Ukraine: Setting the Stage

hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground this is a special topical intelligence update for the seemingly imminent ukrainian war for friday the 21st of january 2022. as always this brief is being recorded the day prior on the 20th of january let's start by covering some international events that have taken place in europe over the past 24 to 48 hours the larger one that actually occurred a couple of weeks ago but is rapidly becoming more of a pressing issue is the submarine cable that has been cut between the mainland of norway and the svalbard archipelago so for those of you who don't understand what the significance of this is 99 of all communications on planet earth take place uh over undersea cables quite literally very large cables that are strung between nations between continents that actually carry information these cables serve as a vital link of information from country to country and serve as really a basis for the internet as we know it we can't really send information from one place to another quickly via wireless methods such as satellites so we have to rely on these what are essentially bottlenecks in the form of submarine or undersea cables and just a ireless methods such as satellites so we have to rely on these what are essentially bottlenecks in the form of submarine or undersea cables and just a couple of weeks ago norway found out that one of their cables between the mainland of norway and the svalbard archipelago was cut this cable was of somewhat military nature it was really for their satellite communications network for their space program and things like that but i'm sure it also had a military use they used this cable to send and receive information from that massive satellite communications facility now i should mention this in the context of the ukrainian conflict because this is a very significant event russia since the end of the cold war has really looked at different ways of asserting power and dominance over the western world as one might expect in a post-nuclear age meaning that russia has nukes the united states has nukes were set on the nuclear front but russia has spent a very large part of their military their naval budget to create a special directorate which is meant to map and tap and destroy undersea cables this is evidenced by their really their naval efforts and their submarine technologies over the h is meant to map and tap and destroy undersea cables this is evidenced by their really their naval efforts and their submarine technologies over the past a few decades but re as of late we're starting to see a lot more of this technology come into the open and russia has made it a significant part of their naval mission to conduct intelligence operations on a lot of these cables that are on the sea floor either quite literally sending a little mini submarine down from a larger submarine to grab on with little mechanical arms to grab onto these cables and quite literally drill into them to try to tap the information so there's an intelligence gathering thing russia also recognizing that the majority of internet traffic goes through these cables in a wartime setting their mission would be to not just to tap these cables to try to get the information that's in them but all but try to destroy the cables effectively decapitating most military communications and civilian communications without ever firing a shot this is a big deal for europe as well as the rest of the world the united states as well russia themselves do not have a very large uh need for submarine cables for undersea cab pe as well as the rest of the world the united states as well russia themselves do not have a very large uh need for submarine cables for undersea cables because russia is of course the largest nation on the planet they span what 12 time zones or something like that so they have a large land mass with which to send and receive information from one side of their empire to another and almost all of russia's allies border russia themselves so it's quite an easy a little bit easier for russia to have a solid communications infrastructure whereas the united states europe the united kingdom places like that have to rely on these undersea cables to maintain communications so the reason that this submarine cable being cut is a big deal is that um we don't know if this has ever happened before we know that the russians have we've got pretty solid concrete evidence that the russians have successfully or at least tried to tap undersea cables before we've got evidence of that that's become public knowledge lately we know that they map things we know they practice trying to set explosives on these cables to sever them but we don't know if they've i can't personally think of any ins if any case now they practice trying to set explosives on these cables to sever them but we don't know if they've i can't personally think of any ins if any case where a cable has actually been severed intentionally and a norwegian shipping or rather a cable laying company who of course once again once this cable was cut they sent a repair team out that repair team discovered that it had been very deliberately cut so we here in our very very limited uh intelligence picture of the geopolitical sphere right we think that this is probably a warning to europe essentially russia saying hey don't mess with us in ukraine let us do what we got to do in ukraine and we won't cut any more of your cables this sounds very much like something putin would do it sounds very much like the senior military leadership like lavrov would say this sounds very much like russian doctrine at this point but again this is very much speculation but i did want to bring this up because a submarine cable and undersea cable being cut is a very very significant event that we need to pay attention to the other big bit of news has been the significant russian naval activity over the past 24 to 48 hours a large flotilla of russia to pay attention to the other big bit of news has been the significant russian naval activity over the past 24 to 48 hours a large flotilla of russian landing craft and amphibious assault ships has left port in the baltic sea with the destination unknown technically but presumably the black sea so far the ships are as follows the minsk the kaliningrad the korolev the olenagors goroniek the georgie hobodonazets and the peter morgan of have left port and are again like i mentioned presumably headed to the black sea the first three ships make up the bulk of the baltic sea fleet when it comes to their amphibious assault craft and the other three ships are much older craft but still capable that are on loan from the north sea fleet moving on to sweden this is something that might be unrelated but it might also be a very significant again threat to the rest of europe is that sweden has observed several significant unmanned aerial vehicles in the vicinity of several of their nuclear power plants as of the past day or so this is something that is currently being currently being investigated no one's really quite sure what's going on but again with all of this significant military activity at is currently being currently being investigated no one's really quite sure what's going on but again with all of this significant military activity within europe it's really something that that should be noted additionally the three nations of estonia latvia lithuania have been offering weapons to ukraine they just need to get through their various political systems to you know sign the sign the bottom line to make sure that happens again lithuania latvia and estonia uh coming to ukraine's aid in the form of military shipments they're probably not going to be able to offer very much but a lot of european nations are stepping up to supply ukraine with military arms if they cannot provide troops for their defense on the opposite side of the spectrum germany has refused all aid to ukraine they're not giving them any weapons whatsoever and it's very much a germany has slammed the door in ukraine's face when it comes to military equipment uh also relations between poland and ukraine are not super great right now uh historically uh poland and ukraine have not really gotten along so well uh as one might expect due to the fallout from the the cold war and that you know decades of of bac d and ukraine have not really gotten along so well uh as one might expect due to the fallout from the the cold war and that you know decades of of back and forth on that but recently as in the past couple of days there has been a significant uh significant problem on the border with regards to rail logistics so both poland and ukraine have been trading accusations at each other over this poland states that or accuses ukraine of stopping all train traffic uh rail traffic from ukraine into poland all trade what's uh shutting it all down um and that hurting the polish economy well the ukraine has stated that poland has not abided by their agreements when it comes to trade and things like that so it's really hard to tell who started this but there's a little bit of a spat when it comes to rail logistics between poland and ukraine now this matters because poland's got to be sweating right now i'm sure that their military forces have deployed uh quietly a lot of uh troops to the ukrainian border because essentially if russia invades ukraine depending on how far russia goes uh poland might be the last the last bastion ukraine is definitely the only thing keeping russia off poland's border depending on how far russia goes uh poland might be the last the last bastion ukraine is definitely the only thing keeping russia off poland's border and that's got to be upsetting poland quite a bit likewise rail problems if there are rail logistical problems if ukraine has stopped shipments into you into poland if that is true that means that the rail logistics are undergoing some kind of uh upset right and this is going to be a huge problem for anyone trying to egress from ukraine you know during this war that's you know many people ourselves included think is about to break out so for those people who are in ukraine and think oh well i'll just hop on a train to poland well you might not be able to because of the railway congestion due to this little diplomatic spat between the countries so again this that might be a remote possibility don't really know but again logistics is one of those things that people often forget or discount in times of conflict and this could be a very big problem in the future i also wanted to touch on kazakhstan for a minute the russian deployment to kazakhstan has come to an end and the airborne troops that took part in that are now being relocated e zakhstan for a minute the russian deployment to kazakhstan has come to an end and the airborne troops that took part in that are now being relocated either around russia or into belarus or places like that for those of you who weren't following the kazakhstan event it was basically over as soon as it started there was a small coup that occurred in kazakhstan the the dictator was attempted to be overthrown by a smaller contingent of politicians and and things like that and the the coup was put down with the aid of russian airborne troops and other forces that that came to kazakhstan's aid to help quell that rebellion kazakhstan's had a dictator style relationship in the political sphere in kazakhstan for a while now so it's not surprising but this for sure did one of two things for russia one it allowed their airborne troops to again get one last little training exercise with live rounds if you know what i mean uh for airborne operations but it also uh maybe pushed back the timeline that russia had for uh invading ukraine if that is in fact what they're going to do yeah the airborne units the russian airborne is going to be very very much needed when it comes to securing key um key fact what they're going to do yeah the airborne units the russian airborne is going to be very very much needed when it comes to securing key um key locations like airfields as well as the assault for uh kiev here in a minute so that's really all i've got for significant events outside of ukraine let's go ahead and take a look at some reference material that we're going to need to know uh when this conflict kicks off and that is the composition of the standard russian battalion tactical group the btg concept was created much for the same reasons that the united states bct or brigade combat team was created for regional conflicts around the world russia has historically not been super great when it comes to expeditionary things so unlike the united states military whose main goal has been expeditionary ventures russia has really not structured their military around that so much but we can talk more about russian military doctrine later really what i wanted to focus on is some terms and graphics for specifically the btg because the btg is what we're going to be talking about a lot this is the main style of unit that is being used in that has been used and will continue to be used in is what we're going to be talking about a lot this is the main style of unit that is being used in that has been used and will continue to be used in ukraine if this conflict gets any more kinetic than it already has so let's go over what exactly a btg is and what kinds of units uh subunits are inside one right so symbology for a battalion tactical group btg it's a smaller style unit it's not really the upper echelons and organizational structure for btgs is very interesting russia likes to use these btgs in very small areas independent of one another so rather than deploying entire regiments or cores or armies around russia they prefer to cherry-pick btgs from all over the russian federation and send them to a specific area to work together so it's more of a it's i i don't really know how to describe it other than maybe it's a little bit more autonomous than the traditional uh russian style of command structure but essentially this is supposed to be the swiss army knife of russian military units so within a battalion tactical group within it within a btg the main meat and potatoes is the motor rifle company in other words mechanized infantry so one motor rifle company consists of within it within a btg the main meat and potatoes is the motor rifle company in other words mechanized infantry so one motor rifle company consists of usually two motor rifle platoons and a weapons platoon now the weapons platoon can of course be anything from heavy weapons to some kind of towed weaponry that we can get into a minute this can vary quite a bit right um but usually usually this is the basic uh composition and there are usually three of these motor rifle companies per btg up next is artillery so this is a very significant part of the battalion tactical group they not only have their mechanized infantry but they also have artillery on board to handle any kind of support actions for those infantry and this is a very significant part most russian artillery is in the form of rocket artillery but the btgs have been observed to be using 122 millimeter self-propelled howitzers as their main force for btgs again like i mentioned this can be swapped out so we can have a lot of mrls or multiple rocket launcher systems being used in in lieu of the normal howitzers that we might see but for the most part again this is the basic complement within the artillery battery there's also n in lieu of the normal howitzers that we might see but for the most part again this is the basic complement within the artillery battery there's also a specific mortar platoon and then also again a couple of platoons of towed guns now again in the russian military doctrine they have a very long history with sort of anti-tank guns and towed guns and things like that these can be mounted so we might see some kind of track based guns we might see the normal toad guns towed behind like a normal truck usually the russians like to have these in uh direct fire mode so we're talking like um anti-tank uh guns that are being used in direct fire mode in an anti-tank role but these also can function uh in an indirect fire roll so uh for engaging targets uh at a longer distance up next we have various uh different kinds of platoons that kind of fall underneath the the structure and they can go wherever they're needed first up is recon so again the one of the downsides of the btg is that it doesn't really have the ability to project power beyond its own footprint so much but they do have a very small reconnaissance effort organic to the btg so that's interesting also they have an asg 17 platoon ts own footprint so much but they do have a very small reconnaissance effort organic to the btg so that's interesting also they have an asg 17 platoon typically for those that don't understand what that is that's typically like a an automatic grenade launcher platoon similar to the u.s mark 19. also russians again have a very long history of using flame projection platoons usually these are uh rocket based or rocket propelled flame throwers some some weaponry that is again unique to the russian russian military doctrine we don't really tend to use that so much in the u.s doctrine anymore but again the russians do use that and again they also have a specific the russian doctrine calls it a machine gun platoon but think of this as your weapons platoon again uh just taking into account various different kinds of weaponry that can either be dismounted or mounted so again these guys all kind of work together they're not really going to be operating so much as an independent platoon for different things and then finally a very small ada detachment we're talking maybe a couple of dudes with uh with some sa7s so some man pads just for localized very short range air defense and then finally achment we're talking maybe a couple of dudes with uh with some sa7s so some man pads just for localized very short range air defense and then finally we have various support functions we have signals supply engineers maintainers and medical so again just like a very very much similar to a western style structure uh with regards to the support functions so that is the basic structure of the battalion tactical group as used by russia in the you know recent times like i mentioned again this can vary so much this will vary widely when it comes to support units and what other units are going to be working in conjunction with various btgs to accomplish their mission some btgs will get an extra grodd style mrls system we might see you know trench diggers being used we've already seen pictures of those being attached to various btgs we might even see a btg get thrown in with an electronic warfare outfit or or a very large high level a high altitude sam site or even maybe a ballistic missile site so sometimes this can this can vary so much that you can't even really discern the original uh the original btg so just keep that in mind when we're talking about these kinds of units this is kind at you can't even really discern the original uh the original btg so just keep that in mind when we're talking about these kinds of units this is kind of the baseline that we're working with all right so jumping to the map to show a kind of overall projection of the russian forces that are currently deployed now i feel the need as many intel analysts uh do feel sometimes to put a lot of caveats on what i'm about to show because uh this is very very significant if this is in fact true uh the units that i'm about to show are from ukrainian estimates that are as of november but i'll show you the product they came from here in just a second but these ukrainian estimates look something like this now for those of you who are familiar with military structures and the operational terms and graphics this slide should make you slightly queasy because that's a lot of men that is an extremely large amount of forces that are spread all the way around ukraine now again i do want to kind of caveat again that much of that comes from this particular slide that has been widely circulated by um your average ocean analyst to your mainstream media alike this slide was taken from a larger series of slid lide that has been widely circulated by um your average ocean analyst to your mainstream media alike this slide was taken from a larger series of slides from the ukrainian government as of last november and it's a combination of actual units and projected units so this is kind of this might be a little bit misleading because we can't actually sit here and independently verify that all of these armies and and brigades and divisions are where they are right we can't verify that so this is of course again coming from the ukrainians now i should also mention that if there's anybody who has the motive to overestimate russia's you know forces that are on their border it would be ukraine right um because so so there is an element of well how much do you trust ukrainian intelligence and i don't know from my very very limited experience working in this kind of area and doing a lot of research from what i've been able to tell the ukrainian intelligence is pretty spot on and it's very close to what u.s intelligence estimates are so sorry i can't give you more than just a hey trust the ukrainian intelligence but but unfortunately our own internal estimates are actually quite a bit worse so thi give you more than just a hey trust the ukrainian intelligence but but unfortunately our own internal estimates are actually quite a bit worse so this is what we have estimated being used in the theater within at least the next couple of weeks some of this is confirmed these units are confirmed to be in this locations other places other units are not so we'll get into this when we talk about actual when we go to each front here in just a minute but right now the official us government estimates that have been either leaked or intentionally released to the press are that roughly 60 btgs are right now on the border or are maneuvering to the border uh with ukraine either in belarus or you or russia proper now from what we've been able to tell that's a very low ball estimate we've seen ukrainian sources and a lot of other open source sources thinking that maybe that number is around 80. so we're talking maybe 60 to 80 btgs online right now now as far as what's the magic number a lot of people in the intel world think that the magic number is 100 so when russia gets about 100 btgs online and and ready to roll that's when they're going to start rolling across the countryside but again t r is 100 so when russia gets about 100 btgs online and and ready to roll that's when they're going to start rolling across the countryside but again that's just speculation although a lot of this is just guess work when it comes to the a lot of the intel work that's being done by us and by others as well some of the big dog additions uh that the ukrainian slides and the ukrainian intelligence products have not had but we have observed being in the area roughly in these positions actually are the s 400 ada detachments and battalions now this is a big deal these are very high level very sophisticated surface-to-air missile systems and that's roughly where they're located but again we can talk more about that when we get into it a little bit later we also as of this morning we're able to confirm one uh bm27 oregon mrls battalion being in that area maybe a division i don't really know just yet but i guess we'll have to see and then also in addition to that we also have the russian government actually doing us a favor and confirming that they are sending 25 su-35 fighter aircraft and all related support equipment and vehicles to belarus in that deployment now it is important to note tha hey are sending 25 su-35 fighter aircraft and all related support equipment and vehicles to belarus in that deployment now it is important to note that russia and belarus have half-heartedly declared that they are simply conducting a training exercise that's the reason for all of this deployment and i say that that's a half-hearted defense because that excuse is almost certainly a joke honestly because most of the deployments that have been confirmed by local sources have not been anywhere near the declared training areas for this exercise right and most of the units that have been observed are not officially a part of these so-called exercises so it's kind of a farce to say that this is an exercise that's kind of a half-hearted attempt so the softball assessment is that of course russia and belarus are using this exercise as an excuse to get men and equipment closer and closer to the border without nato doing too much we're also hearing rumors via the social media accounts of russian soldiers that are actually being deployed for this that russia has left their conscripts behind so they will not be taking part in these quote unquote exercises right now this is a big deal because co that russia has left their conscripts behind so they will not be taking part in these quote unquote exercises right now this is a big deal because conscripts are a really large part of russian military doctrine russia a while back after the fallout soviet union wanted to go with a more volunteer they wanted to go with an all-volunteer army but that wasn't possible not enough people were volunteering for military service um because you know the russian military is kind of a um it's a very tough organization i should say that and uh it's not very popular people didn't really want to join it so russia has kind of had to go with this hybrid hybrid sphere of uh having volunteers uh run a lot of the more sophisticated equipment and be in more of the elite units whereas conscripts being deployed as basically um just support roles and things like that now you'd think that it would be the other way around you'd think that the conscripts would be basically cannon fodder well that's not that's not the way it's worked out because the political leadership in russia vladimir putin specifically has been very hyper attentive to this to make sure that the russian people the russian public doesn't eadership in russia vladimir putin specifically has been very hyper attentive to this to make sure that the russian people the russian public doesn't they they really the russian public really does not like it when conscripts get killed in action so it looks much better in the papers if if you know any combat deaths that are seen are from volunteers so that's something that the russian government has most certainly been hyper attentive too but again they've left their conscripts behind for this deployment which points even more to this not being a training exercise because if it was a training exercise you'd bring your conscripts along but you don't want your conscripts to get killed in any frontline fighting because that just brings morale down within russia all right so let's talk scheme of maneuver for a bit uh the general theory of maneuver is going to be as follows most and and this is not our assessment this is really just a culmination of assessments from a lot of different organizations and people who have been talking about ukraine for a very long time there are a lot of assumptions being made about the russian way of war and what's going to be done and whatnot i'm just go kraine for a very long time there are a lot of assumptions being made about the russian way of war and what's going to be done and whatnot i'm just going to give you the very broad brush strokes of of what is roughly the theory as to what's going to happen most people think that there's going to be a northern and southern push along several fronts so and this this can happen in different orders but most likely we're going to see a push from the east to the deneba river really early on in conjunction with a push from the south up through crimea we're also expecting a push from the north through kharkiv all the way down and also a concerted push for kiev additionally forces uh stationed in moldova in the essentially what's a russian puppet state they can provide supporting roles that can provide locations for staging uh things like radar and electronic warfare and stuff like that we're not really going to see too many troops being deployed from moldova or too many russian troops being staged there but this will be yet another front that the ukrainians will have to fight on if it comes to that my guess is they're probably going to hold off on using moldova as a base until they see how the ukrainians will have to fight on if it comes to that my guess is they're probably going to hold off on using moldova as a base until they see how the rest of this goes additionally from the from the northwest we're going to see most likely a lot of airborne units being staged in belarus for taking out or securing various targets again airborne's mission especially the russian concept is to land in areas without transiting over the land right so parachute down into areas to hold and secure a specific objective until the land forces can come and and support that role as well so we might see airborne units being used all over ukraine to secure various airfields there's a lot of airfields in the west that are still being used so we might see that occur as a way to prevent the ukrainian air force what's left of it from ever getting off the ground in the first place we're also going to see significant dominance in the form of aerial superiority being used to blanket ukraine to make sure that not even a paper airplane gets off the ground so moving down to the specific eastern front as we see it right now this is the incursion zone this is uh where the invasion has already occurred li d so moving down to the specific eastern front as we see it right now this is the incursion zone this is uh where the invasion has already occurred like i mentioned donetsk the donbass area luhansk really is where the front line is you can see that red line that shows where the current front line is as of well right now now we have uh ew platforms being templated again i should mention this is all speculative we don't really know where these ew units are but it will be fairly easy to find them because the russians have been very very very instrumental in developing the field of electronic warfare the russians have put a lot of time and effort into developing out their electronic warfare capabilities and using that in war and we have seen ew units very large significant ew units being used in years past roughly where these units are templated now so we're just going to assume that they're there for now and once we get a better location for it we'll update you there as far as other units goes we don't really have any specific locations just yet but again we'll update you on that moving down to the crimean front the southern front this is of course where the crimean again the crimean just yet but again we'll update you on that moving down to the crimean front the southern front this is of course where the crimean again the crimean incursion slash invasion has already occurred now let's talk amphibious stuff for a minute now the six ships that are inbound from the baltic and slash north north sea fleets they are most likely a lot of people are thinking that odessa is going to be a major target odessa is a major port town significant um significant cargo offloading capacity in odessa it will be a great place for an amphibious landing somewhere around there so that they can use those amphibious troops to hold the city for the crimean uh soldiers to come across and uh take that as well uh and support that so i i don't know if that's going to be the goal i think that it's it's kind of who knows this might be all trickery we might see them being dropped up uh in the aids of uplands you never really know until it happens i suppose remember the russians are masters of of military deception they call it maskarovka right so they like the chinese are very instrumental in the field of military deception the russians are as well once we get a better idea of where the the sh they like the chinese are very instrumental in the field of military deception the russians are as well once we get a better idea of where the the ships are going to be located we'll template them there um they're not obviously they're not there yet they're not in the black sea yet they just passed through the english channel this morning so again we'll we'll figure that out once once uh once we figure out where they're going they might stop at sylvester poll uh in crimea and unload some troops we don't really know if they've troops have been unloaded already it would be kind of an unpleasant journey if these guys were already loaded on board and they're you know sailing halfway around the world just to get to this location but i guess we'll see how that how that works out in either case we'll have pictures of these guys going through the turkish straits to get up to the black sea anyway moving up to the northeastern front we don't really have too much templated just yet this is kind of a blank map we'll have to wait and see where these units actually pop up but i can tell you that most of the staging activity that we have seen either people recording videos of trains unloading or ese units actually pop up but i can tell you that most of the staging activity that we have seen either people recording videos of trains unloading or offloading or or stuff like that that's in going to be in bryansk so that's where a significant portion of troops are being staged presumably for the northern thrust for kiev and sidestepping a little bit to cover the belarussian border this is the northwestern front like i mentioned significant more intelligence on this front so far because we've been able to just pick up a lot more uh information from bilateral media so the first big addition is really the first mrls unit that we have seen move really close to the border really there's somewhere in the gomella region we haven't been able to specifically geo-locate them down to a specific lat long yet but we were able to identify them as the 165th artillery brigade so that's the that's the flash that we'll use on them for now there's also at least one uh btg in the town of yeltzk belarus a local tv station actually went out and interviewed the guys so um we'll have to follow back up on that but that is very very close uh to the ukrainian border so that's all we have for the fronts t ewed the guys so um we'll have to follow back up on that but that is very very close uh to the ukrainian border so that's all we have for the fronts this time we'll continue using this format depending on how things go again this may all be a farce we might just be fooled again and russia decides to pull out and not launch the invasion this time due to the uh weather who knows but i whatever happens we'll uh we'll let you know what goes on so again thank you for tuning in and we will see you next time and as always fight in the shade