparts and really the situation is pretty static here on this side of the airport now i'm pushing forward over here into this big purple blob i'm labeling this as really just key terrain for now we've got several social media posts of of afghans the the perimeter is very fluid okay the situation is is not under control by any means uh the situation is still fluid and the situation kind of gets out of hand for the for the guys on the ground who are trying to corral everybody into the right spots and we've seen a few social media posts of afghans who are staged over here on this side of the post either ones who came through the east gate or through the abbey gate uh and the ones that are they're being staged here they're just running uh in just big herds of several hundred people across the runway uh to the staging areas here on the other side on the north side because the running uh in just big herds of several hundred people across the runway uh to the staging areas here on the other side on the north side because they can see from this side of the airport they can see aircraft being loaded over here so that is a huge concern especially with aircraft landing it's just making everything more confusing and it's slowing everything down there's just so many people the situation is is getting more and more desperate by the minute and it's uh people are able to detect that and they're taking uh taking measures into their own hands to get across as far as taliban dispositions we do have let's see if i can go ahead and bring up the uh taliban ops all right so i've got that turned on and as you can see right here on the north side we've gotten a lot of let me see if i could tilt this it's going to kill the resolution but let me tilt the map just a little bit and maybe we can get that 3d effect we can see that the mountains to the north side of hkia and a few other places along that ridge line are now being used as lpop sites so basically taliban fighters are up there on those ridgelines observing the americans and the coalition forces down here on the nort ed as lpop sites so basically taliban fighters are up there on those ridgelines observing the americans and the coalition forces down here on the north side of the base they can get a pretty good line of sight up in there so that's what they're doing it's a long way but it's something to keep in mind is for the guys on the ground who i'm sure already know these guys are watching everything you do and they're logging everything as well so shifting back top down again let's shift over to the roads so we've been trying to find different ways of getting around taliban checkpoints as it seems right now abby gates seems to be a pretty good way of getting around you do have to go through a couple of taliban pop-up checkpoints we don't know exactly where these are these pucks right here are probably inaccurate at this at this point abby gate is really congested you can see here there's really not a whole lot of room to maneuver uh north gate is a little easier uh however there's the canal and the canal is just full it's waist deep with sewage right now so that's not great and it's obviously making everything a lot it's catalyzing the terrain so that people can't really get across very easi right now so that's not great and it's obviously making everything a lot it's catalyzing the terrain so that people can't really get across very easily and even so it's just a very bad situation northgate you can get to a little easier it's easier to get around taliban checkpoints they're letting people go to the north gate very much pretty much unmolested at this point unlike the abbey gate and or the east gate right now abby gate and north gate are really the primary ways for getting into h kaya so let's push over to the roads we've been trying to find the roads or different routes that people can use so in the actual city itself hkia the perimeter is a big enough problem as is but it's infinitely harder when you've got taliban here out in the city so at the risk of slowing down the the recording significantly let's go and talk actually by hkia first so zooming here to the north of hkia russian road from right here about to here you can see this on the kmz it's pretty much clear we were able to find videos of people driving very clearly there's really not a whole lot of traffic over the past 24 hours here it does get a little congested here as you start to get back into the city early there's really not a whole lot of traffic over the past 24 hours here it does get a little congested here as you start to get back into the city and of course it's congested congested here with just foot traffic clogging a lot of stuff so up next is the first of may road if i can go right there yep first of may road here down to the south this road is pretty much clear the whole way so for those that are trying to make their way into kabul from outside the city if you can make it past the checkpoints that we don't know where they're at but the checkpoints on the border of the city this road is pretty clear also airport road to the west so pushing out to the west of hkia up until about right here uh is pretty clear uh very easy traffic there's really not a whole lot there's no taliban checkpoints that we've been able to see on the videos we've found on social media and the traffic is is not a bad uh not really bad uh also down here on uh what is this road uh lysey merriam road here in the middle of the city so a lot of these roads the bigger roads that the two track roads in the city are are pretty clear uh as is the let's see here i can find it yeah there it is uh taimani roa s the bigger roads that the two track roads in the city are are pretty clear uh as is the let's see here i can find it yeah there it is uh taimani road i'm not sure if i'm pronouncing that right it meets up here with airport road and this traffic circle is clear now all of these roads we're listening uh just to help it probably isn't helping very much but it at least shows that there are major roads that are free of taliban presence for at least vehicle traffic now obviously if you're kind of conspicuous or in a convoy or something like that you're probably going to get some kind of uh unwanted attention but really most of the congestion is around uh hkia itself the main gate is starting to like i mentioned to be relieved of its congestion via the taliban forcing people away from the gate so abby gate is of course getting much much busier and north gate is also getting much much busier so that's really the as much of the situation on the ground that has changed over the past day or so and hopefully this was helpful in pointing that out so before we close today just wanted to bring this slide back up uh this slide says august 23rd because there really has not been any change that i t so before we close today just wanted to bring this slide back up uh this slide says august 23rd because there really has not been any change that i can i feel comfortable as an analyst calling it right now the fighting is just too close to call taliban forces are still massing up in the north areas in the panshere region but it's really too close to call at this point as to which areas the northern alliance still control it's really highly contested and as always all of this data will be on our odyssey page we're also setting up a google drive disposable sort of burner google drive account for those of you who are having a hard time downloading from odyssey odyssey is far more reliable and it's basically censorship proof google drive much less so google google doesn't like the humanitarian efforts that we're undertaking then they can easily delete us from there but it's a lot easier to download to a mobile device like our kmz's and things like that so we're offering two different solutions for that and again here is this slide for those of you who are just at all levels of the situation uh if you need help or you're trying to figure out how to get help here are some resources for hose of you who are just at all levels of the situation uh if you need help or you're trying to figure out how to get help here are some resources for you so hopefully this has been helpful again we're going to continue to follow this situation because if people think that the first days of this airlift in which people were falling off of aircraft if people think that was horrifically bad that was just the beginning okay that was the beginning of the end when we get to the end of the end it's going to be much much worse so we're doing what we can to help alleviate that and get as many people inside the wire and on an aircraft as possible so thank you to everyone who has stuck around and put up with our endless spam on the subject and we're going to continue pushing forward with any pertinent updates and we're going to continue to update this kmz several times a day 24 7 until the situation is over there we go hopefully this has been helpful again uh stay tuned for more stuff and we will see you guys next time so always remember fight in the shade